The mainstream media for the most part has moved on. But there are a few more gleanings to be had, of perhaps the most interesting comes from the Daily Mirror, which labels al-Hilli an extremist on the grounds that he was against the war in Iraq, disapproved of the behaviour of Israel and had doubts over 9/11 – which makes a great deal of the population “extremist”. But the Mirror has the only mainstream mention I can find of the possibility that Mossad carried out the killings. Given Mr al-Hilli’s profession, the fact he is a Shia, the fact he had visited Iran, and the fact that Israel heas been assassinating scientists connected to Iran’s nuclear programme, this has to be a possibility. There are of course other possibilities, but to ignore that one is ludicrous.
Which leads me to the argument of Daily Mail crime reporter, Stephen Wright, that the French police should concentrate on the idea that this was a killing by a random Alpine madman or racist bigot. Perfectly possible, of course, and the anti-Muslim killings in Marseille might be as much a precedent as Mossad killings of scientists. But why the lone madman idea should be the preferred investigation, Mr Wright does not explain. What I did find interesting from a man who has visited many crime scenes are his repeated insinuations that the French authorities are not really trying very hard to find who the killers were, for example:
the crime scene would have been sealed off for a minimum of seven to ten days, to allow detailed forensic searches for DNA, fibres, tyre marks and shoe prints to take place.
Nearby bushes and vegetation would have been searched for any discarded food and cigarette butts left by the killer, not to mention the murder weapon.
But from what I saw at the end of last week, no such searches had taken place and potentially vital evidence could have been missed. House to house inquiries in the local area had yet to be completed and police had not made specific public appeals for information about the crime. No reward had been put up for information about the shootings.
Behind the scenes, what other short cuts have been taken? Have police seized data identifying all mobile phones being used in the vicinity of the murders that day?
The idea that the French authorities – who are quite as capable as any other of solving cases – are not really trying very hard is an interesting one.
Which leads me to this part of a remarkable article from the Daily Telegraph, which if true points us back towards a hit squad and discounts the ides that there was only one gun:
Claims that only one gun was used to kill everybody is likely to be disproved by full ballistics test results which are out in October.
While the 25 spent bullet cartridges found at the scene are all of the same kind, they could in fact have come from a number of weapons of the same make.
This throws up the possibility of a well-equipped, highly-trained gang circling the car and then opening fire.
Both children were left alive by the killers, who had clinically pumped bullets into everybody else, including five into Mr Mollier.
Zainab was found staggering around outside the car by Brett Martin, a British former RAF serviceman who cycled by moments after the attack, but he saw nobody except the schoolgirl.
Her sister, Zeena, was found unscathed and hiding in the car eight hours later.
Both sisters are now back in Britain, and are believed to have been reunited at a secret location near London.
There are of course a number of hit squad options, both governmental and private, which might well involve iraqi or Iranian interests – on both of which the mainstream media have been very happy to speculate while almost unanimously ignoring Israel.
But what interests me is why the Daily Telegraph choose, in the face of all the evidence, to minimise the horrific nature of the attack by stating that “Both children were left alive by the killers”? Zainab was not left alive by design, she was shot in the chest and her skull was stove in, which presumably was a pretty serious attempt to kill a seven year-old child. The other girl might very well have succeeded in hiding from the killers under her mother’s skirts, as she hid from the first rescuers, and then for eight hours from the police.
The Telegraph article claims to be informed by sources close to the investigation. So they believe it was a group of people, and feel motivated to absolve those people from child-killing. Now what could the Daily Telegraph be thinking?
The latest events have me asking what were the recent arrests about?
The Annecy police must have had this guy on their radar so why arrest in Feb 2014?
If the plan was to run down the non-investigation until people like us died ofF from year after year of murky misinformation, why arrest anyone? Let it lie?
* Were the French responding to outside pressure to provide results?
* Did they have a local tip off, perhaps as a result of the release of the e-fit?
* They didn’t appear to really have anything on him in the end. It must have been a long shot to bring him in and sweat him without having anything concrete – The guy was on the job, he knew how that would work. So why not sweat him quietly? Why have Maillaud announce it to the whole planet, if there was a strong likelihood nothing would come of it?
* Why did Maillaud get back on his Cheval(ine)? Didnt he retire from the case last Autumn at the press conference?
