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@ Q
Pharmacies are a great business, because people always get sick, so no shortage of demand. Also the population profile is ageing, so more people are tending to get sick. Western European National Health Services are a cash cow for pharmacies, although there is pressure on margins. It’s good that OTCs are now available at supermarkets etc, but you will see that there are restrictions on what can be sold. For example, NCAID’s and most antibiotics are seldom sold OTC in these outlets. Plus there is scope in pharamcies for health supplements (very high margin) and other sidelines. As I mentioned in an earlier post, a pharmacy is roughly valued at 1 x annual turnover, so Claire’s business is worth about 1.6 million euros, according to the 2014 numbers. I believe she has a monopoly in her neighbourhood. The only downside is relatively sparse population, not sure about seasonal tourist trade. Rest assured, Claire is doing fine and has excellent prospects.
Given the multiplicity of hypotheses, none of which can be definitively proved or disproved, I prefer to think in terms of relative probabilities. Here are my current ratings (which change almost daily):
Local affair (Mollier prime target) 60% (trending down a bit)
Inheritance (Zaid guilty or implicated) 25% (trending back up a bit)
Related to Iqbal / Mother 8% (trending up, after GIP)
Random “Lone Nutter” 4%
Espionage Related 2%
Other Theories 1%
In the spirit of straw polls and democracy, I’d be interested in others’ views. Numbers have to add up to 100, of course.
@ M. and Good in Parts
Thanks for clarifying matters regarding the suit man.
@ Mr Juicy
Whilst one cannot completely rule out ZAH as the instigator of the murders, I firmly believe that he was shocked and horrified at the outcome, which not only brought him no financial benefit whatsoever, but also harmed his nieces, something that not even his enraged brother Saad ever accused him of intending.
However, I can only reiterate my conviction that the conflict with his brother would have caused Saad to plead his case to as many members of the extended family as possible. I interpret both his meeting with the suit man and his making “bursts” of phone calls all over the place as Saad reaching out to the family. He would not have needed to do so had it not been for the conflict with Zaid – in the absence of further incriminating facts, that is the entirety of Zaid’s (indirect) involvement.
Although an intrafamily killing currently remains my favoured hypothesis, with 60 %, I am not prepared to abandon the idea of a random “lone nutter” (30 %), nor of a local affair with SM being the primary target (10 %). Everything else, espionage, a Mossad hit, Saad planning to build a hafnium bomb in his garden shed and so forth, gets nul points from me.
Juicy
There was a suggestion on one of the fora that SAH was leaving the campsite frequently to make voip calls because the free wifi at the campsite was overloaded. Maybe he leached off home connections in a village nearby. During working hours local home wifi should be uncongested, if he could find ones that were unsecured.
The subject of the calls to Spain, at a guess, was the sale of Khadims flat there. Those to Switzerland, again a guess, were to friends and former colleagues to chat or to arrange a meet up.
Media reports indicated that the Swiss police traced those calls made into Switzerland and checked the locations of cell phones.
In one of the chat logs (maybe with his friend James Mathews) quoted by the media, SAH stated that his online accounts had been hacked by Jordanians. I seem to remember that he had trouble with a Skype client.
60% SAH
20% Suhaila
20% Mollier
That is as of today
There are people in Spain who cared for KAH, SAH could well have been garnering their support, although the book says he went there at one point to sort out a situation where a career had stolen money.
Zaid says his father applied for the two credit cards, Millard says he did, the bank employee apparently calling KAH because the signatures did not match,KAH saying he had not requested them and he did not want them.
To what address were they to be sent ? If it was Spain then maybe one of the careers applied for them ? Or KAH did but did not remember.
If the address was in the UK, most likely the Claygate one, KAH was still registered there, at the time Zaid was said to be dealing with his fathers affairs.
Dario Zanni has said all phone calls from the area to Switzerland were traced, in turn the usage was looked at retrospectively and the phones were tapped.
Just a reminder the phones on the Schutz/Mollier side were also tapped for some six months after the murders.
