I believe this is extremely important, but having been published a few hours before the Manchester explosions, may have missed its audience:
Theresa May performed atrociously on her interview with Andrew Neil this evening. She was patently evading or lying on every question, and as usual repeating key phrases again and again whatever she was asked. I do not think I am naïve to believe this does seriously underestimate the intelligence of the electorate.
I thought that Andrew Neil did very well. He was unusually gentle with May – he interrupted her only three times in thirty minutes, and I am willing to bet will interrupt other leaders more. But his technique worked with May, because it gave her room again and again to trot out those robotic phrases and hack off the entire nation. Whether intentional by Neil or not, she used the rope he gave her to hang herself.
Twitter thinks she did very badly by about thirteen to one. Even Tories are saying so. And I think this is the strongest proof of what people really thought:
BUT not that many people will have watched. Far more people will see news reports of the interview than saw the actual interview, and those reports will give a very different impression to the reality. Nicola Sturgeon was viewed by those who saw the full Scottish leaders’ debate as having won, but all the news bulletins merely say she was monstered by the specially planted nurse, who was on Question Time last week and was specifically invited back by the BBC. Mmay will not have been pathetic when the News reports it.
It is a fact that in all opinion polls for the last week, Labour is doing better than their performance in the 2015 General election. They will have more voters. Yet the BBC continues to produce “vox pops” in the news, which they pass off as representative, interviewing Labour voters who are converting to Tory. Of five “ordinary” voters the BBC showed in a vox pop interview from Middlesborough today, one of the five was definitely switching from Labour to Tory, and another one was “probably” going to switch from Labour to Tory which was a “game changer”. The journalist concluded the Labour Party was struggling to hang on.
But that is not what the opinion polls tell us. The Labour vote is growing not falling, and the Tory vote is indeed growing, but mostly by transfers from UKIP, not by transfers from Labour. The BBC “vox pop” gives a deliberately false impression of what is happening. There is so much they do not tell us. How did the BBC find and contact these people who are switching from Labour to Tory? How many random people did they interview? What percentage of random people they interviewed were switching to Tory, and how did they select their sample? Did they find not one person who was switching to Labour – because the polls show that people are?
This blatant and undisguised propaganda continues all day every day. Fortunately even the most sophisticated propaganda has difficulty selling ordure as birthday cake. Every time May appears, the smell is deterring buyers. How they will hide her still further for the rest of the campaign, will be fascinating to behold.
ORIGINAL POST Look at this astonishing body language from Theresa May when confronting mild contradiction.
Note the tight lines of the mouth, the eyes darting from side to side as if seeking assistance or escape, the apparently involuntary small head movements signalling disengagement, which eventually develop into vigorous head-shaking. And that is just the body language. As ever, Theresa May was in a hall containing nobody except vetted senior Tory activists and mainstream media representatives. And yet, at six minutes in below, even that audience starts audibly jeering and dissenting.
All of which underlines a thought that has been pulling at me ever since the election started. May has continually tried to pitch this as a question of who you would wish to act as the negotiator of Brexit, either her or Jeremy Corbyn. But why would anybody believe that a woman who is not even capable to debate with her opponents would be a good negotiator?
In fact she would be an appalling negotiator. She becomes completely closed off when contradicted. She is incapable of thinking on her feet. She is undoubtedly the worst performer at Prime Minister’s Questions, either for government or opposition, since they were first broadcast. Why on earth would anybody think she would be a good negotiator? As soon as Michel Barnier made a point she was not expecting across the table, she would switch off and revert to cliché, and probably give off a great deal of hostility too.
The delusion she would negotiate well has been fed by the media employing all kinds of completely inappropriate metaphors for the Brexit negotiations. From metaphors of waging war to metaphors of playing poker, they all characterise the process as binary and aggressive.
