UPDATE I calculate Tory vote share in Scotland on results so far as 26%. The BBC is proclaiming this as a triumph and ringing endorsement for Ruth Davidson, and final refutation of Independence. I calculate Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour UK wide vote share so far as 28%. This is abject failure and a total rejection of Labour, according to the BBC. How 26% is a great triumph, and 28% an abject defeat, no doubt the current GCHQ shift will explain below.
Unlike England and Wales, the Scottish elections are on the proportional STV system. With their Scottish 26%, the Tories are picking up some gains in third or fourth place in multi-member wards. Under the English FPTP system, the Tories would have gained almost nothing in Scotland.
Interestingly nowhere on the BBC news or website can I find any indication of Scottish vote share, only UK vote share. But of course if the BBC gave the Tory Scottish vote share it would rather spoil the Tory triumph narrative.
Oh, and we now know it is YouGove who are the charlatans.
ORIGINAL POST I do like simple binary possibilities, they are much less hard work than complex thought. Today we have one. By tea-time we will know which of two possibilities is correct.
Possibility a) Craig Murray is a deluded old fool who has no understanding of politics and is totally out of touch with the people of Scotland
Possibility b) YouGove are a bunch of charlatans who produce polling about Scotland deliberately designed to exaggerate the success of unionists and Tories, in order to provide pegs for the media to hang Tory propaganda and to attract the weak-minded to the “winning” position.
YouGove’s Scottish polling figures continually produce results which are to me impossible, showing Scotland is a nation enamoured of the Conservatives.
The Scottish component of Today’s YouGove opinion poll for the Times has
Scotland
SNP 40%
Conservative 37%
Labour 15%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 1%
Fortunately yesterday every local council in Scotland had an election, and we shall soon start to see results. So am I a fool or are YouGove charlatans? Will the Tories get 37%? Will the unionist parties combined get 58%?
On a technical note, yes that poll has a fairly small Scottish subsample of 209. But it is one of a series in which YouGove has consistently produced much higher figures for Tories in Scotland, and much lower figures for the SNP in Scotland, than other pollsters. For example three days ago the Scottish element of the latest Panelbase poll had the Tories on 19%.
Ah, Craig. You really do need to read Tetlock on forecasting. The simple trick is to not forecast what you want to happen or would like to see. Instead, cold-heartedly, have a stab at what is likely to happen. Always a challenge for yer partisans, I know.
What is much more extraordinary is not forecasting ability, but your ability to see what has already happened in the way you desire. The Tories are on about 26% of the vote so far in Scotland. Because Scottish local elections are on STV, that picks them up some third or fourth place seats in wards. Big deal.
Craig
You are not deluded my friend .
We need to evaluate the actual result and then comment .
We are in a situation where the right wing press dominates the outcome .
Sadly this will eventually lead to an explosive situation in Scotland and elsewhere which will be difficult to control
The Tories are being told not to crow as it would not go down well with the electorate who might react negatively in the GE vote. 🙂
Very sensible advice, methinks. The Conservatives must also guard against showing over-confidence lest some of their support decides it’s not necessary for them to vote.
As a neutral observer I would say that Mrs May has played a blinder and that things are going very satisfactorily for her.
Typo here again. Should read ‘Played a Blunder’ to come anywhere near the truth.
We shall see come 8 June 🙂
She may well have “played a blinder” in the narrow sense of winning a large majority. It’s less clear that she has the slightest idea what to dfo with it, beyond enrich herself and her friends.
From this observer I can honestly say that any posts from yourself on here have been anything but neutral.
That, I think, will last about 2 days, then they’ll be bouyed by their support in the Daily Fail and BBC and be all over the place telling everyone that they’re the real winners in all of this.
Most Anglo-Americans don’t know their asses from a hole in the ground when it comes to helping themselves and their country in any voting.
You are not a charlatan, Craig, just another well-meaning liberal who places too much confidence in their electorates which must experience much adversity to change any of their habits.
The £1 million spent by the ex John Lewis executive, Andy Street, in the election campaign for West Midlands mayor did the trick. He has won.
