I listened live to Putin’s speech yesterday with great interest. Here is my own analysis, for what it is worth.
Putin was strongest in his accusations of western hypocrisy. His ironic welcoming of the West having suddenly discovered the concept of international law was very well done. His analysis of the might is right approach the West had previously adopted, and their contempt of the UN over Iraq and Afghanistan, was spot on. Putin also was absolutely right in describing the Kosovo situation as “highly analogous” to the situation in Crimea. That is indeed true, and attempts by the West – including the Guardian – to argue the cases are different are pathetic exercises in special pleading.
The problem is that Putin blithely ignored the enormous logical inconsistency in his argument. He stated that the Crimean and Kosovo cases were highly analogous, but then used that to justify Russia’s action in Crimea, despite the fact that Russia has always maintained the NATO Kosovo intervention was illegal(and still refuses to recognize Kosovo). In fact of course Russia was right over Kosovo, and thus is wrong over Crimea.
I was very interested that Putin made distinct reference to the appalling crimes against the Tartars in the 1930’s, but also to the terrible suffering of Ukrainians in that period. His references were not detailed but their meaning was clear. I was surprised because under Putin’s rule there has been a great deal of rehabilitation of Stalin. Archives that were opened under glasnost have frozen over again, and history in Russian schools now portrays Stalin’s foreign policy achievement much more than his crimes (and it is now again possible to complete your Russian school education with no knowledge the Stalin-Hitler pact ever happened). So this was both surprising and positive. Designed to be positive was his assurance that Crimea will be trilingual. We will see what happens; Putin’s Russia is in fact not tolerant of its ethnic populations in majority Russian areas, and in fact contains a great many more far right thugs than Ukraine – probably about the same percentage of the population.
The 97% referendum figure is simply unbelievable to any reasonable person and is straight out of the Soviet playbook – it was strange to see Putin going in and out of modern media friendly mode and his audience, with their Soviet en brosse haircuts and synchronized clapping – obviously liked the Soviet bits best.
The attempt to downplay Russia’s diplomatic isolation was also a bit strange. He thanked China, though China had very pointedly failed to support Russian in the Security Council. When you are forced to thank people for abstaining, you are not in a strong position diplomatically. He also thanked India, which is peculiar, because the Indian PM yesterday put out a press release saying Putin had called him, but the had urged Putin to engage diplomatically with the interim government in Kiev, which certainly would not be welcome to Putin. I concluded that Putin was merely trying to tell his domestic audience Russia has support, even when it does not.
But what I find really strange is that the parts of the speech I found most interesting have not drawn any media comment I can see. Putin plainly said that in his discussions with Kuchma on the boundaries of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they hadn’t wanted to open any dispute with what they expected to be a friendly neighbor, and that therefore the boundaries of Ukraine had never been finally demarcated. He said twice the boundaries had not been demarcated. That seemed to indicate a very general threat to Eastern Ukraine. He also spoke of the common heritage of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in a way that indicated that he did not accept that Ukraine might choose a political future away from Russia.
Secondly, he said that on the day the Soviet Union broke up, Russians in many places had “woken up to find themselves in a foreign country.” Again from the context in which he said it, this referred not just to Crimea, and not just even to the rest of Ukraine, but to Russian nationals all over the Former Soviet Union. I would be worrying a lot about this part of the speech if I was Kazakh, to give just one example. Putin seemed to be outlining a clear agenda to bring Russian speaking areas of CIS countries back in to Mother Russia – indeed, I see no other possible interpretation of his actions in Georgia and Ukraine.
I think that we should start listening much more carefully to what he says. I also think that the weakness of the EU’s response to events gives Putin a very dangerous encouragement to pursue further aggrandizement. I posted a few days ago:
The EU I expect to do nothing. Sanctions will target a few individuals who are not too close to Putin and don’t keep too many of their interests in the West. I don’t think Alisher Usmanov and Roman Abramovic need lose too much sleep, that Harrods need worry or that we will see any flats seized at One Hyde Park. (It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.) Neither do I expect to see the United States do anything effective; its levers are limited.
