I had fairly well concluded that the most likely cause was a fire disrupting the electrical and control systems, when CNN now say the sharp left turn was pre-programmed 12 minutes before sign off from Malaysian Air Traffic control, which was followed fairly quickly by that left turn.
CNN claim to have this from an US official, from data sent back before the reporting systems went off. It is hard to know what to make of it: obviously there are large economic interests that much prefer blame to lie with the pilots rather than the aircraft. But if it is true then the move was not a response to an emergency. (CNN went on to say the pilot could have programmed in the course change as a contingency in case of an emergency. That made no sense to me at all – does it to anyone else?)
I still find it extremely unlikely that the plane landed or crashed on land I cannot believe it could evade military detection as it flew over a highly militarized region. Somewhere there is debris on the ocean. There have been previous pilot suicides that took the plane with them; but the long detour first seems very strange and I do not believe is precedented. However if the CNN information on pre-programming is correct, and given it was the co-pilot who signed off to air traffic control, it is hard to look beyond the pilots as those responsible for whatever did happen. In fact, on consideration, the most improbable thing is that information CNN are reporting from the US official.
There are lithium ion batteries and “lithium air” batteries. What happens when these batteries interact with the ethylene gases used to ripen “fresh” fruit in a confined space?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-21/lithium-air-battery-gives-ibm-hope-of-power-without-fires.html
http://postharvest.tfrec.wsu.edu/pages/PC2000F
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethylene
Hi James.
I see something strange, just 2 phone calls (voice) but no traces ot sms/text !!
As ATC uses sms/text to communicate with flights, its very strange that there are no traces of any attempts to send messages to MH370, there are only 2 voice calls (with no answer) recorded. I assume a flight that just disappears and makes strange routes on radar, would make ATC to do several contacts attempt-but there is just 2 voice calls and ATC uses text to my knowledge- so there is no contact attempts from ATC as I see it. When the plane diverts after “good-night”, it is said that it took 3 hrs before the alarm went on, so the 1st call that came in shortly after the divert does not match ATC in the timeline.
The released log seems to confirm that there was 2 Satcoms in operation with 2 subscriptions, 1 for Rolls Roys for monitoring jet-enigne, the other one for MAS, and the log that we are looking at is RR:s, that would explain this log except the calls, as they should have been made on the other number. my old suspicion that inmarsat is hiding the 2nd satcom log seems to be confirmed by this log.
Also, there is a gap in handshake, if you go back to the latest handshake before the gap and look at the map, it´s is possible that the plane could have made a last divert and set course in a line to christmas islands (MAS is trafficking this island), and it it slowed down or made circles, then a unknown course to east would also match the inmarsat arcs. The mysterious gap has not been given a good explanation so it is possible that if some one was messing around in de-bay, this could have caused that gap in handshakes.
Duqu
Firstly, the Malaysians acted very strange from “the minute” after the a/c transponder signal went off. With virtually everything they did.
The second call to the a/c is exceptional in its strangeness.
I mean why would they do that ! Hours after the incident….they call the crew to see if they say “Surprise….!”.
If we were to list “what the Malaysians did wrong” we’d be here all day.
Although I do like the fact that STILL the Minister For Chaos, Defence and Transport refuses to say if the “civil ATC” contacted “military ATC”.
The two departments are in the same building !!!!
Third. I understand that the log we are seeing is the INMARSAT satellite log.
As in, the log of the connections between MH370 and the satellite.
The gap in this log (timings) is due to the fact that the “pack” resets itself. The default time of that “no contact” link is approx 60 minutes. So when the call SAT PHONE was used, the reset goes to “whatever that time was” and then runs for approx 60 minutes. Hence the 20.41, 21.41, 22.41 handshakes. The 00.10 handshake comes after a reset and count down from the 23.13 failed phone contact.
If you want to look at something “odd” in the handshakes, a thing to look at is “that last attempted phone call”. It’s most unusual. Why make it at all.
And then consider this….
No one new that there would be a “partial handshake”. So lets remove that for the moment…but lets assume that this was the point of fuel starvation….and crash shortly after. The time is 00.19 (approx).
The system “count down timer” begins it’s count down after the last activity. That was the failed phone call at 23.13. The next activity will come in approx an hours time (which it did). If that phone call was made slightly later….OR if the aircraft had burnt “slightly” more fuel (AND there was no “last partial handshake) then the aircraft would have gone down…..without any chance of “defining” the last arc !
