I listened live to Putin’s speech yesterday with great interest. Here is my own analysis, for what it is worth.
Putin was strongest in his accusations of western hypocrisy. His ironic welcoming of the West having suddenly discovered the concept of international law was very well done. His analysis of the might is right approach the West had previously adopted, and their contempt of the UN over Iraq and Afghanistan, was spot on. Putin also was absolutely right in describing the Kosovo situation as “highly analogous” to the situation in Crimea. That is indeed true, and attempts by the West – including the Guardian – to argue the cases are different are pathetic exercises in special pleading.
The problem is that Putin blithely ignored the enormous logical inconsistency in his argument. He stated that the Crimean and Kosovo cases were highly analogous, but then used that to justify Russia’s action in Crimea, despite the fact that Russia has always maintained the NATO Kosovo intervention was illegal(and still refuses to recognize Kosovo). In fact of course Russia was right over Kosovo, and thus is wrong over Crimea.
I was very interested that Putin made distinct reference to the appalling crimes against the Tartars in the 1930’s, but also to the terrible suffering of Ukrainians in that period. His references were not detailed but their meaning was clear. I was surprised because under Putin’s rule there has been a great deal of rehabilitation of Stalin. Archives that were opened under glasnost have frozen over again, and history in Russian schools now portrays Stalin’s foreign policy achievement much more than his crimes (and it is now again possible to complete your Russian school education with no knowledge the Stalin-Hitler pact ever happened). So this was both surprising and positive. Designed to be positive was his assurance that Crimea will be trilingual. We will see what happens; Putin’s Russia is in fact not tolerant of its ethnic populations in majority Russian areas, and in fact contains a great many more far right thugs than Ukraine – probably about the same percentage of the population.
The 97% referendum figure is simply unbelievable to any reasonable person and is straight out of the Soviet playbook – it was strange to see Putin going in and out of modern media friendly mode and his audience, with their Soviet en brosse haircuts and synchronized clapping – obviously liked the Soviet bits best.
The attempt to downplay Russia’s diplomatic isolation was also a bit strange. He thanked China, though China had very pointedly failed to support Russian in the Security Council. When you are forced to thank people for abstaining, you are not in a strong position diplomatically. He also thanked India, which is peculiar, because the Indian PM yesterday put out a press release saying Putin had called him, but the had urged Putin to engage diplomatically with the interim government in Kiev, which certainly would not be welcome to Putin. I concluded that Putin was merely trying to tell his domestic audience Russia has support, even when it does not.
But what I find really strange is that the parts of the speech I found most interesting have not drawn any media comment I can see. Putin plainly said that in his discussions with Kuchma on the boundaries of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they hadn’t wanted to open any dispute with what they expected to be a friendly neighbor, and that therefore the boundaries of Ukraine had never been finally demarcated. He said twice the boundaries had not been demarcated. That seemed to indicate a very general threat to Eastern Ukraine. He also spoke of the common heritage of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in a way that indicated that he did not accept that Ukraine might choose a political future away from Russia.
Secondly, he said that on the day the Soviet Union broke up, Russians in many places had “woken up to find themselves in a foreign country.” Again from the context in which he said it, this referred not just to Crimea, and not just even to the rest of Ukraine, but to Russian nationals all over the Former Soviet Union. I would be worrying a lot about this part of the speech if I was Kazakh, to give just one example. Putin seemed to be outlining a clear agenda to bring Russian speaking areas of CIS countries back in to Mother Russia – indeed, I see no other possible interpretation of his actions in Georgia and Ukraine.
I think that we should start listening much more carefully to what he says. I also think that the weakness of the EU’s response to events gives Putin a very dangerous encouragement to pursue further aggrandizement. I posted a few days ago:
The EU I expect to do nothing. Sanctions will target a few individuals who are not too close to Putin and don’t keep too many of their interests in the West. I don’t think Alisher Usmanov and Roman Abramovic need lose too much sleep, that Harrods need worry or that we will see any flats seized at One Hyde Park. (It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.) Neither do I expect to see the United States do anything effective; its levers are limited.
