The Balance of Probabilities 1084


Unlike the famous chemical weapons “attack” portrayed by the BBC in Saving Syria’s Children, it does appear that in the latest incident at Idlib there was real horror inflicted by chemical attack of some kind. The question is who did it and why?

I am no fan of the Assad regime, and I have no problem using the word “regime” to describe it. Dictators do hold and win elections. I have lived in severe dictatorships and seen from the inside how they do it. The human rights abuses of the Assad regime have been well documented for decades.

But Bashar al Assad is neither stupid nor unsophisticated. Aided by Putin, he outwitted Obama by quickly giving up his chemical weapons to be destroyed and accepting transparency in verification. There is no justification for the destruction of Iraq, but if Saddam Hussein had been able to swallow pride as completely as Assad, he too could have had a very good chance of averting disaster.

Assad had seen his position go from strength to strength, thanks to Putin’s astute deployment of Russia’s limited military power. Militarily the balance had swung dramatically in Assad’s favour, while Trump had said the unsayable and acknowledged that putting Syria into the hands of Wahabbist crazies was not in the United States interest.

So I cannot conceive that Assad would risk throwing all of this away for the sake of a militarily insignificant small chemical weapons attack. It would be an act of the most extreme folly. It is not impossible – hubris is a great temptation to dictators – but given how Assad has played it so far, it seems out of character and extremely improbable. What is less improbable is a local battlefield decision by pro-Assad forces. In my close observation of dictatorial regimes, a fascinating feature is that they operate an image of the perfection of the state. They are highly adverse to admitting mistakes.

What did happen I do not profess to know. There are at least eleven major identifiable state and non-state forces involved in the fighting around Idlib. In going through them all and considering opportunity and motive for each, I continually find that those whose motive would be false flag stand to benefit a great deal more than those who might have been seeking military advantage.

I am therefore for now unconvinced that this was a deliberate use of chemical weapons by Assad forces. I do not rule it out, but it would take much more concrete evidence than currently offered to prove they did something so strongly and obviously against their own interest. But western governments and media have determined to make that the narrative, so the truth is, as so often in modern geo-politics, entirely incidental to the course of future events.


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1,084 thoughts on “The Balance of Probabilities

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  • Republicofscotland

    Figures just released by the Nuffield Trust, show a shocking increase in the number of ambulances turned away from A&E’s in England.

    478 ambulances were turned away from A&E’s in England in only 3 months. Almost double the previous year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/07/record-number-of-ambulances-redirected-from-ae

    Still not to worry, the Brexiteers said the the NHS in England will receive £350 million, saved by exiting the EU. Surely they wouldn’t lie to us, would they? ?

    • reel guid

      This is what is in store for Scotland’s NHS if we don’t secure independence.

  • Sharp Ears

    Armed police are on duty at Aintree in case of any attack.

    The sport of kings (and queens) has it’s big day today. I sincerely hope that there will not be any additions to this death toll.

    1524 Deaths in 3680 Days*
    http://www.horsedeathwatch.com

    • Alcyone

      I would support you if you were out there with your banner Mary. Let’s just say, on this very limited occasion, I support you anyway. Be happy!

    • Sharp Ears

      The sponsor of the meeting is Randox who must be doing very well out of private health provision to be able to fund it for five years. Their turnover is £98m according to their Wikipedia entry.

      ‘The Grand National 2017 will be sponsored by Randox Health – but chances are you’ve no idea what they do.
      The Northern Ireland-based firm will celebrate their first year as sponsors of the Grand National after signing a multi-million pound deal early in 2016.

      Randox, the fifth brand to sponsor the world-famous race, will also become “official healthcare partner” of Aintree Racecourse owners The Jockey Club. With a global TV audience of over 600 million – including nine million in the UK alone – bosses at the health brand will be hoping their deal helps them become known to a global audience.

      Randox was founded in Northern Ireland in 1982 by scientist Dr Pete Fitzgerald – who is known as a keen horseracing fan. The private healthcare company provides health checks, where they analyse urine and blood samples to check for and prevent illness. They say their health checks “aim to prevent illness and enhance wellbeing by running hundreds of tests from one simple patient sample”.

      But this comes at a price – the Randox Health Everywoman programme, which looks at more than 20 areas of the body including digestive and liver health, infection and inflammation, hormonal and thyroid health, costs from £500 a year.

      The firm’s website says there’s currently branches in Beverly Hills, London, Ireland and that they (sic) are plans underfoot to open branches in Liverpool, Dubai and Manchester.’

      http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/who-grand-national-sponsors-randox-12850293

      Glorified pathology which is a service that is available via a GP or hospital doctor but a nice little earner for Dr Fitzgerald who is named as Mr Fitzgerald on the Company Check website. Director and ex director of 38 companies. He started off in a hen house. I notice that there are farming companies in this list.
      https://companycheck.co.uk/director/914510611/STEPHEN-PETER-FITZGERALD/companies

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randox_Laboratories

      Are his companies suppliers or contractors to OUR NHS?

