There is currently a major propaganda blitz by arms and security industries to convince us was are in a “new cold war”, and therefore should be spending even more ludicrous sums of money on weapons of mass destruction. Here are a few simple facts.
a) Russia is not a great power. Its total GDP is about the same as Spain’s – and Spain is pretty knackered. Russia has even less economic clout as a basis for world domination than the UK.
b) Russia’s economy is not diversified. It is over-dependent on raw commodity production and export. Its distribution of wealth is even worse than ours, although the Tories are doing their best to catch up. We have a totally false popular impression of Russian wealth because a few oligarchs have most of the money – and export it straight to the West. Capital flight is a huge problem for the Russian economy.
c) Russia is no threat to the UK and never has been. Centuries of Russophobia are entirely baseless. The idea of a defensive posture against Russia is ludicrous as there is no threat. Churchill, incidentally, asked Truman to nuke Moscow. A nuclear attack would be the only realistic way Russia could attack the UK – and the only thing that could make that possible are the mad calls for cold war and more weapons currently being heard in the West. None of which is to say it would be militarily sensible to attack Russia, as history shows. But Russia’s aggressive potential is very limited indeed. It will not be long before Poland plus the Baltic states are economically stronger than Russia.
None of this is to say Russia cannot continue to bully those very weak states which neighbour it. I have no time for Putin’s aggressive nationalism. But his position is fundamentally weak and his powerbase very limited. Neither the left nor the right in the UK (and in this comments section) want to hear this. The right constantly exaggerate Russia as a threat to boost their political interests and military funding. The left want desperately to believe in Putin as a strong counter to the West, as indicated by the ludicrous analyses that the Syria conflict was all about Russia’s decrepit and worthless Black Sea Fleet.
How to handle relations with Russia is not quite as much of a conundrum as it sounds, as Putin’s vaulting ambition is severely limited by his economic constraints. He is feeling that severely now, and it is nothing to do with the token and pointless economic sanctions. Russia desperately needs economic and political form – but Putin’s hand is only strengthened by the bellicose nonsense which enables him to appeal to the powerful atavistic strand in modern Russian social culture. I remain of the view that internationally supervised, genuinely fair referenda in Eastern Ukraine should be the way forward. That should include a new and properly conducted referendum in the Crimea, including free campaigns. It should be made plain that there will be a fast track into the EU for the Ukraine at the end of that process, after the secession of any districts that wish to join Russia.
Je
Giggle – a ranking that gives the Russian military virtually the same score as the US military is ludicrous. The ranking of the Indian army is even more crazy. Oh well. The point is, that the arms industry and security industry have every interest in promoting this “arms race threat” bullshit. One thing we learnt when the iron curtain fell in the pre-Putin years when there was good access, was that the spooks and security analysts had been massively exaggerating the extent and technical capabilities of the Soviet arsenal. Its al happening again.
a) Russia is not a great power. Its total GDP is about the same as Spain’s – and Spain is pretty knackered.
So what, doesn’t relate necessarily to the well being of a country/it’s people on how much money/material wealth they have.
What’s a great power, a happy people enjoying what they do.
TonyM
I have no Russophobia – I have no fear of it at all. I have a deep love for Russia and the Russians and long for them to live in a country where the benefit of that great economic potential is realised in a way that is much more fairly spread across society. The ability of people like you to ignore the extreme extreme corruption and inequality of wealth of the Putin regime is hilarious, as you think you are coming from the “left”.
Very funny.
Compare and contrast:
“a large, mostly self-sufficient, rural population whose output isn’t marketed and which isn’t therefore reflected in GDP figures” (MJ at 20h35)
and
“It’s timber, meat, dairy products, fruit – a whole nation’s GDP-worth of useful stuff.” (MJ at 23h04).
Make your mind up!
Its not how much you pay, its what you get for it.
Tanks
Russia 15,500
UK 407
Fighters/Interceptors:
Russia 736
UK 84
Fixed-Wing Attack Aircraft
Russia 1,289
UK: 178
Total Naval Strength:
Russia 352
UK: 66
http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=United-Kingdom
http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Russia
Mary
“Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country’s already bloated deficit.”
