The United States is so far doing virtually no trade with Iran anyway. In 2017 total US exports to Iran were just 138 million dollars, and total imports a mere 63 million dollars, figures entirely insignificant to the US economy. By contrast, for the EU as a whole imports and exports to Iran were each a very much more substantial 8 billion dollars in 2017 and projected to rise to over 10 billion dollars in 2018.
There is one very significant US deal in the pipeline, for sale of Boeing aircraft, worth $18 billion dollars. It will now be cancelled.
Which brings us to the crux of the argument. Can America make its will hold? Airbus also has orders from Iran of over US$20 billion, and it is assumed those orders will be stopped too, because Airbus planes contain parts and technology licensed from the US. It is possible, but unlikely, that the US could grant a waiver to Airbus – highly unlikely because Boeing would be furious.
Now even a $20 billion order is probably in itself not quite big enough for Airbus to redevelop aircraft to be built without the US parts or technology (which constitute about 8% of the cost of an airbus). But the loss of a $20 billion order on such capricious grounds is certainly big enough for Airbus to look to future long term R & D to develop aircraft not vulnerable to US content blocking. And if Iran were to dangle the Boeing order towards Airbus too, a $38 billion order is certainly big enough for Airbus to think about what adaptations may be possible on a timescale of years not decades.
Read across from aircraft to many other industries. In seeking to impose unilateral sanctions against the express wishes of its “old” European allies, the USA is betting that it has sufficient global economic power, in alliance with its “new” Israeli and Saudi allies, to force the Europeans to bend to its will. This is plainly a very rash act of global geopolitics. It is perhaps an even more rash economic gamble.
We are yet to see the detail, but by all precedent Trump’s Iran sanctions will also sanction third country companies which trade with Iran, at the least through attacking their transactions through US financial institutions and by sanctioning their US affiliates. But at a time when US share of the world economy and world trade is steadily shrinking, this encouragement to European and Asian companies to firewall and minimise contact with the US is most unlikely to be long term beneficial to the US. In particular, in a period where it is already obvious that the years of the US dollar’s undisputed dominance as the world currency of reference are drawing to a close, the incentive to employ non-US linked means of financial transaction will add to an already highly significant global trend.
In short, if the US fails to prevent Europe and Asia’s burgeoning trade with Iran – and I think they will fail – this moment will be seen by historians as a key marker in US decline as a world power.
I have chosen not to focus on the more startling short term dangers of war in the Middle East, and the folly of encouraging Saudi Arabia and Israel in their promotion of sustained violence against Iranian interests throughout the region, as I have very written extensively on that subject. But the feeling of empowerment Trump will have given to his fellow sociopaths Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman bodes very ill indeed for the world at present.
I shall be most surprised if we do not see increased US/Israeli/Saudi sponsored jihadist attacks in Syria, and in Lebanon following Hezbollah’s new national electoral victory. Hezbollah’s democratic advance has stunned and infuriated the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia but been reported very sparsely in the MSM, as it very much goes against the neo-con narrative. It does not alter the positions of President or Prime Minister, constitutionally allocated by religion, but it does increase Hezbollah’s power in the Lebanese state, and thus Iranian influence.
Iran is a difficult country to predict. I hope they will stick to the agreement and wait to see how Europe is able to adapt, before taking any rash decisions. They face, however, not only the provocation of Trump but the probability of a renewed wave of anti-Shia violence from Pakistan to Lebanon, designed to provoke Iran into reaction. These will be a tense few weeks. I do not think even Netanyahu is crazy enough to launch an early air strike on Iran itself, but I would not willingly bet my life on it.
The problem is, with Russia committed to holding a military balance in the Middle East, all of us are betting our lives on it.
Iranian president Rouhani, said that Trump’s decision to pull out of the deal is illegal, illegitimate and violates international agreements.
Rouhani said that Iran has always complied with the nuclear deal and is going to stay in the accord despite the US pullout.
Rouhani will hold talks with Russia, the EU and China over the next few weeks, and if those talks go well the accord will remain in place despite Trump breaking the USA’s end of the deal.
It will be interesting to see what Trump does if China, Russia and the EU continue with the accord without the US.
Trump is attempting to alienate Iran, but business deals with China, Russia and the EU involving Iran may well see Trump back down.
Other nations must put their relationship with Iran and their economies first, and not pander to US/Saudi/Israeli whims to first destroy Iran’s economy then the nation itself.
