Just a month ago, Putin had one of his pet oligarchs, the firmly pro-Russian multi-billionaire Yanukovich, in power in Ukraine. Putin had been to an awful lot of trouble to ensure that Yanukovich got elected. It is undoubtedly true that the United States and its allies funded various pro-western groups in the Ukraine – my friend Ray McGovern, former senior CIA, put a figure of US$100 million on it, and he should know. The resources Putin poured in to ensure Yanukovich’s election were more in kind than financial, but were not on too different a scale.
In earlier attempts to put Yanukovich in power, Putin had in 2004 helped organise massive electoral fraud, and Putin’s secret service had attempted to assassinate Victor Yushchenko. The 2010 election of Yanukovich also involved a great deal of fraud. Russia is an influential member of the OSCE, Ukraine is also a member and that organization is notably mealy-mouthed in pointing out the derelictions of its own members. Nonetheless its observation mission of the 2010 Presidential elections stated:
“The presidential election met most OSCE commitments and other international standards for democratic elections and consolidated progress achieved since 2004. The process was transparent and offered voters a genuine choice between candidates representing diverse political views. However, unsubstantiated allegations of large-scale electoral fraud negatively affected the election atmosphere and voter confidence in the process.”
That is about as close as the OSCE has ever come to accusing one of its own members of fraud. International organisations have their obvious limitations.
Putin had put years of effort into getting the President of Ukraine which he wanted, and he had him. Yanukovich attempted to steer an even-handed path between Russia and the West, while putting his main effort into acquiring an astonishing personal fortune. Putin lost patience when Yanukovich appeared ready to sign an EU association agreement, and put extremely heavy pressure on Yanukovich over debt, energy supplies, and doubtless some deeply personal pressures too. Yanukovich backed down from the EU Association agreement and signed a new trade deal with Russia, appearing on the path to Putin’s cherished new Eurasian customs union.
The west – and not only the west – of Ukraine erupted into popular protest. The reason for this is perfectly simple. Income, lifestyle, education, health and social security for ordinary people are far better in western and central Europe than they are in Russia. The standard of living for ordinary Polish people in Poland has caught up at a tremendous rate towards the rest of the EU. I am not depending on statistics here – I have lived in Poland, travelled widely in Poland and speak Polish. I was professionally involved in the process of Polish economic transformation. There have been a large number of commenters on this blog this last few days who deny that the standard of living for ordinary people in Poland is better as a result of EU membership, and believe life for ordinary people is better in Russia than in the west. I also of course speak Russian and have travelled widely in Russia. Frankly, you have to be so ideologically blinkered to believe that, I have no concerns if such people leave this blog and never come back; they are incapable of independent thought anyway.
Undoubtedly pro-western groups financed by the US and others played a part in the anti-Yanukovich movement. They may have had a catalytic role, but that cannot detract from the upswell of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who were not paid by the West, and drove Yanukovich from power. It is true that, when the situation became violent some very unpleasant nationalist, even fascist, groups came to the fore. There is a great deal of extreme right wing thuggery in all the former Soviet Union – ask Uzbeks who live in Russia. The current government in power in Kiev seem a diverse bunch, and seem to include some pleasant people and some very unpleasant people. Elections this year will make things clearer. It is also true that corruption is the norm among the Ukrainian political elite, across any nationalist or ideological divides.
In a very short space of time, Putin went from the triumph of killing off the EU Association agreement to the disaster of completely losing control of Kiev. But for reasons including trade, infrastructure and debt, the new government was bound to come back to some relationship and accommodation with Putin eventually. It just needed patience.
Instead of which, Putin decided to go for a macho seizure of the Crimea. There is no doubt that the actions of surrounding military bases and government buildings by Russian forces, and controlling roads and borders, are illegal under international law. There also appears little doubt that a large proportion of Crimea’s population would like union with Russia, though whether a genuine majority I am not sure. I am sure under these circumstances of intimidation and military occupation, the referendum will show a massive majority. Hitler pulled the same trick.
So now Putin can stride the stage as the macho guy who outfoxed the west and used his military to win Crimea for Mother Russia. But it is an extremely hollow victory. He has gained Crimea, but lost the other 95% of the Ukraine, over which one month ago he exercised a massive political influence.
The western powers will not bring any really effective sanctions that would harm the financial interests of the interconnected super-rich, be they Russian oligarchs or City bankers. But they will now do what they were not prepared to do before, provide enough resources to make Ukraine politically free of Russia. The EU has already agreed to match the US$19 billion in guarantees Putin had promised to Yanukovich. Before the annexation of Crimea the EU was not prepared to do that.
