When the push polling has to stop 211

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YouGov stood to have its reputation shattered if it continued to put out polls showing ten point leads for No, when Yes is very obviously headed for a majority.

Those massive YouGov leads for No were all part of the Unionist tactic of making independence appear both uniquely impossible to Scotland, as opposed to any other small nation state you can name, and an unattainable dream. Too poor, too wee, too stupid and politically isolated. YouGov are known in the trade as “You Can Have Any Result You Pay For Gov”. For months, James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop blog has brilliantly analysed the methodologies they employed to give those large No leads – asking prior leading questions, a large preponderance of Labour voters in their panel, and the “Kellner Correction” – an assumption that lies or faulty memory about how people last voted, would penalise Labour unless corrected for statistically. The result was YouGov polls that were great reading for the No camp, but made no sense whatsever to anybody who had talked to voters.

My own view is that there has not been an extraordinary 12 point swing in a fortnight, as illustrated by YouGov’s last two polls. What there has been is a continuing stead swing and a realisation in YouGov that, having helped the No campaign for over a year by trying to make a Yes vote seem hopeless, to be over 12% out on this vital vote might damage YouGov’s share price fatally. So they have had to start publishing something close to the truth.

As I have been reporting, the truth has been very obvious to people on the ground for weeks. And the truth is not only that independence is coming, but that the entire political class, BBC and mainstream media has been rejected, and a new form of popular power, based on community democracy and social media, has taken over.

I received an invite from the National Library of Scotland to a post-referendum debrief at 9am on 19 September. Anybody sober at 9am on 19 September (unless having medical excuse) is not part of the New Scotland. But more crucially, the panel includes Henry McLeish and Michael Moore – and they want people to pay 35 pounds to listen to their words of wisdom.

They really haven’t got it yet. Nobody will ever care what Moore and McLeish and their like have to say again, and the kind of democracy we will have will not involve paying substantial sums to hear pearls of wisdom drop from troughers on a pedestal. Nor will members of the old political establishment have a future in that career. It was a good tactic for Alex Salmond to say that Darling and Carmichael will be on the negotiating team: the people will not allow it to happen.

There is at last some understanding that Yes will win: the penny has not yet dropped that this is a revolutionary moment, not a polite constitutional shuffle.

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211 thoughts on “When the push polling has to stop”

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  • nevermind, Scotland will be free

    Radio 4’s Toady programme, not a mistake, is in panic mode, BBC and political establishment alight with last minute bribes from Osborne, interviews with Darling, anything to talk down a possible yes win some more.
    They have not learned from their own failed campaign, their negativity and false scares, now they deserve every last drop of scorn they get.

    You’ve made many an interview early in the morning, sporting odd socks, you could make a 9am date, but heck, who deserves to get up for a panel like that? MCLeish?

  • DoNNyDarKo

    Another reason to vote Yes to leave the UK is National Service.
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2013-2014/0032/14032.pdf
    Our policies abroad are so unpopular at home,we have problems keeping the amount of canon fodder our Govt wants.This is the kind of nationalism we do not need.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4HDt9PUkeI
    Notice the flags,the threats,and the denial that we have anything to do with ISIS,despite our country being responsible for the instability in the region,then arming and training the same people we now describe as the greatest threat to our country.
    Obviously we need to have two aircraft carriers and conscription to fill them so we can begin to export democracy to those oil and mineral rich regions of the planet.
    Conscription ??? And its on its second reading.I just heard about it this morning.

  • AAMVN

    I expect the quality of ‘Scottishness’ to become less important in an independent Scotland – perhaps not immediately but over time. The need to constantly flaunt and demonstrate a national identity will diminish when there is no oppressive other nationality to fight against. It will become irrelevant. Just a fact of life for most people.

    This whole Scottish independence thing is not an SNP thing – it is about the choice to govern themselves.

    I worry that whatever choice Scotland makes the powers that be will fight to hold on to the Scottish resources and assets. Without the oil the rUK would be in deep doo-doo. I can foresee protracted intransigence during negotiations with the UK trying to force Scotland to take on excessive debt or agree to host rUK military bases for decades to come or to give up rights to large swathes of the oil fields.

  • Peter Kemp

    Hard to believe Cameron said this, unbelievable. Desperation seems to be the only motive to avoid what seems now to be a YES vote.

    Scotland will be more vulnerable to terrorist attacks in a “very dangerous and insecure world” if it votes for independence on Sept. 18, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said.

    Being part of a union gives Scots the protective benefits of being part of a larger country, Cameron told reporters at the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s summit in Newport, Wales, yesterday.

    “With terrorist threats and other threats, isn’t it better to be part of a United Kingdom that has a top-five defense budget, some of the best intelligence and security services anywhere in the world, that is part of every single alliance that really matters in the world in terms of NATO, the G-8, the G-20, the European Union, a member of the security council of the UN?” Cameron said. “All those networks and abilities to work with allies to keep us safe. Isn’t it better to have those things than separate yourself from them?”