MAILLAUD, apologies, Monsieur Le Procureur
Zaid’s obvious hatred towards the above and James Mathews referring to him as the clown, helps nobody.
I would prefer to see Zaid go to France, with his lawyer and a British Police Officer, than remain apart spitting bile.
Juicy, if you read French blogs, comments on French Press outlets you will find many who side with you in thinking Mollier was the only .target. Generalising regarding the French as is be proclivity of MN is a tad disturbing.
I wonder what the French did to him and then there is Waterloo.
Juicy, you in the States, down south weather not looking too good ?
Some members of the Family al-Hilli & Sylvain Mollier at a SET-UP-MEET 75%
Iqbal prime target 10%
Suhalia prime target 10%
Mollier on his own 5%
@ M.
AFAIK, in Spain, Kadhim was cared for by a female Moroccan housekeeper whom Saad accused of having stolen money from KAH. I take that to mean that she overcharged KAH for the groceries she bought for him, or dipped into his pockets.
I have trouble imagining a Moroccan housekeeper reading bank documents that most likely were in English, working out that there must be a dormant offshore account in Switzerland and applying for debit cards. Moreover, given that the client advisor called KAH in Spain, he must have known that he was resident there. Hence, a request to send the cards to KAH’s address in Spain would not have aroused suspicion.
I rather suspect that it was the fact that the cards were not to be sent to Spain that triggered the alert. At least, I don’t buy the line about the handwriting arousing suspicion: KAH was suffering from Parkinson’s, and one of the earliest symptoms of Parkinson’s is changes in the handwriting.
33.3 Mollier.
33.3 Al Hilli.
33.3 Lone fruit cake / Serial fruit cake.
http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=http://www.ledauphine.com/&prev=search
This awful house-jacking, sounds similar to the Communal-Tournier event, except that
J.P. fought back and his wife was murdered.
What a terrifying place to live.
…and I’m 99.9% sure, it one of those !
The above house-jacking happened on September 15, 2012
And another armed robbery of a campsite
Three men were indicted for robbery with violence in the armed robbery committed at Curbans in November 2014 at Lake camping. The three respondents, aged 25, 27 and 28, remain in Gap, La Saulce and Marseille. They were imprisoned in the jail Baumettes in Marseille.
On the evening of November 13, 2014, around 22:30, three masked individuals armed with a shotgun, had entered the bungalow campsite manager. They had managed to abscond with 3,000 euros in cash as well as travelers checks and checkbooks.
http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=http://www.ledauphine.com/&prev=search
Yet, when I suggested Sylvain Mollier might have taken his shooter with him, when he went out for his last, fatal cycle ride, i was scorened.
If he had gone up to Le martinet, armed to the teeth, he might have lived.
Betton Bettonet, Savoie
is where the September 15th, 2012 house-jacking took place,
five miles down the main road from Grignon.
Burglars entered the house in the middle of the night. Surprised by the people, they did not flee.
They transformed their intrusion in a robbery with sequestration. The police call this kind of aggression, unfortunately common, a “home-jacking” or “salami slicing”. He tried by the Assize Court of Savoy from today was committed to September 15, 2012 Betton-Bettonet in Val Gelon. A couple, then aged 67 and 71, has been the victim. The husband and wife stayed for over an hour in the custody of bandits. Four men including one, the driver, was going back and forth between the outside and inside of the house.
Wounded with a knife
Violent self, home flight was also committed with brutality. The unfortunate hostages were beaten both. The man, who was recovering from surgery, was threatened with death and beaten in the thigh with a knife.
It was a heart attack during the attack and spent then a few days in intensive care. The perpetrators took away booty consisting of cash, jewelry and two cell phones. They tied up their victims before leaving. Mobile, a suspicious vehicle crossed that night by gendarmes La Rochette, led investigators to three Kosovars and Albanians have been indicted for these facts. And appear before the jury this morning Ramiz Jakupi, 55, and Lucjano Abazaj, 35.
The latter was arrested in Switzerland, released and deported to Albania, was finally caught. Missing from the box Astrit Bobaj, 25, and Behar Kolukaj 25 years. The first arrested in Switzerland, was released and deported without being delivered to the French. The second was expelled from France before being involved in the case. Verdict Friday.
