The West cannot approach the problems of Syria, Ukraine or Iran without facing up to the question of its relationship with Putin’s Russia. That relationship is now severely dysfunctional and characterised by squabble and acrimony on a range of detail encompassing much of the globe.
Anti-Russian sentiment is now forming part of the ceaseless wave of militarist propaganda to which the media endlessly subjects us. There were particularly pointless pieces two days ago on all British broadcast media about one of the Royal parasites taking the salute at the 100th anniversary of some RAF squadron. Every week some military unit will have some anniversary. Plus the Second World War lasted fully six years, and as the 70th, 75th and 80th anniversaries are each to be commemorated of every happening during that war, there is never a single day with a shortage of excuse for some royal prat in a Ruritanian uniform to take a salute.
Both Sky and the BBC have recently run pieces on how the brave RAF squadrons protect us from the devastating Russian bomber threat. The alleged “problem” was that Russian aircraft fly along in international airspace close to British airspace. In other words, there is a major issue with Russian aircraft behaving perfectly legally. No mention was made of the fact that NATO aircraft do exactly the same thing to Russia, only many times more often. We saw jets scrambled to meet the “emergency” of Russian aircraft who were – err – flying along well North of Scotland and never entering British airspace at all. You were supposed to watch it and think how happy we are that the RAF are keeping us safe. I was left sobbing at the millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money I had just watched wasted for no reason at all.
Which is not to say that Russia is not a threat. Russia plainly is a threat to some of its immediate neighbours. Putin holds that parts of the Former Soviet Union with ethnic Russian populations should be absorbed into Russia. That was the cause of the attack on Georgia, the annexation of Crimea and the de facto annexation of parts of Eastern Ukraine. Putin’s motivation is sometimes hard to fathom, but certainly this use of military power against weak neighbours, with a definite ethnic agenda, is very popular with the Russian public. To Putin, it is more or less cost free, as Western corporate interests would be damaged by any positive action Western governments might take – the “sanctions” are almost entirely token. Putin is not mad enough to take on one of the former Soviet states which is now in NATO or the EU, so his possible future targets are severely limited.
Nor is it plain that Putin is “winning” in a strategic sense. Just three years ago, Russia had a pre-eminent influence throughout all of Ukraine. Now 70% of Ukraine has been lost forever to any Russian influence at all. That is a peculiar kind of victory. The economy of the Crimea plus Donbass is in disarray and even before the crisis, the GDP of the entire region was about the same as the GDP of Dundee. The whole exercise is yet another example of the thesis of J A Hobson, adopted by Lenin, that Imperialism benefits the military and political classes but not the Imperial nation as a whole. The Ukraine civil war has been good for Putin and the Russian military. It has done nothing for Russia.
It is coincidence that the Ukraine confrontation has coincided with a collapse in hydrocarbon prices. But the economic impact of that collapse has been stark and has highlighted Putin’s total failure in the most important task facing him – the diversification of the Russian economy. The failure to develop a viable manufacturing sector and to halt the extreme, Nigerian style levels of capital flight has condemned Russia to continuing Second World economic status. People take issue with my description of the Russian economy as the same size as the Spanish economy. I stand by it. Remember published economic data is historic, rather than reflecting the situation today. I am also unimpressed by attempts to disguise economic failure by using Purchasing Power Parity, rather than actual dollar values. PPP states that as cabbage is extremely cheap in Ekaterinburg, Russians are cabbage rich. So what?
Russia is no superpower. Its economy is the same size as Spain’s, and a good deal less diversified. It is a nationalistic kleptocracy. It has nonetheless a certain residual influence from its imperial past, and continuing Imperial present. Dagestan, Chechnya and Tatarstan remain colonies. Putin is extremely aware of that, which is why peaceful anti-imperial pro-independence campaigners from those countries receive heavy prison sentences, or simply get killed.
Undoubtedly the temporary economic difficulties caused by the oil price collapse have decreased Russian influence for a time. Russia went from being a major player in the Iran nuclear talks (remember the proposals about processing of Iranian fuel in Russia), to being in the end irrelevant. Russia’s impotence over Iran came from a realisation that the prospect of a return of Iranian oil to the open market would depress energy prices still further. But in Ukraine by virtue of force on the ground, and in Syria by simple virtue of being plainly right where the West has been horribly wrong, Russia remains an important player.
