About a month ago I asked a former colleague in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office what Hague saw as the endgame in the Julian Assange asylum standoff, and where the room for negotiation lay. My friend was dismissive – the policy was simply to wait for the Presidential election in Ecuador in February. The United States and allies were confident that Correa will lose, and my friend and I having both been senior diplomats for many years we understood what the United States would be doing to ensure that result. With Correa replaced by a pro-USA President, Assange’s asylum will be withdrawn, the Metropolitan Police invited in to the Embassy of Ecuador to remove him, and Assange sent immediately to Sweden from where he could be extradited to the United States to face charges of espionage and aiding terrorism.
I have been struck by the naivety of those who ask why the United States could not simply request Assange’s extradition from the United Kingdom. The answer is simple – the coalition government. Extradition agreements are government to government international treaties, and the decision on their implementation is ultimately political and governmental – that is why it was Teresa May and not a judge who took the final and very different political decisions on Babar Ahmad and Gary Mackinnon.
CIA supporters in the UK have argued vociferously that it would be impossible for Sweden to give Assange the assurance he would not be extradited to the United States, with which he would be prepared to return to Sweden to see off the rather pathetic attempted fit-up there. In fact, as extradition agreements are governmental not judicial instruments, it would be perfectly possible for the Swedish government to give that assurance. Those who argue otherwise, like Gavin Essler and Joan Smith here, are not being truthful – I suspect their very vehemence indicates that they know that.
Most Liberal Democrat MPs are happy to endorse the notion that Assange should be returned to Sweden to face sexual accusations. However even the repeatedly humiliated Lib Dem MPs would revolt at the idea that Assange should be sent to face life imprisonment in solitary confinement in the United States for the work of Wikileaks. That is why the United States has held off requesting extradition from the United Kingdom, to avoid the trouble this would cause Cameron. I am not speculating, there have been direct very senior diplomatic exchanges on this point between Washington and London.
There was confidence that the Correa problem would soon pass, but the State Department has since been shocked by the return of Hugo Chavez. Like Correa, senior US diplomats had convinced themselves – and convinced La Clinton – that Chavez was going to lose. The fury at Chavez’s return has led to a diktat that the same mistake must not be made in Ecuador.
CIA operations inside Ecuador are in any case much less disrupted than in Venezuela. I learn that the US budget, using mostly Pentagon funds, devoted to influencing the Ecuadorean election has, since the Venezuelan result, been almost tripled to US $87 million. This will find its way into opposition campaign coffers and be used to fund, bribe or blackmail media and officials. Expect a number of media scandals and corruption stings against Correa’s government in the next few weeks.
I do not have much background on Ecuadorean politics and I really do not know what Correa’s chances of re-election are. Neither do I know if any of the opposition parties are decent and not in the hands of the USA. But I do know that the USA very much want Correa to lose, were very confident that he was going to lose, and now are not. From their point of view, the danger is that in upping the ante, their efforts will become so obvious they will backfire in a nationalist reaction. My US source however is adamant that the Obama adminstration will not actually use the funds to incite another military coup attempt against Correa. That has apparently been ruled out. Assange being expelled into the arms of the CIA by a newly installed military dictatorship might be a difficult sell even for our appalling mainstream media.
That is why the United States has held off requesting extradition from the United Kingdom, to avoid the trouble this would cause Cameron. I am not speculating, there have been direct very senior diplomatic exchanges on this point between Washington and London.
Thought so. However, there is now increasing media promotion of the idea – not hard to justify – that Cameron is incompetent, and a palace coup is probably in the offing. This would need much less CIA input than offing Chavez, so let’s consider it done. The Hague foetus (I think we can bid Osborne a fond farewell, too) would be much more compliant with American wishes.
“offing….offing” Morphic resonance, sorry.
“CIA supporters” Craig? Really?
Skipjack 22 Oct, 10:42 am : Well, effectively. And that’s what matters.
What a plan to get at one man, I hope that our US contingent here will ensure that the CIA’s money wasting ways are exposed for what they are, a cover up of law abuse, a cover up of diplomatic double speak and a cover up of extradition agreements with Sweden.
Most important, US citizens are duped to think that Assange is bad whilst the despicable foreign policy goals of the US world empire are good for their children’s future.
Party politics and corruption has ruined the politi to such extent that nobody has the chance or inclination to offer alternatives. We only have to look at what the donkeyelephants are prepared to put on the Green Party candidate, a fully eligible presidential candidate is surrounded by police and stopped from joining the debate.
That’s US democracy, intimidation of candidates and Independents. The apathy here in the UIK will lead to the same excesses of power, because we are as fed up with party politics then they are.
Who would bat an eyelid if our police commissioners are returned with just over 10% of the vote?