  • Arby

    I think Craig could stand to read around in the (real) progressive media a bit more. I don’t know what his reading habits are, but I find his tone here to be strangely off. The fake news machine is in high gear – I repeat, ‘high’ gear – and blood and destruction are the result. That could make a progressive somewhat, I don’t know, Concerned? And not so willing to give the establishment, with its weapons of mass deception (http://bit.ly/2o9JPlu), the benefit of the doubt. Off Guardian or even Consortium News (which is flawed but good) might be good places to start. As for CN; You can ‘not’ carry CIA asset Graham Fuller’s articles and be labelled real progressive. But CN still delivers the goods, so it’s worth visiting. What’s Robert’s story? He won’t say, as far as I know.

    http://bit.ly/2oTn70P

    • Mark Golding

      I have to agree Arby, Craig unfortunately and sadly does not ‘cut the mustard’ in his rather vapid balancing of probabilities where ‘cui bono’ flies in front of the perceptive and the horrors to ‘beautiful little babies’ has remained a bloody milestone within the event horizon since the mass incineration of children by missiles directed at Baghdad one early morning in March 2003.

      Unfortunately the United States of America is a regime; a terrorist lead state to which I pray it’s possessors will rise up regardless in a ‘democracy spring’ that might purge the filth that govern it.

  • bevin

    “…I’m sure the more than US$50 mil wasted by Trump could extended Medicare to a few lucky ones..”
    You have put your finger on the key point, here Chris. The key to understanding the implications of Trump’s stupidity and Ken Livingstone’s wisdom in pointing out the symbiotic relationship that exists between zionism and fascism.
    Trump, a grifter and a gaudy con man was always an unlikely champion of the cause of those who luxuriate in the name of “white trash”. Or as we would call ourselves-the working people. But any port in a storm. And, after having been comprehensive betrayed, cheated, run down, insulted, humiliated and robbed blind by the Democratic Party the American working class was ready to give Trump a chance.
    Which was why it was so important-for the plutocrats behind Clinton- to count Sanders out in the Primaries: if Bernie (warts and all) had got through to the election he would be in the White House today. And the world would still be rubbing its eyes at the sight of an avowed (albeit milquetoast) socialist President.
    Instead we got Trump and more ambiguities, contradictions and downright impossibilities than anyone could have thought possible. Now those ambiguities appear to have been banished, along with Bannon: instead we are back to the old deep state policies of war on all fronts. Abroad war on the undefended with a view to loot, and in service of the Eretz Israel aims of the fascist revisionist zionists. At home war against the poor, a war against wages, a war against pensions, a war against secure employment, a war against public education and a war against healthcare.
    And that is going to wake up the masses: the calculus is very simple: trillions of dollars for wars called for by Israeli fascists-Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Syria for example; tens of billions for subsidies to Israel, including the transfer of employment through contracts with Israeli firms, billions to bribe Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority to ‘keep the peace’ with Israel. Confrontation with Iran and Shi’ites in general to pay Saudi Arabia for supplying militias to terrorise Israel’s enemies.
    And, on the other side: no more Food Stamps for poor Americans; a shrinking of the medicare and medicaid programmes in a country with declining life expectancy and Third World infant mortality levels; cuts in education budgets with an increase in school fees and other charges, as well as increasing College tuition costs. And all this in a context of disappearing Trade Unions and galloping job insecurity, with Youth Unemployment figures well over 25%.
    In such conditions a political crisis is inevitable. And right now it is one likely to lead to fascistic outcomes- with the possibility of Trade Union organisation cut off, prevented by every organ of the state, federal and state, the likelihood is that older forms of organisation of the KKK type will revive.

    • glenn_uk

      And you never saw a single problem with Trump before now, eh? People who shared your Clinton Derangement Syndrome put Trump in the White House. Don’t forget that – you have to own this entire Presidency.

      Remember, you said not one bad word against Trump, but instead railed against H. Clinton right the way through the election. So next time you wish everyone shared your insight and political leanings, look where it’s got us.

      • Shatnersrug

        Oh behave Glenn, the only difference between trump and Clinton is that she’d have launched these rocket attacks back in January whilst telling us not to be sexist.

  • Ben

    Heh. The Russians should get an oscar.

    They are s-o-o-o upset about the Syrian attack that they got advance notice of so they could leave a skeleton crew. Well they had to have a few victims., didn’t they? You know..for credibility.

    • bevin

      I presume that you would argue that this is ‘further evidence’ of Trump’s being Putin’s agent?
      For those less demented the explanation is simple: Trump was advised that to attack without warning might trigger Russian deterrence systems and lead to a nuclear war. Which of course would play hell with real estate values.
      But be my guest Ben, invent weirder and weirder justifications for the Clinton excuse for losing the most winnable election since 1936.

  • RobG

    It’s like the last days of the Roman Empire.

    The cruise missile attack on Syria strikes me as a bit of a puzzle, when you take into account that the Russians and Syrians were given advanced warning of the attack, and the target was a manky old airfield (which ISIS immediately occupied after the attack), and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cruise missiles were used, and it was payback for a ‘chemical attack’ that is still completely unproven (it seems that the present US President actually believes all the bullshit that’s pumped-out by the MSM).

    I found this to be a good take on it all…

    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/04/donald-trump-is-an-international-law-breaker.html

    • TH

      Where did you get the idea that Russia and Syria was forewarned by Trump? Makes no sense.

      • RobG

        None of it makes any sense. It’s been widely reported that Russia and Syria were warned of the attack.

