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Probability Theory
I used to estimate the probabilities as follows:-
P=0.7 for SM
P=0.15 for the SAH party
P=0.15 for other options
Now ‘other options’ seems to be on the up, I would estimate the probabilities as follows:-
P=0.7 for SM
P=0.1 for the SAH party
P=0.2 for other options
So a p-value is an estimate of the likelihood that certain data is consistent with a hypothesis being true or not being true.
Assuming you mean these are hypotheses that these parties were the primary target? A p-value of 0.05 represents a 5% chance of not being true (= 95% likelihood that it could be true) depending how you state the null hypothesis.
What data was calculated? because this expression requires a mathematical treatment of data, usually using a statistical package e.g. Minitab
None, I believe and assume because there isn’t any data that we know about so you are guesstimating and then expressing your gut guesses as you would if you could calculate with hard data.
I understand the frustration that we don’t have (even basic) data but I think this representation is not very valid to say the least.
Finalement! La même empreinte, le même modus operandi, le même DNA, la même signature, le même film.
“Lynch et son associé Sushovan Hussain, qui est mort après avoir été renversé par une voiture à Londres le jour où le Bayesian a coulé”
Munique 5 Septembre 1972
Nous savons désormais que la cible était Iqbal.
Does any body know what this means.
In the English?
Now, we know that the target was Iqbal.
“Lynch and his associate Sushovan Hussain, who died after being hit by a car in London on the day the Bayesian sank”
Norton, why are you acting stupid?
et WBM aurait pu être le capitaine du voilier…
James Dudley Thompson – Saad al-Hilli
“Now, we know that the target was Iqbal.”
Bacchus
September 9, 2024 at 00:04
Bacchus I wish you would share, how you know this?
However your post has just flashed a signal through my mind.
Two of Iqbal’s husbands died on the same day, as did Iqbal and her “mother” & one of her daughter’s was also shot.
So, Iqbal had the most family killed on the same day, she may well be central to the massacre.
It has occurred to me that Saad al-Hilli may have been acting in a similar way to Iqbal as did James Dudley Thompson.
They could both be “husbands” that were found for Iqbal, giving her a safe nest to rest up in, till she was activated?
This scenario could have merit, perhaps in part but this would logically mean that Iqbal was hidden by the US and then the UK, sleeping in order to perform some function in her previous native environment. I think there are strikes against that specific idea.
i) You don’t normally marry and have kids with your cover colleague
ii) You don’t really need cover in your protected countries; you can just go to work at Langley or Vauxhall Cross.
iii) That function would have involved travelling to another Western Country, not her native environment
Remember also that whoever was the killer was aware or became aware, of how she had been hidden in the US and UK
It could however be that after being hidden many years for good security reasons, an important function came up for which she was eminently useful (and discardable).
Such a function was not so much blending in in the ME but meeting someone in France (who would have known her from her past?)
Brainstorming on this scenario though leads me to another:
Perhaps it was instead a mission of the Al Hillis? A lost relative contact she couldn’t have passed up? Meeting Sueyla also and the whole family was therefore desirable. Was it some kind of bait? a reunion offered with someone from her secret past which got her into the open?
Sometimes it has been stated that Iqbal was a dentist.
If she was a qualified dentist she did not seem to go to work.
Yet a qualified dentist could probably earn more money than an engineer.
Then look at the French side.
Sylvain was apparently supported by his spouse/partner. Nominally he looked after their child, yet he could at the drop of a hat, go off to be involved in other activities.
Same might be claimed for W.B.M. he could go off and get involved in other activities in the U.K. or France.
I can smell coffee.
I feel as though one of my first instincts was correct.
Suhalia was not the genetic mother of Iqbal.
Suhalia may have recruited Iqbal.
And or have been her handler/controller.
Iqbal has been a sleeper, in more than one country.
The story has been that Iqbal was training to be a dentist or perhaps was a dentist but there has not been any proof she worked as a dentist or worked in a dentist surgery or in a hospital in England.
This is a thin cover story, barely good enough to throw at the neighbours in Claygate.
Perhaps Zaid al-Hilli knows the story of Iqbal’s employment, after all, he did live with them for a while.
I suspect Saad was selected as a safe and believable “husband” for Iqbal, to give her some protection and as a cover, he has also acted as her driver.
