Labour voters are switching straight to Tory as second preference and Tory straight to Labour in Scottish local government by-elections held under the STV system. These are not opinion polls, they are real elections.
I was shown results and transfer sheets yesterday in the margin of the SNP vetting assessment of potential candidates which I was attending. Unfortunately I did not have a chance to copy down the figures, but the pattern was clear.
For those unfamiliar with single transferable vote, you mark the ballot paper 1,2,3 in the order you prefer the candidates. What is now becoming clear is that Labour voters tend to put the Tories at 2, and Tories put Labour as 2. I have been arguing for years that there are no significant policy differences between Labour and Tory – it is a fake choice. I will never forget at the count in Clackmannan the Labour and Tory councillors and their wives all celebrating together, all looking well-heeled and arrogant and entitled, impossible to tell apart.
That the few remaining Labour voters put the Tories as second preference, instead of the Greens, SNP or Liberal Democrat, shows that the core Labour support base is largely Blairite. Which explains why the ultra-Blairite Jim Murphy, scion of the far right Henry Jackson Society, is set to become Labour Party leader in Scotland. It is also interesting that Tory voters are happy to give second preferences to Labour, recognising that Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, Tess Jowell and Harriet Harman – every one a millionaire – are doughty protectors of the rich and the established order.
I haven’t been able to find a website that records local byelection results including the transfers – some results are listed on politicalbetting.com but only give the final result after all transfers. If anyone can find the data online I would be grateful. I should love to see an analysis from James Kelly on this one.
For clarification, particular sparsity of blog posts at the moment is because I am trying to reduce Sikunder Burnes from 245,000 words (it was 260,000) to 180,000 for publication, which is hard work. It is not because I am planning world domination.
Airdrieonian 1.26pm
Nail. Head.
Corbett Report Episode 298 – Gladio B and the Battle for Eurasia
‘Operation Gladio B’–the continuation of the old NATO Gladio program–covers a tangled web of covert operatives, billionaire Imams, drug running, prison breaks and terror strikes. Its goal: the destabilization of Central Asia and the Caucasus. In this presentation to Studium Generale in Groningen on November 19, 2014, James Corbett lifts the lid on this operation, its covert operatives, and the secret battle for the Eurasian heartland.
http://www.corbettreport.com/episode-298-gladio-b-and-the-battle-for-eurasia/
KingOfWelshNoir
“Iain Orr,
Do you really admire Phil and Habbabkuk because they ‘both argue aggressively and employ ad hominem arguments’?”
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I think you’ll find – if you read Iain Orr’s contribution carefully – that he was not expressing admiration but, rather, the view that different perspectives add value to this blog.
Is that a point of view to which you would take exception?
Guano
“The blog is infested with shills and trolls for the Urizen, FCO, neo-colonial vision.”
_________________
It is interesting – and dismaying – to have to note that your use of the word “infested” appears to echo the utterings of some Israeli minister or other who compared Arabs to vermin (“cockroaches” was the exact word, I believe) as well as the utterings of various Nazis at the time (about Jews).
You are probably in good company HERE, Guano, but all you all THERE? 🙂
It is interesting to note
OldMark
“‘The point of the piece – based on the Serbian example – is to prognosticate the economic “opportunity loss” likely to occur as result of Russia’s foreign policy adventurism and the Western reaction thereto.’
I’d agree with that Habby- it’s prognostication filtered via a prism of neocon wishful thinking.”
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I’m not sure where you get the “wishful thinking” bit from, Old Mark.
Could you reproduce the bits from Mr Sikorski’s piece which make you think that?
Does anyone really care if Iain Orr plays “Devils Advocate” (no offence mean’t Iain).
Afterall we’ve been on this blog long enough to know who play whom in the script.
Oh no you can’t Oh yes we can.
Jews rally in Paris suburb to protest rise in anti-Semitism • By JOSEPH STRICH and Reuters Hundreds of Jews gathered Sunday in Creteil, to protest a violent racially motivated attack last week in the Paris suburb, after the interior minister admitted that anti-Semitic threats and incidents have more than doubled so far this year in France.
Speaking before a crowd of around 600 protesters, Roger Cukierman President of CRIF, called on the government to do more to address the problem.
“We feel that something has changed: it is no longer just graffiti or minor incidents. These are death threats [against the Jewish community],” he told BFM TV.
http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Jews-rally-in-Paris-suburb-to-protest-rise-in-anti-Semitism-383949
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It would appear the mood has changed in France, towards the Jewish community with many leaving for Israel.
I wonder why the French are turning against the them?
RepublicOfDubiousOrigin
“Does anyone really care if Iain Orr plays “Devils Advocate” (no offence mean’t Iain).
Afterall we’ve been on this blog long enough to know who play whom in the script.”
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What’s with the “we’ve been on this blog long enough”, RPDO?