          • RobG

            “Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said the Russians were informed in “multiple conversations” on Thursday, through the “deconfliction channel” – a communications channel to the Russian base at Latakia used to avoid collisions or exchanges of fire between US and allied planes and Russian planes.

            “There are Russians at the base and we took extraordinary precautions to not target the area where the Russians are,” he said.

            https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/07/us-syria-response-donald-trump-assad-pentagon-live?page=with:block-58e7142ce4b0e0ec04efe8da#block-58e7142ce4b0e0ec04efe8da

          • Herbie

            The Russians have now turned off the deconfliction system, so they say.

            That means, presumably, that any other attacks on Syria will be met with whatever resistance these S 300s and 400s and so on are capable of.

            So, attackers will now have to consider that response.

            It’s all a game of Chicken now.

            And that applies to Israel and Turkey as well.

            Anyway.

            This attack has all the hallmarks of a CIA effort to force Trump’s hand, as in the Clinton attack on Sudan and the attempt to manoeuvre Kennedy with the Bay of Pigs.

            Unless there’s more to come, for all the media slobber, it’s little more than a submission of the presidency to the deep state.

            Symbolic rather than anything else.

            But it certainly makes Trump’s life easier.

        • RobG

          Herbie, it’s very difficult to figure out what the hell is really going on.

          As you say, the Russians have some fearsome firepower, whilst the Americans have the most expensive and crap weaponry on Earth (due to their totally corrupt political system).

          Due to this corruption and the resulting totally inept US military machine (60 cents of every US tax payer’s dollar) there’s a real danger here that Russia (and possibly joined by China), totally pissed-off with these little war-mongering wankers in the US, will take them out with a first strike.

          That will wake the American people up, and maybe they’ll stop thinking that they are so ‘exceptional’.

  • Republicofscotland

    When Sturgeon went to the USA, she bagged a £6.3 million investment deal for Scotland on the first day.

    http://archive.is/G4BYs

    Kezia Dugdale arrived in the USA, when Holyrood WASNT in recess unlike Sturgeon. Dugdale went to the US not to promote Scotland but to promote Hillary Clinton’s POTUS campaign.

    Sturgeon met Hillary Clinton, as far as I know Dugdale met a cardboard cut out. ?

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/dugdaleclinton2.jpg

    • reel guid

      “…Dugdale met a cardboard cut out”.

      Well they do say like seeks like.

      • Republicofscotland

        Yes reel guid, I’m 100% sure Wee Willie Rennie, is made of cardboard. ?

    • Alcyone

      ‘All three firms have been supported by Scottish ­Enterprise through grants of more than £1.5million.
      The First Minister will have various meetings during her five-day visit to the US, aimed at promoting trade, investment, tourism and innovation.’

      A rather piddly little deal, don’t you think, with a bribe to boot!?

      • Republicofscotland

        It beats losing Gibraltar, mind you the Spanish will be pleased to remove and absorb a tax haven, just off their coast that undermines their economy.

        Is Theresa no mates in Europe, back from kowtowing in Saudi yet?

        All that genuflecting will have left creases in her shoes, and we all know what shoe fan Theresa is.

    • fred

      “When Sturgeon went to the USA, she bagged a £6.3 million investment deal for Scotland on the first day.”

      NATS IN A SPIN SNP chiefs accused of falsely claiming Nicola Sturgeon clinched millions in investment on US trip

      Nats No2 Angus Robertson was among bigwigs who heaped praise on the First Minister, telling her ‘congrats’ for ‘securing £6.3million deal for jobs’

      https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/830011/snp-nicola-sturgeon-angus-robertson-investment-us

      • reel guid

        Every little helps.

        May and Mundell by contrast are going out of their way to take policy decisions that are completely inimical to Scotland’s interests.

      • fred

        “A $6.3 million investment wouldn’t buy you a house in Manhattan.”

        Never mind, while Nicola was swanning around signing blank pieces of paper in California, under the Scotland act she isn’t actually authorised to sign a birthday card, Donald fired off a whole bunch of made in Fife missiles at a million pounds each.

        That will boost Scotland’s exports.

        • Alcyone

          So why is it always an Islamic jihadi, why not an Hindu, Buddhist or Sikh?

          OPINION | NIALL FERGUSON
          What comes before jihad?
          https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/03/27/what-comes-before-jihad/WoSLmhqXIIjvHURZsgns8H/story.html

          “Let’s not be parochial. The world is in the grip of an epidemic of Islamist terror. Of the last 16 years, the worst year was 2014, with 93 countries experiencing attacks and close to 33,000 people killed. The second worst was 2015, with over 29,000 victims. In that year, four radical Islamic groups were responsible for three quarters of all deaths from terrorism: Islamic State, Boko Haram, the Taliban, and Al Qaeda.

          British police reveal more details of Parliament attacker
          Khalid Masood, who attacked Britain’s Parliament, killing four people and wounding some 50, was born Adrian Russell Ajao, London’s top counterterror officer said Friday.

          In London attack inquiry, police make ‘significant’ arrests
          Although Muslim-majority countries suffer the most from jihadist violence, the West is increasingly under attack. There were 64 ISIS-affiliated attacks in Western countries in 2015, including the massacres in Paris (137 dead) and Orlando (50 dead). Thus far, Britain has got off lightly.

