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@GIP I forgot to say I do not know which bike GG was riding I just thought the bigger version of the enduro was a better fit than the very small one Peter mentioned I know nothing about bikes either I was just following up his comment .
I expect Eric Mailaud has a very great understanding how many motorcyclists there were,
at or near Le Martinet at the time of the slaughter, he has been paid to look into it for the last few years.
I am not saying that what Eric Maillaud is saying is reality,
I am not saying he believes it himself 100%
but it seems that the one motorcyclist is the working theory Eric Maillaud is running with.
So we have two options ( or complete madness) either run with Eric Maillaud
or run with multiple motorcyclists.
Pink
I am pondering further on the whole geocaching thing, primarily because of Parry Chapter 16 – ‘A hitman for hire’.
Professor David Wilson, a criminologist at Birmingham City University contacted by Parry, thinks that the most likely scenario is that Saad was duped by the assassin into travelling up to the remote lay-by we all know as Le Martinet.
He is quoted as stating:- “It seems to me that he was lured there. That was always where the hit was going to take place. Whether the contract killer knew he was going to turn up with all his family seems to be speculation“.
Previously, I have suggested that SAH could have been ‘directed’ to Le Martinet parking by someone at the campsite (or alternately their destination overheard by someone at the campsite) as part of a robbery-gone-wrong scenario.
I am still deeply suspicious about the whole campsite walking advice thing, because their story has changed.
However, if their revised ‘narrative’ stands up to examination, then they did not specificly suggest Le Martinet as a starting point for a walk, just the general area.
So, if Prof. Wilson is correct, another ‘attractor’ is needed.
Someone following the SAH party, randomly bumping into them outside a house with a ‘For Sale’ sign, taking a snap for them and offering ‘helpful advice’ would do nicely. But such ‘herding’ entails huge risks of being remembered by witnesses or leaving DNA on the camera.
Geocaching as a ‘lure’ has advantages in this regard but it requires a sophisticated bad actor and it would likely be a waste of time to search for the ‘lure’. It would have been scrubbed before the hapless Eric was assigned to the case.
I expect that the intention always was for an exchange, that exchange was going to be between two or more parties.
one of the parties would be the family al Hilli.
One of the other parties would be Sylvain Mollier.
I expect Sylvain Mollier’s handler picked the exchange site.
I expect Mr. al Hilli left his family “site seeing” at the bottom of the hill, then cruised up on his on to scan for bad men.
Then came back down the combe, collected the family, then back up the combe to the parking area to await the exchange but things went bad.
I expect the motorcyclist/s were working for an agency of FRANCE,
probably as coms/spotters/watchers.
@GIP Z would know if they were geocaching so if it was the case it must be withheld it just struck me as the most likely reason for going up that road at all something they had done before and 2 caches in the area they were driving maybe more it just seemed like such a good fit for being there , if the cache is at the bottom I suppose it rains on my parade perhaps the french speakers can explore if there are any ones higher up on the geocache page or any near the Mill house or FIB.
South Eastern FRANCE is a lawless place.
http://www.france24.com/en/20150807-british-driver-button-may-have-been-gassed-riviera-burglary
@ Good In Parts, 6 Aug, 2015 – 5:32 pm
Insofar as the question of whether or not the killer knew that SAH would be accompanied by his family is concerned, in my opinion it is fruitful to consider his choice of weapon: the killer came prepared for a multiple homicide perpetrated against relatively passive, unarmed victims (with at least three full magazines for his pistol), but not for a violent confrontation. He did not carry a backup gun, nor a knife or another last-ditch weapon for self-defence – which he would have done if he had feared that his intended victims might fight back, for example by rushing him whilst he was changing magazines or clearing a stoppage.
A pistol with three full magazines would constitute overkill for a single unarmed victim, be insufficient to take on a car full of able-bodied men, but exactly what would be required – no more, no less – for the AH family. Thus, my conclusion is that the killer prepared to do almost exactly what he ended up doing, with the exception of SM, whose unexpected arrival tipped the scales against the killer and almost ruined his plan.
The question with regard the weapon (specifically the amount of ammunition taken and subsequently used) is an interesting one….
….as it does point to “premeditated multiple murder”. The only “multiple victims” were the Al Hilli family.
I did consider the idea that the weapon and ammunition were a “package” that had been bought that day, however I could not perceive a “hired gunman” trusting “the quartermaster” with completely cleaning the cartridge shells. This may have provided a “weak link” between the seller and the buyer. So I ruled that out.
