I listened live to Putin’s speech yesterday with great interest. Here is my own analysis, for what it is worth.
Putin was strongest in his accusations of western hypocrisy. His ironic welcoming of the West having suddenly discovered the concept of international law was very well done. His analysis of the might is right approach the West had previously adopted, and their contempt of the UN over Iraq and Afghanistan, was spot on. Putin also was absolutely right in describing the Kosovo situation as “highly analogous” to the situation in Crimea. That is indeed true, and attempts by the West – including the Guardian – to argue the cases are different are pathetic exercises in special pleading.
The problem is that Putin blithely ignored the enormous logical inconsistency in his argument. He stated that the Crimean and Kosovo cases were highly analogous, but then used that to justify Russia’s action in Crimea, despite the fact that Russia has always maintained the NATO Kosovo intervention was illegal(and still refuses to recognize Kosovo). In fact of course Russia was right over Kosovo, and thus is wrong over Crimea.
I was very interested that Putin made distinct reference to the appalling crimes against the Tartars in the 1930’s, but also to the terrible suffering of Ukrainians in that period. His references were not detailed but their meaning was clear. I was surprised because under Putin’s rule there has been a great deal of rehabilitation of Stalin. Archives that were opened under glasnost have frozen over again, and history in Russian schools now portrays Stalin’s foreign policy achievement much more than his crimes (and it is now again possible to complete your Russian school education with no knowledge the Stalin-Hitler pact ever happened). So this was both surprising and positive. Designed to be positive was his assurance that Crimea will be trilingual. We will see what happens; Putin’s Russia is in fact not tolerant of its ethnic populations in majority Russian areas, and in fact contains a great many more far right thugs than Ukraine – probably about the same percentage of the population.
The 97% referendum figure is simply unbelievable to any reasonable person and is straight out of the Soviet playbook – it was strange to see Putin going in and out of modern media friendly mode and his audience, with their Soviet en brosse haircuts and synchronized clapping – obviously liked the Soviet bits best.
The attempt to downplay Russia’s diplomatic isolation was also a bit strange. He thanked China, though China had very pointedly failed to support Russian in the Security Council. When you are forced to thank people for abstaining, you are not in a strong position diplomatically. He also thanked India, which is peculiar, because the Indian PM yesterday put out a press release saying Putin had called him, but the had urged Putin to engage diplomatically with the interim government in Kiev, which certainly would not be welcome to Putin. I concluded that Putin was merely trying to tell his domestic audience Russia has support, even when it does not.
But what I find really strange is that the parts of the speech I found most interesting have not drawn any media comment I can see. Putin plainly said that in his discussions with Kuchma on the boundaries of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they hadn’t wanted to open any dispute with what they expected to be a friendly neighbor, and that therefore the boundaries of Ukraine had never been finally demarcated. He said twice the boundaries had not been demarcated. That seemed to indicate a very general threat to Eastern Ukraine. He also spoke of the common heritage of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in a way that indicated that he did not accept that Ukraine might choose a political future away from Russia.
Secondly, he said that on the day the Soviet Union broke up, Russians in many places had “woken up to find themselves in a foreign country.” Again from the context in which he said it, this referred not just to Crimea, and not just even to the rest of Ukraine, but to Russian nationals all over the Former Soviet Union. I would be worrying a lot about this part of the speech if I was Kazakh, to give just one example. Putin seemed to be outlining a clear agenda to bring Russian speaking areas of CIS countries back in to Mother Russia – indeed, I see no other possible interpretation of his actions in Georgia and Ukraine.
I think that we should start listening much more carefully to what he says. I also think that the weakness of the EU’s response to events gives Putin a very dangerous encouragement to pursue further aggrandizement. I posted a few days ago:
The EU I expect to do nothing. Sanctions will target a few individuals who are not too close to Putin and don’t keep too many of their interests in the West. I don’t think Alisher Usmanov and Roman Abramovic need lose too much sleep, that Harrods need worry or that we will see any flats seized at One Hyde Park. (It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.) Neither do I expect to see the United States do anything effective; its levers are limited.