          No doubt there will whining about security lapses in the Masood case. But the reality is that only the constant vigilance of the UK security services has stopped many more people from being killed in the past dozen years. In 2014 and 2015, there were more terrorism-related arrests than in any year since 2000. What we must face is that even this intensified effort cannot pre-empt every jihadist.

          The term “lone wolf” is a misleading one. No one becomes a jihadist all by himself, just by watching beheading videos. As my wife Ayaan Hirsi Ali argues in a powerful new report, jihad is always preceded by dawa — the process of non-violent but toxic radicalization that transforms the petty criminal into a zealot.

          The network of dawa takes many different forms. In the UK a key role was played by the organization Al Muhajiroun (The Emigrants), to which Anjem Choudary belonged before his arrest. But there are many less visible organizations busily spreading the mind-poison.”

    • Dave

      Yes and it was Fallon’s bodyguard who saved the day when by a remarkable coincidence he just happened to be on hand, when by another remarkable coincidence the gates were left unguarded, when he killed a terrorist/patsy who had entered the courtyard no doubt thinking he was part of a series of mock drills that included a ridiculous Robocop stunt on the Thames a few days earlier. No doubt when the footage of a victim being rescued from the Thames was taken, but who has now by another remarkable coincidence suddenly died, at least officially, before they could speak! A reasonable assumption as the Panorama Special footage showing a blurred image racing in a straight line along Westminster bridge, didn’t show anyone jumping from the bridge, although it remains a remarkable coincidence that the 10 seconds sequence was being filmed from a helicopter at the time!

  • lysias

    I never donated to Jill Stein’s campaign (although I voted for her, and did donate a lot of money to Sanders’s campaign before it folded). If I said I did, I was lying, which I am pretty sure I would remember doing if I did it. Much more probably, I never said such a thing, and the self-confessed snitch has attributed to me, in a direct quotation using quotation marks, a statement I never made.

    • bevin

      The tell tale sign is the employment of quotation marks. He only ever uses them for his inventions, when he is actually plagiarising, cutting and pasting he never employs them.
      Why is this? I cannot say, my knowledge of clinical psychology is very elementary. But perhaps he longs to be taken for an original thinker, rather than a conformist with all the character traits that Adorno et al warned us of.

  • Republicofscotland

    I’m sure Habb (he was distraught over the death of a Russian poet) and others will join me in mourning the death of the great Soviet cosmonaut Georgy Grechko, who died today.

    “Grechko’s second space flight lasted more than three months from December 10, 1977 to March 16, 1978, setting what was then a record for the longest time in space.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/384046-soviet-cosmonaut-grechko-dies/

    Like America’s astronauts, the Soviet Union, had many fearless space pioneers.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Hardly surprising that Chines President Xi stopped at Anchorage on his way home to see what the Americans are doing in Alaska if there is an East-West military showdown over North Korea.

    He is very astute in dealing with potential opponents as his rise to power, and keeping it have demonstrated.

  • Courtenay Barnett

    America is bellicose
    Why when the US, Russia and Syria within the UN system are having talks does President Trump during a brief break – bomb Syria? Not as easy as the question appears at first glance.
    There is a history to America’s unrelenting aggressions around the world – which boil down to a post World War 11 embrace of the concept of ‘full spectrum dominance’ ( i.e. where ‘Spheres of influence’ would oblige the most powerful countries not to encroach on the territory of the other – the US foreign policy does not embrace nor abide by that concept. America places itself in an arrogant and aggressive position where it arrogates unto itself a right to act, attack, encroach, bomb as and when there is a determination that the US interest is best served by so doing. How so in attacking Iraq and Libya and fighting a proxy war in Syria – I have yet to determine. Dr. Martin Luther King had observed:-
    “I knew that I could not ever again raise my voice against the violence of the oppressed in the ghettos without having first spoken clearly to the greater purveyor of violence in the world: my own government.” Martin Luther King in his “Beyond Vietnam” April 4, 1967 speech
    That comment was as true when first made in the 1960s as it is today.
    Then before that General Eisenhower in his farewell speech warned of the military—industrial complex.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWiIYW_fBfY
    As relevant today as when he first made the observations about the US economy becoming a permanent war machine.
    Then to weld it all together consider what the architect of the ‘Cold War’, American diplomat George Kennan said:-
    “Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military-industrial establishment would have to go on, substantially unchanged, until some other adversary could be invented. Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy.”
    So, the Soviet Union did sink into the ocean and American bellicosity did not diminish – emboldened after the collapse it increased incursions and became more aggressive. That is the ‘natural trajectory’ of US foreign policy. With that historical context in mind – what then what is at play with the deployment of 59 US cruise missiles into Syria?
    The attack falls within the context of a US long-term plan for global aggressions as General Wesley Clarke reminds us:-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RC1Mepk_Sw

    Trump’s strike on Syria is a helpful and convenient distraction from his domestic political woes.
    This attack is driven initially by domestic US politics. Congress in the prevailing climate would undermine Trump if he did not, as he has done, attack a Russian asset. He is claiming in a very public and global manner that he is not a “Russian puppet”. However the underlying intentions behind US foreign policy cannot be forgotten. The road to Tehran leads through Damascus.
    Seems to me well orchestrated behind the scenes – now let us see – what next?
    ###End

    • Republicofscotland

      What the Great Satan (USA) needs is a modern day Harmodius and Aristogeiton, to deal with Assad, however self sacrifice would be part of the deal. ?

