YouGov stood to have its reputation shattered if it continued to put out polls showing ten point leads for No, when Yes is very obviously headed for a majority.
Those massive YouGov leads for No were all part of the Unionist tactic of making independence appear both uniquely impossible to Scotland, as opposed to any other small nation state you can name, and an unattainable dream. Too poor, too wee, too stupid and politically isolated. YouGov are known in the trade as “You Can Have Any Result You Pay For Gov”. For months, James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop blog has brilliantly analysed the methodologies they employed to give those large No leads – asking prior leading questions, a large preponderance of Labour voters in their panel, and the “Kellner Correction” – an assumption that lies or faulty memory about how people last voted, would penalise Labour unless corrected for statistically. The result was YouGov polls that were great reading for the No camp, but made no sense whatsever to anybody who had talked to voters.
My own view is that there has not been an extraordinary 12 point swing in a fortnight, as illustrated by YouGov’s last two polls. What there has been is a continuing stead swing and a realisation in YouGov that, having helped the No campaign for over a year by trying to make a Yes vote seem hopeless, to be over 12% out on this vital vote might damage YouGov’s share price fatally. So they have had to start publishing something close to the truth.
As I have been reporting, the truth has been very obvious to people on the ground for weeks. And the truth is not only that independence is coming, but that the entire political class, BBC and mainstream media has been rejected, and a new form of popular power, based on community democracy and social media, has taken over.
I received an invite from the National Library of Scotland to a post-referendum debrief at 9am on 19 September. Anybody sober at 9am on 19 September (unless having medical excuse) is not part of the New Scotland. But more crucially, the panel includes Henry McLeish and Michael Moore – and they want people to pay 35 pounds to listen to their words of wisdom.
They really haven’t got it yet. Nobody will ever care what Moore and McLeish and their like have to say again, and the kind of democracy we will have will not involve paying substantial sums to hear pearls of wisdom drop from troughers on a pedestal. Nor will members of the old political establishment have a future in that career. It was a good tactic for Alex Salmond to say that Darling and Carmichael will be on the negotiating team: the people will not allow it to happen.
There is at last some understanding that Yes will win: the penny has not yet dropped that this is a revolutionary moment, not a polite constitutional shuffle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/08/pound-slumps-scottish-yes-campaign-poll-lead
Woohoo. Independence campaign boosts exports!
Recently paraded Scots aid worker David Haines imminent ‘execution’ is calculated to ‘shock’ Scotland to vote for Union by the British and American intelligent services.
The intelligence services will present the antithesis of my statement by ‘revealing’ it is “extremely likely” ISIS terror chiefs believe beheading Haines will make Prime Minister David Cameron appear “weak”, fuelling anti-English sentiment among referendum voters.
This is propaganda a subliminal lie and an ignorant attempt to use the power of intention..
Professor Anthony Glees, one of the UK’s most respected intelligence analysts, is convinced ISIS sense an opportunity to weaken the UK via their brutal campaign of terror.
http://www.sundaypost.com/news-views/scotland/isis-targeted-scot-to-force-a-yes-vote-in-referendum-1.562793
@mark golding, voter fraud allegations are a traditional American diversion from polling-night election theft. The Americans voted in Al Gore, and didn’t get him. They voted in John Kerry and they didn’t get him either. The technicians who rigged those elections are working closely with MI5. Pressure points include the 20% overage in available ballots and the option of counting votes in advance of verification. If the vote is close enough to steal, places to watch include Hilhead, South Ayrshire, West Lothian, and Glasgow. Proprietaries to watch through another channel.
@Ba’al Zevul “Woohoo. Independence campaign boosts exports!”
We should be saying not ‘Woo-Hoo’ but ‘Woe, woe’, for Scotland as well as rUK. Consider the dangers of independence from this NYT article which uses a comparison of Florida vs Spain as a cautionary tale:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=1
The point being, that Florida was part of the USA which could bail her out in trouble. Not so for Spain. Look unto Florida and Spain, O Scotland and beware! (Maybe many people in Scotland have, even they don’t speak of it openly).
I find your attitude inexplicable, Abe. When the pound goes pfft in any other circumstances, it is hailed as an opportunity for British exporters, and retrospective commentators fall over themselves to say it was overvalued anyway. As indeed it was, against the dollar. And it’s going to be hard to sell anything against the sinking Euro without some, er, structural adjustment, so three cheers for YES!
The next global crash, which will not be due to Scottish independence or the lack of it, but,as usual, to financial criminality, is probably not far away, in any case. We can all woe, woe together then.