The truth is of course that the global political elite are in the pockets of the global financial elite, and while ordinary Russians are still desperately poor, the money the oligarchs rip out of Russia’s backward commodity exporting economy is parceled around the world financial system in ways that make it impossible for the western political classes to do anything. Whose funds would the hedge fund managers look after? Whose yacht could Mandelson and Osborne holiday on?
Personally I should like to see a complete financial freeze on the entire Russian oligarchy. The knock on effects would only hurt a few bankers, and city types and those who depend on them (cocaine dealers, lap dancers, Porsche dealers, illegal domestic servants). Sadly we shan’t see anything happen. They won’t let Eton go bust.
“He said gas from US shale beds, extracted by fracking, and other so-far untapped European sources will increasingly replace Russian supplies.”
It’s a bluff, Mary. The US has only 2 CNG ports operational. They are playing ketchup with plans for many more, but this is gonna take years.
Mod Ref http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/03/deconstructing-putin/comment-page-2/#comment-447843
I thought that there was a moderation policy of deleting personal, ad hominem type inflammatory comments.
[craigmurray.org.uk – done. Such comments are deleted when found.]
The Ukrainian US stooge sits between David ‘Smoothface’ Cameron and the EU’s Rumpy Pumpy.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/73722000/jpg/_73722994_u9wofd0l.jpg
EU seals closer ties with Ukraine
Acting Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk: “This treaty shows Ukraine shares European values”
The EU and Ukraine have signed an agreement forging closer economic ties, in a show of support following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26680250
Mad Lefties! the below is for your information.
“Boys from another school pulled out the severed head of a classmate while fishing in a pond. His whole family had died. Had they eaten him first? Or had he survived the deaths of his parents only to be killed by a cannibal? No one knew; but such questions were commonplace for the children of Ukraine in 1933. . . . Yet cannibalism was, sometimes, a victimless crime. Some mothers and fathers killed their children and ate them. … But other parents asked their children to make use of their own bodies if they passed away. More than one Ukrainian child had to tell a brother or sister: ‘Mother says that we should eat her if she dies.’ ”
Timothy Snyder, “Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin”
Macky
Easy mate. Unlike some, I do not live on this blog.
I support one state solution in Israeli-Palestinian conflict. State where both Jews and Arabs have equal rights and responsibilities.
This is a fascinating read
“How Cold War-Hungry Neocons Stage Managed RT Anchor Liz Wahl’s Resignation”
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/how_cold_war-hungry_neocons_stage_managed_liz_wahls_resignation_20140319
Oh Uzbek in the UK, you’ve changed your mind about giving us the benefit of your views on this the following then;
“I’m not asking you to furnish a academic multi-volumed dissertation on “Chauvinism & The Israeli Psyche” ! Instead, given the commonly accepted general dictionary definition of the word, which I trust you are familiar with, (otherwise you could not label the Russians as “chauvinists”), and because you made a comment that “Arabs and Jews must be given the same right in the state of Israel”, I am merely asking you if the Jewish belief of “Chooseness”, (just like the American notion of “Manifest Destiny”), can be considered as “chauvinistic” in your view ?”
Speaking of neocons, Dre…(x-posted from other thread)
I’m glad I’m not the only one thinking ‘misdirection’.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/03/20-2
“Then came an unexpected turn of events calling that story deeply into question. On March 7 Americans began to drown in a deluge of headlines pointing them thousands of miles from Ukraine, to Malaysia, where Flight 370 had inexplicably vanished.
Ever since, the mystery of 370 has at least rivaled, and more often eclipsed, Ukraine in U.S. news headlines — even in our most respected elite news sources. Ten days after it disappeared, Flight 370 still held five of the top six spots on the New York Times website’s “most viewed” list, while Ukraine limped in at numbers 8 and 9. Over at the Washington Post site, the missing flight took two of the top four spots on “Post Most” (and an impending snowstorm held the other two). No sign of Ukraine at all.”