      • Courtenay Barnett

        Republic of Scotland,

        I note what you say about Harmodius and Aristogeiton:-

        ” What the Great Satan (USA) needs is a modern day Harmodius and Aristogeiton, to deal with Assad, however self sacrifice would be part of the deal”

        If you think out loud then you will easily discern that the US is not about “freedom” and democracy” – it is about global hegemony.

        In the Middle East name a more brutal regime than Saudi Arabia:-

        1. Britain’s double standards over Saudi Arabia are comparable to the US blind-eye approach:-

        http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3502079/Saudi-Arabia-s-kingdom-savagery-DOES-Britain-cosy-butchers.html
        2. Just the horrendous pre-medieval treatment of women is good enough cause to question this so-called “humanitarian intervention” ( ha! BULLISHT – MORE HAS TO DO WITH OIL INTERESTS AND ARMS PURCHASES THAN ANY HUMANITARIAN CONCERN)

        3. A secret autocratic rule made all the more secret by US refusal to act with any principle whatsoever in its dealings with Saudi Arabia.

        4. Peaceful protestors arrested then beheaded for publicly expressing their views ( and the US says – nada).

        5. Chop – chop – hands, heads and execute at a very high rate; bomb civilians in Yemen.

        So – Britain – US – where is the outrage?

        • Ball

          Courtenay,

          Don’t forget the crucifixions.

          Attend a peaceful protest = death by crucifixion in Saudi Arabia for some. Even children.

          And the vicars daughter has no problem with this.

          Stay classy Mrs May

          • laguerre

            Saudi doesn’t crucify people, they behead them. ISIS exposes the dead bodies hung up in public, which is what is called crucifixion in the media, but self-evidently isn’t.

    • RobG

      ‘Full spectrum dominance’ also includes “the information sphere” (I can’t find the exact quote at the moment, but it is well-known), which is why we are now subjected to the biggest propaganda machine in history, much of which is funded by tax payer’s money.

      • Courtenay Barnett

        Rob G,

        As the great Spike Milligan observed:-

        “All men are cremated equal”

        In Saudi Arabia it is the chopping, executions and tortures that I am concerned about – and not just to “All men”.

        • Republicofscotland

          “In Saudi Arabia it is the chopping, executions”

          ________

          Courtney.

          I know it’s of no consolation to those poor souls beheaded in Saudi Arabia, but they could’ve ended up with Jack Ketch as their executioner.

          Ketch was the infamous head chopper for king Charles II. He took five attempts to put politician William Russell out if his misery.

          His most notable cock-up however was that of the execution of the Duke of Monmouth. After three clumsy swings and two further hacks, the poor Duke was still alive, it took several deep cut with a sharp knife to finish the job.

          All very gruesome indeed. ?

          • Courtenay Barnett

            Republic of Scotland,

            Ah – there is my point.

            Ketch went about his duties at or about the 1680s.

            We are in the 21st Century and the same head copping is par for the course.

            My – how Saudi Arabia has progressed..

  • Dave Lawton

    Now here is something to think about. ANALYSIS by retired Col. Patrick LANG

    Donald Trump’s decision to launch cruise missile strikes on a Syrian Air Force Base was based on a lie. In the coming days the American people will learn that the Intelligence Community knew that Syria did not drop a military chemical weapon on innocent civilians in Idlib. Here is what happened.

    The Russians briefed the United States on the proposed target. This is a process that started more than two months ago. There is a dedicated phone line that is being used to coordinate and deconflict (i.e., prevent US and Russian air assets from shooting at each other) the upcoming operation.
    The United States was fully briefed on the fact that there was a target in Idlib that the Russians believes was a weapons/explosives depot for Islamic rebels.
    The Syrian Air Force hit the target with conventional weapons. All involved expected to see a massive secondary explosion. That did not happen. Instead, smoke, chemical smoke, began billowing from the site. It turns out that the Islamic rebels used that site to store chemicals, not sarin, that were deadly. The chemicals included organic phosphates and chlorine and they followed the wind and killed civilians.
    There was a strong wind blowing that day and the cloud was driven to a nearby village and caused casualties.
    We know it was not sarin. How? Very simple. The so-called “first responders” handled the victims without gloves. If this had been sarin they would have died. Sarin on the skin will kill you. How do I know? I went through “Live Agent” training at Fort McClellan in Alabama.
    There are members of the U.S. military who were aware this strike would occur and it was recorded. There is a film record. At least the Defense Intelligence Agency knows that this was not a chemical weapon attack. In fact, Syrian military chemical weapons were destroyed with the help of Russia.

    This is Gulf of Tonkin 2. How ironic. Donald Trump correctly castigated George W. Bush for launching an unprovoked, unjustified attack on Iraq in 2003. Now we have President Donald Trump doing the same damn thing. Worse in fact. Because the intelligence community had information showing that there was no chemical weapon launched by the Syrian Air Force.

    Here’s the good news. The Russians and Syrians were informed, or at least were aware, that the attack was coming. They were able to remove a large number of their assets. The base the United States hit was something of a backwater. Donald Trump gets to pretend that he is a tough guy. He is not. He is a fool.