Yes, Mary, we already know that. But what you probably don’t know is that the Troika calculations of Greece’s monetary trajectory have factored in those maturities.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
But that’s bye-the-bye. Poster “MJ” was having a go at the European Union and not Goldman Sachs. Hence my question to him:
“… could MJ perhaps explain to which of Greece’s “material and cultural assets” has the EU helped itself?
A stab at a monetary quantification of those “material and cultural asssets” would also be helpful.”
It was kind of you to attempt to reply on MJ’s behalf, but before doing so you should have read the question more carefully.
Feel like another stab at answering?
Je
You appear to be living in 1945. The dreadful technology of killing is very advanced these days. Huge amounts of outdated steel is of limited use.
I heard that the oil price is being lowered in order to put pressure on Russia. The falling oil price (Brent Crude Oil Futures now 82.01$/barrel), together with sanctions has created problems for Russia.
‘The ruble has fallen by almost 30 per cent against the dollar this year, with all of the fall coming since June, when oil prices began to slide and geopolitical tensions increased.’
Falling oil prices, sanctions push Russia to brink of recession
I wonder why compliant Russian leaders like Gorby and Yeltsie avoided the ire of the West. Not much of a mystery there, and I think it’s why Putin is so popular at home. He don’t take any crap and to make it worse he’s bellicose and it seems genuine, not trumped up for the home crowd. Russian’s have been xenophobic for some time and especially when they were a top dog and now they’re underdogs they double-down on the National Pride.
Isn’t nationalism/patriotism, no matter it’s origin or intent, a force that has a life of it’s own, like mob violence and lynchings by people who individually would not contemplate without peerage looking on and approving/disapproving.
This is a major problem that is only exacerbated by economic truncheons like TPIP, a direct attack against Russia’s long game.
Craig – They’re well aware of that. They specifically say:
“The GFP list makes use of over 50 factors to determine each nation’s Power Index (“PwrIndx”) score. This provides the final ranking and allows smaller, technologically-advanced, nations to compete with larger, lesser-developed ones. “
Je
ie this disguises woeful backwardness and makes poor countries look better
And Russia’s arms industry is enormously capable and advanced. Look up BrahMos-II and the Sukhoi PAK FA.
“ie this disguises woeful backwardness and makes poor countries look better” That’s the exact opposite of what they said.
Craig @ 10:02pm
“If you wanted to escape right wing government you would hardly join Hungary.”
Hmmm … the present “right-wing” govt in Hungary doesn’t seem to be all that bad:
http://rt.com/op-edge/203151-hungary-independent-politics-west/
Neil
Perhaps if you tried some sources other than Russia Today you would realise they are really very nasty. If like the Russian-paid propagandist who wrote that article your measure of “not that bad” is compliant to Putin, you might be right.
“I heard that the oil price is being lowered in order to put pressure on Russia”
Yes. Saudi Arabia is dumping large quantities of cheap oil on the market.
MJ it is indeed. But one interesting effect of that is to bugger up the US fracking industry, which is I think more probably the Saudi goal than the Russians. The low price might well collapse some of the fracking enterprises in the US, but won’t substantially impact Russian production.
Actually, Russia’s economy is considerably larger than Spain’s, 54% in 2013 according to the World Bank, 85% on a purchasing power parity basis according to the CIA. That’s not counting another three-quarters of a trillion for members of the Russian trade area, including Kazakhstan, Belorus, etc.
And comparing Russia’s GDP with that of a Western nation doesn’t tell you much about relative military power. What after all does the US’s mighty $18 trillion GDP consist in?
Amost 40 percent is accounted for by real estate, finance, insurance, state and local government and healthcare. How much does manufacturing account for? Well not much, i.e., 6%.
Most cars built in the US are snapped together from parts manufactured in the Third World. Most electronics come from China or elsewhere in Asia (even many parts used by military contractors), likewise textiles, clothing and shoes.
But when it comes to rockets, nukes, aircraft and submarines, Russia is truly a great power upon whom the United States currently depends for transportation of American crew to the International Space Station and for rocket motors for most of their commercial satellite launches.
Moreover, Russia is engaged in a huge military build up, clearly a response to the positioning of NATO bases and missiles on Russia’s borders.
