I am not opposed to self determination for the people of Crimea; I am opposed to this referendum. Nobody can seriously argue there has been a chance for a campaign in which different viewpoints can be freely argued, with some equality of media access and freedom from fear and intimidation.
Hitler invaded Austria on 12 March 1938. The Anschluss was confirmed in a plebiscite on 10 April, just 28 days later, by a majority of 99.7%. Putin has done it in less than half of the time, and I have no doubt will produce a similar result in the vote. The point is not whether or not the vote reflects the will of the people – the point is whether the will of the people has been affected by military demonstration, fear, hysterically induced national psychosis and above all an absence of space for debate or alternative viewpoints.
There is no reasonable claim that Putin’s swift plebiscite is necessary because of an imminent threat of violence against Russians in Crimea. There is absolutely no reason that a referendum could not have been held at the end of this year, in a calm and peaceful atmosphere, after everybody had a chance to campaign and express their position. Putin has proved that force majeure is powerful in international politics, and there is every reason to believe that he could have finessed international acceptance of such a referendum in due course. Germany, in particular, is much more interested in its own energy supplies than in the rights of Ukraine. In twenty years in diplomacy, I never saw a single instance of Germany having any interest in rights other than its own national self-interest. It is very likely such a genuine referendum would have gone in Russia’s favour. But the disadvantages of open debate about the merits and demerits of Putin’s Russia, and his own self-image as the man of military prowess, led Putin to take the more violent course.
The vote yesterday in the Security Council should give every Putinista pause. Not even China voted with Russia. The Africans and South Americans voted solidly against. That is not because they are prisoners or puppets of the United States – they are not. Neither did they take the easy road of abstention. The truth is that what Putin is doing in Crimea is outrageous.
What happens now is going to be interesting. I greatly fear that Putin is looking to stir up as much disorder in Ukraine’s Eastern provinces as possible, perhaps with the aim of promoting civil war in which Russia can covertly intervene, rather than open invasion, but I do not put the latter past him. Against that, I am quite sure Russia did not expect the extreme diplomatic isolation, in fact humiliation, it suffered at the UN yesterday. I am hopeful Russia may step back from the brink.
The EU I expect to do nothing. Sanctions will target a few individuals who are not too close to Putin and don’t keep too many of their interests in the West. I don’t think Alisher Usmanov and Roman Abramovic need lose too much sleep, that Harrods need worry or that we will see any flats seized at One Hyde Park. (It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.) Neither do I expect to see the United States do anything effective; its levers are limited. I doubt we have seen the last of Mr Putin’s adventurism.
Human society is not perfectible, which does not mean we should not try. I believe western democracy, particularly in its social democratic European manifestation from approximately 1945 to 2000, achieved a high level of happiness for its ordinary people and an encouraging level of equality. For approximately 20 years unfortunately we have witnessed a capitalism more raw and unabated than ever before, and massively growing levels of wealth inequality, a reduction in state provision for the needy, a distortion of state activity further to line the pockets of the rich, ever increasing corruption among the elite and growing levels of social immobility and exclusion, a narrowing of the options presented by major political parties until there is not a cigarette paper between them and their neo-conservative agendas, and a related narrowing by the mainstream media of the accepted bounds of public debate, with orchestrated ridicule of opinions outside those bounds. Democracy, as a system offering real choice to informed electors, has ceased to function in the West leading to enormous political alienation. On the international scene the West has retreated from the concept of international law and, heady with the temporary unipolar US military dominance, adopted aggressive might is right polices and a return of the practices of both formal and informal imperialism.
But every single one of those things is true of Putin’s Russia, and in fact it is much worse. Wealth inequality is even more extreme. Toleration of dissent and of different lifestyles even less evident, the space for debate even more constricted, the contempt for international law still more pronounced. Putin’s own desire for imperialist sphere of influence politics leads him into conflict with aggressive designs of the west, as for example in Syria and Iran. The consequence can be an accidental good, in that Putin has thwarted western military plans. But that is not in any sense from a desire for public good, and if Putin can himself get away with military force he does. His conflicts of interest with the west have deluded a surprising number of people here into believing that Putin in some ways represents an ideological alternative. He does not. He represents a capitalism still more raw, an oligarchy still more corrupt, a wealth gap still greater and growing still quicker, a debate still more circumscribed. It speaks to the extreme political failure of the western political system, and the degree of the alienation of which I spoke, that so many strive to see something beautiful in the ugly features of Putinism.
antanaclasis…..had to look it up.
“”Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana”
That’s not what this is about”
Nope. It’s a Putinesca sauce for the pasta.