    This attack was violation of international law. Donald Trump authorized an unjustified attack on a sovereign country. What is even more disturbing is that people like Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, CIA Director Mike Pompeo and NSA Director General McMaster went along with this charade. Front line troops know the truth. These facts will eventually come out. Donald Trump will most likely not finish his term as President. He will be impeached, I believe, once Congress is presented with irrefutable proof that he ignored and rejected intelligence that did not support the myth that Syria attacked with chemical weapons.

    It should also alarm American taxpayers that we launched $100 million dollars of missiles to blow up sand and camel shit. The Russians were aware that a strike was coming. I’m hoping that they and the Syrians withdrew their forces and aircraft from the base. Whatever hope I had that Donald Trump would be a new kind of President, that hope is extinguished. He is a child and a moron. He committed an act of war without justification. But the fault is not his alone. Those who sit atop the NSC, the DOD, the CIA, the Department of State should have resigned in protest. They did not. They are complicit in a war crime.

    About Patrick Lang

    Walter Patrick “Pat” Lang, Jr. (born May 31, 1940) is a commentator on the Middle East, a retired US Army officer and private intelligence analyst, and an author. After leaving uniformed military service as a Colonel, he held high-level posts in military intelligence as a civilian. He led intelligence analysis of the Middle East and South Asia for the Defense Department and world-wide HUMINT activities in a high-level equivalent to the rank of a lieutenant general. [WIKIPEDIA]

    • Republicofscotland

      Dave Lawton.

      Good comment, it clears a lot of confusion up as to what actually happened, the clincher, is the Sarin chemical which it wasn’t. As you explained.

      • Dave Lawton

        Republicofscotland
        What I do know about Sarin is limited to a NBC training exercise when I was in the RN in the late 1950`s
        They showed us horrific film of the effects of Sarin on a rabbit in a gas chamber..Also I remember the Navy put up
        a notice asking for volunteers to go to Porton Down to test a cure for the common cold. They were offering two
        weeks free leave. I smelt a rat so decided against it. I was lucky as it turns out. About twenty years ago
        I met a ex RAF nurse who was looking after the casualties from those experiments.He told me he had gone back
        to the secluded treatment building for the Sarin casualties but found it had been leveled and grassed over.

    • Chris Rogers

      Dave,

      Had you followed the thread closely, you’d have noticed I’ve linked in to Sic Semper Tyrannis on several occasions and have only just now finished reading another source recommended by Col. Lang – nice to see others are reading SST and kept informed by its rather good analysis of US policy in MENA and what’s been going on in Syria over the last 6 years – go course, to regulars here like Habbabkuk, Kempe and ResDes SST is another apologist outlet for Assad and Putin, which suggests they actually don’t pay attention to what’s being said or detailed.

      • Dave Lawton

        Chris
        Yes I looked at Sic Semper Tryrannis it is very good source thanks.

      • Resident Dissident

        wasn’t aware that I had expressed an opinion on SST – but I do know what you are!

    • Mark Golding

      Thanks Dave – Brennan’s Division 30 mercenary informer in Jordan suggests CIA pay-rolled Islamic rebel groups in Idlib were tasked to deliver and store crude chemicals in a concrete fuel store and given a set of coordinates days before the US Tomahawk strike..

  • michael norton

    Syria strike ‘vindicates’ North Korea’s nuclear choice

    52 minutes ago
    From the section Asia Ministry of Truth
    North Korea says a US missile strike on Syria “proves a million times over” that it was right to strengthen its nuclear programme, state media report.

    They cited an unnamed government spokesman saying Friday’s strike was an “intolerable act of aggression against a sovereign state”.

    • bevin

      There are no greater experts on this subject that the North Koreans, whose entire history since 1950 has been a campaign to ensure that the US aggression in the Korean war is never repeated with impunity.
      North Korea has been waiting almost eighty years for Peace Talks. Every time it looks as of South Korea, most of whose people want the same thing, will initiate preliminary feelers with a view to lifting the threat of war from the Korean nation, the US government intervenes, sometimes with a coup installing a Dictator, sometimes with fake documents ‘leaked’ or used to blackmail insufficiently submissive politicians. Sometimes with the crude propaganda South Korea’s deep state is famous for-
      ” Kim’s Uncle killed by mad dogs and fed to ravenous peasants, who later find deductions in their meat rations….”
      The fear is of Peace.
      And yet it is axiomatic in the “west” that North Korea, which wants re-unification and peace talks, is mad while the US, which has refused to discuss the questions for so many years, is in the right.
      Why? Because a lifetime of propaganda has taught us so, which means if we are wrong we are deluded and have been all our lives. And nobody wants to realise such a thing- a war with millions of casualties is preferable.

    • michael norton

      As Washington ponders Syria strategy, warplanes return to scene of sarin attack

      from The Guardian

      How does The Guardian know that Sarin gas was used, I do not for one moment believe the story that they have a snoop embeded with al quada

  • Jesse Pollard

    But despite the good weather 84yr Lady Porter wants to go back to israel, otherwise UK domicile will mean inheritance tax. Green has already renounced UK residence/domicile after £1.2b in dividends, the BHS pensioners are not amused. Now there are some real UK haters for you !!