Cameron was always quoting John Lewis as the model to follow. It is a partnership.
The Wikipedia page reads like an election pamphlet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Street
Speak to a few John Lewis staff – it’s being taken over by the usual suspects and the “partnership model” is rapidly being dismantled.
Such a model was never going to be suffered to exist and show up the low grade, low quality garbage that is the norm in British Business!
The BBC are showing the SNP as making a net loss of 7 seats from 2012. Yet they’ve actually made a net gain.
In 2012 the SNP got 425 seats and in 2017 431 seats. I can only figure the BBC are counting the SNP council by-election gains since 2012 to make 431 a net loss of 7 seats instead of how they should be reporting it as a net gain of 6.
The manipulative narratives that the BBC put out are very obvious now.
BBC newsreader Jane Hill now saying the SNP have a net loss of 14 seats!
They’re not even consistent in their lying.
Aren’t the BBC crowd looking weary? They must go home at night and think about what an awful job they are doing for a living.
At the start of the Scottish results Laura Kuennsberg was eagerly reporting that the SNP leader in Fife had lost his seat to the Tories. He hadn’t. He lost his seat to an SNP colleague who was also standing in the ward.
Yes even the Guardian, having collated all Scottish seats, show a SNP net gain of 35 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/may/04/local-and-mayoral-elections-2017-live-results-tracker#Scotland
Quote:- ” Boundary changes have occurred in many councils in Scotland. Seat change is based on notional 2012 results, which estimate what the results would have been then if the new boundaries had been in place. “
There is no net increase in total councillors. The SNP have 35 more seats than they had at the 2102 elections (ignoring by election votes since). How you make that minus 7 is beyond me. The Guardian make it plus 35 and the Telegraph plus 31.
Kempe.
Stick to bumming up old crusty prince Phil, there’s a good lad. ?
The Surrey map. Blue, Blue, my heart is blue……
https://www4.surreycc.gov.uk/election2017/
In my ward, under a third of those eligible to vote returned the standing Tory councillor who is only seen and heard at election times, with a poor attendance record at council meetings.
From your various writings I gather you dislike all the main political parties in England (you’ve kept rather quiet about the SNP). So did you go and vote yesterday or did you do a” Melenchon”?
Mélenchon said he was going to vote, only he didn’t say for whom. I suppose that means vote blanc (putting an unmarked ballot paper into the box.)
Which is the same as not voting at all, isn’t it. A silly, puerile act.
I predict that in a couple of years M.Melechon will be history, a ghostly voice from the past.
(Not quite correct – it increases the turn-out figure).
voter blanc is very common in France.
Scottish Labour now have a huge dilemma. Do they go into coalition with a hard right Tory Party on a large number of councils across Scotland and alienate even more of their support or do they finally admit they are not better together with them.
I don’t have any skin in this game but it strikes me that Craig protesteth too much.
No one has given the detailed Scottish vote share as far as I can see, not even the SNP website, though this will doubtless be done when someone has time to do the arithmetic.
So seeing BBC plots in everything seems a bit paranoid and hyperbolic, as a neutral with no great love of that overpaid institution. And while I find Kuenssberg as irritating as the next person, I cannot fathom the vituperous hatred of her on this site.
But on any neutral’s reading 431 seats out of 1,227 is 35% of the seats, with the Tories at 276 on 22% and Labour in third place on 262 seats or 21% is hardly a decisive outcome for anyone, as would be expected under STV. But if anyone has done better than expected it is surely the Tories, pushing Labour into third place?
What am I missing?
Genuinely puzzled.
You are missing the fact that YouGove had the Tories 2 points behind the SNP in Scotland, and in fact they are about 15 points behind. That is pretty easy to understand, even for a monkey.
Craig, I didn’t mention that, because it was just one poll, not a campaign or a series, and as you recognise it was a small sample as part of a national poll.
I do get that opinion polls are untrustworthy and often done like a drunk hanging on a lap post – for support not illumination, as Daryl Huff so elegantly put it. And I’m very ready to believe that YouGov are part of the problem.