I have no time for the Assad regime. The current occupant is not so vicious as his father, but it remains a dictatorship, and I look forward to the day it passes. But you have to be crazed not to accept that the growth of vicious Islamic extremism means that it is necessary for Syria to be reunited under Assad and the dictatorship to survive another decade. That plainly is the lesser of a number of evils. There is no good solution.
Attempts to demonise the Assad regime over use of chemical weapons have been almost entirely unconvincing. The effort by the media to demonise “barrel bombs” – as though being eviscerated by a proper western made technological bomb is preferable to being eviscerated by a homemade bomb – has been bizarre. What is needed is an immediate halt to the funding of combatants by the USA, Saudi Arabia and their allies, and at least an internal acknowledgement that was what created ISIL in the first place. Russia should instead be authorised and funded by the UN to help enforce peace, and Russian troops should wear blue helmets. We then need a comprehensive peace deal which guarantees that the Assad regime will not pursue reprisal, and includes the return of the illegally occupied Golan Heights to Syria.
No other outcome can lead to a sustainable solution which can halt the flow of refugees compelled to leave their homeland. The first step towards such a deal must be a summit meeting between the western powers and Putin. Ideally, Ukraine should also be on the agenda. The obvious solution there is a major UN force followed, after a year of peace, by a genuine referendum on joining Russia in each of the various districts of Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea.
I am not crazy and I realise that none of this will happen. What will happen instead is that the West will intensify the civil war in both Syria and Ukraine. In Syria, the neo-cons of the Tory Party will ally with the Blairite Red Tories and the UK will join in, happily bombing away, killing thousands of civilians. Within three weeks of the parliamentary vote they will be massively bombing the Syrian army too because, we will be told, it is necessary to degrade Syrian ground defences to ensure the safety of our airmen. The flow of refugees will intensify.
One aspect of the refugee crisis nobody wishes directly to address is the ferocious grip that xenophobia and racism has on the cultures of Eastern Europe. This lies behind an interesting article in the Guardian by Irina Molodikova which sought to explain this in terms of resentment of historical conquest by the Ottoman Empire. That is a peculiarly Eastern European line of defence, but fails to wash as it goes nowhere to explain the rampant anti-semitism in countries like Poland, Lithuania and Hungary, nor the abuse suffered by black people.
I have personally witnessed extraordinary degrees of racism throughout Eastern Europe. It is a cultural trait common to the otherwise conflicting nationalisms of Poland and Russia. It should not be forgotten that Russia – which is again officially encouraging its citizens to breed as it needs population – is making no significant offer to accept Syrian refugees. I continually hear stories of the everyday experiences with violent racism and discrimination suffered by Uzbek workers in Russia.
I am conscious this lengthy article rambles through a number of major issues. But the problems we face are organic, complex and linked. Any neat analysis is bound to be false, and any neat dichotomy wrong. Those who believe “Putin Bad, West Good” or “West Bad, Putin Good” are fools, just as those who believe “Islam Good, Christians Bad” or “Christians Good, Islam Bad” are fools. We need a deeper understanding. We are about to face a deluge of war propaganda. A genuine understanding is the true defence against it.
Uzbek, I think Craig was suggesting a process of stabilisation in the course of eventual reform as an alternative to a fiery civil war as a settlement process. Oppression is probably a likely effect whatever the process. “Lesser of two (or more) evils” is a pragmatic description.
Pravda’s criticism of Western capitalism seemed ridiculous in the 1970’s because it obviously did not fit the realities that those of us who lived in capitalist countries in those years experienced.
It took the fall of Communism and the behavior of capitalism once it no longer had to compete with Communism to teach us that capitalism only behaved relatively humanely as long as there was a system that it had to compete against.
John Goss,
I wanted to ask you whether your true name is Michael C#nt (oops sorry Chant)
Some might find it funny but I find it as demonstration of brutal indifference with lives of millions of starving and suffering Korean people http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/22/north-korea-friends-of-korea-michael-chant
“Uzbek, I think Craig was suggesting a process of stabilisation in the course of eventual reform as an alternative to a fiery civil war as a settlement process. Oppression is probably a likely effect whatever the process. “Lesser of two (or more) evils” is a pragmatic description.”
In some countries those so called “course of eventual reform” do not come for decades and decades. What this so called “stabilisation” does is strengthens oppressive dictatorships instead. Why would Syria be any different? Had not USSR helped to stabilise Syria back in 1970th. We are in 2015, but it seems to reforms have happened there eventually.