In fact – and I speak as somebody who has undertaken very serious international negotiations, including of the UK maritime boundaries and as the Head of UK Delegation to the Sierra Leone Peace Talks – intenational negotiation is the opposite. It is a cooperative process and not a confrontational process. Almost all negotiations cover a range of points, and they work on the basis of you give a bit there, and I give a bit here. Each side has its bottom lines, subjects on which it cannot move at all or move but to a limited degree. Sometimes on a single subject two “bottom lines” can be in direct conflict. Across the whole range of thousands of subjects, you are trying to find a solution all can live with.
So empathy with your opposite number is a key requirement in a skilled negotiator, and everything I have ever seen about Theresa May marks her out as perhaps having less emotional intelligence than anybody I have ever observed. Bonhommie is also important. Genuine friendship can be a vital factor in reaching agreement, and it can happen in unexpected ways. But May has never been able to strike up friendships outside of a social circle limited to a very particular segment of English society, excluding the vast majority of the English, let alone Scots and heaven forfend continentals. The best negotiators have affability, or at least the ability to switch it on. It is a vital tool.
That is not to say occasionally you do not have to speak and stare hard to make plain that one of your bottom lines is real. But that is by no means the norm. And you need the intelligence and sharpness to carry it off, which May does not. That is one of the many differences between May and Thatcher.
Frankly, if I had the choice between sending in Jeremy Corbyn, with his politeness and reasonableness, or Theresa May, into a negotiation I would not hesitate for a second in choosing Corbyn. I am quite sure there is not another diplomat in the World who would make a different choice. May’s flakiness and intolerance of disagreement represent a disaster waiting to happen.
I’m not sure if she ever had it, but I did post that she lost it – a few days ago. However, I’m not a betting man.
The most important thing to note re her performance here is not just her body language, nor her impression of Ed Miliband – repeating the same nonsense in a loop (maybe they have both been programmed by the same team)..its that big heavy chain round her neck. I’ve never fancied girls like that. Most punks are O.K, beyond the hard facade – but Theresa May looks like she is a real S&M Queen…and thinks people will enjoy the pain she plans to inflict.
Tony
Have you noticed that while May is having an absolutely disastrous day in the middle of an election campaign, The Guardian has seen fit to devote all of the top of its (online) front page to articles about leaked facebook moderation rules…
The Guardian on May’s claims :
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/22/theresa-may-dementia-tax-u-turn-fake-claims-v-facts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
The Blairite rump must be getting very uncomfortable with the thought that Corbyn has even a slight chance of winning. It’s notable that the Indie is hammering the Tories much harder than the Guardian. Most of the latter´s journalists are simply very happy with the UK’s wealth inequality as it keeps them in a nice metropolitan lifestyle far from the unfortunate mob they so pity (but wouldn’t actually, really, wish better for). The newspaper’s editorial line has no ethical standards left. The character assassinations of Assange after Sweden dropped the case being a desperate instance.
Why should I bother jumping on an anti-May band-wagon when she has jumped on it herself? ” How could that ludicrous woman say all that stuff against the undeserving pensioners? It’s like a one-woman Punch & Judy show.
I thought Cameron was one of Britain’s worse PMs until May turned up. Intellectually shallow and brittle, she makes Trump seem quick witted. Combined with her complete lack of charm, political dishonesty, quick dips into snarling, and stark authoritarianism, including her very clear desire to crush all political opposition – which seems set to be her downfall – and it’s difficult to be polite or wish well of any electorate who would vote for her. Unfortunately a lot of people see their own grimaced and nasty reflection in her. Fortunately the majority are not the same. Let’s hope their combined vote sways this election.
But she is not a spiv like Cameron and Osborne. The latter is putting the boot in over at the ES. He has not forgiven her for not giving him a job.
‘Theresa May in U-turn on social care after facing Tory backlash
Theresa May performed an emergency U-turn today by promising to cap the so-called “dementia tax”.
The Prime Minister bowed in the face of a major Tory revolt over plans to increase the amount that elderly homeowners and savers will pay towards their care in old age.
In a reversal just four days after her manifesto was published, Mrs May said there will be an upper limit to the amount taken from people’s estates after their death. “We will make sure there’s an absolute limit on what people need to pay,” she said in a speech launching the Welsh version of the manifesto.
