A Google news search returns 5,240 results for “Ferguslie Park” over the last 24 hours. As compared to 0 mentions in the previous 24 hours.
The media have, with an incredible level of unanimity, seized upon a Tory being elected to represent Ferguslie Park, “the most deprived area of Scotland”, as the leading evidence of a Tory resurgence into areas of Scotland “they could not previously venture into”. I have heard this recounted on every available broadcast platform this evening.
I have two bits of news for the unionist media. Firstly, Ferguslie Park is in Paisley. Most of you think it is in Glasgow. Secondly there is no ward called Ferguslie Park. There is a place called Ferguslie Park, and it is less than half of a ward called Paisley Northwest. Now here is the result of that stunning Tory super-victory amazing spectacular miraculous shocking earth-shattering mould-breaking Tory triumph in Paisley Northwest.
My, how the ground shook. In future years, everybody will recall just exactly where they were at the moment the Conservatives polled 13% in Paisley North West, when that vast uprising of 657 voters swept their candidate to victory on the 10th set of transfers into the fourth available slot in a multi-member constituency.
Now, this will come as a shock to some people. Paisley North West is not a dreadful slum, and contains some distinctly prosperous areas. Much of the ward looks like this.
Here are some statistics for the entire ward.
65% of households in Paisley North West are owner occupied
67% of the population of Paisley North West are employed, self employed or full time students
5.1% of the population of Paisley North West are unemployed
23% of the population of Paisley North West are pensioners
4.9% are housewives/husbands/carers or not in the labour force
In a local election poll with a low turnout, there is a disproportionately high turnout from pensioners and from the wealthier districts. Very few indeed of those measly 657 Tory votes came from the Ferguslie Park estate.
The real story is that in a ward with 65% owner-occupiers and 67% economically active, the Tories could still only manage a measly 13% of the vote. That the large majority of £350,000 owner occupiers do not vote Tory. The real story is that the SNP took 44% to the Tories 13%. But no, the march of Ruth’s 13%ers has apparently changed the course of history. As Tom Robinson once sang, “It’s there in the papers, must be the truth”.
Davidson was so happy last night, she celebrated and had some Nando’s. (Is that fried chicken? I for one do not have takeaways esp not chicken from a factory farm)
So much so, she tweeted about it and gave them a plug.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/860566300711677956?
She will probably get a free supply for life. Watch out for for those calories though Ruth!
Whereas Kezia is optimistic for June 8th.
Clearly there’s a big backlash against SNP plans for #indyref2 and in large parts of Scotland only Labour can beat the SNP on 8 June (2/2) ?
Kezia Dugdale @kezdugdale
Some questions. If figures are available. How many votes were redistributed each round from each losing candidate and to whom were they allocated?
I would hazard an educated guess that the vote required to win a seat was – floor(4989/(seats+1))+1 = 998.
Round 1. Kenny (SNP) wins a seat and 305 votes got distributed to his voters 2nd choices.
Round 2. Mags (SNP) wins a seat having received at least 187 of the transferred votes.
– Speculation. If Mags got all the transferred votes and all her supporters next preference was Sandra (SSP) then in the next round Sandra would have 160+ votes and Jack (LD) would probably be the candidate with the lowest vote. It’s possible – but highly unlikely so I think it’s a fairly safe bet that…
Round 3. Sandra (SSP) gets eliminated and her 42+ votes get transferred to her voters next available choices (not Kenny or Mags)
After that… is wild speculation as Sandra’s votes could have gone to anyone or been discarded if a ballot had no next preference.
Thanks for clearing that up. The quirks of the STV system continue to confound us too. Here in the 4 member Morningside Ward in Edinburgh Sandy Howat (SNP) came 4th on first preference votes in a tight five horse race but was pipped by the LD who came in fifth at round 10.
Otherwise the SNP would have 20 councillors not 19.
Which voting system is used for the General Election in Scotland? FPTP?
Sharp Ears Re GE 2017 Scotland –
” There are reports that there were an alarming high number of spoiled ballot papers. Not deliberately spoiled, but spoiled because people had marked them with an X instead of numbering their preferences. In Scotland we have different electoral systems for every set of elections. In local elections it’s the Single Transferrable Vote method, in Holyrood elections it’s the D’Hondt method with constituency votes topped up by a regional list vote, in European elections it’s a pure list vote, and in Westminster elections it’s first past the post. No wonder voters are confused. It would be far better if all elections in Scotland were conducted according to the same voting system, but that’s not going to happen until we get independence.”