* Did they wait until the municipal police had fired him so as to distance the authorities from this suspect? The dismissal charge was pretty unbelievable. It wouldn’t be brought against anyone who was generally towing the line, hard to prove too.
* Was this a way of bringing him in line – giving him a scare – so as not to give up something he knew? (He doesn’t appear to have been charged with the arms trafficking they were boasting about) If they reliably needed his silence though, why not just suicide him?
* Maybe there are others that are being sent a message
* Perhaps people in the forces played some part of this operation back in 2012. (Police and Forestry?) Perp(s)were known to the French and the cover up was part of keeping their name out of it.
* Perhaps the Nazi cop got carried away, stopped the Al Hillis to give them some old fashioned racist hospitality, SM intervened and he snapped, blew SM away then, since he may have ID’d himself, he had to take everybody out. His right wing friends got him extracted and that was what the cover up was always about? Something I have reluctantly toyed with but cant quite buy.
I predict that these arrests will be the last chapter in this mystery for a long time. MH-370 has already sucked some life out of the issue here at CL, even though there is significantly less info on that than this, and will likely remain so.
Maybe we should spend 50 posts summarizing the data and outlining the various categories of solutions from most to least likely, as some have already provided.
Intp1, with regard to your speculation on whether that last arrest of ED was meant to “send a message” –
Bluebird on the previous page (can’t go look for the comment now, but it was in response to my query) has laid out some possibilities, using this line of deduction.
ED, he suggested, could have been the one supplying the Luger, so he knew.
The builder – Fillion-Robin filed for bankrupcy last year. perhaps helped along a bit for supplying undesirable time “data”, necessitating the famous 3:15pm picture at Drousard which then meesed up everything.
The murder at Lathuille is another “curiosity’ with possible tie-in.
Then later, a strange attack at FBM offices, the outfit that published those pictures.
BB may be right on all or part, but I liked the way he strung it all together.
And I agree with you, Intp1 – there is great interest in making Chevaline away. Even here, among dedicated conspiratorialists, interest wanes when a still greater mystery comes along, like MH370. Now conveniently ditched in the Indian ocean, one of the deepest and remotests parts. Just like Chevaline was “ditched’ and buried in fog.
Actually, whether the case goes away completely into the cold files or not, depends on whether the british desire it to disappear. As you know, Tim V and I believe that there is every indication that whatever happened in Chevaline irked the brits no end, and they (whoever ‘they’ are) have every intention of needling the French periodically (and probably whoever else was involved).
Unfortunately, that’s really ALL there seems to be pushing towards a resolution of the case. Mollier’s family has little interest, it seems, in finding out anything, and the Al Hilli family – well, the sister got the kids to look after and perhaps the quid-pro-quo was to not press too hard on resolutions.
The absolute silence of the british regarding their investigations is really a scream for attention, even as the french ‘bungling’ of their side of the investigation has a ‘made for the cameras’ theatrical feel about it. A scream and a laugh – that seems to be all the Al Hillis and Sylvain Mollier deserve from the PTBs. With only a few conspiratorially-minded, somewhat querrelous individuals, thinly spread the world over to care. And even they can only keep it up so long.
Quite the tragedy, really.
ver at the Natural News site, there is an article on MH370, and how past news stories will soon be scrubbed…sound familiar?
Proposal:
In the spirit of the title of this string, and specifically to provide for those children, a summary of possibilities, if and when they want to find out more, without wading through, just at this site, 26,000 posts.
I.e we create a summary, a list for comparison of the reasonable, candidate solutions – Outlining Pros and cons.
We could put it in a shared file, with responsible contributors filling it in as each possibility is reviewed. Or maybe there is a smarter method? Later we could talk to Jon about somehow publishing it here or linking it within this site. Goal, to have ready in weeks rather than months?
Marlin, Tim V, Im asking you (and any other serious contributors) if you are interested in helping to implement and shape such an initiative, which for me personally would represent some kind of closure, pending significant developments.
Now that we’re hearing about Inmarsat satellites (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/24/flight-mh370-inmarsat-aaib-analysis), I would like to point out the other 1990s technology used to track ships:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_Identification_System
Ironically, Saad al-Hilli worked for SSTL, which developed satellite systems to tap into the AIS system.
http://www.exactearth.com/news/2012-10-16/
One of those satellites was launched into orbit in July 2012, with payload performance testing completed by mid-October 2012. As we recall, the incident at Chevaline occurred on September 5, 2012. The exactView-1 (EV-1) satellite was expected to begin full commercial operation in November 2012.