One senior Conservative, former deputy Speaker Nigel Evans, said she had not gone far enough and should unveil the exact level of the cap before polling day. Some Tories were suggesting £150,000, £200,000 and £300,000 as possible levels.
Evening Standard comment: Social care U-turn neither strong nor stable
Today, the Prime Minister shook her head as journalists accused her of abandoning “strong and stable leadership”, of having “buckled under pressure” and of being “weak and wobbly”. The manifesto had offered increased protection for the savings of many people, raising the amount of assets protected from being seized to £100,000 from the current £23,250 level in England. However, it extended the principle that homes could be counted as assets to cover bills for care at home, as well as care in residential homes. Polls suggest the proposal alarmed voters, with the Tory lead falling dramatically although still showing Mrs May as well ahead.
/..
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-in-uturn-on-social-care-after-facing-tory-backlash-a3545026.html
Andrew Neil grills Theresa May
Live
May changes social care plans; Labour brings forward tuition fees pledge; Greens launch ‘caring and confident’ manifesto; Last day to register to vote
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-39979839
No sign so far that the cooker is even switched on to complete the analogy.
Her stamina is being tested.
Andrew Alexander was the producer. Hope he’s not up to his old tricks on Friday when it’s Jeremy’s turn.
BBC producer deletes blog where he admits political manipulation before PM Questions
https://tompride.wordpress.com/2016/01/07/bbc-producer-deletes-blog-where-he-admits-political-manipulation-before-pm-questions/
Nuttall tomorrow, then Farron on Wednesday, and Sturgeon on Thursday.
Andrew Neil says that Theresa May hinted that a no deal over Brexit would have dire consequences for Britain. Of course a bad deal wouldn’t be much better.
It looks probable that the people of Britain, will be shafted either way.
On the matter of negotiation it is likely that David Davies will be doing most of the lead donkey work on this.
Before anyone breathes a sigh of relief or gets over excited enough to start crowing (Hab, we know you are lurking at the back there) over this a brief summary of his record can be found here:
https://musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/22/david-davis-brexit-negotiations/amp/
Looks like Dad’s Army is in charge at present.
“Looks like Dad’s Army is in charge at present”
________
Harry that’s a bit of a slur on Dads Army, no the Tory government are more akin to the Keystone Cops. ?
Negotiation requires a very intelligent, imaginative, strong willed, dynamic and flexible.personality one able to hold many ideas and positions and who always remembers what is essential. Teresa May just ain’t that person. Perhaps she is not the one who will be negotiating, but she is selling herself as such & srlling the party as her. She looks rigid and potentially unstable. Perhaps someone talented will come forward………..
Negotiations on a US trade deal begin on June 9. They may include exploration of the UK joining Nafta or a clone. In the end Trump will pick up the phone and tell Merkel or whoever, sort it.
And lest we forget, as I understand it, Europe’s exports to Britain are greater than the other way round.
Alcyone,
Hope Corbyn enjoys the negotiations.
And You mean 27 countries exporting to one is greater than one exporting to 27. Ahhhhhh, Who knew.
The one takes the much greater hit than 27 others sharing.
She’s like Clinton Mk II (or should that be Mk III?) unlike Corbyn, who according to my informant who watched him today in Hull spoke eloquently. She said he knew how to handle a crowd in the best possible taste, unlike the corp-0-rat canard.
Just watched Andrew Neils interview with the strung unstable leader Mrs May, she was truly appalling, I don’t think I have ever seen a worse interview performance by the leader of a political party. Poise, presentation, command of her brief, ability to give cogent answers to the questions posed to her, and even the ability to pass herself off as a reasonable facsimile of a real person, all of these things were completely absent.
She looked like a frightened rabbit caught in the headlights, unable to answer any questions, repeatedly gibbering the mantras Lynton programmed her with, “Strung unstable” “grow the economy ” “it’s a choice between me and Jeremy Corbyn “.
