By sending troops into the Ukraine, (others than those stationed there by agreement) Putin has broken international law. That does not depend on the Budapest Memorandum. It would be a breach of international law whether the Budapest Memorandum existed or not. The effect of the Budapest Memorandum is rather to oblige the US and the UK to do something about it.
The existence of civil disturbance in a country does not justify outside military intervention. That it does is, of course, the Blair doctrine that I have been campaigning against for 15 years, inside and outside government. Putin of course opposes such interventions by the West, in Iraq, Syria or Libya, but supports such interventions when he does them, as in Georgia and Ukraine. That is hypocrisy. There are elements on the British left who also oppose such interventions when the West does them, but support when Putin does them. You can see their arguments on the last comments thread: fascinatingly none of them have addressed my point about Putin’s distinct lack of interest in the principle of self-determination when it comes to Chechnya or Dagestan.
The overwhelming need now is to de-escalate the crisis. People rushing about in tanks and helicopters very often leads to violence, and here Putin is at fault. There was no imminent physical threat to Russians in the Crimea, and there is no need for all this military activity. Ukraine should file a case against Russia at the International Court of Justice; the UK and US, as guarantor states, can ask to be attached as guarantor states with an interest in the Budapest Memorandum . That will fulfil their guarantor obligations without moving a soldier.
The West is not going to provide the kind of massive financial package needed to rescue the Ukraine’s moribund economy and relieve its debts. It would be great if it did, but with western economies struggling, no western politician is in a position to announce many billions in aid to the Ukraine. The chances of Ukraine escaping from Russian political and economic domination in the near future are non-existent – the Ukrainians are tied by debt. That was the hard reality that scuppered the EU/Ukraine agreement. That hard reality still exists. The Association Agreement is a very long path to EU membership.
Both Putin and the West are reacting to events which unfolded within Ukraine. Action by the West was not a significant factor in the toppling by Yanukovich – that was a nationalist reaction to an abrupt change of political direction which seemed to be moving Ukraine decisively into the Russian orbit. Ukrainians are not stupid and they can see the standard of living in former Soviet Bloc countries which have joined the European Union is now much higher . Anybody who denies that is deluded. Of course western governments had programmes to encourage pro-western tendencies in Ukraine, including secret operations. It would be naïve to expect otherwise. Anybody who thinks Russia was not doing exactly the same is deluded. But it is a huge mistake to lay too much weight on these efforts – both the West and Russia were taken aback by the strength and speed of the political convulsions in Ukraine, and everybody is still paying catch-up.
Which is why we now need a period of calm, and an end to dangerous military adventurism – which undeniably is coming primarily from Russia. Political dialogue needs to be resumed. It is interesting that even the pro-Russian assembly of Crimea region has only called a referendum on more devolved powers, not on union with Russia or independence. However I still maintain the best way forward is agreement on internationally supervised referenda to settle the position. The principle of self-determination should be the most important one here. If any of the regions of Ukraine wish to secede, the goal should be a peaceful and orderly transition. Effective military annexation by Putin, and insistence by the West that national boundaries cannot be changed, are both unproductive stances.
Herbie, 7:22 pm; I haven’t seen a video, but in the photograph on the translated article I linked, Ukrainian MP’s look pleased and don’t appear to be coerced. But if you can find contrary evidence, do post it. I’m convinced he was an unpopular criminal. Have you seen the ‘palace’ he had built? I think he had $18 billion.
Please just do the research and don’t drag arguments out. I’m reading Boiling Frogs, but it’s quite a long article.
Res Diss
You’re waffling.
All the Ukrainian leaders are corrupt, including the one whom you claim was locked up on trumped up charges.
When I say corrupt, I mean that they’re not quite so discreet as their western counterparts.
And please, spare me the propaganda.
This is quite simply another effort by the west at installing its own puppets, something which it seems you support.