Peter, there is another man in Spain who was a friend of Khadim and Zaid. They spoke to in the hours after he was told by a friend of the news, that was on the 6th. Not likely to be the old housekeeper, an Iraqi.
As for the signature, exactly my thoughts, he was also aged and could have had a poor memory.
Now you will ask for the Iraqis his name, he lived and/or worked nearby.
Hey James, that leaves 0.01%, a favourite of the French Police.
Segolene Royal ( mother of the children of President Francois Hollande)has urged FRENCH people to stop eating Nutella because it is made with palm oil and damages the environment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33163534
Have not these FRENCH government people got anything better to do with their time, like saving the FRENCH economy?
M.
You wrote “I would prefer to see Zaid go to France, with his lawyer and a British Police Officer, than remain apart spitting bile.”
I have to say that I have a lot of sympathy for Zaid both in general and on this particular issue.
‘Monsieur Le Procureur’ made some astonishing remarks early on to the effect that, if he had his way, Zaid would have already been arrested, left to sweat in jail, then interrogated.
The clear inferrence was that if Zaid was dumb enough to go to france he would be be banged up and left to sweat. Indefinitely.
Not to mention le Proc’s contemptuous remarks about the ‘right to silence’.
Did he think his intemperate remarks would not be reported by the UK media?
Perhaps he sees his remarks as ‘gentle encouragement’ to visit france where he would be welcomed and receive board and lodging gratis and they could all have a ‘nice chat’.
Good In Parts, it is my opinion. Zaid was arrested because of his refusal to travel.
I do think Maillaud was too quick out of the traps with regard to much of his rhetoric relating to the murders and in particular the al-Hilli family.
Problem is when it has been said, well you cannot put the genie back in the bottle.
I err towards Peter and the idea of honour or reputation, Saad was a nuisance, much of his story telling very one sided, it is the way we all behave when we want sympathy from listeners.
Something interests me and it is the lack of Saad telling all and sundry of the existence of the money in Geneva, someone with half a brain would have hinted gently the matter could be sorted out if the brothers split the assets, giving Saad enough money to buy out Zaids share of the Claygate house, no matter what perceived idea he had of all the work he had done it, Alabdi did not speak highly about the interior, Steadman now says a ceiling has fallen down and their is a water leak. Of course, this could be as a result of the forensics carried out.
Intriguing is this from the book, page 141:
I asked Zaid to confirm whether their father had left a Will or not.
“The only Will was that he had signed,” Zaid replied. “But Saad didn’t want to use it. Fine, he didn’t want to use it.”
Then all the stuff about the bank freezing the account when the father had a stroke…
“He had a carer and all that. What they (carers) know, we don’t know.”
Mr Zanni told a Swiss newspaper he fraudulently attempted to acquire two credit cards….
“No, my father did apply for these,” Zaid replied. “HE WAS HERE WHEN HE APPLIED. That was the only matter.”
Page 143:
Zaid also rejected the claim that on September 3, 2012 – just two days before he died – Saad called the bank to forewarn them of his next visit. He was said to be extremely disturbed when he made the call. According to Zaid, Saad would ever have made such a call because he knew the account was frozen.
Too much else to repeat verbatim. I am sure if Zaid and his French lawyer now have access to the file they will be able to see what evidence there is to back this up. According to Steadman, the accountant “Saad recorded what had been going on and I think police have been able to get it off the hard drive.”
The book does not help Zaid, I expect there are others who are disappointed with Tom Parrys personal conclusions. Then again, the book has the byline ‘The inside story of the al-Hilli murders’.
M.
You wrote “it is my opinion. Zaid was arrested because of his refusal to travel.”
The questions in my previous post were rhetorical. Eric is clearly an intelligent and articulate man and surely realised that pressing Zaids buttons through the media, as he did, would lead to an impasse.
This must have been his goal, and he achieved it.
Sotto Voce – When I get ahold of zees witch, I shall duck her in my witch-testing pond until she confesses.
