I had fairly well concluded that the most likely cause was a fire disrupting the electrical and control systems, when CNN now say the sharp left turn was pre-programmed 12 minutes before sign off from Malaysian Air Traffic control, which was followed fairly quickly by that left turn.
CNN claim to have this from an US official, from data sent back before the reporting systems went off. It is hard to know what to make of it: obviously there are large economic interests that much prefer blame to lie with the pilots rather than the aircraft. But if it is true then the move was not a response to an emergency. (CNN went on to say the pilot could have programmed in the course change as a contingency in case of an emergency. That made no sense to me at all – does it to anyone else?)
I still find it extremely unlikely that the plane landed or crashed on land I cannot believe it could evade military detection as it flew over a highly militarized region. Somewhere there is debris on the ocean. There have been previous pilot suicides that took the plane with them; but the long detour first seems very strange and I do not believe is precedented. However if the CNN information on pre-programming is correct, and given it was the co-pilot who signed off to air traffic control, it is hard to look beyond the pilots as those responsible for whatever did happen. In fact, on consideration, the most improbable thing is that information CNN are reporting from the US official.
@Katie
And I missed the “debate”. Wanted to watch it, but was on skype.
But here’s the thing that bothers me re the MAS crash.
The “cost of doing business”.
A fatal air crash with regard compensation will fall within the realms of the Montreal Convention. The pay out by the air carrier for death is “limited” This Limit is a “tally” by accepting “presumed guilt”.
Crash an airliner… you pay out.
Crash an airliner…and the costs of SAR and Recovery are massive, you fold the airline.
That’s what I think.
These costs (to date, without recovery) will be in the multi millions. And you can not ask them to “stop” and merely payout in line with the Montreal Convention.
Exactly James.
This fiasco, lies or not, will encourage hostile nations to have a go & challenge our systems….or could this whole thing be for that reason ?
How long is a piece of string ?
Simply put…
IF this is “pilot suicide/murder”, this guy is not only “crashing” the airliner.
He is “crashing” the state owned (and already suffering) “flag carrier” of Malaysia.
That’s BIG.
Linkages
Both Seals had been linked to sniper teams on the roof of the Lennox hotel (intersection of Boylston and Exeter) during the Boston Marathon explosions.
What a coinky-dinky
http://hamptonroads.com/2013/05/fbi-agents-died-fall-helicopter-va-coast
“Last month, the team was involved in the arrest of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, a suspect in the Boston Marathon bombings. And in February, it rescued a 5-year-old boy held hostage for six days in an underground bunker in Alabama.”
Are you talking about payout for the airline James ?
Remember the passengers are already getting their compensation from the German company Allianz….not sure what that actually covers.
I wonder how compensation works when an airline is already in financial trouble like MAS ?
“This fiasco, lies or not, will encourage hostile nations to have a go & challenge our systems….”
As you say… they will all be “looking” at each other now.
China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and India !
ONE act. He brings down an airliner. A government. A region.
Clever really. I guess he was clever. Mad, but clever.
Katie….
re your post on compensation.
It is all governed by the Montreal Convention.
It’s a “fixed” payment.
Most people don’t know this, but its printed on your ticket !
MAS (and the insurers) will ONLY payout on that.
Are you somehow on the wrong thread Benny ?
Or is it “I type, you post irrelevance” ?
Timbo and Benny. Team “nonse” (You know what a “nonse” is Benny ?).
James, I’ve wondered about that .
After a Virgin flight from Africa, I made a claim for a bag which was damaged onboard.
They had the gall to tell me to claim on my insurance,..I indignantly told them I did not pay travel insurance to save them money…they paid out.
So, if these MAS passengers get paid as per ticket convention, then that is the sum total they will receive ?
I know insurance companies work together so I’m assuming you cannot claim twice IE; from your own travel insurance too ?
Katie
The carrier will always say “claim on your insurance”. It gets them off the hook.
But Baggage (lost, delayed or damaged) and Death, all come under the Montreal Convention (as does cargo).
The basis of this is “presumed guilt in lieu of limited liability”. It “helps” an airline (the correct term is Carrier).
