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Probability Theory
I used to estimate the probabilities as follows:-
P=0.7 for SM
P=0.15 for the SAH party
P=0.15 for other options
Now ‘other options’ seems to be on the up, I would estimate the probabilities as follows:-
P=0.7 for SM
P=0.1 for the SAH party
P=0.2 for other options
So a p-value is an estimate of the likelihood that certain data is consistent with a hypothesis being true or not being true.
Assuming you mean these are hypotheses that these parties were the primary target? A p-value of 0.05 represents a 5% chance of not being true (= 95% likelihood that it could be true) depending how you state the null hypothesis.
What data was calculated? because this expression requires a mathematical treatment of data, usually using a statistical package e.g. Minitab
None, I believe and assume because there isn’t any data that we know about so you are guesstimating and then expressing your gut guesses as you would if you could calculate with hard data.
I understand the frustration that we don’t have (even basic) data but I think this representation is not very valid to say the least.
Finalement! La même empreinte, le même modus operandi, le même DNA, la même signature, le même film.
“Lynch et son associé Sushovan Hussain, qui est mort après avoir été renversé par une voiture à Londres le jour où le Bayesian a coulé”
Munique 5 Septembre 1972
Nous savons désormais que la cible était Iqbal.
Does any body know what this means.
In the English?
Now, we know that the target was Iqbal.
“Lynch and his associate Sushovan Hussain, who died after being hit by a car in London on the day the Bayesian sank”
Norton, why are you acting stupid?
et WBM aurait pu être le capitaine du voilier…
James Dudley Thompson – Saad al-Hilli
“Now, we know that the target was Iqbal.”
Bacchus
September 9, 2024 at 00:04
Bacchus I wish you would share, how you know this?
However your post has just flashed a signal through my mind.
Two of Iqbal’s husbands died on the same day, as did Iqbal and her “mother” & one of her daughter’s was also shot.
So, Iqbal had the most family killed on the same day, she may well be central to the massacre.
It has occurred to me that Saad al-Hilli may have been acting in a similar way to Iqbal as did James Dudley Thompson.
They could both be “husbands” that were found for Iqbal, giving her a safe nest to rest up in, till she was activated?
This scenario could have merit, perhaps in part but this would logically mean that Iqbal was hidden by the US and then the UK, sleeping in order to perform some function in her previous native environment. I think there are strikes against that specific idea.
i) You don’t normally marry and have kids with your cover colleague
ii) You don’t really need cover in your protected countries; you can just go to work at Langley or Vauxhall Cross.
iii) That function would have involved travelling to another Western Country, not her native environment
Remember also that whoever was the killer was aware or became aware, of how she had been hidden in the US and UK
It could however be that after being hidden many years for good security reasons, an important function came up for which she was eminently useful (and discardable).
Such a function was not so much blending in in the ME but meeting someone in France (who would have known her from her past?)
Brainstorming on this scenario though leads me to another:
Perhaps it was instead a mission of the Al Hillis? A lost relative contact she couldn’t have passed up? Meeting Sueyla also and the whole family was therefore desirable. Was it some kind of bait? a reunion offered with someone from her secret past which got her into the open?
Sometimes it has been stated that Iqbal was a dentist.
If she was a qualified dentist she did not seem to go to work.
Yet a qualified dentist could probably earn more money than an engineer.
Then look at the French side.
Sylvain was apparently supported by his spouse/partner. Nominally he looked after their child, yet he could at the drop of a hat, go off to be involved in other activities.
Same might be claimed for W.B.M. he could go off and get involved in other activities in the U.K. or France.
I can smell coffee.
I feel as though one of my first instincts was correct.
Suhalia was not the genetic mother of Iqbal.
Suhalia may have recruited Iqbal.
And or have been her handler/controller.
Iqbal has been a sleeper, in more than one country.
The story has been that Iqbal was training to be a dentist or perhaps was a dentist but there has not been any proof she worked as a dentist or worked in a dentist surgery or in a hospital in England.
This is a thin cover story, barely good enough to throw at the neighbours in Claygate.