@Michael Norton Sept 10
I have notes that Iqbal was working as a Dentist’s Asst in Dubai and she met Saad in Dubai. I don’t know where that came from. Dental Assts don’t normally get to being Dentists because you need a long degree to be a Dentist which also requires very good grades at school; its a different stream which is hard, though not impossible to cross (like Nurse to Doctor).
I know you suspect Suhyla of not being the Mother because Zeena didn’t know her but here is another possibility: Suhyla was her real Mother, was extracted with Iqbal as part of the deal (or maybe had already fled). BUT they were forbidden to overtly contact each other because that could blow Iqbal’s cover. So Sukyla didn’t meet (without extraordinary secrecy). Zeena had not met her or at least since she was a baby. Under this scenario they would possibly have kept Suhyla’s identity also from Zainab because kids have loose lips.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Of all the cities on this list, Dubai might be the least surprising. An international redoubt of the ultra-wealthy cosmopolitan elite, the city is also buzzing with spies from across the Middle East and beyond. Occasionally, the intelligence games turn deadly, as in 2010, when a group of Mossad operatives, traveling under false passports from a variety of countries, assassinated a Hamas official in a luxury hotel there.
Often, however, the intelligence operations fly more under-the-radar, with Dubai serving as a major subterranean battleground in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
https://thebrushpass.projectbrazen.com/spy-dubai-mexico-bangkok/
City of spies
If it is true that Saad met Iqbal in Dubai, do you think Saad had gone there to have his teeth fixed?
intp1
September 10, 2024 at 17:18
It has never been expressed how the “mother” of Iqbal got to Savoie?
If, we are to believe, she normally resided in Sweden, how did she get to Savoie?
Zaid would know if Suhalia was at the wedding of Iqbal and Saad, if such a wedding actually took place. We have been assuming the wedding happened in a non legal way in England? As Zaid, for a time lived with his brother in Claygate, he would know if Suhalia visited their house?
Had Suhalia in fact ever visited their house in Claygate?
If, as you say, her visits had to be clandestine, unless this last minute trip to Savoie was intended to never return to Claygate, then are we to assume that Suhalia met the al-Hilli family in Savoie?
My best guess would be that Suhalia did not attend the wedding.
My guess is that Suhalia never visited them in their Claygate house.
Perhaps she did meet Iqbal on a park bench?
My guess would be Suhalia met the family al-Hilli in Savoie?
Could be.
If a Mother’s maternal instincts are strong Grandparents are even stronger in my experience. Zainab was 7, I just can’t think that a meeting didn’t take place somehow in those seven years (IF she was really the Grandmother).
As far as the actual trip, the most convenient route I think would be Suhyla flying to Paris and hooking up there but there was talk that the Family visited some broken down investment property on the way, Where that was I forget but I seem to remember placing it in the middle of the French Campagne.
Could also have flown to Geneva (or London)
Geneva could have been favorite for the flight destination of Sahlia al-Allaf.
I think Saad al-Hilli drove from Savoie to Switzerland to go to his Dad’s bank, perhaps they hooked up in Switzerland?
Oubliez les espions !
Il y a indéniablement un parallèle entre ce qui s’est passé au large de la Sicile avec les voiliers Bayesian et Chevaline.
Cela signifie qu’Iqbal et son ex-mari Johnson ont fait quelque chose de mal à quelqu’un (X). Ils ont trompé X dans ce qui lui tient le plus à cœur : l’argent. Et X a décidé de se venger !, mais avec raffinement, comme il aime. La date est symbolique, elle représente la commémoration d’un événement tragique arrivé au peuple de X.
X a créé un complot qui restera pour la mémoire future, au cas où d’autres auraient l’idée de le tromper à nouveau.
Maintenant, qui Iqbal et Thompson ont-ils trompé ? Nous parlons de millions de dollars…
Dans ce lien tout est expliqué, l’histoire n’est pas nouvelle. Ce qui est nouveau et révélateur, c’est qu’ils ont à nouveau utilisé le même schéma.
https://madame.lefigaro.fr/societe/tuerie-de-chevaline-que-cachait-iqbal-al-hilli-une-mere-de-famille-en-apparence-sans-histoire-20231117
Lynch et Sushovan Hussain
Iqbal et Thompson
His colleague Chamberlain got run over, Hussain went to jail.