Chris Jones, me neither. I’m not a defender of all things Russian. In fact Yanukovich having gold taps, a luxury yacht and private zoo disgusts me. It makes me think of Tony Blair and the Queen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8AYzc_Q9Us
Right. Done.
Now what about Puerto Rico.
Perhaps the Russians can advise on that.
“Now what about Puerto Rico.” The US rarely gives up turf unless for economic reasons.
Bases in Germany, Japan, Korea and Iraq needed for global activity.
I said some would not like hearing the result.
‘With polls closed, it is reported there was a turnout of more than 80%, with around 93% voting in favour of union with Russia.’
‘In a statement, the White House said: “As the United States and our allies have made clear, military intervention and violation of international law will bring increasing costs for Russia – not only due to measures imposed by the United States and our allies but also as a direct result of Russia’s own destabilising actions.
“In this century, we are long past the days when the international community will stand quietly by while one country forcibly seizes the territory of another.”
Foreign Secretary William Hague also said the UK would not recognise the outcome.
He said: “I condemn the fact that this referendum has taken place, in breach of the Ukrainian constitution and in defiance of calls by the international community for restraint.
“Nothing in the way that the referendum has been conducted should convince anyone that it is a legitimate exercise.
“It is a mockery of proper democratic practice.”
He believed measures were needed to “send a strong signal to Russia that this challenge to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia will bring economic and political consequences.
Mr Hague added: “Furthermore, any attempt by the Russian Federation to use the referendum as an excuse to annex the Crimea, or to take further action on Ukrainian territory, would be unacceptable.”‘
I am sure President Putin is shaking in terror.
http://news.sky.com/story/1226921/crimea-referendum-poll-93-percent-vote-for-russia
Who was the greater enemy of the Public, Al Capone or J. Edgar Hoover?
Viva la differance !!!
@Chris – I think it can be useful to bring up Budapest 1956 if people then do some proper comparing and contrasting. In Budapest, secret police snipers killed ordinary police officers. The ordinary police responded by killing massed unarmed demonstrators. There is surely a lesson there. It is remarkable that so few commentators outside of the Ukraine are even mentioning the Ukrainian secret police, the SBU, which some call the ‘FSBU’ because of how closely it has worked with the Russian FSB.
My view is that Russia overplayed its hand with the economic agreement, and that it then recogised that fact and decided to consolidate and fast. If they hadn’t, of course the putschists would have tried to create ‘facts on the ground’ (in current parlance) in the Crimea. Psychological warfare to that end had certainly already started.
To recognise all of that, one doesn’t have to be the sort of person who insists that the only reason that Germany invaded the Sudetenland was to protect Germans.
The rulers of Russia don’t want US warships in Sevastopol and they don’t want the Black Sea to become a US lake. I think they would be willing to fight a nuclear war to stop that.
I have been pleased that despite the obscene yearning in the British and western media for incidents to occur in the Ukraine which are then followed by a hot and large-scale military confrontation (why? a chance to showcase weapons, as in Georgia? reasons of wider strategy? or getting pieces into the right position for an imminent western financial collapse?), this hasn’t yet occurred.
Thanks for that Mary. I had a good laugh. Especially the US saying: “In this century, we are long past the days when the international community will stand quietly by while one country forcibly seizes the territory of another.”
So was that reserved for Iraq and Libya? Or does it go back to Hawaii? I guess Hawaii is so close to the coast of the US it is seen as being considered geographical territory. Hmm!
” (why? a chance to showcase weapons, as in Georgia? reasons of wider strategy? or getting pieces into the right position for an imminent western financial collapse?), ”
Or padding the taxpayer bill by replenishing ordnance inventories?
RD – my “backward Islamist friends” would like to share a link with you:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10700652/Malaysia-Airline-MH370-911-style-terror-allegations-resurface-in-case-of-lost-plane.html
@N_ It’s relevant in that most of history is relevant then..?
William Hague, Cameron and the US ‘leaders’ have all lost every single jot of credibility – they are simply a nightmareish collection of insane clowns spouting out a constant spew of toxic nonsense. They have gone passed the point of satire – the most hideous spitting image characterisation of these people would be pointless and would never be far fetched or garish enough to do them justice.
When will this horrible pantomime end? and how can we draw the curtains on the act and put the horrible puppets away in a secured room?
Hold on, hold on. Although many aspects of the UK government have me frothing with fury, the UK did actually have a vote about whether to bomb Syria or not. Was that not a good thing, and a better thing that the warmongers lost?