Even Yanukovych own Party recognised that he had lost legitimacy
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_02_23/Party-of-Regions-faction-blames-Yanukovych-for-fatalities-in-Ukraine-events-5981/
And this was reported on one of the Putinophiles approved channels of communication!
Herbie, despite what I’ve written about Yanukovych, I don’t support the violence of the right-wingers, and I still want to know where the apparently paramilitary force came from, their funding, and who was giving them orders. They’re very conspicous on the videos.
Herbie, I don’t have a very political mind. I find the numbers of people involved and their multiple conflicting objectives confusing. But the sort of thing you’re doing, picking fights with Habbabkuk based upon your assumptions about his intentions, makes it much more difficult for me.
Please just research and post convincing evidence.
Clark
I’m not sure what you’re on about, Clark.
They’re all corrupt. They work for oligarchs, you see.
You seem to think this one was especially corrupt and that leads you to think even his own supporters would willingly vote against him.
Try and understand what it was like to be in Kiev with armed fascists roaming about through the parliament. Remember there’s no police. The fascists are now the muscler. His supporters would not willingly vote him out, other than in fear of their lives.
The boiling frogs article explains all that.
This is quite simply another effort by the west at installing its own puppets, something which it seems you support.
As opposed to being puppets of Putin which seems to cause you no problems whatsoever.
Habbabkuk, and while I’m at it, could you PLEASE stop winding people up? It just makes them worse. Have a bit of sympathy for the not-naturally-political like me, and help to keep things simple. The situation we’re looking at is complex enough already.
“The boiling frogs article explains all that.”
and the Voice of Russia report suggests the opposite – I’m sorry they didn’t quite change the propaganda line in time.
Read this Craig:
http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/reichstag-fire-in-kiev.html
Clark
I’m not making assumptions. I’m simply asking questions about habby’s stated position.
Res Diss
Were Russia involving itself in the internal affairs of a country within the US or Western orbit of influence, you’d have a point, but he isn’t and you don’t.
=========================================================================
How many times do people have to see the same trick pulled before they wake up. It might be slightly better were anyone to benefit from these outrages but only a select few will do so.
Herbie, sorry, the photo’ wasn’t on my translated article link, it was on this BBC article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304842
The police stopped keeping the protesters out. For now, I’m assuming that the police did that because they wanted to; they stopped supporting corruption.
The protests obviously have huge popular support; this is NOT all one-sided. On the other hand, there is what looks like a very organised paramilitary force present.
Now I’m going back to Boiling Frogs, because I always try to look at all sides. You could have helped by pasting the paragraph you thought most relevant into your comment and giving a paragraph reference with your link, but you seem to put more of your time into having an argument here on this thread.
“Fuking playground politics from agent Cameron.”
And how else would you suggest that he shows his disapproval?
Resident Dissident, I think the point Mark was trying to make is that Cameron has no pull in the international arena. He cannot even get Shaker Aamer released from Guantanamo Bay even though we are supposed to have a special relationship. An he has given me no answer why.
http://newsjunkiepost.com/2014/01/24/free-shaker-aamer-from-gitmo-an-open-letter-to-british-pm-david-cameron/
The biggest source of the problems in the Ukraine is its pro-Westers minority, headed by Tymoskenko which has never accepted the election returns for its President.
In South Ossetia, it was that Western stooge, Saakaswili, who hoped to surprise Putin by invading the Russian ethnic areas south of the Caucusus, but the Russian President learned of it first, and beat his forces to the southern exit of the tunnel under the mountains.
Habby
Were Nuland and the ambassador picking leaders?
Yes or No.
Should be “And he has given me no answer why.”
Everywhere I look, ‘news’ articles are plagued by opinion. I have to wade through reams of it to encounter a few facts, which then often turn out to be unsourced, poorly sourced, or sourced from further opinion. It’s a fucking nightmare.
Clark
You say that the protests obviously had huge popular support. Where are you getting that from?
How are you quantifying it?
