The Balance of Probabilities 1084


Unlike the famous chemical weapons “attack” portrayed by the BBC in Saving Syria’s Children, it does appear that in the latest incident at Idlib there was real horror inflicted by chemical attack of some kind. The question is who did it and why?

I am no fan of the Assad regime, and I have no problem using the word “regime” to describe it. Dictators do hold and win elections. I have lived in severe dictatorships and seen from the inside how they do it. The human rights abuses of the Assad regime have been well documented for decades.

But Bashar al Assad is neither stupid nor unsophisticated. Aided by Putin, he outwitted Obama by quickly giving up his chemical weapons to be destroyed and accepting transparency in verification. There is no justification for the destruction of Iraq, but if Saddam Hussein had been able to swallow pride as completely as Assad, he too could have had a very good chance of averting disaster.

Assad had seen his position go from strength to strength, thanks to Putin’s astute deployment of Russia’s limited military power. Militarily the balance had swung dramatically in Assad’s favour, while Trump had said the unsayable and acknowledged that putting Syria into the hands of Wahabbist crazies was not in the United States interest.

So I cannot conceive that Assad would risk throwing all of this away for the sake of a militarily insignificant small chemical weapons attack. It would be an act of the most extreme folly. It is not impossible – hubris is a great temptation to dictators – but given how Assad has played it so far, it seems out of character and extremely improbable. What is less improbable is a local battlefield decision by pro-Assad forces. In my close observation of dictatorial regimes, a fascinating feature is that they operate an image of the perfection of the state. They are highly adverse to admitting mistakes.

What did happen I do not profess to know. There are at least eleven major identifiable state and non-state forces involved in the fighting around Idlib. In going through them all and considering opportunity and motive for each, I continually find that those whose motive would be false flag stand to benefit a great deal more than those who might have been seeking military advantage.

I am therefore for now unconvinced that this was a deliberate use of chemical weapons by Assad forces. I do not rule it out, but it would take much more concrete evidence than currently offered to prove they did something so strongly and obviously against their own interest. But western governments and media have determined to make that the narrative, so the truth is, as so often in modern geo-politics, entirely incidental to the course of future events.


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1,084 thoughts on “The Balance of Probabilities

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  • Sharp Ears

    ‘But Bashar al Assad is neither stupid nor unsophisticated. Aided by Putin, he outwitted Obama by quickly giving up his chemical weapons to be destroyed and accepting transparency in verification. There is no justification for the destruction of Iraq, but if Saddam Hussein had been able to swallow pride as completely as Assad, he too could have had a very good chance of averting disaster.’

    I understood that there were no WMDs in Iraq. Hence Dr. Kelly’s murder.

    • bevin

      Craig is making a very peculiar argument today. It is all the more peculiar since the propaganda that he affects to take seriously is not meant for persons of his wit and experience: when the former Governor of the State of South Carolina- a byword for corruption, racism and cynicism since Locke wrote its first constitution- stands up before the TV cameras waving pictures of dead or pretending to be dead children, to the applause of the Amen Corner of the UNSC-France, under Hollande and Britain- nobody with an IQ above double figures is intended to be taken in.
      She is simply giving a signal that the war will go on.
      And go on it must, because if this latest US aggression is stopped here, in Syria, and the Syrian borders are restored to their proper limits then the whole world is changed.
      It is this, I suspect, it certainly cannot be the ‘evidence’, that gives Craig and others who know better pause and induces them to postpone judgement. They are aware that, should this mean war and a possible confrontation with Russia, we will be on the brink of the worst crisis since the Second World war, worse than Korea, worse than Vietnam because, on the one hand Russia and China know that to give in would be to surrender to insane threats of violence, while, on the other hand, the position of the US is so shaky that it understands that it will have to change its foreign policies and start contemplating the appalling prospect of peace and peaceful competition if it cannot continue its insane push towards Armageddon.
      The reality is that here the tail really is wagging the dog: US Foreign Policy is dictated by a faction, still all powerful as we see and Mr Bannon now understands, which pursues its balkanisation strategy in the Middle East in the interests of Israel, which it has, entirely for sordid domestic political calculations, adopted as its own.
      I am wrong to say ‘entirely.’
      There is one more factor: Washington is run by a caste which has run out of ideas beyond personal greed and the desire for power. The most powerful nation in the world sees no particular point in what it does, it has no long term objective except for the power to decide without explaining itself. Burke remarked that great empires and little minds went ill together. He was talking about British policy towards America, unaware that he was also prophesying the fate of America. And, let us hope otherwise, the planet.

      • Sharp Ears

        Yes that was Ms Nikki Haley waving the photos around. It reminded me of this.
        http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-israel-iran-idUSBRE88Q0GI20120928

        Bibi and his thuggish foreign minister, the ex nightclub bouncer Avigdor Liberman, have been stirring the pot.

        Putin slams Netanyahu over ‘unfounded accusations’ on Syria
        Moscow defends Damascus in ‘incident with chemical weapons’ after Israeli defense minister claims Assad was directly responsible
        http://www.timesofisrael.com/putin-slams-netanyahu-over-unfounded-accusations-on-syria/

        Putin puts them straight.