Thanks Dodds, it’s correct!
Lynch and Chamberlain
Iqbal and Thompson
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2024/08/in-the-span-of-72-hours-four-people-tied-to-a-hewlett-packard-criminal-case-died-in-two-separate-events/
Un mariage aux Etats-Unis
On a un moment fouillé dans le passé troublant de cette dentiste de formation, devenue mère au foyer à la naissance de ses deux enfants. Le 11 juillet 2014, soit deux ans après l’assassinat de Chevaline, le Daily Mail dévoilait un secret retentissant, repris à l’été 2022 dans l’enquête édifiante du magazine Society. Avant d’épouser Saad Al-Hilli, Iqbal fut mariée à un homme aux États-Unis, un chirurgien-dentiste lui aussi, de 13 ans son aîné. «Pendant deux ans, entre février 1999 et début 2001, cette musulmane dévouée a vécu aux États-Unis sous l’identité de Madame Kelly Thompson, femme de Jim, un fumeur de cigare, ancien policier et employé dans le pétrole, venu du sud du pays», écrit le média britannique. Une première question se pose alors : pourquoi Iqbal séjournait-elle aux USA sous une fausse identité ? Surtout, pourquoi cet homme, un dénommé James. T – de son vrai nom James Dudley Thompson -, a-t-il été retrouvé mort dans l’état de Natchez, dans le Mississippi, le 5 septembre 2012, soit le même jour que la tuerie ? Découvert inanimé au volant de son pick-up Chevrolet blanc, moteur en marche, lui aussi, l’homme serait mort d’une «crise cardiaque», bien que son corps n’ait jamais été autopsié.
*** Ici un nom***
Est-ce une malheureuse coïncidence ou le décès des ex-époux, au même moment, cache-t-il quelque chose de beaucoup plus important? Les policiers chercheront, sans rien trouver d’éléments assez concordants. Du côté d’Iqbal, voici seulement ce que l’on sait : née en Irak, cette apprentie dentiste était partie à Dubaï dans les années 1990 pour y exercer son métier avant de rencontrer un homme d’affaires, un certain Sabah al-Shaikhly, lequel lui avait proposé de le rejoindre à Atlanta, pour vivre avec lui. C’est là-bas qu’elle aurait rencontré James T., son futur mari. Un mariage arrangé, selon les informations de Society, pour que la femme puisse obtenir la nationalité américaine. Avant de se séparer au début des années 2000, le couple avait vécu plusieurs années en Louisiane. Personne ne connaît véritablement les raisons de leur rupture, ni la fuite soudaine d’Iqbal des États-Unis après cette dernière. Les sources mentionnent que cette dernière ne pouvait exercer son métier sur place, faute d’équivalence de diplômes. Puis c’est le trou noir pendant deux ans, jusqu’à sa romance à Dubaï avec Saad en 2003, via un site de rencontres, et la naissance de leurs deux enfants Zainab et Zeena.
*** ici le motif ***
Réseau d’extorsion
Le père de famille, lui aussi d’origine irakienne, connaissait-il le passé de son épouse de l’autre côté de l’Atlantique ? Du côté de la belle-famille al-Hilli, ce sera la douche froide. En effet, c’est à travers le Daily Mail qu’ils apprendront l’ancienne vie d’Iqbal, découvrant des photos d’elle en maillot de bain au bord d’un jacuzzi, une image aux antipodes de la mère pudique et discrète qu’ils côtoyaient à l’époque. Pourquoi a-t-elle ainsi changé de vie ? Qu’avait-elle donc à cacher ? Pour Judith Weatherly Thompson, la sœur de James, son frère n’est pas mort d’une crise cardiaque mais plutôt d’un empoisonnement. Des soupçons qui viendront se confirmer lorsqu’un homme se présentera à son domicile en 2018, soit six ans après les meurtres, pour lui révéler un secret : Iqbal aurait fait partie, dans les années 1990, d’un grand réseau d’extorsion. «Elle mettait des gens très riches sous sédatif pour leur soutirer des informations sur leurs comptes en banque et les transmettre à ceux qui l’employaient», relaye dans ses pages Society. Et de poursuivre : «Judith est aujourd’hui convaincue que son ancienne belle-sœur a été tuée parce qu’elle ne voulait plus travailler pour ce réseau d’extorsion et que son frère a été éliminé pour les mêmes raisons».
