I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.
The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:
Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC
John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.
It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.
The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.
Interesting to see how BBC propaganda works:
http://www.newssniffer.co.uk/articles/586919/diff/6/7
from: “Pat Finucane murder: ‘No overarching state conspiracy’ says PM”
to: “Pat Finucane murder: ‘Shocking state collusion’, says PM”
What a truly disgusting outfit it is!
And of course they’re doing similar with every other story they touch. Are they just run directly by MI5 these days. There used to be at least a middle-man kinda thing, but these days it seems MI5 governs their every output.
John
From your link
‘“The US is said to have stockpiled weapons retrieved in Libya for future supply” to the insurgents.’
This of course is what is/was going on in Benghazi. (Along with a ‘black site’, where prisoners were being detained, according to Paula Broadwell, Petraeus’s lover.) And this is why the “embassy” (a CIA operation) in Benghazi was stormed, leading to the death of Christopher Stevens + three other Americans. The fact that the Obama admin + Susan Rice were foosthering around (my mother’s phrase) talking about protests against an anti-Islam film simply shows how concerned they were that this information wouldn’t go public.
Obama has claimed to have shut down all “black sites” but apparently he hasn’t. [Surprise!]
‘Shocking state collusion’
We still don’t know the full truth about the Dublin and Monaghan bombings in 1974, which killed 33 civilians and injured almost 300.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_and_Monaghan_bombings
We had some hopes that our weakling Taoiseach Enda Kenny would collar Cameron about that during the Queen’s visit to Ireland, but no such luck. As far as I know, things remain as they were – the British Gov’t refuses to release their files.
From the link above
In Northern Ireland, Sammy Smyth, then press officer of both the Ulster Defence Association (UDA) and the Ulster Workers’ Council (UWC) Strike Committee, said:
“I am very happy about the bombings in Dublin. There is a war with the Free State and now we are laughing at them.”
Further down
A subsequent report by Henry Barron into the Miami Showband massacre, the killing of Seamus Ludlow, and the bombing of Keys Tavern found evidence of extensive collusion with the same mainly UVF personnel, amounting to “international terrorism” on the part of British forces.[36]
And let’s not forget the part played by the Sindo and its propagandists during the troubles. Although published in Dublin, they were much worse than anything broadcast in Britain.
“Pat Finucane controversy
The newspaper was sued by relatives of the murdered solicitor Pat Finucane over allegations that Finucane was a volunteer in the Provisional IRA. Finucane was a solicitor who came to prominence due to successfully challenging the British Government over several important human rights cases in the 1980s.[33] He was shot fourteen times as he sat eating a meal at his Belfast home with his three children and wife, who was wounded in the attack.[34] His killer was a member of the UDA and an informer called Ken Barrett.[35] The Stevens Report found that Pat Finucane was never a member of the Provisional IRA and that his death was the result of collusion between the UDA and members of the Royal Ulster Constabulary. The paper was sued by relatives of Finucane over comments made by their security correspondent Jim Cusack, and over an opinion piece written by the Unionist writer, Ruth Dudley Edwards who claimed that various “relatives, friends, associates and clients” of the Finucane had killed people. The paper was forced print an apology to the family of Finucane. The political magazine, the Phoenix estimated that the libel action cost the Sunday Independent €500,000 in damages and legal costs [36]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunday_Independent
Regarding the flag issue,this is being used as a “flag of convenience” the underlying reason is the census result.When First Minister Peter Robinson emphasized about a week ago that the majority of catholics in N.I. supported the union I thought that something was in the wind.A few days ago we got the figures, 48% of N.I.`s population is now protestant or from protestant background.This was never supposed to happen,the designers of the gerrymandered N.I.state thought that there would be a permanent circa 70/30 split in favour of protestants.This in my view is the real story behind the violence.
Heh. The question remains unanswered, and suffices, in itself, as an answer.
“This in my view is the real story behind the violence.”
I’m sure that’s having an effect behind the scenes, Fred.
(I must awa’ or there’ll be no Christmas in this house!)
Fred E
The only thing I would add is that middle class Catholics are getting very comfy in the new state. There’s no guarantee that they’d vote for UI. They may just be happy having their own wee entity.
The bigger danger is the loyalist working class community feeling left out and the same applies in a different way to the Catholic working class community.
As ever we come back to the fact that people’s economic circumstances are far more important than their identity, and that that sort of understanding has been absent from “left” politics for far too long. Indeed the “left’s” focus on identity politics has been to the detriment of those it claims to represent. That’s the ticking time bomb in all of this.
This photo caught my eye in the article.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2247012/Rebekah-Brooks-given-11m-pay-News-Corp-phone-hacking-scandal-official-documents-reveal.html
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/12/12/article-2247012-0CED86D300000578-486_634x528.jpg What a ghastly pair.