I also considered the idea that the “gunman” was “the quartermaster”.
But again I discarded that idea as then the “quartermaster” became “the hired gunman”.
The only other idea (other than “the Al Hilli family were the targets) was that this was not a “premeditated murder(s)”. Which brings in the concept that these murders were the action of a “lone nut”.
@ James, 7 Aug, 2015 – 12:07 pm
Remember that guy in Switzerland who was arrested and held for a month on suspicion of having provided the gun? I have thought for a long time about how this might have happened, and the only meaningful explanation I could come up with is that the gendarmerie traced not the gun but rather the specific production lot of ammunition to that Swiss guy, who must be a licensed arms dealer.
Presumably, they suspected him of having sold the gun “under the table” together with the ammunition, but, seeing as they ultimately released him without charge, he was able to dispel that suspicion. If my supposition be correct and they traced the ammunition to that Swiss guy, that leaves two options: (1) He unwittingly sold the ammunition to the killer, but not the gun (2) He purchased and resold some but not all of that specific batch of ammunition, the remainder ending up in the hands of someone else who ultimately sold it to the killer, either separately or as part of a “package”.
Peter
So, regarding “exactly what would be required“, one could go further and suggest that the choice of caliber was particularly suitable* for shooting the occupants of a car.
Given that these murders took place in a parking lot and the critical shots were through the windows of the car, this could be foresight.
However I still think that (un)traceability was the primary factor in the choice of weapon.
My guess would be that the killer did have another weapon in reserve, likely a knife but did not use it on Zainab because she was a girl**.
To me the killer was too competent (accuracy, magazine changes and at recovering from the chaos) not to have been mentally shot counting.
Thus if he had wanted to reserve a round for Zainab, he could have done so. I would point out that at least one of the shots he did take, that to the forehead of SM, was not ‘necessary’.
So, Zainab got pistol whipped rather than shot in the head or stabbed. The goal being to disrupt her memory and make her an unreliable witness.
(*) Greater penetration when compared against larger caliber rounds of the same power (which would in general have greater stopping power).
(**) Plus using a knife would be really last ditch forensically, as blood would get everywhere.
Lone nut? Ammunition bought in Switzerland like chocolate?
Holidays are almost over. Within a couple days, everyone will be back and we can resume serious speculation.
I put my money on the suited visitor! What do you think, M & M?
Peter
I shall look it up over the weekend but from memory the last production batch for the Swiss Army was manufactured decades ago.
I think that Swiss Army rounds must have been the ones used because they would seem to me to be the only large enough batches to be effectively untraceable.
I ‘thought’ that the Swiss guy was cleared after examination of the broken grip fragments. I have had a quick search but cannot immediately find any reference to this, so maybe I have ‘misremembered’.
If this were in fact the case, possibly the seller took photos for his own records or an on-line catalogue and these were of sufficient resolution to show wear marks or color variation that did not match the recovered fragments.
I also vaguely remember that the grips had serial numbers, maybe these were involved.
@ Good In Parts, 7 Aug, 2015 – 3:10 pm
Regarding (lack of) traceability and fitness for purpose, a pump-action – or, faute de mieux, a double-barelled – shotgun would have been an even better choice for the killer. As the Rettendon murders have demonstrated
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rettendon_murders
it is extremely lethal against the occupants of a car. Moreover, it leaves no useful forensic clues, and the citizens of a place such as Lathuile would be so accustomed to the sound signature of a shotgun that the noise would have barely registered with them.
The fact that the killer did not avail himself of one of these common-as-muck weapons leads me to suspect that he may have faced some other kind of constraint, perhaps a space constraint (in that he was on foot or on a motorbike or indeed on a bicycle and thus did not have enough room for it), or perhaps a psychological constraint (e. g., that he regards himself as a virtuoso shootist and considers the use of a shotgun beneath him).
You may well be right in thinking that the killer “merely” intended to stun / silence Zainab and perhaps disrupt her memory by pistol-whipping her. Even without a reserve weapon, he could have done a whole lot worse to her with his bare hands. For example, he could have gouged out her eyes, which would have gone a long way further towards making her an unreliable witness than simply clobbering her over the head, or simply have broken her neck.
Tumba Wonder
Anyone got any insight into the spyware or the breakin?