Expect a “colour revolution” in Iran and if it is successfull and Iran becomes another US client, a quiet return to trading oil in US $. China is more problematic for the US as it will do as it wants and will continue to promote the yuan as an anternative world currency. China is playing a long game in destabalizing the US petro $ and USians have short memories and don’t read history.
As Craig Murray states, it is all down to the EU now.
Russia is not going to reimpose sanctions upon Iran now just because President Stupid says they must.
China is also not going to reimpose sanctions upon Iran simply because Bomber Bolton bristles his mustache at them.
Those are, I believe, givens.
But the EU is a huge market, and if Iran is locked out of that market then that will be a big blow to their economy.
So all eyes will be on the Europeans, who by past behavior will run scared of Washington’s threats of 2ndary sanctions.
If they continue to bend that knee in the face of those (illegal) diktats then Trump will “win”.
If they refuse to accept those threats from Washington then Trump will lose, and lose “hugely”.
American soft power is already in tatters.
American economic threats will also be in tatters in the EU shows it isn’t scared.
That will only leave the USA’s Mighty Military Machine, and the threat of that being the only thing that America can bring to the table may, in itself, be enough to convince the Europeans to continue to bend to US economic threats.
Well, that, and all the $billions of pain they’ll suffer in an EU-USA trade war over Iran.
Yesterday, a spokesperson for the EU issued a Statement saying USA withdrawal was not legal and the Agreement is a UN Resolution (No. 2213 or something like that). She asked Iran not to react as the EU and the other parties to the Agreement were remaining in it. So, it looks as though a bullet has been dodged, at least for the moment, where the EU are concerned.
Calm down people !
All we’re seeing here is the reshaping of policy following the realisation that Assad is the winner in Syria, and the Russians will not be dissuaded from backing him.
Given that the USA is on the hook to ‘Support’ Israel, and that an Iranian free hand on their border is likely to spin things up to the point where they get out of the control of both the USA and Russia, then it makes sense for the US to try and squeeze Iran ?
Its also likely that given the hit Boeing will potentially take, and European indications of not playing ball, what we’re seeing here is just the opening gambit. It is after all the way that President Trump does business 🙂
Could be. If this idea is correct then I would expect some sort of deal in the near future between Iran and the USA which is in the Trump’s favour.
Winner of Syria? You believe Assad, will rule Syria if ISIS is wholly defeated? Dead wrong. Israel will murder him before that happens.
Jack, I sincerely hope not. It looks as though Syria/Russia has just won the last rebel stronghold with the rebels retreating so it does look now as though Assad is in full control of his Nation again. Let’s wait and see. However, I do appreciate what you are saying because i distinctly remember, a good many years ago now, the assassination of the President of Lebanon after they had assisted Syria. The only assassins could have been Mossad or the CIA. Reeked of it. And it destabilised the Lebanon/Syria accord because Syria got the blame.
It will happen unfortunately, just look at the israeli attacks last night, the israelis are such a threat to the region, and whats dangerous is that no western head of state could condemn and stop this crazied state.
I tend to agree that the potus seems to be sticking to his bellicose strategy – bigwords and threats, followed by a complete reversal – causing the belligerents to reasses.
The hundred year old shitfest in the ME was initiated by the European great gamers (laterly with their US imperialist cousins) . Trump knows it and expects them to sort it out. Likewise with the Israeli and Saudis incapabilty of engaging peacefully with Iran – their bluff has been called. I suggest that with all the longstanding injustice of the Palestinian peoples, that they too may decide that a workable settlement with Israel is preferrable to a impossible reversal of the Israeli state and peoples.
As for the petro dollars demise – it has been long coming. The rise of the Euro has not been halted by the external forces attempts to disrupt the EU political and economic ever closer union (of which i believe brexit to be a part as well as the copy cat alt- right groupings sprouting up). If they had succeeded in removing Merkel they would have possibly won.
Boeing being paid billions by the US govt will never fail and will still put billions in the shareholders pockets.
So yes a disconnection with the failed US/western imperialism model is not unwelcome. I reserve judgement on the Trump administration for history to decide. Much as the Obama terms of office is now revealing how little was achieved of the promises.
