Our analysis of the first 76 constituencies officially declared by the Ghana election commission shows an average swing to the opposition NDC of 6.36% compared to the 2004 election. If that average swing is projected across the remaining constituencies, the Presidential election result would be:
Nana Akuffo Addo NPP 49.27%
John Atta Mills NDC 47.82%
The other parties would have 2.88% between them. No candidate having obtained an overall majority, the two leading candidates would enter a second round.
Remember this is a projection based on swing. In terms of actual votes cast, Nana Akuffo Addo currently has 50.04%. But the remaining constituencies on balance have historically very slightly favoured the NDC taken together.
To show how our projection has moved as more results have come in:
After 55 constituencies declared projection was:
Mills 48.99%
Akuffo Addo 48.3%
After 66 constitutencies declared
Mills 48.38%
Akuffo Addo 48.71%
After 76 constituencies declared
Mills 47.82%
Akuffo Addo 49.27%
The narrowness of range of movement in the projection gives us confidence in its forecasting ability, and mathematically the range of movement should now diminish barring results well out of line with what has gone before.
A word of caution. This election is different to those of 2000 and 2004, in which there were fairly uniform swings to the NPP across the country. This election has wild regional variation in the rate of swing, with the NDC doing spectacularly well in some of the coastal areas of Central and Western regions. But to win outright Mills needs an overll swing of 10.3% – a very hard task. Paradoxically it is made harder because the NDC has historically done so well in Volta Region there is no room for it to pick up many more votes there, while the NPP is suffering a swing of some 6% against it in its strongholds – well below what Mills needs to win. Meanwhile the NPP has held its own well in the North.
But the NDC is exceeding the 10% target in some parts of Greater Accra, and the large number of constituencies there yet to declare could benefit Mills. This is an extremely exciting election.
It is also being conducted in a fair and orderly manner with a lot of voter enthusiasm. Yet it is being widely ignored in the Western media, which only wants to carry bad news about Africa.
Joy FM is the vest source for Ghana election watchers. Unfortunately they have not yet given many percentages for the current elections, so we are working these and the swings out on my overworked calculator.
http://elections.myjoyonline.com/elections/2008/
STOP PRESS projection after 92 constituencies with average swing of 5.9% to NDC:
Nana Akuffo Addo 49.50
John Atta Mills 47.59
I am now prepared to go with that as a firm prediction.
Craig, that's an impressive job of projection! It is a shame though that no candidate will have 50% +1, making a runoff necessary. Elections are expensive affairs to run and it would have been nice to not have to go through the process again. I hope your 49.50% prediction is just a wee bit off and that Akuffo Addo will sneak in by a whisker!
Thanks for the information. You are absolutely right that western media have largely ignored rather than highlight it to encourage troubled countries in this region to emulate.
In all account NDC has done an incredible job to come a long way. NPP is insensitive to the economic plight of orderly Ghanaians and should not be given another term in office. A change is good for Ghana. Ghana economy needs to jump start on new platform with fresh ideas, new vision and better strategy to prop up the education system in the country. NPP economic model lack some vital substance to stimulate economic activity in country. NDC is the best choice and I wish them well in OSU Castle.
i think uncle atta has done a good job this term around.this shows that npp must do alot of home work,coz there re lapses in their adminstration has ghanaians have clearly prove that due to the recent election.
A very intelligent en inpartial posting Kwame.
this should serve as alesson to the NPP people and all the leaders that they shouldn't take things for granted. Nana didn't campagned at Central region an it has gone against Him. thank GOd we are still on track.
but Ghana should know that is not only Ghana that is passing through financial difficulties but rather the whole world even USA. moreover, this what the NPP should let the people of Ghana know since the people are complaining about hardship.
WITH GOD NPP SHALL SURELYWIN AMEN!!!
PHILIP ACHEAMPONG
Atta Mills all the way,long live ghana long live atta mills and the NDC.The NPP bad goveners has put ghana this ecomoy problems,we need a change,ghanaians are crying for a change.LONG LIVE GHANA
please u people should announce de presidential result in a hurry .
Craig, you're a genius! Your prediction of a 49.50% victory for Akuffo Addo looks like it will stand. Currently I think he is at 49.70 with 110 constituencies reporting. I am amazed that you can make such accurate projections with little data and a hand-held calculator!:) Too bad that there will have to be a runoff. Elections are expensive affairs. Also, with the disturbing and unsubstantiated pronouncements of foul play coming out of the NDC camp, it is not clear that a runoff will be an altogether peaceful event. I urge the NDC leadership to accept its impending loss with grace and to stop riling its supporters with false accusations of fraud.
just want to say the best man won, he is going to do Ghana really good so wish Mr.Nana Akuffo Addo the best and also he is a nice uncle to me and i can say how proud i am of him and we should all come together us one and pray for him so that God may help me to lead us
I do agree with a change but not where, to arrest and kill members of opposition.
Craig,
You should be a shame of yourself. When you were in Ghana you oppose everything NDC did. Thanks to you we have NOPP government who is corrupt, drugs and you name it. Shame on you
Indeed, Craig, you're a genius because the final result closely mirrors your predictions. However, I don't agree with Kwame that the NPP has been generally insensitive to the needs of the electorate. The party has pursued a strong socio-economic agenda — health insurance, public transit, school feeding programme etc. As well, unlike the NDC, the NPP has not sacrificed human rights in the name of 'progress,' and the country enjoys extensive media freedoms, making it possible to publicly analyse and critique state policies, and limiting the effect of state propaganda.
The NPP though has itself to blame for its losses in the elections. My rather inadequate hypothesis is that the party focused on consolidating economic power for the middle class, but then failed to consolidate political power to the extent that the party would be the default party for Ghanaians. In this regard, the NPP failed to emphasise over the past eight years, the very reasons for which Ghanaians voted out the NDC in 2000 — poor human rights etc. The NDC's conduct to date suggests it has not disavowed the violent ideology that was common to the Rawlings regimes from 1979 to 2000. That Rawlings was on the campaign platform for the NDC possibly more than the party's flagbearing duo of Mills and Mahama speaks volumes of this, not to mention the party's continued veneration of the AFRC and PNDC coups that led to the perpetration of gross human rights abuses in Ghana.
At any event, Ghanaians should be extremely proud of themselves for collectively conducting a relatively violence-free election. Hopefully, the run-off will be even better!!!!
I am not happy with this scond round election at all .oh ghanaian ! do not dia,foroany political party and live your wife,your children and your family. Do not be silly to dia for any political party.
will it be good for a govt. to be in palament with minority. and how is it posible 4 opposition to have majority without wininig the election.