As far as I can remember, you popped up less than six months ago – unless, of course, you were posting as someone else before that and have forgotten to inform us of your change of moniker….?
RepublicOfFriendshipTowardsAll
“It would appear the mood has changed in France, towards the Jewish community with many leaving for Israel.
I wonder why the French are turning against the them?”
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Yes, I was wondering that too.
Since you raised it, though – any ideas?
Do regale us!
Craig; My sympathies. It must be painful to excise 65,000 words. Is that your idea or editor?
Here’s a list of Scottish newspaper sales from August 2014 till present.
———————-
The Scottish Sun: 232,541
Daily Record: 195,223
Scottish Daily Mail: 90,098
Scottish Daily Express: 45,918
Daily Star of Scotland: 40,161
The Herald: 37,728*
The National: 36,000 (worst single day’s recorded sales)
The Scotsman: 27,208*
The Times: 18,067
i: 17,823
Daily Telegraph:18,404 to 16,449
Daily Mirror: 16,150
The Guardian: 9,261
Independent: 2,517
Financial Times: 2,244
———————————-
Remarkably the National, come in at 7th position, an astonishing feat for a tabloid that’s a mere two weeks old, and whose worst single day’s sales amounted to 36.000 copies sold.
Its an impressive start for a paper still finding its feet. It’ll be interesting to see if parent company Newsquest puts some money behind it, and what’ll happen if it does.
Courtesy of WingsoverScotland:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/in-with-a-bullet/#more-64289
Habbabkuk
I did read his comment carefully, that’s why I’m puzzled by it. It makes no sense to say you and Phil ‘add considerably to the value’ of the blog and then include in the list of reasons for this the assertion that you deploy ad homs. Surely he must mean you don’t?
And no, I don’t take exception to the spirit of his post.
Tell you what, you YESERS don’t half have a chip on your shoulder. Just give it rest, you took part in a democratic process, the vote didn’t go your way, it’s done, finished. That was the deal- talk about kicking about the arse out of it!!
I have noticed the occasional link with Hab’s diatribes but haven’t yet reversed my muscle memory habit of scrolling by. Have I missed anything of import?
“Yes, I was wondering that too.”
“Since you raised it, though – any ideas?”
“Do regale us!”
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Habbhasalltheanswers.
Oh I’m sure you’re better placed than I am, to know the answer to that one.
“Tell you what, you YESERS don’t half have a chip on your shoulder. Just give it rest, you took part in a democratic process, the vote didn’t go your way, it’s done, finished. That was the deal- talk about kicking about the arse out of it!!”
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We haven’t even begun to kick the arse out of it, as you so eloquently put it.
What, sitting around furiously tapping away at your keyboard, thinking that’s going to change anything?
Pfft!!
Wonderful analysis of current geopolitical goings on, political, economic/energy, military etc.
From about 4.45.
http://tarpley.net/cia-chechen-terrorists-aka-isis-attack-in-grozny-as-putin-gives-key-address-in-kremlin/
Essential background reading:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175050/pepe_escobar_welcome_to_pipelineistan
Latest on the Turkey/Russia deal:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article40404.htm
Putin makes speech in Moscow:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/vladimir-putins-annual-address-to.html
Hollande Makes Surprise Visit to Moscow for Chat With Putin:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hollande-makes-surprise-visit-to-moscow-1417880591
In the past week US Congress has voted powers to the President to declare war, and Russia has set up a Defence Committee which will be the government in the event of war. The Americans already have something like this.
The British are setting up a military base in Bahrain.
Another excellent resource for keeping up with what’s going on:
http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/
The latest alert from the Medialens editors, ie chapter and verse.
http://www.medialens.org/index.php/alerts/alert-archive/2014/782-grievous-censorship-by-the-guardian-israel-gaza-and-the-termination-of-nafeez-ahmed-s-blog.html
Yes. It is from StormClouds, but can anyone vett without shooting the messenger. IOW’s does it sound authentic?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUEHsSWvrGVSIA63OV3J6vhA&v=boAYuOgqzJQ
Some interesting responses to my defence of Phil and Habbabkuk against unfair suggestions of trolling. [I have nothing against trolls… in their right place: under bridges rather than on websites – see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Billy_Goats_Gruff%5D
Macky @ 10.45 am: I have engaged in rational debate with both. It’s not difficult. KingofWeshNoir @ 12.39 pm I don’t admire aggressive or ad hominem styles of argument: they are often counter-productive if you really want to change minds, not just vent spleen. Quite often they are resorted to in frustration at what is seen as stupidity or wilful blindness in others; or when provoked. So, I can live with them as debating styles, especially over subjects on which some participants feel strongly. But it saddens me when comments here are vicious in intent and intemperate or crude in language. That makes me reluctant to encourage some friends – unused to this rough trading of politically-motivated insults – to contribute comments on Craig’s lively, well-presented and (for some) provocative views on politics and society.