However, that was not my point. How about answering the question I asked, which was about why you are having a go at the BBC for not revealing the vote share, not deflect from it by hammering on about an opinion poll few will have taken seriously, as you quite rightly rail against politicians for doing.
John, the issue is that there is long history here, going back to the IndyRef. The BBC has history.
I am English, but noticed at the time of the Referendum that there seemed to be something decidedly “off” about the coverage. Then when it came to the Labour leadership election, I saw it again in spades. Finally, with Brexit, it was undeniable. The BBC will peddle the establishment line relentlessly. That means pro Union, pro EU, pro Neoliberalism (whether Tory or New Labour).
You may also be aware that Kuenssberg, a self-declared Conservative, conspired with a New Labour rebel to time his resignation to deliver a party political advantage to the Tories, and was later censured by the BBC Trust for her false reporting about Corbyn:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/18/bbc-trust-says-laura-kuenssberg-report-on-jeremy-corbyn-was-inaccurate-labour
So the interpretation here is not just about this as a single incident. The BBC has forfeited any entitlement to the benefit of the doubt.
I found YouGov, were not to be trusted during the the run up to the 2014 indyref. I still don’t trust them.
Unbelievably, Lord Ashcrofts polls in my opinion, exhibited more realistic data during the last indyref than YouGov.
Yougov put out a poll saying that the Tories are on 37% for the GE in Scotland.
However at the council elections they got 25% of the seats under a STV system which means they probably got 20%-25% of the vote. Basically Craig is saying what many people think namely that that Yougov release polls near elections with figures that are designed to get reluctant Tories out voting. Yougov released a poll which showed Yes ahead a week ahead of the Indyref, Yougov released a poll which showed the Tories and Labour tied on 33% a few days before the last general election and now this crazy poll timed to add evidence to a Scottish Tory comeback.
I get that, share your misgivings about the way polls are used.
But I was commenting not on that but on Craig’s update, which was very critical of the BBC for it’s interpretation of the results and attacked them for not publishing the vote share, which no-one else had either. As I said, I’m no great fan of the BBC but have a go at them based on a better case!
No one will answer your question, John.
You should know that it is customary on this blog to divert and deflect when someone poses a good question to which the Eminences have no answer.
I know, but as I’m not one of the usual suspects I did think I might get a reasoned response…
Back to dipping into this site every couple of days in case anything interesting is posted, I fear.
Well-some are Eminences. And some are Prophets, apparently.
“I’m no great fan of the BBC but have a go at them based on a better case!”
________
John.
If the BBC, reported that it was raining in Scotland. I and I’m sure a few others would feel inclined to look out the window to see if it was true.
This one incident is the very small tip of a humungus iceberg. I doubt Scots will ever trust the state broadcaster again.
Check out this guys excellent book.
London Calling by GA Ponsonby.
It’s always horrible to see Tories getting any joy in Scotland but I think this could be a positive.
When Indyref2 happens there will be no hiding what we are voting on. The No side will consist of Tories, bigots and the elderly. These are not groups which history favours.
I disagree utterly with your position and do so as a supporter of independence. I am sick to the back teeth of people like you whose views simply increase the NO vote!
Yip agree Craig, listening to the unionist media, you’d have thought the Tories in Scotland had the biggest majority, when infact it’s the SNP, who are the daddy.
The SNP, even took Tammney hall (Glasgow) from the Red Tories, brilliant.
As for the Red Tories down South, well the media has been following Jeremy Corbyn around today asking if he’s now going to resign every five minutes.
Jeremy Corbyn is not a Red Tory you clown.
The SNP includes right wingers such as Tasmina Asmin Sheik, John Mason, The Ewings and John Swinney.
Stu.
Corbyn allowed his MP’s to traipse through the corridors of Westminster and back Theresa May-hem’s hard Brexit
Corbyn ruled out any coalition with the SNP at Westminster when it comes to fighting the Tories.
Corbyn at first claimed that Scots should have a second indyref, then quickly changed his mind.
“Corbyn allowed his MP’s to traipse through the corridors of Westminster and back Theresa May-hem’s hard Brexit”
A tactical move. There is no point going against a referendum result that is guaranteed to be passed anyway. They voted for A10, not hard brexit. If they had voted the other way what would have been the difference?