Truly, excruciatingly fecking awful
Are you getting ready to be a sore loser?
I was just thinking, instead of Craig telling us how he sobbed into his laptop after watching “I, Daniel Blake”, whilst travelling business class to Africa, why doesn’t he travel economy class and donate the difference in the fare to the poor?
Anon1,
Why do you keep re-posting this? Comes over as desperate.
Why doesn’t Craig not travel at all and hand over his house to the homeless? Why? Why? Why?
I take it you just finished your shift at the food bank?
Because of his past with deep vein thrombosis which you would know about if you wre interested in Craig rather than just coming her for an argument
Anon1
I have sticky blood syndrome and had five days in a coma after a DVT. Plus it wasn’t me paying and I didn’t have an option of cash and a cheaper ticket. Any more stupid questions?
A walk a day will keep the stickyness away. Applies to me too–this blog is getting too sticky. Going to have to try harder to get banned.
Can you please leave the planted nurse alone. Poor woman was so dim she probably thinks that the Tories have stopped tax credits altogether. I did a quick online calculation on her behalf: if she has one child, no partner and earns approx: £22,000 per annum then she should get a further £132.00 every 28 days chold tax credit. Now I’m not saying you can travel to NY city or have a champagne lunch at Malmaison on that, but it might help with the stabling costs or a bale or two of hay and it’s a damped sight better than those who have to survive on EESA of £250 every fortnight in total. Not forgetting the eligibility for child benefit and maintenance.
C avery,
You misunderstand the poor nurses plight. The food bank was located in New York. The flight, champagne and shopping spree were all unfortunate necessities. Poor thing.
When I meet someone for the first time, I take a good look at their eyes. May and Blair have similar eyes, which tells me neither can be trusted.
When I got the vote at 21, fifty odd years ago, politicians have been saying “they know how to make things better, how to fix it”. I am still waiting to see it fixed.
Corbyn has been saying the same things forever, so you know what you are getting. I have never voted for Labour. If I was living in England, I think I would vote Labour this time.
Robert what a horrible thought. Made me feel unwell.
They do have similar eyes and she is another witless blairite from the blairite family of idiots.
Appreciate all the work you do. Thank you.
Seconded.
The best Vox pop I heard recently was on Radio 4. The BBC was running a council election piece from two “former” labour voters in Cardiff who had voted Tory for the first time in their lives because they hated Corbyn. The next announcement appeared: Cardiff a hold for labour!
Jim (Callaghan)fixed it and Cardigff stayed fixed
You are one of the first people I’ve noticed who has stated that all this confrontational crap is going to put people’s backs up and be counter-productive in the talks.
The problem is it plays well to the Brexit crowd: the sort who relish Farages outbursts in the European parliament as ‘sticking two fingers up to the bureaucrats’. That’s the demographic may has to pander to to drive her advantage home: it looks like that strategy may be backfiring as moderate conservative voters wake up to the stench of that manifesto!
Never needed it. How about you?
What do you make of this?
http://www.moonofalabama.org/images5/theorbrulesthemall.jpg
Apparently it’s a forbidden site
Russian.
Ah that picture – it’s a giant illuminated button that set of a bunch of lights etc for an opening ceremony – we use them in corporate events parties when the host want to impress everyone, it’s pretty pathetic actually, it’s sort of like a champagne bottle on a ship, only more tacky.
“And this, Effendi, will infallibly make your hands grow bigger….”
There’s a better version here.
I agree with you Craig. Andrew Neil let Theresa May hang herself and he will be much more combative with Paul Nuttall, Tim Farron, Nicola Sturgeon and Jeremy Corbyn. I think his aggression will rise through the week.
I think there are other forces at play now. His final question was very interesting, along the lines of how long will you be around?
Not for long I think. She’s swimming with much bigger sharks in the Tory Party than she is herself. I think she’s going to be savaged.
Scotland please copy…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAQ8CtCXYAAA0EU.jpg
A nice counter to the repeated-meme assault. And so easy.
