Disappearing Aircraft 5652

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I had fairly well concluded that the most likely cause was a fire disrupting the electrical and control systems, when CNN now say the sharp left turn was pre-programmed 12 minutes before sign off from Malaysian Air Traffic control, which was followed fairly quickly by that left turn.

CNN claim to have this from an US official, from data sent back before the reporting systems went off.  It is hard to know what to make of it: obviously there are large economic interests that much prefer blame to lie with the pilots rather than the aircraft.  But if it is true then the move was not a response to an emergency.  (CNN went on to say the pilot could have programmed in the course change as a contingency in case of an emergency.  That made no sense to me at all – does it to anyone else?)

I still find it extremely unlikely that the plane landed or crashed on land  I cannot believe it could evade military detection as it flew over a highly militarized region.  Somewhere there is debris on the ocean.  There have been previous pilot suicides that took the plane with them; but the long detour first seems very strange and I do not believe is precedented.  However if the CNN information on pre-programming is correct, and given it was the co-pilot who signed off to air traffic control, it is hard to look beyond the pilots as those responsible for whatever did happen.  In fact, on consideration, the most improbable thing is that information CNN are reporting from the US official.

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5,652 thoughts on “Disappearing Aircraft”

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  • Reply ↓
    Pink

    http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1520176/scientists-sceptical-satellite-firm-inmarsats-raw-data-missing-malaysian

    I found this bit interesting what planet was he on when they were begging for the complete data.

    “Inmarsat admitted the data it had released had been simplified and that it had published parts that were “important”. Mark Dickinson, Inmarsat’s chief engineer, told a US television interviewer the data could not in itself be used to recreate Inmarsat’s work, but only to make a judgment about its findings.

    “What’s more pertinent is to see the messages and the important bits of information … and some explanation behind how the numbers are used,” Dickinson said. He said it required a lot of engineering expertise “from different fields”.

    DS comment at the bottom was taken from his blog.

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    Knowing that Duncan Steel’s career has included work for the European Space Agency, I sometimes wonder if there is any connection to Surrey Satellites in his past (or even to Saad al-Hilli). There’s this, of course:

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2003/jun/07/spaceexploration.comment

    I guess they disagree on the need to send humans on doomed missions with no hope of return.

    I’ve also found myself wondering if Duncan Steel was ever connected to Lachlan Cranswick in any way (dead Australian scientist who vanished under mysterious circumstances near Canada’s capital in 2010). Not so strange as it sounds. Cranswick once worked for CSIRO in Australia, in whom Duncan Steele puts a great deal of faith. Cranswick also conducted scientific tests on a downed space shuttle. Here’s what DS had to say about Columbia:

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2003/feb/03/spaceexploration.comment

    What are a few lives lost in the name of science?

    In the MH370 world of so much certainty about the data and trajectory, it seems that objects further up are full of uncertainty when it comes to tracking and prediction.

    http://www.space.com/29351-russian-progress-cargo-spacecraft-reentry.html

    My wee brain cannot comprehend it all, but I’d best believe in DS and only DS, as any other course of action might have negative consequences. However, I do find my wee brain wondering if MH370 was doing something in the name of science, and if there is a reason all those bodies of people who were once fathers, mothers, sons and daughters must not be found. They surely were not explorers embarking on an adventure, or astronauts eager to have their names in the history books. They were doing a rather mundane thing: taking the modern equivalent of a bus to work, or going home. Nothing glamorous, nothing to land them in the history books, until it all went wrong. Were they sacrificed in the name of knowledge and discovery? For pity’s sake, if Duncan Steel hadn’t gone on his ego binge, I would never have begun to wonder these things. That’s what you get for having a brain that is three sizes too small and a human heart.

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2002/sep/11/spaceexploration.research

    Has it occurred to anyone why an asteroid hunter of Duncan Steel’s prominence could be outdone by an amateur hobbyist? The answer is simple: no one knows everything. Few have ever heard of Bill Yeung. Maybe we should call on Bill Yeung for MH370 data calculations.

    Has it occurred to anyone why an asteroid hunter has become the self-declared go-to authority on a disappearing object not from space, but from earth? Should we revisit the reason for this, and go back to the early days of the MH370 saga when “space junk” and “asteroids” were being considered as remote possibilities in scenarios?

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    This article states that Duncan Steel was the number one asteroid hunter in the Southern Hemisphere.

    http://www.abc.net.au/science/k2/trek/4wd/Over11.htm

    So does it mean that Bill Yeung, the amateur who works in the property business, has a better record than the estimed expert Duncan Steel? Imagine…an amateur!