The Crimea was the only ethnic Russian majority province in Ukraine. Donetsk does not have an ethnic Russian majority, only a Russian speaking majority – just like Cardiff has an English speaking majority. The difference is key to understand the situation, and largely ignored by the mainstream media. Without Crimea, the chances of the pro-Putin forces in the rest of Ukraine ever mustering an electoral majority are extremely slim. Putin has gained Crimea and lost Ukraine – has he really won?
The real tragedy, of course, is that Ukraine’s relationships are viewed as a zero-sum game. Russia has huge interests in common with Europe. I hope to see Ukraine a member of the EU in the next decade, and Putin has made that vastly more likely than it was a month ago. But why does that have to preclude a close economic relationship with Russia? The EU should not operate as a barrier against the rest of the world, but as a zone of complete freedom within and ever-expanding freedom to and from without. And European Union will never be complete until Russia, one of the greatest of European cultures, is a member.
Well Said Jives…
Alcanon, and myself expressed our hope that Mary is ok…on Wednesday – over at Alcanon’s Squonk blog….
But the thing is, Mary has went silent from over there Too… I hope she’s not ill or something.
Uzbek – I heard Dick Cheney accusing Russia of using blackmail and intimidation in its energy policy towards Europe in 2006! Russia is sadly an intimate partner in the Western financial
ponzi schemesystem with financial assets in the City of London corporation, the dark heart of Britain.Capital needed to develop more energy fields (increased consumption has depleted North sea reserves) is raised through Western banks as Russian listed companies on the European stock-exchange, so risking revenue for political ends would be financial suicide. Russia is also dependent on Europe for exports.
Money rules dude (Russia/Israel energy contract?!!) and commercial suicide would threaten Russia’s existence esp. in these moments before fiat collapse. (start being self-sufficient- it makes sense)
Brian,
Mary’s emailed me before about squonk stuff so I’ve sent an email to her just to check all is okay. Hope she’s just away for a bit.
Fred, I cleared your comment over there.
Before retiring I have a question for Uzbek in the UK. The Andijan Massacre was a massacre by government forces upon unharmed protestors by a government which NATO countries, including the UK are happy to support. It is NATO countries too that are supporting the newly-formed and unelected government. It was NATO countries in the run-up to the Iraq War who talked about Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction and a 45 minute delivery capability – all a pack of lies. The Ukraine and Uzbekistan are different countries. The Ukraine has already had several different governments, and a good few of those who have stolen power were in government before and responsible for the terrible economic situation. Karimov has been in dictatorial power for twenty four years. Yanukovich only for four. Think about it.
Do you trust the the governments that lied over Iraq, have introduced anti-terrorism laws by which people can be imprisoned without trial, extradited, rendered or deported countless Muslims to be telling the truth and interested in the welfare of Ukrainians?
By the way nobody, as far as I know has posted the link to Michael Andersen’s Massacre in Uzbekistan more than me so I wish you would stop telling people I support it.
http://www.massacre-in-uzbekistan.com/production.html
Good stuff Alcanon…
could be just some mad Techy P.c Trouble.
When people from the Ukrainian SSR travelled to the Baltic states and other Soviet block countries in the 1980s, they invariably reported that the standard of living was better there. After the disintegration of the Soviet block it was evident that the parts of the Soviet empire that had been subjugated more recently were recovering more quickly econimically. There may be complex reasons for this but one explanation popular in the Ukraine is that 80 years of communism is infinitely more destructive than 40 years, to the mentailty of the people. The Baltic states, Poland, Hungary and so on still had many people alive who remembered how a civilised country should function. There were no such people left in Ukraine and the rest of the USSR. If this thesis is right then we cannot conclude that Ukraine integrating more closely with the EU would result in a rapid economic revival similar to what happened in Poland. The results may be disappointing.
Craig,
Do you think Putin intends to move beyond Crimea?