“Corbyn ruled out any coalition with the SNP at Westminster when it comes to fighting the Tories.”
He has to English voters don’t like the idea of a Labour-SNP coalition. That’s why Lynton Crosby focused on it massively last time.
“Corbyn at first claimed that Scots should have a second indyref, then quickly changed his mind.”
His position was always they don’t back a referendum but if there is to be one then so be it. It’s an entirely reasonable position from a reasonable man.
The SNP are one issue party desperately clinging to the centre ground. They can only hold it for so long.
“The SNP are one issue party desperately clinging to the centre ground. They can only hold it for so long.”
________
They’ve been holding it for ten years now and are still going strong, now who’s the clown?
Corbyn didn’t have the balls to stop May calling a snap GE, even though there’s a parliament act to do so.
If he did May would’ve needed to declare no confidence in her government, to hold a GE, it would’ve damaged the Blue Tories reputation.
No Corbyn bottled it, and went along with the Blue Tories, at a time when Labour down South are in a very weak position, and if these council elections are a gauge to the GE, Corbyn and his Blairites, that are dotted throughtout Labour are in big trouble.
I’m of a mind that Corbyn is either, naive, inept, or not as opposed to the Tories as he makes out to be, he’s certainly anti-EU-in1993, he spoke out against the Maastricht Treaty.
You seem to have a very simple view of things.
I’ll explain something to you. The Tories had a majority. This meant that after Leave won the Brexit vote A50 was guaranteed to be invoked. This meant that after May announced an election there was guaranteed to be an election. Tories only rebel to the right, her majority is rock solid whether it’s one or two hundred.
You may believe that Corbyn leading losing battles against inevitable outcomes would have strengthened him, I believe that with the media against him and plotters in his own party to deal with fighting either of these battles for no reason at all would have been insane. All you would have heard is “Corbyn opposes the will of the people”, “Corbyn is terrified of an election”
Corbyn is a genuine socialist. A genuine advocate of progressive politics. A man who is not in politics to line his own pockets. The SNP on the other hand contain many good individuals but the requirement to get a majority for independence has led them to dull, small c conservative legislative agenda in Holyrood. We have had a parliament for almost 18 years and yet we have barely seen it act as parliament.
It’s a tragedy that the battle for Independence has killed any genuine progressive agenda in Scotland and let the Tories sneak back in to public favour.
“Corbyn is a genuine socialist. A genuine advocate of progressive politics. A man who is not in politics to line his own pockets. The SNP on the other hand contain many good individuals but the requirement to get a majority for independence has led them to dull, small c conservative legislative agenda in Holyrood. We have had a parliament for almost 18 years and yet we have barely seen it act as parliament.”
________
Oh please spare me your delusions, Labour is rife from top to bottom with Blairites, who are playing pretendy socialism. Corbyn may very well be a socialist at heart, but Labour are not.
As for lining his own pockets, Corbyn doesnt seem to be doing too bad from all those years of sitting on the backbenches, it’s easy to defy the whip when you’ve nothing to lose, a maverick, now it’s a different game sunshine when you’re in the hot seat as leader.
As for the SNP, I’d like to see Corbyn or May acheive half of what the SNP have acheived, with the powers they have at hand.
Add in that, with Brexit looming very few domestic policies will be implimented (cuts aside) as powers are semi-scrutinised as the are repatriated back to Westminster, in what will come to be known as the “Great Power Grab.”
_____
“You seem to have a very simple view of things”
Yeah its people that make things complicated, when they ought not to be.
What are the SNP’s achievements?
Council tax freeze, a tax cut on pollution for people going on foreign holidays, shitting the bed on land reform, named person Stasi program, persecuting young football fans. Being beaten to legalising gay marriage by David Cameron.
This is the party who attempted to abolish corroboration. They are intellectually vapid. However i will be grateful if they get us independence and real politics can begin.