It’s getting exciting, but Yessers might want to call OSCE in advance to monitor. You don’t want Afghani-style recounts.
And be careful what you wish for. An earlier referendum in the Colonies resulted in a racist war-mongering band of misogynists emerging after their severance from civilization.
When I checked on line last night, bookies were offering 2-1 odds in favor of a Yes victory in the referendum.
Gestapo? When Churchill accused Labour of being about to create a Gestapo in 1945, it was one of the major causes of his landslide defeat that year.
https://www.youtube.com/user/SyrianGirlpartisan
Beheaded Journalist Sotloff Had Info Rebels Used Chemical Weapons and believed being Kidnapped by AlQaeda would earn their trust. Journalist Steven Sotloff who was kidnapped and beheaded by ISIS believed the Syrian rebels possessed and possibly used chemical weapons on Aleppo and wanted to report it leaked conversations show. American foreign fighter Matthew Vandyke who fought along side the Libyan insurgency and also went to Syria on a pro Syrian Rebel mission, revealed to Sotloff that he had information that Syrian rebels posed chemical weapons before they were used in Aleppo.
In another conversation Sotloff told Vandyke that he believed being kidnapped by AlQaeda group Jabhat Al Nusra would be a way to earn their trust. Vandyke agreed claiming some of the best connections he made with Al Qaeda groups were after being ‘arrested’. In another conversation Vandyke was very eager to meet with the AlQaeda group Jabhat AL Nusra and network with them.
The conversations where leaked by the Syrian Electronic Army (SEA) who hacked Vandyke’s email and Facebook account. A Zip file of several hundreds of conversations can be downloaded here. Vandyke has confirmed that his Facebook account and email were hacked by the SEA, and other journalists have also authenticated that the leaked conversations are real and accurate
Lovely jubbly. The people are standing up.
‘We are many, they are few…’
British National Health Action Party to fight Cameron seat at 2015 election
http://voiceofrussia.com/uk/news/2014_09_07/British-National-Health-Action-Party-to-fight-Cameron-seat-at-2015-election-5070/
Britain’s National Health Action Party members, drawn from grass roots groups throughout the UK, ends a three-week Jarrow-style march in London …
Former vice-chair of RCHT to stand for parliament with party that champions NHS
http://www.westbriton.co.uk/vice-chair-RCHT-stand-parliament-party-champions/story-22889358-detail/story.html
Doctors bid to unseat ministers
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/doctors-bid-unseat-ministers-150012940.html
Full Coverage
Mark. Be wary ref Glees.
Here he is with Galloway.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT3TItXQxIU
Terrrrists coming up through the floorboards.
http://powerbase.info/index.php/Anthony_Glees
With typically provocative panache, Boris Johnson argues in today’s Telegraph: “decapitate Britain at Carlisle and you can no longer call it Britain; …Take away Scotland, and we destroy Britain.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11080893/Scottish-independence-Decapitate-Britain-and-we-kill-off-the-greatest-political-union-ever.html
Correcting his schoolboy errors of history and geography also suggests how to meet two puzzles over nomenclature that have caused much angst. Even after a Yes vote Britain will remain the name of the world’s ninth largest island and Scots and English will remain, as now, able to describe themselves as being also British and European (just as Norwegians can describe themselves also as Scandinavian and European, despite having achieved independence from Sweden and not being members of the EU).
Ah, but what about the name of the new country, which does not include Scotland? That’s easy – just as Scotland was once also known as North Britain, why not have South Britain as the common political name for the new state? (The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted happily to admit South Sudan as a new member of the UN.) What about Northern Irish sensitivities? I have two solutions. First, as well as the colloquial “South Britain” let the full official name be South Britain and North-East Ireland – a name both geographically accurate and with a pleasing symmetry. Alternatively, since power sharing and the UK (including Scotland) -Irish Agreement are such unusual political arrangements, why not stave off dangerously premature pressures for a United Ireland by making Northern Ireland into an Irish/Scottish/South British Condominium?
Bovdunov: What are the interests of Europe with regard to Ukraine? What would be the most acceptable geopolitical reconfiguration of the space to Europe?
Nad: As we have already said, there is no such thing that could be called the “geopolitics of the European Union.” The European Union has failed to establish itself as a separate geopolitical factor, with their own interests that are different from the interests of the United States. We believe that this will change for the better in the future, but a necessary precondition for it is the further decline of American hegemony. Until then, the EU remains only as an American bridgehead on the ground of Eurasia, in fact it is the American occupation zone. This EU everywhere and always acts against the interests of Europe.