    Some of the best ‘intelligence’ when Tony Blair aided and abetted George Bush into an illegal war, creating the current disaster and ISIS?

    Cameron is going to withhold security ‘intelligence’ from an independent Scotland? Is that not an act of bastardry when English tourists or English workers are also potential victims?

    Best intelligence from Cameron that involves GCHQ destroying Scots people’s privacy?

    Go indepedendent Scotland!

  • Brendan

    I too have never been convinced about the polling. It’s pretty clear that the pollsters are deeply enmeshed in the political process, and are far from ‘independent’. However, I also have never thought for 1 minute that the ‘Yes’ vote would win. Any slight margin towards the ‘Yes’ vote can, we all understand, be ‘rectified’ by the usual techniques. However, this all becomes a bit harder if the result is 55\45, or similar. Outright rigging of a poll can’t be easy, when the culprits have to remain invisible. It’s a subtle balance, as the poll has to be seen to be clean. The Nazi’s just beat people up and stuffed the ballots, and didn’t especially care who knew it. In current day UK, clearly it doesn’t quite work like this.

    However, it looks like I may be wrong. Were I a betting man, I would, today, say that the ‘Yes’ vote will win, by a margin of over 3 or 4%. Oh well, when wrong, best to admit, move on. Have to say that the ‘Better Together’ campaign has been awful, and the media propaganda self-defeating. Which makes me chuckle.

  • doug scorgie

    The original independence ballot question was to include the option to vote for Devo-max instead.

    The UK government refused and demanded that there be a single question; basically Yes or No to independence.

    Now that it seems likely the Yes votes will win the government is offering Devo-Max to the Scots if they vote No.

    That’s the carrot but the stick is still there:

    “George Osborne has promised Scotland fresh powers if it rejects independence in this month’s referendum, but said Britain will not share the pound if the union is dissolved.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-george-osborne-offers-scotland-fresh-powers-but-says-no-chance-of-sharing-the-pound-9716931.html

  • willyrobinson

    @Dreolin
    My favourite panic comment was Jonathan Freeman in The Guardian a few days ago blaming the No campaign for starting off too negative. He reckons they should have turned negative in the last 3 weeks instead – but now the Scots are immune to it.

    Subtext: we should have lied and fearmongered better.

    This result in Scotland is going to set Catalonia on fire. This could be Europe’s Arab Spring

  • Brendan

    @WillyRobinson

    I rather like one where Scots athletes won’t be allowed to go to the next Olympics.

    It’s all so high school petty, you have to laugh.

    Next up: Scotland will have to cede the word ‘land’ to the English, and call themselves ‘Scotplace’. Or something equally absurd.

  • Dreoilin

    “This could be Europe’s Arab Spring” – Willyrobinson

    All my fingers and toes are crossed!

  • Dreoilin

    I don’t think the words “Decapitate Britain” are there by accident either.

    Playing on even subconscious fears of ISIS and all that jazz. It fits in nicely with

    “Scotland will be more vulnerable to terrorist attacks in a “very dangerous and insecure world” if it votes for independence on Sept. 18, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said.”

    Panic is the word.

  • Sheltie2014

    Craig, thanks for all your hard work. I’ll be sober on the 19th I’ll be rolling up my sleeves to help sick people.

  • Jay

    Too formulate radical liberal view other than the opinionated position between Conservatism and labour held by modern neo liberalism. I suggest anyone wanting democracy ( peace and prosperity) regard Aristotles Golden Mean as a view combined with Logical syllogism and reflective exceptionalism in essence may constitute the outcome of its construction.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x5L3dVGJRoA

    Parental advice welcome.

  • mark golding

    Registration for the Scottish Independence Referendum has now closed.

    http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/info/20033/elections_and_voting/101/register_to_vote_apply_for_a_postal_vote_or_proxy_vote

    Moves to use electronic counting machines for Scotland’s independence vote have been proposed although it it still not clear how the vote will be counted.

    DRS Data Services Limited (DRS) was selected as the preferred supplier to provide the equipment and support necessary to support such a process. DRS provided the e-counting services in the Greater London Authority / London Mayoral Elections in 2000 and 2004. DRS also involved Electoral Reform Services (ERS) in their proposals.

    If DRS gets the job I will enlighten Scotland having consulted for this company during the London mayoral elections.

    http://www.openrightsgroup.org/campaigns/e-voting/e-voting-2007/e-voting-main

  • Mary

    Ring the bells. Raise the Union flag.

    They’ve managed to do it again.

    The Duchess of Cambridge is pregnant with her second child, Clarence House confirms.

    The BBC’s royal watchers like Peter Hunt and Nicholas Witchell will be ecstatic.

    ~~~

    PS Mr Ding Dong. The witch IS dead thank God.

  • YouKnowMyName

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/one-quarter-fear-mi5-will-try-to-prevent-yes-vote.25254273

    ONE in four Scots believes M15 is working with the UK Government to prevent independence, a new [YouGov] poll reveals. The study, which many will see as a measure of public distrust in Westminster, found nearly as many thought next week’s vote will be rigged.