….and that ONE ACT would have made the task of locating the aircraft go from impossible to COMPLETELY and TOTALLY impossible.
(If you think it is now, then imagine adding an hour of flight time onto the current “guess work” !)
So was that “last phone call” a deliberate act ?
ONE THING is sure. It’s a VERY UNUSUAL thing to have done (at that time).
Duqu
To put my above comment into perspective. We are talking SIX minutes.
And then the last activity would be “23.13” ….and after that nothing else.
Was someone “deliberately” making absolutely sure there would be no recovery of this aircraft. Ever. Makes you think.
Well, James and Duqu, there’s an explanation for everything:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10933917/MH370-New-evidence-of-cockpit-tampering-as-investigation-into-missing-plane-continues.html
More spin from the spinmeisters. It was a mysterious power outage, kind of like the mysterious power outage that took down all ATC operations at Subang Airport for a couple of hours in September 2012. They must have a lot of octopus extension cords at Subang ATC and on the flight decks of Boeing 777s in those parts, and someone keeps tripping on them all.
Seriously, this is the best explanation they could find, a recycled and slightly modified one?
Well then ! This is just getting “plane” silly ! (See what I did there !)
We’ll call this the “Duqu Gap”.
The “News” says this was 90 minutes into the flight
Aircraft takes off at 16.41
Plus 90 minutes is 18.11
Is that what they are now saying ?
There’s a log on request at 18.25 (on the log)
Is that what they mean.
The first “handshake” comes at 19.41. The “in activity” counter would start an hour approx previous to that (18.41).
They’re pissing about with the bloody data.
Log attached below
http://www.dca.gov.my/mainpage/MH370%20Data%20Communication%20Logs.pdf
If someone said “it was shot down as it cornered Indonesia” I wouldn’t be shocked !
(or even earlier) !
Well, with the new info above, I´m back to my first suspicion, the crime scene is down under in EE-bay compartment.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10933917/MH370-New-evidence-of-cockpit-tampering-as-investigation-into-missing-plane-continues.html
Or maybe they just realized that they been watching the wrong Satcom subscription….ooops
This in an interesting thread you need to read it all.
http://www.reddit.com/r/MH370/comments/297ncs/us_warnings_on_boeing_safety_applied_to_missing/
Pictures
https://plus.google.com/+JonathanLangdale/posts/aTx6wnw1gJX
First I thought it was pilot suicide/mass murder. Maybe it was.
But just not sure anymore. Too much “funny stuff” going on.
EE bay accessed. Maybe. It is possible. But not a great plan.
Whoever appears top have been killed in the crash.
A hull failure like what Pink points out. Maybe.
Clearly there are is an A/D on this.
The latest “news” is strange.
Way after the transponder is “disabled”…. comes the “first” in flight INMARSAT log on ? MH370 goes off the screen 40 minutes into the flight. And they say that “50 minutes” further on comes this log on attempt (So it had logged off).
Do you think he was trying to “hide from radar” ?
Primary would have him (Although I did read that it was missing somewhere after he had crossed into The Malacca Strait….that maybe worth confirming).
And then what about that U.K. sailor ?
She claims to have seen “an object” flying South. And glowing orange.
Could an aircraft be “on fire”….and still continue ?
I’d say “Impossible”. But is it at all possible…however unlikely ?
That seems really “out there”. But it certainly is a complete mystery.
An orange glow:
http://aircrashed.com/cause/cMIA03FA130.shtml
“All but one flight attendant (On-Board Leader) reported seeing an orange glow during the right engine start. The flight attendant who was occupying a seat in coach reported seeing “an orange glow, like flames flickering at the windows.” One of the flight attendants reported to NTSB she couldn’t tell if the orange glow was inside or outside. A flight attendant who was securing the galley area near the 2L door reported to NTSB hearing a noise from the “wing area” that sounded like passengers screaming. She stood up from her kneeling position and noted passengers standing directly in front of her. She could not see the wings because people were standing but did report seeing an “orange glow” in the cabin. She reported passengers were trying to reach the door which she was blocking with her body and a male passenger who was wearing a “burgundy shirt and tan pants” yelled, “fire, [expletive], fire.” “
James
There is also the oil rig worker he seemed pretty clear in his report he saw a fire that went out after 10/15 seconds.
http://www.news.com.au/world/oil-rig-worker-says-he-saw-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-burst-into-flames/story-fndir2ev-1226853302184
“I tried to contact Malaysian and Vietnamese officials days ago. But I do not know if the message has been received.