I hope it’s not just another photograph.
You still don’t seem to appreciate that the armed fascists were running Kiev, rather than the remaining police.
Hasn’t it crossed your mi
“Were Russia involving itself in the internal affairs of a country within the US or Western orbit of influence, you’d have a point, but he isn’t and you don’t.”
So what you are really saying is that it is ok for Putin to interfere in what you consider to be Russia’s orbit of influence. I’m afraid this is just gold old fashioned imperialism – and you favoured empire is of course the good old Soviet Union.
Just as a matter of interest do you regard Syria as being within Putin’s legitimate orbit of influence. Is Africa part of China’s legitimate orbit of influence? Are the Ukrainians allowed to have their own orbit of influence?
I’m afraid you’ve just hung yourself on your own petard.
Res Diss
Not at all. You’re obviously quite happy that the West interferes in other countries and have supported such intervention in the past, but you’re not happy that Russia protects its interests on its border.
You just don’t appreciate that this could be for Russia what Cuba was for the US.
That’s your hypocrisy.
I think Kennedy was right about the Cuban missile crisis but the US was not right about subsequent plots against Cuba and Castro.
RD – “And how else would you suggest that he shows his disapproval?”
By communicating face to face and giving ‘piece of mind’ advice not disdain.
Disabled British athletes competing in Sochi doubtless feel left in the cold – paltry, pitiful and pathetic Mr Cameron. Classic empty suit.
Herbie, watch the Babylon 13 videos on YouTube. Support is widespread. People are bringing food and other support to those paramilitary forces. Ordinary people were collecting and breaking up cobblestones. People are singing!
We’ve also had personal reports here on this blog. See Phil’s comments here:
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/02/why-should-ukraine-not-split/comment-page-2/#comment-443075
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/02/why-should-ukraine-not-split/comment-page-2/#comment-443135
Yes, I believe that US-based interests have been running a propaganda campaign in Ukraine. But those campaigns were targeted at feelings that really did exist among the people. It’s mentioned in the boiling Frogs article; loads of Ukrainians wanted Ukraine to join the EU. When it didn’t happen, violence broke out or was ordered or both.
There are probably no right-wrong answers in this. It’s going to be a case of making the best of a bad job. And yes, yet again, it looks like US interests have strengthened and encouraged violent forces, and that this will have repercussions long after the US interests have achieved their objectives.
Usual mess.
Sunday, March 02, 2014
‘NATO TROOPS SHOT BOTH SIDES IN UKRAINE’ – REPORT http://aangirfan.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/nato-troops-shot-both-sides-in-ukraine.html
Resident Dissident, no it’s not OK for Russia to interfere in Ukraine, but can you really imagine them not doing so with all this going on?
It should never have come to this. And that’s a failing shared between many governments, created over a long time.
Seriously, if we as humans can’t manage something purely human like this, what possible hope do we have against climate change? We all of us really need to raise our game, and fast. If we can’t even stop squabbling here on this nice little blog, how can we point the finger at anyone else?
I don’t quite agree with ‘Resident Dissident’ above, since Mr. Murray’s stance on so-called ‘liberal interventionism’ seems consistent and he grounds his arguments in International Law. The problem is, though, that Blair and Clinton and comrades let that cat out of the bag nearly twenty years ago. I remember Putin saying in relation to Serbia/Kosovo that the West’s stance in that matter would “come back to haunt them”. I guess he was right.
Where I disagree with Mr. Murray is in what he doesn’t say rather than what he says.
Firstly, with regard to Russian actions in the Caucasus, my understanding is that Russia believes in the Nation-state and its sovereignty and independence. They also put some store in International Law. Their words and their actions would at least seem to have the virtue of consistency – unlike the West, who always expect to be able to have it both ways. Whether we like it or not, Dagestan and Chechnya are part of Russia – just as New Mexico, Arizona and California are part of the U.S.A. (ask the Mexicans!).