It’s kinda funny though. You have to laugh.
In many ways the Daily Mail has become the most radical mainstream outlet in Britain.
John Goss 12 Dec, 2012 – 2:30 pm
“I have unsubscribed.”
How did you do that?
I signed an avaaz petition early on but soon tried to distance myself from them. I can’t recall the details but I was only able to not receive further communications from them. There was no way to remove myself from their db – so I still remain amongst the huge number they claim as a supporter. Very annoying. In the end I gave up. Tossers.
The above Phil is me (normally with the frog pic). I have just installed a new ubuntu (linex) and am experiencing some frustrating niggles – one of which is not being able to see what is written in the name & email boxes here.
[Mod/Jon: fixed!]
Further to my 8.50am post, the Telegraph have obviously hit a Tory sore point.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/9740252/Key-David-Cameron-aide-Craig-Oliver-threatens-Telegraph-over-Leveson.html
I said it before but when Komodo (where is he?) and I were looking at MPs’ expenses when the scandal broke, we kept finding the name of John Lewis as a named donor in the MPs’ registers of interest. Not the department store but a private individual. Coincidentally that is the name of Ms Miller’s father who, along with her mother, is her dependent as stated.
I note it is being said that Miller should recuse herself from the discussions following Leveson and subsequent decisions.
From the Daily Telegraph online by Ruth Dudley Edwards:
“The Prime Minister was right today to apologise unconditionally for the appalling involvement of some agents of the British state in the gruesome murder of Pat Finucane. But let’s bust the myth that Finucane was a human-rights lawyer. A human-rights lawyer is someone who disinterestedly protects people from abuse by the state or by terrorists. Pat Finucane didn’t do that. He was an IRA lawyer who worked for terrorists against the interests of justice.”
What a cow!
IRA members Danny McCann, Sean Savage and Mairéad Farrell, were shot dead in Gibraltar by the SAS in 1988; they were unarmed.
The authorization for the operation would have to have come from the Foreign Secretary, Geoffrey Howe or the Prime Minister Mrs. Thatcher – or both. These things don’t happen without Ministerial clearance.
The same has to be true of Mr. Finucane’s murder.
More recently is the death of Dr David Kelly which if murder, would have to have been authorised by Tony Blair and/or Jack Straw.
Then the death in 2010, of Gareth Williams who was found dead in a zipped and locked holdall placed in an empty bath; a death no longer in the news.
You don’t have to be a conspiracy nut to know that ‘The State’ takes people out.
Dyed in the wool it seems Doug.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Dudley_Edwards
Pat Finucane’s family dismiss report into his death as a ‘sham’ (video)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9740132/Pat-Finucanes-family-dismiss-report-into-his-death-as-a-sham.html
David Cameron Zionist
In his speech yesterday to the Conservative Friends of Israel the little turd said:
“It’s only when you visit the Lebanese border as I have done, when you look through binoculars and see the Hezbollah flags just hundreds of yards away that you can really understand the fear that so many Israelis live with day-in, day-out.”
Can he not understand that in the West Bank and Gaza Palestinians see Israeli flags every day on land that once belonged to them and that they live in fear of the daily Israeli attacks on their land, homes and lives?
It appears that Palestinians don’t exist.
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/2242/exclusive_david_cameron_s_full_speech_to_conservative_friends_of_israel_lunch
Interesting that a hole in the ground shown earlier by Sky News as background to a story about “Assad using Scud missiles” has just been shown on Channel 4 as Alex Thomson talked about a car bomb at the Interior Ministry!
I’ve just unsubbed from Avaaz, at their website. When I hit Submit on my message to them, I came to a page with said this:
“If you are suggesting a new campaign, we have just developed a new petitioning tool that let’s any of our members create a petition, share their campaign, and win campaigns across the world.”
which seems to confirm what I said at 11 Dec, 2012 – 5:47 pm, above. Members used not to be able to create petitions by themselves.
Phil,
This is the page I used to ask them to remove me from their database:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/contact/
(I had alread sent two blank emails to [email protected] but received no confirmation.)
Avaaz does a lot of positive things. I’m not going to refuse to take part in all the things they do that i agree with just because they allow some petitions i disagree with (and don’t sign). They had a petition calling on all European governments to vote for allowing the Palestinian Authority non-member status at the UN, plus contact details for sending messages to the heads of the British, French and German governments. They have petitions against pesticides that are killing off bees and all kinds of other important things.
I’m not convinced by the belief that every mainstream organisation is some plot by the establishment. It’s not true of Amnesty or Human Rights Watch and it’s not true of Avaaz either.
Dreolin wrote “Interesting that a hole in the ground shown earlier by Sky News as background to a story about “Assad using Scud missiles” has just been shown on Channel 4 as Alex Thomson talked about a car bomb at the Interior Ministry!”