The truth is of course that the global political elite are in the pockets of the global financial elite, and while ordinary Russians are still desperately poor, the money the oligarchs rip out of Russia’s backward commodity exporting economy is parceled around the world financial system in ways that make it impossible for the western political classes to do anything. Whose funds would the hedge fund managers look after? Whose yacht could Mandelson and Osborne holiday on?
Personally I should like to see a complete financial freeze on the entire Russian oligarchy. The knock on effects would only hurt a few bankers, and city types and those who depend on them (cocaine dealers, lap dancers, Porsche dealers, illegal domestic servants). Sadly we shan’t see anything happen. They won’t let Eton go bust.
John Goss
I now realise why do you support Orlov’s points of view.
http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/
“The EU, the USA and their blasted mother don’t recognize the referendum, yet in Kiev most people accept it and care little or nothing about it.
It’s incredible that [the referendum] is more accepted here than in the rest of the world. Why don’t they leave these people alone, may I ask?
Military neighbors, friends, colleagues, consider [the referendum] legit and understand it and accept it. The world that gives opinions about these people, doesn’t. Strange.]”
Can I check with Mr Orlov how many people in Kiev he had questioned on so called “referendum” matter?
Uzbek in the UK
20 Mar, 2014 – 1:23 pm
“I believe that both Arabs and Jews must be given the same right in the state of Israel.”
But as the Israeli State does not practice this, you presumably must agree with the highlighting of & criticism of exactly this when it is posted here ?
BTW how goes the Jewish myth of Jews being the superior “Chosen People” factor into the Israeli State’s history of military aggression against its neighbours ? It this not a sort of chauvinism that you say that is inherent with Russians & explains its history ?
Mark Golding
I personally think that it would be good if all US officials are banned from travelling to Russia, as well as all US companies, all US charities, all US journalists, all US educational programmes, all US citizens (never mind that around 1 million of them of Russian/soviet origin). And the same goes with respect to EU.
Although I will miss Bolshoi and having coffee at Bulgakov’s favourite table, I am confident that Russia will survive with no western contacts. Just like China did under Mao.
Lets roll on Cold War paranoia. God I missed those mystery times.
Macky
I and my ancestors lived for over a century under Russian and not Jewish oppression and rule.
I am confident I have better knowledge and can recognise more fully danger of Russian Chauvinism.
Do you mind if I continue on commenting on what I am confident I know better and stop involving me into anti-Israeli conspiracy discussion?
Ask Mr Murray to start another anti-Israeli thread and spit your bile there, please.
Dmitry Orlov on Putin.
http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/the-madness-of-president-putin.html#more
Uzbek in the UK,
Yes, I understand that nobody likes to be caught out on their inconsistencies, and irrational prejudices; I’m certain that the more discerning people who have followed your comments here, have already reached an accurate conclusion as to the type of person you are.
Macky
I prefer to comment on what I know better. Do you mind? I am asking again.
I have several times stated my reaction to Israeli and Zionists wrong doings to Arabs (on other threads on this very blog), but I trust other people (who either originally from there or have been researching these problems objectively and not from one source) know better. I prefer to read their comments, read more from other sources where I think they might be inaccurate or prejudiced and then make up my mind. Comparing to my knowledge of Russia and its former colonies my knowledge of Middle East is unfortunately VERY limited. So for now I would prefer not to get involved in hot discussion on the matter of which I know very little and which is equally important to some people as matters of Russian Chauvinism and Hegemony to me.
Sofia Kibo Noh
Interesting but one sided. Please read below. And pay attention to the bold and then please read my comments further below.
“But in effect Gorbachev capitulated; the USSR was dismembered and, over the course of the 1990s, Russia itself came close to being destroyed and dismembered. Although in the West, where he is still a popular figure, Gorbachev is credited with orchestrating a peaceful dissolution of the USSR, the chaotic aftermath of the collapse of the USSR was an extremely traumatic event, with massive loss of life. When Putin calls the collapse of the USSR “the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” he echoes the feelings of many Russians — who, by the way, like to call Gorbachev “Mishka mécheny” (“Mickey the marked”— marked by the devil, that is.)”