It is therefore not only necessary for there to be a geopolitical reconfiguration of the former Soviet space, but also geopolitical reconfiguration of the whole of Europe, including the European Union. In other words, the EU itself should begin with deep structural reform and questioning their own geopolitical role. It is necessary immediately but at present the European political elite, or rather pseudo-elite, is simply not capable.
http://syncreticstudies.com/2014/09/06/eurasia-movement-interviews-boris-nad-on-novorossiya/
Question: Back in spring, both Government and Kremlin officials said that there won’t be any sectoral sanctions. Do you expect new sanctions, and if so, what sectors do you expect to be hit and how might Russia retaliate?
Dmitry Medvedev: I hoped that our partners would be smarter. Alas.
You’ll have to ask them if there will be new sanctions. If there are sanctions related to the energy sector, or further restrictions on Russia’s financial sector, we will have to respond asymmetrically. I brought up some options during a meeting of the Government. For example, we could impose transport restrictions. We believe we have friendly relations with our partners, and foreign airlines of friendly countries are permitted to fly over Russia. However, we’ll have to respond to any restrictions imposed on us. If Western carriers have to bypass our airspace, this could drive many struggling airlines into bankruptcy. This is not the way to go. We just hope our partners realise this at some point.
Moreover, these sanctions have done nothing to bring about calm in Ukraine. They are wide off the mark, as the vast majority of political leaders recognise. Unfortunately, we are seeing the inertia of a certain way of thinking and the temptation to use force in international relations.
http://government.ru/en/news/14809
Asymmetric responses is code for ‘we play chess, while they play checkers’.
Pretty sure there was YouGov poll about 3 months ago in which the results were never published, I think even back then a swing to yes was in the cards. the Better Together camp made all sorts of excuse as to why the results wouldn’t be posted.
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Meanwhile the desperate Daily Record, a Trinity Mirror Group,, owned and ultra anti-independence rag, has a two page “Record Column” in it today instead of the usual quarter page column. The two page spread virtually begs voters to vote no and stay in the union, how pathetic.
I see Kate Goldsmith is up the duff again, another poncing mouth for the taxpayer to cosset, also old Queen Lizzie has berated David Cameron on his pathetic attempts to keep the Scots, appeased with impotent new powers, Lizzie, is said to furious at the thought of losing her claim on the Scottish sea bed.
Old Saxe Coburg-Gotha has already made £60 million quid from the seabed around the UK, not bad considering its land she’ll never walk on. She’s probably a Trillionaire and she could halt poverty in the UK over night, but she won’t in reality she couldn’t give a monkeys about the common man.
Now that all of Westminster is offering the Scottish voters a better deal if they vote no I suppose I have to support the yes vote in Scotland and yes vote in Wales too because that seems to be the way get results (even if you don’t want full independence you need to act like you mean business).
Johann Lamont canvassing in Nicola Sturgeon’s patch the other day, on the southside, apparently most doors that she chapped handed her the leaflet back. similar info was posted on the Labour website but quickly removed after the blunder was noticed, but not before someone took a screen shot.
This lead to a war of words between Lamont and Sturgeon on Twitter.
Scotland Yes or No will be gone anyway.
http://www.presstv.com/detail/2014/09/08/378094/scotland-to-be-gone-within-decade/
Now that all of Westminster is offering the Scottish voters a better deal if they vote no I suppose I have to support the yes vote in Scotland and yes vote in Wales too because that seems to be the way get results (even if you don’t want full independence you need to act like you mean business).
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FOOL
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How Westminster can offer new powers to Scots is beyond me when over 100.000 Scots have already voted by post, also I’m pretty sure its illegal to offer/add/change anything this close to the vote.
Scotland Yes or No will be gone anyway.
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Dave Lawton.
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Yeah Dave I think we’ll get a yes vote if its a no vote Westminster have been making noises, to set up an office in Scotland to oversee and approve any decision made by Holyrood, effectively rendering it impotent.
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It was the esteemed buffoon Lord George Robertson who said, “Devolution will kill nationalism stone dead.” Robertson still doesn’t know his arse from his elbow.
Here’s Danny Alexander Lib/Dem canvassing with UKIP’s David Cockburn, hang on didn’t Better Together say that they wouldn’t have anything to do with UKIP? and didn’t Jim Murphy say on his 100 day tour of lies that the SNP were in bed with the fascists.?