The other day Putin warned that EU Commie Borroso that he could “take Kiev in two weeks.” He could probably take Berlin and Paris in a couple of months, unless things went nuclear, in which case it would be goodbye to civilization.
If the West does not want the expense of massive rearmament, they’d better seek an accommodation with Russia that would include living up to the promise that NATO would not assimilate Eastern Europe. But obviously no such back-down is intended. Instead, the EU is stupidly baiting Russia with sanctions imposed on the pretext of Russia’s alleged responsibility for shooting down MH-17, an atrocity almost certainly committed by the Nazi-back Kiev junta so beloved of the West.
And lo,here do we not have Habbabkuk..?
The Pavlovian ball-licking slave to all authority-any authority-even as said authority herds all the untermenscnen(and Habba’s own friends and family)into the virtual digitized barbed-wired camp of tortured quiescense,on behalf of the maddened military-industrial-media complex.
Because his line manager told him to.
Habba probably even held the gate open for them-as his puritanical fire-eyes burned brightly with career ascendance.
Keep sucking those balls -without question- Habba hmm?
US manufacturing, at 6% of GDP, totals just over $1 trillion. Russian manufacturing, at 16% of GDP totals about $320 billion. But if you consider that it now costs the US over a trillion dollars to build th F35 fighter jet and fly it for a generation, one has to wonder how much more lethal stuff they really have than the Russians. And the Russians appear to collaborate extensively with the Chinese who have, it is said, stolen most US nuclear and other military secrets and can reverse engineer the F35 at maybe, half, a quarter or one tenth the cost per unit.
The indications are that US-NATO aim to smash Russia and then China while opportunity still, they think, exists. But in fact, the opportunity, if it ever existed, has almost certainly passed. We seem, therefore, to be in the very dangerous situation of living with a corrupt, decadent and declining empire thrashing out like a wounded snake in a doomed attempt to hang on to its dominant status, rather than striving to create a world system in which the US and its Western allies could live comfortably when they are no longer able to terrorize the world.
“Russia never posed a threat to Britain,” True.
Iraq also never posed a threat to Britain in the past, but it did not stop Tony Blair to help George Bush in slaughtering nearly one million Iraqi civilians for oil and Israel, while turning Arab world’s richest an most socialist nation into Europe’s Dark Age nation.
Libya also never posed a threat to Britain in the past, but it did not stop David Cameron to help Nicolas Sakozy and Barack Obama in slaughtering over 20,000 Libyan civilians for oil and Israel, while turning Africa’s richest an most socialist nation into Europe’s Dark Age nation.
French Jewish journalist and political activist, Bernard-Henri Levy, was the driving force behind the former French half-Jewish President Nicolas Sarkozy’s war on Libya to remove Qaddafi from power. In November 2011, speaking at the first national convention in Paris, organized by the French Israel Lobby, the ‘Council of Jewish Organization of France’, Levy boasted that he lead the anti-Qaddafi campaign because it was a Jewish thing to do.
“What I have done all these months, I did as a Jew. And like all the Jews of the world, I was worried. Despite legitimate anxiety is an uprising to be welcomed with favor, we were dealing with one of the worst enemy of Israel,” said Levy.
http://rehmat1.com/2012/09/18/bernard-levy-qaddafi-was-an-enemy-of-israel/
‘There is absolutely no significant proportion of the Ukrainian population which wishes to “rejoin Hungary” which has a totally different language.’
That was certainly the case under the old regime in Kiev- whether it stays that way is arguable, given that the new regime in Kiev has gerrymandered the electoral districts so that the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia no longer has any representation in the Kiev parliament-
http://www.politics.hu/20140901/ethnic-hungarian-party-slams-new-election-law-ukraine/
Poroshenko and Yatseniuk here are pulling the same trick that successive Unionist governments at Stormont did in relation to the electoral districts in Derry/Londonderry.
Craig,
I appreciate your response:-
“Courtenay
Whether the world is better off multipolar or not – and I would agree with you it is – does not rule out the fact that Russia is not a great power. And no amount of non-monetised beetroot transactions as posited by MJ make it a great power too.