      • Loony

        You just can’t help yourself can you. Here you ostensibly commenting on the situation in Syria and yet are able to casually smear South Carolina. Why do actually know about South Carolina? Have you ever been there? Do you know people from South Carolina? Or does it just fit with your own preconceived prejudices.

        Some people claim that racism, sexism and Islamophobia are all products of ignorance and that the purveyors of opinions based on ignorance should be condemned. Luckily for you there would appear to be exceptions to this doctrine and in South Carolina you have identified such an exception – so do please carry on.

        • bevin

          I know a great deal about South Carolina.
          Do you know who Pitchfork Ben was? Or Wade Hampton? What Redemption was?

      • lysias

        Did somebody persuade Trump that, if he doesn’t follow the neocons’ policies, the Western economies will collapse?

        How can you conduct a war with such a threadbare justification when the American public has already lost trust in their leaders and their lies?

      • giyane

        Bevin

        If you can call headless chickens a ‘caste’. The usual word is dead meat.

    • craig Post author

      There were no WMDs. But Saddam unhelpfully kept playing silly buggers with Hans Blix at crucial moments, thus playing into Bush’s hands.

    • Beth

      Yes I was puzzled by that too…thought the whole point of it being an illegal war was that there were no WMD in Iraq.

  • Republicofscotland

    Assad, is in a similar mould to Saddam or Gaddafi. Both autocrats were engineered out of power, and into their graves after their usefulness came to an end.

    Now both Libya and Iraq, are in a fluid state, of violence and religious warfare, their infrastructures have been destroyed and their economies are in a bad way.

    The difference between those two dictators and Assad, is clear, Russia has intervened to bolster their long term ally, and the West/Israel and Saudi Arabia are finding it much harder to remove Assad due to that.

    Although Assad’s regime is not one of a democratic nature, I think its preferable to a Syria, destroyed and at constant war within, by factions supported from all corners.

    Beneficiaries of Assads removal in my opinion, would be, if I recall right those running the gaspipeline from Oman through Syria, Israel and its illegal strangle hold over the Golan Heights since 1967, (and its false laws over the area) would also like to see Assad removed (hence Habbs constant bleating of Assad=Bad.)

    Others to benefit in my opinion would be Saudi Arabia, Assad is Alawite, which I’m led to believe is Shia orientated. I’d imagine there’s plenty of Sunni Saudi money invested in removing Assad.

    • Habbabkuk

      “Although Assad’s regime is not one of a democratic nature, I think its preferable to a Syria, destroyed and at constant war within, by factions supported from all corners.”
      __________________

      Best of all would be a Syria run on democratic and open lines under the rule of law. There is a model for such a polity right next door – it is called the State of Israel.

        • Habbabkuk

          Well, you may snigger, you smelly defender of every tinpot Arab despot (provided that they are hostile to Israel of course) but the State of Israel is about the only country in the area which doesn’t specialise in killing its own citizens with some gusto 🙂

          • nevermind

            And they hung dead English soldiers into trees and barbed wire, steal land and resources that do not belong to them, put children in prison to torture their parents, ignore UN resolutions, the law of the high seas, as well as champion SA apartheid. BDS,bds,BDS.

            Only fascists fool would claim that Israel has not ethnically cleansed its various neighbourhoods of Arabs and or palestinians

          • bevin

            “…the State of Israel is about the only country in the area which doesn’t specialise in killing its own citizens with some gusto ?…”
            I suppose that technically you are if not correct, closer to the truth than usual. You might add, however that Israel does specialise in killing, and kills daily, Palestinians whose rights it denies on the grounds that they are of the wrong ‘race’. A curious thing to do in view of the fact that what Israel calls a race is nothing more than a religion.
            But then, that fascism for you: it is all about violence and killing those who disagree with your risible mid nineteenth century racial theories.

      • Loony

        Israel is not exactly a model that Syria can copy, what with Syria having a somewhat more diverse population.

        Some may say that Syria is is the product of diversity – and as we know diversity is our greatest strength.

        It would seem that either western policy makers are intent on recreating the conditions in Syria in their own countries or that western policy makers are irredeemable racists who believe that the racial superiority of the European will prevent a similar demographic mix from resulting in a replication of the situation in Syria (or Iraq, or Libya, or Somalia, or Yemen, or Rwanda, or Northern Ireland, or Burma, or India, or Nigeria or Sudan or anywhere really that has sufficient diversity).

      • Bayard

        I can’t think that I’m the only one that thinks that if you want a nation “run on democratic and open lines under the rule of law”, the model you’d least want to follow is that of the State of Israel. How about Switzerland, or is Israel supposed to be the highest that brown people can aspire to?

        • Habbabkuk

          I did say “the only country in the area”, Bayard.

          But I agree that Switzerland would be even better.