Really? Saying this and not even a word of acknowledgement of massiveness of loss of lives during soviet rule? Hello? Comparing this too loss of lives during Stalin and also comparing dissolution of Yugoslavia to dissolution of USSR authors of this prejudiced publication should be very thankful to Mishka mecheny for his wisdom not to execute more people, like Slobodan did.
The second bold text is fascinating. I have never hear of this explanation of Gorbache’s birth mark. Something new I learn every day indeed. Just like Raspuntin was blamed to be Devils agent by monarchists to save their Niki II from responsibilities of huge wrong doings, this unique explanation of Gorbachev’s birthmark is fascinating to me. And also equally nonsensed.
Uzbek in the UK
But you gave the impression that you were an expert on “Chauvinism”, and how it explains the history of a country; are you now saying that you are an expert on something but only if it exists in a very specific narrow situation, otherwise you know nothing about it ?!!
Sofia Kibo Noh
Sorry something went wrong with bolding. My second bold was referring to “marked by devil”.
[Bolding fixed – it’s “slash b”, no spaces]
Macky
Chauvinism, although have something common (superiority over others) is actually very different indeed. To comment on Chauvinism one needs to study history of particular people/nation(s) very carefully and fully. My Claim of Russian Chauvinism is in fact product of my knowledge and first hand experience of it. I have never lived in Israel and my theoretical knowledge (as I have been saying again and again) is very limited. How would you expect me to comment anything about (as you proposed) Jewish chauvinism if I know almost nothing about it.
Do you want then to point finger at me (like I have been doing to MAD western lefties) and expose my “ignorance” on this matter?
I have actually been calling MAD western lefties to research Russian and its colonial history more carefully and more objectively before commenting on the recent development with Russian intervention to Ukraine. And here you want me to be antithesis to my own proposed thesis.
Thank you. I am not that mad.
Orlov writes that Putin is portrayed as a fiend, and the West acts baffled and scared. The feigned shock with which the West looks on at the developments in Crimea could be seen as a tactic designed to isolate and intimidate Vladimir Putin. The fact that this tactic is not only not working but actually backfiring changes feigned shock into real shock: Western meds aren’t working any more—on itself or anyone else.
Let’s compare Putin’s rampage in Ukraine with the humanitarian intervention in Libia.
How many tons of high explosives detonated?
How many bodies?
How many traumatised orphans?
And the aftermath.
Rule of Law?
Functioning social, physical and political infrastructure?
As time passes we’ll be able to draw some conclusions from measurable indexes like infant mortality, life expectancy and literacy levels. No prizes for any genius who guesses it right.
The “Leaders of the Free World” may mouth fine words, but the fruits of their actions consistently seem to be more human misery than before.
Maybe the West could try leaving other nations to solve their own problems and turn their attention to solving their own?
Sofia;
“The “Leaders of the Free World” may mouth fine words, but the fruits of their actions consistently seem to be more human misery than before”
Is there no one who will defend Obama.?.. 🙂 Biden? 🙁
Uzbek in the UK
I’m not asking you to furnish a academic multi-volumed dissertation on “Chauvinism & The Israeli Psyche” ! Instead, given the commonly accepted general dictionary definition of the word, which I trust you are familiar with, (otherwise you could not label the Russians as “chauvinists”), and because you made a comment that “Arabs and Jews must be given the same right in the state of Israel”, I am merely asking you if the Jewish belief of “Chooseness”, (just like the American notion of “Manifest Destiny”), can be considered as “chauvinistic” in your view ?
Ben.
I forgot Samantha Power. Here she is at the UN today.
“The world is speaking out against the use of military threats and the use of force. Ukrainians must be allowed to determine their own destiny.”
She managed to keep a straight face through it all. That’s what I call a class act!
http://www.businessinsider.com/samantha-power-russia-ukraine-un-security-council-2014-3#ixzz2wYJUi35S
Goodnight all.
Sofia;
Obama has been disappointing because his strategy is 150 years old. Perhaps gems can be taken from the Past, but they we can also learn from cave painting; that doesn’t mean we swallow the flounder whole. Rather we should fillet and make a stock from the rest for a soup.
