Seldom has so much PR hype been given to anything as meaningless as Obama’s US Defence Review. There will be no drop in US military spending, just a smaller increase than previously proposed. The move to less grunts and more zapping from drones and eventually satellites has been underway for years and is simple continuation of technological development. The doctrine of a “right” to intervene anywhere in the World has not changed. The rhetoric is stepped up on a new – and totally pointless – Cold War with China that will keep the military-industrial complex in its dominant position to exploit US society for the next half century. In short, nothing has changed.
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Yes, US is now going to be more concentrated on Pacific and on states that surround China with excludes Europe. In the new Cold War China might be more successful than USSR if it keeps increasing its military capacity proportionately to its economic development. For US this new Cold War will be more challenging as China unlike USSR is also turning more and more into capitalist society. China is investing its money and not simply supporting pro-China regimes.
Yes, but of course the key point is also that China is not any military threat to the US – or to anyone, much.
“Yes, but of course the key point is also that China is not any military threat to the US – or to anyone, much.”
Presumably unlike Iraq, or perhaps Vietnam?
Yes, Mr Murray not at the moment. So far ‘Peaceful Rise’ concept is working quite well. But China with over 1 billion citizens, with very poor natural recourses, with very strong and modern army and navy (in very feasible future), with proportionately weak neighbours (includes even Russia as its Eastern regions are comparatively under-populated and under resourced), with big ambitions might turn into something quite different from China today.
The reductions in the defence budget are a kind of “We feel your pain” gesture, whilst the unemployment is rising, house repossessions are rising, incomes levels decreasing, and the world going to hell in a basket, then this 7~8 percent reduction over ten years is kind of atonement for all the suffering of the “hamburgermunching flag waving patriots”.
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Although US having exhausted the array of threats form every source, now finds the only credible source of threats left to be from China, and or the outer-space marauding aliens, who want to come over here and ravish our women, take our wares, and enslave us in their farms and work houses, and make us all speak “Shariaa” because Osama Bin Al Qaeda had sent them a fatwa, and the map of how to find their way to Planet Earth!
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Lets face it, US cannot exist without high octane fearmongering. There is way too much money to be made out of killing people than any other business model, why pay when you cam take it?
The main reason for so much puff and bluster on this non-event is – imho – cover for the much bigger recent story, the National Defense Authorization Act. The ACLU, Amnesty, every constitutional lawyer (just about, there’ll always be an exception) thinks this is horrendous.
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It gives the US the right to detain anyone, from any country, indefinitely without charge. They can pick up anyone from anywhere, International Law be damned. It was argued about, O’Bomber threatened to veto it, but he didn’t. It’s now law, and it’s hardly got a mention. Yet this nonsense about the defence review is safe to talk about, so it got approval for full coverage.
“Yes, but of course the key point is also that China is not any military threat to the US – or to anyone, much.”
The last part of this is false, at least if a democracy with 23 million people counts as ‘anyone much’ — just ask anyone from Taiwan, or read widely available information:
“China enacted a law today authorizing the use of force against Taiwan if it moves toward formal independence, codifying its long-standing threat to attack the island.” (Washington Post, 14th March 2005)
“Taiwanese experts have estimated that China currently has more than 1,600 missiles aimed at the island,” (Defense News, 20th May 2011).
China has also recently reiterated its claim to pretty much every island and almost all the oil exploration rights in the South China Sea, which is a threat to (at least) Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Japan (the latter since a significant amount of Japan’s trade is conducted via shipping through the South China Sea).
President Aquino of the Philippines said “China’s 9-dash line territorial claim over the entire South China Sea is against international laws, particularly the United National Convention of the Laws of the Sea”. In March 2010 PRC officials told US officials that they consider the South China Sea a “core interest” on par with Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. (Wikipedia article on Nine-dotted_line, citing Bloomberg news agency.)
For the left, liberals, and decent people in general, opposing US global hegemony need not and should not mean supporting Chinese regional hegemony (which Craig’s comment doesn’t) or being complacent about its possible consequences (which his comment certainly seems to).
I’m not suggesting that the US military has a legitimate role as a counterbalance to the Chinese forces, though (nor vice versa). East Asia still needs what it has needed for the last 60+ years: full respect from each country for its neighbours; regional structures akin to the ECHR, Council of Europe and eventually, perhaps, EU; and gradual demilitarisation as the tensions built up in the 1930s-1950s are eventually dissipated. Neither the US nor China shares this vision, unfortunately.