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/
From 5,260 to ‘About 46,900 results’ now! incl your Twitter entry near the top.
Thanks Brian for the info. ATB and cheers.
The comment on the Google search was meant for the list.
As harsh as this sounds, if someone can’t understand how to vote I’m glad their vote is spoiled.
First past the post. put your X in the SNP Box.
Thank you. Shared.
Politicians fear all the MSM lies will hurt them, but in practice the public treat it all as back ground noise and makes little difference to the way they vote. Labour’s problem is it publicly promoted mass-immigration with enthusiasm, whereas Conservatives always feigned a heavy heart, and they are paying the price as their voters base has fractured due to identity politics, with the SNP becoming the national socialist, with little n and s, alternative at least in Scotland.
Whichever way you spin it the Tories did well in Scotland. Of course they didn’t beat the SNP – no one thought they would. The point is they have massively increased their presence in Scotland. You have been saying for years that that was an impossibility. Just the other day you were saying that the claim that the Tories could reach 29% in Scotland was so much bollocks that you would walk the length of Holyrood Road on your knees. That is now looking like a so distinct possibility.
I am laughing so much that I cannot think of a suitable comment
Wasn’t it hilarious?
Labour campaigned on the NHS, “poverty”, school lunches, food banks, “the rich”, austerity, more bank holidays….
And they got wiped out .
“Paisley North West is not a dreadful slum, and contains some distinctly prosperous areas.”
OK so it’s no Govanhill.
Brilliant Work Craig, Thank you
Ferguslie Park is just a few miles up the motorway from me. There has been a large number of dumbfounded
folk around here ( Inverclyde ) Where Labour only just Squeezed in ahead of SNP
I shall repost this, Cheers.
Interesting to see the change in first preference votes in Edinburgh since 2012.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860639725857656833
But…but…. Toories, rich, scum, Unglesh.
What does Unglesh mean
I assume it’s the language of the playground (?)
The unemployed people and those who are having their benefits sanctioned of Leeds, Bradford, Liverpool, London, Manchester and Newcastle etc. will be delighted that they are rich.
Type “Ferguslie Park” into Google Images and admire the results.
Salubrious for Scotland. ?
Type “Ferguslie Park” into Google Images and admire the results.
…. or if you’d prefer that people DIDN’T think you were stupid, Google “Paisley Northwest” and admire the results.
That’s Paisley, US.
Thank you for this, it’s absolutely brilliant and completely explains what was yesterday, inexplicable, knowing the small scheme/ area of Paisley the media was reporting to have elected a Tory. Yesterday’s reporting was beyond biased. It was inaccurate and FALSE NEWS.
People in Paisley, whether in the slums or in the upper-class areas (you can always tell someone from the upper-class areas of Paisley – they are the ones whose tattoos are spelt correctly) are well known for their .. errr … recreational habits.
Perhaps a ship-load of hallucinogenic drugs made its way into the city on Wednesday night.
But in 5 years time when the Benefits dry up and there’s no NHS to ease their noxious habits, they all might remember just who they voted for.
You really are quite odious aren’t you?
Getting sick of Tory propaganda. SNP were clearly the winners in the Scottish council elections.
The BBC are still showing the SNP as a net loss of 7 seats, basing it notionally on what the 2012 result would have been with the subsequent boundary changes. Yet they are simply giving the net gains or losses for the unionist parties by the difference between the actual and not the notional 2012 result and those parties’ 2017 seats tallies.
One rule for independence groups and another rule for unionists with the BBC.
The BBC influence spreads. Wikipedia’s page for the 2017 Scottish local elections uses the same BBC figures with acknowledgement.
Also two candidates named John McIntyre. Hmm.
Posting for 2nd time ……
Craig
Heard Girdon Brewer (BBC Radio Scotland) putting to Stephen Gethins that the SNP actually lost seats because of boundary changes , to which Gethins said “alright” , this was after S.G. stated that the SNP made gains. Why on earth did he not rubbish this. Was as if he was ill prepared for the point.
There would be a considerable amount of work required to come to the point about boundary changes. I don’t believe for one minute that this work has been undertaken, certainly not early after the numbers were out
yesterday.
