There had never been an Ukrainian nation state until the last twenty five years. The boundaries of the old Soviet Socialist Republics were never intended to define nation states, and indeed were in part designed to guard against forming potentially dangerous cohesive units. The Ukrainians are a nation and f they wish are certainly entitled to a state, but that its borders must be those defined, and changed several times, by the Soviet Union for the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic is not axiomatic.
It is not true that there is a general desire for secession for Ukraine on the linguistic and broadly West East split. It is true that key political attitudes do correlate closely to the linguistic split, with Russian speakers identifying with the ousted government, and favouring closer ties with Russian over closer ties with the West, while Ukrainian speakers overwhelmingly favour EU integration. But that does not translate into a general desire by the Russian speakers to secede from a Ukraine that goes the other way. The key to this is that two thirds of Russian speaking Ukrainian nationals view themselves as ethnically Ukrainian, not Russian. Only a third of Russian speakers, a sixth of the general population, regard themselves as ethnically Russian. It does appear to be true that among those who view themselves as ethnically Russian, there is a significant desire for union with Russia, and that there is probably a majority in some Eastern provinces for that idea, probably including Crimea. But the area involved is far smaller than the linguistically Russian area.
Ethnicity is of course a less tangible concept than linguistic identity, and has little claim to objective reality, particularly in an area with such turbulent history of population movement. But it is futile to pretend it has no part in the idea of a nation state, and is best regarded as a cultural concept of self-identification.
The historical legacy is extremely complex. Kievan Rus was essential to the construction of Russian identity, but for Russia to claim Kiev on that basis would be like France claiming Scandinavia because that is where the Normans came from. Kievan Rus was destroyed and or displaced by what historical shorthand calls the Mongal hordes, almost a millennium ago. Ukrainian history is fascinating, the major part of it having been at various times under Horde, Lithuanian, Polish, Krim Tartar, Galician, Cossack Federation, Russian and Soviet rule.
Still just within living memory, one in seven Ukrainians, including almost the entire intellectual and cultural elite, was murdered by Stalin. An appalling genocide. Like Katyn a hundred times over. That is the poisonous root of the extreme right nationalism that has rightly been identified as a dangerous element in the current revolution. Pro-western writers have largely overlooked the fascists and left wing critics have largely overlooked Stalin. His brutal massacre and ethnic cleansing of the Krim Tartar is also relevant – many were forcibly deported to Uzbekistan, and I have heard the stories direct.
Having served in the British Embassy in Poland shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, I regard as blinkered those who deny that membership of the European Union would be a massive advantage to Ukraine. In 1994 there was very little difference in the standard of living in both countries – I saw it myself. The difference is now enormous, and that really means in the standard of living of ordinary working people. Poland’s relationship with, and eventual membership of, the European Union has undoubtedly been a key factor. Those who wish Ukraine instead to be linked to the raw commodity export economy of Putin’s Russia are no true friends of the working people. Ukraine’s accidental boundaries include, of course, the great formerly Polish city of Lvov.
Ukraine is an accidental state and its future will be much brighter if it is a willing union. It needs not just Presidential and Parliamentary elections, but also a federal constitution and a referendum on whether any of its provinces would prefer to join Russia. That can give an agreed way forward to which Russia might also subscribe, and defuse the current crisis. It would suit the long term interest of both the Ukraine and the West. I fear however that the politicians will be too macho to see it.
Relevantly, today’s news from Afghanistan foreshadows a quick, complete withdrawal by the US, (Karzai can’t wait to make lucrative deals with the various warlords) who will then be looking for bases in the region. Cue a lot of smooching with Uzbekistan and the other FSU entities. Ukraine would be a nice demonstration to those, of benevolent intentions.
‘But Ukraine and the countries surrounding it have almost no moveable energy sources’
Fact. Indeed Russia has been able to blackmail it by interrupting oil and gas supplies by pipeline from the FSU producers. On the other hand, this may be quite relevant to the discussion-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa%E2%80%93Brody_pipeline
Ukraine has as much de facto control over Russian energy reaching the West as Russia does…much better that it understands the West’s requirements, no? One hostile hand on the tap is quite enough.
Anyone who looks more deeply at the relations between the Ukraine and its neighbors have to conclude that it is flying apart.