After seeing them both a bit i can’t imagine any sensible people thinking Theresa May along with the Tory machine would be at all competent for the uk.
Compare that to JC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGzPo8Wx1n0
Frankly I’m amazed so many can trash him given his obvious qualities. It seems like only some perverse self harming nutters would back TM as PM for the country. And it doesn’t take some kind of special insight to see it. The same can’t be said for her backers, who I just can’t see what they are on about.
If May had any serious regard for the good of the country she would see the stark contrast in their campaigns and quit. But it’s clear that kind of quality isn’t regarded by Her or many people nowadays, If it ever has been in the political classes?
The Acid Test: Whom of the below listed persons would you employ in your business?
Theresa May? Davis? Johnson?Fox? Green?Corbyn?Nutall?
And for the Scots, Dugdale?Harvey?Davidson?Rennie?Sturgeon?
May is toast. She ‘May’ get through this election, but her number is up soon. The Tories may be somewhat malicious and dim, but they are ruthless; they’ve picked the wrong leader, and they know it. So, I put it to Craig, and the thread, who is perhaps the next PM of the UK, after another year or two of May?
After a brief stint as Chancellor, step forward: Dr Liam Fox! I think Werrity gets given Scotland should this occur, or at least a large stake in the oil fields.
Mind, apparently Labour just gained 16 points in Wales. I have said from the beginning JC can win, and I would be extremely pleased to be correct. Still unlikely, naturally.
Brexit is a poisoned chalice. It will be toxic to any party who handle it. Personally I think the tories should limp on with a shallow majority, to clear up the mess they made, and fully take the rap. The rhetoric about who will do the best job of Brexit is just that: it’s an unwinnable situation and the opposition are best off waiting in the wings in my opinion.
It’s a poison chalice although your solution is suspect. You’re inviting the destruction of the NHS in England, the Toxic Trade Treaties, further structural euthanasia, further de-regulation, continued economic decline, further inequality in everything from the (in)Justice System to Education, derisory investment in renewable technology, increasing subsidies to oil, the cascading cluster-f**k of the EU negotiations, greater haemorrhaging of excellence in science, technology and industry, continued hollowing out of institutions from the NHS to the BBC, increasing delusion amongst the ruling class and an ever greater removal of whatever freedom remains.
No thanks mate.
May wasn’t picked by anyone, though. She won because Johnson lacked the bottle to be a grown up and assume responsibility for what he had helped create. And the remaining ‘candidates’ fell by the wayside. If May loses this election she herself called, it will be one of the biggest political humiliations in British political history, even worse than Cameron’s. And thoroughly deserved. Still too good be true, of course.
There are reports of explosions just after a concert finished in Manchester Arena. Several fatalities confirmed. I’m wondering if it might have been the speakers going bang when someone disconnected them without powering down, people thought it was a bomb, and a stampede ensued.
Wonder away Node, wonder away.
Twitter is saying nail bomb, unconfirmed. Hopefully this is wrong, because that’s horrific.
Sky News saying 19 people confirmed dead, 50 injured.
Being treated as a “terrorist incident”
Not good at all.
Motherfuckers. I knew there would be something like this if it looked like they were going to lose.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/noam-chomsky-donald-trump-fake-terror-attack-false-flag-supporters-fanbase-policies-budget-cuts-a7655186.html
As in the USA so in the UK ? Time for a ‘ strong and stable ‘ Leader ?
Really good and thoughtful piece, Craig. It has baffled me that the tories, the sensible ones who should know better, think that stoking confrontation, eagerly egged on by the venal tabloids, will somehow make a successful negotiation, over some of the most complex and important matters for this country since the war. First of all, May has ruled out the positions which would have been an acceptable compromise between leaving and tanking the economy. Whatever she privately thought, giving up your best options, in order to play to the ukip gallery, is particularly stupid. She has already painted herself into a corner before they have even started, which must surely break the first rule of negotiating. Further she and her coterie of dim blowhards thought it a bright idea to shower abuse and mockery on to the people who they depend for a successful outcome. Another idiotic move.