“It took the fall of Communism and the behavior of capitalism once it no longer had to compete with Communism to teach us that capitalism only behaved relatively humanely as long as there was a system that it had to compete against.”
I thought that booms and busts have happened all the way since our socio-economic form is called capitalism. So capitalists always behaved irresponsibly, causing misery to those whose budget could not get them through those busts years. Or are you saying that Warren Buffet have become more inhumane lately. From what I have read about him he was after profit and profit only in 1960th as much as in 2015.
Jemand, I apologised, but my apology appears to have been deleted. I had intended only to repeat the rather long copy-paste of one ‘Baal’, which has no comment whatsoever. That too, in the early ‘days’ of a new rather long and wide-ranging post by Craig.
Apologies again that due to a slip of the button your and, I think, Macky’s comments were unwittingly included.
Hope that clarifies.
Btw, I agree with your point about Islam in your comment above, and while atm Islam may manifest itself as the more aggressive of religions, would Chritianity have been at the root of killing rather more people over the centuries? I don’t know and I’m not a historian.
An apt on-topic article, highlighting some home-truths;
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-0a3e-Syria-The-lies-we-tell-ourselves#.VgQWQpcasrh
“Certainly these were c&p’d. I note Alcyone rarely gives a source for its opinions, ”
Banal Zevul, don’t hesitate to ask for a link next time I’m quoting, in case I have missed it.
As it happens, I prefer original thinking.
As to Syria, Assad is not the aggressor his father was, and he is there by popular consent.
Putin is there by even more popular consent. Yet the ‘Blame Putin’ tag like ‘Commies under the bed’ is childish cant that should be dismissed for what it is. Putin is a real statesman. But nobody outside of Russia and its allies will acknowledge this. So as not to just present my view (I have been watching Putin for a while) let him present an answer to a question put by a US reporter about Russi and Putin being the aggressor. Uzbek in the UK should watch it. I cannot see it changing his bigotry, but then the content of the answer should be challenged, not the individual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF-6TsqPoQs
” Declaring something illegal does not mean it is illegal. ”
Missing the point by a mile yet again John.
Why does Russia insist on putting it’s country so close to American military bases ? It’s just so inconsiderate.
John Goss
I recall you calling me being some kind of a suck puppet? But it was OK was not it?
And I also apologised for misspelling you possible surname. Whether it is you or not but Chant really derives surname change.
beth
If thousands of your countrymen have been fired in the back of their heads by Russian/Soviet NKVD just for simply wearing military uniform, I think you would have considered some kind of protection from this happening again. But then again, your name is beth, which suggest that your countrymen were probably been busy robbing poors in India and Africa at that time.
Does the US have a plan for world domination.
Yes or No.
Does Russia have a plan for world domination.
Yes or No.
Russia’s car industry is a perfect example of the lack of leadership and innovation in being able to put men, materials and technology together tp produce.
South Korea, Brazil, India, Mexico, Spain, Canada and even, very nearly, Thailand (!) manufactured more vehicles than Russia in 2014. Because demand absolutely bombed in 2015, Russia will probably produce fewer vehicles than Thailand this year.
Link (especially for Banal Zevul:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production
Does the US have a plan for a world of partnership.
Yes or No.
Does Russia have a plan for a world of partnership.
Yes or No.
@Herbie – I guess you have views that you’d like to share on those questions 🙂
I’d say “no” to both – both behave like aggressive imperialists, both are self-serving, and both operate a state security apparatus that allow psychopaths to climb to the top. Neither are interested in expanding democracy meaningfully to their respective citizens.
Jon
Just to be clear. You’re saying that the US has no plans for world domination.
That the US and Russia are as bad as one another, in this regard.
Is that correct?
Uzbek
“John Goss
I recall you calling me being some kind of a suck puppet? But it was OK was not it?”
______________________
He seems to have moved on to calling people “bigots” (when he’s not calling them fascists or racists.
His post to you at 16h45 (penultimate line) refers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It’s all very Stalinist, isn’t it – you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
Just as you can’t expect a President whose entire career was in the KGB to suddenly become a benevolent, peace-loving, democratic sort of chappie.
Herbie, wouldn’t Russia rather be an eagle than a snail?
In other words they can make as many plans to dominate the world as they like and Putin can dust them out of is drawer every morning but they simply haven’t the resources, do they? They have the deviousness, no?
(I hear Chiang kai Shek used to keep such plans to invade mainland China at one time 😉
Inspired by this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pey29CLID3I
Herbie
“Does the US have a plan for a world of partnership.