    • giyane

      R o S
      I don’t believe a word of the confrontation between Moscow and Washington. The British Empire engaged in colonial operations which were secretly targeted against Islam, the religion , and the property and livelihoods of the Muslims. The Qur’an advises us that all of the different colours of non-Islam are united in hating and trying to subvert the truth of Islam. The objective of the war on terror is to , by covert operations, pretend to help the Muslims to establish a political strength through jihad, while in reality they are herding the hotheads into a narrow stretch of land and inviting their ally Russia to bomb them to destruction. Collateral damage means that many innocent peaceful Muslims are also killed or removed from their possessions in the process.
      To the non-Muslim conspiracy this is win – win and it has to be pursued with or without the acceptance of their domestic populations.

      The wretched Saudis, whose language the Qur’an is written in, know better than all that all Muslims are forbidden to collaborate with the Jews and Christians as allies and protectors. Islam is not strengthened by the help of the disbelievers, but by the help of Allah. For this reason the whole nation of Islam considers that the takfiris, i.e. Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi Salafis are themselves not Muslims. They know the Qur’an but they do the opposite. They are in fact agents established to destroy Islam by the former-colonials whose job is being repeated by the neo-colonials.

      Trump said he would decide what to do after he had found out what was going on. It is totally inconceivable, as Craig so rightly predicted, showing photos of the Clintons and Trumps mixing socially, that he was unaware of the dark arts of the neo-cons. The former and neo -cons have not just run out of ideas, but they have run out of camouflages for their non-ideas when the internet’s freedom of access so manifestly helps their exposure. Like a liar who has told so many whoppers he/she has forgotten them, they have collectively launched a sleaze-bag like Trump, whose bad odour will temporarily confound the noses of the sniffer-dogs on the trail of their criminality. Just like hunt-saboteurs using mothballs to confuse the hounds.

      What is manifestly clear today is that Trump is a neo-con. The Saudis and Muslim Brotherhood are imposters and all of the governments of the Western world are criminals. tally-ho, it’s a fine day for hunting vermin.. prrah prrah!

    • SA

      I totally disagree with you, the comparison is extremely superficial. Bashar Al Assad has presided on a secular ‘socialist’ state which the others didn’t. He mainly minded his own business and built his country and did not interfere with other countries or mass murder parts of his population (before the uprising). He remains popular with a large base in Syria and I guess would win an open election. To compare him to the others is wrong.

  • reel guid

    Money managing firm Standard Life is reported by The Independent to be seriously considering moving its HQ from Edinburgh to Dublin to stay in the EU and the single market after Brexit.

    The same Standard Life that, along with the unionist media and politicos, told us during indyref1 would probably have to move to England after Scotland became independent.

  • Paul Barbara

    Absolutely right: the balance of probabilities is OVERWHELMINGLY on the mercenary head-choppers (‘Rebels’ to some) having used chemical weapons, as they have in the past.

    CHEMICAL WEAPONS USED BY REBELS IN SYRIA: SOURCES: http://www.newsweek.com/chemical-weaponsrebels-syria-assad-isis-islamic-state-391240
    Syria: UN Mission Report Confirms that “Opposition” Rebels Used Chemical Weapons against Civilians and Government Forces:
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/syria-un-mission-report-confirms-that-opposition-rebels-used-chemical-weapons-against-civilians-and-government-forces/5363139
    Whose sarin? Seymour M. Hersh:
    https://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n24/seymour-m-hersh/whose-sarin

    Syrian Kurds accuse Turkey of aiding sarin gas delivery to rebels after fresh chemical attacks:
    Read more at https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=675_1457619649#KLE9Mg6uf2mhiERW.99
    3 reasons why reports of a Syrian chemical weapons attack on Idlib are fake news:
    http://theduran.com/3-reasons-why-reports-of-a-syrian-chemical-weapons-attack-on-idlib-are-fake-news/
    SYRIA: Another Chemical Weapon False Flag on the Eve of Peace Talks in Brussels:
    http://21stcenturywire.com/2017/04/04/syria-another-chemical-weapon-false-flag-on-the-eve-of-peace-talks-in-brussels/

    Syrian aviation airstrike in Idlib targeted chemical arms lab — Russian Defense Ministry:
    http://tass.com/world/939417

    Has anyone forgotten the ‘Incubator Babies’ lie re Kuwait?
    ‘Propaganda, Fake News, and Media Lies: The Diabolical Business of Global Public Relations Firms’:
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/propaganda-fake-news-and-media-lies-the-diabolical-business-of-global-public-relations-firms/5580331?print=1

    or the ‘Gulf of Tonkin’ LIE, that led to massive escalation of the intervention in Vietnam, leading to tens of thousands of American dead, and millions of Vietnamese, Cambodian and Laotian dead?:
    The “Tonkin Gulf War Pretext Incidents”: When the US Wants to Start a War, it Lies …:
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-tonkin-gulf-war-pretext-incidents-when-the-us-wants-to-start-a-war-it-lies/5341718

    With all the above links, including a number showing the mercenary head-choppers (‘Rebels’) have chemical weapons, including Mustard Gas and Sarin, none of the MSM takes the logical step, and concludes it was the ‘Rebels’ who have the capability and motive to use them, and the West and it’s Middle East cronies, who have the capability and motive to supply them, with the intention of a ‘casus belli’ for intervention and ‘Regime Change’, their objective all along (along with Balkanisation of the large Arab or Muslims states in the Middle East.
    It would be suicide for Assad to have used them, and if a ‘Rogue’ Syrian officer was to use them, he would have to be a traitor working for the West or the ‘Rebels’ (both of whom have the same objectives).

