I had fairly well concluded that the most likely cause was a fire disrupting the electrical and control systems, when CNN now say the sharp left turn was pre-programmed 12 minutes before sign off from Malaysian Air Traffic control, which was followed fairly quickly by that left turn.
CNN claim to have this from an US official, from data sent back before the reporting systems went off. It is hard to know what to make of it: obviously there are large economic interests that much prefer blame to lie with the pilots rather than the aircraft. But if it is true then the move was not a response to an emergency. (CNN went on to say the pilot could have programmed in the course change as a contingency in case of an emergency. That made no sense to me at all – does it to anyone else?)
I still find it extremely unlikely that the plane landed or crashed on land I cannot believe it could evade military detection as it flew over a highly militarized region. Somewhere there is debris on the ocean. There have been previous pilot suicides that took the plane with them; but the long detour first seems very strange and I do not believe is precedented. However if the CNN information on pre-programming is correct, and given it was the co-pilot who signed off to air traffic control, it is hard to look beyond the pilots as those responsible for whatever did happen. In fact, on consideration, the most improbable thing is that information CNN are reporting from the US official.
Craig
20 Mar, 2014 – 12:55 am
Thanks for that, I agree with you all you say, whole heartedly.
I heard one EX-islander speaking only yesterday, he was explaining what happened & how he now lives in poverty.
Utterly shameful ,particularly with all the PC hypocrisy we have to obey nowadays .
So I hear a large piece of debris has shown up off the Australian coast this morning, we all wait with bated breath …………………
“You just buy the pilots off. Offer them a big annual income for the rest of their lives if they do what they’re told on one occasion, disappear to a new place with a new identity and keep their mouths shut.”
I would add to what I said earlier that as far as I can remember it was reported that the older pilot’s family had moved out of the family home a few days before the incident, which would support this, they were moving to their new location to start their new life.
So an experienced pilot forgot to ‘aviate,navigate & communicate’.
Today is day13,the day after an embarrassing handling of a mothers grief by the Malaysians yesterday.
Apparently the Aussies have known about this debris for days,since Monday ……… but have only today scrambled the jets, what were they waiting for ?
Mocyn69
I’d be very wary of what an “expert involved in the Lockerbie investigation” has got to say.
Firstly I am not convinced that the baggage “remained” onboard” the 747, but was placed onboard when the 747 landed at Heathrow. And from that, I doubt Libyan involvement in the Lockerbie bombing at all.
Anyway….lets see what Australia turns up when it gets “eyes on” this debris that has been seen by satellite.
This seems “unusual” IF the aircraft was “flying at low level”.
The fuel burn rate of an aircraft flying at low level is massively increased and compared to an aircraft flying at cruise altitude, the distanced travelled is therefore significantly reduced.
Lets wait and see.
Missing Plane: ‘Objects May Be MH370 Debris’
Two large objects spotted in the south Indian Ocean could be debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, authorities say.
http://news.sky.com/story/1228904/missing-plane-objects-may-be-mh370-debris
I hope this latest news is not about Abbott wanting some publicity.
If this is true then the australian defense will have to explane about why the money of the australian taxpayer had been wasted. That would stink enormously ….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network
Quote
The JORN is so sensitive it is able to track planes as small as a Cessna 172 taking off and landing in East Timor 2600 km away.
We all sound [justifiably] sceptical about this find.
As strong as the wings will be on a 777, I’m wondering how a 24 metre object can stand the impact of hitting the sea & not break in two ?
I repeat:
Quote
The JORN is so sensitive it is able to track planes as small as a Cessna 172 taking off and landing in East Timor 2600 km away.
They are searching in an area just 2230 km away from their west coast.
What is that telling us?
Was the australian RFAA on March-vacation, too, just like their malaysian and their indonesian airforce buddies?
Apparently the Aussies have known about this debris for days,since Monday ……… but have only today scrambled the jets, what were they waiting for ?
