YouGov stood to have its reputation shattered if it continued to put out polls showing ten point leads for No, when Yes is very obviously headed for a majority.
Those massive YouGov leads for No were all part of the Unionist tactic of making independence appear both uniquely impossible to Scotland, as opposed to any other small nation state you can name, and an unattainable dream. Too poor, too wee, too stupid and politically isolated. YouGov are known in the trade as “You Can Have Any Result You Pay For Gov”. For months, James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop blog has brilliantly analysed the methodologies they employed to give those large No leads – asking prior leading questions, a large preponderance of Labour voters in their panel, and the “Kellner Correction” – an assumption that lies or faulty memory about how people last voted, would penalise Labour unless corrected for statistically. The result was YouGov polls that were great reading for the No camp, but made no sense whatsever to anybody who had talked to voters.
My own view is that there has not been an extraordinary 12 point swing in a fortnight, as illustrated by YouGov’s last two polls. What there has been is a continuing stead swing and a realisation in YouGov that, having helped the No campaign for over a year by trying to make a Yes vote seem hopeless, to be over 12% out on this vital vote might damage YouGov’s share price fatally. So they have had to start publishing something close to the truth.
As I have been reporting, the truth has been very obvious to people on the ground for weeks. And the truth is not only that independence is coming, but that the entire political class, BBC and mainstream media has been rejected, and a new form of popular power, based on community democracy and social media, has taken over.
I received an invite from the National Library of Scotland to a post-referendum debrief at 9am on 19 September. Anybody sober at 9am on 19 September (unless having medical excuse) is not part of the New Scotland. But more crucially, the panel includes Henry McLeish and Michael Moore – and they want people to pay 35 pounds to listen to their words of wisdom.
They really haven’t got it yet. Nobody will ever care what Moore and McLeish and their like have to say again, and the kind of democracy we will have will not involve paying substantial sums to hear pearls of wisdom drop from troughers on a pedestal. Nor will members of the old political establishment have a future in that career. It was a good tactic for Alex Salmond to say that Darling and Carmichael will be on the negotiating team: the people will not allow it to happen.
There is at last some understanding that Yes will win: the penny has not yet dropped that this is a revolutionary moment, not a polite constitutional shuffle.
Scottish independence will eventually peel off England and Wales and Cornwall and Man and the Channel Islands, when they realize how bad they’re getting screwed. Then Great Britain will be the City of London, an independent city-state like the Vatican. The City is exactly like the Vatican. They’re both built on money laundering, pedophilia and nice architecture. They have a Remembrancer instead of a pope, but he could start his own religion that says you’re going to go to hell unless you owe him money or whatever. I’m sure that huge throngs of people will come and worship him.
Canspeccy: With respect , nothing can possibly be more subordinate to the financial markets than the present bunch of clowns in # 10.If the UK had been a strong entity, we would have managed to resist the wars , and going against the UN, as well as standing up for the Palestinians suffering ethnic erasure.Independence is no panacea for all ills, but it will have a cathartic effect on our politics and probably also the rUK’s too.If Better Together has thought it worth mentioning they would have.
Switzerland could offer Snowden immunity from extradition if he testifies at hearings.
http://boingboing.net/2014/09/08/switzerland-reportedly-offers.html
Plaid Cymru, up in Scotland today and actively helping the yes campaign,they hope Scotland gains independence, and they hope a knock on effect will help Wales at the very least gain more powers, Owain Glyndwr, would have been proud of them.
“Too poor, too wee, too stupid and politically isolated.”
Oh, please! That’s beneath you; nobody serious thinks that.
“You Can Have Any Result You Pay For Gov”.
I have no idea about YouGov particularly, but that’s not unusual for opinion polls. They have long been about shaping public opinion not measuring it; that is clear from a cursory examination of the questions they ask and how they are phrased. I dare say some are better – or perhaps more subtle – than others, though.
In any event, fraternity is something you either feel or you don’t. If it is absent, it can’t be imposed by government fiat. Forming a separate nation state of Scotland is merely a symptom of that sentiment and what will be will be. Unionists have had their say and if their words have fallen on deaf ears, then nothing can be done and it is time to move on.
Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad. We have been insane for decades and a plurality of nation states (European regions, more accurately) on this geographically insignificant archipelago (less than half the size of Texas including what is now the Irish Republic!) is merely the latest symptom of that sad trend. While for my part I am sad about the idea of a separate Scotland if it comes about, its real significance is as a manifestation of a deeper underlying malaise.
Best wishes all, wherever you live.
Former secretary of state Henry Kissinger says the beheading of American journalists by ISIL terrorists is an insult to the United States and calls for a “strong attack” on the group.
“They have cut the throat of an American on television. This is an insult to the United States, which requires that we demonstrate that this is not an act that is free,” Kissinger told NPR.
“I would strongly favor a strong attack on ISIS for a period that is related to the murder of the American,” he added, using another acronym for the terror organization.
The terrorist group executed two US journalists after President Barack Obama last month authorized airstrikes against ISIL positions in Iraq.
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The evil old Zionist wants blood.
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http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/09/07/377953/kissinger-suggests-strong-attack-on-isil/
Canspeccy: With respect , nothing can possibly be more subordinate to the financial markets than the present bunch of clowns in # 10.
I don’t dispute that. But it confirms my point that breakup of the UK is intended by the money power.
To say that the breakup of the UK is a good thing because the government in Westminster is bought, blackmailed or otherwise controlled by the money power is to suggest that it is better to be a citizen of a small corrupt nation than a large corrupt nation. I don’t believe that is generally the case. And there is no reason to suppose that a ruling clique in Edinburgh will prove any less easily bribed or blackmailed than the scoundrels in London.
If you want reform, you need to think about how to go about reform, rather than mindlessly assuming that separation equals independence equals moral regeneration.
So Kissinger, even though long out of government, still calls it “ISIL”? What is it with everybody associated with the U.S. government (and media people reporting stories whose sources are U.S. government people), when everybody else calls it “ISIS” or “IS” or “the Islamic State”? Do they have some desire to be out of step with the rest of the world?
The feebleness of the “no” campaign is the result of the complete failure by the government of the UK to focus attention on the consequences of separation.
If you allow the debate to center on the question of “independence,” without discussion of the consequences of separation, then the “Yes” is at a huge advantage: Who would not opt for “independence” over, well, what’s the opposite: “dependence? “subordination?” “subservience?”
If the separatists ( or “terrorists” to use NATO jargon as applied to Eastern Ukraine) had been required to answer a few simple questions before the vote, such as how the UK national debt will be allocated between Scotland and the Disunited Kingdom (DK); what will be done with UK and NATO defense installations in Scotland including nuke sub and air bases, radar installations, etc.; how the border will be controlled to prevent cross-border movement of illegal immigrants, smugglers and criminals (visas for Scots working in England? delays at the border due to customs and immigration inspections and controls); what will become of UK Government employees in Scotland; what will happen to pensions of UK civil servants in Scotland and contributors to the UK national pension scheme, then the outcome of the debate would have been very different.
Another critical question left entirely in the air is that of the status of Scottish MP’s in Westminster during the negotiation of the terms of Scottish independence? Are the English really going to standby while laborite Scotch MP’s dictate the terms of settlement? And if not, is not the referendum merely the prelude to serious turmoil, that could lead even to violence.
CanSpeccy: totally agree. The prospect of an “independent” Scotland with no currency, no military and not a member of either NATO or the EU is too tantalising a prospect for the banksters to pass over. They were hoping Salmond would swing it without their intervention but he couldn’t, hence the fun and games in the final two weeks.
Trust Me On The Economy? New Report Claims Darling’s Deception Cost Us £25bn
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A devastating new report has raised serious concerns over former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling’s role in the UK’s financial crisis.
Revelations from an investigation by the Independent on Sunday (IoS) show that the Better Together chairman may have colluded with the Bank of England to conceal the true state of at least one of Britain’s giant banking institutions leading to a seemingly fraudulent report to potential investors.
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The Clandestine Con
The newspaper revealed that the former Labour UK Chancellor and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, along with the Bank of England (BoE) and regulator the Financial Services Authority (FSA) deceived the public in order to rescue failed bank HBOS (Bank of Scotland) with £25bn of taxpayer funds.
These fresh revelations threaten to further undermine the already tarnished economic credibility of the Better Together leader as he seeks to fend off a surge in support in the polls for Scotland becoming independent.