Guano @ 12.48 pm has served us all well with his reminder of Blake’s prophetic writings. I live quite close to where, during a solitary walk in Peckham Rye, the young Blake saw: ‘A tree filled with angels, bright angelic wings bespangling every bough with stars.’ Those who have not yet performed their act of unexpected kindness for today might well go NOW to http://www.blakesociety.org/blakecottage/ and help to save the cottage in Felpham, Sussex, where William and Catherine Blake lived while he was writing `Milton` and other great works.
” they are often counter-productive if you really want to change minds,”
I don’t see the needle moving no matter the style or intent. But lambasting a target does seem to stiffen the resolve to double-down on resistance to change. Human nature is what it is.
Conservative MP Nigel Mills has issued an apology for playing popular mobile puzzle game Candy Crush Saga during a Commons committee hearing.
Pictures were published in the Sun newspaper of the MP playing the game on his tablet during a Work and Pensions Committee session on pensions.
Mr Mills, a committee member, had initially admitted playing and told the newspaper he would try not do it again.
But he later apologised “unreservedly” for his behaviour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30375609
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Ah Yes the “hard at work” Conservatives, now I know what they do to earn their hefty salaries.
He finished off with the obligatory apology, you know the one when they’re caught doing something, like bumping expenses, the apology makes it all better.
Bless his cotton socks he’s really just misunderstood.
Did you know? if you watch this you will know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHIqPJ39NzY#t=148
Coalition ministers have met Google executives 54 times since the General Election – an average of more than once a month.
David Cameron held talks with the internet giant six times and Chancellor George Osborne five times over the past four years.
Culture Minister Ed Vaizey attended a total of 14 meetings, while former culture secretaries Maria Miller and Jeremy Hunt met the firm eight times between them.
The total of 54 meetings between June 2010 and March this year was disclosed in Whitehall department records.
The revelation will add to fears about the powerful US technology firm’s close links to the Government and ability to influence policy on contentious issues such as online child safety and copyright violation.
A music industry leader worried about Google’s hugely popular search engine providing access to piracy websites claimed the £223billion company came as close as possible to ‘sleeping with the Prime Minister’.
Google has been accused of using complicated cross-border accounting practices to avoid paying its fair share of corporation tax in Britain.
Last year it paid just £20.4million to the Treasury – after earlier admitting that its total UK revenues are £3.3billion.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2864745/How-Google-chiefs-met-Coalition-ministers-54-times-Fears-tech-giant-s-close-links-government.html
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Why would government officials need to meet with Google reps 54 times, it appears if you want to avoid paying tax cosy up to Westminster, as long as you let GCHQ read and store all Google traffic, profits will be excellent.
RepublicOfPerspiringDreams
“It would appear the mood has changed in France, towards the Jewish community with many leaving for Israel.
I wonder why the French are turning against the them?”
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That sounds a little like the old Nazi spiel of “they bring it on themselves”, doesn’t it.
Are you by any chance moving closer to another spot of Holocaust-denying?
The British public has endured the expenses scandal, a cabinet minister describing police officers as plebs and a Labour MP sending an allegedly snobby tweet about “white van men”. But for sheer chutzpah, the peers of the realm have potentially topped the lot.
It has emerged that a proposal to save taxpayers some money by making peers and MPs share a catering department has been rejected “because the Lords feared that the quality of champagne would not be as good if they chose a joint service”.
The disclosure, made last week by Sir Malcolm Jack, clerk of the Commons between 2006 and 2011, as he gave evidence to a governance committee examining how the palace of Westminster should be run, was met with gasps and open laughter.
The astonished chair of the committee, former home secretary Jack Straw, asked: “Did you make that up? Is that true?” Jack responded: “Yes, it is true.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/07/champagne-house-of-lords-reform-taxpayer
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Those greedy fat troughing b*stards really are taking the piss, how much longer are those unelected Lords going to ride rough shod over the common man.
You’ll never see a SNP Lord.
RepublicOfConfusedThoughts
“Coalition ministers have met Google executives 54 times since the General Election – an average of more than once a month.”
……
“Last year it paid just £20.4million to the Treasury – after earlier admitting that its total UK revenues are £3.3billion.”
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Might the objective of all of those meetings have been to get Google to pay substantially more in taxes this year than it did last year, RoS.
We shall have to wait for the 2014 figures, won’t we.
Until then, RoS, better not to offer any hostages to fortune, we wouldn’t want you to end up with egg all over your face again, would we.
“That sounds a little like the old Nazi spiel of “they bring it on themselves”, doesn’t it.”
“Are you by any chance moving closer to another spot of Holocaust-denying?”
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Habbtherepeater.
Erm! You’ve already addressed this point at 3.42pm, have you been at the Kosher wine again?