“CAUSE A NEW IRON CURTAIN TO FALL ON EUROPE
And we have seen nothing of what Washington and Brussels would be capable of in this area. The Ukrainian crisis was probably triggered for no other reason than, ultimately, to force us to buy US shale gas (13), to sign the TTIP (without which the former can’t be sold in Europe (14)) and to justify a renewed increase of American-NATO military budgets (15) thanks to the restarting of a Cold War between the West and emerging nations (except for this detail that it’s the West which will be on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain this time).”
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-83-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-escalation-in-the-US-reaction-for-survival-trigger-a-cold-war-to-make-it_a15801.html
The transponders were also turned off on 9/11, Mark.
The mystery deepens when you remember that planes can still be tracked via radar, but their descriptors would not show. This goes DOUBLE for military radar.
@Technicolour That was a close escape and purely down to people power/overwhelming pressure from the electorate telling their MP’s to say ‘NO’ in my view. Without it most of those would have been happy to go along with another illegal attack..
TTIP was to be the end-run around BRICS, someone, because the Petrodollar must not die. Gas shipped to Europe must be by ship and the US has few ports set up for CNG, but they are furiously working on it. If a choice had to be made, preserving the status of the dollar holds sway, IMO.
Little summary of mad western leftie normative approach.
US invades Afghanistan – is bad
US invades Iraq – is bad
Russia supports Karimov (after bloody murder of hundreds of innocent people) – is bad but not enough to condemn Putin, because he generally is good guy
Russia invades Georgia – is GOOD as Georgian (according to Russian propaganda) shelled innocent Osetians
Russia invades Ukraine – is GOOOOOOOOD as Ukrainians who in fact have finally decided to overthrow Putin’s suck-puppet and elect president that will care about Ukrainian interests (after 23 years of formal independence from Russia). But thanks to Putin’s propoganda that is the ONLY source of truth for western mad lefties Ukraine is run by fascists just like referendum posters show in Crimea.
So death of Muslim Afghans and Iraqis is not accepotable but death of Muslim Uzbeks, Chechens and Dagestanians is quite acceptable, because Putin is a good guy.
British Empire is bad, Russian empire (which is much elder than British empire and outlived the former) is good, because Putin is a good guy.
Bending international law by US is bad, but bending internal law by Russia is good, because Putin is a good guy.
Use of military force by US is bad, but covert Russian military operation (after all Putin accepted presence of Russian military in Crimea in conversation with Crimea Tatar leader in Kremlin), because Putin is a good guy.
Intimidation by US is bad, intimidation by Russia (of every former soviet republic) is good, because Putin is a good guy.
So, if only Putin sticks to his anti-western rhetoric, everything is acceptable for mad western lefties. Their enemy is in fact not inequality (which in Russia is times grater than in Europe), not denial of Human Rights (Human Rights in Russia is suppressed to lowest since 1991), not authoritarianism (democrat in modern Russia is abusive word), not imperialism (interventions to Georgia and Ukraine confirms Russian imperial missions). Their enemy is west. Everything and everyone who oppose the west is a good guy. And everything is acceptable if done by a good guy.
And now spit your mad leftie bile.
@ Chris Jones – well, yes. Democracy, as we know it, worked, though still nothing to be complacent about.
Craig; “the point is whether the will of the people has been affected by military demonstration, fear, hysterically induced national psychosis and above all an absence of space for debate or alternative viewpoints”
The will of the people have indeed been affected, by the Coup in the Ukraine, by the sort who have been put themselves in power in Kiev, and by the animosity directed at them as signaled by the attempted ban on the Russian language; on a general point, are elections held in times of crises, or during war, not valid ?
“I never saw a single instance of Germany having any interest in rights other than its own national self-interest.
That is such a non-point, as you can substitute Germany with a host of other countries.
“It is very likely such a genuine referendum would have gone in Russia’s favour”
So if you believe that, you have to admit that the right result was delivered today.
“But the disadvantages of open debate about the merits and demerits of Putin’s Russia, and his own self-image as the man of military prowess, led Putin to take the more violent course”
Nice Conspiracy Theory; so Putin is afraid that he will come worse off in any comparison to the perceived Western Fascists Stooges !
“perhaps with the aim of promoting civil war in which Russia can covertly intervene, rather than open invasion, but I do not put the latter past him”
That’s odd, didn’t you recently start a Post with the opening line “By sending troops into the Ukraine, (others than those stationed there by agreement) Putin has broken international law” ? You really do seem to be in a bit of two minds as to whatever Russia has invaded the Ukraine or not !