Yes or No.
Does Russia have a plan for a world of partnership.
Yes or No.”
______________________
As I know you both like to receive and give 🙂 clear answers, here are mine:
– to the 1st question : Yes
– to the 2nd question : No.
Hope that helps.
Sorry, Georgia started that war.
Georgia ‘started unjustified war’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8281990.stm
The the annexation of Crimea was in response to the EU/US backed coup.
I certainly don’t believe Putin is a good guy, the west is bad, but Russia looks to me as if it has reacted to US aggression.
Thanks Herbie. Not saying that the US has no plans for world domination, no – quite the other way around.
Both the US and Russia will undertake as much imperial conquest as they can get away with, either in financial or PR terms. I fear the US has a greater military reach, and thus will result in more suffering and conquest, but I’d not be minded to say that Russia was in some way more considerate as a result.
So broadly, yes, I’d say they are as bad as each other. I wonder whether my faith in the potential benevolence in the power of the state is slipping away these days, even from a socialist perspective, and that I am turning into an anarchist. Power seems to corrupt whoever has it.
Craig – I find your comment about barrel bombs quite shocking. I might have expected a comment like that from someone like Tony Blair, not you.
Barrel bombs are indescriminate weapons and Assad is dropping them on civilian areas. The death toll is horrific.
“Video showing the destruction caused when the helicopters dropped barrel bomb near Saad al-Ansari School in al-MashHad neighborhood at Aleppo, which resulted in the deaths and wound of dozens of people, including many women and children ”
https://www.facebook.com/syriahro/videos/10153680806288115/
“Photos showing the destruction caused when the helicopters dropped barrel bomb near Saad al-Ansari School in al-MashHad neighborhood at Aleppo, which resulted in the deaths and wound of dozens of people, including many women and children”
https://www.facebook.com/syriahro/posts/10153680848238115
Just one report from the Syrian Observatory for human rights from:
http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/09/about-20-deaths-and-tens-of-wound-in-a-barrel-bomb-dropped-on-a-neighborhood-in-aleppo-city/
“The Syrian Regime’s Barrel Bombs Kill More Civilians Than ISIS And Al Qaeda Combined “:
http://www.ibtimes.com/syrian-regimes-barrel-bombs-kill-more-civilians-isis-al-qaeda-combined-2057392
“List of Syrian Civil War barrel bomb attacks”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Syrian_Civil_War_barrel_bomb_attacks
Habby
Anything official to back up your claim that US policy is directed towards a world of partnership?
Thanks
There have been reports that jihadists are fighting in Ukraine on the government’s side.
In Midst of War, Ukraine Becomes Gateway for Jihad
https://theintercept.com/2015/02/26/midst-war-ukraine-becomes-gateway-europe-jihad/
BoldChechen Jihadis Leave Syria, Join the Fight in Ukraine
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/04/chechen-jihadists-leave-syria-join-the-fight-in-urkaine.html
So there are Jihadists fighting along side Neo-Nazis and Christian Taliban In Ukraine!
@Je ”the Syrian Observatory for human rights” is one man living in the UK.
The rebels are AL-Qaeda and have been the main opposition since 2012. I have no doubt that the Syrian army shell and bomb where they think the jihadists are but the jihadists also indiscriminately shell civilians in government held areas.
“The Syrian Regime’s Barrel Bombs Kill More Civilians Than ISIS And Al Qaeda Combined “:
Yeah, says AL-Qaeda.
Uzbek in UK—-wtf????? We don’t choose our names–they’re given to us as a baby. Fyi—I want Scottish Independence which to me means getting away from the monarchy.
So many atrocities have been committed in this world of hours. I think its important to mourn what has happened in the past but much more urgent to see what is happening in the present. Which country has caused havoc in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria? Which country has armed the terrorists in Syria? Which country do over 80% of Syrians think created ISIS?
@Beth ”Which country do over 80% of Syrians think created ISIS?”
You should read
Secret Affairs: Britain’s Collusion with Radical Islam by Mark Curtis.
http://www.markcurtis.info/
“Thanks Herbie. Not saying that the US has no plans for world domination, no – quite the other way around.”
Thanks, Jon.
That’s fair enough.
I think most observers would conclude that the US very certainly has plans for world domination.
Since we all inhabit the same planet and even anarchists will not escape its fate, best to focus on those with the big plans for us all, eh.
That’s what you’d normally expect sensible people to do, unless of course they agree with the US plans.