Perhaps Zaid al-Hilli knows the story of Iqbal’s employment, after all, he did live with them for a while.
I suspect Saad was selected as a safe and believable “husband” for Iqbal, to give her some protection and as a cover, he has also acted as her driver.
@Michael Norton Sept 10
I have notes that Iqbal was working as a Dentist’s Asst in Dubai and she met Saad in Dubai. I don’t know where that came from. Dental Assts don’t normally get to being Dentists because you need a long degree to be a Dentist which also requires very good grades at school; its a different stream which is hard, though not impossible to cross (like Nurse to Doctor).
I know you suspect Suhyla of not being the Mother because Zeena didn’t know her but here is another possibility: Suhyla was her real Mother, was extracted with Iqbal as part of the deal (or maybe had already fled). BUT they were forbidden to overtly contact each other because that could blow Iqbal’s cover. So Sukyla didn’t meet (without extraordinary secrecy). Zeena had not met her or at least since she was a baby. Under this scenario they would possibly have kept Suhyla’s identity also from Zainab because kids have loose lips.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Of all the cities on this list, Dubai might be the least surprising. An international redoubt of the ultra-wealthy cosmopolitan elite, the city is also buzzing with spies from across the Middle East and beyond. Occasionally, the intelligence games turn deadly, as in 2010, when a group of Mossad operatives, traveling under false passports from a variety of countries, assassinated a Hamas official in a luxury hotel there.
Often, however, the intelligence operations fly more under-the-radar, with Dubai serving as a major subterranean battleground in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
https://thebrushpass.projectbrazen.com/spy-dubai-mexico-bangkok/
City of spies
If it is true that Saad met Iqbal in Dubai, do you think Saad had gone there to have his teeth fixed?
intp1
September 10, 2024 at 17:18
It has never been expressed how the “mother” of Iqbal got to Savoie?
If, we are to believe, she normally resided in Sweden, how did she get to Savoie?
Zaid would know if Suhalia was at the wedding of Iqbal and Saad, if such a wedding actually took place. We have been assuming the wedding happened in a non legal way in England? As Zaid, for a time lived with his brother in Claygate, he would know if Suhalia visited their house?
Had Suhalia in fact ever visited their house in Claygate?
If, as you say, her visits had to be clandestine, unless this last minute trip to Savoie was intended to never return to Claygate, then are we to assume that Suhalia met the al-Hilli family in Savoie?
My best guess would be that Suhalia did not attend the wedding.
My guess is that Suhalia never visited them in their Claygate house.
Perhaps she did meet Iqbal on a park bench?
My guess would be Suhalia met the family al-Hilli in Savoie?
Could be.
If a Mother’s maternal instincts are strong Grandparents are even stronger in my experience. Zainab was 7, I just can’t think that a meeting didn’t take place somehow in those seven years (IF she was really the Grandmother).
As far as the actual trip, the most convenient route I think would be Suhyla flying to Paris and hooking up there but there was talk that the Family visited some broken down investment property on the way, Where that was I forget but I seem to remember placing it in the middle of the French Campagne.
Could also have flown to Geneva (or London)
Geneva could have been favorite for the flight destination of Sahlia al-Allaf.
I think Saad al-Hilli drove from Savoie to Switzerland to go to his Dad’s bank, perhaps they hooked up in Switzerland?
Oubliez les espions !
Il y a indéniablement un parallèle entre ce qui s’est passé au large de la Sicile avec les voiliers Bayesian et Chevaline.
Cela signifie qu’Iqbal et son ex-mari Johnson ont fait quelque chose de mal à quelqu’un (X). Ils ont trompé X dans ce qui lui tient le plus à cœur : l’argent. Et X a décidé de se venger !, mais avec raffinement, comme il aime. La date est symbolique, elle représente la commémoration d’un événement tragique arrivé au peuple de X.
X a créé un complot qui restera pour la mémoire future, au cas où d’autres auraient l’idée de le tromper à nouveau.