Even with Belarus, the Ukrainians are learning of their common roots, and their complementary goals.
Belarusians have come in numbers across the borders to help the protest against the Yanukovych government, but in the process, they have shown the domestic protesters that they come from a richer, though smaller country which is far more equitable than the Ukraine despite its autocratic government which is now in the process of becoming more normal.
I see similar mixes occurring all along Ukraine’s borders.
And thanks for the rotten tomatoes – I can always use some.
“In this wide-ranging interview, author and geopolitical analyst William Engdahl of WilliamEngdahl.com breaks down the history and context of the geopolitical machinations in Ukraine. We talk about the US/NATO encirclement of Russia and the evidence of western intervention in the ongoing Ukrainian crisis. We also discuss the breakdown of the Saudi-US relationship and the destabilization of the Middle East, as well as China’s increasing geopolitical influence around the globe.”
http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-830-william-engdahl-exposes-the-western-agenda-in-ukraine/
Countering all the anti Putin and anti Russian propaganda on attitudes to and treatment of the LGBT community prior to Sochi, we learn that American right wing evangelicals are behind the Ugandan president’s recent pronouncement.
U.S. Christian Right Behind Anti-Gay Law Passed in Uganda
by The Real News Network (TRNN) / February 26th, 2014
Rev. Kapya Kaoma: New Ugandan law that makes homosexual acts punishable by life imprisonment was modeled after the talking points of right-wing U.S. evangelicals.
http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/02/u-s-christian-right-behind-anti-gay-law-passed-in-uganda/
Kievan Rus was essential to the construction of Russian identity, but for Russia to claim Kiev on that basis would be like France claiming Scandinavia because that is where the Normans came from.
More bollocks there. Ukraine entered into a treaty of protection with Russia in 1654 following 13 years of war with Poland, and remained, thereafter, within the Russian orbit. Following the Russian and Revolution, Ukraine became one of the founding republics of the Soviet Union.
So if for some reason you want an analogy of the relationship between Russia and Kiev, that between Britain and Ireland would have at least some relevance. There was even a “genocide” by starvation, when English settlers exported grain, dairy products and pork to England while the Irish starved as their potato crops withered from the blight.
And Ireland has always been considered within the British orbit, and the subject of contingency plans for occupation, as necessary, in the face of a threat to British security.
And the implication that Ukraine was some kind of Russian colony is belied by the role of Ukrainians in Russian politics, military, arts and literature, for example: Prokofiev and Tchaikovsky, Nikolai Gogol and Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Leonid Brezhnev, and Nikita Kruschchev, Leon Trotsky (founder of the Red Army) and Volodymyr Kuts (Olympic Gold medalist in the five and ten thousand metres [Note that the commentator refers to Kuts, the guy in the Red shirt, as “the Russian”).
So no, Ukrainians to Russians are not the same as Norwegians to the French.
Greenwald; “Among the core self-identified purposes of JTRIG are two tactics: (1) to inject all sorts of false material onto the internet in order to destroy the reputation of its targets; and (2) to use social sciences and other techniques to manipulate online discourse and activism to generate outcomes it considers desirable. To see how extremist these programs are, just consider the tactics they boast of using to achieve those ends: “false flag operations” (posting material to the internet and falsely attributing it to someone else), fake victim blog posts (pretending to be a victim of the individual whose reputation they want to destroy), and posting “negative information” on various forums. Here is one illustrative list of tactics from the latest GCHQ document we’re publishing today:”
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/
@Craig. I’ve long admired your stand against US/UK intervention in the case of Uzbekistan and Iraq. So why have you, all of a sudden, come out in favour US/EU (and UK) meddling into the internal affairs of another country. Your bias in favour of further EU enlargement seems to reflect the real unstated goal of much recent UK-funded diplomacy and skullduggery in weak states, namely to pursue the interests of transnational corporations over those of workers’ rights and social stability anywhere. EU expansion and its much-championed “freedom of movement” is all about weakening the power of nation states and any other nominally democratic institutions that may challenge the hegemony of multinationals.
