I had fairly well concluded that the most likely cause was a fire disrupting the electrical and control systems, when CNN now say the sharp left turn was pre-programmed 12 minutes before sign off from Malaysian Air Traffic control, which was followed fairly quickly by that left turn.
CNN claim to have this from an US official, from data sent back before the reporting systems went off. It is hard to know what to make of it: obviously there are large economic interests that much prefer blame to lie with the pilots rather than the aircraft. But if it is true then the move was not a response to an emergency. (CNN went on to say the pilot could have programmed in the course change as a contingency in case of an emergency. That made no sense to me at all – does it to anyone else?)
I still find it extremely unlikely that the plane landed or crashed on land I cannot believe it could evade military detection as it flew over a highly militarized region. Somewhere there is debris on the ocean. There have been previous pilot suicides that took the plane with them; but the long detour first seems very strange and I do not believe is precedented. However if the CNN information on pre-programming is correct, and given it was the co-pilot who signed off to air traffic control, it is hard to look beyond the pilots as those responsible for whatever did happen. In fact, on consideration, the most improbable thing is that information CNN are reporting from the US official.
@James 3:49 pm: Is it sabotage when an airline or its MRO decides to use unauthorized parts to save money, or maybe chooses deeply-discounted counterfeit parts knowingly?
What kind of plane is it?
This one?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/another-malaysia-airlines-plane-forced-to-abort-flight-due-to-technical-problems-9280542.html
Or this one:
http://news.abnxcess.com/2014/04/firefly-fy1002mh9948-turn-back-due-to-faulty-landing-gear/
NR’s man has it covered:
http://weechookeong.com/2014/04/24/now-everyone-want-suspension-of-azhari-after-air-turn-back-of-firefly/
Firefly gets work done here, too:
http://www.hyderabad.aero/mro.aspx
Q.
At this point in time I haven’t a clue what to think.
Coming up to 50 days and….nothing.
No debris floating anywhere. No sonar hit underwater.
Lets say something “failed”. Then the aircraft would at some point/eventually crash. There would be wreckage.
The choices are. A. It is there. B. It is somewhere else
Not the best remit for a Search and Rescue effort.
Check out the customers of MAE’s MRO:
http://asiaprnews.com/2009/02/27/33714
“MD of MAE, Mr. Mohd Roslan Ismail added, “MAE has over 36 years of experience
in the MRO business. We are certified by 31 National Aviation Authorities and
have 80 customers including Lufthansa, Saudi Arabian Airlines, Jet Airways,
Qantas, Austrian Airlines, AWAS, RBS and GECAS, one of the world’s largest
fleet owners and lessors.”
Calling all airlines who use MAE for maintenance: have your planes rechecked by the manufacturer. Hint: landing gear, brakes, tires, generators, anything else they’ve worked on. Spare no expense, it’s cheaper than lawsuits.
…..not even a floating year old defrosted Mangosteen !
Two things seem to be important to Malaysia:
1. That the black box is never found.
2. If the black box is found, it should be handed over to the government of Malaysia, preferably on a silver platter. Do not open the box.
http://www.world-check.com/sites/default/files/white-pappers/L-373189_US_Counterfeit_Aircraft_Avionic_Parts_WhitePaper.pdf
Now “HE” is a big hitter.
CNN has trotted out Sarah again. Knowing there’s an issue of who approved what to fly, follow the money, as they say. Seems a little pointless to try to squeeze mangosteen juice from a year-old, defrosted mangosteen, or money from a nearly-bankrupt airline, or morally-bankrupt nation, so:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/24/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/
There may be a shortage of mangosteens in March, but there is never a shortage of lawsuits.
Of course juice can be squeezed from defrosted mangosteens, but not after they’ve been immersed in sea water for weeks.
Thank you very much for the article by REAR ADMIRAL CHRIS PARRY CBE, James. Note the word “deliberate” and the distinction between counterfeit parts and unapproved parts. This is timely.
Q
Those parts have to be made somewhere !
