I argue urgently that we Lib Dems should not enter into any formal pact with anyone, but should remain in opposition to a minority Conservative and Unionist government.
I won’t pretend that last night was not horribly disappointing, as First Past The Post radically distorted our representation as usual. I went through this disappointment before, in February 1974 , in the election that first brought me in to political activity. Then, there was an even greater buzz about Jeremy Thorpe than there has been about Nick Clegg – and Thorpe was a spectacularly charismatic figure.
Third party politics really had seemed utterly dead in the 1950’s and 1960’s. Thorpe had inherited a parliamentary party that really could squeeze into a taxi, and Thorpe’s style, underpinned by Jo Grimond’s genuine radicalism, was an achievement more stunning than anything the Liberals or Lib Dems have managed since. It seemed to represent a re-ordering of the political system to accommodate the radical social changes of the 1960’s (and remember it was Liberal MP David Steel’s private member’s bill which liberalised abortion).
When Thorpe’s Liberal Party’s opinion polls rating during the first 1974 campaign hit the 23% level the Lib Dems gained yesterday, that was a quadrupling of support. When the actual percentage share at the ballot was 19.3% it was a huge letdown – and incredibly, 19.3% gave the Liberals just 14 seats – probably the most infamous result FTPT has ever delivered. 19.3% of the vote for 2.3% of the seats!!
That election morning was worse than this one. I had, age 15, worked almost every single non-school hour for 4 months leading up to the election, and had not slept for 96 hours, being out delivering leaflets. I shall never forget the burning sense of injustice.
The second election in October 1974 led to the Lib-Lab pact, which actually was highly succesful for three years in rescuing a near Greek economic situation. But the Liberals got no credit for it. The “Winter of Discontent” actually occurred after the Liberals withdrew from the Lib-Lab pact, but nonetheless the Liberals were swept backwards by Thatcherism in 1979.
That could easily repeat now. A Lib-Lab pact to claw back the dire economic situation would almost certainly be followed in time by a massive Tory backlash for keeping New Lab in power and losses of Lib Dems seats.
On the other hand, we have the scenario I blogged as tempting before yesterday’s vote:
a Cameron administration, with a tiny majority, propped up by some Northern Irish bigots, would inflict such pain on the majority of our society that, before falling after a few years, they would put the Tories out for a generation at least.
In so doing, they would greatly enhance the cause of Scottish and Welsh independence, and with the Lib Dems the second most popular party and the challenger in the large majority of Tory seats, the Tory demise would sweep in a radical change in more promising circumstances.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2010/05/crisis_is_a_gre.html#comments
I rejected this scenario in favour of a good Lib Dem performance yesterday – but given the actual result, I believe the above is the best scenario we have. Let the Tories run a minority administration with unpleasant allies, restraining their excesses. In the next general election the Lib Dems will poised nationally to pick up a huge bonanza of Tory seats. Cameron will meantime be in the minority government position that killed Callaghan and Major electorally. But he will also face the problem that the electorate always punish anyone who inflicts an unnecessary election on them.
So play it long and cool. Resist the tempations of instant power and ministerial limousines, and especially resist blandishments of referenda on electoral reform in which the entire Murdoch and Tory media empires will again be deployed against us to devastating effect.
The talk in the supermarket today was of complete delight that the Green Party candidate had secured Brighton Pavillion.
I was in control of the shopping trolley which was heavily loaded up with half price Coca-Cola…
On the way out my Wife stopped and went through her purse to give all her change to the old RAF Spitfire Pilot.
He proudly stuck his badge over her left breast.
After I had loaded up the car, I went back to him and gave him my change.
He proudly stuck his badge over my left breast.
Tony
Lots of very well-paid men in suits talking earnestly on my tv. Just told us that the electorate don’t get to decide a government in a hung parliament; parliament does.
So that’s OK. We can all give up now. Move along, move along, get back to your jobs, nothing to see here…
Thinking rather wistfully of the election billboards which were subvertised with the legend “Our dreams don’t fit on your ballots”.
Posted by: MJ at May 7, 2010 5:35 PM
How about, Rothschild and Rockefeller along with a few other “drivers”?
Same old cabal. I sincerely hope Ron Paul gets his way in opening the books on the Federal Reserve but somehow I think a plane crash is more likely.