As much as most of us loved to live in ‘Imagine’ world this unfortunately contradicts our own human nature. I read once that over 5 thousands year of Human Civilisation there have only been less than 250 years of peace. All other time there have been wars. We might first start from liberating our souls and minds from religion as first step towards ‘Imagine’ world. Then get rid of national borders and finally respect each other like ourselves. Can we (humans) do it?
@Nick
Speaking from Taiwan, yes, you clearly have the facts on your side and Craig’s rather throwaway comment is regrettable.
Nick
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In very near future China will shape current world order. Taiwan will fall whether we (or Taiwanise) like it or not. China will dominate in South East Asia and there is nothing anyone (even US) can do about it. Nation with over 1 billion citizens, with economy that produces and supplies over 40% of world goods, with independent military technologies, with very central and consolidated and independent from its own citizens government is unstoppable in its rise. Unfortunately those nations that are closer to China will feel Chinese dominance first and that includes my native Uzbekistan.
It’s Obama’s rhetorical flourishes that annoy me, he’s so like Blair, a smooth-talking conman who is ready to sell anything… as long as the price is right.
The casual, blithe, assertion that the US is now thinking of confronting China, having “done” the Middle East, would be commical if it wasn’t grotesque, displaying a conceit and arrogance worthy of a rather childish Caesar firmly under the control of the legions and the leading families of Rome.
And what’s China supposed to do, China can hardly make itself disappear can it? China is where it is and it’s population is what it is. Now, after a couple of bad centuries it’s rapidly returning to its traditional role and status as the Middle Kingdom, which for various reasons cannot be ignored, mostly to do with its huge size and economic potential. This is, and for most of history, has been it’s natural position, and this is what it’s returning to. So it isn’t so much that China is rising, but returning after a period of unatural decline possibly the result of Western imperialist intervention.
Historically, for many centuries, China has had a very stable and defensive foreign policy, for obvious reasons, the Chinese elite/leadership simply had enough on it plate ruling China’s vast population and holding a vast country together, which “naturally” for the reasons I’ve outlined, has always been a central world power.
Today China’s vast economic potential means that it basically can “get what it wants” simply by flexing its economic muscle, not through military might or expansionism. To do this would be very un-Chinese and risky. Why confront anybody when soon one be able to buy them?
Unfortunately China’s peaceful rise to great power statues, based on its economy, is bringing it into conflict with the US which has absolutely no intention of allowing the 21st century to be the century of China when they intend to make it the American century. The War Party in the US wants a conflict with China, sooner rather than later, and this is worrying. The US is encircling China and encouraging China’s neighbours to seek confrontation with China with American backing. Moving the American military closer to China’s vital trade routes is an attempt to strangle China if the Americans need to do that. Even China’s allies are slowly being sqeezed. For example; Burma, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran, Libya. All of them vital for Chinese access to energy resources. The 50,000 Chinese who were kicked out of Libya, when Nato toppled the Gaddafi regime, was a clear sign of American intentions towards China and its African policy.
The coming American attack on Iran may become a turning point and the first skermish of World War Three, much as the Boer War was a surrogate war, an indication of the conflict to come between the British Empire and the rising power of Germany.
If Chinese geopolitical and military strategy is anything like Go, then just as the Americans think they are winning they will suddenly find out they have lost.
So who’s paying for this:
http://www.algemeiner.com/2012/01/05/u-s-troops-heading-to-israel/
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‘…with economy that produces and supplies over 40% of world goods…’
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Surely the percentage is higher than that? The switch from domestic production of consumer goods did not happen accidentally. I think it has been engineered. Find something that is stamped Made in the UK!
Uzbek,
That bastion of all things fandabbydozy, and Liberalism has done it again; “Iowa voter claims caucus miscount” as seen on “BBC” (booming voice over), which evidently is hinting at vote rigging, but does not fully explore the ballot stuffing, and repeat voting galore, among the self appointed selectors of the next “commander in chief” of the marauding US armed forces.
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It must be noted that this is a gathering of a bunch of busybodies, to anoint the champions for the up coming elections, their only qualification being; they are a member of the republican party, and getting off their fat arse and walking into the town hall or wherever the “selections” are in progress. This is conducted under strict guidelines and tight rules;
1- recounts are not allowed,
2- voter identity is not required,
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the ballot stuffing exercise then has thrown up Santorum, that has irked Romeny because he had not anticipated the 8 more fake votes to be such a deciding fact.