An analysis that would throw much light on how the parties stand would be a totalling up of first preference votes expressed as a percentage of the total vote cast. This would allow an easy comparison to be made by the public. Of course that’s the last thing the State Broadcaster wants.
Keep up the good work Craig.
I assume that the Official Tory advertising by COMbbc is intended to influence voters in the fake General Election. Odd really because the FPTP system rigs itself but I suppose the Official Tories are trying for a 1983, rather than a 1992.
Where do you get the chart of figures from Craig?
Renfrewshire council website
The only reason that they got the councilor elected was that the SNP and Slab didn’t field enough candidates.
Thank you for posting this Craig. I have just stood down as Labour Councillor for ward 4 Paisley North West after nearly 20 years which takes me back to the days when Ferguslie Park was an individual ward . I have to say that the noise being made about Ferguslie Park allegedly voting Tory is risible and devious, no Tory would ever win an election in Ferguslie Park. The Tories were and still are regarded as poison there, the fact that they are along with the right wing press celebrating this victory demonstrates their veracity and not a little desperation. The total of 13% support from a ward of 12,000 + people highlights their lies.
Thank you Terry. It looks very likely the loss of your personal vote influenced this fluke result as well. Not in any sense blaming you for standing down, 20 years is a good hard stint. Hopefully we can convert you to the cause of Independence now. 🙂
Propaganda anybody that would vote torie in fergusliepark would have to have been bribed with a triple doze of methadone
Someone else has already alluded to this, but Rev Stu tweeted something which suggests that the Tory could have been elected by simple voter confusion. He has a similar name to local activist John Goudie McIntyre and may well have received a significant proportion of ‘his’ votes, which could have affected the result…
That seems very likely to me. John McIntyre may have piggybacked in on a confusion of names.
Do you think Scottish people can’t read?
North Lanarkshire Council haven’t put their figures up yet some I haven’t managed to see how I ended up with a Tory councillor yet. Given that Motherwell elected the first Communist MP in 1922 and the first SNP MP in 1945 it is highly disappointing.
The situation is similar here to Paisley. A couple of large council built schemes but also many expensive private properties and recently built private estates. You don’t really get the large areas of consistent deprivation in any Scottish town that are common to find in parts of England.
Found them now.
The single Tory got 1002 first choices. The two SNP candidates got 1727. The Labour candidates got 1555.
So in percentage terms of the total vote (4557) SNP 37% Labour 34% Tories 22%.
I see turnout in Paisley Northwest was just under 40%, the lowest in the Renfrewshire area, which suggests many of the inhabitants of Ferguslie Park didn’t bother to turn out and vote at all. In which case they deserve what they’ve got.
Some parts of the ward may be prosperous but it’s still possible to buy a one bed flat there for £25,000
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION%5E81552&sortType=1
A one bedroom flat for £25,000 is not uncommon over vast swathes of the United Kingdom, Kempe.
“In a local election poll with a low turnout, there is a disproportionately high turnout from pensioners and from the wealthier districts.” Which just got to show who the lazy bastards in society are doesn’t it.
Possibly it shows who are the disengaged and people without much hope.
I was just wondering, is there any possibility, given that the method isn’t straightforward, that the votes have been incorrectly tallied giving the Tories seats they shouldn’t have?
No.
The method is straight forward.
Or they could have been incorrectly tallied giving the Tories fewer seats than they should have. But that wasn’t the angle you were looking for, right?
To put it in perspective, Paisley NW, including Ferguslie Park, returned four councillors. SNP took 44% of the vote, Conservatives 13%. 4989 votes were cast of which 2114 were for SNP candidates, both of whom were elected. One Labour candidate polled 850 and was elected. The Con had 657 votes and was voted in at Stage 10 (last). Worth noting that 4332 votes were cast out 4989 for those who were not Conservative. There were ten candidates and it looks as though the Socialist (Labour, SSP), Lib Dems, Greens and two Independents split the vote sufficiently to allow the Conservative in.
It is also worth noting that in 2012, the SNP were much lauded at the result which placed Labour in second place, by winning by 31 seats. In 2017, the second placed Conservatives have been celebrating their “victory” in their “upsurge of popularity” by coming 155 seats behind the SNP!
Interesting !
Then there’s the very real possibility that some of his votes were mistakenly given by voters who meant the other John McIntyre, but didn’t recognise the middle name …