Plus ca change…
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-diplomats-breathe-sigh-of-relief-at-clegg-s-poor-poll-showing-1.288924
“But Israel is not without stalwart friends in the Conservative party. Foremost among them the party’s leading ideologue, Michael Gove. Some of the views expressed in his speeches and opinion articles over the past few years would put the mainstream Likud to shame.”
!!!
oh, there’s this, which monbiot’s promoting:
http://www.takebackparliament.com/
ScouseBilly: yes, it’s certainly a team effort but Nat seems to be in charge of the UK leg. Agree about Paul’s efforts to audit the Fed but have this funny feeling that it would come up squeaky clean. It will surely have been fixing the books in case of such an eventuality.
“every decision is a compromise”
Politics is inherently about compromise.
The electoral system that the Lib Dems (and almost all other British PR advocates) advocate is STV, not a list system like the European elections. This is a preferential system, in which voters list candidates (not parties) in the order of their preferences. Once votes are cast the election proceeds as a series of run-offs with the least supported candidate being eliminated each time and their votes transferred to the next highest preference until the required number of candidates have unassailable leads. This will punish candidates most people dislike, e.g. BNP, as most people’s votes will go to anyone who can beat the BNP.
Under STV I expect the BNP to get zero seats.
There’s a People’s Parliament in Parliament Square – been there since Saturday 1st.
There’s a Fair Voting demo in Trafalgar Square 2:00 PM Saturday 8th.
38 Degrees have a “What’s Next” page:
http://labs.38degrees.org.uk/content/election-what-next
Actually, I agree with eddie (zounds!) at 0427. I think Labour’s done very well, considering everything. They (from their point-of-view) would be best sitting in Opposition for a few years. The Lib Dems would be fools to enter a coalition with the Tories. They would be eaten alive.
Amk,
thanks for highlighting the superiority of STV over the List System.
technicolour, Clark, others – “It’s hardly ‘ultra-left mythologising’ to speculate that some Conservatives would not have cared two hoots if poor people were forced off the electoral roll by the poll tax. It was a consequence which might easily have been anticipated, in fact.”
To cynically see a benefit from a peculiar side-effect is different from plotting to bring it about.
What I saw, then – a lot of people disenfranchised themselves groundlessly, while insisting in the face of the evidence that they were victims of a plot to make them do so.
I was in north Leeds. The Council informed us that the decision whether to take names off the electoral register was up to the Councils, and they’d taken a clear decision not to. I saw this happen, in that my name was on the register, but by various happenstance not known to the housing/rates depts. – and the poll-tax hassle-letters were coming through the letterbox addressed to “the Occupier”, and demanding to know my name. So they hadn’t taken it from other lists. “Look”, I said to people, “This is actual evidence that they are _not_ taking names from the register”.
I don’t think I changed one mind, people carried on insisting that they had to let their names drop off the register because it was all a plot to make them do so in order to avoid paying the polltax. Being a local decision, it may have been different elsewhere, but under that council, people did it to themselves.
Posted by: MJ at May 7, 2010 5:57 PM
Yep. Worth checking Mrs Clegg’s firm, DLA Piper.
It’s alleged that they had power of attorney over the Boeing Corporation whilst they were moving HQ from Seattle to Chicago. When was that? Oh, yeah, Sep. 2001.
The so called “magic circle” of city law firms is worthy of investigation (re. N.W. Ontario).
Richard Robinson at May 7, 2010 6:02 PM
I still have outstanding (poll tax) CCJ’s – in a variant spelling of my name – wankers!!
Richard Robinson,
“The Council informed us that the decision whether to take names off the electoral register was up to the Councils, and they’d taken a clear decision not to”.
See? It wasn’t good enough. There should have been *no option* to remove voters from the list because to do so is anti-democratic.
To cynically see a benefit from a peculiar side-effect is different from plotting to bring it about.
Agreed, and interesting, Richard. I don’t think the poll tax was just a cover for forcing people off the register. I don’t think Clark did either (? Clark?)
Also, good point, Clark.
Technicolour,
no, not a cover. But I suspect that some privately thought of it as a convenient side-effect. A bit like Tower Hamlets and Dame Tesco.
“and remember it was Liberal MP David Steel’s private member’s bill which liberalised abortion”
Now you can’t have it both ways.
