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I have a bike, a fast (40 km/h) e-bike. The surprising thing is that it is near-silent. And people are taken by surprise by it. It means I have to take this effect into account, e.g. when I take over a normal bike
The thing is, a normal bike will hear a moped coming from behind, but they do not hear me coming (so I do have to ring a bell, to draw attention,and to prevent them from surprise/scare reactions)
I have been driving through woods, and even animals and birds are taken by suprise:)
So … the same thing could have happened with SM, esp. when he came from above/beyond Martinet.
X … being at Martinet with SAH, might have been completely by surprise by the fast incoming (40 km/h) and silent SM. Probably X had his back towards the road uphill (from where SM came)
It would be totally different than a scenario in which SM drove uphill (20 km/h) with this longer stretch which X probably had in view
– – –
X, taken by surprise, and SM, by his speed, simply crashing into the scene, would have created a chaos. And SAH might have taken this opportunity to (try to) escape.
Max it looks like we were posting at the same time .
If a meet was between BM and SAH and BM was x he may have thought SM was long gone over the hill, if SM came crashing back in as you put it he would be able to identify BM or even where BM had been on his long bike ride .
Can you make SM riding back in match the wounds he received I thought he was shot in the back ?
If Mollier was riding back downhill silently, then he wasn’t the target, so all the chatter about Thierry or someone else overhearing about his route is irrelvant.
Rizet said two casings were found near the cycle, which appears to be facing uphill, but according to Maillaud looked to have been thrown.
@ Max, 8 Jul, 2015 – 10:55 pm
The killer would almost certainly not have heard SM approaching the Martinet from above, because any faint sounds (changing gears, gravel being dislodged by the tyres) would have been drowned out by the white noise of the nearby river.
Whether, as in my scenario, SM came downhill with the intention of helping the AHs or, as in your scenario, because he had completed the hillclimb or been recalled by LR’s phone call, he surely startled the killer – which, as M. rightly points out, implies that he was not the intended target. Only a very sporting killer would have watched SM cycle past slowly on a long uphill straight, where he could see him coming from a distance, and then position himself in a blind spot in order to wait for SM to reemerge zooming down that hill at speed.
In fact, it is difficult to see how the killer could have hit SM at all in that scenario, unless (a) the killer happened to glance uphill at precisely the right split-second, or (b) the killer stood in the road facing the Martinet and SM yelled at him to get out of the way, or (c) in passing the scene, SM noticed that something was amiss and braked. Coming around the curve above the Martinet, SM would have been doing 40 km/h +, accelerating down the straight, crouching down in order to minimise wind resistance. All of the above would have made him a really difficult target.
The ‘Pink idea’ of SM going beyond Martinet, and coming back … is simply a wild guess! But it could be a brilliant wild guess:)
Strictly speaking we only know:
– SM was shot at Martinet
Now, SM was on a bike, and thus we have 2 options:
1. He arrived, coming from Chevaline (driving uphill)
2. He had passed Martinet, went beyond, turned around and came back downhill (The ‘Pink variant’)
(3. He came from Jarsy, went over Col de Cherel, and came downhill)
… everybody and his/her granny always only had option 1 in mind. But option 2 is the brilliant, out-of-the-box thinking. It deserves to be checked against all others things.
That is the only thing I can say.
The whole riding back down is just a flight of fancy ATM but it does have a more elegant feel ,MN thinks its a french affair we are just testing that,there is not much about SAH that BB and others have not turned up already we don’t have a whole lot left to look at if we are going to keep the forum going.
It does make more sense for it to be a french affair it happened in France and there does seem to be quite a bit of criminal activity going on around there .
If TS had a conversation with SM on a mobile in public for instance then someone could have overheard ,that strikes me as unlikely because TS says SM was in the wrong place and I see no reason for him to lie about it ,it would rule out CS telling someone on the way out too ,it could alert someone to the fact SM
was about to go off on his bike .
If SM went above the barrier where was Melvin would he have seen him ?
Could point Peter about the crouching down etc that would also make if difficult for someone following him and shooting, if SM was just passing by at speed what could he have seen that mattered other than someone he knew or the gun ?
Sorry typo I meant Good Point.