  • Habbabkuk

    “It would be suicide for Assad to have used them,”
    __________________

    Since he is being protected by the lovely President Putin that is not necessarily the case…..

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    “..and if a ‘Rogue’ Syrian officer was to use them, he would have to be a traitor working for the West or the ‘Rebels’ (both of whom have the same objectives).”

    _________________________

    This shows how slippery the defenders of state terror and dirty tinpot despots are : if it was a unit of the Syrian army, then it would OF COURSE have be a traitor working for the West”.

    Please keep posting shit like that, you’ll be doing me out of a job soon! 🙂

    • Republicofscotland

      Sharp Ears.

      Israel has signed the (CWC) Chemical Weapons Convention, but not ratified it.

      However.

      “190 liters of dimethyl methylphosphonate, a CWC schedule 2 chemical used in the synthesis of sarin nerve gas, was discovered in the cargo of El Al Flight 1862 after it crashed in 1992 en route to Tel Aviv.”

      Israel claimed all manner of other uses of for the chemical, as it would do.

      Bill Richardson from the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment, believes that Israel has long term undeclared biological warfare programme.

      Who’d disagree with him, when Israel still denies it has WMD’s. Very few I presume.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Chemical_weapons

      It would appear Israel has the ability to carry out a chemical attack.

    • J

      “Please keep posting shit like that, you’ll be doing me out of a job soon!”

      Haberdasher, you’re saying you get paid to disrupt discussion here, yes?

  • reel guid

    Politico reporting that Nicola Sturgeon is planning to visit Bavaria with a Scottish business delegation to improve ties with that state.

    This follows on from Sturgeon’s signing a joint declaration with Bavarian Economy Minister Ilse Aigner in Edinburgh last month.

    That’s not swanning around as the Britnats say. That’s real political leadership.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    So Trump is feeling out the Russians, Kim Jong-Un’s most visible supporter, by attacking Syrian airfields – the essential part of his divide-and-rule policy on attacks on North Korea’s missile and nuclear sites.

    If Moscow reacts militarily to any American air challenges in Syria, any solution to problems in the Far East will be most problematic, ad Xi will tell Trump so in the Florida meeting.

    It’s all up to Putin now.

  • reel guid

    Senior German MEP Elmar Brok has said that an independent Scotland’s joining the EU would be “swift”.

    Herr Brok said “Scotland is a member of the European Union and fulfils all of the conditions. There will not be many technical problems”.

    • Loony

      ,,,and that makes you happy? All it shows is the open German contempt for Spain. What makes you think that Germans do not despise the Haggis eaters just as much?

      What a demeaning ambition to be fishing around for compliments from a nation that manifestly despises you. For goodness sake grow a spine and act with some dignity.

      • reel guid

        Hey. If we want to call ourselves the haggis eaters we can. You can’t call us that sunshine.

        • Republicofscotland

          reel guid.

          It does no harm to prepare the ground work, and nobody prepared it better than those fools with Brexit.

          Not only have those bungling Brexiteers aided Scottish independence, the numpties have also endeared Scotland in Europe.

          As the saying goes “A fool and his Gibraltar are soon parted.” ?

          • Republicofscotland

            Ah I see what you did there very witty indeed, yes Westminster mind end up feeling DOWN….as in county. ?

        • reel guid

          They never actually had any such plans. But yes Spain is amenable about Scottish independence.

        • reel guid

          JOML

          German composers certainly liked Scotland.

          Beethoven wrote a collection of Twenty-Five Scottish Songs (opus.108).
          Felix Mendelssohn composed a Scottish Symphony as well as The Hebrides Overture.
          Max Bruch wrote a Scottish Fantasy for violin and orchestra.

          That’s a mighty lot of manifest despising!

          • Republicofscotland

            reel guid.

            Yes well said, I recall years ago and it has stayed with me, that a orchestra, actually went to Fingals cave on Staffa, to perform Mendelssohn’s Hebridean Overture.

            Now what a rendition it must have been, echoing through the caves majestic proscenium. ?

  • Sharp Ears

    The House of Lords debated the Balfour Declaration on Monday following a written question from Jenny Tonge who has been ill.

    Notice the attempt to shut Lord Warner down even after a few word.

    ‘Noble lords. Too long.’

    Lord Leigh of Hurley is a 2013 Cameron appointed stooge. Note he is chairman of the Jerusalem Foundation.
    https://www.parliament.uk/biographies/lords/lord-leigh-of-hurley/4295
    Just look at the long list of his ‘interests’. As rich as Croesus presumably.

    He is also on the board of Conservative Friends of Israel.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Leigh,_Baron_Leigh_of_Hurley

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2017-04-03/debates/632A5268-21B5-4F91-884A-B339C52A0109/BalfourDeclaration

  • Barry

    I’ve not seen it so I want to address it. This current Syrian chemical attack will be President Putin’s greatest foreign policy challenge since taking office in 2000. Behind the scenes VP is being briefed on possible options by a group of influential hardliners. Their determination comes from a spy who diffused a nuclear war in Europe during 2016 by briefing the Russians on Nato intentions. Had it not been for this spy we would all be dead now.