Ben, Mary
Yes the USA is still a net importer of natural gas.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/natgas.cfm?src=Natural-b1
So the export terminals don’t exist and the US is still a net importer of natural gas (from Canada). The US officially projects they will become a net exporter in 2018. Even if you believe that it is a lot of time for Europe to wait.
Oh and take a look at current US natural gas stocks.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Check the storage chart at http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.gif
Natural gas inventories end the heating season below one trillion cubic feet for the first time since 2003
Squonk/AA; Yeah. Two months ago my propane guy was predicting $5 per gal, but it’s held steady at less than 3. Polar vortex in the East and Midwest was the sucking sound.
Ben,
Note that propane is considered a liquid by the industry and is lumped alongside oil production in “Total Liquids and not natural gas production. The US is of course a net importer of propane as well. See http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WPRIM_NUS-Z00_2&f=W
Looks like there was a brief spike of consumer propane price to $4/gallon
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPLLPA_PRS_NUS_DPG&f=W
Average US consumer propane price $3.08/gallon as of 17th March according to EIA.
Uzbek in the UK, I agree that Macky is quite mad. You can see what I mean in the argument linked; look further back as well if you wish, s/he’s been at it for days, possibly weeks now:
https://squonk.tk/blog/2014/01/20/the-general-discussion-thread/comment-page-8/#comment-4550
“I’m glad I’m not the only one thinking ‘misdirection’.”
Well, at least, Ben, people here can keep more than one story in their heads at the same time!
Has/have the mod(s) noticed that I am being channelled again. Smutty too.
eg
“PS Why has Obama surrounded himself with these warlike harpies? Rice, Power, Nuland, Jones (in Oddie’s link) or did Shillary play a large part in the placements?
I am ashamed to be of the same sex as them.”
_______________________
In that case, dear MARY, I would recommend a sex change operation. You might have to go private, though.
Are your objections to Putin that he’s a baddie or that he’s the same as mountebanks like Obama and his satraps?
Perhaps the Putinistas might wish to comment on the appearance of this neo Nazi on their favourite TV channel.
http://www.interpretermag.com/rts-manuel-ochsenreiter/
I look forward to their invasion of the RT studios in response.
For all those who assured us that the Russians, including Putin in his recent speech, would protect the rights of the Crimean Tatars please note that their leader has now been declared persona non grata.
Do our resident Putinistas care?
Clark
This explains your absence from this forum. I see you have been having your own battles with one of THESE lately.
https://news.vice.com/articles/crimean-tatars-hardly-reassured-by-putin-s-promises-of-inclusion
Lots of wargames coming up and current, in Bulgaria, Poland, and Ukraine itself. Surely the US isn’t even thinking it. Surely not…
Questions: How many American military bases are there around the world? How much of their profits do companies such as Pepsico (Pizza Hut) make in these bases, many of which seem to have fast food outlets? This is aside from companies such as KBR, Bechtel, Halliburton and the arms companies of course.
Just a thought.
I’m lovin’ it.
I’m shootin’ it.
I lose a leg in the process.
Macky
I have never said that I was expert on Chauvinism but I certainly know a LOT about RUSSIAN Chauvinism. I also said that my knowledge of Middle East is very limited comparing to my knowledge of Russia and its former colonies.
I was asked whether I was Zionist and my views on one or two state solutions in Arab-Israeli conflict. I have responded to both questions and yet despite my resistance to continue being dragged into discussion on the matter of which I know very little you are trying to provoke me further and further.
Is this your tactic?
This particular Thread is about Putin’s speech which derives from recent Russian intervention to Ukraine and Anschluss of Crimea. Please stick to the thread’s topic.
It is actually fascinating to see how some MAD lefties on this forum who blame current US government (as they said White Father) for genocide against American Indians at the same time turn their blind eye on another GENOCIDED ethnogroup – Crimean Tatars.
MAD lefties, how many of you know what happened to Crimean Tatars between 1921 and 1944?
