I had fairly well concluded that the most likely cause was a fire disrupting the electrical and control systems, when CNN now say the sharp left turn was pre-programmed 12 minutes before sign off from Malaysian Air Traffic control, which was followed fairly quickly by that left turn.
CNN claim to have this from an US official, from data sent back before the reporting systems went off. It is hard to know what to make of it: obviously there are large economic interests that much prefer blame to lie with the pilots rather than the aircraft. But if it is true then the move was not a response to an emergency. (CNN went on to say the pilot could have programmed in the course change as a contingency in case of an emergency. That made no sense to me at all – does it to anyone else?)
I still find it extremely unlikely that the plane landed or crashed on land I cannot believe it could evade military detection as it flew over a highly militarized region. Somewhere there is debris on the ocean. There have been previous pilot suicides that took the plane with them; but the long detour first seems very strange and I do not believe is precedented. However if the CNN information on pre-programming is correct, and given it was the co-pilot who signed off to air traffic control, it is hard to look beyond the pilots as those responsible for whatever did happen. In fact, on consideration, the most improbable thing is that information CNN are reporting from the US official.
FWIW, AirAsia was involved in the transport of supplies for the relief efforts in the flooded regions of Malaysia. The last time I checked, those relief efforts were still ongoing. This may be relevant to what was in the cargo hold of 8501. Has anyone found the cargo manifest?
Miscellaneous from Malaysian news recently:
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/airasia-flies-for-free-relief-goods-aid-workers-to-kota-baru-and-terengganu
http://www.airasia.com/cn/en/press-releases/interpol-and-airasia-reaffirm-integration-of-icheckit.page
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/zahid-didnt-vouch-for-underworld-kingpin-says-umno-lawyer
http://www.turnbackcrime.com/content/turn-back-crime-campaign-takes-to-the-skies
Connection to the deposed politician Anwar Ibrahim, UMNO (see previous UMNO controvery re: Tony Fernades and the Maylaysia Airlines share swap), and the “shoot to kill” statement:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Zahid_Hamidi
Media Release
3 Jan 2015
Indonesia AirAsia Surabaya-Singapore Service
http://www.caas.gov.sg/caasWeb2010/opencms/caas/en/Media/news_details.html?newsURL=http%3A%2F%2Fappserver1.caas.gov.sg%2Fcaasmediaweb2010%2Fopencms%2FJournalist%2FPress_Releases%2F2014%2Fnews_0018.html
MH-17: The Untold Story
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=iuoIw3jBV4g
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-03/airasia-route-suspension-shifts-focus-to-indonesia-agency.html
Sunday on one side, so what is Indonesia trying to cover up?
More on Indonesia’s flight safety record:
http://aviation-safety.net/database/country/country.php?id=PK
http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/iasa/definitions/
The problem seems to be with Indonesia. Changes cannot be made while a country is in category 2 status.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2897458/Indonesian-government-suspends-control-tower-staff-allowed-AirAsia-flight-8501-without-permits-punish-airport-s-operators.html
It took 162 deaths for Indonesia to do something about the issue of weather data. Too bad they didn’t listen when this was listed as a reason the country was bumped to category two status for aviation. Would they care to explain why the unauthorized flight was also moved ahead two hours, which many speculate was an attempt to outrun the storm?
Either bad weather brings down modern airliners or it doesn’t.
If it doesn’t, then why speculate ( Indonesian authorities)
that bad weather is the likely cause ( no black boxes have apparently been recovered).
If bad weather does bring down modern airliners, why allow them to fly in bad weather?
You’re right, Michael Norton. The black box is key. It’s strange how when planes go down in the vicinity of corrupt nations, recovery seems to take until after the 30-day expiry for black box info. Scapegoats are pinpointed rather quickly without any information, though. I’m predicting that bad weather will prevent recovery for 31 days or more. Not that there’s anything to recover, since they’ve already said the pings never went off. Here’s hoping I’m wrong.
With small bush pilot operations, there is often great pressure on the pilots to fly when conditions are not safe. It’s about the money. Pilots get fired if they don’t comply with the boss’s orders. No links, purely anecdotal.