I’d like to ask questions about the life style of Sylvain Mollier & Claire Schutz
What was his job?
For whom was he working when he took his three year leave to be the looker after of the infant?
Did he have any visible means of support, after he had ceased work other than what Claire brought in?
Did he hold a gun?
Had he been in the forces?
Who initiated the legal shenanigans?
Did they spend their days, mostly in Grignon?
How often did Claire have to cease her normal work, so Sylvain could go out?
Was he doing any work on the side?
And
did Sylvain Mollier have dealings with the gun-toting uncle of Claire Schutz
Pierre Morange?
MN Do they have working tax credit in France maybe it was financially better for SM to stop work and claim tax credits rather than pay for childcare .
I am sure it was thought through to get the best care for the baby in the circumstances they found themselves in .
Almost nobody would put a new born baby into child care, I’d hazard a guess
that fewer than 1% of women would put their new born infant into child care.
Big fire three miles East of Ugine.
http://www.ledauphine.com/savoie/2015/07/09/le-site-de-bisanne-1500-toujours-sous-surveillance-suite-a-l-incendie-de-mardi
70 year old woman bitten by an adder in her garden in “The Nest of the Mollier’s”
flown by helicopter to hospital
http://www.ledauphine.com/savoie/2015/07/09/une-femme-mordue-par-une-vipere
I hope it is not the mother of Nicolas Mollier-Thomas
For MAX
SAINT-NICOLAS-LA-CHAPELLE
The investigation is continuing after the fatal accident of a man 39 years
The Albertville community brigades still investigating to determine the exact circumstances of the accident that killed Sunday at a motorist in the Val d’Arly, Nicolas Mollier Thomas. There would be no witnesses and the driver was alone in his car when it left the road before making several barrels. The father, 39, from Saint-Nicolas-la-Chapelle and lives in Hery-sur-Ugine, traveling on a mountain road in the locality Flumet Aval, above the Flon bridge Saint-Nicolas-la-Chapelle, when the accident occurred. He was ejected from his vehicle and died on arrival of firefighters and Albertville Smur.
http://www.ledauphine.com/faits-divers/2014/10/27/l-enquete-se-poursuit-apres-l-accident-mortel-d-un-pere-de-famille-de-39-ans
If people don’t put their child into childcare then someone needs to be around to take care of it as CS has a business to run it would makes sense for SM to do it its not like she could say to SM go and run the pharmacy while I stay at home.
Pink, I agree.
Claire and Sylvain, seemed to have thought it through, and come up with
a strategy, which suited them, both financially and presumably, socially.
The point i have been trying to get as is:
Was Claire leaving her business to release Sylvain (during her normal working hours)
a regular thing
or a rather unusual event?
I would assume SM could ride his bike any time of day that would fit in, we have to many unknowns though as Q said SM may have needed a break from a colicky baby ,they may have had a tiff and SM
was demanding some free time or he may have had some business how can we find any of that out .
The way to find out:
is Eric gets Claire into a room
and he asks her questions.
Not forgetting the weather.
SM may have rang her to say looks like the weather is getting just right for a long grind up the valley.
Some random thoughts:-
If SM went further up then back – that would make WBM unfeasibly slow – he would have to have been riding a zimmer framed bike not carbon.
The post-LMC timeline, implicitly includes the ONF3 fourgon(ette). How many occupants did it have?
Was there another MC? Claude Antoine mentions two mobylettes so was there another trail bike in addition to the gentle giant?
@ Pink, 9 Jul, 2015 – 9:07 am
If I had been X, before committing to killing the entire AH family, I should have stood back a few steps, in the road, because that is the only spot from which I could have kept both the uphill and downhill approaches in view (in my peripheral vision).
If, then, a cyclist like SM had come zooming around the corner, I should definitely not have risked letting that person get away – not because of what he might or might not have seen, but because SAH would have called out at him to call the police. I would have stopped that cyclist, one way or another. As a crouching cyclist coming straight at me was a very difficult target indeed, and as threatening SM with my pistol would probably have been pointless (it would have taken him too long to register what it was), I should simply have leapt in his path, forcing him to brake.