    Russian understanding of Nato intentions was way off. This put us on a hair trigger. Our analysis concludes that should the western nations attempt to remove al Assad, President Putin will be ordered to defend Syria. Someone is wrong on Russian military capability. Maybe the asshats at MI6 like producing ass wiping reports.

  • michael norton

    Get back to the day job Nicola and stop strutting your stuff across the globe
    Ms. Nicola Sturgeon urged to halt indyref2 calls as SCOTTISH economy shrinks

    Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/business/nicola-sturgeon-urged-to-halt-indyref2-calls-as-economy-shrinks-1-4412349
    Businesses have sounded the alarm over the state of the Scottish economy after figures revealed output shrank at the end of last year. The Scottish Government has been told to drop its calls for a second independence referendum and focus on economic growth amid claims that ministers are “OUT of TOUCH” over the impact of their policies.

    Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/business/nicola-sturgeon-urged-to-halt-indyref2-calls-as-economy-shrinks-1-4412349
    Business groups have demanded action to ease the tax burden over fears the Scottish economy was being left behind by the rest of the country, with overall growth across the UK remaining strong. Finance Secretary Derek Mackay blamed the sluggish economy on “continued headwinds” including the fallout from Brexit, but experts said the figures confirmed the lack of growth in Scotland could no longer be tied solely to the EU referendum. Economic growth in Scotland fell further behind the rest of the UK last year, with GDP growing by just 0.4 per cent compared to 1.8 per cent across the country. Output fell by 0.2 per cent in the final three months of 2016, the first decline since the third quarter of 2015, led by continued falls in manufacturing. The UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent over the same period. The 
figures are worse than forecasts produced by the EY Scottish ITEM Club at the end of last year, which predicted growth in 2017 would only reach 0.4 per cent.

    Shocking how the S. N. P. are ruining Scotland.

  • Republicofscotland

    Barack Obama, the ex-POTUS, who was at war longer than any other POTUS in history, and who won the Nobel Peace prize in 2009, (mind you both Hitler and Mussolini were nominated) will visit Scotland next month.

    Obama will be addressing an audience in Edinburgh, and at £5000 grand a table, it had better be good.

    No doubt Obama will reminisce on his time at the Whitehouse, with witty stories on drone bombing, and gone astray bunker busters.

    He may even have a few anecdotes on those gunned down in friendly fire, or related a tale of F16 civilian bombing by mistake.

    http://news.sky.com/story/barack-obama-to-address-business-leaders-on-first-visit-to-scotland-10827443

    • reel guid

      The Nobel Peace Prize was founded by the inventor of dynamite and the manufacturer of Bofors guns. So in a sense Obama could be said to be the worthiest ever recipient.

      • Republicofscotland

        reel guid.

        Yes the Nobel Institute, is a bit hit and miss when it comes to dishing out its prizes. Henry Kissinger’s award in 1973, is a prime example of a miss.

        In 1935, whilst Mussolini was invading Ethiopia and taking hundreds of Italian businesses under state control.

        Two letters of recommendation one from a German professor, the other from a French academic, nominating Mussolini landed on the desks of the Nobel Institute.

        Strangely both recommendations have gone missing from the Nobel Institutes archives. So we may never know who those recommendations came from.

        • reel guid

          RoS

          I think I remember hearing about Mussolini’s recommendation for the prize. Didn’t know about the missing recommendations.

  • michael norton

    My money is on The Turkoman

    These are Turkish or ethnic Turkish warriors, who do the dirty work for
    The Sultan of Turkey.
    It is these goons who cut the head of the Russian airmen, downed by Turkish aircraft over Hatay Province/Idlib Province

    They will have been directed by The Sultan, to do his very dirty work.
    The Turks have now come to the place of the chemical attack and taken corpses and have autopsied them.

    So, Turkey has invaded Syrian and stolen corpses, these people will stop at nothing to steal land from Syria.

    • michael norton

      Something is afoot with Turkey.

      First the Qatar/Saudi/Jordanian Turkish pipe line was to go through Syria to Turkey, for onward transmission to the European Union but Putin persuaded Assad not to agree.
      Then less than Two years later a “civil” war started in Syria, which rages, to this day.

      Turkey under Erdogan is a very malign influence in the area.

      Then there is the Turkish Coup.
      Erdogan survives but who was behind that coup?

      Now this:
      Plan to service UK F-35 jets in Turkey sparks security concerns
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39501299

      I wouldn’t trust Erdogan to polish my shoes, without robbing them.

      • Republicofscotland

        Ah just mention Vlad III (the Impaler) to Erdogan and he’ll run for cover.

        Vlad impalied (trying to intimidate Mehmed II Sultan) impailed 20,000 men, women and children, in one town alone. ?

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Now Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has set the stage for Xi meeting Trump, stating Russia should think very carefully how it responds to the West’s removal of Assad!