But to go the country claiming that she is the only person fit to negotiate successfully, given these elementary blunders, beggars belief, and betrays a hubris which will make her failure an epic event, and catastrophe. She has nowhere to go in these negotiations, given her rhetoric and very ill-advised stoking of expectations amongst the British electorate that we can benefit from being outside of every mechanism and treaty which has benefitted the uk enormously for the last thirty years.
The simplistic arrogance of thinking she can ape Thatcher and demand what she wants or she walks away is so facile and utterly wrong. Thatcher had leverage, being an EU member. We have next to none, despite all the ridiculous bragging of the second rate public schoolboys she has employed.
She and her team are by fat the worst people to be negotiators it is possible to think of, empty-headed braggarts who have deluded a lot of the public for their own vainglorious ambitions. Nicola Sturgeon would wipe the floor with these people, and would prove a very able negotiator. She is tough, shrewd, and understands the necessity of staying within European mechanisms for the good of the economy. A responsible politician would explain that to people, and sell it as the best of both worlds, or at least the best possible deal in the situation we have. Sturgeon set it out in her white paper, the only party to have thought seriously about it and looked for real solutions. May thinks it is clever to have no defined set of goals,, in order to avoid scrutiny, and thinks she can get elected to negotiate without answering any questions on what her aims are or a detailed analysis of the options. She is an utter disaster, and it is slowly becoming apparent how inept and amateurish she and her operation are.
But hey, why should she worry when most of the media won’t question it, and will keep parroting her only answer – that Corbyn is the bogey man, so we must all cling to her apron strings. Truly pathetic, she is a scheming, dishonest, small-minded, unintelligent, inexperienced functionary promoted way beyond her abilities. And we will all suffer for it.
The European concept was a wonderful idea when it was a tariff free trading zone. Then it became a monetary, political and military (Nato) arrangement.
Whether this was always the intention and the original concept was corrupted by NeoCon and Neoliberal forces is not clear. But, in its present form it is a juggernaut that is undermining the economies of Europe, apart from Germany.
The subjugation of Nato to the military designs of Washington and the demonisation, hostility and brinkmanship on the Baltic borders with Russia, brings us close to war in Europe, while the USA sits back and enjoys the destruction from 5k miles away.
Nato ,like a well trained puppy, once more ,prepares to exhaust itself in a futile European war. With the USA prepared, as usual, to come late to the show to claim the laurels and benefits of a destroyed Europe.
On the Economic front, the rigidity of Mario Draghi and the ECB to fail to loosen fiscal policy and invest in the peripheral countries is a road to poverty.
The Stability & Growth Pact is a misnomer and is in effect an austerity package in a strait jacket of a 3% working deficit. This is inadequate to promote growth.
The economic road ahead for the PIIGS is one of destruction of their economies, the forced privatisation of their State assets and a downward spiral to poverty and civil unrest. This outcome is a Neoliberals wet dream.
Again, whether this was intentional or the result of incompetent economic planners is unimportant, this will be the result .
There will be more countries take the Brexit route if they wish to survive as Nation States and prevent anarchy on their streets.
You’re mixing up and conflating several supra-national institutions. However the point of this topic is about May’s competence at negotiating.
As Craig says, the incredible hubris of May demanding to be elected as a ‘strong’ negotiator, when all she has done is to provide an object lesson in how NOT to negotiate, is staggering. Her lack of self-knowledge and awareness is terrifying, as will be the outcome of these utterly incompetent people at negotiating.
This is strange, posted within 1 hour and 30 mins, new account, strange name, as yet no one else is making the same claim:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClVfKsP3_Nxa7_V13SwyVcw
http://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/index.html?1495523350
Apparently Bevin is gone; was it something he said? There’s always a welcome at TLN.
Let her fall on its own mistakes! No bother with this! She has some support otherwise she was loosing already! Who’s counting the mistakes!