Better pictures, perhaps. See-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2584816/Search-area-missing-jet-dramatically-narrowed-US-officials-hone-satellite-signals-engine.html
Bit surprised that US and Russian military surveillance spaceware hasn’t come up with anything – but again, perhaps it has.
@Katie
I tried to find info on the Flight Data Recorder, and other emergency locaters. Like everything else, it’s throughly confusing with various models and changes over the years. Couldn’t determine what’s fitted on a 777.
The relevant part is the pinger, which is external to the FDR and Cockpit Voice Recorder, collectively called Accident Data Recorders, and some new designs combine both functions in the same box. Lockheed has a patent on one that deploys when the plane hits water and has a flotation device. Don’t know if these are in use.
Specs on the pinger: Maximum detection range
A 37.5kHz (160.5dB re 1μPa) pinger can be detectable 1-2km from the surface in normal conditions and 4-5km in good conditions. A 37.5kHz (180dB re 1μPa) transponder pinger can be detected 4-5km n normal conditions and 6-7km in good conditions. Transponder 10kHz (180dB re 1μPa) range is 7-9km in normal condition and 17-22km in good conditions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_locator_beacon
So there are several types with two loudnesses and two frequencies. One expert on TV claimed a range of 5-10 miles and if the plane was deep you’d need to be above it to find it. Another expert said detection was difficult at depth, depending on marine thermal layers and underwater terrain — valleys and mountains. A third expert, who participated in recovery of the Air France 447 crash said that after finding the wreck two years after the accident with submersibles, they reviewed original search efforts and found they were directly above without detecting pings.
Aircraft also have Emergency Locater Transmitters (1 or 2?) on the top surface of the plane, that transmit to satellite. I though these detached automatically when the plane hits water. Apparently they do not. Interestingly a 787 had a fire in the space above the cabin ceiling set off by lithium batteries in the ELT.
For crashes at sea the ELTs are on each life raft and are activated by salt water. The emergency slides also serve as life rafts. For an emergency landing on land, survivors are told to find a life raft and pee on the ELT to provide salt water to activate it. I did not know that.
Yes BB, I understand what you’re getting at, did you know ‘coincidently’ an American ship is in the area of this debris too ?
I missed what it was, but I suspect it will be the US Navy !
Forget this “find”. It is rubbish, and found south of Austarlia. What the hell where the plane doing there. En route to the Antarctic maybe?
NR.
Thanks for that, all very interesting.
It does make sense for a black box to have a liferaft/airbag to inflate on impact,just like the one we used to carry on our own boat, add that to an automated satellite alarm sent to computers & what a lot of time & possibly lives it would saved.
So how come both AF & this one seem to have neither ?
I shall remember the tip about urinating on an ELT should the need ever arise. 😉
Just a strange coincidence, but the 1985 US hijacking of a civilian passenger airplane had been organised by “Robert Bubba Brodsky”.
Nikolai Brodsky was on board of MH370 ….