Obama’s problem is that he studied Lincoln in a myopic trance which ‘blinded’ him from the necessity of context. This is not the 19th century.
He’s made deals with too many to achieve his ‘good’ by purloining the quest for ‘perfect’, with rhetoric to attain power, then pursuing his own agenda of “Keeping your enemy Closer than your Friends’ again, culturally and morally obsequious behavior and thusly, more of the same.
I think Capitalism is like Lincoln; good for it’s time, but now Obama and his Capitalistic supporters have had their time. Time to try something different.
Mark; When you get a chance. I was inspired to link to the RnR Hall of Fame performance wrt to Cream induction, and I thought of yerself. Ginger is muted (btw saw doc on him, (whatta guy!. His Iconoclasm is at least the equal of Hunter S. Thompson in another media)
i thought Clapton disinterested, Jack was the best ever on this rendition. If you are within earshot; Enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CcbH3xjdBw
Beware Mr. Baker is the doc if you aren’t aware Mark.
When the judy Miller paper of record pronounces, I get worried….
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/opinion/how-to-punish-putin.html?pagewanted=all
Ben.
Thanks for the Cream. Great guitars!
As for the nyt. Do they ever do any homework?
That is the same Navalny who said in 2012 on Ukrainian TV that “Russian foreign policy should be maximally directed at integration with Ukraine and Belarus… In fact, we’re one nation. We should enhance integration.”
What a flexible mind!
From, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexey_Navalny#2012_embezzlement_and_fraud_charges
They are acting like primary school kids arguing over conkers.
Ukraine Crisis: EU Sanctions For More Russians
Twelve more people are now the subject of travel bans and asset freezes, as EU leaders prepare to sign a trade deal with Kiev.
http://news.sky.com/story/1229470/ukraine-crisis-eu-sanctions-for-more-russians
“Can I check with Mr Orlov how many people in Kiev he had questioned on so called “referendum” matter?”
Well, Uzbek, you would have to check with him, not me. I probably have no more idea than you, unless you have questioned opinion there.
This is likely to raise a few blood pressures. Just how has the western-backed coup backfired?
http://rt.com/politics/putin-rating-crimea-peak-041/
One rule for one, another for another. More of US hypocrisy.
US a no-show for UN talks on covert drone wars
THE USA is refusing to participate in UN Human Rights Council talks about greater accountability for human rights violations in covert drone wars.
Foreign Policy reporter Colum Lynch, who broke the story Wednesday, says the U.S. is opting out of discussions about a draft Pakistani resolution aimed at the U.S. drone strikes. Lynch explains:
The Pakistani draft, which was obtained by Foreign Policy, urges states to “ensure transparency” in record-keeping on drone strikes and to “conduct prompt, independent and impartial investigations whenever there are indications of any violations to human rights caused by their use.” It also calls for the convening of “an interactive panel discussion” on the use of drones.
During the third round of talks on Wednesday about the resolution, the United States was notably absent. The boycott marks a shift from President Obama’s decision in 2009 to join the Human Rights Council after years of U.S. boycott at the behest of former President George W. Bush.
Yet, the move is in keeping with the Obama administration’s diligent refusal to share public information about those U.S. drone wars and those killed in the attacks. A “modest” initiative in the U.S. Senate that would have forced the U.S. government to publicly report and identify those killed by U.S. drone strikes overseas failed last November.
While the Obama administration has repeatedly claimed that civilian deaths in drone strikes are minimal, the Bureau of Investigative Journalism documents alarming rates of civilian deaths by covert U.S. attacks in Yemen, Pakistan, and Somalia. Furthermore, in a 21-page report released earlier this month, UN special rapporteur on human rights Ben Emmerson identifies drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Gaza in which civilians were killed, injured, or threatened in drone attacks by the U.S. and close ally Israel.
The U.S. still has not answered for numerous high-profile attacks, including a December 2013 U.S. drone strike on a recent wedding procession in Yemen near the city of Rad’a that left 12 people dead and at least 15 wounded.