Happy girls give birth to happy children, which grow to become happy voters for happy parties. Whereas miserable girls give birth to miserable children that grow to become miserable voters.
So you see, you are the authors of your own downfall, you flushed your core vote down the pan.
I’d have thought that Brown would have offered Clegg STV PR right away if he had any sense – and that Clegg would have accepted.
However I see your point Craig. Whoever is in government next will be blamed for the public spending cuts that are coming – though i’d prefer the Lib Dems were there to ensure the savings are made the right way (e.g no upgrade to Trident, end subsidies for arms exports, crack down on tax havens, raise tax on billionaires and multinationals, phase out or renegotiate PFIs and PPPs, bring the troops home from Afghanistan) rather than by the big cuts in public sector employment Labour (and even more so the Conservatives) are planning. Sadly Clegg hasn’t committed to bringing the troops home, nor to higher taxes on big firms and billionaires, nor to scrapping PFIs or PPPs any more than the other two party leaders have.
Dictators like Karimov rig elections such that they appear to have overwhelming support. Karzai rigged his elections such that there were more votes than voters! Credibility suffers. Over here we’re more subtle; a multitude of smaller effects usually achieve the desired result:
# Use a voting system that scares the majority into sticking with the main parties, or disillusions them about voting altogether,
# Count the votes by constituencies, thus eliminating minority representation,
# Make deals with the Mainstream Media to swing opinion in the desired direction, and discredit tactical voting,
# A bit of “treating”,
# A bit of postal ballot fraud,
# etc.
Clever, init? Nothing glaringly obvious to get people up in arms, keeps the rif-raf off the streets, convinces a big enough majority that “we live in a democracy”.
But this time it’s failed…
Tony,
You are wrong on some points. Why is parenting outsourced now ? because we live in a must have society, must have a nice car must have a nice house, must have the latest stuff… so in order to do that both parents work, and borrow and work to pay the debts. We outsource pareting not to stay above the poverty line, but so that we can have the things that in reality we dont need. Poverty in this country is not real poverty – I have seen real poverty and I can assure you that it is not to be found in the UK. I agree there are people who dont have much money, who struggle every month to pay the bills and have to make tough choices, but poverty ? No sorry. Can someone tell me the last time we had a famine because we couldnt afford food ? In fact has anyone died of starvation recently ? (I genuinely ask.. i dont know the answer) Is any one in the UK without clean safe drinking water ? Please dont confuse poverty with not having much, there is a MASSIVE difference.
In the last 30 years we have seen the gradual destruction of society, a destruction that suits the politicians well, and both the conservatives and Labour have done this. Our lack of society is not to do with people working, but to do with that great big flashing box in the corner of every front room, filling your head with desires for stuff you cannot afford, or imaginary life styles that are not achievable. We dont talk to each other any more.. we got home turn on the opiate of the masses and watch the flickering screen wondering why society is so rubbish. And our leaders use its power to fill our heads with fear, fear of each other (hoodies) fear of anyone who is different to us and then use that imaginary fear to take away your liberty, and liberty dies without so much as a whimper. To start wars in the name of national security that have nothing to do with national security and everything to do with stealing another countries rescources.
The “thinking” class is getting fewer, thankfully there are places like this and people like craig who will stick there heads above the parapet and not be afraid to exchange ideas and philosopys.
I congratulate every one who reads this blog, wether i agree with you are not matters not one jot…. the fact is that you can think for yourself. Never let go of that liberty, because they will try and take it away one day.
Just cos your not paranoid… doesnt mean they are not out to get you.
Everything I have posted over the past 24 hours or so is true and hopefully makes sense.
Of course truth is only in the eye of the beholder, but what I wrote was as close to the truth as I could write.
I now have to have a session on my guitar which I am trying to learn how to play.
Yes I did buy rather a large number of cans of coca-cola (the original – without any Aspartame rat poison)
I also bought 8 cans of beer, and I have drunk no alcohol since Monday night.
Please ignore any manic rubbish, that I may write after playing the entire guitar piece of Enter Sandman very slowly and trying to get the palm suppressed bit a bit better.
Its a kind of throbbing sound that is very difficult to get right when you are as old as me.
I will try and not post rubbish, and there is no way that I will play on stage until I think I can do it reasonably well.
You may think – Why is This Old Fart Trying To Play Guitar at his Age?