Craig
reading your simple narrative bellow
“Income, lifestyle, education, health and social security for ordinary people are far better in western and central Europe than they are in Russia. The standard of living for ordinary Polish people in Poland has caught up at a tremendous rate towards the rest of the EU. I am not depending on statistics here – I have lived in Poland, travelled widely in Poland and speak Polish. I was professionally involved in the process of Polish economic transformation. There have been a large number of commenters on this blog this last few days who deny that the standard of living for ordinary people in Poland is better as a result of EU membership, and believe life for ordinary people is better in Russia than in the west. “
I agree that Poland is somewhat better off, although I know many Poles who are less convinced than you. What you present here is a faulty extrapolation of how Ukraine may hypothetically prosper by joining (well not for a long time) the EU while using Poland as an example. Hmm, what a pious thought. What about the other so called “new” EU members? How have Bulgaria, Romania, or the “old” member Greece prospered after joining EU? Have you ever travelled recently anywhere south of Naples? I bet you have not. I am not foolish enough to claim that it is all a fault of EU membership but where is the prosperity??
An Appeal From the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU) –
In an open appeal to international communist, workers’ and left parties, the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU) warns that their country is the latest to fall victim to the “colour revolutions.”
Fuelling the escalation of the conflict, says the CPU, is the political support of the Western powers in Ukraine. The U.S. State Department constantly demands that the Ukrainian authorities negotiate with the opposition, withdraw all law enforcement officers from Kiev, and allow the “opposition” to seize the government and reverse laws adopted by the Parliament of Ukraine.
Contrary to descriptions in the corporate media, these laws are consistent with similar legislation in the West, such as the requirement that public organizations financed from abroad must register as foreign agents. Many western countries have implemented laws to prohibit protesters from hiding their faces, or from using helmets and shields during demonstrations.
The Communist Party of Ukraine says it believes that “the responsibility for the violence equally rests on Ukraine’s leadership, whose actions forced the people of Ukraine to enter the mass protests, and leaders of the so‑called `opposition’, the ultra‑nationalist militant organizations and foreign politicians who urged people to `radicalize the protests’ and `fight to the bitter end.’”
The CPU is calling for an end to the use of force, non-interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine, and negotiations to end the conflict. The attempts to create parallel structures of authority, they say, threaten to escalate the conflict into civil war and a division of Ukraine.
In these circumstances, the Communist Party of Ukraine presents concrete proposals to resolve the situation:
– Declare a Ukrainian referendum on the definition of foreign economic policy of Ukraine’s integration.
– Conduct a political reform to eliminate the presidency and install a parliamentary republic, and significantly expand the rights of territorial communities.
– Return to a proportional voting electoral system.
– Establish an independent civilian “National control” body with the broadest powers.
– Conduct judicial reform and introduce the institution of electing judges.
The CPU also urges international condemnation of extremist actions, fascist propaganda, and external interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine.
Full Appeal statement @
http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukrainian-communists-condemn-violence-and-the-us-eu-for-orchestrating-a-coup-with-fascists/5372336
Uzbek in disguise,
Do you work full time for some NGO intended on bringing democracy to many unfortunate countries thus targeted? I can be wrong but you are neither Uzbek nor in the UK. My guess is that you have been a sleeper for some time recently brought to life by a call from…., well I rather leave this one out.
The ‘gift’ of Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR was not made for obscure reasons. It was done ostensibly to commemorate 300 years of the ‘unification’ of Russia and Ukraine. Scholars of Ukrainian history will know that the deal concluded by Bohdan Hmelnytsky in 1654 at Pereyaslav was indeed a more or less voluntary one, though his options were limited (Poland, Turkey or Russia, take your pick. Attempts at independence would have been extremely short-lived). It did not take long before this ‘union of equals’ was transformed into complete subjugation of Ukraine by Russia. So this was a big deal, the maintenance of the myth. But behind the scenes there was another reality – after the forceful deportation of the Tatars the economy of Crimea was nowhere and a concerted effort to revive it was needed. The agricultural statistics from “Crimean Pravda” tell the story, e.g. average productivity of grain cultures, fruit, tobacco, wine, potatoes etc all fell between 2 and 5 fold in the years after the war. People with agricultural expertise relevant to the southern climate were needed. Water was diverted from Dnieper for irrigation. After the hand-over, the responsibility for economic revival of Crimea belonged to the Ukrainian SSR. The source is here, in Ukrainian: http://www.istpravda.com.ua/articles/2014/03/3/26135/
Perhaps Craig is right and the Russian speaking Ukrainians in the east feel predominantly loyal to Kiev. I know that in my home town in south Ukraine where people often speak Ukrainian in the home and (through habit mostly) Russian in the street, this is the case. But be warned, the ‘cossacks’ you see on TV beating up Pussy Riot girls for simply speaking their minds, etc are the descendants of ethnic Ukrainians who were relocated to the Khanate of Crimea lands by the Russians to protect the southern frontier. These people still sing Ukrainian folk songs, but their allegiances are not with Kiev.