Not for the first time in history the US would have hijacked a civilian passenger airplane:
http://theaviationist.com/2012/10/10/achille-lauro/
In the night between Oct. 10 and 11, 1985 a scarcely known mission took place in the skies above the Mediterranean Sea.That night, several combat planes belonging to the Carrier Air Wing 17 (CVW-17) lauched from USS Saratoga (CV-60) to intercept the Egyptair Boeing 737 which was carrying the terrorists who had hijacked the Achille Lauro liner off Egypt.On October 7, 1985, four PLF militants men had hijacked the cruise ship. Holding the passengers and crew hostage, they directed the vessel to sail to Tartus, Syria, and demanded the release of 50 Palestinians then in Israeli prisons.After two days of negotiations (and the killing ofLeon Klinghoffer, a Jewish retired businessman who was in a wheelchair) the terrorists agreed to abandon the ship in exchange for safe conduct and were flown towards Tunisia aboard an Egyptian commercial airliner.On Oct. 10, while the Boeing 737 was taking off from Cairo, the “Super Sara” catapulted four F-14A (two belonging to VF-74 Be-Devilers and two belonging to VF-103 Sluggers), one E-2C (belonging to VAW-125 Tiger Tails), two KA-6D (belonging to VA-85 Black Falcons) and one EA-6B (belonging to VAQ-137 Rooks) that had the task to intercep the airliner which transported the Achille Lauro hijackers.Another E-2C, three more F-14s and two electronic intelligence aircrafts (one EA-3B and one RC-135) took part in the mission planned by the CAG (Commander Air Group) of the CVW-17, Robert “Bubba” Brodzky.The mission was planned to be a night, lights out interception. The F-14s were vectored to the Boeing 737 by the E-2C and one VF-103’s Tomcat, exactly the BuNo 160904 side number 205, approaching the 737 from rear and below, was able to made the positive identification getting very close to airliner (about fifteen feet!!) to read its registration.The E-2C vectored five more Tomcats (even though some sources say that there were only three) to join the lights out formation just above the island of Crete. From that moment on, each communication with the Egyptian Boeing was done by the E-2C which used a VHF frequency to transmit the order to divert to Sigonella, in Italy.Only when the liner refused to comply with the order to divert, the E-2C ordered “LIGHTS ON, NOW!” that lit up all the F-14s surrounding the Boeing 737. The Hawkeye told to airliner crew that in one way or another they had to reach Sigonella and the 737 had to proceed to the airbase in Sicily.Once on the ground, the Tomcats closed the airspace overhead for all incoming aircraft, except two USAF C-141 cargos which were carrying Navy SEALs team. As the American forces surrounded the Boeing , they were surrounded by the Italian military security (belonging to the Air Force and Carabinieri – the Military Police) forces that claimed Italian territorial rights over the base.The diplomatic crisis was resolved after five hours of negotiations. The hijackers were left to the Italians that had to bring them to Rome with a special flight whereas the other passengers on the plane (including the hijackers’ leader, Muhammad Zaidan) were allowed to continue on to their destination, despite protests by the United States.At around 22.00 local time, on Oct. 11, the Egyptair B737 took off from Sigonella to Rome Ciampino airport. The special flight got a special escort by two F-104S Starfighter of the 36° Stormo (Wing) from Gioia del Colle, later joined by two additional F-104s from Grazzanise airbase.The 737 with its escort flight were later joined by some unknown aircraft, most probably U.S. F-14s, that approached the F-104s from behind. Although what happened next has never been fully disclosed, a sort of dogfight is believed to have taken place in the Tyrrhenian Sea while an EA-6B was jamming Italian radars.As the formation approached Rome, the USN fighters turned back.Even thought the events influenced the US-Italian diplomatic relations very negatively for quite some time, most probably, the night intercept was, until then, the most complex aerial anti-terrorist mission ever planned.The Be-Devilers of VF-74 were disbanded on 28 april 1994 after they spent their last days as Adversary Squadron simulating aircrafts as MiG-29, MiG-31 and SU-27. Instead in the 1995 the Sluggers of VF-103 taking the skull and bones left by the disbanded VF-84 and changed their name into Jolly Rogers.Dario Leone for The Aviationist.com(image)Image credit: U.S. Navy
http://aangirfan.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/malaysian-airlines-mh370-stolen.html
“Australian security expert Neil Fergus says that if the two objects found ARE from flight MH370, it must have been flown there deliberately”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airline-plane-latest-3263302#ixzz2wUw4wQga
Now there’s a sharp fella. I thought it was en route to Antarctica on its own
Looks like this second thread on the Malaysia crash will end up like the second one on the unsolved Lake Annecy murders – nowhere.
In 1985 (read the Egypt air hijacking by the US army), the pilot’s conversation and all radar contact with Egypt Air had been jammed by US military planes so that Egypt air had no way to communicate. Even the italian radar had been jammed.
If the pilot of egypt air wouldnt have followed their instructions then they would have shot him down.
I remember the “mumbling” heard by the JAL pilot in case of MH370.