Sans preuves solides, la piste reste aujourd’hui bloquée au statut de fantasme, et non de fait. Qui était donc Iqbal al-Hilli, de son vrai nom al-Saffar ? Était-elle une mère de famille dévouée ou un ancien escroc invétéré ? Pour l’heure, le documentaire Sans issue, la tuerie de Chevaline n’apporte, là encore, aucune réponse à ces questions. Le 5 septembre 2012, la femme de Saad avait-elle anticipé le drame sur la route de la Combe d’Ire, en cachant sa petite fille de 4 ans sous ses jupons ? Plusieurs photos exhumées pour l’enquête dévoilent les derniers instants de la famille, capturées quelques minutes avant le drame. Sur l’une d’elles, Saad, Iqbal et leurs deux fillettes posent tout sourire devant l’objectif de la grand-mère. Sans se douter un instant que le pire allait se produire.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2687572/Iraqi-denies-arranged-marriage-Alps-massacre-mother-U-S-man-claims-died-day-pure-coincidence.html
@Bacchus
Nothing really new here except perhaps the allegation that Iqbal was part of an international grift crime network which sounds unlikely and rather like an unsubstantiated, Western (Intelligence) deflection smear. Lots of daily Mail quotes which are hardly a source of high credibility.
Don’t know why you post in French but it sparks a connection I had not previously made.
This French, Pagan gods/Occult/Deviant spectacle at the Paris Olympics
https://media3.locals.com/images/posts/originals/2024-07-28/1006225/1006225_6xqwfk5qv8syvj6.jpeg
Is that you Front and Center? Perhaps you could help us with what that was all about? Also is it an indication of the quarter from whence you come?
What’s new here is that after 12 years, almost day after day, they used the same strategy again to avenge an embezzlement against their own people. Now do you understand? The same signature, the same film.
There is no doubt anymore.
The only thing we need to find out is how X managed to induce the Al-Hilli to go to Martinet?
such as checking the bank transactions of the campsite or tourist office owners.
Actually I don’t, I don’t know who X represents, what film and what specific embezzlement.
Can you clarify again, in English?
intp1
I have always imagined that Sylvain Mollier was an operator working for the French Intelligence.
His back storey is almost non existent?
How can you get to forty without having any history?
I guess while he was out with their baby, somehow he got a message, you need to dump the baby, you need to cycle to Le Martinet, now.
That message sent him to his death.
But who sent that message or more importantly who ordered that message to be sent to Sylvain?
Also, who was monitor that day?
Everything is connected
Quick snippet from a translation of the link below.
“As the investigation progresses, the police find out that Sylvain Mollier’s ex-wife has completed military reservist training with her new partner. As they follow this lead further, they find out that the instructor has a mutual acquaintance with the first crime scene witness, William Brett Martins. But this very weak lead does not yield anything useful.”
https://benwaylab.com/2022/08/15/chevaline-wer-richtete-das-massaker-in-den-alpen-an/
Reading that snippet, it would seem the motorcyclist from Lyon, claimed he did not notice the four slaughtered persons as he road around Sylvain Mollier’s velo, to descend the combe, he had little recollection of that day.
This person has been described as somebody of great reputation beyond suspicion, a business owner.
If this person, had been hang gliding that day and riding a motorcycle, he would be someone of immense perception, someone who sees things around him, he would not have missed four slaughtered people or a crashed velo. He would not have missed the slowly ascending W.B.M. as he slowly looked at W.B.M.
I might imagine that this Lyon motorcyclist is not telling the whole truth, as he experienced life, that day.
Very dramatic events are imprinted on your mind.
This person is very suspect.
michael norton
You wrote:-
Reading that snippet, it would seem the motorcyclist from Lyon, claimed he did not notice the four slaughtered persons as he road around Sylvain Mollier’s velo, to descend the combe…
Unfortunately you have been misled.