Nobody! Indeed the papers would be full of praise and support for this rabble policy, talk of mandates and what these police commissioners are going to do, etc.
The way I feel Craig, I think our MSM could sell Hell to God, they are so corrupt, disingenuous and deceitful.
Skipjack
Absolutely. If you want to argue that some give their support unwittingly as “useful idiots”, I would say the effect is the same and the blindness in this case has to be so extreme as to be wilful. Anyone who holds as an ideological principle that rape allegations may never in any circumstances be subjected to critical analysis deserves to be duped by the CIA.
I suspect this is what’s giving Washington nightmares:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-25/china-bankrolling-chavez-s-re-election-bid-with-oil-loans.html
Very revealing comment by Craig – I am beginning to consolidate my knowledge of British diplomacy.
America paid a price for the failed assassination of Hugo Chavez and even the millions of American dollars backing Henrique Capriles in a secure election with American and British MSM support failed to usurp people power.
Operation Venezuela or the ‘Illuminati’ charade, where Venezuelan oligarchy and their CIA/Big Oil backers held rallies in Caracas, were well-countered by supporters of Chavez – marking the anniversary of the deposing of Marcos Perez Jimenez in Venezuela in 1958.
But as with all recent CIA-sponsored Orange/Velvet/Cedar “revolutions”, (remember Iran)- the contradictions are best discovered in the history books. Jimenez, you see, was a right-wing dictator, the polar opposite of the socialist Chavez.
Here endeth the first lesson…
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/grahame-morris-mp/hugo-chavez-venezuela_b_1963705.html
What do you reckon, Komodo, should we write to Hugo Chavez and ask him to use some of these 42.7 billion to counter act the 87 million spent by the CIA to undermine President Correa and get him deposed?
These three seem to be getting on with each other.
http://live.wsj.com/video/ecuador-correa-visits-chavez/6A8222C7-3932-4C4C-A7E3-BDF538489904.html
This is what Amerika has been up to in Colombia, the country connected to the Panamanian isthmus and which lies between Venezuela and Ecuador.
‘Last month’s capture of Colombian drug lord Daniel “El Loco” Barrera by Venezuelan police was hailed as a “victory” in the “war on drugs.”
Barrera, accused of smuggling some 900 tons of cocaine into Europe and the U.S. throughout his infamous career, was described by Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, who announced the arrest on national television, as “the last of the great capos.”
But what of the “capo” who enjoyed high office, is wined and dined by U.S. corporations and conservative think-tanks, owns vast tracks of land, is a “visiting scholar” at a prominent American university (Georgetown) and now sits on the Board of Directors of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation?
When will they be brought to ground?’
http://dissidentvoice.org/2012/10/teflon-president-noose-tightens-around-uribe-as-former-death-squad-leaders-spill-the-beans/
PS The ‘capo’ in question is Álvaro Uribe who was put on the Palmer commission by the UN. It produced the whitewash on the Mavi Marmara slaughter,
[Moderation Warning from Clark – “Inside Mann” seems to be a sock-puppet; see below.]
Don’t get entrenched on Assange. The CIA set out to destroy Assange’s credibility, not put him on trial for him to become a worldwide symbol of info-oppression.
They have achieved their aims – public opinion is divided, journalists are divided, even core Wikileaks supporters are divided.
Yes the US don’t like the very public slap in the face from Correa. But the puppet masters are quietly happy at the outcome, with Assange further discrediting himself running to Ecuador:- that bastion of free speech.
In any case the US would never attempt to extradite Assange from the UK. Why? I have my strong suspicions… Assange is most likely a UK SIS asset.
If I’m right then this throws a cloud of suspicion around a few of his core supporters – look into their background. Army officers turned journalists, anyone?
You might be right about a few things, others may be wrong on key facts. But one thing that is beyond doubt is that extradition from Sweden is likely to be even harder than extradition from the UK. Any CIA plotters would have known this.
There simply was no plot to extradite Assange via Sweden. There may have been two separate operations that have since merged, but there are a lot in the US community aware that putting Assange on trial would only serve to encourage copycat organisations.
The image of a hounded man is far more potent to the plotters than putting that man on trial. It would likely act as an effective deterrent to others whilst leaving the majority sceptical as to whether there ever was a plot in the first place, giving the US plausible dependability and limiting the ability for Assange to become a martyr in solitary confinement.
But your sweeping statements on CIA involvement and intentions are alas far from the mark.
Very true Mary – a penetrating post.
Inside Mann,
I have no idea who you are. People know who I am. My information is from first class sources with direct access whom I know and trust. I am not positing a theory, I am telling you what is happening. You give no grounds to justify your claim to know better.