Yes it has enormous economic potential, but awful governance prevents that from being realised. The capital flight rather than investment is part of it. If you simply sell off all your massive mineral wealth and stick all the money in oligarch’s bank accounts in Geneva or London, you don’t develop and economy.
The Putinistas here are far far removed from cold reality.”
However let me respond in as best the detail I can in 5 point detail.
1. Russia has a gas export deal with China. This will contribute to the Ruble’s rise. This is a deal that is worth multi-billions. So, if Europe wants to make itself be played by the US/ NATO – there remains outlets that Russia has and responses that China is prepared to facilitate for mutual advantage outside the US/NATO construct. All of this boils down to that Europe still has heavy dependence on Russian gas.
2. The US is manipulating oil prices for long-term political objectives. This process impacts investor confidence in Russia and has currency ( Ruble) implications. If there then is a massive run on the Ruble then this serves well US policy objectives.
3. The fact of devaluation of the Ruble will be a gift for Russian exporters, but there will be a massive impact on Russian oil companies (i.e. they cost domestic expenses in Rubles – but sell in dollars). This will have a huge impact on Russian banks and the Russian financial system.
4. The US hegemonic objective is to use sanctions to block Russia from being able to raise Western capital in a time of constructed financial crisis. This relates to US debt and any foreign debt designated in foreign currency. The US State Department and US foreign policy fully understands the game and the global financial process.
5. When 1 to 4 is played out – then if there is a steep Ruble decline – then all – Craig – can then understand that there is – design – process – and consequences.
Do come back to me with your ideas and I shall respond in a timely way.
Respectfully,
Courtenay
Buy beetroot futures.
It’s good for you!
What are the health benefits of beetroot?http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/277432.php
I remain of the view that Dmitry Orlov ( http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk ) has a much better and rounded view of Putin and Russia than Mr Murray.
Just read that Russia’s central bank has removed the soft peg to the € and the $.
I s’pose it’s like taking your economy off of autopilot.Gives you more control.
Both Russia and China are trying to take the US$ out of their business.
Craig is right about big chunks of steel not being in vogue.Sanctions have long been the US weapon of choice.They sound so humane and yet hundreds of thousands can die as a result.
“The currency wars” have been hotting up for a while now and were predicted and written about by Jim Rickards.At the end of the day,men and steel will be sent in to sweep up afterwards.You have corporate USA attacking Europe with TTIP while they attack Asia with TPP.So called trade agreements that break down your defence and sovereignty without so much as a shot being fired.
As for UK GDP,it’s a joke isn’t it ? We count income from drugs and prostitution and the bulk comes from “the City” and their manipulation of the money markets.I wonder what our position would be if that was taken out of the equation?
The property market in London has benefited from Russian money.Of course we don’t want a Cold War. Unfortunately we have special relationships which mean we don’t have our own foreign policy.Westminster follows the runaway train that Obama’s America has become.
Putin definitely doesn’t want war,but he is no paper tiger.He’s in a league of his own when you compare him to his counterparts in the other G20 nations.
As Victoria Nuland made clear back in February we have witnessed a long-planned regime-change which at that time had already cost the US state $5 billion.
With hardly a squeek from our media and politicians, Ukraine’s new rulers have graduated from staves, chains and molotov cocktails to small calibre munitions, then, as the so called “Anti Terror Operation” has unfolded, to mortars and large callibre howitzers, air-launched ordnance and missiles, cluster munitions, white phosphorous and Tocha B (400kg warhead) missiles. The book of evidence grows by the day.
Despite repeated news stories about a Russian invasion we have yet to see photographic evidence of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Recent images of a large convoy of unmarked and likly Russian military vehicles in Donetsk are the nearest thing to evidence of a Russian invasion. Hardly “Shock and Awe”.
In the meantime our media has pretended that what is happening in Ukraine is all caused by Putin. He has been given the Saddam Hussein / Muammar Gaddafi treatment, always the prelude to US led agression.
Putin in the meantime seems to have avoided a knee-jerk “RTP” style response, despite sanctions and provokations from the US/EU axis and the clamour for tough military response from many Russians. Despite, or maybe because of this his popularity at home is at a level that can only be dreamed of by our own leaders.