The esteemed motorcyclist from Lyon, LMC, met the ONF2 pair above le Martinet at approx 15:00 hours. He then apparently descended, along with ONF2, and was almost certainly below the ‘Y’ junction at the bottom of the combe by 15:10.
So No, he didn’t miss ‘four slaughtered people or a crashed bike’ or ‘the slowly ascending WBM’ because those events took place much later at approx 15:35 onwards.
There was the theoretical possibility that LMC, or indeed ONF2, could have paused on their descent and/or gone back up. LMC was re-arrested partly because he was discovered on a bank cashpoint monitoring camera after he had been presumed to have left the general area. N.B. I think but cannot confirm, that LMC rode down to the paragliding landing zone for a looksee then rode homeward bound past the bank camera.
However he was re-interrogated, cleared and released, after a night in the cells.
Quote
“Immediately after the quadruple murder, a mountain biker arrives at the crime scene, former Royal Air Force fighter pilot William Brett Martin, who has a second home nearby in Lathuile.
He is the first person known to investigators to reach the crime scene after the murders and also the last person to see the victims alive.
Shortly after he had set off on his mountain bike towards the forest path, he was overtaken first by a racing cyclist (Sylvain Mollier), who was travelling quickly, and shortly afterwards by the burgundy-coloured BMW station wagon, although he had not noticed the English number plates and the steering wheel on the right-hand side.
Then, coming from the opposite direction, a forestry car came towards him, followed shortly afterwards by a motorcyclist. He was dressed all in black and had a white helmet with the visor down, according to William Brett Martin. His motorcycle and top case were also white. When he saw him, the motorcyclist slowed down, as if the driver wanted to speak to him, reported William Brett Martin in his testimony, but then the motorcyclist continued on and drove past him.
A short time later, William Brett Martin reached the parking lot, where he was met with a scene of horror and utter chaos.”
It would seem on re-reading this snippet, that the Lyon motorcylist came down from Le Martinet, seconds before W.B.M. ascended to Le Martinet
So how to explain the motorcyclist passing the horror scene and not notice anything?
If you plan, you can fly from Stockholm to Geneva for fifty quid.
I recall that Lyon Motorcyclist has been brought in for questioning, three times, yes, they let him go each time.
So, if Lyon man is completely innocent, that then throws the spotlight back on to W.B.M.
Either, neither of them is telling the truth
or one of them is lying.
They can’t both be telling the truth.
My bet would be both are not telling the truth.
Like.✔
michael norton
You wrote:-
“It would seem on re-reading this snippet, that the Lyon motorcylist came down from Le Martinet, seconds before W.B.M. ascended to Le Martinet
So how to explain the motorcyclist passing the horror scene and not notice anything?”
Firstly, WBM did not pass LMC (at that particular point anyway). Around the time that LMC was re-arrested, held overnight, then released and cleared it was stated in the press that during the second re-construction WBM saw LMC but did not recognise him.
Remember that LMC was not included in the first re-construction because he did not come forward and had not at that point been tracked down. The second, most recent, re-construction, included WBM, two ONF personnel and also LMC.
The motorcycle that WBM did actually see has not been identified in the press. I think it was most likely the TBR. I also think that the TBR came out of a side track before descending past WBM so he would not have come directly down from Le Martinet parking. Even if I am wrong and he did descend directly from the parking place, he would have done so before SM arrived, so before the shooting started. That is according to my timeline anyway. Your version may be different.
As an exercise, I am currently attempting to modify my timeline to make the motorcycle that WBM did see into the actual shooter. The main difficulty is that the shooting has to start significantly earlier. This has knock on effects I have not yet been able to reconcile
N.B. The gendarmes must by now know whether or not the TBR was the motorcyclist seen by WBM but there have not been any statements or even leaks about the subject. It is all just glossed over. The press do not seem interested either. Maybe, there is some policy not to report, even benignly, on under-age witnesses.
As I have said before.
I imagine a killer turned up in Doussard in a car, clean.
The killer got out of his car and put on hiking boots, a hat and a small back pack. Then, dressed as a hill walker, off he walked.
A motorcyclist met the killer somewhere.
The motorcyclist had a spare motorcycle helmet and a gun and ammunition in the top box/panniers.
The motorcyclist with the killer riding pillion rode up higher than Le Martinet.
The killer dismounted, took the gun and ammunition, also putting the motorcycle helmet in the top box.