@ Good In Parts, 7 Aug, 2015 – 3:46 pm
Please do look it up, but I am almost positive that you are misremembering on both points regarding the grip fragments: the grips did not bear serial numbers, and the reason(s) why the Swiss guy (or, more cautiously phrased, the Swiss resident) originally arrested on suspicion of having supplied the gun was released have never been made public.
As ammunition degrades over time, becoming less and less reliable, I strongly doubt that the killer would have used old Swiss Army surplus stock. Those original Swiss Army rounds have become collectors’ items now, which should make them reasonably easy to trace. Conversely, the 7.65 Para calibre traditionally has been widespread in countries such as Italy, where civilians are banned from using “military” calibers such as 9×19 Para. They are, of course, also widely sold in Switzerland.
My guess is that the gendarmerie, by analysing the exact alloy composition of the projectiles, traces of gunpowder residue and so forth, were able to trace the killer’s bullets to a particular batch of present-day 7.65 Para ammunition manufactured by RUAG, Fiocci or Prvi Partizan, all or most of which had been sold to a particular Swiss reseller. That reseller has subsequently been cleared, but he should nonetheless have been able to offer the gendarmerie some useful starting points for further investigation.
Peter
You are indeed correct. The grips do not bear serial numbers.
They bear the last two digits of the serial number, in common with other parts including the magazine.
“The serial number is stamped on the front of the frame and the last two digits of the serial number are stamped on most of the gun’s major parts”
For example check out this page
http://www.collectorsfirearms.com/lugers/
About half way down you will find one with the following in the description “All matching numbers except for the unnumbered right grip.”
Unnumbered in this case implies that the right grip is a replacement part.
I wonder if Eric Maillaud has yet found the time to get the man from “Lyon” back in for the rubber hose treatment?
@ Good In Parts, 7 Aug, 2015 – 6:26 pm
So we were both half-right regarding the serial numbers on the grips 😉
Having done some digging, it appears that those last two digits of the serial number were carved into the inside of the grips, about halfway down, as in this example
http://luger.gunboards.com/uploaded/sonor/20071231211550_grips1.JPG
Owing to their positioning on the inside of the grips, they would have been very easy to overlook for the killer, unless he was a real gun nut. However, given its location near the middle of the grip plate, I struggle to see how this particular bit of the grip plate would have broken off whilst he was pistol-whipping Zainab. Likewise, I don’t see how those two figures could have led the gendarmerie to a specific vendor in Switzerland. To be sure, those numbers would have cut the universe of potential murder weapons and thus potential vendors down to 1/100 of its original size, but that universe would still be too large for the police to keep somebody banged up for a full month merely because of that.
As you seem to have decided the family was the hit I speculate IAH as the target and the hitman knew she wouldn’t come alone my reasoning being she is the only person who has flagged up as being suspicious with JT stuff and never ending dental training plus SAH could have been attacked at anytime and probably SAS too as she was travelling around and more elderly .
The picture painted for IAH is that she was not getting out much the postman never saw her and she seems to have only been seen with SAH, the only case I have seen of independence stated was the dental practice where she was supposed to be updating her qualification ,I would be curious to know how she got to and from that job .
Given all that she would be the hardest to single out plus she had a tazer in the house if defence was needed maybe it wasn’t for SAH’s benefit.
Can you think of anything from a third party that could prompt SAS to need to make that trip to France with IAH possibly communicated on the stolen computer. are there any dowry implications from the JT end of things that might have been used for instance my imagination is not quite good enough to think how it could be done or why it would be France?
In a scenario along those lines SAS is the lure that gets IAH to France ,IAH doesn’t go out alone so SAH is the transport/bodyguard and they all become a target .
SM stays collateral .
I can imagine luring SAH to France alone would be simple enough promise a job interview buy a car etc .
SAS was a woman alone who could have been attacked at home in Sweden without all the others getting killed.
If they want to get at IAH they have get her out in the open and deal with an entourage.
@Peter
7 Aug, 2015 – 10:42 am@
If as you suggest IAH was the primary target, with perhaps her “mother”
as another primary target and as you suggest getting the women alone together, away from the children, would only have been possible if SAH took them off somewhere but the women still need to be in an isolated spot for a massacre, so even if SAH was not a target, it would seem likely that the slaughterer would lure the lot of them to a remote spot and aim to take out all the adults.
Good but what would be the lure.
The lure is the exchange, that was to happen between S.M. and one or more al Hilli.