I think you should point that out on the Sky News website so they have to correct it. Some Sky News reporters are pretty good (e.g Sam Kiley on Gaza as Craig said) but in general i’d trust Channel 4 a lot more than i’d trust Sky.
I agree Duncan. There is way too much hand-sanitzer in circulation and some sources, besides RT News and Press TV, need to be given some space.
With regard to CIA drug trade and recent newsworthy events, has anyone seen this…….?
http://www.madcowprod.com/2012/12/12/exclusive-drug-traffickers-own-jenni-rivera-death-plane/
Doug Scorgie Imagine what a Palestinian reading that must feel.
The ‘speech’ follows those of Brown and Blair before Cameron’s which were very similar in content. I see Prosor came over from the US to fill his face with his cronies. The Park Plaza Westminster Bridge Hotel is fairly new and is situated between Waterloo and Westminster Bridge. The Park Plaza CEO and some of the other directors are Jewish so I guess the CFoI get a special rate!
The CEO is one Boris Ivesha.
‘Boris Ivesha President and Chief Executive Officer DOB: 08/10/1945
Boris has been President of PPHE Hotel Group since 1991. In 1972 he was appointed General Manager of the Royal Horseguards Hotel in London, a position he held until 1979, when he became Managing Director of the Carlton Hotel in Israel.
Boris established the Yamit Hotel in 1984, served as the hotel’s President and brought the Park Plaza Hotels & Resorts brand to the Group in 1994 in collaboration with the Red Sea Group. He has been one of the major drivers behind the expansion of our portfolio, and he sits on the Investment and Operational Committees.’
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/gazette/2010/12/david-cameron-tells-the-conservative-friends-of-israel-you-have-a-prime-minister-whose-belief-in-isr.html
Dreoilin, Uzbek et al : again, quite a few obfuscations, petty quibbles, sleights of hand and, of course, the obligatory insult, in your posts. Too many to de
Dreoilin, Uzbek et al : again, quite a few obfuscations, petty quibbles, sleights of hand and, of course, the obligatory insult, in your posts – instead of answering the questions, of course. Too many to deal with at this late hour, but let me respond to just a couple of the ones I can remember.
1/. Belfast is indeed part of the geographical entity called Ireland. But I’m afraid that Belfast and the six counties as a whole are more than “technically (your word) a part of the UK” – they are legally and constitutionally part of the UK. Do you agree, Dreoilin?
2/. “Neocons like yourself” – thank you for the insult, Uzbek. I wonder how you manage to identify me as a neocon from my simple question about demographics? If you really are an Uzbek and if you really live in London, I would suggest you abandon facile insults as a tool of argument and discussion, lest I should feel tempted to return the insult by saying something like “you can take the Uzbek out of Uzbekistan, but you can’t take Uzbekistan out of the Uzbek”.
3/. And now to return to the more serious Dreoilin – you are so insistent that we cannot know the demographic situation of Paris that I’ve started to wonder if you are claiming that white French people are in an even greater minority in Paris than white British people are in London. Are you claiming – or at least hinting at – that, Dreoilin?
No, let’s be serious : there is NO other European capital with the same demographics as London. You all know that as well, but for some strange reason none of you will say it. I wonder why that should be?
London is great, dear Habakuk. Why worry?
Loving the new icon, Dreolin, will search for one equally as beautiful.
Northern Ireland is certainly part of the UK and based on a poll ast year that showed 73% of people there wanting to remain part of the UK, i suspect if there was a referendum a majority would still be for staying part of the UK.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jun/17/life-and-times-survey-united-ireland
The people who issued death threats to councillors and attacked police over the Union flag not being flown every day of the year any more are still nutjobs though.
Duncan
It’s entirely up to yourself what you do about Avaaz. Obviously.
As for Sky News, I’ve left a polite comment on their site, but I doubt if it will get through moderation.
Meanwhile, a new alert from Medialens:
Won’t Get Fooled Again? Hyping Syria’s WMD ‘Threat’
http://www.medialens.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=712:wont-get-fooled-again-hyping-syrias-wmd-threat&catid=25:alerts-2012&Itemid=69
“And now to return to the more serious Dreoilin – you are so insistent that we cannot know the demographic situation of Paris that …”
I said nothing of the sort, Habbabkuk. I told you to go and find out for yourself.
Hey Tech!
That’s me in the avatar. *blush*
I thought I’d come out of the closet. 🙂
“[the six counties] are legally and constitutionally part of the UK. Do you agree, Dreoilin?”
What a silly question. Do you expect me to say No, a thousand times No? and bring out an AK-47?
I have not given up hope of a reunified Ireland. But not necessarily in my lifetime.
Goodnight all