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Brown and Darling are a couple of con men, who at present are trying to con the Scottish public into voting no.
http://nationalcollective.com/2014/09/06/trust-me-on-the-economy-new-report-claims-darlings-deception-cost-us-25bn/#comments
The Scottish MP’s in England will be pretty bloody useless…. but will have to stay there until full independence otherwise there’s no representation in International matters that affect her.I would hope that sense would prevail and there would be cooperation in all area’s to smooth over the separation of Parliaments and powers.
With the whole world watching it would be hard to believe that England would do what they did to the Darien project.But you never know.
Glad to note that RepublicOfPerspiringDreams is off the subject of Holocaust denial after his merited chastisement by Craig; however, the language employed for the rich variety of other themes he’s now on remains as elegant as ever :
“I see Kate Goldsmith is up the duff again, another poncing mouth for the taxpayer to cosset”.
Otherwise to be read as
“I see Republicifscotland is vomiting bile again, another nauseous voice for the long-suffering readers of CM to have to put up with”
LOL
“A devastating new report has raised serious concerns over former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling’s role in the UK’s financial crisis”
Yup, here we go. A steady discrediting of the No campaign leading to an overwhelming Yes vote. The Queen will shortly thereafter deliver a moving speech terminating the union with immediate effect.
Anyone with half a brain can see where the unblinking enthusiasm for ‘Scottish’ independence comes from:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiPrM0DNI8w
To know the benefits of historical culture, you must have the mind that can see beyond the immediacy of tribal identity, and to be able to connect it to the whole picture through time and space.
When Ireland seceded from the United Kingdom, the Sinn Fein members elected to Parliament refused to sit in Westminster, so that the only representation Ireland still had in Westminster were the Protestant MP’s elected by Protestant constituencies. That didn’t work out too badly for Ireland, despite the lack of representation.
I see Republicifscotland is vomiting bile again, another nauseous voice for the long-suffering readers of CM to have to put up with”
LOL
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Laughing at your own comments, what a knob head you are.
Yup, here we go. A steady discrediting of the No campaign leading to an overwhelming Yes vote. The Queen will shortly thereafter deliver a moving speech terminating the union with immediate effect.
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I sincerely hope so, I just hope old Lizzie doesn’t prattle on too much, or she’ll begin to sound as odious as Habb.
Upside down barometer is busy prognosticating. The simple fact is as USSR imploded the “capitalistic” Western system is going down the tubes and the same pattern of old delineations getting resurrected is under way.
The grip of the old oligarchs and monopolists are no longer as tight as it used to be, and the evident break up is taking place albeit in a much less spectacular fashion as in case of Poland.
There is a simple readjustment to status ante and the current power structures are left reeling, and in search of remedies, but the cry is too little too late.
Wait for the big one to hit the dust then you will be taking a fit!
Dear Craig,
From the perspective of someone living in England and potentially having quite a lot to lose from Scottish independence ( perpetual Tory rule, Loss of oil revenue, restricted right to travel/live north of the border etc ) I can’t help agreeing with the yes campaign, The arguments seem compelling for the people of Scotland. I agree with you that there is a revolution going on in information through the use of social media which is allowing us to see through the hollow arguments of vested interest propounded by our political overlords. I only hope we may one day get the right to devolve from Westminster down here in Bristol.
While Gazans suffer from daily power shutdowns, Israel is signing an important deal to sell gas to Jordan, gas which, researchers say, was stolen from Palestinians.
In addition to confiscating Palestine’s energy resources, Israel has destroyed Gaza’s only power station in its latest military offensive.
On July 29, 2014, RT reported:
Over a million people in Gaza could be without electricity after Israeli tank shells hit the fuel depot of the enclave’s only power station, causing it to shut down. Its director, Mohammed al-Sharif, said, “The power plant is finished.” (Gaza’s only power plant shut down by Israeli shelling, RT, July 29, 2014)
The Middle East Monitor reported September 4, 2014 that a Memorandum of Understanding ”is due to be signed between Israel and Jordan in the reservoir of Leviathan to export Israeli natural gas to Jordan during the next 15 years with a total value of $15 billion”. (Jordan to buy $15bn of Israeli gas, Middle East Monitor, September 4, 2014.)