    This ultimatum is one of history’s worst.

  • Assad Fan

    May be evil of the highest order, a ploy to bump Susan Rice spying scandal, a thousand times Watergate, off the news cycle.

      • michael norton

        In Turkey, state-run Anadolu and the private DHA news agencies quoted Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag as saying that
        “it was determined after the autopsy that a chemical weapon was used.”
        Turkish officials say that close to 60 victims of the attack were brought to Turkey for treatment and three of them died.

        Tuesday’s attack happened just 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the Turkish border, and the Turkish government — a close ally of Syrian rebels — set up a decontamination center at a border crossing in the province of Hatay, where the victims were initially treated before being moved to hospitals.

        • giyane

          All the honest men and women in Turkey have either been locked up, placed under house arrest or murdered by In-sultan Erdogan.

          • Paul Barbara

            @ giyane April 6, 2017 at 20:31
            A lot of them were Gulen supporters and/or Gladio agents of CIA/NATO..
            Gladio was responsible for the first three coups, and almost certainly also of the failed recent one.
            At least with Erdogan (whom I most certainly am no fan) there is the slim chance of breaking Turkey away from NATO, an excellent result.

  • farrukh Husain

    I would like to break every bone in Assad’s body with a lovely well oiled cricket bat. I would like to hit him for six, and hear him scream. I want him to feel the pain that countless peoples have suffered at the hands of oppressors like this dog, whose crimes are clouded by the fog of war. Dr Assad, is a Dr of Death like Dr Mengele. A slow death is what he needs, so that he screams for mercy, just as those under his bombs pray for the mercy of the almighty.

  • RobG

    I haven’t seen this reported anywhere else (?): yesterday George Galloway went on the Richie Allen show and announced that he is no longer supporting Jeremy Corbyn, due to the treatment of Ken Livingstone…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCpBsJwLrpo

    Should be in the previous thread, perhaps, but all this stuff is connected. There’s a common thread…

    • Loony

      As Galloway is standing for election in Manchester Gorton where he will directly challenge the Labour Party then he cannot possibly support Jeremy Corbyn who is the leader of the Labour Party.

      As Galloway announced his candidacy sometime prior to the latest Ken Livingstone story then it follows that his lack of support for Corbyn is not connected to Ken Livingstone.

    • Paul Barbara

      @ RobG April 6, 2017 at 20:32
      Unfortunate. He could have spoken out against it, without stomping off into the sunset.

  • Ball

    Habbabk,

    Care to comment on this article?
    —————————————————–

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/06/former-israeli-security-chiefs-warn-of-tyranny

    Israel sunk in ‘incremental tyranny’, say former Shin Bet chiefs

    Ami Ayalon and Carmi Gillon speak out ahead of 50th anniversary of occupation of Palestinian territories

    One of the pair warned that the country’s political system was sunk in the process of “incremental tyranny”.

    Ami Ayalon and Carmi Gillon were speaking ahead of a public meeting at a Jerusalem gallery which is threatened with closure for hosting a meeting organised by the military whistleblowing group Breaking the Silence, one of the main targets of the rightwing government of Benjamin Netanyahu.

    During his recent visit to the UK, Netanyahu also asked Theresa May to cut UK government funding to the group – a request that baffled diplomats as no direct UK funding exists.
    ——————————————-

    Current Israeli democracy to keep spouting on about, right?

  • fwl

    Yeah Balance of Probabilities is a good heading. On the balance if probabilities not Assad’s orders and more likely false flag or out of control or negligent state actors. Going to war should be beyond reasonable doubt. It sure ain’t that. Media bleating away like a choir makes everyone suspicious.

    What it means for US is interesting. Have neo cons attached their strings on Trump. Who is yanking whose strings over there. That is some confused puppet show going on. I need a diagram, programme notes and subtitles.

    • fwl

      That is the point. It’s not even proof on the balance of probabilities. It’s just proof by media repetition.

      • Paul Barbara

        I gave a long list of links on my comment @ Paul Barbara April 6, 2017 at 18:16
        As C avery comments: ‘Cui bono?’

  • Andrew

    In the early 1960s, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff approved a plan to attack the United States! Known as ‘Operation Northwoods’, the plan “called for innocent people to be shot on American streets; for boats carrying refugees fleeing Cuba to be sunk on the high seas; for a wave of violent terrorism to be launched in Washington DC, Miami and elsewhere. People would be framed for bombings they did not commit; planes would be hijacked…”

    It seems unbelievable. But America’s most senior military leaders seriously contemplated doing this and using the attacks as a pretext for invading Cuba, according to James Bamford’s 2001 book Body of Secrets, a well-regarded history of the NSA. The plan was shelved when the Kennedy administration turned its attention away from Cuba — Good Morning, Vietnam! – but it illustrates how little we are actually able to know about contemporary foreign affairs.

    p.s. Lysias – “and American sailors” (19.56) – The 50th anniversary is in June; it will be fascinating to see how the anniversary is marked. (Bamford’s book provides a detailed account of the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty, which was on an NSA spying mission at the time).