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In the spirit of skulduggery, here is an election night ritual, which has changed very little in the way of the underlying sordid principles, by moving away from its sordid settings (I highly recommend for everyone to find the time to watch the revelations contained).
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FAO others,
A thought experiment; If Hawaii decided to gain back its independence what would the US do?
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Philippines and its historical US ties (invaded the place, and bagsied the place) is not exactly an impartial agent.
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Formosa/Taiwan/Republic of China; that was a break away faction encouraged/nurtured/fostered in the good old fashioned fight against those god hating money burning heathen communistic perverts, that has not been forgotten about by the proper Chinese, is not exactly a democracy now is it? Otherwise there may exist anomalies; Moldova ought to be still part of the new Russia, etc.
@ Writerman
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Few very good points and quite balanced analysis.
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It is true that China cannot disappear and will only rise. The problem however is not in its rise itself as in events that preceding and following this rise. So far in history major shift in regional or global balance of power was preceded by war (fall of Berlin Wall was only one exception). For much of the nations that surrounds China Chinese dominance is at least alarming. Despite its size China has so far been unsuccessful in projecting power outside of its borders and this has been long before colonisation (for instance China has lost battle to Arabs in Talas and thus limited its western expansion). But Chinese are good learners and historical circumstances today are quite different from those centuries ago.
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Unipolar world order has done a lot of bad to many nations and has claimed a lot of lives. But Cold War was no better, or was it? This new Cold War is going to be different. It will not be battle of two extremely opposite ideologies. This time it will be battle of two global empires for resources and power projection. It will claim many lives and will certainly change geography of some nations.
This isn’t about US sabre ratting at China. It’s about the satellite countries around China who are purposefully forging stronger ties to China, trading their natural resources for cheap (sometimes nasty) goods and is facilitating their “out-sourcing” desires. With with 1,600 million people. many in gross poverty, it’s going to be a a LONG while before it’s faced with a serious challenger. It’s these countries will be in US cross-hairs.
Funny how it’s state governments that the US goes after and not particularly the large multinationals who out-sources long, long ago.
Komodo,
What do you make of the move?
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Is this move in connection with Syrian “uprising”?
Is this move to appease the chosen ones?
Is it for some other reason?
What I find profoundly depressing about Obama’s blithe announcement of a confrontation policy towards China is how pathetically out of his depth he is for the great responsibility he has as the empire’s young Caesar.
To use and waste resources on this scale, even for the US, is close to a criminal act of stupidity, which is, of course, almost normal for empires in this stage of their terminal decline.
They expend vast resources on symbolic conflicts designed to support and legitimize their ruling myths and dogmas about the character and holy destiny of the imperial project regardless of the costs. When the ruling elite of an empire begin to believe in their own imperial myths and then act opon these fantasies, then all is lost. Irrationality takes over from rationality and anything can happen.
Imagine if instead of confronting China these resources were spent on reforms inside the United States, like building a new, high-speed, transport system, investing in the education system for those at the bottom of society, reforming the healthcare industry, and creating millions of new, green, employment opportunities. A radical and rational reform agenda, instead they are going to war with China. Pathetic and a tragedy for all the rest of us too.
And look at our media, the ghastly fawning at Obama’s feet. It’s digusting. Here’s a young and inexperienced emperor who is truly hopeless and without any independent powerbase of his own, therefore he bends towards Power.
A weak President for the American people, who thought they were voting for a champion, but a resolute servant of the ruling families. President 1%. The American people deserve so much more than the US version of Tony Blair, a cynical opportunist on the make.
Yet, our degenerate media writes about Obama like he was a demi-god, swallowing trite rhetoric and bluster like it was the sermon on the mount.
When one thinks about the environmental problems we face, and the challenge of climate change, Obama’s emphasis on military might and confrontation is appalling and truly criminal.
glenn_uk, 6 Jan, 2012 – 2:23 pm: Thanks for highlighting the NDAA. Two great threats to free speech on the Internet are SOPA and PROTECT-IP:
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https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2011/10/disastrous-ip-legislation-back-%E2%80%93-and-it%E2%80%99s-worse-ever
“The doctrine of a “right” to intervene anywhere in the World has not changed.”
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Intervene by stealth I might add – here is the inside track based on intelligence which I believe is reliable.