From the Guardian article above:
“After its creation, Inmarsat’s maritime role rapidly expanded to providing connectivity for airlines, the media, oil and gas companies, mining and construction in remote areas, and governments.
Privatised at the end of the 1990s, it was floated on the stock market in 2004, and now focuses on providing services to four main areas: maritime, enterprise (focused on businesses including aviation), civil and military work for the US government, and civil and military work for other governments. The US is the largest government client, generating up to a fifth of its revenues of about £1bn annually. The firm employs about 1,600 staff.”
TARGET FOR TONIGHT !
This is how you get things done.
Just had an email back from a “well known French regional newspaper”.
I informed them that “it would appear that someone was using an obituary photograph of a deceased person publish (under copyright) in their newspaper”.
You’d never guess what they said !?!?
They said…. “they wish contact the proprietor of the site to exact the IP address”
They didn’t inform me of the action they wish to take…but the reply was rather swift !
Ya shouldn’t use “dead people” as avatars ! Maybe Ken can inform us of waht action they take…. or Jon may do that ? Or Craig ?
@Jon
Can you inform us when “a French newspaper” contact you with regard the usage of a dead persons picture by “Ken”.
Dying to find out how French media laws work….when requesting IP addresses.
Jon, just for the record – the rest of us could care less what avatar Kenneth uses. We care about content of posts, that’s all.
Furthermore, that particular photo we are not even sure belongs to Frederic Brun, who was reported killed in a strange car accident not long after Chevaline. This particular photo could have been included in the obituary as sort of an “inside” code to individuals in the know – to go along with a rather starange poem, on which many here spent hours trying to figure out. When it comes to Chevaline, nothing is what it seems, and we definitely do not know whether that particular photo ever belonged to one, Frederic Brun, or was imported from somewhere.
Hope no effort will be spent on silly requests by any poster here, whether or not they take offense to some other poster.
As for posts and posters, several in the past put up posts that were blatantly offensive, or deliberately pick fights with others, and there was quite a bit of spam too (hardly a surprise given the length of this thread and the subject matter). By rights, it is those posts that should be removed, for propriety’s sake and to keep things as ‘clean’ as feasible. Little tiffies between posters are best ignored – or at least that’s my preference..
I am not sure, BTW, that it is illegal or even wrong to use a picture of deceased individuals as avatar. For example, how about a photo of Queen Victoria? after all she is and has been for quite some time quite deceased. What about princess Di? or Richard the III? or perhaps someone to be cherished as a memorium?
Anyways, best to ignore, is my recommendation.
Intp1 – 10:15am. I think that’s a great idea and am willing to lend a hand. A summary of all that’s gone on and the different theories proposed would be a great contribution, IMO. Hopefully between several of us, we can maintain a certain amount of objectivity 9and, of course, civility), whether or not a particular piste is anyone’s favorite. the non-favorites have their uses too, after all.
I have, for some time been actually collecting some of those theories but it’s not in a readable or easy format yet (haven’t had the time). My list included even a few theories I felt had merit from MZT people, like Max’s (who did contribute the novel and original “double trip” concept). It most assuredly includes a couple of versions of the “extraction” theory, for completeness sake.
I also agree that this is a good time to embark on such an effort, given the current lull with nothing new happening, even as the “authorities” seem hell bent on releasing as little information as possible.
One suggestion: in the past, Lars, on MZT collected a matrix of known facts about the principals on that blog (there was some argument, I recall on whether to “copyright” that; may be they did something because at the moment, it is not visible, to my knowledge). I have independently, for a time, prepared something similar (but using information primarily from this blog) in the form of a matrix, but didn’t finish it (time…again). I could dust that off and toil a bit to complete – at least with regards to the key personalities. This could serve as a kind of “prologue”.
Personally, I wish we could combine forces with Max and Lars, now on Deadzone, but reckon that may be complicated, as we “evolved’ on different blogs with different outlooks.