    …

    Jim Sillars, the former SNP deputy leader, has long believed that UK security services have taken a watching brief over the SNP, although he too sees the poll results as indicating a lack of trust in UK institutions.

    …
    to balance this hysterical paranoia, here’s the Better Together quote:

    “People in Scotland know that this decision is much bigger than ridiculous conspiracy theories that circulate on social media.”

    over to the Intelligence Community to disabuse us of these fears…, who’ll go first?

  • Aim Here

    AAVMN writes:

    >I expect the quality of ‘Scottishness’ to become less important in an independent Scotland – perhaps not immediately but over time.

    That’s already happened to a large extent. The whole success of the independence campaign has been about diverting the idea of independence away from self-determination for the Scottish people (with the corresponding anglophobic xenophobia that tends to go along with that) and towards breaking the people who happen to live in Scotland away from the toxic Westminster system.

    The people who most want to talk about ‘the Scots’ are the no campaigners on both sides of the border – it took a Scottish Labour MSP to propose letting expatriate Scots vote in the referendum. The SNP wasn’t having any of that.

  • Bugger (the Panda)

    Anyone sober at 9am on the 19th would not be a real Scot.

    Those sober and sobbing will be the real Scots, but.

  • fred

    “Anybody sober at 9am on 19 September (unless having medical excuse) is not part of the New Scotland.”

    I’ll be sober as what the result so it looks like you’re just going to have to exclude me from your New Scotland.

    The new doesn’t look too different to the old anyway.

    Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, acknowledged the continued importance of the media baron’s support in an interview with GQ magazine in April in which he described Mr Murdoch as “a remarkable man”. On Twitter, Rupert has cheered Mr Salmond on in his political jousting with the Prime Minister, describing the SNP leader as “clearly most brilliant politician in UK” and “Loved by Scots”.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/tv-radio/nigel-farage-earns-the-rupert-murdoch-seal-of-approval-in-impromptu-manhattan-meeting-9715259.html

  • Brendan

    “ONE in four Scots believes M15 is working with the UK Government to prevent independence, a new [YouGov] poll reveals. The study, which many will see as a measure of public distrust in Westminster, found nearly as many thought next week’s vote will be rigged.”

    I’m one of them. However, the problem with Mi5 is that nobody – inc. our PM – seems to have the remotest idea what they do. Same with Mi6. There is literally zero oversight or accountability. It’s perfectly possible that the opposite is true: that Mi5 is actively working for the ‘Yes’ campaign.

    Something else an independent Scotland needs to get right: it’s security services. For one, they should be much, much smaller. It’s a specialist area. A limited intelligence agency dealing with corruption, paedophilia, self-defence – that I understand. Just. But the ridiculous, over-arching security state which we now live in is just plain fucked-up. And infiltration has to be seriously reduced. Personally, I think it should be illegal, and abandoned, unless strictly authorised for very specific purposes. The routine infiltration of everything is just odd.

  • JimmyGiro

    The greatest thing about a first past the post, representative democracy, is that you can vote out those you do not like, either for philosophical reasons, or national.

    Scotland is about to vote out England, because Scottish people have been subverted to believe that all their personal woes are tied up with the national identity of the English, despite the masters of the British Bureaucracy being composed of a disproportionately large number of Scots.

    Removing from your narrative that which is irrational is wisdom; removing that which is not like yourself, is the bigotry of Narcissism; and when that Narcissism is a shared tribal trait, it is Social Nationalism.

    The smallness of Scotland will not make it any more cosy, for a parochial fascism can be just as repressive as a Leviathan; for, although the Leviathan can summon up greater official force, it faces a greater public power to oppose its excesses. Whereas a parochial National Socialist movement need only deploy a relatively small GESTAPO to control an entire people, by using its self inflicted nationalistic mythos against any individual dissent or unorthodoxy.

  • OldMark

    ‘The Duchess of Cambridge is pregnant with her second child, Clarence House confirms.’

    This’ll give our political and media elite a safety valve/excuse for displacement activity for about 24 hours, and then the looming realisation that Scots independence is a real possibility will return, and we’ll be back to more bluster from the likes of Boris.

  • Ba'al Zevul (For Scotland)

    What TheCE said:

    Everything will be thrown at us from the Establishment from now until polling, time to hold on for the ride. 🙂

    Make bloody sure you’ve got something heavy to throw back at it, folks. The show ain’t over till the pink condom Cameron splits.

  • Ba'al Zevul (For Scotland)

    Rupert has cheered Mr Salmond on in his political jousting with the Prime Minister, describing the SNP leader as “clearly most brilliant politician in UK” and “Loved by Scots”.

    Rupe backs winners. Like it or like it not.

    BTW, Fred, Rupe and Nigel were having a chat last week in New York. At Rupe’s request. Looks like the English might be seeing a bit of nationalist thinking soon.

    http://www.northamericangoldwings.com/images/emoticons/running_happy.gif

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