I listened live to Putin’s speech yesterday with great interest. Here is my own analysis, for what it is worth.
Putin was strongest in his accusations of western hypocrisy. His ironic welcoming of the West having suddenly discovered the concept of international law was very well done. His analysis of the might is right approach the West had previously adopted, and their contempt of the UN over Iraq and Afghanistan, was spot on. Putin also was absolutely right in describing the Kosovo situation as “highly analogous” to the situation in Crimea. That is indeed true, and attempts by the West – including the Guardian – to argue the cases are different are pathetic exercises in special pleading.
The problem is that Putin blithely ignored the enormous logical inconsistency in his argument. He stated that the Crimean and Kosovo cases were highly analogous, but then used that to justify Russia’s action in Crimea, despite the fact that Russia has always maintained the NATO Kosovo intervention was illegal(and still refuses to recognize Kosovo). In fact of course Russia was right over Kosovo, and thus is wrong over Crimea.
I was very interested that Putin made distinct reference to the appalling crimes against the Tartars in the 1930’s, but also to the terrible suffering of Ukrainians in that period. His references were not detailed but their meaning was clear. I was surprised because under Putin’s rule there has been a great deal of rehabilitation of Stalin. Archives that were opened under glasnost have frozen over again, and history in Russian schools now portrays Stalin’s foreign policy achievement much more than his crimes (and it is now again possible to complete your Russian school education with no knowledge the Stalin-Hitler pact ever happened). So this was both surprising and positive. Designed to be positive was his assurance that Crimea will be trilingual. We will see what happens; Putin’s Russia is in fact not tolerant of its ethnic populations in majority Russian areas, and in fact contains a great many more far right thugs than Ukraine – probably about the same percentage of the population.
The 97% referendum figure is simply unbelievable to any reasonable person and is straight out of the Soviet playbook – it was strange to see Putin going in and out of modern media friendly mode and his audience, with their Soviet en brosse haircuts and synchronized clapping – obviously liked the Soviet bits best.
The attempt to downplay Russia’s diplomatic isolation was also a bit strange. He thanked China, though China had very pointedly failed to support Russian in the Security Council. When you are forced to thank people for abstaining, you are not in a strong position diplomatically. He also thanked India, which is peculiar, because the Indian PM yesterday put out a press release saying Putin had called him, but the had urged Putin to engage diplomatically with the interim government in Kiev, which certainly would not be welcome to Putin. I concluded that Putin was merely trying to tell his domestic audience Russia has support, even when it does not.
But what I find really strange is that the parts of the speech I found most interesting have not drawn any media comment I can see. Putin plainly said that in his discussions with Kuchma on the boundaries of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they hadn’t wanted to open any dispute with what they expected to be a friendly neighbor, and that therefore the boundaries of Ukraine had never been finally demarcated. He said twice the boundaries had not been demarcated. That seemed to indicate a very general threat to Eastern Ukraine. He also spoke of the common heritage of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in a way that indicated that he did not accept that Ukraine might choose a political future away from Russia.
Secondly, he said that on the day the Soviet Union broke up, Russians in many places had “woken up to find themselves in a foreign country.” Again from the context in which he said it, this referred not just to Crimea, and not just even to the rest of Ukraine, but to Russian nationals all over the Former Soviet Union. I would be worrying a lot about this part of the speech if I was Kazakh, to give just one example. Putin seemed to be outlining a clear agenda to bring Russian speaking areas of CIS countries back in to Mother Russia – indeed, I see no other possible interpretation of his actions in Georgia and Ukraine.
I think that we should start listening much more carefully to what he says. I also think that the weakness of the EU’s response to events gives Putin a very dangerous encouragement to pursue further aggrandizement. I posted a few days ago:
The EU I expect to do nothing. Sanctions will target a few individuals who are not too close to Putin and don’t keep too many of their interests in the West. I don’t think Alisher Usmanov and Roman Abramovic need lose too much sleep, that Harrods need worry or that we will see any flats seized at One Hyde Park. (It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.) Neither do I expect to see the United States do anything effective; its levers are limited.
The truth is of course that the global political elite are in the pockets of the global financial elite, and while ordinary Russians are still desperately poor, the money the oligarchs rip out of Russia’s backward commodity exporting economy is parceled around the world financial system in ways that make it impossible for the western political classes to do anything. Whose funds would the hedge fund managers look after? Whose yacht could Mandelson and Osborne holiday on?