For instance (and it’s “slightly” relevant. If your baggage was lost (completely) you get a fixed payout. However if they acted in a “reckless way, with the intent to cause damage” you can invoke Article 22. para 5, you can sue for “unlimited” (to the cost of what was actually lost) the whole amount. You must however prove (beyond doubt) “with intent to”. That’s the hard bit (see what the Conspiracy guys miss everyday !)
Whereas “death” does not (AFAIK) afford that term. It is a “straight” payout.
Cant recall the amount of hand (it’s in SDR’s) but around 100K GBP.
You see now why Private Aviation works for Billionaires !
It’s not a “luxury”
AND thanks for a sensible conversation amongst the “crap” posted so far.
Oh…. Katie
The reason why the insurers payout.
They cover the “loss” of the aircraft (airframe).
Public Liability (and the Montreal Convention) limit the rest.
So lets say, 200 pax at 100K GBP.
Whereas…. the cost of SAR ? The cost of Recovery ?
10 Million GBP ? 20 Million ? 100 Million ????
Whatever it is, MAS are not insured for that. It’s off the “bottom line”.
Many thanks for that James, I shall C&P just in case I should need such info in future.
To give Virgin their due, once I refused to claim on my insurance they accepted my word & paid up in full without ‘proof’.
What happened was my beautiful leather computer bag got tangled in the seat/bed mechanism because there was absolutely no room for the bag on the floor when extending it ,of course I didn’t realise this until it was too late.
As it was only a 13inch laptop clearly it was not a big bag.
All very paltry though by comparison to loss of life.
Anyway thanks again, midnight here so I’m off to bed. Night night. 🙂
Virgin aren’t such a bad airline.
My friend is a four bar for them (out of Heathrow).
And they “paid up (in the end).
Happy sleeps.
Katie….
“…no room for the bag on the floor when extending it”.
Fly on a Gulfstream, leather flat beds made up after takeoff by a well trained F/A.
And she’ll only wake you five minutes before I land.
The “flying caravan” as we call it !
@Katie
“The Malaysian Parliament was told today that the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) did detect an unidentified aircraft that had turned back but assumed it had done so after being instructed by air traffic control.”
“We detected the ‘turn back’ but did not regard it as hostile and as it was a friendly aircraft, we thought maybe that it had received instructions from the control tower but what we later realised was that the aircraft had disappeared (off the radar) at the Andaman Sea or northern Malacca Strait.”
“For your knowledge, the visibility of our radar is only around 250 nautical miles…”
http://www.airtrafficmanagement.net/2014/03/mh370-rmaf-assumed-aircraft-under-atc-control/
Clearest explanation of Inmarsat and ACARS. Technical but readable.
http://www.airtrafficmanagement.net/2014/03/mh370-satcoms-101/
http://www.airtrafficmanagement.net/2014/03/malaysian-mh370-satcoms-101-part-two/
http://www.airtrafficmanagement.net/2014/03/malaysia-mh370-satcoms-101-part-three/
James wrote, “Timbo and Benny. Team “nonse” (You know what a “nonse” is Benny ?).”
I know how it’s usually spelt, too, and what it means. It’s an acronym. N.O.N.C.E. stands for “Not On Normal Community Exercise”, and is used to refer to prisoners segregated from the upstanding members of their residence.
Katie….
Your story of the Maldives witnesses. Here ya go !
http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54178
It looks like a fire suppression bottle, I give it that. But off what ?
There should be a part number on it. I haven’t heard anything about that.
(My guess….? I still think it is in the Southern Indian Ocean, but what this is…( and it looks like a “fire bottle” from an aircraft) I don’t know.
Will keep (Katie) posted.
Glen…. Ya “google’d” it” !
Anyway… he’s a dick !
It’s astonishing that nobody has employed the Occam’s Razor principle in this entire thread. The most simple explanation is usually the correct one. Also, cui bono?
Look at the facts. An airline from a country nobody has ever heard of, has a plane that supposedly disappears. No trace of this alleged disappeared plane can be found. The press is ecstatic, and images of hysterical relatives are broadcast for weeks.
CNN – a former news outlet now in freefall due to lack of ratings – suddenly has the best upturn in years. Endless speculation from pundits and commentators, none of which needs the slightest substantiation, fills broadcasts for weeks. Acres of newsprint is devoted to completely idle speculation.
