Add together the cities of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Lugansk and you don’t reach the economic output of Dundee. World domination it isn’t. Unfortunately both in the Kremlin and on Capitol Hill they, and their satraps, think it is. Neither side cares at all about the millions of ordinary people in the zone of potential conflict.
The spiral of death in Ukraine is very worrying. Following the tragic deaths in Odessa, the ball is very much in Putin’s court. His bluff has very much been called. We will now learn whether he was stoking clashes in Eastern Ukraine and massing forces on his border in order to give a pretext for invasion – which pretext he now has – or in order to destabilize and intimidate Kiev into moving away from relationships with the EU.
This has been a discussion of the deaf even more within intellectual circles in the West than between Washington and the Kremlin, where at least the Machiavellians understand full well what they are doing. But their followers either, on the one hand, deny that there are any far right elements on the Ukrainian side or any CIA assistance, or alternatively deny that there are many millions of ordinary Ukrainians who genuinely want to be at peace in their own country and move towards the EU. They either claim that all the separatists are Russian agents and deny the genuine minority population which yearns for the Soviet Union or Russia, or they deny the existence of Russian agents and special forces in Ukraine, and that most of the Russian nationalists are every bit as right wing and appalling as the equivalent tendency on the Ukrainian side.
First, some history. The Ukrainian people really do exist. They have been a subjugated people for centuries, most lastingly by the great Polish-Lithuanian Empire and then by the Russian Empire. That does not mean they did not exist. Consider this: until 1990 there had not been an independent Polish state for over two hundred years, except for a fleeting twenty years between the two world wars. Yet nobody doubts the Poles are a real nation. I shan’t start on Scotland again …
None of modern Ukraine was Russian until the 18th century, when the expansion of the Russian empire and decline of the Polish took in these new colonies. As Putin famously remarked, it was called New Russia. Yes, Vladimir, note it was New. That is because it was a colony. Just like New York. Because it was called New Russia gives you no more right to it than the Channel Islands have to New Jersey. Ukraine had been Russian seven hundred years before its 18th century reconquest, but that population had migrated to Muscovy.
The expansion of the Russian Empire was exactly contemporary with the expansion of the British and American Empires, and other bit players like the French. Like most of the American, most of the Russian Empire was a contiguous land mass. The difference between the Russian and British Empires, on the one hand, and the American Empire on the other, was that the Russians and British did not commit genocide of the existing populations. The difference between the Russian and the British Empires is that the British gave almost all of theirs back in the post-colonial period (a process that needs to be urgently completed). Russia gave back much of her Empire at the fall of the Soviet Union, but still retained a very great deal more than the British. It is to me inarguable that, in a historical perspective, Putin is attempting to recover as much of the Russian Empire as possible, including but by no means solely by the annexation of Crimea and his actions in Ukraine.
Crimea, incidentally, had maintained its own independent existence as the last remnant of the Mongol Horde right up until the 19th century. Despite the Russian colonisation of Crimea in the 19th century, it still had a majority Tatar population until the 1940’s, when Stalin tried his hand at genocide on them. The Tatars were branded Nazis. Opponents of the Russian Empire are always “Nazis” or “Jihadists”. The deportation of the Tatars from Crimea was only twenty years before the British did the same genocide to a smaller people in Diego Garcia. I call for the restitution of both. Those who call for the restitution of one and not the other are appalling hypocrites.
Equally hypocritical are those who call for a referendum on Russian union for East Ukraine, but not for referenda on independence for Dagestan and Chechnya. It is an irony insufficiently noted, that in Russia to call or campaign for the separation of any part of the state is a crime punishable by up to 22 years’ imprisonment. There are over 7,000 people from the Caucasus imprisoned under that law.
There is absolutely no movement among the large minority Russians of the Baltic States to rejoin Mother Russia, because living conditions in the EU are just so much better. As I have blogged before, it is undeniably true that living conditions for ordinary people in Poland have vastly improved as a result of EU membership, and are much better than in Ukraine – or Russia.
GDP per capita figures for Russia look quite good, but do not give a true reflection of living standards because of astonishing levels of inequality of wealth. This is very bad in the West, and getting much worse rather rapidly, but is nowhere near as bad as in Russia which is the most viciously capitalist state in the world, made worse by its commodity dependency. The Russian economy is completely non-diversified, manufacturing and services are miniscule and it is overwhelmingly a raw commodity exporter in energy, metals, grain etc. That leads to extreme concentration of profit and a lack of employment opportunity. Combine that with mafia state corruption and you have the oligarchs’ paradise. Russia is a gangster state. On top of which, if I were a Russian who campaigned against the Russian government in the same way that I do against my own, I would be dead.