So, the slaughterer intended to take out all four adults, hence the need for lots of balls.
The utter secrecy that has been thrown over S.M. is part of the clue.
As is the recent court case in Annecy with two media.
S.M. was also a target but not the primary target, he probably was collateral
but had to be silenced.
So, I suggest the intention was always to take out all the adults
and that S.M. was not just passing.
MN There is not anything found to connect SM and SAH or any real concerns raised about either that struck me as “oh” other than SAH suffering stress about something and that could be related to IAH.
There are certain signs that could be read as marital discord not wanting some things mentioned to SAH because it got him upset a sudden need to get independant, not registered at the home address .
Pure speculation on my part its true there is only what we have read to go on ,the JT IAH thing is the only thing that made me go “oh” and JT death on the same day is a definite “oh” so I am just floating the idea .
Methinks I recall that many months ago it’s been reported there was a second Efit sketch the gendarmes were keeping under their sleeve. Who is it? The suitman at the camp site? The X5 driver? Both of these? And why doesn’t the French investigators release it?
Posing these questions is a first step in the right direction.
Pink, MN, it seems clear that Mollier was a collateral target. Whether IAH was the initial, primary target remains to be shown. But the bullets count does indicate the killer was ready for multiple victims. And it’s cheap. Many websites offer boxes of 50 rounds for the Luger for just 21 Dollars. Not much of a clue, Peter.
We’ll find out more as I mentioned when the M & M gang is back with more serious speculation and everchanging spreadsheet timelines.
We may have lost a Tim, but not the wart.
Yes Pink,
it is somewhat annoying that the FRENCH are being so coy about the goings on of
Patrice
Mengaldo, the unnamed man from “Lyon” and of course Sylvain Mollier and the three members of the family Schutz: the Annecy court case was a ludicrous denial of the freedom of the press.
But as you point out it is a little suspicious that the previous husband of IAH should die in a car in bizarre circumstances on the same day as IAH and new family die in a car in bizarre
circumstances on a different continent.
So I agree that the focus should be on IAH and her “mother” of whom we have no image, which in itself is quite perplexing?
@
Melrose
8 Aug, 2015 – 11:13 am
Melrose I don’t agree its clear SM was collateral I would favour him as the target if it wasn’t for the overkill suppose SAH tried to run over the shooter for instance and by stopping SAH he has to take out the witnesses for instance ,the amount of rounds carried could be out of habit if an ex user of that sort of gun .
Pink, anything is possible, but not everything is likely. Imagining SAH trying to run other the shooter if said shooter was targetting somebody else is just a fantasy. People don’t do that. They run for their life.
Not with Z outside the car and SM’s body in the way which it was as he was dragged, if SM was shot and down first before the killer realised SAH was there because he was shooting from uphill of the car then his hand may have been forced .
I am not wedded to any idea I do think its interesting looking at SM past the barrier and coming back down and the shooting starting, SAH is then having to react.
As I see it common sense would say a local crime because everything
else is so complicated on the other hand if non local than my next position would be some thing to do with IAH as I think SAS could have been attacked in a much easier fashion ,plus any dodgy characters that have shown up are in the american adventure of IAH.
This is nonsensical
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/07/uk-sweden-assange-idUKKCN0QC1S720150807
SWEDISH prosecutors’ plan to question WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the ECUADOR embassy, in London, has stalled as ECUADOR has demanded SWEDEN give him asylum as a condition of the meeting, a SWEDISH official said on Friday.
“You can’t give anyone asylum at another country’s embassy,
that’s against international law,” Cecilia Riddselius at the Justice Department said.
“If he wants asylum he has to come to Sweden.”
Didn’t the “Mother” of IAH have SWEDISH papers.
The SWEDISH government don’t seem to fussed about her getting liquidated in FRANCE, yet they seem very agitated by Julian Assange having sex with their women.
Any double standards?
This from Bluebird, just after the publishing of the E-FIT-SKETCH and six days later the slaughter of Nicole Communal-Tournier
“Interesting. Not long ago, nicole communal-tournier’s name was nicole lacroix.
This is 100% the same person because her name is Nicole Josette. It looks like as if she is the second wife of Mr. Tournier and that they had married not long ago.”
I wonder if this geezer is one of her relatives
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2015/02/06/01016-20150206ARTFIG00253-haute-savoie-les-libres-penseurs-ne-veulent-plus-voir-la-vierge.php&prev=search