See, the fact that she will not come and swim in my pond proves that she is a witch! Arrest her!!
@ M.
The statement that Saad would never have called the bank to arrange an appointment because he knew that the account was frozen is a non-sequitur: one cannot simply waltz into a private bank without an appointment, as all clients have their own dedicated client advisors. If anything, ZAH probably means that it would not have made sense for SAH to visit the bank at all. That is not a bad point: Unless he wanted to go there in order to present documents establishing his title to half (or whatever) of the money, there is nothing that could not have been discussed over the phone in five minutes.
Am I the only one to feel that Saad had become slightly unhinged in the run-up to the murders? One thing in particular I really don’t get: He told all and sundry that he feared for his life, he behaved like a man who expects trouble, recording all his phone calls and so forth – yet he apparently never did what almost everybody conscious of his own mortality does, i. e., make a will. It really puzzles me that a devoted father and family man fearing for his life would not try to see his wife and children right.
KAH’s buddy in Malaga was another Iraqi exile called Mohamed Alaa Hussein. However, I don’t think that he ever acted as KAH’s carer or housekeeper.
M.
You wrote “Something interests me and it is the lack of Saad telling all and sundry of the existence of the money in Geneva”
Yes, it interests me too. The closest I can think of, was possibly by allusion, when telling a neighbour that ‘he was working on an £800,000 deal’. This though was ambiguous, as it could have referred to the value of the Claygate house.
There were some other good points in your post – but busy now – shall reply later or tomorrow.
Peter
No you are not. Unfortunately am busy now – shall reply later or tomorrow.
09/2012 -> 100% SM
06/2015 -> 100% SAH
Peter, I agree on Saads state of mind, if Maillaud was playing with Zaid, then Zaid before that was playing with Saad, maybe he was hoping he would give in, give up the fight.
I wonder which Will Zaid refers to ?
We do not know the involvement of Mr Hussein in Mr al-Hilli, the elder, affairs, a person close enought to speak to in the hours after the names of the dead and Zaid was informed, by a friend, not the Police, is it not usual in the UK for the family to be informed first ?
Good In Parts, or the money in the bank.
Maillaud admits it was the altercation from the October before and the siblings argument over the money, which just so happens to be in a bank only an hours drive from their final destination around Lake Annecy. Zaid furthering suspicion by denying their was a dispute between he and his brother.
What was the purpose of driving to the otherside of Paris, whilst towing a caravan, with Mother-in-law and kids ?
A direct drive to Annecy even with a few stops would have only been about 12 hours maximum.
Why via Rouen ? Was it to collect something or see someone ? Had they travelled all the way to St. Macaire where the ruin was still for sale, that would be nothing unusual.
I also agree, that Mr.Maillaud was goading Zaid, he expected him to become annoyed
and say he wdid not trust the FRENCH and would not be going to FRANCE.
so, that must be what Maillaud hoped for, thus in the minds of the simple public inferring guilt on Zaid because he refused FRENCH justice.
@ M
As GIP saud “Monsieur Le Procureur made some astonishing remarks…..”
I think Eric “forgot” the “innocent until proven guilty” thing that surrounds the legal system and went straight for the “1938” approach.
The old “Lets not bother with evidence. Lets go straight to water boarding” was a mistake Eric has to live with unfortunately. The “Gill Dando” murder investigation team had a similar attitude. 1. It cost them dear in compensation payments 2. It cost a person dear in years lost 3. The killer was never found.
As well as not winning Eric many favours, the general (possibly “knee jerk”) opinion to such remarks was… “what are the French hiding ?”
Just a note… Wasn’t KAH in a nursing home in Benalmadena at the time of his death ? (no idea how that was funded either !).
By annoying Zaid, publicly, then Zaid publicly saying he did not trust the FRENCH and would not be going to FRANCE was a strategy used by Maillaud to slow things down,
it has worked, two and thre quarter years down the combe nothing has happened.
In my oppinion, he has used a similar stratergy with the motorcyclist.
Why would Maillaud want to slow things down?
Justice delayed is justice denied
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_delayed_is_justice_denied