The desire of ordinary Ukrainians to join the EU one day, and move closer to it now, is understandable and indeed commendable. It was also the desire of Yanukovich. Those who claim Western pressure on Yanukovich forget – or choose to ignore – that Yanukovich’s government had actually, quite independently and voluntarily, negotiated the EU co-operation agreement and were on the point of signing it, when Yanukovich was summoned to Moscow by Putin and informed that if they signed the agreement, the energy supplies to Ukraine would immediately be cut off in mid-winter and debt called in.
That is a fact. It was not illegal for Putin to do that; it was perhaps even legitimate for those who believe in a Machiavellian approach to great power politics. Yanukovich temporized, between a rock and a hard place. Ukraine seemed to be at a key moment of balance, hung between the EU and Russia. The capital being in West Ukraine and overwhelmingly ethnic Ukrainian, pro-EU crowds started to build up. Then things started to get wildly out of control.
Were western governments encouraging pro-western groups in Ukraine? Yes, that’s their job. Did this include covert support? Yes. Were the Russians doing precisely the same thing with their supporters? Yes, that’s their job too. Did the Americans spend 5 billion dollars on covert support? Of course not.
Victoria Nuland claimed in a speech America had put 5 billion dollars into Ukraine. I used to write those kind of speeches for British ministers. First you take every bit of money given by USAID to anything over a very long period, remembering to add an estimate for money given to international projects including Ukraine. Don’t forget to add huge staff costs and overheads, then something vast for your share of money lent by the IMF and EBRD, then round it up well. I can write you a speech claiming that Britain has given five billion dollars to pretty well anywhere you claim to name.
The problem is that both the left and right have again, equal but opposite motives for believing Nuland’s bombast about the extent of America’s influence on events. I have been in this game. You can’t start a revolution in another country. You can affect it at the margins.
A military coup you certainly can start. One thing we don’t really know nearly enough about is what happened at the end, when Yankovich had to flee. The Maidan protestors would never have caused a government to fall which retained full control of its army. The army can fail the rulers in two ways. First is a revolutionary movement among normal soldiers – the French revolution model. Second is where the troops remain disciplined but follow their officers in a military coup. The latter is of course a CIA speciality. More evidence is needed, but if this is the second model, it is unusual for it not to result in military control of government. Egypt is the obvious current example of a CIA backed coup.
After Yanukovich we had entered the world domination game. Putin seemed to have lost. The annexation of Crimea was a smart move by Putin in that game, because there probably is a genuine small majority of the population there who would like to join Russia. I have no doubt whatsoever that Putin himself does not believe the 93% for a moment. As I said, the Machiavellian players of world domination are realistic; it is their purblind followers on either side who buy their propaganda.
The Kiev government and the West should have conceded Crimea before Putin moved his troops into it. The sensible thing for the new Kiev government to have done would have been to offer a referendum in Crimea itself, under its own auspices. That would have got the most hardline pro-Russian voters out of the country for good. But by that time, everyone had gone into Macho mode, which is where we still are.
None of the remaining provinces would opt to join Russia given the choice. There is no shortage of existing and historic opinion poll evidence on that. Crimea was the only province with an ethnic Russian majority. The Eastern provinces have Russian speaking majorities, but most are ethnic Ukrainian. I base ethnicity here purely on self-identification in census (and, as I have repeatedly explained, absolutely everybody in the former Soviet Union knows precisely what is asked in the questions of Gradzvanstvo and Narodnosch). Just as some Welsh people speak English, some Ukrainians speak Russian but do not consider themselves Russian. Putin’s frequent references to the Russian-speaking peoples coming back to Russia are as sinister as if we started talking of re-uniting all the English speaking people in the world.
As almost always with colonies, the minority ethnic Russian populations in the East of Ukraine are more concentrated in urban areas. Hence it has been possible in regional capitals to mobilise gangs of disaffected and unemployed Russian young men (in view of Ukraine’s basket case economy there are plenty), and with a slight stiffening of Russian forces take control of town centres. There is a significant minority, and possibly a majority in town centres, willing to support. It is, I think, extremely important to understand that the thugs on both sides are very unpleasant. I have the particular experience of relations with a lot of Uzbeks, and the incidence of racial attacks by Russian nationalist thugs within Russia itself is absolutely horrifying and almost completely unreported. The swastika is a popular symbol among young macho men throughout all of former Eastern Europe including Russia. I absolutely guarantee you that an equally significant proportion of the pro-Russians who have been attacking anyone who tries to show support for Ukraine within Eastern Ukrainian cities, are no more and no less right wing, racist and vicious than the appalling Pravy Sektor thugs included on the other side. We have plenty within the EU – there is a serious problem, for example, with the official encouragement given to commemorations of pro-Nazi forces within the Baltic states which often have a distinctly neo-Nazi tinge.