The truth is of course that the global political elite are in the pockets of the global financial elite, and while ordinary Russians are still desperately poor, the money the oligarchs rip out of Russia’s backward commodity exporting economy is parceled around the world financial system in ways that make it impossible for the western political classes to do anything. Whose funds would the hedge fund managers look after? Whose yacht could Mandelson and Osborne holiday on?
Personally I should like to see a complete financial freeze on the entire Russian oligarchy. The knock on effects would only hurt a few bankers, and city types and those who depend on them (cocaine dealers, lap dancers, Porsche dealers, illegal domestic servants). Sadly we shan’t see anything happen. They won’t let Eton go bust.
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/03/deconstructing-putin/comment-page-3/#comment-448169
More of the channelling Mod.
I should of course said Syrian Sunni not Shia in my post to Macky – but the same argument could of course be applied to the Shia in Bahrain or Lebanon – just as it was applied in the past to the Sudenten and Danzig Germans.
I just re-read pando.com/2014/03/17/the-war-nerd-everything-you-know-about-crimea-is-wrong-er/
Plenty to consider there. The comments are almost as revealing as here on Uncle Craig’s blog, but obviously will never attain our stellar quality.
There’s one here from culturedallroundman that provides additional detail about past referenda in Crimea.
Clearly the corporate media’s credibility is cracking.
Clark (in reply to Ben)
“Ben-MAD, 2:33 pm; Craig didn’t sow any of this, unless you mean by having a very open policy on comments.”
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Agree. You see, Clark, the problem is that the Eminences don’t like having their ‘arguments’ questioned. For some strange reason they think that they’re entitled to set the agenda on here and when they don’t succeed in shutting someone up they start issuing threats: Mod, ban him! I’m leaving! Etc, etc.
Let Ben leave – I don’t think his contributions were such as to make people regret his absence.
Apologies, I messed up that link. Here it is.
pando.com/2014/03/17/the-war-nerd-everything-you-know-about-crimea-is-wrong-er/
“No irony in the fact that his paymaster at the Evening Standard is one of the Russian oligarchs who bled the Russian people dry and stole their resources.”
But there definitely was irony in the article by his son in his paper recently which took a rather uncritical line regarding Putin’s involvement in the Crimea. Fortunately, he doesn’t go as far as stamping on the diversity of opinion that Mary clearly finds something of an anathema.
Sofia
Strange that the everything you need to know article doesn’t mention the 1992 Ukraine independence referendum just the Soviet 1991 one – why is that?
Tovarish Goss!
“I do not agree even though in your “experience people who believe one conspiracy theory generally believe all conspiracy theories” so let’s stick with 9/11, or otherwise I will think you are trying to divert the discussion, and we get too much of that.”
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What a hypocrite you are! And, like Tartuffe, you don’t even realise it.
You yourself started diverting this thread in order to – yet again, for the n th time – air your theories about 9/11. (By the way, we are all – and that includes CXraig Murray – sick of hearing them).
And then you accuse Kempe of diverting the discussion away from 9/11.
You are a devious Stalinist.
Clark:
“Resident Dissident, 6:22 pm:
“And how do you suggest we prove that we are not [the same contributor]?”
Well you could comment under your real name, or link to contact details like I do”
_______________________
And how many of the other Eminences do so? Please name them.
(BTW, do say that some people use their Christian names; that says nothing at all).
Comedy time – a gem from the Bluntest Knife, aka Macky
“The only bullying is actually coming from Uzbek, with his “MAD Lefies” slurs at everybody to browbeat & intimate them ! ”
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Hilarious – and typical (I got the same treatment myself): the Eminences, backed up on this occasion by a suspicious number of “brand new” commenters, trumpet a certain lone about Ukraine/Russia/Crimea. One poster (Uzbek) comes alonjg with a different, opposing view…which he has the gall to maintain. And, lo and behold, it’s Uzbek who’s the bully!
You really couldn’t make it up.
RD. 8 24am
Break open the Champaigne. We have found a sliver of common ground!
The reason I flagged culturalroundman was because he provides details that throw light on the broader picture. This includes the 1992 referendum which you so kindly point to.