Ukraine has only enjoyed its current rather artificial borders since 1954. Much of the true Ukrainian-speaking region was for many centuries in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and later in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Other parts fell under the rule of the Crimean Khanate and Ottoman Empire, before being conquered by Russia around 300 years ago. As part of the Soviet Union, both Russians and Ukrainians were resettled as boundaries shifted, so Russian and Ukrainian history have long been very intertwined.
You correctly note how Ukraine has fallen behind Poland, but fail to mention its GDP per capita in 2012 ( $7,600) was under half that of Russia’s ( $17,700) and also lower than Turkey ($15,000) and Iran (13,100). Joining the EU would almost certainly lead to a higher cost of living, an influx of foreign service providers, financial straitjackets and an exodus of its best and brightest young people to the wealthier countries of the EU, already inundated by an unprecedented wave of mass immigration. This would heighten labour market competition, push down wages and create greater job insecurity. Ukrainians would be competing with Greeks, Portuguese and Poles for jobs in Germany, Sweden or England. If the experience of the last 15 years of EU expansion and globalisation is anything to go by, we will see an ever widening gulf between wealthy entrepreneurial and professional classes and the working / welfare-dependent classes. The former will have villas by the Black Sea with cheap servants, the latter will be forced to migrate to serve large unaccountable multinationals.
GCHQ are definitely active on this site. Surely everyone cannot be unemployed?Meaning some of us must be employed.And MI5 and 6 for that matter have no love for Craig.
It’s not enough to own and make the news.They have to destroy and discredit the activists,blogs and forums where those seeking truth and an alternative to “their” version of events communicate.I hope they choke on their own body odour.
http://21stcenturywire.com/2014/02/25/snowden-training-guide-for-gchq-nsa-agents-infiltrating-and-disrupting-alternative-media-online/
@Neil Gardner
Your bias in favour of further EU enlargement seems to reflect the real unstated goal of much recent UK-funded diplomacy and skullduggery in weak states, namely to pursue the interests of transnational corporations over those of workers’ rights and social stability anywhere
You got that right.
CM is a globalist and an advocate of the New World Order, if not in name certainly in reality, which means as you note, destruction of the nation states of Europe as racial, cultural and religious communities to facilitate the free movement of labor, capital and goods for the maximization of corporate profits. It’s genocide, as that term was originally defined, in the name of anti-racism.
Got Gas?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/26/why-putin-hates-fracking.html
“While you’re at it, consider the many European countries that depend on Russia for their natural gas or might compete with it as suppliers. Think of Bulgaria, Romania, Poland; and think, especially, of Ukraine…..
..snip….
Last November, Yanukovych’s government signed a $10 billion deal for shale gas exploration and exploitation with the American-based multinational Chevron, following on another massive deal with Royal Dutch Shell. Together, Yanukovych claimed, those agreements would enable Ukraine “to have full sufficiency in gas by 2020 and, under an optimistic scenario, even enable us to export energy.”
You can imagine how happy Putin was about that.
Just a week later, Yanukovych was supposed to sign a deal with the European Union that would take his country further into the Western orbit when, suddenly, under ferocious pressure from Putin and with the promise of $15 billion in loans and cheap gas, Yanukovych walked away from the European deal. In a response few people expected, huge protests by pro-European crowds filled Kiev’s Independence Square day after day, month after month, until, last week, blood flowed in the streets, the uprising spread, and the government crumbled.”
Neil,
I am genuinely fond of the EU. I think it is the best place in the world to live, in very many ways. Indeed, that is why I am here. Everything you say would happen to the Ukraine in the EU also happened to Poland, yet nonetheless the result was a massive increase in standard of living for ordinary, working class Poles. That the EU is a terrible place where the workers starve, and ordinary people are better off in Russia, is wildly untrue. Russian GDP per capita is about $14,000 but because it is so heavily based on raw commodity export and so little on manufacturing and services, unemployment is much worse than it is in Poland. It is peculiar the left are so fond of Russia when in truth the wealth gap there is even worse than here, appalling though it is here.
“US Warns Russia Over “Provocative” Actions In Ukraine”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-26/us-warns-russia-over-provocative-actions-ukraine
That the EU is a terrible place where the workers starve, and ordinary people are better off in Russia, is wildly untrue.
Except for:
“nearly half of those [in Spain] under 30 – almost 2 million people – cannot find a job. Suicide rates are up and the young fear they have no future in their own country.”