The killer then slipped into the edge of the forest.
The motorcyclist rode back down the road.
The killer did the killing.
The killer then walked scrambled down the hill, at some point he hid the gun.
A while later he emerged and walked to his car.
He then drove off.
The above scenario would mean both the killer and the motorcyclist worked for the same group.
It would also mean that their employer had time for planning
The above is one possible set up.
It does help to explain how the killer slipped away unnoticed.
It would also explain why a motorcyclist did not come forward.
michael norton
Yes, you did quite some time ago, suggest the ‘pillion passenger’ solution.
It was a good suggestion then and it still is now.
As you say, it does help to explain how the killer slipped away unnoticed. It enables the MC seen by ONF1 at le Martinet and the MC seen by WBM to be two different motorcycles. Which could explain the confusing descriptions
It also can be easily mapped onto the ‘motorcycle theory’ timeline with just the addition of another escape path.
What is needed is one observation of a motorcycle with a pillion passenger going up to the combe. Find that and you are on the money.
Is anyone familiar with the report of a large Motorcycle with saddle bags, traveling (with some difficulty) on a trail called Col de Chérel which leads south from the scene at 1600h
This witness was a female Cheesemaker/Farmer who said she didn’t think this bike could get out of the area on that track.
Surely not a coincidence, another Moto sighting leaving the area within minutes of the murder.
How could this fit?
In 1973 the Government of the U.S.S.R.
decreed the formation of a special shipping corporation
Sovcomflot
Recently Russia has decided to construct several facilities and ports for the transhipment of Liquid Natural Gas, in the Far-East of Russia.
This maybe because of Russia being sanctioned for the troubles from 2014.
Sovcomflot one of the global leaders in the maritime transportation of hydrocarbons, as well as the servicing and support of offshore exploration and oil & gas production.
After
Christophe de Margerie
died in Moscow, Vnukovo Andrei Tupolev International Airport, at the hands of a runway snowplough, after he had been having meetings with Dmitry Medevedev, following the start of hostilities.
The Russian Order of Honour was posthumously awarded to Margerie.
A Sovcomflot icebreaking LNG carrier (IMO 9737187) was named after Margerie in 2017. The ship is 299 meters long, 128,826 gross register tonnage and was built by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering.
Christophe de Margerie served as the chairman and chief executive officer of French oil corporation Total
michael norton
October 26, 2014 at 09:00
The boss of Total, Christophe de Margerie, died on the night of Monday to Tuesday in a plane crash in Russia
Very interesting that just after hostilities in Eastern Ukraine kicked off, in 2014, the top person of Total, was in Moscow having talks with Dmitry Medevedev.
A snow plough hit his aircraft.
Why would Russia give him two accolades?
At that time Dmitry Medevedev was Prime minister of Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29699733
We are being asked to reconsider the Salisbury poisonings and the connections with Russia.
To my mind these events have the same murky feel of political set-ups, with never any truly believable story for the public.
We are expected to agree with the narratives as they are spun for us.
Intp1
Yes, the MC seen up on the Col by Farmer Janin is interesting. Unfortunately he seems to think that the rider came up from the direction of Jarsy then down towards Le Martinet and then (in his opinion) came back without descending all the way to the scene of the crime.
So, if we take his word for it, the MC should be excluded from contention. The ‘thing’ though with Janin is that he has changed his testimony from ‘I saw nothing’ to ‘I saw a MC come and go’ so I don’t think we can be really sure if it exists at all. After all another farmer up near the col, who was doing some work on his chalet, claimed that no one had passed him.
If Janin ‘misremembered’ his timing then the Col would make a usable, if slow, escape route.
N.B. The MC allegedly seen by Farmer Janin has not come forward and has not been traced by les gendarmes.
He – She
is one report from a woman.
Is another report from a man?
michael norton
You asked:-
“is one report from a woman.
Is another report from a man?”
The answer is ‘yes’.
In a media interview Janin himself stated that he didn’t see nothing. Then his wife interrupted him and stated that her husband had in fact seen the MC come and go, as previously discussed.
Absolutely hilarious!
I expect the French scientists have completed their recent DNA researches?
michael norton
I expect so too. Unfortunately they would also need a relevant sample in the gendarmerie (or Interpol) database to compare it with. Which I don’t think they have.