“I am on the oil ring Songa-Mercur off the coast of Vung Tau.
“The surface location of the observation is Lat 08 22’ 30.20” N Lat 108 42.22.26” E.
“I observed (the plane?) burning at high altitude at a compass bearing of 265* to 275*”
Mr McKay is working on the oil rig Songa Mercur off Vung Tau, on the south east coast of Vietnam. This would put the plane in the same general area where a Chinese satellite has spotted a suspected crash site.
Q
Makes you wonder if there were interceptors up in the sky that night !
Although never seen…or reported (or simple not there !).
“Human input” changed the direction of the a/c (and not just once)
If the sailor is believed, it was “glowing” near Banda Aceh.
And the Aussies say it was likely on a/p …with the everyone “unconscious”.
What’s the time for IGARI across Malaysia and up to Banda Aceh ?
My guess….about 50 minutes. Now aint that a daisy !
Pink
So this guy is north of IGARI….and sees “something” in the East.
And he sees it because it “burning”….and then it goes out.
(We assume “it crashed” by “goes out”…but what if it just “went out”).
Then a sailor off to the North West of Banda Aceh sees something “glowing orange”.
But nothing seen (would we be told) over Malaysia.
Although it may not be seen…as it “go on”.
Makes you think.
Fire ? Suppression ? Re ignition ?
This Boeing bird is capable of next generation jamming:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EA-18G_Growler
Was it involved in the military exercises with Thailand?
http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/indian-agni-5-missile-test-set-march/
http://www.siasat.com/english/news/india-planning-agni-4-missile-test-next-week
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agni_(missile)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Q5zsSovvs
Strangely enough, “off the coast of Odisha” would mean “over the Bay of Bengal”. Wheeler Island is in the Bay of Bengal. That glow looks orange.
It would be helpful to know if any nations in the area tested missiles around the time MH370 went missing, even though we have been told that no missiles were involved in the making of the MH370 story.
If a missile test did take place that night, it could have occurred independent of the MH370, or not.
Orange glow: March 2014 did see missile testing in the Bay of Bengal (K-4) and at Balasore, Odisha (Prithvi):
http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/india/IndiaMissileUpdateApril2014.html
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/india-successfully-test-fires-nuclear-capable-prithvi-ii-missile-501322
Many types of missile have been tested by India in the Bay of Bengal, some from pontoons. What is under the water in the Bay of Bengal that no one wants to find?
http://georesonance.com/20140630%20Press%20Release.pdf
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/drdo-testfire-of-prithvi-missile-defence-vehicle-a-significant-step/article5953149.ece
Lots of radar there, and total silence on MH370 from India.
Trains on the Baripada-Balasore line in Odisha, India were cancelled on March 8, 2014 due to work on the line.
http://www.eastcoastrail.indianrailways.gov.in/view_detail.jsp?lang=0&dcd=1487&id=0,4,268
For reference purposes.
Just sayin’:
http://wikkorg.wordpress.com/2014/02/07/high-speed-rail-has-immense-strategic-military-value-china/
“The families also would like to know why Rolls Royce will not release the data on pings sent from MH370 at: 2:25am, 2:27am and 8:19am. The pings at 2:25am and 2:27am are out of the ordinary, as pings should normally be sent every hour only unless there is a problem with an engine. The data would normally include engine performance details as well as other aircraft data.
“GeoResonance stands by its claim that we have located what appears to be the wreck of an aircraft 190km South of the Bangladesh coastline in 1,000 to 1,100 metres of water. We have never claimed this to be MH370, however it is a lead that must be thoroughly followed through. It has been confirmed that the precise location supplied by GeoResonance to all authorities involved in the search
for MH370 has not been searched. The main reason for ignoring the location is the Australian Transport and Safety Bureau (ATSB) Chairman Martin Dolan making a
statement that GeoResonance methodology cannot do what we claim. This is without ever having anyone contacting GeoResonance for a technical presentation. This slanderous and ignorant statement by a senior public servant is unfathomable when GeoResonance regularly produces accurate results for commercial clients around
the globe.”