Too many achievements to post, bear in mind the SNP has attained them with one hand tied behind their backs.
https://www.snp.org/record
David Cameron did indeed reach a new level of low, with god knows how many people dead due to cuts, take a look for yourself.
http://calumslist.org
He abolished the English NHS in 2012, and I won’t even begin to mention his foreign policies, which included training and backing Westminster’s close friend’s Saudi Arabia’s pilots to bomb Yemen.
However I acknowledge your desire for independence, and I’m glad we can at least agree on that.
“I’ll explain something to you. The Tories had a majority… This meant that after May announced an election there was guaranteed to be an election.”
Not so. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act May required a 2/3 majority of the House of Commons (434 votes) to call a General Election. Labour and the SNP acting together could have blocked it.
I think that would have been a serious mistake, however. Labour would never have heard the end of it if they had. They would have been accused of being afraid to face the electors.
It’s 7pm and the BBC have this on a ‘Breaking’ banner on their main page.
Breakingnews
Former John Lewis boss Andy Street wins West Midlands metro mayor race for the Conservatives
As you see in my post on here at 16.55, the result had just been announced.
So BBC, two hours on, it is NOT breaking news. Just more from their disgusting propaganda machine.
So the Scottish Tories now have a councillor in two Scotland’s most rundown area’s Shettlestoun, and Ferguslie Park.
I can only surmise that, it’s down to unionists voting for them, to stop the SNP, turkeys don’t generally vote for Christmas.
I also assume that loyalists/unionists in Scotland voted for the Tories holding their noses whilst doing so, not because they wanted them to win. But because they know Labour are finished, and the Tories firmly oppose Scottish independence.
Scotland is the definition of surrealism, you have Scots in poor areas voting for a party (Tories) that wants to punish them. Because the other main party (SNP) wants independence, to help them.
You have once political mortal enemies, Labour/Tories, teaming up to thwart the nationalists, the Libdems who’ll jump into bed with anyone who offers a smidgen of power.
Meanwhile half of Scotland people want to take their orders from a foreign government in England hellbent on causing them economic mayhem, in the form of Brexit, and a whole host of slash and burn policies.
Throw in that the media and press are mostly owned and based out of a foreign country, and are determined to keep Scots in ill informed, or they constantly distort the truth.
“Scotland is the definition of surrealism, you have Scots in poor areas voting for a party (Tories) that wants to punish them. Because the other main party (SNP) wants independence, to help them.”
Ferguslie Park twinned with Mississippi.
“half of Scotland people want to take their orders from a foreign government in England”
The other half on the other hand want to take their orders from a conglomeration of foreign governments in Belgium.
Holyrood actually, and by cutting out a needless layer of government known as Westminster, dealing with our EU neighbours will be a pleasure.
I see the English language is losing its importance within the EU, and on EU maps Britain has already been greyed out. A sign of things to come perhaps?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/brexit-english-is-losing-its-importance-in-europe-says-juncker
Once gone*, who will the Nationalists be blaming for not getting news of their own country?
Of course it ain’t gonna happen, period. So much energy wasted.
Republicofscotland
You’re thrashing around more than usual today. Has something upset you by any chance? 🙂
Indeed there is Habb, I had a terrible nightmare last night, in which dithering old prince Phil the Greek, decided to come back out of retirement, and bore us all to death, with his life story, thankfully it was only a bad dream. ?
Sums it up nicely RoS, so I won’t bother. Ta.
Well it looks like Ruth has knocked Scottish Labour into a bowler hat.
reel guid.
Yes the nasty party, have been poleaxed by the even nastier party. ?
Red Tories, Blue Tories, is there any real difference?
Yeah Ros
Non-Blairite Labour folk will have to decide. Do they want to be Red Tories or Red Scots?
Stunning work from BBC. Despite being the largest party the SNP claim victory. Seems you can make it up after all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39806664
GCHQ calling: So what does all this forebode for the Nationalists’ Independence movement?
Are people in Scotland celebrating on the streets? We don’t see it on social media or any other media we cover. All reports will be handsomely rewarded, no second-hand reports please.
We are leaving soon so a party will be had then.
GCHQ: We are not a wishing well and we have no crystal balls, only screens for monitors, so forgive us if we do not delude with you.