Providing you answer to the previous question with some sensible knowledge
MAD lefties, who to blame for what has happened to Crimean Tatars?
In particular I would LOVE to hear from John Goss, Macky, Doug Scorgie, Ben, Squonk and Mike.
Mary and Sofia Kibo Noh I would be grateful to hear your opinion too.
Thanks.
The short answer, Uzbek: A nasty, paranoid, murderous regime did that to the Tatars.
A world away from the human sunburst that happened in 1917. That showed us, briefly, what ordinary people can achieve when they are set free from the profit motive. Then the psychopaths and bureaucrats came along and fucked it all up.
How many deaths have America been responsible for since 1945?
‘Scuse the grammar.
The weekend swallee is flowing.
@Richard
Yeah, I spat my tea when Kerry said “You don’t invade countries on trumped up motives in the 21st Century” or thereabouts.
These US Global Gangster Fucktards must think we’ve all forgotten about Iraq and half a dozen other illegal Wars in the last 14 years. Putin may be a Gangster too, but at least he’s not insulting my intelligence.
Kempe
Russians have cleansed at least 100.000 Chechens in the most recent history already (since 1993). Remember that both Chechens and Crimean Tatars have been treated particularly harshly by Russians ever since Russians have taken over their lands. The last time Crimean Tatars many Crimean Tatars have been sent to certain death was between 1942 and 1944 (this is excluding forced starvation between 1921 and 1923). Chechens have been deported by Stalin in 1944.
Following this historical parallels it is (unfortunately) time for Crimean Tatars to be cleansed again. I expect inter-ethnic provocations from Russians against Crimean Tatars and as result another wave of harsh treatment of the latter. Russians hate when any of the minority groups have true knowledge of their heritage and their history which in most cases ultimately come across harsh treatment by Russians and as result prevents these minority groups to be fed common propaganda about kind and caring Russian brothers who saved these minorities from (choose) Mongols, Chinese, Arabs, Turks, Germans, Swedish. The others so called late joiners (like Central Asians for example) were spoon fed another type of propaganda about culturally and morally more developed Russian brothers who came to these (Central Asian) lands to educate and modernise these barbarian people.
I fear for Crimean Tatars, I fear for Ukrainians, I fear for Moldovans, I fear for Kazakhs I fear for Azerbaijanians and I ultimately fear for anyone whose lands putin has already drown into borders of New Russian Empire.
Mike
What I POOR demonstration of knowledge of Russian/soviet history. Do you know that Stalin was Lenin’s right hand since early 1900s. Have you heard of his nickname Koba? Do you know that Stalin before he became Stalin was robbing banks and trains and putting the money into Communist Party, so that Lenin could comfortably design his future (fuck all these Russians and who else Romanov’s rule) plan?
Have you heard about Red Terror? It was initiated by Lenin in order to consolidate his power and get rid of so called white elements. I quoted both infamous Lenin’s quotes on this blog.
Mike, please for goodness sake read something on Russian history. It is fascinating how many of YOU write here in support of Putin NOT knowing where his policies are coming from and (most likely) where these policies are leading.
OrwellianUK
“Putin may be a Gangster too, but at least he’s not insulting my intelligence.”
Of course putin is not insulting your inteligence. Something that does not exist (at least when comes to knowing what putin is) cannot be insulted.
Well Done. George Orwell (if was alive) would be proud of you.
I have read about the 170,000 allied troops that invaded Russia in 1918/19 in a vain attempt to support Admiral Kolchak’s whites.
I also know Stalin was a cunt.
My question still stands.
But I’ll read the answer tomorrow, if I may.
Peace and love, Uzbek.
John Goss
You said “This is likely to raise a few blood pressures. Just how has the western-backed coup backfired? and then AGAIN gave link to RT http://rt.com/politics/putin-rating-crimea-peak-041/
I say, just like Hitler’s rating after Annexation of Sudetland
By the way, do you see any methodological commonalities between these two?
Some info on how Hitler worked http://ww2db.com/battle_spec.php?battle_id=87