Uzbek in disguise,
Having noticed your valuable contributions
“Herbie
Yes. In fact East Germany (despite being Germany) was one of the least developed eastern block could only be compared to Romania of that time.”
Excelent news, I must say. Craig will undoubtedly agree with your claim as he among other languages also speaks German. Unfortunately, I have to revise my rather poor opinion of you. You must be member of one of the top class think tanks, could it be Brookings? I read somelaim sit a aions could only be compared to Romania of that time.ut top class inst
Uzbek in disguise,
have not finished with you yet. My computer is fucked (not by the fuck-EU-Nuland-nudel, I hope) after having visited some really evil sites. So the last sentence should read:
Having heard somewhere that experts from Brookings can identify what you had for lunch by sniffing your farts, I wonder whether it can be true.
Ukraine apparently needs $15 billion right now, and the EU is kindly willing to lend it, provided the government of Ukraine brings in an austerity package, including cuts to pensions, elimination of jobs, etc.
But Ukraine’s 13 billionaires have a combined net worth of $61 billion, so why don’t they simply impose a one-time 25% capital tax, and eliminate the deficit at a stroke. They’d still need some austerity to avoid future unpayable deficits, but at least they’d be at a better starting point.
This proposal will of course horrify the globalists like Craig for whom a global system run by plutocrats is the objective, so I guess the Ukrainians should be looking to Greece and Latvia to understand their own future: i.e., mass emigration of the best and brightest of the younger generation, plus massive unemployment among the rest, while global capital mops up the best waterfront real estate at knock-down prices, etc.
I wonder though, if shooting demonstrators pour encouragez les autres is seen as an OK way to promote the globalist project, won’t the globalist vision lose some of its lustre? Certainly the revelation that all members of the present government have a “dirty past” according to the foreign minister of Estonia, and that the US spend $5 billion arranging the Kiev coup, according to Vicky Nuland, seems to rob the whole wonderful concept of Western-style democracy of some of its allure.
By ToivoS
“Why is Craig so sure it was an assassination attempt and what evidence was there, if it was, that it was done by Russian agents? I suspect excessive dislike of the Russians is affecting his judgement.”
Mebbe he hasnt reached the nadir of his love and affection for the callous NWO sniping devils of the Maidan ! The rap artists call it “pussy power”, poor Mordechai Vanunu spent 18 years in jail after being mesmerised by it in Rome.
I don’t share your optimism of centres of concentrated power. Seems historically stupid to wish to see them.
Could the real Russian anxiety be less the EU membership than yet another NATO colony on their doorstep? You fail to mention that Gorbachev admin wound up the warsaw Pact peacefully in return for a pledge not to expand NATO eastward. This was not only broken within a year but now Moscow has a missile shield on its borders, which laughably the media swallows as being for defence against Iranian missiles.
You also dismiss western interference as being no more than catalytic. Really? US$5bn invested in Ukrainian institutions by the supposedly debt ridden USA as revealed by Nuland was just catalytic???
Disappointed in your article.
I normally applaud the sane comments from Craig on this blog,but I rather think the anti-Putin Western hysteria has gotten to him. Certainly the man is authoritarian and presumably has a violent background from KGB days-and I would certainly not want him as my President!-but clearly 70% of the Russian population do-and it would appear a good percentage of Eastern Ukraine as well! (by the way, Russian unemployment is currently 5%)
This whole incident is a direct result of Western intelligence, commercial and state entities determined to eliminate any potential for a resurgence of Russian international influence. How many Russian speaking Ukrainians ultimately identify with Kiev rather than Russia is anybody’s guess at this point -I would watch Donestsk for clues…
The antipathy of many Western Ukrainians to Russia is also very understandable-
a little history tells us why…
http://www.newantarctica.com/ukrainian-situation-an-analysis/http://www.newantarctica.com/ukrainian-situation-an-analysis/
Craig. Your piece is nothing but a load of speculative anti-Putin crap. Are you trying to worm your way back into favour with the foreign office – or are you that desperate for money? I cannot believe that you are just stupid and actually believe the garbage put out by the various US MSM stations – maybe you are angling for an interview or a minor position with the Gardian. Pathetic garbage – you have lost it.