Putin’s campaign of controlling the urban centres appears to have gone wrong in Odessa, which is simply too large for the numbers of available young men armed with baseball bats to take control. The pro-Russians were badly beaten in precisely the same street fighting they had been winning elsewhere. The culmination of this was the terrible fire and deaths. My expectation is there will not be many women, children or old people among the dead, but also there will not be many non-Ukrainian nationals. I expect these will prove to have been local Russian young men.
Putin now has a real problem. His own rhetoric has indicated that he will sweep in and defend these Russians, but there is one thing anyone with half a brain should have worked out by now. The ruling 1%, the ultra-wealthy, in both Russia and the West are so interconnected with each other that they are playing the game of world domination while trying at the same time to make sure nobody super-rich really loses his money. Hence the strange obviously bogus sanctions regimes. Real stock market disruption and confiscation of corrupt assets would be difficult to avoid if the tanks start rolling in earnest. We may be saved from utter disaster by the sheer scale of global corruption, which is a strange conclusion.
I would like to think the awful deaths of the last few days would lead both sides to step back from the brink. The time has come for a peacekeeping force. Negotiations should be held urgently to make the Kiev interim government more inclusive of opposition elements from the East – and they must oust the far right at the same time. The UN Security Council should then send in UN peacekeepers, which must include both Russian and western forces in close integration, to keep the peace while genuine elections are held. I can see no other way forward which does not risk disaster.
Dreoilin; Obama is nothing, if not self-deprecatory in his humor. It seems to play into his hands.
When I lived in Romania you could tell the market traders who came from Moldova because they all spoke Russian to one another. I gave one of them a copy of Bunin’s “хорошая жизнь” (The Good Life) because it is a short story about a woman who opened a shop. She told me later how much she had enjoyed it.
There is also an area in Bucharest called Bassarabia, not far from Gare de Nord, which it would seem takes its name from that region of Moldova with the same name. Now in Romania the older generation were taught Russian but after Ceausescu nobody, or very few, learnt it. That was how it was easy to tell the difference between Romanians and Moldovans. Today, I think you will find that Russian is still widely spoken in Moldova.
Lucy:
I’m pretty sure G.S.W. stands for gun shot wound. Where is that list sourced from btw?
Forget history. I firmly believe Russian or NATO tanks will not roll into Ukraine. The Ukraine Putsch was more about the West gaining control in Syria as I suggested in an earlier post and now witnessed in a cavalier antiseptic piece by Anne-Marie Slaughter:
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/anne-marie-slaughter-on-how-us-intervention-in-the-syrian-civil-war-would-alter-vladimir-putin-s-calculus-in-ukraine
The best way forward is to admonish and burn into the memories of so many main stream exceptionalist, group thinking ‘zombies’ the recent history of Iraq.
Those who forget or fail to grasp the U.S. corporate media’s regurgitation of the manifold and manifestly deceitful justifications for U.S. actions abroad.
Let these brain-washed empty suits visit Fallujah, a town in dispensable Iraq. Let them witness the increases in the incidence of cancer, especially childhood leukemia, as well as a broad spectrum of birth defects like congenital heart disease, spina bifida and hydrocephalus.
“Putin bad; Putin very bad. Shame on him; he sometimes has no shirt on, even on a horse. Bad, bad Putin.”
Mark; It’s amazing to me how few see the connection between Sevastapol and Tartus.
I think its via Andre Fomine at Oriental Review you can find him on facebook
Cheeba Its from the South Front page on facebook prepare yourself for some gruesome pics
WHAT DOES THE US WANT IN UKRAINE – PEACE OR WAR?
“It is the function of the CIA to keep the world unstable, and to propagandize and teach the American people to hate, so we will let the Establishment spend any amount of money on arms.”– John Stockwell, former CIA official and author
Note: John Stockwell was station chief in Southern Africa at the time the Cubans sent troops to help liberate South Africa and destroy the Apartheid system – so he should know what he is talking about.