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On 15 September 2001, soon after the towers fell, the Bush NeoCons planned a series of wars/interventions: Afghanistan and Iraq, Libya and Syria, Sudan and Somalia, and ultimately Iran.
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In 2003, just after the fall of Baghdad, the US Congress passed the Syrian Acountability Act which instructs the President of the United States to wage a war against Syria as soon as possible. What Bush did not have time to do is now being accomplished by Bush-Obama.
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Syria has alliances with China and Russia as well as Iran, a strategy formulated by al-Assad and his team. A UN resolution and NATO intervention similar to Libya are thus an impossible route for America. That is why deception is key for regime change in Syria. In a previous thread I exposed this deception now updated here as received from Iranian intelligence.
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The commander of the Free Syrian Army is Al-Qaeda’s number three, Abdel Hakim Belhaj, an MI6 asset who together with handler British double agent Moussa Koussa lead the rebel takeover of Tripoli.
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US war-mongering with Iran is of course a smoke-screen to distract British intelligence efforts in Syria to create the
couprevolution and the demise of the Tehran-Hamas-Hizbullah axis of resistance. Efforts towards the overthrow of President al-Assad have recently been frustrated by Arab League observers continuing their mission to oversee a peace plan for the country hence the recent ‘terrorist attack’ leaving 25 Syrian civilians dead, which the West blamed on al-Qaeda after British intelligence was exposed..
Complications for Assad from Turkey have been addressed. Turkey was forced to fully aligned itself with the views of the pro-Western Syrian opposition.
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I can disclose that Iran is negotiating hard with Turkey. Turkey is of course a member of NATO and the Turkish army is auxiliary to that of the United States. Turkey is home to U.S. bases and has just accepted that the Pentagon install on its territory the NATO bases that are currently stationed in Spain, as well as a new radar system designed to monitor Iran.
The thrust of the negotiations is to convince certain Turkish leaders to persuade Erdogan, who hopes to become the policeman of the region as Shah Reza Pahlavi and Saddam Hussein before him, that history has shown Britain and America will use them, then eliminate them.
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Somalia:
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Agent Cameron has said, “Somalia is a great threat to UK” and indicates military intervention in this newly found oil/gas rich region. Meanwhile Washington has given $45-million in military equipment to Uganda and Burundi to fund their forces in Somalia plus $24-million to Kenya, which invaded southern Somalia this year.
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Finally Britain makes no secret of the fact that, if they succeed in destroying Syria they will continue the war by attacking Iran immediately. Therefore, the fall of Syria would open a period of instability that could escalate into a global conflict.
Isn’t the U.S. pulling out of Afghanistan and Iraq?
Mark Golding : I believe these are really desperate measures by desperate governments. West economically is a sinking ship, therefore War is the Game…God help us all.
Writerman – Thanks for spelling it out so lucidly; your analyses which encompass the bigger picture chime with me; history really is the key to all this – we are doomed to repeat etc etc
And you’re right about Obama – there was so much hope and expectation when he was elected, but I guess the pressures of being in office soon overwhelm frail idealism.
As for Blair – I felt bitterly let down, but on reflection, wonder whether there was any idealism there in the first place and now think it was all smoke and mirrors from the start.
Rose siad; “…history really is the key to all this – we are doomed to repeat etc etc.”
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Let us clarify history; is a commonly agreed upon pack of shameless lies.
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Therefore history repeating itself, in fact means repeating the same set of mistakes, because the original set of mistakes were never highlighted, addressed and corrected. In other words it is akin to a lunatic residing in a padded cell, deciding to break out of the place by head-butting the walls, because the last head-butt reset his/her (not anti feminist/not sexist)brain from the time before, and so on.
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In fact a troop of baboons would appear to be far more rational than we the homo sapiens if we are judged based on the repetitive cock ups and mistakes quotient. Therefore, until such a time that our wisest monkeys keep covering up their crap, and feeding us the cock and bull stories, the rational man in fact is a mythical being.