I’ll save you from scrolling through to find it. Here’s a direct link. http://www.livefyre.com/profile/34692310/
You ask, “why is that?” You need to address your question to Gary Brecher, but my guess is he’d tell you that all that would need another long article.
That is an omission rather than a falsehood. Can you point to anything in the article that is plainly untrue?
Esrly one (Sunday) morning just as the sun was rising….
the trolls/disrupters/diverters came out in force.
Like an air raid.
Mary.
“Like an air raid”…by a flock of incontinent turkeys. (Sorry Dad)
““The commission was a farce and you know it.”
No I don’t – its conclusion was critical of the failings of the CIA – and you told a bare faced lie in saying that there was no enquiry,”
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Bad night for the Tovarish – second time he got caught out in a terminological inexactitude, aka a lie. Of course, I’ve caught him out in several at various times in the past (his usual reply is “I made a mistake”).
“John Goss
It is fairly clear that there was shooting on the streets of Kyiv well before the shootings which Ashton discussed.”
This is typical of you RD. You weren’t there in Kiev. You’ve said this before and provided no evidence. You just don’t know, do you? So you make it up.
Where is the evidence that the shooting by sniper(s) from protestors on protestors and police, referred to by Paet, and unreported by MSM, were not the first? You haven’t got any. Because if there was any there would be an Inquiry which even Catherine Ashton agreed there should be. So cut the crap.
…But then Putin came along and, using his experience in the KGB and connections with other post-Soviet “power ministeries,” he crafted a new order, which first decimated and either supplanted or absorbed the gangsters, and then imposed what Putin has termed “the dictatorship of the law.” This is the first important piece of the new Russian ideology: law matters and nobody can be above it—not even the United States.
From,
http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/the-madness-of-president-putin.html
Recommended listening.
The Sunday Service from the Syrian Orthodox Cathedral in London.
Inside Anger
Duration: 38 minutes
First broadcast:Sunday 23 March 2014’Inside anger.’ In the third of Radio 4’s series ‘Inside Lent,’ Martin Palmer, Secretary General of the Alliance of Religions and Conservation reflects on the difference between blind and righteous anger.
From the Syrian Orthodox Cathedral in West London with His Eminence Archbishop Mar Athanasius, Patriarchal Vicar of the Syrian Orthodox Church in Great Britain. With comments from the Prince of Wales from his speech given last December in support of the Christian Communities in Syria and the Holy Land generally.
On iPlayer shortly
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03ymr4p
Off topic. Please ignore.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152680035252646
There is a transcript of the service on the link. Salutary to read the spoken words.
Ignore my comment at 9.28 it was off topic. This will always be on topic because it is about sock puppetry and trying to determine who are the genuine dissenters and who are the trolls.
http://johngossip.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/the-sock-puppeteer.html
You’ve said this before and provided no evidence
I thought that possibly you had read the newspapers on what was happening in the Ukraine before February – but clearly not. This is a good a summary as any http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan
– look at the links if you want further evidence.
On the contrary it is your theory that it was ALL started by fascists that has no evidence. Please note the ALL.
Spot on John and I like your cartoon.
Note the weasel-word ALL. Safety in numbers…
[craigmurray.org.uk – from same IP address as: Ben-MAD Western Carnivore and Warmonger]
Amanpour the msm stooge is way out of her depth with Amb Churkin when she tries to mess with him. He exposes her shallowness.
‘Russian ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin has issued a response to Christiane Amanpour after the CNN anchor lashed out at the diplomat over his inability to appear on her show and brought his daughter into the equation.
In her Thursday show, Amanpour said: “And one more note: we continue to reach out to the Russian government for their comment, including officials such as UN Ambassador, Vitaly Churkin. We haven’t had much luck, but perhaps people like Churkin feel they don’t really have to leave their comfort zone.”
“Churkin’s own daughter is the US-based reporter for ‘Russia Today’ in New York. She’s shown here, quizzing US State Department spokesman, Jen Psaki, over this whole Ukraine crisis. And in the past, she’s even reported on her own father.”