At present Zbigniew Brzezinski in his recent article “What Obama Should Tell Americans About Ukraine”says, inter alia, this about the Ukraine crisis:-
“Obama should convey clearly to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the United States is prepared to use its influence to ensure that a truly independent and territorially undivided Ukraine pursues policies toward Russia similar to those so effectively practiced by Finland: mutually respectful neighbors, wide-ranging economic relations both with Russia and the European Union, but no participation in any military alliance viewed by Moscow as directed at itself – while also expanding its European connectivity. The Finnish model may be the ideal example for Ukraine, the EU and Russia.”
Brzezinski ostensibly does not want a situation to escalate with Russia to the point where there is another Cuban Missile crisis situation. However he fails to ask himself some simple and logical questions by parity of reasoning:-
1. Would the US tolerate missiles being placed on its backdoor in Mexico – or – again in Cuba? This is the parallel situation where if Ukraine becomes a NATO member – then the Ukraine is thereby committed to potential belligerent support of NATO – or – might take offensive action against Russia – backed by NATO?
2. When a man like Henry Kissinger – or – Zbigniew Brzezinski uses the phrase, “ a threat to the international system” – are they not really saying “ a threat to a banking system raping the world and steadily falling into disfavor with Americans who are out of a job” – or – “a threat to the power balance where the US and Israel dominate and a group of bankers dictate to the lesser mortals around the world”?
3. When a man like Brzezinski in his article ( quoted above) states further, “”Above all the president must clarify why we cannot tolerate an international system in which countries are invaded by thugs and destabilized from abroad” …
Was/is it not the US which had fabricated the facts to fit the war in Iraq; is at war in Afghanistan; is busy destabilizing Venezuela; supports a proxy war in Syria; destroyed Libya; and – since the first successful CIA led coup in Iran – has been time and time again interfering in or destroying countries futures in places such as the Philippines, Chile and on and on and on. Just beautiful! So with that kind of track record – what is the true motive of the US in Ukraine?
Are we all brain dead – or- is the US position on Ukraine likely to be any different than what has transpired before? And here is the same Brzezinski who supported the Mujahidin ( which morphed into the Taliban):-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaiJtLrEwVU
Remember – as Brzezinski reminds us – it is “ a deep belief in God” that keeps these wasteful and wicked wars going.
What a way to run a peaceful world!
Idiotic warmongers!
CB
Footnote: Published here in Sweden: http://parnassen.wordpress.com/2014/05/04/peace-or-war-what-does-the-us-want-in-ukraine-brzezinski-har-svaret/#comments
PS. And this is a fairly level headed and accurate analysis of the Ukrainian crisis worth listening to, if a better understanding is desired:-
http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-871-geneva-business-insider-with-david-smith/
“Today, I think you will find that Russian is still widely spoken in Moldova.”
That is not the same as saying it is spoken more than Moldovan or that Moldova is strongly pro Russian – as you know all too well.
If you were such an expert then you should be able to provide definitive and current answers to my questions.
Mary
“Ref http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/05/world-domination/#comment-455925
Has the thought occurred that Obama might – might just – have been LAUGHING IN OUR FACES?????”
_______________________
Well, that thought obviously occurred to you, which is why you posted your original comment.
And the thought that occurred to me was that Obama may have been making a joke at his own expense.
You see, Mary, some people – I don’t count you among them of course – have a sense of humour.
And now get back into that jar of pickling vinegar! 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbeUmpQ_4nU
Mary has a refined sense of humor which doesn’t include laughing about Obama’s disingenous operations. Others laugh at n***** jokes displaying their misanthropic bona fides.
Look closely especially at 5-7 seconds in – left side.
the Lemniscat
@theLemniscat
#WTF?
Israeli citizen Kolomoisky, coup-Gov of Dnipropetrovsk sets a bounty for hunting “separatists” #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/hK2G5RQ6IS
Ethnicity, aside; Guardian has the details, Dre.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukrainian-oligarch-offers-financial-rewards-russians-igor-kolomoisky
“If you were such an expert then you should be able to provide definitive and current answers to my questions.”
_________________
The real answer, Resident Dissident, is that John Goss – truly the Insolent Squatter – has no expertise at all in matters Eastern European or Russian. Apart, of course, from some knowledge of the language, a good indoctrination in Marxist thought and (possibly) a couple of cycling tours in the region.
What he does have, however, is an unerring ability to get his facts wrong, to swallow everything put out by RT (for example), to produce red herrings, straw men and ad hominems and to divert as soon as he has his back against the wall in any discussion. He is, in essence, a bad (and sad) case of the phenomenon George Orwell so cleverly identified as “transferred nationalism”. He is simply incorrigible (in the true sense of that word).
Hope that helps!