Maintenant, qui Iqbal et Thompson ont-ils trompé ? Nous parlons de millions de dollars…
Dans ce lien tout est expliqué, l’histoire n’est pas nouvelle. Ce qui est nouveau et révélateur, c’est qu’ils ont à nouveau utilisé le même schéma.
https://madame.lefigaro.fr/societe/tuerie-de-chevaline-que-cachait-iqbal-al-hilli-une-mere-de-famille-en-apparence-sans-histoire-20231117
Lynch et Sushovan Hussain
Iqbal et Thompson
Un mariage aux Etats-Unis
On a un moment fouillé dans le passé troublant de cette dentiste de formation, devenue mère au foyer à la naissance de ses deux enfants. Le 11 juillet 2014, soit deux ans après l’assassinat de Chevaline, le Daily Mail dévoilait un secret retentissant, repris à l’été 2022 dans l’enquête édifiante du magazine Society. Avant d’épouser Saad Al-Hilli, Iqbal fut mariée à un homme aux États-Unis, un chirurgien-dentiste lui aussi, de 13 ans son aîné. «Pendant deux ans, entre février 1999 et début 2001, cette musulmane dévouée a vécu aux États-Unis sous l’identité de Madame Kelly Thompson, femme de Jim, un fumeur de cigare, ancien policier et employé dans le pétrole, venu du sud du pays», écrit le média britannique. Une première question se pose alors : pourquoi Iqbal séjournait-elle aux USA sous une fausse identité ? Surtout, pourquoi cet homme, un dénommé James. T – de son vrai nom James Dudley Thompson -, a-t-il été retrouvé mort dans l’état de Natchez, dans le Mississippi, le 5 septembre 2012, soit le même jour que la tuerie ? Découvert inanimé au volant de son pick-up Chevrolet blanc, moteur en marche, lui aussi, l’homme serait mort d’une «crise cardiaque», bien que son corps n’ait jamais été autopsié.
*** Ici un nom***
Est-ce une malheureuse coïncidence ou le décès des ex-époux, au même moment, cache-t-il quelque chose de beaucoup plus important? Les policiers chercheront, sans rien trouver d’éléments assez concordants. Du côté d’Iqbal, voici seulement ce que l’on sait : née en Irak, cette apprentie dentiste était partie à Dubaï dans les années 1990 pour y exercer son métier avant de rencontrer un homme d’affaires, un certain Sabah al-Shaikhly, lequel lui avait proposé de le rejoindre à Atlanta, pour vivre avec lui. C’est là-bas qu’elle aurait rencontré James T., son futur mari. Un mariage arrangé, selon les informations de Society, pour que la femme puisse obtenir la nationalité américaine. Avant de se séparer au début des années 2000, le couple avait vécu plusieurs années en Louisiane. Personne ne connaît véritablement les raisons de leur rupture, ni la fuite soudaine d’Iqbal des États-Unis après cette dernière. Les sources mentionnent que cette dernière ne pouvait exercer son métier sur place, faute d’équivalence de diplômes. Puis c’est le trou noir pendant deux ans, jusqu’à sa romance à Dubaï avec Saad en 2003, via un site de rencontres, et la naissance de leurs deux enfants Zainab et Zeena.
*** ici le motif ***
Réseau d’extorsion
Le père de famille, lui aussi d’origine irakienne, connaissait-il le passé de son épouse de l’autre côté de l’Atlantique ? Du côté de la belle-famille al-Hilli, ce sera la douche froide. En effet, c’est à travers le Daily Mail qu’ils apprendront l’ancienne vie d’Iqbal, découvrant des photos d’elle en maillot de bain au bord d’un jacuzzi, une image aux antipodes de la mère pudique et discrète qu’ils côtoyaient à l’époque. Pourquoi a-t-elle ainsi changé de vie ? Qu’avait-elle donc à cacher ? Pour Judith Weatherly Thompson, la sœur de James, son frère n’est pas mort d’une crise cardiaque mais plutôt d’un empoisonnement. Des soupçons qui viendront se confirmer lorsqu’un homme se présentera à son domicile en 2018, soit six ans après les meurtres, pour lui révéler un secret : Iqbal aurait fait partie, dans les années 1990, d’un grand réseau d’extorsion. «Elle mettait des gens très riches sous sédatif pour leur soutirer des informations sur leurs comptes en banque et les transmettre à ceux qui l’employaient», relaye dans ses pages Society. Et de poursuivre : «Judith est aujourd’hui convaincue que son ancienne belle-sœur a été tuée parce qu’elle ne voulait plus travailler pour ce réseau d’extorsion et que son frère a été éliminé pour les mêmes raisons».