  • Loony

    According to the Washington Post the only people not in favor of launching 59 Cruise Missiles on Syria (of which only 23 hit their targets) are people that hold “racist, anti-Semitic, and sexist views”

    Prove your progressive values – kill a Syrian!! You know it makes sense.

  • RobG

    You do like taking the P, don’t you.

    Some horse won a race this afternoon and Caligula is now running things.

  • Ball

    O/T but bear with me, I find it funny.

    From the sidebar ‘Currently Popular Posts’ I came across the ‘Alisher Usmanov, potential Arsenal chairman’ post by Craig. I interpret Craig’s post as him having a little bit of a disliking of AU.

    After reading that, I wiki the man himself – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alisher_Usmanov – and this stands out –
    ————————-
    He is a co‑owner of Russia’s second-largest mobile telephone operator, MegaFon, and co-owner of the Mail.ru group,[9] the largest internet company in the Russian-speaking world
    ————————-

    I then recall Craig’s contact form page –
    ————————-
    If you wish to contact me, please use the contact form above, or email:

    craigmurray AT mail DOT ru
    ————————-

    To sum up, duhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, why are you using the mans email facilities?

    What am I missing Watson?

    • glenn_uk

      I suppose all NTL/ Virgin Media customers absolutely love Branson, and you are in awe of the co-owners of your own ISP. (Who are they, btw?)

      I wonder how many people currently using the “Internets” in one form or another are big admirers (or have an opinion at all for that matter) of the individuals that own their service provider. You must have a pretty good idea on this one, since it’s such an important point to you, that you bring up as a point of criticism here.

      • Ball

        glenn,

        Calm down with the supposing. You sound hurt.

        There is quite a difference between an email provider and an ISP.

        You have a severely restricted ‘choice’ in the country you are located in with which ISP you can ‘choose’ to use. Only difference being the amount on your bill and the branding. Nothing more.

        Email providers are without borders, you can choose from anywhere in the world. Understand?

        Apologies that my attempt at light hearted humour came across as criticism.

        Its possibly better that Craig corrects this probable oversight (by himself and staff), before a more devious type uses it as an attack as a point of hypocrisy against the man, no?

        @Craig and staff – Were/are you aware Usmanov owned mail.ru?

    • Hmmm

      I think it might be his tech guy being careful. Probably less chance of cybermen attacks or some such.

  • RobG

    I will repeat again, for the sheep.

    America is now in danger of a first strike.

    Do you really think that you can go stomping around the world butchering people?

    Do you really think that you are ‘exceptional’?

    You might be hit by a nuclear attack that will send Americans back to the stone age, an era which most Americans will probably feel comfortable with.

  • RobG

    The biggest genocide in history took place in North America.

    These same psychos and loons still scream for war and death.

  • mauisurfer

    Donald Trump’s decision to launch cruise missile strikes on a Syrian Air Force Base was based on a lie. In the coming days the American people will learn that the Intelligence Community knew that Syria did not drop a military chemical weapon on innocent civilians in Idlib. Here is what happened:

    The Russians briefed the United States on the proposed target. This is a process that started more than two months ago. There is a dedicated phone line that is being used to coordinate and deconflict (i.e., prevent US and Russian air assets from shooting at each other) the upcoming operation.
    The United States was fully briefed on the fact that there was a target in Idlib that the Russians believes was a weapons/explosives depot for Islamic rebels.
    The Syrian Air Force hit the target with conventional weapons. All involved expected to see a massive secondary explosion. That did not happen. Instead, smoke, chemical smoke, began billowing from the site. It turns out that the Islamic rebels used that site to store chemicals, not sarin, that were deadly. The chemicals included organic phosphates and chlorine and they followed the wind and killed civilians.
    There was a strong wind blowing that day and the cloud was driven to a nearby village and caused casualties.
    We know it was not sarin. How? Very simple. The so-called “first responders” handled the victims without gloves. If this had been sarin they would have died. Sarin on the skin will kill you. How do I know? I went through “Live Agent” training at Fort McClellan in Alabama.

    There are members of the U.S. military who were aware this strike would occur and it was recorded. There is a film record. At least the Defense Intelligence Agency knows that this was not a chemical weapon attack. In fact, Syrian military chemical weapons were destroyed with the help of Russia.

    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/

  • mauisurfer

    Bashar al-Assad would have known that any use of chemical weapons would backfire, a former British ambassador to Syria told MEE.

    Peter Ford, who served in Damascus from 2003 to 2006, said it was out of character for the Syrian president to provoke his US counterpart, in this case Donald Trump, just as Washington was taking a softer line compared to Barack Obama’s policies on Syria.

    On Friday, US missiles hit a Syrian airfield in retaliation for an attack in Khan Sheikhun with a Sarin-like nerve agent that left up to 100 people dead. Washington blames the chemical incident on Assad, a charge the Syrian government has denied.

    He has an analytical mind and knows that actions have consequences

    Ford said: “Assad is not mad and would have known that when Donald Trump produced an olive branch in his direction, any use of chemical weapons would have been counter-productive.”

    http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/assad-not-mad-use-chemical-weapons-says-former-uk-ambassador-326905858

    In the weeks before the deadly attack, US officials said that to remove Assad from power was no longer a top priority.