40 km/h equals 11.1 m/sec. Working with a reaction speed of 1 second and a preparation time (hands on brakes) of 0.3 seconds, SM would have travelled 14.4 metres before he even had his hands on the brakes. A rough formula for the minimal safe stopping distance with a bicycle is d = 1/2 Vm (velocity at initiation of braking manoeuvre). An extreme braking manoeuvre, where the rider accepts the risk of somersaulting, can stop a bike in approximately half that distance, 1/4 Vm = 10 metres. Thus, even under the most favourable circumstances, SM would have travelled about 25 metres before coming to a standstill.
Given that X also required at least one second to react to SM coming around the corner (during which time SM would have travelled 11.1 metres), it is IMHO unlikely that SM could have come to a complete standstill by the time he was first shot – unless, of course, SM had witnessed the scene unfolding from above and braked of his own accord. If SM was shot in the back whilst on his bike, it would have been just after he had passed X, still braking.
I expect that within a month of the Slaughter of the Horses,
Eric Maillaud would have heard Claire
but Eric has been fixated for the last few years on ENGLAND, perhaps it is now time to get the Family Schutz, one by one, in again
and for Eric to hear them again?
I am very intrigued by Pink’s idea. SM going beyond Martinet and turning back.
Because it solve an issue I had all along. Namely the issue that SM already was at Martinet for a couple of minutes before the shooting started. I tried to solve this by:
– Having SM talk with SAH (but why didn’t Zainab remember/say this)
– Having SM stop halfway, e.g. to take the phone call (but it doesn’t fit with 15h32 timestamp)
The Pink solution actually is promising. Here goes a very basic calculation:
– WBM’s MC = LMC (assumption)
– From this follows that X started killing after LMC had left and before WBM arrived … the ‘4 minute window’
– SM overtakes WBM in Chevaline (4 kms to Martinet)
– WBM avg speed = 10 km/h
– SM avg speed = 25 km/h (doable for a fit biker like SM)
It will take SM 10 minutes to arrive at Martinet
It will take WBM 24 minutes to arrive at Martinet
14(!) minutes difference !!
The shooting (the ‘4 minute window’) starts about when WBM meets with LMC
This is roughly 4 minutes before WBM arrives at Martinet
Hence … SM was already 10 minutes at Martinet!!
So, what was he doing there?
The Pink solution says that SM went beyond Martinet for, e.g. 6 minutes, and then turned around to descend for 3 minutes
Very, very elegant!
The basic/key elements/timings of this scenario
1540 WBM arrives / Shooting ends
1536 WBM/LMC
1535 LMC leaves Martinet / Shooting starts
||
1526 SM arrives at martinet (14 minutes before WBM)
What secret business was Sylvain Mollier up to?
Is the secret business of Sylvain Mollier, the reason the “Family” of Sylvain Mollier
put in motion the court action to suppress knowledge
of the life of Sylvain from being made public?
Or Sylvain Mollier was doing business
to Pink & MAX
Sylvain Mollier could have spent a few minutes at Le Martinet conducting secret business.
@GIP
” If SM went further up then back ”
In that scenario/configuration/theory then there are TWO double visits at the Martinet with the al-Hillis (the tyre tracks seen by Max) and Sylvain Mollier up-and-down back ride (the five minutes). This QUADRUPLE visit could explain why the lonesome killer X was ‘taken by surprise’ he did not know which way to look. Only Brett Martin did a single visit before reconstruction or so we are told.
@MN
Yup, SM (in latest scenario) has to account for some time (10 minutes). Problem is that Zainab does not mention any biker, so e.g. the ‘SAH talks minutes to SM’ explanation is (according to Zainab) not possible
MAX let us just imagine,
Sylvain Mollier undertakes secret business.
He has to rush out.
He calls Claire who is running her not secret business in Grignon.
“Come home Claire, I have to take care of business”
Sylvain goes up to Le Martinet to be involved in secret business.
Whilst there they are all shot.
Somebody else does not like their secret business.
@Max
” so e.g. the ‘SAH talks minutes to SM’ explanation is (according to Zainab) not possible ”
Don’t forget that according to reports Zainab was then “down by the river”. She could not see or hear anything.