    • Kempe

      There was no such thing as Operation Northwoods. There was a Northwoods Memoranda which outlined some hare-brained schemes and which was rejected out of hand. The officer responsible was never promoted again.

    • Paul Barbara

      @ Andrew April 6, 2017 at 20:42
      ‘… But America’s most senior military leaders seriously contemplated doing this and using the attacks as a pretext for invading Cuba…’
      All the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including the Chairman, signed off on the idea; Robert McNamara, on JFK’s orders, nixed the plan and JFK refused to renew Lyman Lemnitzer’s position as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. But Lemnitzer was not left ‘spinning in the wind’, and was given the post of Supreme Allied Commander – Europe.
      He was in that position when a message to the USS Liberty was passed through Europe for the Liberty to pull out, which never reached them (it wasn’t supposed to: LBJ had arranged with Israel that he would send the Liberty to cruise outside the twelve mile limit off Gaza and Egypt, Israel would attack and sink it leaving no survivors, and it was to be blamed on Egypt (sound typical ‘False Flag?). But the worst of it was, America was going to nuke Egypt in retaliation, and nuclear armed planes from the 6th Fleet and a North African base were en route, and recalled 3 minutes from their targets, because the Liberty didn’t sink, and managed to get an SOS out which was widely picked up (‘Operation Cyanide’, Peter Hounam).
      There definitely need to be demos at the US and Israeli Embassies on the 8th June, on the 50th Anniversary of that murderous, treacherous attack.

    • Heironymous

      Never apparently:

      In September 2013, Obomber meets Putin and the significance of their long handshake is divined in great depth. The commentator notes that Obama is pursuing limited strikes against Syria as punishment for the alleged use of chemical weapons.

  • Carl Olsen

    Assad is highly intelligent and by all appearances very shrewd. The likelihood of him doing something so utterly against his interests approaches zero, yet the corporate media immediately accuse him of being responsible and clamor for a heavy response. Why? Because this is clearly a false-flag operation to justify a last -ditch attempt at regime change.

    Usage alert: Penultimate paragraph, ‘adverse’ s/b ‘averse’.(Difficult conditions are adverse, Averse = reluctant to taking a course of action.)

  • Habbabkuk

    There are people on here who have pointed to the risk of war with Russia and China – World War 3 even!! – should the West move militarily to finally get rid of the Butcher of Damascus.

    I believe that they are wrong, for the simple reason that neither China (certainly not China!) nor Russia is going to go to war to keep “President” Assad Jnr’s arse safe.

    Forget China – there’s no percentage in it for them.

    And as for Russia : Russia has neither the military nor the economic capacity to go to war with the West over “President” Assad. Russia can manage it with weak states such as Ukraine, Georgia or, perhaps in the future, the Baltic Republics but Mr Putin is to much of a realist and a businessman to try it on with worthier opponents.

    So the West should get tough with “President” Assad and face down any possible Russian reaction, which would only be a bluff anyway.

    However, it will perhaps not come to that because it cannot be ruled out that that Russians and Americans are at this minute working on a way to remove – in a way which will save Russian face – the Butcher of Damascus.

    And the only thong wrong with that outcome is that the Butcher will probably escape the unpleasant end often reserved for tin-pot Arab despots with much blood on their hands. But hey, you can’t won them all 🙂

    • Ball

      Habbabk,

      Care to comment on the article I link to at 20.37 or is the famous Habbabk duck and cover on show? Quack, quack!

      2 former heads of Shin Bet calling the current Israeli Government close to tyranny.

      Yikes Habbabk, democracy it ain’t.

      • Habbabkuk

        Ball(s) (btw, may I call you Ed?)

        “2 former heads of Shin Bet calling the current Israeli Government close to tyranny.

        Yikes Habbabk, democracy it ain’t.”

        _____________________

        The very fact that two former heads of Shin Beth can say that without suffering any adverse consequences surely demonstrates that the State of Israel is a country which us free, democratic and under the rule of law and which has freedom of speech.

        You’ll of course be aware that if two former heads of “President” Assad’s secret police were to say something similarly critical about the Syrian régime they would be dead meat in short order. Unless they’d fled abroad first, of course.

        Ditto if they belonged to the Butcher’s greatest ally of the moment, ie Russia.

        • J

          Shall we play the, Compare Respective Death Tolls of Heads of State? Oh yes, that’s right, we only have reliable figures for heads of state who don’t speak English as a first language. Awkward.

    • J

      Yes but where will it end? Next it’ll be the Haberdasher of Damascus, then the Bikini Waxer of Damascus. It’s a slippery slope.

    • Loony

      I do not know what you have against the “Butcher of Damascus” He is simply the end product of a state that achieves critical mass in diversity – and diversity is a great strength. Name any other country with similar levels of diversity that produces non-violent, democratic, freedom loving leaders.

      As for Russia, well if history is any guide there is very little chance of their surrendering. They consider themselves to be threatened in the Baltic region, Ukraine and Syria. If they give up in Syria then they compromise their economic power which they derive through energy supplies to Europe. More importantly they run the very real risk that ISIS fighters will be redeployed to the Caucuses. As some of these people originate from the Caucuses then it does not seem far fetched to consider this a genuine risk. Russia too is a beneficiary of diversity.