    Wiki says that DS has discovered a dozen asteroids. Even my wee brain knows that 2600+ in one decade alone trumps 12. Or am I calculating those numbers correctly?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duncan_Steel

  • Reply ↓
    Pink

    I don’t have a problem with DS I felt a bit sorry for a few people not all who didn’t make the cut on his blog ,he had a course in mind and he was a little troubled by the north south thing if he had allowed to much leeway it would have got hard to pick the wheat from the chaff I think he also found the medium of managing a blog a little tricky he has to do his day job.
    I can’t comet on asteroid hunting I know nothing about it I actually thought DS’s job was tracking them for potential impacts.
    People to Mars is an interesting one they have the volunteers for a one way ticket personally I don’t have a problem with it ,it did occur to me how the reality of it would not be so nice to watch a Big brother show in space with a terminal outcome,I hope they cut out the gory bits.
    The politics of funding space exploration goes over my head I just watch the show I am not going to be here long enough, a lifetime is not that long when there is so much to see and people
    will do what they do regardless of what I think ,evolution I think its called .

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    @Pink: I find it odd that the “expert” DS has so much distain in his blog for the opinions of those he considers beneath him. The amateurs in one case have outdone him by a factor of more than 2600 to 12 in his own field of expertise, tracking incoming asteroids and space junk. The amateurs do not get paid to do this stuff, but DS is making money from it. So if amateurs can outdo him at his own game, for which he is earning a living, perhaps he shouldn’t be scorning those who question his expertise and opinions in a field that is not his area of expertise: aviation and tracking lost planes. The only thing that crashes to earth more often than space objects is the overinflated human ego.

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    @Pink: DS seems to have little concern about sacrificing human lives for science, even if there is a sensible alternative. This makes him an odd choice in the search for MH370, IMO. The human factor is the story here. Is he concerned about the people who lost their lives, or what else is motivating him?

    How can he be so sure of the data he once questioned himself? Tracking lost planes is not what he does for a living. He tracks things coming in from space.

    He certainly doesn’t seem to want to listen to any opinion but his own.

  • Reply ↓
    Pink

    I think he did listen he spelled out what he was doing and said which areas he knew little about he listened to others with more expertise in the areas he knew less about ,he published it all for review as he went along, as to his motivation you will have to ask him I just saw it as a rather organic crowd source that grew from his first play with the data, he can be testy on occasions tis true
    it all did get thrashed out though as they went along to become a IG joint effort not just Duncans view.

  • Reply ↓
    Pink

    My motivation for following MH370 is curiosity as to what happened to it not the human factor I can contribute nothing to finding it and have no connection to anyone on it ,as I think it was most likely a crash for whatever reason the best anyone can do is try and work out where it is and what happened .

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    If it weren’t for the lives lost, would MH370 have the steam to be discussed on a variety of internet forums for more than a year and a half? Let’s say it was a drone, with no lives lost. It might get news coverage initially, then maybe a follow-up article. It’s the lost lives, and prevention of future human tragedy that gets this story noticed, plus, of course, the lurking question of intentional harm in the age of terror.

  • Reply ↓
    Pink

    DS did set out with parameters it was not like JW where they speculate it was doing what they could with the known official data and checking the calculations that were used to define the search or something like that .
    I agree the human factor is uppermost in all this the NOK need to know even so no amount of hand wringing will make it better finding the plane and working out what happened is the best than can come out of this ,I don’t know what DS motivation is perhaps a mixture of things concern for NOK professional curiosity ,I don’t think there is anything sinister plenty of other groups were doing other things TMF for instance and all the other variations and ideas that surround this plane .
    People kept within DS guidelines they took their other ideas elsewhere if they failed to comply they got the boot seems fair to me .
    I have mixed feelings or double standards not sure which applies to the way blogs are run I hate pprune deleting posts I prefer making up my own mind on the other hand on some topics I prefer the focused approach.
    BTW Duncan did have some quite vocal critics Jeff F for one you may have seen it I can’t spell his name I can probably find it though .

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    “The aircraft model was identified as a 275-seat B777-200, a long-range twin jet which operates on longhaul routes for BA, one of the world’s largest operators of the type.”

    Catastrophic engine failure…

  • Reply ↓
    Q

    “Billowing black smoke and orange flames could be seen pouring from under the plane’s wings, sending passengers fleeing quickly from the aircraft and across the tarmac before about 50 firefighters doused the aircraft in minutes.”

    From The Guardian report. Doesn’t this sound like what the oil rig worker reported?

  • Reply ↓
    Pink

    I can’t argue with that I have seen a few books as for the research grants I have no idea .
    I do see so many people doing their very best to find the plane as well in all sorts of ways, the number cruncher’s,Tomnod searchers,Dr Bobby and Krill with their contrail stuff, oceanographers ,Pilots ,Blaine out looking for himself there are people supporting NOK ,people tracking the search ships progress and keeping them informed to name a few and probably lots more I can’t think of right now so we have seen the best of people as well.

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