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Hilo Tribune Herald (a Hawaii newspaper) carried the headline of “Japan May Strike Over Weekend” on 30th Nov 1941. Pearl Harbour was attacked on 7th Dec 1941, total death toll of 2355, yet we all have learned and have been told umpteen times and shown umpteen hours of packages on
HistoryHitler Channel, the cowardly Japanese carried out a surprise attack, that enraged the US and effectively Pearl Harbour became to be the starting gun for the US involvement in WWII.,
On 9/11 we were told that a bunch of 19 crap wannabe student pilots hijacked the passenger liners they were flying in , using box cutters (sharp blades that break off easily), and flew the said commercial jet aircraft all by themselves through the most heavily defended air space on Earth and crashed them into two tall buildings that crumbled to dust because the jet fuel melted them. This surprise cowardly attack then was the starting gun for the wars of the last decade that are still continuing and by the looks of it will continue until such a time that the only people alive are President of US, his neighbours, his sponsors and Israelis and their kith and kin in US, AIPAC, etc. not forgetting the relevant pets of course.
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So you see history is bound to repeat itself, if idiots can swallow this humongous grade triple A bullshit, why should anyone change a good recipe? In fact reading the PANC literature (the warmonger mentors, and authors of how to start wars and kill oodles of people) , it constantly refers to the sacred Pearl Harbour, and need for another Pearl Harbour.
100 Years of American Values:
http://100gf.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/google-doodle-celebrates-100th-birthday-of-charles-addams/
Happy birthday, Charles.
Well said Writerman, you pretty much summed it up.
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I’m glad I don’t live in China, it’s by far and away the most oppressive state I have spent any time in, but that’s largely an issue for the Chinese people to resolve. The rise of China is coming, nothing can stop it, but I don’t think it is an existential threat to the ‘free world’ like so many claim. The real question the west should ask itself is whether they want antagonistic relations with a growing China, or whether they want more peaceful relations.
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Undoubtedly China’s influence in the world will grow, but I think the idea of China becoming a run away hyper power is highly unlikely. There are simply too many competing and powerful neighbours. Russia, India, Japan and South Korea all surround and compete for the same resources as China. The smaller states in South East Asia are by no means destined to become vassals of China. Vietnam has a long and proud tradition of independence from China, Thailand and Indonesia are very strong US allies and Malaysia is quite independent. Even Burma is now swinging back to the US camp and it seems it is the Japanese who have successfully bought most of Cambodia. The last time I checked (it’s been a number of years), China had no meaningful navy to project their power.
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As for Taiwan, I do feel bad for the residents, but isn’t it US policy that created the situation and not Chinese policy? Surely the current situation when viewed in an historical context is very artificial. If it weren’t for the US messing with internal Chinese politics, Taiwan as we know it wouldn’t exist. I would also argue that China re-establishing control of Taiwan needn’t be a blood bath. Hong Kong has remained peaceful since China took over.
well said writerman, it was an odious occaision.
Whatever the figures of this review, it has shown that US troops stationed in Europe are being reduced and I expect european countries to fill the vaccum left, develop their own strategic peace and defense capabilities aside of NATO.
Russia might now throw a diferent strategic light on to Europe, and Poland better watch out before they even think of placing a missile defense system there, it would be detrimental and offensive to EU interests.
It cannot be in the interest of NATO countries, or their aim, to goad far eastern countries into war games, control their resources and influence their markets with sanctions and threats via a compliant UN, hence, we could see a break up of NATO. I would welcome this as long overdue.
Obama should tell us whether this move to the far east will be underpinned/preceded by another earth shattering occurence that manifests terrorism, a false flag attack of significant proportions which will make it necessarry for the US and NATO, sic, to assert its weight and start invading countries?
Will he claim the South China sea for the Phillipines? Or for Indonesia? what if China takes taiwan back whilst they are busy in the ME?
How about the smouldering conflicts in Papua New Guinea, or in East/west Timor? what would US intervention mean here?
Was Hague visit to Burma’s opposition leader Aung San su Chi a prelude to more FCO interest, aside of the generals in power, for a future US/UK action on China’s border, or a massive base there? Do these approaches send a message to China which says, we are now here? what if they reciproke with a flash war and depose the generals?
This world has already changed, we just can’t feel it yet. There is now a plethora of new and massive problems in the pipeline since this leviathan idiot has opened his mouth.
he will get re elected, there is no decent opposition to the man.
Wow… that would not go down well in Israel, specially in view of what MB recently announced (they will not recognize State of Israel), if they win in Libyan as well as Egyptian Elections I wonder what US of A would do?? Maybe recent movement and sending troops to Israel, has more to do with Egyptian and Libyan Election than Iranian threat? me wonder!
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/01/07/muslim-brotherhood-strongest-contender-in-libyas-coming-elections/