The boycott of the talks comes as the U.S. escalates its covert drone war in Yemen, with at least seven suspected strikes in the first two weeks of March.
/..
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2014/03/20-2
PS Why has Obama surrounded himself with these warlike harpies? Rice, Power, Nuland, Jones (in Oddie’s link) or did Shillary play a large part in the placements?
I am ashamed to be of the same sex as them.
A rarity, a MSM journalist speaking sense about the Russian/Ukraine situation & exposing Neil’s warmongering nonsense;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03yvwql/This_Week_20_03_2014/
@Mary
“One rule for one, another for another. More of US hypocrisy.
US a no-show for UN talks on covert drone wars
THE USA is refusing to participate in UN Human Rights Council talks about greater accountability for human rights violations in covert drone wars.”
EXACTLY
“Representative Democracy”(elected dictatorship) IS A SYSTEM OF HYPOCRACY
The Tweedle Dum Tweedle Dee mudslinging muppet show!
Centralised Authority is an IRRESPONSIBLE political system!
It may KILL us all!!
Politions will take NO RESPONSIBILITY for THIER actions.
Look at the illegal and immoral wars , the illegal and immoral bailout and the paedophilia rings that continue today without any polition being arrested!
WE voted for them ,will be thier response. They act like dictators NOT servants!
People like Craig,who support representative democracy, will take NO RESPONSIBLITIY for the actions of leaders THEY disagree with!?
Even though they support the political system that gave us these very leaders?..time after time after time.
If you think repeating the action will produce a different result ,YOU ARE CLINICALLY INSANE!!
Craig also thinks that tweedle dee is less evil than Tweedle Dum because Tweedle Dum does bad things.
The FACT that Tweedle Dee does exactly the same bad things does not seem to matter.
It then must be that Tweedle Dum is not Western or supports his percieved version of Westerness that is the REAL problem!
The centralised authority,East or West, sees itself as infalible and the people it is supposed to represent,as expendable.
Eventually ,if not held accountable for its actions, the centralised authority will feed on the very people it claimed to protect.
The bigger they are the less democratic they become.
I admit after the end of WWII there was a huge backlash against churchill and his cronies which saw the birth of the NHS and big improvements for the common man.
I claim this happened DISPITE the centralised government ,it was a humanitarian movement not a government idea(it started in the Highlands)…the centralised
government was the cause of its failure ,and it did not stop the centralised authority from carrying out alot of nasty business across the globe at this time and it
only took the old guard a few years via the centralised authority to get back into power and to continue business as usual.
Power Mad Politions will be the death of us! A centralised social power structure just enables them.
Direct Democracy and holding politions accountable is the only way to stop the system repeating.
Political parties and mudslinging will change nothing…because political parties and mudslinging is the problem!
Political parties and mudslinging is the political system,East or West!!
..and it just creates chaos and ill will!!
Humanity needs to focus on bettering itself and others and stop listening to war mongering ,mudslinging,sabre rattling ,snake oil selling politions and thier lackies.
We are better than that
And Craig,just in case you are reading this, may I quote you ..it was the quote that started me commenting on this issue!
“CRAIG
“The problem with people like you, Cuthulan, that you quite rightly deride war criminals like Bush and Blair, but then go off looking for an opposing war criminal to
support. ”
No, Craig.
The problem with people like you, Craig, that you quite rightly deride war criminals like Putin, but then go off looking for an opposing war criminal to support.
……in this case Neo Nazi war criminals!”
Do you see what I mean now? Can YOU see your hypocracy?
OR are you going to continue claiming thier are no Neo Nazis running this armed US financed insurrection in the Ukraine?
…and continue to take NO RESPONSIBILITY for the actions of a political system YOU support!?!
and continue just finger pointing at Tweedle dee?
With representative democracy as the political system in East and West WHO DO YOU THINK WILL REPLACE HIM?
Who will replace Cameron?…some benign Buddha like leader? …or just another corrupt power mad polition?
Do you want to put some money on it?
Come on guys WAKE UP!!!!
It is just irresponsible and hypocritical at best!