I know Q is a whiz at finding lost comments and other information and of course, bluebird is the resident research department for all things that go far and wide into individuals’ histories and connections. He may not be too inclined though for the laboriousness of a summary effort, but surely won’t mind if we use the results of his research as data points.
Tim V and NR have been quite engaged on the Disappearing Aircraft thread. I’ll see if i can “ping” either (assuming they got their SATCOMS “on”).
@Marlin 12:24am
Agree wholeheartedly – like you say I couldn’t care less. However I do find personal attacks, threats and bulling offensive.
(btw I don’t think CM, Jon etc are in the business of disclosing posters details without being forced to. This site is hosted in The Netherlands (where online privacy is protected and even big media can’t get their way in getting sites blocked for copyright reasons) – I suspect there is a reason for that choice of hosting!)
@ Marlin
27 Mar, 2014
Great,
Any input on format?
My thought was a spreadsheet, to keep it simple.
Here are some ideas for headers of columns:
*Candidate Solution
*Evidence for
*EXPLAINS only if
*Does not explain or Evidence against
* Evaluation Score/Grade of likelihood of idea taking into account evidence reliability/probability/corroboration
The ideas could be organized in general category groups e.g. Lone Nut, Intelligence Operation etc.
There could be other tabs listing the whens, wheres, whos for reference.
At this moment this is brainstorming with normal brainstorming rules but personally I do want to keep it simple because I don’t have the time to help organize anything too cumbersome and complicated.
Anybody else has ideas at this time, please pipe up.
This site was moved to hosting in the Netherlands to avoid British libel law:
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2007/09/alisher_usmanov/
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2007/09/usmanov_redux/
The hosts never taken pages down due to any libel threat,, but I don’t think they’ve ever been asked for server log details.
This site has no special security arrangements; normal server logs are kept. Traffic is unencrypted (ie. http not https) and thus can be read en route. The DNS chain involves companies in the US as well as the EU, so you have to assume that the NSA can make a list of every page you visit:
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2012/10/presidential-debate-sends-me-to-bed/#comment-369405
It’s also possible to work out the e-mail address you submit from the Gravatar traffic; this is a weakness in Gravatar.
Marlin
All I can say is….
If I was a family member and saw the photograph of my son or brother, being used in such a way….then I likely would be “none to happy”.
You know what “the French” can be like. A tad “touchy” about such things.
James, one of the points I was trying to make is that the photo MAY NOT be of the deceased person. Yes, it was in the obituary but you may recall (I think you were around then) of the huge discussion we had over the strangeness of that obituary. The photo may be emblematic of the weird things going on with Chevaline – we here – and on MZT at the time – and on david icke – could never confirm it was Frederic Brun.
Just to jog memory further – it was said then that Brun was in the hairdressing business, like Lydia Ringot, Mollier’s ex-wife. I do recall pointing out that the photo did not look like very hairdresser-like – stated as one who has gone to not a few hairdressers. There was something way off about it for me. My hunch was that it was one or the other – either he is in the hairdressing business OR that’s his actual photo. Not both.
I thought at the time that’s why kenneth decided to use that photo as avatar – as a reminder that nothing is/was as it seems and that someone was/is playing games with us all. I don’t think it was meant as disrespect to the actual individual who may have passed away, whoever it was that died in that accident.
I understand you don’t like kenneth Sorenson. While some of his posts do raise eye brows here and there (when he wanders a bit off on one of his tangents) he could also make himself quite useful (remember? he used to import comments and information from CM into DI, when people were worried they were messing around with news items and scrubbing information off the internet. And vice versa – he’d alert us to things posted on that blog as well.
Let it go James. In truth any of us (myself included) would be considered a bit peculiar for even keeping up with Chevaline after all this time, so personally I try to stay away from throwing stones at glass houses. The conspiracy theorizing “business” attracts all types – that’s just the way it is. If your pilot friends knew of your little hobby here, for example, they’d probably raise some eye brows too. Not to mention my own friends, family and colleagues.
Intep1, 11;10Am.
like the spreadsheet idea. I’ll comment a bit more later when time permits.
In the meantiome, one question n- how and where can we post the spreadsheet so that it is accessible easily while maintaining everyone’s preferred annonimity? I think there’s a web site for that – but personally I never tried this before.