It seems its the unionists who are in bed with the fascists, by canvassing with UKIP who have links to the Neo-Nazi’s, BNP and the EDL.
http://munguinsrepublic.blogspot.co.uk/
As seven-day NATO military exercises continue to take place in Latvia, the organisation says the drills are aimed at showing its commitment to Baltic member states in the face of an “assertive” Russia.
Exercise Steadfast Javelin 2, which kicked off on September 2, simulates the deployment of NATO soldiers and equipment during a crisis situation. A total of around 2,000 soldiers from nine different countries are taking part in the maneuvers, which will carry on until Monday.
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NATO flexing its muscles, in the run up to an attack, hopefully though its just posturing.
Iain Orr,
I believe that both your proposed solutions to the impact of Scottish independence on Northern Ireland would fail. The Unionist parties, backed up by the more extreme loyalist communities, would reject any attempt to change the name of Northern Ireland. Obviously the concept of joint rule would likewise be rejected by the Unionists Parties and would certainly elicit a popular backlash, regardless of your proposed role for a new Scottish state. The establishment of a condominium may seem like an equitable solution but, as ever with the politics of Ireland, it would in fact ensure that no one was happy and would stoke the fires of nationalism rather than stave off the issue of reunification.
As you may be aware, support for a united Ireland is at an all time low. There is now significant divergence between the votes cast for Sinn Fein and those who support a united Ireland. There will not be many clamouring for a ‘border poll’ if the Scots do vote Yes, apart from some SF politicians based in the North and the cyber republicans who are convinced every vote for SF equates to a vote for a 32 county republic. The leadership of SF, most notably Gerry Adams, have their sights set on forming part of the next Government in the Republic of Ireland. A border poll would be a needless distraction for them and for politics of Northern Ireland.
ONE in four Scots believes M15 is working with the UK Government to prevent independence, a new [YouGov] poll reveals. The study, which many will see as a measure of public distrust in Westminster, found nearly as many thought next week’s vote will be rigged.
…
Jim Sillars, the former SNP deputy leader, has long believed that UK security services have taken a watching brief over the SNP, although he too sees the poll results as indicating a lack of trust in UK institutions.
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Youknowmyname.
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MI5 have previous form.
http://www.scottishrepublicansocialistmovement.org/Pages/SRSMWhoKilledWillieMacRae.aspx
Are you Chris Cornell in disguise?
Some marvellous, punch-yourself-in-the-face stupid Beeb scaremongering right now. Front page, the headline blares: “Pound falls after referendum poll”.
Leave aside whether the the dollar-sterling exchange rate matters at all in the grand scheme of things. But to the extent anyone wants to parse the specifics, the fx market is effectively re-pricing the probability that Scotland leaves the pound. A Scotland in the Union would not, but an independent Scotland might; the chances may be low, but it is a non-negligible probability. The maths therefore implies that rUK, and England mainly, is holding back the value of the pound. SO SCARY. (It’s all meaningless really, but if you want to scare-monger on the premise that weaker pound = bad, at least understand what your argument implies)
Buried in the article is a link to a Paul Krugman article apparently warning on the costs of independence. Now, what is left unsaid is that Krugman’s argument hinges entirely on Scotland staying on the pound. The article is well worth reading, but it amounts to a cautionary tale about not having your own currency, which is important and hopefully something an independent Scotland would quickly address.
The “weaker pound” headline however is an absurdity.
Yes is very obviously headed for a majority.
If so, for the reason that a feeble “no” campaign and a win for the “yes” is government policy.
Why?
Because the NWO — the Anglo-Zionist conspiracy for global empire subordinate to the money power — requires the breakup of powerful nation states such as the UK (and most importantly Russia and then China), for the easier manipulation of the parts, which will receive their orders from supranational institutions such as the EU, NATO and the WTO.
Separation of Scotland from the UK will not mean greater independence, it will mean greater subordination to the undemocratic control of the financial interests.
Looks like there’s going to be some form of Scotland votes Yes celebration party in Trafalgar square on the evening of Friday 19th.
I don’t understand why everybody assumes that after a break up, Northern Ireland will be lumped with England and Wales rather than with Scotland. That is surely a subject for post-referendum negotiation. (Or, better, a subject for a separate referendum in Northern Ireland.)
The mere suggestion that the Yes vote may win the Scottish independence has caused the British pound, the FTSE, and Brent Crude to roil in just one day – what posters should focus on during the last ten days of the campaign.
Seriously think the contrived selloff will sink it.