It’s interesting that you posted this today as I was thinking at the weekend of the the initiatives that the cold case centre proudly announced and wondered to myself how they were getting along. These efforts obviously included the DNA re-processing then the ‘bornage telephonique analysis’ and of course the psychological profile of the perp that they commissioned.
Never been any mention of any found magazines?
Luger magazines
https://riflemags.co.uk/luger-magazines/
From this link:- ‘British specialist builds profile of killer’ (dated 2022)
https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/alps-family-murders-british-specialist-builds-profile-of-killer/189362
‘The profile states that:
Killer 99% likely to be a man, aged 30-40 years
Isolated act by someone who could be mentally unstable
Someone living alone or in an isolated, sheltered situation; and/or unemployed
Someone with attraction and/or knowledge of guns
Possibly ex-military, or a collector, hunter, members of a shooting club or paramilitary
Someone from the local area’
Personally, I think that the age range specified is much to tight. I also think that the perp may not be as isolated or asocial as thought. Still the profile does reinforce the localist perspective.
These days they “could” tell if the killer had blood of Denisova.
If very strongly Denisovan, that probably implies an East Asian Island genetic profile, if only slightly Denisovan, could be Chinese or Tibetan or Russian. If no Neaderthalensis at all, then very likely they are African.
However this way of looking at it is next to useless if they are genetically local to the Alps/France.
local people from Alps/France should be about two percent Neanderthal.
Be interesting if the killer came ( genetically) from, say, New Caledonia.
I don’t know if they can tell, eye colour and hair colour, I expect they can?
The “Killer” does not have to have a publicly known genome sequence.
They could have a sibling who has been sequenced or a parent or a child or a cousin.
This would not be proof in court but it could be an indication, pointing to some level of possible involvement.
It certainly would help the French Police to further their investigations.
be very useful, if the DNA gives a clear result as to race, height, age, eye colour, hair colour.
Just need to know who the killer/killers were being paid by?
It would also be very interesting, if it lead to an indication, there were more than one “killer” present
Meaning, excluding the people known to the police as having been on site, at that awful time.
michael norton
Whilst the door is still open (just slightly) to another person being some kind of accomplice, such as your suggested pillion providing MC, most evidence indicates only one shootist. Zainab even stated that there was ‘one bad man’.
The DNA trawl may get lucky, after all the shootist grabbed Zainab from behind with his bare hand. But evacuation and medical care means that a lot of other sources may be found too, as you noted.
Why do you suggest ‘more than one killer present’ when the motorcyclist providing the lift (as you suggested) would probably have decamped toot sweet to ‘de-couple’ his or her presence from the impending murders?
Good In Parts,
well maybe not another killer, as such. Maybe a support crew. Maybe, if other DNA could be gained from shell casings, bullets or grip fragments. Or tobacco leavings. If there was a motorcyclist present at the time of the slaughter, possibly, that motorcyclist might be riffling through people’s pockets or the boot of al-Hilli’s vehicle, before he motorcycled away.
Good In Parts
If my theory about a motorcyclist bringing the gun and ammunition and killer up the hill but not down the hill is true, do you think, even if that motorcyclist did not engage in any killings, that that motorcyclist could have left any DNA at or near the scene, on that day?
If the motorcyclist carried the killer up the combe, then the back of the motorcyclist would be touching the front of the killer.
Meaning that DNA would be swapped between motorcyclist and pillion person.
The front of the killer was touched by the elder al-Hilli girl.
Additionally the motorcyclist might have handed the ammunition/gun to the killer.
Next Generation Sequencing Technology
“Next-generation sequencing technology generates masses of DNA sequencing data, and is both less expensive and less time-consuming than traditional Sanger sequencing.”
https://emea.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing.html
michael norton
Upthread I wrote the following:-
“As an exercise, I am currently attempting to modify my timeline to make the motorcycle that WBM did see into the actual shooter. The main difficulty is that the shooting has to start significantly earlier. This has knock on effects I have not yet been able to reconcile”
Interestingly I found a snippet on the web from earlier this year that had the shooting starting at 15:35. If this is based on a leak of information from the gendarmerie then it would offer some measure of support for your position. Alternately it could be some lazy journalist writing approximate timings.