We are expeced to be blind to the resurgence of Banderism and evidence of a significant strand of publicly expressed sentiment in Ukraine which seeks to wipe out “Russian cockroaches”.
The people of Donetsk and Lugansk feel threatened and have made it clear, first by referendum and then by a successful partisan resistance that they do not consent to rule by an unelected, unconstitutional junta in Kiev.
There has been substancial societal support from Russians and others. I have no doubt that they receive covert support from the Russian Federation, just as the Mexicans would have, from the US, if the Russian Federation had staged a coup in Mexico and then spent several months shelling the dissenters.
In the meantime Putin has time after time, invited resolution through dialogue.
“Colleagues, given the global situation, it is time to start agreeing on fundamental things. This is incredibly important and necessary; this is much better than going back to our own corners. The more we all face common problems, the more we find ourselves in the same boat, so to speak. And the logical way out is in cooperation between nations, societies, in finding collective answers to increasing challenges, and in joint risk management…
…We are well aware that the world has entered an era of changes and global transformations, when we all need a particular degree of caution, the ability to avoid thoughtless steps. In the years after the Cold War, participants in global politics lost these qualities somewhat. Now, we need to remember them. Otherwise, hopes for a peaceful, stable development will be a dangerous illusion, while today’s turmoil will simply serve as a prelude to the collapse of world order…
…Yes, of course, I have already said that building a more stable world order is a difficult task. We are talking about long and hard work. We were able to develop rules for interaction after World War II, and we were able to reach an agreement in Helsinki in the 1970s. Our common duty is to resolve this fundamental challenge at this new stage of development.”
The absence of credible images of Russian wrought destruction is evidence that on these issues the actions of the Russian Federation match the rhetoric of it’s present leaders.
Just a reminder here of why ethnic Russians are afraid of the coup-installed Kiev.
“Incredible in Ukraine!” (4mins)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UOhBk748vHs
Most bear attacks occur when the animal is defending itself against anything they perceive as a threat to themselves or their territory. Bears do not preempt or anticipate evasion or rape or slaughter, massacre and murder.
For instance, bear sows can become extremely aggressive if they feel their cubs(children) are threatened. Any solitary bear is also likely to become agitated if surprised or cornered, especially while eating.
Craig contributes to the world an acute and severely capable intimation that true power is a function of skill, talent and capability without combative and destructive elements.
Nationalism promotes the idea that the Russian people form a cohesive nation and national identity in much the same way as in Scotland, closely linked to the cause of Scottish home rule and Scottish independence, and is also the driving ideology of the Scottish National Party,
Russia did pose a real threat to the UK during the cold war, as a kid I would often go to the petrol station at the top of the hill, sneaking to inflate my bike tyres with free air.
The petrol station was next to a GPO Microwave tower carrying UK defence comms, as well as phone calls BBC1 & ITV. Many years later I discovered the garage was a russian front, in fact a large IED, designed to annihilate the UK comms system, should the order ever be received. There were others.
my problem at the moment, is not that I trust/don’t trust an ex-KGB in the Kremlin, it’s just that I don’t trust the openly world-undermining facile words & rabid deeds of the opposing state, now led by a nice guy who’s mother and father allegedly met at a CIA Language training school in Hawaii… and who ‘holidayed’ in AF/PAK border in the 80’s. His mum allegedly helped NED/USAID ‘do a Ukraine’ in Indonesia …
whoever you vote for “they” get in!
speaking of voting, did we all catch the Telegraph news that SNP activists are trying
to destroy strictly by voting for someone related to a sportist? What’s “strictly”?, maybe the sock-puppets could explain.
Yes I remember that ‘large IED’ – it was at the top of Crystal Palace Park Hill was it not. The idea shook the boots of the British Intelligence A gent see MI6.
To preempt such scares MI6 and ‘Robert’ the electronics genius, bless him, came up with a plot divulged by Tony Blair’s former aide Jonathan Powell who said the UK was behind the plot to spy on Russians with a device hidden in fake plastic rock.
The Britain’s ambassador in Moscow at the time, Tony Brenton, denied the government had been involved in covert activities. He said ‘MI6 had better things to do with their time.’
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/19/fake-rock-plot-spy-russians