Personally I should like to see a complete financial freeze on the entire Russian oligarchy. The knock on effects would only hurt a few bankers, and city types and those who depend on them (cocaine dealers, lap dancers, Porsche dealers, illegal domestic servants). Sadly we shan’t see anything happen. They won’t let Eton go bust.
Ben
What is evident that in order to have better cases of both socialism and capitalism rule of law must be paramount. Both have been largely ignored in Russia whose society was brought up as paternalistic by submission to the highest authority (Czar, Leader – Vozhd, president) which was/is seen as major source of wisdom.
Case with shortage of law and financial capitalism out of control in the west is yet another proof of this thesis.
USdot.gov is the Great White Father, or whomever is in the Whitehouse.
Technicolour; “murderous Western brutality”
Well done, you finally got a link you can use, shame it’s missed the moment !
As to my comment, it was very clearly stated as to whom it was concerning !
Technicolour.
In sorry to have underestimated you ignorance.
In this context the “Great Father” is the US president. I know I invited you to ask but next time you have a dumb question like that please ask you grandchildren.
For the sake of humanity, can we please stop quoting RT as a source for at least as long as dust over Crimea sets? Is not it obvious that this is one of the major channels of official Russian propaganda to the western audience?
Quoting RT now (to me) would be like quoting CNN during Iraq invasion.
Ben.
Re “Great Father’s” identity.
Thanks for getting in before me.
How can someone ask that with a straight face?
Craig seems to be coming round to a sensible viewoint at last, thoug I differ with this:
‘In fact of course Russia was right over Kosovo, and thus is wrong over Crimea.’
Firstly, the fact that putin was right over Kosovo hasn’t altered the facts on the ground. I believe that Putin was using the much stronger argument regarding International Law. i.e. if there is not equality under the law, then there is no law.
In other words, it has become a kind of prisoner’s dilemma – if one party cheats and gets away with it then it is rational for all other parties to cheat too.
As regards Ukraine getting back its nukes, then I can only say that I am eternally grateful that sane heads signed the 1994 memoorandum – perhaps they envisaged a time when a near bankrupt Ukraine might be overcome by right-wing nationalist forces.
I shudder to think how long the likes of Yarosh and Tyahnybok could resist pressing the button.
Yes, of course, ‘Sofia’ – one minute we are exchanging serious views on the Shock Doctrine, and the next I am supposed to understand your esoteric and biased and frankly weird subtext. I get it now. Go
USdot.gov is the Great White Father, or whomever is in the Whitehouse.
In whose fucking wierd shit mindset?
“In sorry to have underestimated you ignorance.”
I feel, for the most part, it is intentional. The Innertubes is the most fantastic library is the World.
No Dewey-Decimal system to fool with. No searching for that omni-digit cuneiform hyroglypheric.
only to find it checked out.
Instant gratification. It’s so 21st century.
Craig,
CNN (Domestic) just ran with that attack on the tv executive. The two-way between presenters went something like:
Q: So it’s not as simple as ‘Putin bad guy, Ukranians good?’.
A) No it’s not that simple. There are some really nasty people in the new Ukranian government.
Then the closing comment: “It just goes to show not everyone the US gets into bed with is a good guy”
Or that’s approximately what they said.
Here’s the BBC story
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26653295
Macky
I am not claiming that US/UK were/are on the right track when it comes to expansionist wars.
I am saying that Russia is wrong at this very moment denying Ukraine it deserved sovereignty. I am convinced that after centuries of abuse, oppression and genocide Ukrainans deserve for once to decide their own fate.
Why people like you think that just because US/UK can kill people Russia also have to be given green light? Those countries have less than 500 million population between them, what about the rest 6 billion? Do they have any rights? Can they PLEASE decide their own fate without being intimidated by one of these 3? Are you OK with that? or your MAD leftie doctrine only dictate you to stick to what is bad for US/UK is good for the rest? What a sh..ty doctrine is this?
Eeergh. Out of here! (shakes slime off shoes)
Sofia, Woah! Woah! You can’t link articles like that! 436 Russian MPs voting against having a good old gay party. Have they not heard of gay rights? My God we’ll be going back to the days when, as they used to tell me, “men were men, and women were glad of them.”
Well, that was enlightening.
It is fascinating to call whomever is in white house white father when at present (and for the last 7 years) there have been mixed white-african american occupant in that house, with his wife – descendant of former slaves.