Actual real off-line, on-the-ground-Friday-night-reports only please.
Murdo Fraser has tweeted about a piece he’s written about the election results. It’s on some barmy right wing blog called Think Scotland. The title is just brilliant!
“It’s Scotland Vs Sturgeon – and Scotland is winning”
LOL (and I don’t mean LOL in Murdo’s favoured sense of the acronym).
Jeez, if ever there was a man with a big mouth and a small brain, it’s Murdo Fraser, the eight time loser.
Eight Ros ? I thought he’d only been telt to GTF by the voter seven times.
I don’t really do violence anymore, but yons a coupon I could never tire of skelping.
Google time H.
Defo.
Apologies, you are correct Fraser is a seven times reject. ?
https://wingsoverscotland.com/what-the-people-want/#more-93269
Trans. Loyal Orange Lodge H
Re: the first paragraph. I am surprised at you Craig. I would have thought you knew. Next week the BBC is due to announce that the choco ration will be going up from 30grams/week to 25grams/week. 😉
Bert.
As usual the BBC, prevaricate with regards to the SNP’s victory.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/chinese-arithmetic/#more-94397
“How 26% is a great triumph, and 28% an abject defeat, no doubt the current GCHQ shift will explain below.”
That got a laugh.
I often wonder why you let them continue Craig, they really drive peeps away. I got scunnered with it around the time they targeted Mary, to the point of making her ill.
But I suppose it’s a case of ‘keep your friends close, & your enemies closer’, and they’d only return with a new moniker & email each time anyhoo. It’s paid work after all.
How is the £ holding up against the Shekel ?
https://fx-rate.net/GBP/ILS/
You’ll soon get 5 to the pound ! Quids in H
ÉLECTION PRÉSIDENTIELLE 2017 – Les résultats des derniers sondages sur l’élection présidentielle 2017 livrent une tendance assez nette : Emmanuel Macron termine la campagne en position de force contre Marine Le Pen.
http://www.linternaute.com/actualite/politique/1357555-presidentielle-2017-resultat-du-dernier-sondage-2eme-tour-de-l-election-en-direct/
The gap hasn’t closed at all. It’s still more than 20 points (currently 62-38); in fact widened this week.
That in spite of the great efforts made in British media to suggest Le Pen was going to win. I thought something funny was going on, and it seems confirmed that all those recent articles in British media were part of a Brexiter campaign to get Le Pen in, or at least influence British voters’ intentions by making them think that the Brexiters are not isolated in the world, and the EU is in for imminent destruction. But it seems likely now that the campaign will fail. A point to think about in the context of 8th June.
Don’t forget, Habbabkuk has predicted a result of around 70% for M. Macron and about 30% for Mme Le Pen.
For once I hope you’re correct, mind you, you’ve made wild and bizarre predictions in the past, such as the recent Assad one. ?
Well, RoS, I said that “President” Assad would be gone by the end of this year. Last time I looked, it’s May 2017 at present.
Just to please you, I’ll make another prophecy : “President Nicolas Maduro Moros (aka Moron) will also be gone by the end of this year (reminder: it’s May 2017 at the moment) 🙂
Get your Kleenex ready!
On your Syrian prediction, not very likely in view. It would be necessary for Britain, and the US to undertake full scale war against Asad (and Russia). That would be a great folly, it would be as stupid as Brexit. I don’t see much enthusiasm in the US for that, whatever May and her cabal think about a new parliamentary vote. It still hasn’t become clear what happened to the famous 59 Tomahawk strike. Something went seriously wrong, as a strike. Either Trump actually pulled his punches, or the Russians have some secret electronic wizardry which allowed them to turn away the missiles. In neither case is it optimistic for an Iraq mk. II (or is it mk X?). So whatever the feelings of frustration the hair-trigger warmongers in Washington and London may have, I don’t see things changing. The most likely scenario is that May will pass her Commons vote menacing war on Asad, if there is a new gas incident. Such an incident will certainly happen within two weeks; the rebels will be unable to resist. But will GB and US actually go to war, necessary to get rid of Asad? The generals in Washington will be against it, and lots of other factors. Some blowhard military demonstration is more likely, and that will leave Asad in place.
from a comment on Pat Lang:
Ambassador Yakovlenko understands the situation perfectly (http://www.rusemb.org.uk/ambarticles/522):-
“It has to be borne in mind that the British Foreign Secretary recently hypothesized on joining another US action in Syria in response to another chemical incident, which means that an order for it has already been placed.”