That could have been a result of jamming. Also the transponder and the malaysian radar might have been jammed. Perhaps nobody turned off the transponder. Perhaps they trird totalk to aircontrol. Perhaps they tried to send mayday.
Everything had been jammed.
Perhaps then the pilot tried to show them that he was in trouble by climbing into an invalid height. Unfortunately they couldnt see this unsual flight maneuvre at air control screens as he got jammed.
That is my theory.
They had done that already at least once before. We have proof.
Any opinions?
If the debris is confirmed as that of the missing plane (my guess is that it will be) then I’ll be interested to see what narrative we are given. If we are told that the pilot simply flew the plane to that location and crashed it then the mystery deepens. That’s because it doesn’t explain the ringing cell-phones, which must have been on land and within range of a base station.
The debris was not picked up by Australian satellites until last Sunday, over a week after the disappearance. That gives plenty of time for the plane to be hijacked, flown to Diego Garcia, personnel and cargo removed and the plane then flown remotely to current location and ditched, maybe with the dead bodies on board. Just a thought.
Marlin, I don’t know what you think, but I’m wondering if we haven’t got shades of Chevaline “counter intelligence” here? Is it possible the British essentially “have put the spoke in” an Americano/Israel plan? I know it sounds a bit far-fetched so what do I base it on?
Well really just circumstantially on the way the “story” had to change with staged revelations. I’m suggesting that when the initial story that the plane had probably ditched as it approached Vietnam based on loss of communication and radar, the fact that it had turned West must already have been known not only from this but from the “military” radar as well. Malaysia Airlines reported the disappearance nearly five hours later, an hour after the plane was due to land in Beijing.
Everyone has assumed this was Malaysian military radar but if so why wasn’t it included in the early announcements. It could have been from foreign owned military radar information brought in subsequently to defeat the initial story line.
Then the real reason I got going on this tack was the statement in a Times story at least (other outlets may have said the same) that the satellite that really put a nail in the crash hypothesis, with the news that a full seven plus hours after the disappearance (initially “5 hrs”) it was still registering a “ping” from the plane, was British owned “Inmarsat”.
” Inmarsat plc is the leading provider of global mobile satellite communications services. Since 1979, Inmarsat has been providing reliable voice and high-speed data communications to governments, enterprises and other organizations, with a range of services that can be used on land, at sea or in the air. Inmarsat employs around 1,600 staff in more than 60 locations around the world, with a presence in the major ports and centres of commerce on every continent. Inmarsat is listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE:ISAT.L).” http://www.inmarsat.com/news/inmarsat-statement-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370/
“As well as merchant shipping, our customers include governments, airlines, the broadcast media, the oil and gas industry, mining, construction, and humanitarian aid agencies – to name just a few.
They connect to our fleet of 10 satellites using a range of equipment, including global handheld satellite phones and notebook-size broadband internet devices, as well as specialist terminals and antennas fitted to ships, aircraft and road vehicles.”
It has four generations of satellite, the first a BAE collaboration; the second with Lookheed Martin/Marconi; not sure about the third though it is “European”; the fourth seems to have been built by Boeing.
Incidentally: “20 March 2014
Retired United States Air Force General to join Inmarsat Board
General C. Robert Kehler will bring huge breadth of knowledge to non-executive director role.”
“It has not stated which satellites were involved. Inmarsat operates about 10 geostationary satellites through which it handles satcom datalink transmissions including those from the aeronautical sector.” http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/inmarsat-confirms-automated-signals-from-mh370-397034/
“Metro” had this a day ago: “The last ‘ping’ signal from the aircraft was detected by a satellite in an area near a US naval base on Diego Garcia and Maldives.
HaveeruOnline has also quoted a local aviation expert as saying the plane spotted above Maldives is ‘likely’ to be missing MH370 as instances of any aircraft flying over the island at the reported time was rare.
A total of 26 countries are helping to search for the missing plane – but Maldives is not one of them.” http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/18/flight-mh370-residents-on-remote-island-in-maldives-saw-jet-matching-missing-malaysia-airlines-planes-description-4640688/
So it would appear that although very little specific information has been made available to the public, it was British owned Inmarsat with undoubted very strong links to British military and intelligence, that let it be known that crucially the plane had not ditched at least five hours after it had been supposed to.