Israel’s first natural gas export deal will also be signed by “the Leviathan field partner Noble Energy Inc. on behalf of itself and its partners Delek Group Ltd. units Avner Oil and Gas LP and Delek Drilling Limited Partnership and Ratio Oil Exploration (1992) LP.” (Leviathan partners signing $15b Jordanian gas deal, Globes, Israel business news, on September 3, 2014)
We may recall that in the wake of the Israeli bombing and invasion under Operation Cast Lead, “Palestinian gas fields were de facto confiscated by Israel in derogation of international law”
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Not content with making the Palestinians homeless by stealing their land, not content, with genocidal butchering of the Palestinian people,the evil murderers are now stealing their mineral assets.
Where is NATO or the UN or the OSCE now?
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http://www.globalresearch.ca/israel-steals-gazas-offshore-natural-gas-15-billion-deal-with-jordan/5399736
“NATO flexing its muscles, in the run up to an attack, hopefully though its just posturing.”
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Nice two-way bet there, RoS.
If NATO does attack, you can say “told you so”.
If it doesn’t, you can say “I thought it wouldn’t”.
Deep “thinking”, keep it up.
The Scottish people saw what happened to the Québécois. Once the central government of Canada managed to beat back Quebec’s independence referendum, they were free to install local colonial administrators who fattened themselves on graft and tried to gut the universities as America does – because real education is a threat and the universities are a tempting trough. With no accountable government, students and citizens fought back as best they could with the Red Square movement, but they were hamstrung. The movement wasn’t repressed with state violence on the American scale, but it was successfully contained. The outcome was a few insulting sops. Seeing what happened to Quebec, Scots now know that if they fail to break away, Britain’s ruling class will have its revenge on the Scottish people.
CanSpeccy
“Another critical question left entirely in the air is that of the status of Scottish MP’s in Westminster during the negotiation of the terms of Scottish independence? Are the English really going to standby while laborite Scotch MP’s dictate the terms of settlement?”
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That’s a variant of the West Lothian question, isn’t it – and an excellent question. Well done for raising it.
Perhaps only MPs sitting in English, Welsh and Northern Irish constituencies should be able to vote on the outcome of the negotiations (and a vote there will be)?
Nice two-way bet there, RoS.
If NATO does attack, you can say “told you so”.
If it doesn’t, you can say “I thought it wouldn’t”.
Deep “thinking”, keep it up.
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Thinking, Hmmm! Not one of your fortes is it now.
RepublicOfHatefulThoughts
“While Gazans suffer from daily power shutdowns, Israel is signing an important deal to sell gas to Jordan, gas which, researchers say, was stolen from Palestinians.”
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Just because an outfit calls itself “globalresearch”, RoS, doesn’t mean that its outpourings are the fruit of researchers.
Who are their “researchers”? As I’ve said before, if you go onto gloabalresearch’s website you will be be met by a wall of non-transparency.
Perhaps only MPs sitting in English, Welsh and Northern Irish constituencies should be able to vote on the outcome of the negotiations (and a vote there will be)?
————–
PERHAPS?
Hedging your bets their, so if it goes either way you can say I told you so, a bit of “DEEP THINKING” going on there.
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As I said in a previous comment thinking isn’t one of your fortes.
RzpublicOfGazaInEngland
“Over a million people in Gaza could be without electricity after Israeli tank shells hit the fuel depot of the enclave’s only power station, causing it to shut down. Its director, Mohammed al-Sharif, said, “The power plant is finished.” (Gaza’s only power plant shut down by Israeli shelling, RT, July 29, 2014)”
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The above “report” from the egregious Russia Today is dated 29 July and says “could be”.
What is the position today ( 8 September), RoS?
Just because an outfit calls itself “globalresearch”, RoS, doesn’t mean that its outpourings are the fruit of researchers.
Who are their “researchers”? As I’ve said before, if you go onto gloabalresearch’s website you will be be met by a wall of non-transparency.
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A weak and quite honestly pathetic reply, stick to preaching grammar it suits you better.
RepublicOfHolocaustDenial
“Perhaps only MPs sitting in English, Welsh and Northern Irish constituencies should be able to vote on the outcome of the negotiations (and a vote there will be)?
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PERHAPS?
Hedging your bets their, so if it goes either way you can say I told you so, a bit of “DEEP THINKING” going on there.”
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I think you’re trying to say that Westminster MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies should be able to vote on the outcome of negotiations between London and a future independent Scotland.
Thanks for the clarification.