“A delegation including representatives of the Transport Division of MIDA, Composite Technology Resource Malaysia (CTRM) and MIGHT was sent to Austria, Germany and France to promote Malaysia as a preferred investment location for aerospace manufacturing and MRO”.
http://www.asianaviation.com/articles/55/Malaysia-expands-aerospace-capabilities
China as one of the largest manufacturing nations makes many thing “under licence”.
That goes for aircraft components also.
The “ooky” stuff also has to be made somewhere.
And I guess it’ll be quite a sophisticated operation.
I guess an element of the operation would also involve “shipping”.
You wouldn’t receive the component from a country that it wasn’t made in.
A dodgy piece of kit made in Malaysia, shipped to China….
….and then sold as the original ?
“It is clear that the trade in counterfeit aviation and avionics parts represents both direct and indirect risks. In addition to potentially fatal equipment failures, the cycling of legitimate parts for refurbishment and upgrade with
uncertified suppliers, especially through complex subcontractual and out-sourced
operations, can lead to the insertion of identification, tracking or disabling devices, as well as malware and other malicious software.
“For example, hundreds of counterfeit digital data routers made in China and recently sold to the U.S. military were falsely labelled as having been made by the original equipment manufacturer. Similar systems have been associated with the failure of mission-critical networks and have contained hidden “back doors” enabling network security to be bypassed and sensitive data accessed. Fifth-generation military aircraft and advanced commercial jets depend far more than their predecessors on sophisticated, microprocessed technologies.
“Consequently, high technology microchips and their associated assemblies are extremely tempting targets for the world’s most adept, often state-sponsored, hackers.”
From: http://www.world-check.com/sites/default/files/white-pappers/L-373189_US_Counterfeit_Aircraft_Avionic_Parts_WhitePaper.pdf
So, semiconductors and microprocessors could be one of the biggest risks in the counterfeit parts enterprise.
Q
A thing about “air cargo”.
Mainly goods transported are “perishable” or “high value”.
So fruit and flowers etc. Computer chips and alike. Pharmaceuticals.
We don’t know what was on 9M-MRO.
Defrosted Fruit and high tech batteries. That’s all we’ve been told.
And “pharmaceuticals” in maroon suitcases?
http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/contrail.shtml
Interesting…. but I’m not convinced.
Military primary radar from Indonesia (?).
No JORN from Australia
Satellite “handshakes” (their Share Price has climbed since !)
A few “blackbox” pings.
Now contrails….that are a bit unconvincing (even the author is not convinced).
Nothing “concrete” then.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid2513628634001?bckey=AQ~~%2cAAACKW9LH8k~%2cA7HfECo5t7DrAeaToOVr5sEdpPjJEcCi&bclid=0&bctid=3401163961001
Worth a laugh. He forgets “brakes off” on take off ! Some jockey he isn’t.
Meanwhile, on a remote island:
https://vanuatudaily.wordpress.com/2013/01/21/saken-brothers-known-for-drugs-arms-trade-interpol-png-post-courier/
https://vanuatudaily.wordpress.com/2013/01/17/vanuatu-daily-news-digest-17-january-2013/#more-1240
http://www.pina.com.fj/?p=pacnews&m=read&o=106538530750ff4b3312d9cfbbe70d
https://flightaware.com/photos/aircraft/N111VM
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N111VM
http://discussions.flightaware.com/viewtopic.php?p=113515
Those plane spotters are everywhere.
http://www.airnavsystems.com/forum/index.php?topic=5404.450
“N111VM – B737 BBJ – very little info on this – one of the smartest liveries out there, but one source says that the operator is the Chinese CITIC group – so I’ve done that.”
And they’re dedicated to their hobby.
Rather convoluted, but here goes. From the rumor here about CITIC Group:
http://discussions.flightaware.com/viewtopic.php?p=113515
To:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/blackstone-leads-latest-chinese-privatization-bid/
http://www.pehub.com/2010/03/citic-capital-to-expand-aborad-after-cic-injection/
“Lou Jiwei, head of CIC, told an industry forum in Hong Kong in January that the sovereign fund, established in late 2007, wanted to do more deals in Asia, including Japan, than the United States, where it lost bets on Wall Street firms, such as Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Blackstone Group (BX.N)”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CITIC_Group
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackstone_Group
“On September 15, 2006, Freescale agreed to a $17.6 billion buyout by a consortium led by Blackstone Group and its co-investors, Carlyle Group, TPG Capital, and Permira. The buyout offer was accepted on November 13, 2006 following a vote by company shareholders. The purchase, which closed on December 1, 2006, was the largest private buyout of a technology company until the Dell buyout of 2013 and is one of the ten largest buyouts of all time.