Is that because you read it in a reliable French poll?
No, the prediction is entirely mine. I like to do my own thinking – an example others might like to try some time.
Finally Craig, finally you are seeing the light.
I’m pleased you have finally widened up to the fact that this Blog attracts GCHQ Bunker Boy’s, the trio of which have been doing a fine job denigrating both the SNP and Labour – its bad enough listening to BBC bollocks, without turning here to have our Establishment trio spew out the same tripe.
As for anything else, well given UKIP never really made big gains in Scotland, we now are witnessing its demise, regrettably the real bigots, racists and fascist are going back home to Mummy, namely the Conservative Party. And Yet, and yet the media and Bitterite faction within the Labour Parry are demanding Corbyn’s head on a plate. A great shame these Oxbridge educated buffoons are unable to do a comparative analysis between what ‘real Labour’ is achieving compared to its Socialist and social democrat peers on the Continent. Fuck, Holland/Hammon’s socialist neoliberal Parry only got 6% of the vote in the French Presidential election. Alas, Corb yen’s a disaster!
As a Corbyn supporter and ‘ultra-leftist’, if Labour get 33% in the 8 June GE I’ll be chuffed, chuffed because I’ll know that 1 in 3 of the electorate actually cares about society. I don’t see Labour making any gains in Scotland given its leadership is anti-Corbyn and Unionist, however, with a strong SNP showing and hopefully third-party voters recognising only a Labour vote can stop the Tories in most of England and Wales, I’m hopeful May won’t enjoy a larger majority than she has to-day, and will place a punt she’ll have less MPs than she has today after another month of ‘strong & stable’ tripe.
Pressuring the CPS into putting the charges for electoral fraud off until the 12th will take the shine of off whatever gains they make on the 8th of June.
Spot on Chris. 33% versus lies and distortion would be miraculous! 27% seems too good to be true. You can’t stop people caring, no matter how hard they try to make us hateful.
Agreed Chris. Why isn’t the headline today that the Tories’ projected national share of the vote is 10% below what they were allegedly polling yesterday according to YouGove? If the Tories match this 38%, Labour gets back up to 33%, and the Lib Dems and SNP keep the Tories at bay in the West Country and Scotland, a reduced majority or even the loss of her majority is still a real possibility.
The question on the Yougov poll was “If there was a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for?”.
People often don’t vote the same in local and general elections, I would have answered Liberal to that but my first preference yesterday was an Independent. Take the Independents out of the equation and it changes things a lot.
That’s as may be, but I am not seeing how that could possibly account for a 10% deficit on the Tory vote.
Leave the Independents out of the equation and there are 877 seats. SNP got 40% of those as predicted by the poll. Unionist parties got 58.7% the poll predicted 58%.
It seems to be that in a general election Conservatives would take more votes from Labour than in a local election and there are loads of reasons why that could be.
Oh and the Conservative share would actually work out at 28.5%.
BBC charlatans and Cheltenham GCHQ merge to become Shilltownrats.
The food is billion pound budgets and the water supply sewage.
Interesting the yougov poll predicts a 58 to 41 split between unionist and nationalist parties.
The result was 605 seats for unionist parties 450 for nationalist.
That is a 57 to 43 split.
More pretzel logic.
Weirdly, I have been entirely unable to get local election results as a percentage. Only did some light Googling for a few mins, but it should be relatively easy. Lots of results telling me how many seats won\lost, but no percentage. Maybe it’s my poor Googling skills. On the other hand, if Labour did reasonably well as a percentage (say over 30%), this would be interesting news, and thus not to be mentioned by Fake News inc.
And if the Tories are on 37% in Scotland, I’ll personally give all my savings to Tony Blair, as a donation to his peace-keeping activities. Not likely, is it?