From: http://georesonance.com/20140630%20Press%20Release.pdf
The orange glow in the sky reported by more than one source on the night that MH370 disappeared, the proximity of Wheeler Island, Chandipur and Balasore to the location of GeoResonance’s claimed sunken airplane location off the coast of Bangladesh, the closure of an Indian rail line for repairs on March 8, 2014, the obvious military-grade radar in the Indian locations noted, and the stone-cold silence from India on the disappearance of MH370, despite its ongoing testing of long-range missiles in the Bay of Bengal — it all adds up to more of the big picture that makes it hard to believe the ever-changing and incomplete official version of events regarding MH370. The only thing that is credible is what GeoResonance may have been hinting at in its latest press release: this may be the biggest coverup since 9/11.
India has a no-first-use policy.
“In April 2013 Shyam Saran, convener of the National Security Advisory Board, affirmed that regardless of the size of a nuclear attack against India, be it a miniaturised version or a “big” missile, India will retaliate massively to inflict unacceptable damage.”
From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
India is also testing “beyond visual range” air-to-air missiles on real targets:
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2014/05/05/india-tests-its-home-grown-air-to-air-missile/
“It said the Astra is an advanced missile with a “high single shot kill probability” and electronic counter-countermeasures to resist jamming by enemy radars.”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/First-successful-Astra-test-gives-boost-to-air-missile-technology/articleshow/34652986.cms
The second link describes briefly a “torturous” development process, including false starts and technical glitches. It also says the next step in testing involves “”actual manoeuvring targets” mimicking enemy aircraft”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astra_%28missile%29
“The missile guidance is provided by a terminal active radar-seeker and an updated mid-course internal guidance system, which locates and tracks targets. On-board electronic counter-measures jam radar signals from enemy radar, making tracking of the missile difficult.
“On 11 January 2010, the Astra was test-fired in the Chandipur-on-sea area, off the Odisha coast. However, the test wasn’t successful, due to a slight failure in electronic system of the missile.
“The missile will be able to intercept target aircraft at supersonic speed.
“Astra has on-board ECCM capability allowing it to jam radar signals from an enemy surface-to-air battery, ensuring that the missile is not tracked or shot down.
“Astra was successfully test fired for two consecutive days on 21st and 22 December 2012 at Chandipur, successfully intercepted an electronic target and a Laksya target drone. The missile would be test fired from aircraft after three more ground launches.”
Chandipur is on the Bay of Bengal.
The INMARSAT dude once said “He didn’t know if it was a prank” (paraphrased).
Did he think that the system could actually be “fooled” ?
How do they “know” that the “new log on” at 0225 was MH370 ?
0041/0043 INMARSAT T/O
0055/0056 INMARSAT In Flight
0106/1007 INMARSAT In Flight (and last ACARS)
0119 “Goodnight” Last communication
0121 Transponder off/disabled/whatever
0203/0205 INMARSAT, but no R Channel or T Channel (No BFO to record)
0225/0228 INMARSAT “New Log on”.
And then so on…. (Including the 1st Sat Call at 0239 from MAS)
NOTE.
They didn’t (not one is not shown) try to call the a/c for 1 hour and 18 mins.
After the “New Log on”, they gave it “10 mins” and called ????
I find that odd.
I really do hope that the “new log on” at 0225 and subsequent handshakes until the “partial new log on” at 0019 was actually the “original” MH370.
Here’s another “odd thing”.
02.22 Malaysia claim to have LOST Primary radar contact with MH370.
02.25 3 mins later and MH370 has it’s mystery “re boot” of INMARSAT link
Meanwhile….
Down on the sea a Brit sailor claims to see an object “glowing orange”.
India has remote sensing satellites (like the ones Saad al-Hilli used to work on). These eyes in the sky saw nothing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_Satellite_Launch_Vehicle
From Defence Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein.
“He said the Malaysian Government would only rely on reports released by the Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC) when it involves MH370”.
INTERESTING ! Is he disputing the “log on request” in the IMARSAT data ?
Maybe he’ll get angry and let us see the Primary Radar Data.
ELECTRICAL OUTAGE NOT VERIFIED
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/07/01/MH370-Hishammuddin/
@James: Maybe he’s not fond of headlines like “Flight MH370 may have tried to skirt radar detection using mysterious mid-air power outage, observers say”.