Freescale filed to go public on February 11, 2011 and completed its IPO on May 26, 2011. Freescale is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol FSL. At the time of the IPO, the company had $7.6 billion in outstanding debt on its books, and the company is being investigated for misconduct related to this IPO.”
So, then, no love lost between CITIC and Blackstone (Freescale). They’re in direct competition now. CITIC also invests heavily in pharma — ironic, considering the allegations of who owns the plane that transported the Saken brothers.
Freescale also had a fabrication plant in Sendai, which closed after the earthquake in 2011. It produced 8-bit microcontrollers, analog parts and sensors such as pressure sensors. It had been outsourcing this product for its clients.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/freescale-won-t-reopen-chip-plant-in-japan-that-was-damaged-by-earthquake.html
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1259159
http://edageek.com/2007/11/14/freescale-s08d-mcu/
“Embedded EEPROM enhances system design flexibility by enabling data to be written and erased with ease and eliminates the need for external serial EEPROM. Integrated development tools with on-chip debug enable designers to debug quickly in real-time resulting in fast time to market. Each of these integrated capabilities is available across the full automotive temperature range of -40 degrees C to 125 degrees C.
Prime industrial control applications include factory and building automation, security systems, medical monitoring equipment, and aircraft and aerospace electronics.”
That’s a beauty !
BBJ. That’s “Boeing Business Jet”.
It’s basically the “big one” of what I fly.
A GV (Gulfstream) is like a flying caravan. Elegant, beautiful….but small.
A “BBJ” has everything. Spec it as you want it. Bedrooms, shower. Dining area.
They are for “serious” money.
The only thing that is “better” is the 747’s that float about in the sandpit.
Or John Travolta’s vintage beauty !
That’s what oil buys !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKxXLUyxWMQ
Remember in the early stages of this story when the media said the plane might have travelled as far away as Kazakhstan?
http://www.ihs.com/News/WW-News/news-2006/NationsEnergySellsCITIC.htm
What do you know: CITIC is involved in oil there.
On it goes. Where it stops, nobody knows.
http://www.swfinstitute.org/swf-news/qatar-holding-invests-in-22-22-stake-in-citic-capital-holdings-limited/
Another shift in the Malaysian governments story !
‘Military radar in Malaysia did track an unidentified aircraft as it flew across the country’s airspace after MH370 lost contact with ground control, it was revealed today.’
‘Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak said the military’s radar tracked what is believed to have been the Malaysian Airlines plane after it had turned back while on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8.
‘The military radar, the primary radar, has some capability,’ Mr Najib said.
‘It tracked an aircraft which did a turn back but they were not sure, exactly sure, whether it was MH370.
‘What they were sure of was that the aircraft was not deemed to be hostile.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2612487/Report-missing-jet-MH370-released-week-Malaysian-PM-makes-surprise-announcement-relatives-cling-hope-not-destroyed.html#ixzz2zsVV88MP
He also said this;
‘To be honest, I found it hard to believe,’ said the Prime Minister.’
I’d wager, ‘honesty’ is not something this man is familiar with.
Breaking…….;-)
Attempted hijacking near Indonesia.
Virgin plane now landed in Bali…..could there be any connection ?
Katie
How could they know that the plane wasnt hostile? Particularly after 9/11 you cannot be sure. Did the passengers wink with white kleenex?
Where was the Malaysian airforce.
I find it hard to believe that after 9/11 an unidentified airplane without transponder and without audio connection with flight control would be labelled as “not hostile”. Why? Why didnt he give a reason for his statement?
everywhere in the world it is standard that in such a case airforce will be deployed to meet and escort the plane. That is routine and happens almost everyday somewhere in the world. Even if that unidentified and silent plane is just a small cessna.
I just dont understand that “not hostile” unless the military had been briefed in advance and they knew about what would happen next.