The idea should be that people can add information and/or question it – but also I believe it’d need someone(s) to have override editorial privileges. Just to make sure there are not too many pointless tangents and/or messing around with the information to make it unwieldy.
Ideas/suggestions welcome.
Where the heck is Tim V? surely not gone to the south Indian ocean looking for debris, I hope….
The photo is of the late Frederic Brun you just need to know where to look to proof it
There is a difference between Frederique and Frederic – usually between 1 and 4 inches long when flacid
For what it’s worth, I think it’s illegal in France to take & publish someone else’s photograph without permission.
So therefore using an image as an avatar,without permission,probably is too.
Katie,
What’s in France stays in France. I am aware they have somewhat peculiar attitude to copyrights and public disclosures but this blog is not published in France or by a Frenchman. neither is David Icke. And kenneth is not french per his own admission, and many of us are neither. So whatever. If Brun or family members do not wish that photo to be used, they should be the ones to say so, whoever and wherever they are (not that anyone from Chevaline ever talks about anything, do they?**). As far as I can see it is public property, once published. Perhaps if someone objects to use of the published fascimile as avatar, they should step up and prove that it does indeed belong to said dead individual, and make a legally binding request to prohibit its use. By all means, I would love to hear any requests/opinions that the late Frederic’s family and friends might have.
DDT, too criptique for me. How about a little hint? what I said was that the photo is EITHER of Frederic OR he is not a hairdresser, because the two do not correlate so well. But yes, most of us here have failed to connect the photot to the individual, though I do vaguely recall there was somewhere a picture thought to be of Brun that we looked at. Can’t remember the time frame though and this blog is way too unwieldy by now to search through.
** Note in passing; i think we may be excused for being a bit sarcastic when it comes to family members of deceased people in Chevaline/Ugine. We have seen absolutely not the slightest evidence that anyone in Sylvain Mollier’s family ecares that much that he met such a violent end, and/or have ever lifted a finger to help find the perpetrator(s). For a relatively well off family like the Schutz’s they should have put up a reward, if only for appearance’s sake. But perhaps they – like all the good people of Ugine/Chevaline – they couldn’t be bothered to as much as say a single good word on his behalf. At least Frederic (not Frederique!) got a half-way decent – if enigmatic – obituary. What did Sylvain Mollier get? a dry looking note about the funeral. Not a single word of praise or sorrow.
So we suspect that Frederic at least had a friend or two. Certainly Saad Al Hilli had several friends who spoke well of him. But Sylvain? not one! I always found that rather puzzling. If a mere philanderer be he, his death from unnatural causes still deserves an epitaph or two. No one should be that forgotten. Sometimes I get the feeling that the only ones who care a hoot about either Sylvain or Frederic are us, online detectives and conspiracy buffs. And that i find kind of sad. Quite so.
@katie – you may be correct – but that is in France – not The Netherlands where this site is hosted, or even Denmark where the image may have been posted from.
Assuming the image is their copyright, does anyone really image a French media company will spend money trying to enforce copyright, on a image that has no real commercial value, in The Netherlands. Take a look here if you want to see the official Dutch attitude to the internet:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_the_Netherlands
To my mind this smacks of mock outrage to try and get petty revenge on another poster because of a personal dislike. (for clarity I’m not suggesting you, Katie, are doing this)
For the record:
1) I usually disagree with most of the views posted by Mr Sorensen.
2) I don’t advocate violating copyright
3) I don’t advocate using photos of living or dead private individuals without permission
“It turned out [Thailand] actually bought the satellite from the French (EADS). This satellite (“Thaichote”) was purchased and is managed by GISTDA, Thai’s space agency. But the technology is the same as one that powers the French satellites that provided images of the “12 pieces” floating in the ocean reported a few days before.”
Above from a comment elsewhere. The French have superior satellites? Or the best Russia has are monitoring Pussy Riot, US ones are watching Miley Cyrus and satellites of the UK are all tasked with tracking paedophiles and roma who might possibly just maybe have been within 30 miles of Our Maddie some long years ago in Portugal.
@intp1 – Have you considered setting up a wiki?
http://www.wikihow.com/Start-a-Wiki
Would be an ideal platform for what you want to do.
@Marlin
27 Mar, 2014 – 8:36 pm
So, again Im open to ideas from anyone but my idea would be to keep document(s) on a sharing site like google docs. Im not a big fan of google recently but they are free and stable.