      Obama’s legendary pivot to Asia was all about containing China. Trump has been clear that one way or another he intends going after Chinese trade imbalances. The US is after both Russia and China and both understand this The US $ cannot persist as the world reserve currency and both understand this – look at how they are both seeking an alternative to SWIFT.. China needs resources and Russia has plenty, China considers that it needs higher tech weaponry and Russia can provide that. The initial plan of Trump was to try and split Russia and China – but that does not seem to be working out too well.Absent some change Russia and China will remain joined at the hip.

      Most likely you have been reading too much propaganda about Putin and have formed the erroneous impression that Russians think like you. If pushed too far it is a racing certainty that Russia will push the button and pull the plug,

      Even if this is wrong, why take the risk? Sure Syria is a nightmare – but so is Iraq. What is it about the idea of leaving other people alone that you find so repellent?

    • RobG

      The “Butcher of Damascus”, love it.

      Just the same tired old, tired old from the real butchers.

      Is there any more cartoon clown stuff that the likes of Habba want to put forth?

    • bevin

      The problem is that the “west’ has no more right in any sort of international law, including that of the UN, to attack Syria than I have to come round to your place and kick your head in.
      So Putin and Russia, and China are in the position of choosing either to allow the “west’ also known as the US to continue to pick and choose governments to attack, regimes to change and rules to make up until it decides to do them in next.
      No doubt it is all one to you; fascists are known to have death wishes. But it worries me that my grandchildren, of they live through this could end up in a radioactive world or one in which the scoundrels who pick the pockets of the American people control everything.
      If you loved your country you might understand these things.

    • bevin

      What is most notable about this crisis is that, so crass and cynical are the actors in Washington, that not the slightest effort has been made to investigate what actually occurred.
      If there are attacks on Syrian positions they will have been ‘called in’ by the White Helmets who work for MI-6.
      It is to be hoped that the infamy of this will live on. If it does not it will be because lies and propaganda have completely supplanted reason and morality. If this should occur the countdown to extinction will have reached double digits. Homo sapiens will have become something lower than anything else in the ape family. Donald Trump will be a fitting exemplar of the breed.

  • Assad Fan

    The greatest achievement of the Rev 2:9 mob is to convince us they havent been around for the past 2,000 years. And the enemy within wants us shed our blood for them now, AGAIN. The post above is a classic example of wishful thinking from a devil, with the impudence of thinking the cattle are all fast asleep. Bernard Henry Levy has just made a similar post in the French Press too, its gotta be satan, this unspoken sync across borders. Or even God, in which case I concede.

  • Hieroglyph

    When dealing with the presstitute media, I think it’s useful to just assume they are alway lying. Thus, when they blame Assad, it’s not Assad, and nor is it one of his ‘henchmen’. Nope, it’s exactly who it was the last time: the head-choppers and rapists that the West is, somehow, sponsoring, for reasons that I’ll probably never understand. That is my default position, until I see evidence to the contrary.

    Alas, I think Trump should stick to axing trade deals, and rounding up paedophiles (don’t hear much about the latter do we?). He seems a little uncertain on foreign policy, and I do hope he doesn’t trust the neocons. Perhaps he’s been shown the ‘special video’ of the JFK killing? Still, it’s early days, and Trump does seem to have changed the policy of sponsoring lunatics, let’s see if continues.

    • Assad Fan

      Its a tradition they always archive for after dinner parties at Herzliya, they were caught red-handed zaprudering 911, and that only because two of em started congaring to hava nagila loudly in the car park.

    • Paul Barbara

      @ Hieroglyph April 6, 2017 at 21:56
      ‘… Nope, it’s exactly who it was the last time: the head-choppers and rapists that the West is, somehow, sponsoring, for reasons that I’ll probably never understand…’
      Try reading the Yinon Plan, and also about the pipeline issue. A bit of searching on the latter should provide some answers.

  • J

    I talk to so many people I wouldn’t otherwise meet through my work, and a majority definitely understand. They know. And they reject all of this. The windows of opportunity are closing down for those who simply can not imagine the plethora of alternatives. For now it remains a real shame, an ongoing series of tragedies.

    • michael norton

      Just heard on the news that the White house and the Pentagon are as one – take out President Assad.

      • michael norton

        I think Russia will go all the way with LBJ

        they will not back down, that would be the same as committing insecticide.

  • Habbabkuk

    There will be no WW3 over Syria and the Butcher of Damascus will be gone before the year’s end. This year’s end.

    Wait and see (but feel free to keep obsessing and ranting in the meantime).

    • J

      “but feel free to keep obsessing and ranting…”

      So says the Haberdasher on the Butcher. We’ll see.

    • Paul Barbara

      @ Habbabkuk April 6, 2017 at 22:32
      Pity your ‘deep concern’ for the Syrian victims doesn’t extend to the Palestinian victims.

      • michael norton

        Shayrat, seems to have fifty hardened fighter aircraft bunkers.
        Hence, 50 + missiles.
        This airfield, is not far from Israel.

        Remember Israel bombed Syria, recently.

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