MAD lefties are so limited by their cliché.
Technicolour. 12 13am
What “wierd subtext”?
US doctrine of “Full Spectrum Dominance” is easy to understand. The ensuing violence and misery can be clearly seen wherever this blighted empire sets up shop.
See what historian William Blum has to say on the subject.
http://williamblum.org/chapters/rogue-state/united-states-bombings-of-other-countries
OMG ! Obama is whiter than I am, and I’m Irish/Scot/German/Blackfoot/Cherokee, so that makes me what, beige?
Uzzie’s completely objective view of the Russians:
“ruled by notion of Russian chauvinism. In fact because of this very notion it was always easy to manipulate Russians by their rulers. Russian were/are ready to sacrifice their lives for greatness of their nation. For Mother Russia they say.”
I thought you were talking about the British Empire there for a moment or the French, Spanish, Ottoman, Roman, Zzzzzz….
So tell us again Uzzie why you love the American empire?
Now Uzbek declares the moral high ground with his American Studies 101, making him High Poobah of insider’s perspective. You have reached a new level of stupid, my good man. You may have some gravitas on your specialty, but you are not welcome to purge your prejudicial preferences on my home field.
Squonk thanks for that knowledge that the BBC and CNN are starting to report more unbiasedly. They’ve got a lot of catching up to do. It would not surprise me if some evidence has come to light about what kind of nasties the US has crept into bed with.
I sense progress. So I’m off to bed. Goodnight all.
DomesticExtremist
I agree on that 1994 bluff was positive thing. But it will be very difficult now to convince any (newly declared or about to be declared) nuclear club members to give up their nukes for bluff of protection from any of the 3 bluffers.
I bid that Nursultan Nazarbaev is bating his elbows now for buying the same sh..t from the same bluffers + China.
Ben
Sorry I don’t follow your question. 99% of the time I just let the mods get on with it.
John Goss
Or quite contrary. As Mr Murray noticed BBC is probably trying not to scare russian oligarchs (more their money of course) from unrealistically expensive London property markets.
BBC for instance still keeps calling Russian military men in Crimea as pro-Russian forces. Even after Putin’s conversation with Crimea Tatar leader at which Putin assured him that these men mean no harm to Crimea Tatars. Now if you were NOT in charge of 15.000 armed men, would you assure someone that they mean to harm to him?
Ben
You can play that racial card as much as you want. The fact remains that it is at least stupid to call mixed race person white father.
Times change cliché remains.
Uzbek. Here’s a good read that will clarify why for many people, over many generations the US state has been an unmitigated disaster.
“Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee: An Indian History of the American West” by Dee Brown
The author uses council records, autobiographies, and firsthand descriptions, Brown allows great chiefs and warriors of the Dakota, Ute, Sioux, Cheyenne, and other tribes to tell us in their own words of the series of battles, massacres, and broken treaties that finally left them and their people demoralized and decimated and .a whole continent in the grip of a foreign kleptocracy.
Uzbek in the UK; “I am not claiming that US/UK were/are on the right track when it comes to expansionist wars.”
I didn’t say you were; just pointing out there’s a huge wild forest fire raging compared to the little bonfire you seem to exclusively focus on.
“I am saying that Russia is wrong at this very moment denying Ukraine it deserved sovereignty. I am convinced that after centuries of abuse, oppression and genocide Ukrainans deserve for once to decide their own fate.”
But they are not ! What they are doing is objecting to a violent coup that put into power not just fascists, but Western stooge fascists who will bring NATO missiles right up to their border. The realpolitik context is strangely missing in the MSM narrative.
“Why people like you think that just because US/UK can kill people Russia also have to be given green light? Those countries have less than 500 million population between them, what about the rest 6 billion? Do they have any rights? Can they PLEASE decide their own fate without being intimidated by one of these 3? Are you OK with that? or your MAD leftie doctrine only dictate you to stick to what is bad for US/UK is good for the rest? What a sh..ty doctrine is this?”
If you think I’m giving anybody a green light to kill anybody, then not only are you misreading, misapprehending, misrepresenting, but arguing with a “MAD Leftie” Macky that only exists in your imagination.
Ben
Why did you call me stupid? Just because I disagree with you and do not sing God Bless Mr Putin?
Uncle Craig.
Apologies for not coming back with a link to another photo of Yats giving that salute at another gig. I searched for a while but couldn’t find it. I still don’t think he was doing his T’ai Chi on the podium.