Secondly, Russia’s actions, however illegal are re-active, not pro-active. They have been sorely provoked – not just over the past decade in Ukraine, but for more than twenty years since the U.S.S.R. went belly up. It really isn’t a good idea to rub people’s noses in it and take the opportunity to give ’em a jolly good kicking when they’re down. One day they’ll get up. That doesn’t justify what they’ve done, but it makes it understandable. They’ve been pushed and pushed, insulted and ridiculed. What do people expect? And why the double standard. We maintain fairly good relations with China and some fairly dubious people in Central Asia who are at least as bad a Putin. We ought to be on much better terms with Russia and it is entirely our fault that we are not.
Agent CameraOn will be on a four way phone call tonight to Kerry in the US, Lithuania and Poland (Tusk). Hope he’s using the Friends and Families rate.
The UN needs to be relocated from the city of 911 urgently it has lost its authority. We have the murderous “Fuck EU” crowd organising coups and cannibals against democratically elected governments with redneck gungho “we came we saw and he died” high ranking US operatives distributing matzo balls to trained CIA operatives & seditionists on the ground in public squares,openly in broad daylight. And now we have had the Russian retort to the complete diss of the UN by the Beast mentioned in the Bible aka the Great Satan.
Its all downhill from now on unless the UN Headquarters are relocated, Craig Murray is a bit naive if he thinks the US/NATO can REPEATEDLY diss the UN Charter whilst expecting the rest to meekly lie back and think of England ! The Russians have enough power to raze USrael to the ground in FOUR HOURS. When bibi satanyahu was getting a bit uppity with Jericho they fired the nuclear-capable missile RS-12M Topol from South Russia to its test destination near Khazakstan – an exact distance to Tel Aviv in case no one noticed.
Could I someone to do some research from here please:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleh_Tsariov
The aangirfan article is partly based on the testimony of “Ukrainian lawmaker” Oleg Tsarev, “a Dnipropetrovsk businessman and People’s Deputy of Ukraine for the Party of Regions” (Wikipedia). But on the History page, things like this keep being added and removed:
Clark
The Ukraine is a deeply divided, cobbled together entity and it’s my view that those who would set alight those divisions are to blame for what has now transpired and they did it in full knowledge of what the result would be.
There’ll always be genuine people who just want a better life, but this wasn’t the way to go about it, and ultimately they’re just being used anyway.
Were the West really interested in the wellbeing of the Ukraine they could have got together with the Russians, but no, they used these ethnic and other divisions to undermine the Russians thereby creating this mess.
If there’s anyone to blame for the fracture it lies in the West rather than Russia.
Thanks Mark, Cameron is about as wet as a kipper sliding down a rock on this issue, wet and slimy.
How can you not support the paralympics team when all of this is happening?
I’m off to bed, need to be ready for tommorrows practical archeology lessons. I’m helping with recording the ruins of the Gorleston Priory, a medieval priory that produced some of the finest manuscripts of the 14th. century.
the Gorleston Psalter is now in the british museum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorleston_Psalter
there are also websites which show some of the expertly painted scenes, but my bandwidth here is hairsplitting and sites take ages to load.
Спокойной ночи и спать спокойно
Habba @4.37 PM.
I’m afraid I can’t give you a ‘clearer picture’ of the composition of Ukraine’s sovereign debt other than that provided in the link I gave earlier.
I posted that link as you queried what Craig meant by stating ‘The chances of Ukraine escaping from Russian political and economic domination in the near future are non-existent – the Ukrainians are tied by debt’.
Mr Ward explains that a) a disproportionate amount of their sovereign debt is in very short term bonds and that b)Russia is no longer willing to buy these bonds.
Further elucidation from me on the relevance of these points won’t be forthcoming. For more information on the economic fallout from the current crisis please contact-
Mr G Soros
C/O International Crisis Group
Brussels
Belgium
If you are seeking to profit from the current situation, he has peerless expertise in this area.