Ditto, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and next up, Ukraine.
But the Ukrainians will have real democracy, i.e., the kind bought by Western corporations, not the kind owned by a handful of local oligarchs. That’s the way forward. Democrats for corporate control, and reduction of the masses to the condition of domestic beasts to be bred, brainwashed, and turned against one another through mass migration and multi-culturalism under the tyranny of legally sanctioned politically correctness.
“Anonymous Ukraine”
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_02_23/Anonymous-Ukraine-releases-Klitschko-e-mails-showing-treason-3581/
Wait until the full effects of this t1e up are felt. The screws will really tighten then.
Proposed agreement between the European Union and the United States of America
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP; also known as the Transatlantic Free Trade Area, abbreviated as TAFTA) is a proposed free-trade agreement between the European Union and the United States.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_and_Investment_Partnership
I read today that a Dupont supercorn GMO has been foisted on us due to abstentions in the voting process. Monsanto, Cargill et al are waiting in the wings.
EU allows DuPont Pioneer’s GM supercorn
http://members5.boardhost.com/medialens/msg/1393418787.html
Wait until the full effects of this tie up are felt.
Yeah. All the talk about democracy is flim-flam. Any “democratic” government that fails to put out a sign: “available for rape and pillage,” is liable to be ousted and charged with crimes against humanity, as in Egypt and Ukraine.
The project for a New World Order will place every country under the control of global institutions subject to back-room corporate control, thereby negating sovereign state democracy. Then we’ll really know how wonderful it is to live in the EU.
Even if all that you say about Ukraine being an accidental state were true (and it did have a very short lived independence in the 1920’s) the case for not dividing the Ukraine is still very strong.Splitting a state is not something that should be lightly done, as it would be extraordinarily difficult to re-join what might be broken. Witness how long it took to rejoin Germany. Given the turmoil and economic uncertainty, it is likely that some would decide to split based on ephemeral concerns, so it is fair to require the process be long, and require something more than a majority decision.
Another reason that a split is to be avoided is that it raises the specter of awarding territorial gains based on ethnic cleansing, and we all know how well that worked in Bosnia.
We should work hard first for peace, and than for a peaceful process. Those forced to co habitat have a tendency to work out their problems, which has been the case to some extent in South Africa and North Ireland.
@craig
Thanks for confirming my suspicions. Have you visited Italy, Spain, Portugal or Greece recently? Ever heard of Beppe Grillos’ Movimento Cinque Stelle? Lies, damned lies and official inflation rates? The EU has nothing to do with European cooperation, but rather serves to impose corporate globalisation on everyone. Social welfare serves merely to subsidise low wages and extortionate rents and to soften the blow of massive job losses and migratory pressures, in a very fuild labour market.
You criticize economies based on “raw commodity export”, yet the economic growth that globalist economists seem so keen to promote depends on these resources, it’s just they would rather they be controlled by global multinationals. Compare this with the UK that suuceeds mainlyin producing hot air that noobody really needs, while its remaining manufacturing base mainly just assembles imported components. Actually the UK’s two biggest physical exports are weapons and pharmaceuticals (both of dubious necessity). How would the UK cope in the event of a global banking crisis ? Now untapped North Sea oil reserves are buried deep beneath the North Atlantic sea bed, the EU can let Scotland rebrand itself as nominally independent with London’s blessing? With rising energy prices and global financial meltdown looming, I’d rather live in a resource-rich country than a bankrupt one.
Neil…
From Crag’s post …we learn how deep his Insights Are…. But the Libya Catastrophe… Sickened me…. and then Syria… mutilations of all and anyone.. young girls..in front of crowds in the street…Ect Ect Ect.. I don’t know what Craig Knows…but i Know Who i believe these days… And it Aint Bush – sorry Obomironman…or agent Cnt Fuck em..
This is more true than Any of the lying war mongering criminals of the west… –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKMyY2V0J0Y
Enrich…
i cant read your post…cos i cant take my eye off the avatar….
“So why have you {ie, Craig }, all of a sudden, come out in favour US/EU (and UK) meddling into the internal affairs of another country.