The obvious conclusion is that there never was any aircraft to disappear in the first place. The supposed bereaved relatives are all actors – how could they remain so hysterical for so long, if they were not trained professionals? The entire thing was cooked up by the media in order to fill the news-cycle for at least a month, during the boring days before Spring really arrives.
In all the conspiracy theories advanced so far, has anyone even suggested this? Of course they have not – and that, in itself, is all the proof you need. Everything (including God, aliens, terrorists, black holes, suicidal pilots, stealth technologies, patent theft etc. etc.) has been suggested, but not this – the most obvious answer of all.
NR
Great work.
Primary (non commercial radar) would not know Secondary (commercial) radar had not got a contact…..
…although it would look “odd” passing over West (of Malaysia) yet descending (decompression procedure).
Tucked up towards IGREX waypoint (N. Indo) it may not look “odd”.
By the time it has 180’d South (75nm to max 200nm) off Nicobar, he’s gone.
OR…as Katie is pushing (250 odd ppl say they saw it over Male area)
Glen…
seriously ?
“The obvious conclusion is that there never was any aircraft to disappear in the first place”.
Nurse. Another one has gone mad
James. Some of us old timers here still yet retain a sense of humour. Granted, that might be hard for you to believe.
“OR…as Katie is pushing (250 odd ppl say they saw it over Male area)”
By that I mean, it could be there, but I think not.
Just to give respect where respect is due, to a poster that is using logic to put forward a relevant point (and not the mad ramblings that “other” posters seem to put forward).
It’s the “Southern Ocean” V “Maldives sweep stakes” !
Glen….
Then I take what I said back.
Some or the “old timers” must then start to “make a stand” against the “internet cranks” that “because it’s free” and “we can say what the shit we like without knowledge…we’ll god damn say it” !
Will you do that ?
Regarding the earlier comments that Pan Am 103 was destroyed by missiles, there are some who believe that it was, but that the missiles were being carried as illegal cargo and detonated either accidentally or on purpose.
Google “John L Parkes Lockerbie” and “robbie the pict firm Lockerbie needles”
Morning all.
NR , excellent link there, I like the probable & the possible mentions, too many have taken the Inmarsat info as factually correct without argument,but clearly there’s doubt & the doppler effect should be still thought of as approximate ?
Does anyone know the time lapse between the transponder switch off & the first ping ?
Could the plane have been travelling away toward the Maldives/DG rather than along the arc & still be giving the same signal ?
Logically I’d say it could.
Likewise as the article says, the signal can be received even if the plane is on the ground …briefly.
As I’m not good at sums…can someone who is, calculate the timings more accurately,if the plane lost contact around 1am Malaysia time which has 4 hours flying time to DG = arrival 5am roughly.
Unloading, refuelling , say 2 hours, then take off direction Maldives with flying time one hour 30 mins to Maldives take away the 3 hours time difference = sightings around 6 ish.
OR….how about this, the plane stored at Tel Aviv was the plane seen flying over the Maldives EN ROUTE to Diego Garcia,to collect cargo from MH370 ?
It looks a pretty direct flight path Israel , Maldives, DG.
Meanwhile back in Australia a very bad weather has once again halted the search and all ships are returning back to Perth.
“All planes are returning to Perth and ships are leaving search area,” AMSA tweeted.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-27/malaysia-airlines-mh370-bad-weather-halts-search/5349404
No worries Donald, the Americans are about to arrive in their submersibles…………from guess where ?
Diego Garcia.
What better way to do some dumping in the area ?
NR ( quote )
“We detected the ‘turn back’ but did not regard it as hostile and as it was a friendly aircraft, we thought maybe that it had received instructions from the control tower but what we later realised was that the aircraft had disappeared (off the radar) at the Andaman Sea or northern Malacca Strait.”
_________
How can military say “a friendly aircraft” if it had no transponder?
Did they wave white flags from the airplane or did they throw white flyers fron the airplane with the printed text “God loves you” ?
Evrrywhere in the world the military tries to make contact with an unidentified airplane. If the airplane does not respond, then fighter jets are being sent to escort that plane.
What they are saying is BS.
Katie – Submarines? This is getting to be ridiculous, meanwhile the one Australian ship left in the area continues to makes search patterns in an area where they have found nothing and hasn’t even made a move towards where the French said they could see 122 objects