In a General Election it wouldn’t surprise me. If there is the 55:45 split that seems to be constant between unionist and nationalist around 35% for Conservatives and 20% between Labour and Liberal is by no means beyond the realms of possibility.
Kuennsberg was at it again today too. Emily Thornberry was in the studio and was having trouble with her iphone. Kuennsberg responded, this is almost word for word, “That means Labour HQ can’t get through to tell you what to say so you’ll have to tell us what you actually think!”
This woman is now a law unto herself. Unprofessional doesn’t even come close!
Did Emily bite back? Should have slapped her in her smug face with her sneering mouth.
@ Sharp Ears
I’m sorry to say Emily didn’t get the chance as Huw Edwards moved things on.
Kuennsberg is getting away with all sorts and as Political Editor for BBC she breaches the rules on impartiality constantly. Even after being exposed for doctoring a report on Corbyn’s position on armed police she continues to behave appallingly.
I’m with you! She deserves a hard slap! She’s a disgrace.
That report still continues to be regularly cited as a reason not to support Corbyn.
@ John
Indeed. A pity that the BBC Trust, in publicly admitting that their Political Editor deliberately put together a doctored and highly misleading news report, failed to discipline her accordingly. It was a very serious breach of its own Charter. Instead the Trust went on, in the same statement, to insist that Kuennsberg was, despite her clear dishonesty, an excellent journalist! Says it all, eh?
Be careful you two, having promised habby the same he went on winging about it for month, he might take offence to having his ball girl slapped for being a bullying b…h.
PS. Cath Smith, Labour front bencher has made noise of Labour supporting a move to change the electoral system to PR. I expect this to be in the manifesto next week in a move to reach out. LK will have to start swearing soon, her old tricks are only serving to cut the Tories glum and glee.
After yesterdays leafleting/canvassing in Norwich south, reaffirming old and new Labour members vote for Clive Lewis, its becoming clear that many of the Greens, they had a solid 8% at the last GE, will be voting for Labour after their loss of all county councillors last Thursday.
It could also be that they are savvy enough to reciprocate a lesser effort in Brighton Pavillon were Caroline Lucas has asked them to stand aside.
But voters are so turned off with the lot of politics, that you could buy a GE vote for two pints.
Probably better if she hadn’t said it but was she so far off the truth? After all, it’s a constant criticism of New Labour (on here and elsewhere) that New Labourites always have to be “on message”, isn’t it?
@ Habb
She is supposed to be a professional Political Editor for a publicly funded broadcaster and she breaches the BBC charter every time she does something like this. That is just not acceptable.
Do not believe YouGov polling. It is skewed. Bit like the BBC are biased. Don’t take part in their polls and they will have less to get wrong.
I’ve never voted! At age 15 I defied my Labour/Conservative parents to become unpaid errand boy for SNP National SecretarySecretary, the late Robert Curran, at the party’s Glasgow offices. I (and my friend Robert) became exiled after a raid on the Johnstone Army Cadets armoury (Robert believed the rifles might be used against nationalist demonstrators). I describe the raid in my memoir RETIRED TERRORIST (no Scottish publisher wanted it, and it was issued by Trafford in the US in 2012).
After police arrested one of our raiding party, Robert counseled our escape and went to New York. I escaped to the US region of Occupied Germany, and later to California – I finally moved to New Zealand 35 years ago after learning my US residence might be challenged. But Robert (who hadn’t been physically present at the raid) escaped to New York; I heard he was eventually able to return to take up a minor role in the SNP in Edinburgh. My arrest, I was told, was still likely if I returned to Scotland; The SNP did not respond to any of my appeals for advice in this regard
I suppose you might say I qualify for the title Charlatan, since I’ve had to represent myself somewhat differently after escaping from Scotland. I qualified for employment with the US Army in Germany, and was able to complete my education and obtain academic posts in the US (and subsequently NZ), as well as have three volumes of memoirs published. However my exclusion from Scotland has been hurtful – and I’ve especially resented not being able to vote there!
Beautifully written and I am glad you completed your education. You must be an excellent author.