The other timing which concerns me is the time that SM set off from Ugine. Over the years I have seen times ranging from 14:00 to 14:40.
I personally ‘like’ 14:10 (which I have used in some of my timelines) because it makes the timeline less tight. Having said that just because it is easier for timelines and stuff, does not make it true or even more likely. It is certainly possible for the whole timeline to seriously tight. After all a number sections of it come down to a matter of minutes if not seconds.
The slugs,
it should be very easy for the right type of Laboratory to discover the exact make up of the slugs?
When they have determined the exact make up of the slugs, it should be relatively easy to understand, were they home made?
If not home made, which facility were they manufactured at?
When were the slugs manufactured?
Same set of thinking with the casings.
Something that has not been mentioned.
As it has been said three changes of ammo for the killings.
Were any magazines found?
Very unlikely the killer wore gloves, in my view.
If the killer changed several magazines during his onslought, he would most likely be pushing them in with bare hands.
So where are the spent magazines?
Here you go:-
https://www.itv.com/news/2024-10-15/reconstruction-to-be-staged-12-years-after-murder-of-british-family-in-the-alps
Lots to say about this but no time!
I wonder why they are doing it near Paris?
I have a notion DNA may be involved?
michael norton
I have a notion that ballistic testing may be involved.
That and reproducing the reverse arc and bank dig-in.
As it is happening or has already happened on a Military base near Gay Pari, I surmise that the cat is about to exit the bag.
Meaning, they think they know who is the killer.
I would imagine if you are letting off 25 plus shots and wound one child and kill four adults, that as you eject the spent magazines, you let them fall, as you are in a flurry of action. Yes, possibly you would hunt for them afterwards and pick them up, so your fingerprints/DNA were not “captured”
On balance, I do not think this happened, as you would have been searching for the “package”, you would be “heightened” to anybody else coming towards you and after the mass slaughter and possible search for the “goods” you would be away down the forest.
After a while, after you were sure nobody was coming down after you, you would have been hiding the gun.
Then away as a rambler, at a much more relaxed pace.
I am also imagining that the killer at this time did not have any ammo remaining, if he did, he would have hidden/buried that as well.
I think the killer would have gone more than one Kilometre away from the site of the slaughter, before he buried the gun/ammo.
If it turns out that the slugs were home made.
I would then conclude a local killer, without a large organization, backing him.
I would also conclude a local, personal motive, which would almost certainly mean the focus would be on Sylvain.
@michael norton October 27, 2024 at 10:59
It is not at all impossible that the assassins simply replaced empty clips where the spare ones were stored, in his pocket. I just don’t think an assassin, planning to execute this crime would choose to rely on one gun and 3 clips.
The weapon is old, it could fail, it would likely overheat, changing out makes you vulnerable if there are any other firearms against you (which really is the most likely rationale as to why you might need so much firepower).
I think it is more logical to take 3 pistols but even more likely you would select a more appropriate weapon.
I think the weapon(s) and ammo and spent clips etc would be likely removed not by the shooter. That is my favoured role for the cross country motorcyclist seen by the farmer, relaying/disappearing evidence.
michael norton
Interestingly I found (yet another) snippet on the web from very recently that had the shooting starting at 15:32. And they seem pretty sure of it. See quote below
“C’est là, à 15 h 32, l’horaire exact retenu par les gendarmes après de multiples et savants chronométrages, que quatre adultes ont été abattus et une enfant grièvement blessée par un tueur implacable qu’il reste encore à identifier. Cet acte d’enquête mené loin des regards viserait à établir la « dynamique de la scène de crime », car elle n’a jamais été formellement établie, selon des expertises que Marianne a pu consulter.”
The problem with this being that Sylvain Mollier was most definitely alive at 15:32:00 because that was the time that he finished the call with his ex-wife as he cycled up the combe.
So, if we are to take this nonsense seriously, he was alive at 15:32:00 but he was dead within one minute later. Plus he would have to have grimped up a six minute lead over WBM whilst fielding a three to four minute phone call from his ex-wife.
Link is below:-
https://www.marianne.net/societe/police-et-justice/affaire-chevaline-les-derniers-secrets-de-la-scene-de-crime