Sans preuves solides, la piste reste aujourd’hui bloquée au statut de fantasme, et non de fait. Qui était donc Iqbal al-Hilli, de son vrai nom al-Saffar ? Était-elle une mère de famille dévouée ou un ancien escroc invétéré ? Pour l’heure, le documentaire Sans issue, la tuerie de Chevaline n’apporte, là encore, aucune réponse à ces questions. Le 5 septembre 2012, la femme de Saad avait-elle anticipé le drame sur la route de la Combe d’Ire, en cachant sa petite fille de 4 ans sous ses jupons ? Plusieurs photos exhumées pour l’enquête dévoilent les derniers instants de la famille, capturées quelques minutes avant le drame. Sur l’une d’elles, Saad, Iqbal et leurs deux fillettes posent tout sourire devant l’objectif de la grand-mère. Sans se douter un instant que le pire allait se produire.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2687572/Iraqi-denies-arranged-marriage-Alps-massacre-mother-U-S-man-claims-died-day-pure-coincidence.html
@Bacchus
Nothing really new here except perhaps the allegation that Iqbal was part of an international grift crime network which sounds unlikely and rather like an unsubstantiated, Western (Intelligence) deflection smear. Lots of daily Mail quotes which are hardly a source of high credibility.
Don’t know why you post in French but it sparks a connection I had not previously made.
This French, Pagan gods/Occult/Deviant spectacle at the Paris Olympics
https://media3.locals.com/images/posts/originals/2024-07-28/1006225/1006225_6xqwfk5qv8syvj6.jpeg
Is that you Front and Center? Perhaps you could help us with what that was all about? Also is it an indication of the quarter from whence you come?
What’s new here is that after 12 years, almost day after day, they used the same strategy again to avenge an embezzlement against their own people. Now do you understand? The same signature, the same film.
There is no doubt anymore.
The only thing we need to find out is how X managed to induce the Al-Hilli to go to Martinet?
such as checking the bank transactions of the campsite or tourist office owners.
Actually I don’t, I don’t know who X represents, what film and what specific embezzlement.
Can you clarify again, in English?
intp1
I have always imagined that Sylvain Mollier was an operator working for the French Intelligence.
His back storey is almost non existent?
How can you get to forty without having any history?
I guess while he was out with their baby, somehow he got a message, you need to dump the baby, you need to cycle to Le Martinet, now.
That message sent him to his death.
But who sent that message or more importantly who ordered that message to be sent to Sylvain?
Also, who was monitor that day?
Everything is connected
Quick snippet from a translation of the link below.
“As the investigation progresses, the police find out that Sylvain Mollier’s ex-wife has completed military reservist training with her new partner. As they follow this lead further, they find out that the instructor has a mutual acquaintance with the first crime scene witness, William Brett Martins. But this very weak lead does not yield anything useful.”
https://benwaylab.com/2022/08/15/chevaline-wer-richtete-das-massaker-in-den-alpen-an/
Reading that snippet, it would seem the motorcyclist from Lyon, claimed he did not notice the four slaughtered persons as he road around Sylvain Mollier’s velo, to descend the combe, he had little recollection of that day.
This person has been described as somebody of great reputation beyond suspicion, a business owner.
If this person, had been hang gliding that day and riding a motorcycle, he would be someone of immense perception, someone who sees things around him, he would not have missed four slaughtered people or a crashed velo. He would not have missed the slowly ascending W.B.M. as he slowly looked at W.B.M.
I might imagine that this Lyon motorcyclist is not telling the whole truth, as he experienced life, that day.
Very dramatic events are imprinted on your mind.
This person is very suspect.
If you plan, you can fly from Stockholm to Geneva for fifty quid.