    “He is someone who doesn’t leap without looking. He is trained as an ophthalmologist,” said Ford, who said he regularly met Assad during his service in Damascus. “He has an analytical mind and knows that actions have consequences.”

    Ford has disputed widespread reports that the Syrian government carried out a chemical attack. Instead, he is inclined to believe that Syrian aircraft inadvertently bombed a rebel-controlled chemical warfare factory or stockpile.

    He said there should be “no rush to judgment, no rush to war” because of the chemical incident in Khan Sheikhoun; instead, there needs to be a proper investigation into the facts of what happened before decisions were taken.
    Assad and Lebanon

    Ford has been a vocal critic of UK policy on Syria for several years. He has long believed it was a mistake for London to cut diplomatic links with Damascus and call for regime change.

    Many of Ford’s encounters with Assad concerned Lebanon in the aftermath of the crisis caused by the assassination in Beirut of the Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, in 2005.

  • mauisurfer

    go down toward end of this article from wikipedia (link below)
    begin where it says

    Hersh’s story: the generals
    and read as much as you have time for

    what this shows is that Obama actually cared about the truth of the allegations that Assad used sarin in 2013 in Ghouta

    Obama listened to general dempsey (who told him the sarin did not match assad’s sarin, also dempsey told obama that he would tell this truth to congress if obama went ahead with attack) so Obama cancelled the attack on Assad (and of course Obama read hersh saying it was turkey supported jihadists who released gas)
    and then obama came up with proposal to ask congress for resolution to save face – after Parliament had voted down the attack

    unfortunately Trump does not imagine there is such a thing as truth, cares nothing about it
    (unfortunately Obama withheld the truth about MH17)
    Trump makes up his mind to attack syria because he saw some staged video of dying children
    Latest i read is that Pompeo (Cia director) was not even at the meeting where trump decided to attack – he is not in any of the pictures of the meeting.

    if hillary were pres, usa would have bombed all syrian military bases months ago not just one base (with prior warning to russia)

    very unfortunate for USA that general dempsey is now retired

    also note the cooperation between USA military and Russian military
    and with Porton Down – cooperation that prevented a war based on false propaganda

    http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:British_involvement_in_Syria#Hersh.27s_story:_the_generals

  • mauisurfer

    Philip Giraldi– I am hearing from sources on the ground, in the Middle East, the people who are intimately familiar with the intelligence available are saying that the essential narrative we are all hearing about the Syrian government or the Russians using chemical weapons on innocent civilians is a sham. The intelligence confirms pretty much the account the Russians have been giving since last night which is that they hit a warehouse where al Qaida rebels were storing chemicals of their own and it basically caused an explosion that resulted in the casualties. Apparently the intelligence on this is very clear, and people both in the Agency and in the military who are aware of the intelligence are freaking out about this because essentially Trump completely misrepresented what he should already have known — but maybe didn’t–and they’re afraid this is moving towards a situation that could easily turn into an armed conflict.

    Scott Horton– Tell me everything you can about your sources or how you are learning about this?

    Philip Giraldi– Okay. These are essentially sources that are right on top of the issue right in the Middle East. They’re people who are stationed there with the military and the Intelligence agencies that are aware and have seen the intelligence And, as I say, they are coming back to contacts over here in the US essentially that they astonished at how this is being played by the administration and by the media and in some cases people are considering going public to stop it. They’re that concerned about it, that upset by what’s going on.

    Scott Horton– So current CIA officers are thinking about going public right now?

    Philip Giraldi– They are, because they’re that concerned about the way this thing is moving. They are military and intelligence personnel who are stationed in the Middle East and are active duty and they are seeing the intelligence the US government has in its hands about what happened in Syria, and the intelligence indicates that it was not an attack by the Syrian government using chemical weapons… There was an attack but it was with conventional weapons–a bomb– and the bomb ignited the chemicals that were already in place that had been put in there by the terrorist group affiliated with al Qaida.

    Scott Horton– You say this thing is moving really fast. How fast is this thing moving?

    Philip Giraldi– It’s moving really fast. Apparently the concern among the people who are active duty personnel is that the White House is anticipating doing something to take steps against the Syrian government What that might consist of nobody knows. But Trump was sending a fairly clear signal yesterday and so was our ambassador to the UN. about the heinousness of this act. Trump talked about crossing numerous “red lines” and they are essentially fearful that this is going to escalate . Now bear in mind, Assad had no motive for doing this. If anything, he had a negative motive. The Trump said there was no longer any reason to remove him from office, well, this was a big win for him. To turn around and use chemical weapons 48 hours later, does not fit ant reasonable scenario, although I’ve seen some floated out there, but they are quite ridiculous.” (The Scott Horton Show)

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/04/07/the-impending-clash-between-the-u-s-and-russia/

  • Dave

    It depends on what Trump was officially told. If he was officially told by neo-cons the chemical attack was by Assad, then the attack, after forewarning the Russians, has led to a big backlash against the fake news that imperils the world. The neo-con media was in full attack Assad mode, but now after a “symbolic” US attack there is widespread coverage exposing the truth about the “chemical” attack. Ironically the US attack is showing up the neo-cons for recklessly supporting it, which bursts their narrative, by bursting fake news, more than it harms Trump, who can now leave Syria, as he wants to do, after bursting the neo-con campaign to impeach him for being “pro-Russian”. I hope.

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