Squonk Yes I can see it its very clear what is happening in that video
I’ll try and make that clickable
pic.twitter.com/hK2G5RQ6IS
https://twitter.com/theLemniscat/status/462959591823646722
Have just spotted this one from Mr Goss:
“Odessa is not far from Moldova, which is strongly pro-Russian, and may even cede to Russia before too long.”
__________________________
Yes, which is presumably why Moldova (with strong support from Romania) has ambitions to move closer to and eventually join the European Union?
The man really is a mendacious fool.
“If you were such an expert then you should be able to provide definitive and current answers to my questions.”
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/04/the-apartheid-israel-poison-is-out/#comment-455947
RD, since they are your questions, and you obviously have answers to them, why don’t you share them. I did not ask you:
“How can you tell the difference between Moldovan and Romanian market traders in Romania”. I gave you the reason. Perhaps you would like to do the same.
As to speaking Russian in Moldova all my Moldovan friends do. They also speak Romanian. I think you will find more speaking Romanian towards the Romanian border, more speaking Russian towards the Ukrainian border.
Hope this helps.
I’ve just turned Habbabreak on. I wonder why people take a break from this twat from time to time.
Channel 4 News in 30 minutes.
https://twitter.com/lindseyhilsum
Lindsey Hilsum @lindseyhilsum 10m
Reporting from @Donetsk @channel4news tonight including extraordinary scenes shot in #Odessa. Early time: 6.30pm
What a magic piece of software. Thank you Afrend.
What proportion of the population of Moldova is Russian?
What are the other 73% of Chisinau?
Why is it now Chisinau rather than Chisinov?
What is the main language in Moldova?
To what other European language is it closely related?
Which members of the United Nations recognise Transdnistria as a separate state (Mr Goss obviously does – probably as it is the last Stalinist enclave within Europe and therefore a good thing in the eyes of himself and Putin) ?
How does having 27% of the population in the capital equate to the entire country being strongly pro Russian?
To which country does Moldova always give 12 points in Eurovision?
Is the US hiding the Malaysian Airlines plane in the Rezina limestone quarry?
1 Depends whether you include Transnistria or not.Theres quite a lot of Ukranians ,a
large Roma population and a few Bulgarian villages.There is also Gaugaziz which is semi autonomous Gaugazians are a Turkic people.
2 Id imagine your looking for Romanian as an answer they might call themselves Moldovans .People mix in cities not everyone is narrow minded .
3 Looks like a change from the Russian to the Moldavian spelling.
4 Moldavian ….artificial language to manufacture a Moldavian identity during Moldavianisation its Romanian essentially .
5 see above
6 Smirnoffs gone the new administration which includes the gorgeous Nina Shtanski is not Stalinist.”Its not communist its in-between” source Moldavian peasant from a Ukranian speaking village founded by Cossacks .
Transnistria is recognised by South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabash if it had a US base rather than a Soviet one it would be recognised by USA,Israel and Palau within minutes the rest to follow.It was never part of Romania which would have a better claim to Bessarabia.Moldavia had an elected communist government I take it you prefer the Iron Guard?
7 It doesn’t though Gagauzia likewise would like to trade with Russia and people are frightened of a revived fascism.
8 Dont know 1/100 Romania,100/1 bar
9 Definitely
“How can you tell the difference between Moldovan and Romanian market traders in Romania”. I gave you the reason. Perhaps you would like to do the same.
Perhaps you couldn’t tell the difference between the market traders speaking Moldovan and those speaking Romanian as the two tongues are pretty similar, but not identical as most Moldovans will tell you.
I think I will leave you to answer my questions – I would like to give you the benefit of realising and correcting your original error. To say that a whole country wishes to cede to Russia based upon your market trader anectdote from many years ago when Moldova was part of the Soviet Empire and you were providing financial support to the egregious Ceausecu really doesn’t constitute evidence of even the most basic kind.
Courtney, thanks for that lawyer’s analysis, which is difficult to argue against.
AlcAnon/Squonk, thanks for the forthcoming Lindsey Hilsum report at 6.30 p.m. reporting from Donetsk on Channel 4. With the footage from Odessa there will hopefully be less bias than the BBC which describes the pro-Russians as ‘rebels’ despite the good guys being an unelected government.
“Moldavia had an elected communist government I take it you prefer the Iron Guard?”
Don’t be stupid – and would you care to speculate what its stance would be on ceding to Russia?
“Perhaps you couldn’t tell the difference between the market traders speaking Moldovan and those speaking Romanian as the two tongues are pretty similar, but not identical as most Moldovans will tell you.”
You’re wrong again. The only difference is guttural inflection and a few odd words which might even be described as an accent, like Geordie for example.