My last post mentioned that an advantage of statistical psephology is that it highlights anomalies as pointers to possible abuse.
I am concerned by some quite extraordinary figures of increased voting for the NDC in certain parts of Volta Region, which are difficult to believe can be genuine. This is particularly so as they occur in districts where there was no or negligible third party vote.
It is very hard to believe that in Hohoe South, for example, the NDC managed to increase its vote by a full 50% after the first round three weeks ago. Increases of 20 to 25% in Anlo and Avenor also seem extraordinary and out of line with what is happening in general.
These large apparent increases in voter interest have resulted in apparent voter turnouts in excess of 90%. There is a natural friction on election registers, due to death, people moving, being ill or away at election time, forgetting or not wanting to vote, etc. Voting levels in the areas mentioned are apparently well above the average for Ghana and at levels I am not sure I believe to be practical – another flash of a warning signal.
Further Projection
With 135 constituency swings now calculated, a run of very large swings to Mills has increased his projected majority ti 33,000.
what about the 99%+ in some constituencies in Kumasi, the stronghold of the npp. these figures raised lots of eyebrows even among level headed npp supporters . you should have talked about that to paint a fair pictures of the situation on the ground and not seem to betilting towarsds the npp. you are very much aware of how difficult it will be an opposition party in africa to rig an election.
Craig, i tend to disagree with what i just finished reading.If that is your opinion on the Volta Region, fine.On the average that is not correct, considering the fact that, massive rigging has been complained about in the Ashanti Region as well.
I don't want to believe that you're taking sides with any Political Party and that, you're currently here in Ghana monitoring events or doing so from where ever you are.
Craig, I would want to believe that you're a neutral and honest person. However, to claim that the votes in the Volta Region were not credible when outrageous figures have been produced by Akufo-Addo and the NPP from the Ashanti Region shows that you're,probably, not as neutral and honest as I thought.
Both the NDC and the NPP have protested against the results from the Ashanti and Volta Regions respectively and one would have thought that you would have presented events from both sides instead of seeking to portray the Volta Region's results as the only disputable result.
As per Electoral Commissioner, Kwadwo Afari-Gyan, the NDC produced evidence of vote rigging in the Ashanti region but the NPP did not produce any evidence to support its claims. Just the next morning after the EC's announcement, the NPP's Gabriel Otchere-Darko was on JOY FM saying that they were not even disputing the figures from the Volta Region but rather complaining about the alleged intimidation and harassment of NPP agents in the region.
So there you have it Craig. If you're really in Ghana at the moment, or even just writing from afar, I believe you've either seen or heard that what you're reporting of the Volta Region is equally applicable to the Ashanti Region and, dare I say, on an even greater scale. You're certainly doing a great job and I commend you for that but for the sake of truth and fairness, paint the whole picture and don't leave it this distorted.