We could discuss each candidate solution here publicly, and canvas for input. We can also ask for ideas that people have for solutions or that they may remember from 10000 posts ago or from other sites.
From the input and their own ideas the editors can add the data in the “Evidence for” and “Only if” etc. fields and rank the ideas for likelihood.
This would be during construction of the document. Anybody could view it but a few people (3 ?) would have editing rights. There could also be a private sandbox version for work in progress.
The selection of editors is up to the existing ones. It would not be an elite club and not be the only source of ideas, rather functional in that editing work has to be done and also subjective voting on ideas. It looks like Myself and you at the moment (I agree that TimV would be good if he wants to (for his grasp of the timeline alone) but it should be based on demonstrated analytical contributions, integrity, minimal belligerence and most importantly, the highest degree of certainty that they are not “water muddiers”.
The rankings are arbitrary, subjective and arguably not needed but if we create a ranking system of likelihood, say 1-10. if an idea doesn’t even reach the lowest ranking of say unlikely (estimated 1 in 1000) but not impossible, it isn’t recorded. The rankings should be an average from votes of the editors. Keeping in mind 2 opposing concepts: a) That the true solution could easily be an unlikely one since after years of discussion we don’t have a clear favorite. b) We don’t want to waste limited time on crazy, unsupported by anything, theories.
When the document has reached maturity with most ideas exhausted, discussed and ranked, we can either leave it on the share website or, I have noticed that CraigMurray has some document links in another subject string. We could ask Jon if this string could have such a document posted.
Getting the editors in touch and maintaining privacy is tricky, but I have some ideas on it. Each one would have to supply one e-mail account.
Bleb
28 Mar, 2014
Re a personal Wiki
Yes I heard you could do that but I know not how it works. I will look into it.
Thanks, do you have practical experience of one?
I’m afraid that the likelyhood of this succeeding is very small. If ten people were committed to this, it might succeed. But we only have Marlin and Intp1 committed to this, so the chances of this succeeding is very small. But Intp1 can start by translating that video that Marlin didn’t understand. That’s a start. Intp1 likes to translate and he has time on his hands- so: Go on an translate1. This is also a confidence building measure. When you have translated this piece that Marlin didn’t understand, he will have the required goodwill to engage in the proposed page.
But if you’re goimg to do it, I propose using Google.sites, where everyone with a google account can contribute, and the administrator — say, Intp1 — can at any time delete inputs. But very fewq will be interested, so there is no reason to fear any vandalism. This is always the problem, when people set up individual websites; There are 10 billio0n websites in the world, and the very reason that we are assembled here, is because there are others. If you go on you’re own, there really will be no other than Intp1 and Marlin. I’m not saying this to deter yoy, but in order to knock some realism into your
Bluebird
Here’s a very interesting BBC documentary from 2011 about the braking of ‘Tunny’, or the German Lorenz dechyphering system. It’s the first time I ever hear of this,- and indeed a full account was first given as late as 2006 – so that might explain why you, Bluebird , also never have heard of it.
The remarkable thing is, that the British were able to warn the Russians about the impending Battle of Kursk – how the Germans planned a pincer-movement, and the complete order of battle! Soi the Russians weere ready – and from there on started the 2,000 kilometer retreat all the way to Berlin. I assure you, I thought I knew everything there was to know about WW2, but this is the first time I hear it. Because it was a secret – pretty much until 2006, when the first book by Jerry Robert‘s collegue appeared.
Intp1 – Google document share is effective and relatively easy to use, though my experience is limited on the details. the main issue i see is that there is this aversion to Google these days due to privacy issues.
Wiki, as suggested by Bleb is an option – I never used that one either and have to look into the details of how easy it is to use. Of course, it’ll have the same privacy issues as Google. From cursory reading it’d also seem that the best features on it are available for pay.
I know there are other options available, some more secure than others, but need to take a bit of time to research and think through the platform issue. Perhaps over the week-end.