Well I like learning New Things That Are Incredibly Difficult.
Goodnight
God Bless,
Tony
CRAIG WRITES: “…What the Tories really are and want is quite objectionable enough, without your having to morph them into fascists. This ultra left mythologising is hopeless.”
Not so! More right-wing mythologising.
The Tories supported plenty of fascist regimes. Suharto of Indonesia, for instance, one of the most brutal dictators of the 20th century, the CIA wrote – a bit rich given the U.S. helped put him in power (to steal the country’s resources). Thatcher called Suharto, “One of our very best and most valuable friends.” Thatcher’s friend, with UK and US help, slaughtered over 1.2 million people.
From a John Pilger interview with Alan Clark (Clark supplied Suharto with military weapons):
Pilger: “Did it bother you personally that you were causing such mayhem and human suffering?”
Clark: “No, not in the slightest, it never entered my head.”
Pilger: “I ask the question because I read you are a vegetarian and are seriously concerned with the way animals are killed.”
Clark: “Yeah?”
Pilger: “Doesn’t that concern extend to humans?”
Clark: “Curiously not.”
Then there’s Augusto Pinochet of Chile – plenty of Tories supported him! – Thatcher even had tea with the dictator.
If the Tories could, they’d have a dictatorship here, but they can’t get one, so they take it out on the poorest in society, instead – that gives them some pleasure!
These are true PSYCHOPATHS who have no conscience, no morals, no shame, and NOTHING is beyond them – NOTHING!
What they can get away, though, is another matter.
get real man. The country needs a strong government to deal with the mess it is in, and that includes issues like troops in Afghanistan.
Liberalism is deply rooted in this country. Better that than be ruled by a cabal of Scottish socialists. Give Clegg a chance to do something different!
The other Richard.
Yes you are correct the cons have supported some pretty nasty people…. so have labour, you can read an aweful lot about that on this blog. Would the libDems do it different ? Probably not. Global politics being what it is.
Politics is no longer about serving the people, its about grabbing as much power as possible and hanging onto it for as long as possible. Sad but true.
Career politicians should be banned.
To put the same point more directly — is there any reason why the Tory party should not just pay the number of elected members of Parliament that they require to change affiliation and join the Conservative Party?
I see Andrew Dismore (Hendon Con) got the chop but can’t believe that Nadine Dorries (Mid Beds Con)got in again.
Craig – I don’t know why you think I believe it better to prop up a bunch of war criminals. If you looked at my blog on the election you’d see that I think this is wrong. I think that Cameron should be left to govern as a minority government, so that only legislation which gets sufficient parliamentary support can pass. The elements on his speech in favour of the war in Afghanistan and Trident and against immigration clearly run counter to liberal, if not Lib Dem aims. If the tories want to get these measures through, they should do so with Labour support rather than expecting the Lib Dems to follow them into the lobby.
Like many people in this country, I voted without enthusiasm for the least bad option. Perhaps the leaders, the parties and the people need to promote a more honest debate than they have yet – certain areas were noticeably off limits in every debate (local and national) that I saw.
The difference between Ozzy Osbourne, Tony Blair and me goes something like this…
Even I can play Iron Man, but it is a bit tough on the fingers – Tony Iommi used stubs on his because he cut the tips off at work…
Meanwhile whilst I and over a Million other People are Marching to London BEFORE The Iraq War
The Radio is Playing Black Sabbath
WAR PIGS
http://www.contactmusic.com/new/xmlfeed.nsf/story/ozzy-upset-with-tony-blairs-iron-man-challenge
“OZZY OSBOURNE was far from impressed with British Prime Minister TONY BLAIR during a recent meeting – because the politician seemed more interested in picking up music tips than solving the world’s problems.
The rocker was left speechless when Blair turned to him during a high-powered Downing Street party and wanted to talk about BLACK SABBATH classic IRON MAN.
Ozzy says, “He told me he used to be in a band and I felt like saying, ‘You should have stayed.’
“All this Iraq thing’s going on and I was amazed that he turned round to me and said, ‘I could never quite understand how to get the riff to Iron Man.’
“I’m going, ‘Kids are dying, people are getting blown up and you’re talking to me about f**king Iron Man.'”
Tony
mary: I’m pretty sure Dismore was Lab, not Con. Wasn’t he the chairman of the JCHR committee that Craig addressed last year?