It’s always helpful to bear in mind any political conflicts in the area of commercial airline downings, isn’t it?
See comments:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/airasia-flight-8501-crash-time-running-out-to-recover-floating-bodies-1420537099
Not only do they question the “cover story” (plane sections found, then unfound, currents sweeping all evidence away), they question if the failure of the black boxes was due to an explosion, assuming there ever were any black boxes on Flight 8501.
I suppose all the re-covered bodies undergo autopsy.
If they are not going to give each re-covered body an autopsy
how will they know how they died?
Is there time for autopsies? The bodies have been returned to villages for burial with great haste.
Q
you have my point.
Hastliy buried, not scientifically evaluated.
Q
Although some time had passed
all of the re-covered bodies from the Ukraine MH 17
were individually given an autopsy.
It is as if the Indonesian Authorities don’t want to find out how the passengers died?
One of the ways to determine cause of death is water in the lungs. If the passengers drowned, there should be water in their lungs. This water should contain the same diatoms that are found in the area of the crash. If the passengers were dead already, prior to impact, theoretically their lungs should not have filled with water. If water in the lungs of a dead person contains diatoms from somewhere else, then they didn’t die in the water where they were found. Diatoms are very specific.
Small villages aren’t the place for autopsies of this sort. Usually in major aviation incidents, the bodies are not released until pathologists have examined the bodies. The international parties assisting in the recovery effort would have access to pathologists, and may even be able to carry out autopsies on board their ships. They would also have access to labs in places like the U.S. that can identify diatoms.
Tony Fernandes led the way in returning the bodies to families as quickly as possible. Tony Fernandes also sold shares in an insurance company shortly before the crash. These two things may not be related.
Getting back to MH370, here’s a story about bush pilots and their non-disappearing aircraft:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/first-air-the-only-airline-in-the-world-with-black-box-data-streaming-1.2891893
There’s something about the aviation industry needing to get its act together, because “it’s really not that expensive”.
Q
I would have thought that a proper autopsy of all re-covered bodies
from this aircrash would have provided a good possibility of determining the cause of “FATAL INCIDENT”
Especially as they have bodies but they apparently do not have either of the boxes.
I wrote FATAL INCIDENT
because I do not imagine the aircraft crashed by accident.
Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Indroyono Soesilo told reporters the black box would be analysed by experts in Indonesia when it was located.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2901409/AirAsia-pay-100-000-compensation-families-victims-tragedy-searchers-claim-black-box-TODAY.html
I would not of thought the Indonesians would have that ability?
AirAsia Tail Location Mystery: Solved?
http://jeffwise.net/2015/01/08/airasia-tail-location-mystery-solved/#comments
I can not understand why the Indonesian Authorites have a problem,
either to confirm they have a black box
or
to say they do not have a black box,
how hard can that be?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-09/airasia-crash-qz8501-pings-detected-investigator-says/6008994
http://www.wsj.com/articles/many-bodies-of-airasia-passengers-wont-be-autopsied-officials-say-1420307128
Cause of death: the plane crashed. Well, there you have it.
‘People refuse to allow autopsies.’ Indonesia normally doesn’t do things things anyways. So they won’t offer that choice. Perfect circular logic.
Cause of crash: the pilots died?
From previous link: “The pathological assessments can also become important during later litigation in determining payouts…”
Tony Fernandes wants to ensure bodies are returned to families as quickly as possible. He accompanied at least one body to a remote village for interment.
Pings’ detected in search for AirAsia flight recorders
http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/01/09/pings-detected-in-search-for-airasia-fli?videoId=361720629&videoChannel=1
Looks like they might have re-covered a substantial part of the tail but again they refuse to say if the boxes are in their possession?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2904382/Tail-section-crashed-AirAsia-plane-floated-surface-giant-balloons-official-warns-black-box-sea-floor.html
If the indonesians do not think it is a good idea to have all the bodies undergo autopsie,
how can there be faith in their ability to unencrypt the black boxes?
MH17
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2904460/First-pictures-emerge-Ukrainian-pilot-pro-Russian-rebels-believe-downed-MH17-killing-298-victims-board.html