Dad. 7 38 pm yesterday.
“I agree with 95% of what you wrote.”
Remember, this is the genius who wishes to solve the wider problem by having the Russian populations of the Baltic states expelled.
…
Kurtan. 7 56pm
“Mobile phone age,reports of troop movements,no restrictions on movement, just approaching bases. If there were large troop movments someone would have recorded them. They haven’t happened.”
Is it conceivable that the corporate media would miss the propaganda opportunities that such crowd-sourced reports would provide if they existed?
Creative suggestions for how to treat Crimea’s secessionists from Kiev’s newly-appointed deputy head of south-eastern Ukraine.
“This scum should be given promises, guarantees, and any concessions…And hung…They should be hung later.”
https://www.facebook.com/borys.filatov/posts/603173516431216
Uzbek
“This is VERY BLOODY low from troll blogger with ribbon of St George and Russia stands for freedom motto.
“Politkovskaya “murdered by KGB goons”
Do you question this? Is this also CIA propoganda?”
Well, that would certainly be their modus operandi, don’t you think? Murder a well known opponent of the public person you want to smear? And it was immediately pinned on Putin in the Western press, before any investigation. That’s a giveaway.
By the way, I thought Putin was a chessplayer?
Russia transports its gas to Germany through the Nord Stream, into the Opal and Nel pipelines. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPAL_pipeline
These pipelines were constructed to avoid using the Ukraine and Belarus pipelines. Russia, appears to have taken the burden to be a reliable supplier of its gas to Germany. I’m making this point because there have been a few comments that don’t seem to be aware of this fact. I understand (I might be wrong on this) that Gazrprom owns the gas pipelines that go through the Ukraine, but their use is not as important now.
I think that Russia wants the Crimea because of its strategic military position, especially after “Yats”, as Nuland calls him, stated that he did not want the Crimea to be a Russian base (see Wikepedia Yatsenyuk). I can see Putin being nervous that Russia might lose that piece of real estate after spilling so much blood to secure it during the Crimean War. Taking it now will remove any need for agreements with any Kiev government in the future. I can also see why Russia would want the eastern portion of the Ukraine. Russia would benefit with more arable land. It seems that Russia had designs on the Ukraine, and the EU and the U.S. should have taken that into account. To quote Sun Tzu, “The Art of War.” “We cannot enter into alliances until we are acquainted with the designs of our neighbors.”
Tony Blair
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/opinion/londons-laundry-business.html?smid=tw-share&_r=5
One last point. Russia, I think wants what the Ukraine has (geographic position and arable land), while the U.S. and the EU want, as Craig Murray says, to make Russia part of the EU, piece by piece. Russia has the raw materials that Germany and the U.S. want at a cheapest price possible. Nobody is the good guy in the fight for the Ukraine. One thing is clear: the Ukrainians will lose the half price gas they desperately need right now when their coffers are empty. There’s no way the EU can give anything close to that benefit that the Russians are willing to absorb. Not freezing in the winter adds to the standard of living now, not years from now.
Herbie
Thank you for confirming all the good things I wrote about the Eminences’ new hero-cum-guru Dr Paul Craig Roberts and then adding some.
Thus:
“From early 1981 to January 1982, Roberts served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury”
and
“He wrote for the WSJ until 1980”
And it’s true that he has a doctorate.
Finally, I’m happy – but somewhat surprised – that you should see his erstwhile fellowship at the Cato Institute (look it up!) as a feather in his cap and an earnest of the soundness of his views on political economy. You’re progressing!
Hi Glenn_uk
“It appears that Mary’s champion achieved, in just a few posts, what her enemies could not in thousands.”
____________________
Would you agree that this – if it is fact the reason for Mary’s “disappearance – demonstrates the dangers of posters taking our host and his considered opinions for granted?
Would be happy, btw, to see more posts from you.
Ukraine debt
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2014/02/27/washingtons-man-yatsenyuk-setting-ukraine-up-for-ruin/
Evgueni (01h23)
I would agree with what you say and also with your conclusion. However, although the process will – for the reasons you point to – take longer than it did for Poland, I think Ukraine would get there in the end…if allowed to.
An important factor in this crisis seems to be Kremlin fear of the “contagion effect” on Russia and its people: the prospect of a former part of the USSR (as opposed to Poland, which was only an unwilling part of the Soviet Empire – achieving a higher standard of democracy and well-being must be deeply troubling for the Kremlin.