If the plan was to “disappear” the plane in a faked sea crash, it appears to have been a British company that ruined it!
Just to add a point to “Malaysia Airlines reported the disappearance nearly five hours later, an hour after the plane was due to land in Beijing.” “or somewhere else!”
In other words that time delay rather co-incidentally corresponds to Inmarsat confirmation that it was still “pinging” and the time it could have landed elsewhere (Diego Garcia seems to be a favourite) before intensive search was initiated.
There must be satellite images available to nation states (incidentally China it is said now have 21 tasked!) of those runways and what’s on ’em.
One final point: of the 18 ships said to be deployed in the search only one US vessel apparently and similarly negligible numbers of US aircraft despite having massive 7th fleet somewhere in the vicinity. Isn’t this rather strange given the fact that the US is on a charm offensive in the region?
Wall Street Journal
Critical Data Was Delayed in Flight Search
Four days went by before officials acted on satellite data showing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 flew for several hours away from the area being covered by a massive international search—a delay from which investigators are still working to recover.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/q8r5x5l
There is a report that before the doomed flight, MH370 delivered “radar equipment” to Kuala Lumpur! Does anyone know what the plane was doing, countries/cargoes etc prior to the missing flight. Have the authorities ever released details of the cargo manifest on its way to Beijing? We know there were personnel on board the US might not have wanted to get there but how about the cargo bay also?
I agree that it’s a bit unlikely the US would intentionally crash the plane but it might hi-jack it to prevent vital stuff getting into the hands of an enemy. It was very good at hi-jacking people. It’s not something it could readily admit to however. Would allies or enemies blow the gaff? If undertaken it’s a very desperate and high risk strategy to adopt, especially in the age of the uncontrollable internet.
Shades of 9/11?
Ben
19 Mar, 2014 – 5:00 pm
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FSL#symbol=FSL;range=6m
“Just follow the money”?
As respects share price of Freescale Semi Conductor Ltd that in three months to March 2014 increased over 60%, is the fact that despite loosing twenty of its expert staff bound for China, the share price hasn’t, it would appear, fallen back as one might have expected. Why is that now I’m wondering. MH370 can’t be considered a serious set back at least.
@Tim V
20 Mar, 2014 – 2:02 pm
This for the Telegraph:
“11.25 The satellite pictures were taken four days ago, according to the date stamp on them, but there was still confusion from the Malaysian authorities this morning about when exactly they were taken.”
So now we’ve also got date-stamped photos, but confusion about when they were actually taken!
FFS everybody .. make sure your date stamps are correct! I’m gonna check my devices now!
Sorry, forgot the reference:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10710250/Malaysian-Airlines-MH370-live.html
Katie
20 Mar, 2014 – 7:48 am the latest I read is that the dicovery of item of debris SW of Perth was discovered SUNDAY but only annouced todays briefing. The Minister apparently had to be corrected when he stated it had been discovered today. I agree with your observation: if so important why effectively four day delay in making public?
Mary
20 Mar, 2014 – 8:09 am if the debris really is from MH370 and not just planted, there is no logical reason for it being there. It is en route to where? The South Pole? No terrorist group has claimed responsibility so only auto pilot on crazy course till plane ran out of fuel or maniac pilot on crazy suicide trip would make any sort of sense for it being there. Hi jacking or intentionally a plane and its many occupants is unlikely without a gesture or motivation, and here we have none. Not to mention what over two hundred passengers were doing all the time. Did they think they were still on their way to Beijing, had they all been rendered unconscious/dead by the climb to 45k and a depressurised cabin or rendered compliant some other way without weapons rather like the Shanksville plane claimed to be again? Israel and US introduced air marshalls on their aircraft (in the case of US famously withdrawn to save cash immediately prior to 9/11). Are they still employed? Does MAS have them? All rather tangential I agree.