“I believe western democracy, particularly in its social democratic European manifestation from approximately 1945 to 2000, achieved a high level of happiness for its ordinary people and an encouraging level of equality”
I guess that the never ending war against the Third World escaped your notice, unless of course you think that us Westerners enjoying a decent standard of living at the murderous expense & ruthless exploitation of both other people & natural resources is our God given right, so doesn’t count as a cost.
“Putin’s own desire for imperialist sphere of influence politics leads him into conflict with aggressive designs of the west, as for example in Syria and Iran”
Rather than Putin’s desire that Russia doesn’t end-up like Yugoslavia, or Iraq ?
“It speaks to the extreme political failure of the western political system, and the degree of the alienation of which I spoke, that so many strive to see something beautiful in the ugly features of Putinism”
I would suggest that you are imagining that the people who are understanding the realpolitik non-choices Putin has been forced to make, are also admiring his warts.
I am convinced that not many of mad western lefties believe in historical evidences of Holocaust (judging this by too many anti-Semitic posts here), and it is ,most likely waste of time to convince them of historical evidence of genocide against Chechens and Crimea Tatars (by Russia). It is very convenient to remove settled population to certain difficulties and (for many) certain death, and 70 years after allow (very different) settles population to vote on a matter of national loyalty.
Centuries pass, people and cultures change but one truth remain. If one does not have enough power to deny the other temptation of conquer and submission, one will loose his land, his self and his life. Post 1945 world is finaly coming to existence.
Western liberal social democratic (as Mr Murray highlighted it) order is coming to an end. The future is for powerful and intimidating nations. The ones who will have power to conquer and submit the others. Those who are not prepared be ready to give up your land, your self and your life.
Flight 370 ended up in mainland China, according to flight aware.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370
Uzbek in the UK
“Russia invades Ukraine – is GOOOOOOOOD as Ukrainians who in fact have finally decided to overthrow Putin’s suck-puppet and elect president that will care about Ukrainian interests (after 23 years of formal independence from Russia). But thanks to Putin’s propoganda that is the ONLY source of truth for western mad lefties Ukraine is run by fascists just like referendum posters show in Crimea.”
Sorry, I try to keep explaining that the Ukraine is not Uzbekistan. It does not have a single dictator. It has changes of government. The Fascist government, last but one, is the same one that is being backed by the west now. Why? You might ask.
http://scgnews.com/the-ukraine-crisis-what-youre-not-being-told
Our precious bodily fluids…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY
This is the only answer I can give Uzbek.
TonyM; “Is NATO a military organisation? Yes.”
“Is it moving towards Russia’s borders. Yes.”
That’s the realpolitik bottom line, all else is ideological &/or prejudicial point scoring.
You shouldn’t be too surprised at the “numerous pro-establishment trolls” afflicting this Blog, because not only do they get so bored spouting bile to each other at Sites like Harry’s Place, that they come here hoping to pass themselves off and get accepted as serious commentators , but also Craig does unfortunately seem to share some of the same irrationality that they thrive on, especially Russophobia, and that deluded belief that Westerners who criticize their Governments criminality, are motived by self-hatred !!
“that deluded belief that Westerners who criticize their Governments criminality, are motived by self-hatred !!”
Come again? You’re saying that Craig, who openly and under his own name, has made a track record of criticising UK governments’ criminality, has the ‘deluded belief that Westerners…blah blah blah’?
Time for bed.
Macky
If all that counts is realpolitik, and it is just two military powers squaring up to one another, why do you choose to support one of them?
“You shouldn’t be too surprised at the “numerous pro-establishment trolls” afflicting this Blog, because not only do they get so bored spouting bile to each other at Sites like Harry’s Place, that they come here hoping to pass themselves off and get accepted as serious commentators , but also Craig does unfortunately seem to share some of the same irrationality that they thrive on, especially Russophobia, and that deluded belief that Westerners who criticize their Governments criminality, are motived by self-hatred !!”
Well I hoped that made you feel better – I really have no idea as to your motivations but please rest assured that my dislike of Putin is driven by a love of Russia and Russians rather than any phobia – and like Craig I believe that they belong with the Ukrainians as part of the European family of nations.
What has happened to Ukraine’s gold reserves? Bearing in mind that the US is bankrupt, and that the week before the gold reserves were apparently stolen by the Yanks acting prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk accused the Yanukovich government of having stolen the gold reserves.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraines-gold…/5373446
Critique has a role, but I prefer if people proffer something beside that lazy methodology. JMO, of course. I don’t want charges of ‘dicktator’ to emerge as a diversion.