—-
Dear Ms. Amanpour,
I am taken aback by the personal attacks you resorted to in your show on March 20. I have known you for many years (including through a number of on-the-air interviews) and used to respect you professionally. So it was somewhat startling that my inability to give another interview provoked such an outburst.
As to my unwillingness, as you put it, to leave my “comfort zone” – you are absolutely right. After 8 meetings of the Security Council on the situation in Ukraine and Crimea (six of them in front of TV cameras) I feel very comfortable that the truth is beginning to come across.
If, though, you imply that I don’t want to answer tough questions, then you are mature enough to know that I spoke to the “full house” at the Washington National Cathedral in October, 1983, two weeks after the South Korean airliner was downed, and then testified at the US Congress in May of 1986 after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, not to mention hundreds of other media and “live” appearances. So I can explain to anyone what “leaving a comfort zone” means.
But I wouldn’t be writing to you if you did not also choose to personally attack my daughter – your younger colleague – a Russian TV journalist. I am very proud of her – not only is she a good journalist, but she strictly keeps her professional distance from me.
Incidentally, I recall you married the State Department Spokesman. How was your professional credibility in the course of your courtship?
Don’t bother to answer. I don’t really want to know.’
Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin
http://rt.com/usa/churkin-response-amanpour-cnn-465/
Sofia
Your quote from Orlov would be comical were it not so tragic. Please ask any ordinary Russian if they think that the oligarchs who toe the Putin line are subject to the same laws as they are – juts read anything about Russia other than the propaganda put out by the regime and the favoured oligarchs. Where do you think all this money being pumped into yachts, property etc. actually comes from?
PS Gary Brecher is associated with eXile magazine which in turn has links with Eduard Limonov (look him up) who even Putin has found a little too embarrassing in the past.
The rule of law under Putin
http://www.interpretermag.com/winter-olympics-in-the-sub-tropics-corruption-and-abuse-in-sochi/
The people in Ukraine will discover the truth when the ‘austerity’ bites.
EU-Ukraine trade pact paves way for brutal austerity
“Amid intensifying US and European Union sanctions and military provocations against Russia, the EU and the Western-backed government in Ukraine yesterday signed a pact that paves the way for brutal austerity measures and free market reforms.
The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is based on the deal that former President Viktor Yanukovych’s Ukrainian government rejected, leading to the US- and EU-instigated protests and violence that ousted him last month.
The pact, signed in Brussels, declares that the Ukrainian government must “embark swiftly on an ambitious program of structural reforms” and submit to “an agreement with the [International Monetary Fund].” The plans being drawn up are based on the “Greek model”—the savage cuts imposed on Greece by the IMF and the EU that have produced a massive growth in unemployment and poverty.”
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/03/22/ukra-m22.html
The massive protest in Madrid yesterday against such austerity was very much under reported in the UK lamestream media. Now why should that be?
23 March 2014 Last updated at 00:13
Spain austerity: Huge Madrid protest turns violent
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26703528
http://news.yahoo.com/britons-rate-russia-more-positively-eu-poll-shows-003103687.html;_ylt=AwrTWfx3PS5TkwEAwQHQtDMD
“London (AFP) – Britons see Russia in a more positive light than the European Union, despite recent tensions with Moscow over Ukraine, according to a poll published on Saturday.
The results of the online poll of 20,000 people between 7 and 20 January organised by Conservative party peer Lord Michael Aschcroft were published in Rupert Murdoch’s British tabloid The Sun on Sunday.”
[craigmurray.org.uk – from same IP address as: Ben-MAD Western Carnivore and Warmonger]
“The results of the online poll of 20,000 people between 7 and 20 January ”
A lot has happened in the two months since besides rating above the EU isn’t very difficult in this country.
“John Goss
It is fairly clear that there was shooting on the streets of Kyiv well before the shootings which Ashton discussed.”
RD
Where do the links you provide at 1:40 p.m. support this outrageous lie. You made the statement, knowing it was a lie, then when you could not find anything to support it provided a couple of Wikipedia links and wanted me to go looking for corroboration for you. Why don’t you just admit you made it up and thought nobody would notice. At least if I make a mistake I admit it, but to deliberately lie, and then not apologise is pretty despicable..