_____________________
As I predicted, Craig: your post didn’t press the anti-West button and now the displeasure boil, gently swelling over the last 24 hrs, has finally burst. The pus is there for all to see.
‘I am genuinely fond of the EU. I think it is the best place in the world to live, in very many ways.’
Most of the ‘best places’ to live in the EU (Denmark,Netherlands, Sweden), also happen to be monarchies. Wtf does that prove ?
Classic Beeb brainwashing by elision here-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26364891
Note the repeated references (on whose testimony ?) to ‘gunmen’ seizing government buildings.
Previously, Government buildings in Kiev were always reported as being seized by ‘demonstrators’. Presumably also, like 60s hippies, they were laden with flowers, and not carrying weapons.
Four legs good, two legs bad.
Unemployment shot up in Poland in 1990 and has remained very high ever since.
There is much less social security now. That’s why so many Polish people take low-paid jobs abroad, such as in the UK.
These facts can’t be got round by telling ‘lefties’ to get back to Russia or saying how wonderful it is to have the ‘freedom’ to leave a country (for the west). I am not defending the pro-Soviet regime.
Most Polish people in Britain are economic migrants. They don’t come here because they think the social culture here is more attractive than the one in Poland. ‘Freedom’ is not an issue.
(In case you are thinking of referring to material on ‘hidden’ and ‘disguised’ unemployment in the 1980s and before, let me add that the definitions used by western sovietologists who described such phenomena mostly concerned people whose labour-power was not in great demand; in the main, the definitions were not to do with people who weren’t in jobs and didn’t receive wages. A realistic figure for unemployment in Poland in the 1970s and 1980s should be higher than the official figure of 1%, but it should not be higher than about 2%.)
Unemployment went up to 6% in 1990, 12% in 1991, and figures for the following years are as follows:
1990 6%
1991 12%
1992 14%
1993 16%
1994-98 11-13%
1999 14%
2000-05 16-20%
2006 14%
2007-09 7-10%
2010-14 10%
Roughly speaking, the unemployment rate has been about 6 times higher than it was under the old regime, varying from about 4 times higher to about 10 times higher.
“Corporate media attack Venezuela”
http://educationforum.ipbhost.com/index.php?s=1b7963ce20bf2bd6e87d4de114b7a888&showtopic=21050&hl=
Sorry, what was the answer to the question
“why have you {ie, Craig }, all of a sudden, come out in favour US/EU (and UK) meddling into the internal affairs of another country?”
There’s a lot of knowledge and sense in this comment above, by “НУ ДА”.
Without resulting to ‘infectious’ nouns or misplaced chutzpah towards insight and knowledge here, one cannot I believe lose sight of the insidious role key players in Washington and certain EU countries are playing in relation to the situation in Ukraine. Their agenda was of course to force an immediate end of the elected Yanukovich government in Kiev and lock Ukraine into the EU and, ultimately, NATO. Washington’s agenda has little to do with “democracy and freedom,” and a lot to do with destabilizing Putin’s Russia.
Examining William Hague’s ‘cup of tea’ we find contradicting friendliness and hostility towards Putin, the other player being former assistant to Vice President Dick Cheney,Victoria Nuland, herself married to neo-conservative guru, Robert Kagan. While ‘Billy’ stresses the importance of dialogue with Putin, secretary Nuland attacks Russia on several fronts:
Victoria Nuland, Implications of the Crisis in Ukraine: Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, DC, January 15, 2014
I wonder when ‘Bandar Bush’ will direct his terrorist snipers and join with those ‘mercenaries’ provoking terror and mayhem in Crimea.
Thanks for the links on Polish unemployment, N_. While I don’t/can’t dispute its or your generaL conclusions, I found this to be suspect-
‘Difficulties with finding a job are also experienced by women and people over 50 years. People of this last group spent at least half of their life under the communist system so they are not well adjusted to the capitalist system. They are unwilling or they do not have a chance to re-educate and move from their home to the areas where more jobs are available.’
This is as much a problem in the UK, is my impression, and the UK didn’t experience the communist system. A major contributory factor is the unwillingness of HR departments even to look at the CV’s of people older than 50. I have personal experience of this despite then having (then) recently re-educated myself to a high standard in an industry-related field, and having been entirely willing to move – as, after two years of unemployment, I eventually did.