Another reason for the US (and China) to look longingly at Ecuador:
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/rush-rare-earths
Background: {http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/of02-189/of02-189.pdf}
They’re not all that rare at all in fact. But mineable deposits containing the right ones for modern electronics are like rocking horse manure.
The Yanks have to be pretty dumb if they believed their own propaganda about Venezuela. Even I, sitting in a little flat with a laptop, knew Chavez would almost certainly win. Correa is also very popular. Those dumb Yanks have got their work cut out.
.
It’s interesting though, the idea that an election in Venezuela or Ecuador could really lead to a dramatic change of direction. No-one is suggesting that we simply wait until November to see if the US election changes things in relation to Mr Assange. Because the US election won’t change things. Democracy has moved south.
But one thing that is beyond doubt is that extradition from Sweden is likely to be even harder than extradition from the UK.
But Sweden was the place where the alleged, stress alleged, crime took place. It would not have been as trivially easy to fit him up in the UK, if that is what happened. The CPS would almost certainly have dismissed the allegations out of hand.
On Assange, Borgstrom, the Grauniad…
.
http://rixstep.com/1/20121021,00.shtml
Inside Mann,
Your assumption ‘Assange is most likely a UK SIS asset’ was muckraked a while back. He is not. The attempt by the BBC to destroy Craig’s argument (Murray vs Aaronovitch on Assange) goes some way to prove the point. I believe people realise ‘running to Ecuador’ was the last option for a man who had kissed his legal options goodbye.
“Inside Mann” above appears to be “Scouse Billy”, sock puppeting.
Scouse Billy spreads disinformation, climate change denial, and advocates medical quackery.
Good point, Oliver.
Elections in the US or UK change nothing.
Elections in Ecuador or Venezuela change everything, and even US policy agrees with that assessment.
So clearly democracy works in those countries but it doesn’t work in either the US or UK.
More needs to be made of this. It’s quite disgraceful that even given this very obvious point, our media and politicians are still able to present themselves as other than the dictatorial elites they are.
Inside Mann,
after all that Manning has been through and is still going through (solitary confinement for months, 23h/day naked, still no process after more than 2 years in military prison), the US government does not seem to get a lot of trouble giving the harshest treatment to a whistleblower allegedly the source of some of WikiLeak’s major revelations.
I would not be surprised if they really tried to get Assange and did not care a lot about things like a media outcry – in the US, there wouldn’t be any, probably neither in the UK. Assange doesn’t get a lot of support from Western media these days, to put it mildly.
That and leaked statements by Australian officials asking to get advance notice if and when the US plans to request his extradition point to the direction the US is up to something. And don’t forget the Grand Jury, Assange being labeled ‘enemy of the state’ and a bunch of other hints
Assange appears to have helped everyone take a good look at the Devil and will be lucky to survive.
I’m not sure how much longer I can wait for the US Empire to disppear …. They seem to be doing a good job of self-destructing. I cheer it on where-ever possible. Elect Romney!!!
Then we have the question of what it is replaced with.
Which of the South American country has no national army, and has no budget for national defence.
I remember a You tube clip showing a civilised society with a promising educatuon system?
Talking of democracy, I see that none of Norfolk’s candidates for the forthcoming joke police commissioner post has yet produced a statement on this site….
…EXCEPT the Independent. Looks as if he could handle the job, btw.
Otherwise this looks like a promising destination for clapped-out political hacks and wannabe MP’s – you are expected, by the look of it, to vote for the party, not the person. I hope some of the public see through this disgraceful parody of democracy.
http://www.policeelections.com/candidates/norfolk/
“Which of the South American country has no national army, and has no budget for national defence”
Costa Rica.
I’m just a simple “peasant” from the United States and have no inside information, but from what I’ve heard a couple of times on Fox News, the desire isn’t merely to extradite Assange but to set up a kangaroo court and execute him. These same elements who tried to assassinate Chavez would also like to see Assange dead. I would be surprised about an attempt to overthrow Cameron, however. Well, not surprised to see CIA allies try it, but surprised to see the UK Government tolerate their political process interfered with by the USA. The UK is our main ally, not some poor Third World or Latin American country.
surprised to see the UK Government tolerate their political process interfered with by the USA. The UK is our main ally…
Would we be your “main ally” if we were less compliant? Are you our main ally?
For details of what the CIA got up to in Latin America (from 1957 to 1969), read Inside the Company: CIA Diary by Philip Agee.
An interview with Agee from 2005:
http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/1015
By ‘peasant’ of course you mean a ‘serf’ Xander, screwed into American Nazism yet acutely aware of the dilemma and waiting for the ‘miracle’ that will evolve American backroom strangulation of society into a true democracy demanded (soon) by the American peoples.