Its nonsense and its bullsh1t and it threatens the WHOLE OF LIFE ON EARTH!!!
http://cuthulan.wordpress.com/2011/10/07/when-libertarians-realise-thier-socialist-roots-and-socialists-rediscover-thier-libertarian-values-we-the-people-will-change-
the-world-and-this-will-be-change-we-can-believe-in/
http://cuthulan.wordpress.com/2011/11/25/when-left-and-right-unite-the-future-will-be-bright-things-we-all-agree-on/
YOU WANT CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN
SUPPORT DIRECT (TRUE)DEMOCRACY
END THE POLITICAL ELECTED DICTATORSHIP(REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY)
EAST AND WEST ,NORTH AND SOUTH!!!
POLITIONS ARE THE PROBLEM
NOT THE SOLUTION!
Uzbek in the UK
20 Mar, 2014 – 3:10 pm
“Can I please have your opinion on whether or not you trust historical evidence to support claims of Holocaust?”
I have no problems with the Holocaust history.
@Doug, it turns out that there was no need to answer Uzbek’s question, it was obviously just a cheap & nasty smearing attempt.
Vladimir Putin mocked Western sanctions on Friday morning, as David Cameron said the EU planned to cut Russia’s strangehold on Europe’s gas supply.
Mr Putin was reported to have claimed he will open a bank account at a sanction-hit bank and joked he will steer clear of allies on a list of people facing sanctions as they are “compromising us.”
Soon afterwards, UK prime minister Mr Cameron revealed he was very happy with measures that EU leaders had drawn up overnight.
Among them was a pledge to reduce dependence on gas from Russia which currently accounts for 25% of all that used in the continent.
He said gas from US shale beds, extracted by fracking, and other so-far untapped European sources will increasingly replace Russian supplies.
/..
http://news.sky.com/story/1229470/putin-mocks-sanctions-for-russians-over-crimea
As somebody else asked, was it all about making a market for US shale gas? Trouble is there is no suitable port on the East Coast!
Former U.S. Ambassador: Behind Crimea Crisis, Russia Responding to Years of “Hostile” U.S. Policy
AMY GOODMAN: To talk more about the growing crisis in Ukraine, we’re joined by Ambassador Jack Matlock. He served as U.S. ambassador to Moscow from 1987 to 1991. He’s the author of several books, including Reagan and Gorbachev: How the Cold War Ended. He recently wrote a column for The Washington Post headlined “The U.S. Has Treated Russia Like a Loser Since the End of the Cold War.”
Ambassador Matlock, welcome to Democracy Now! Talk about the situation right now, what has just taken place, Ukraine now pulling out of Crimea.
JACK MATLOCK JR.: Well, I think that this rhetoric on both sides is being very unhelpful. The fact is, Russia now has returned Crimea to Russia. It has been, most of its recent history, in the last couple of centuries, been Russian. The majority of the people are Russian. They clearly would prefer to be in Russia. And the bottom line is, we can argue ’til doomsday over who did what and why and who was the legal and who was not—I’m sure historians generations from now will still be arguing it—but the fact is, Russia now is not going to give up Crimea. The fact also is, if you really look at it dispassionately, Ukraine is better off without Crimea, because Ukraine is divided enough as it is. Their big problem is internal, in putting together disparate people who have been put together in that country. The distraction of Crimea, where most of the people did not want to be in Ukraine and ended up in Ukraine as a result of really almost a bureaucratic whim, is—was, I think, a real liability for Ukraine…
…fundamentally, it’s going to be the Ukrainians who have to put their society back together. It is seriously broken now. And it seems to me they could take a leaf from the Finns, who have been very successful ever since World War II in putting together a country with both Finns and Swedes, by treating them equally, by being very respectful and careful about their relations with Russia, never getting into—anymore into military struggles or allowing foreign bases on their land. And they’ve been extremely successful. Why can’t the Ukrainians follow a policy of that sort? I think, for them, it would work, too. But first, they have to find a way to unite the disparate elements in Ukraine; otherwise, these pressures from Russia, on the one hand, and the West, on the other, is going to simply tear them apart.
/..
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/3/20/fmr_us_ambassador_behind_crimea_crisis