Regarding editors and editing – agree with all that you say – 3-4 would be a good number — we may lose some potentially good help due to the need for an e mail, but I don’t see that as a big problem. Your criteria for editing as pointed out are right on the money, but willingness to lend a hand may be the biggest issue. As I see it, it does kind of boil down to analytic types who care to dig a bit through past suggestions and scenarios and can keep their own personal preferences under control. Do you think there’s any merit in asking among the ex-MZT people whether any would like to participate? especially if we don’t have enough volunteering from here? I liked both max and lars – for their willingness to plow through a process and ability to stay focused. That despite the fact that I disagree with the outcome – and was never able to decide whether the preferences shown and reluctance to consider scenarios more broadly were due to an agenda or just a personal preference for certain type of mystery modeling.
regarding criteria for ranking: I can put some thought into that as I’ve had some experience with risk modeling and failure analysis. no need to make too complicated, but the devil is in agreeing on details of likelihood criteria.
Take for example the “extraction” scenario. It has several strokes going for it, including dearth of photos of some of the principals and, of course, the weirdness of the aftermath, with Zeena found so much later and Zainab recovering so very fast from such grievous wounds. My estimate, disregarding motives, the likelihood based on “conflict with known facts” would be, say, about 40-50% (meaning, there are only a couple of OBSERVABLE facts that would be difficult to explain, such as the embalming and the children). However, if we include the criterion of COMPLEXITY as a weighting factor (ie, the many who’d have to be in the know, plus need for “actors” etc), the probability will have to be significantly cut – to something just under 10% (that’s my own estimate). Which is low but not negligible.
For this part of the exercise (ranking and likelihood probability), I could make some specific proposal pretty quickly to put out there and see if people agree.
Sorry ppl to have neglected this thread. I’m afraid the other and inquiring minds has soaked up all my time concentrating on the lost plane. It seems to take me hours to produce anything or even just read the posts. Having been asked to transfer, I immediately got attacked by whoever goes under the name of “James” in a particularly nasty and personal fashion. He adopted the same tactic on here from the beginning so I regard him with considerable apprehension, aware that as one of the most prominent web sites, agencies must apply at least a watchful eye if not an active participation.
Now you may or may not have seen bang up to date reports that Grenoble prosecutors (this time) are investigating the photo leaks which apparently came from police sources. Strangely when I tried accessing the afp ref. it came up “oops!” Ifound it elsewhere as here:
http://news.yahoo.com/france-investigates-alps-murder-photo-leaks-133940658.html
BMFTV are in their sights from whom other outlets copied before they withdrew them under pressure I believe. It appears the French police were seriously embarrassed by them. I’m afraid I was one who drew obvious conclusions from them that disproved police stories, in fact strongly suggest a police fabrication that they have never explained. Typically authority tackles the truth providers rather than the criminals that put out lies.
It would be ironic wouldn’t it, if the only prosecution after 18 months of intensive police work was the person who allowed us to see the post-killing scene. There are of course many more telling photographs that as yet have never seen the light of day. I hope the gendarmes won’t take a leaf out of the Metropolitan book of tricks. Who did release that little tid bit btw. Not mor tit for tat I hope.
We now have it on record that the two latest photos showing the moribund Mollier were police photos. On the assumption if he lay there untouched the other victims were still in the car (including or excluding Zeena depending on whether they were taken afternoon or next morning) the car occupants certainly show. This may of course be simply light reflection/refraction and the slumped position of the bodies. If it was morning it would have to mean that they left Mollier lying there all night – a bit unlikely i would have thought though the undertaker vans going up and back in the morning seems to support it. So if afternoon photo the rather chilling thought that Zeena was still in the back. Note in contrast to late morning photos by DM there are no white suited gentlemen which tends to support the idea it was before they arrive. In contrast someone has taken the trouble to mark out all observed bullets and/or used casings.
After all this in relation to organising stuff, one has bound to be specifically the proven lies of the police and why they considered it necessary. For example their claim shooting started at the top of the layby when the aerial photo flatly contradicts and rules it out.
I really need to go to bed.
that was meant to be DON’T show. I’m tired….
NR 1:28am “The French have superior satellites? Or the best Russia has are monitoring Pussy Riot, US ones are watching Miley Cyrus and satellites of the UK are all tasked with tracking paedophiles and roma who might possibly just maybe have been within 30 miles of Our Maddie some long years ago in Portugal.”
That was very funny NR. Your wit is sorely needed to lighten up these weighty happenings and dastardly deeds lurking in the shadow of our civilization.
Why, it could even all be true!