Dungroanin, I don’t agree about Trump – he has little or no understanding of international/geopolitics and even less respect for them – He has put his full weight behind Israel going as far as removing all financial aid from the Palestinians. I think he expects, by the use of threats to countries who are the beneficiaries (actually, beneficiaries is not the right word – recipients is) of USA financial investment in their country, that the world will fall into place behind the USA. On this occasion though, I don’t think it will and, just as the trade war with China has backfired on him as have the sanctions he imposed against Russia, so will this. Iran will not do a deal with him, quite sensibly they are developing an alliance with Russia. China and Russia – combined are the two most significant powers in the world – have deepened their own economic and political alliance and the EU are also currently in a trade war with the USA instigated by Trump. He has manouvered himself into a ridiculous position – and on this one – he will definitely not get his way. The man is a dangerous megalomaniac who poses the biggest threat to the world there ever has been. Unfortunately, his unconditional support for Israel in everything, is also going to backfire on him I think. He is and continues to create a Monster in Israel – a country rapidly getting out of control in the region and apparently, firing on Syria without being in a war with them. How are they allowed to do this?
There are just two evil, rouge regimes in the world: Israel and its vassal puppet the US. To go back to Ronald Reagan’s terminology: for the US to see the Evil Empire it just has to look in the mirror.
This is not about Netanyahoo and Iran or a bad deal with Iran BUT really about Iran banning the use of US $ in oil trading as of March 1, 2018. Iran is the worlds third largest exporter of oil and this act of Iran which I understand thoroughly since the US never held up its side of the nuclear agreement with Iran anyway is a threat to the US $ in the short and long run. China is now ramping up the Yuan as a world currency and has opened an oil trading exchange in yuan and I believe other currencies other than US $. Iraq stopped trading oil in US $ in 1988/9 and was invaded by the US in 2001 and Gadaffi was promoting a new gold backed currency for itself and its French speaking African neighbours and France and the US were not amused and Gadaffi was toast (as is Libya still).
An ideal time to invest in canned goods and shotguns.
https://theintercept.com/2018/03/23/heres-john-bolton-promising-regime-change-iran-end-2018/
John Bolton has been addressing a conference of Mojahedin-eKhalq. Mossad’s happy little assassins cult.
Also read this: https://www.truthdig.com/articles/rudy-giuliani-takes-money-from-an-iranian-terrorist-cult/
I am reminded of the bullet we collectively dodged when Gen. Michael Flynn was sacked as NSA.
https://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/free/lobster73/lob73-field-of-fight.pdf#search=%22michael%20flynn%22
“Flynn facts” included; al Qaeda is a false flag front for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and ISIS was infiltrating America via the Mexican border and installing roads signs in Arabic so their people didn’t get lost.
Worth remembering, Flynn wasn’t sacked because he was clearly mentally ill, it was the greed and monumental stupidity that did for him.
Vivian O’Blivion : that’s a very interesting Irish name which I’ve only come across once before. Are you related to the County Kerry O’Lunaighs by any chance?
The case of General Michael Flynn is indeed instructive – although not for the reasons you suggest.
General Flynn pleaded guilty to a charge of lying to the FBI. Internal FBI records suggest that Flynn committed no such act. Why then plead guilty to a crime you did not commit, and why prosecute a person for a crime you know they did not commit?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mystery-of-michael-flynns-guilty-plea-1525640861
President Trump continues to squeeze the deep state – and as the squeeze increases we begin to see the putrid rotting heart of the deep state begin to leak the fluids of decomposition into the public domain.
Flynn was sacked because he couldn’t even claim a nodding acquaintance with the truth.
The best guess as to why he would plead guilty to any charges put to him is the meeting where he, his son and former CIA Director James Wolsey were approached to black op rendition (on a private basis) Turkish cleric Fethullah Galen to a Turkish military prison for $15 m. Woolsey made his excuses and hightailed it to the nearest FBI office to report illegal activities. Flynn stayed silent. The scuttle butt was that while Flynn was willing to do jail time, but his idiot son (remember the pizza-gate, pedophile nonsense) wouldn’t last a week in gen pop.
Oh dear. Trump fighting the deep state lol
Corbyn’s demand that Labour peers abstain on the vote for the Norway model of EFTA membership shows what a blinkered fool he is. No EU member state government is prevented from nationalising what it wants. And no EFTA member state is prevented from nationalising by being in the EEA. A Labour government could still nationalise industries while the UK remains in some type of membership of the single market. The state aid rules of the EU don’t preclude state owned industry and in fact they are designed to prevent multinationals from holding governments to ransom.
For Corbyn to carry on advocating hard brexit means he’s either an ideological maniac who wants to plough on regardless or simply a lazy fool who doesn’t do his homework. I suspect it’s a bit of both. Evidence for it being the latter is that he served as an MP for thirty years and still hadn’t learned that Scotland has a separate legal system.
He obviously has visions of himself as some great historic leader of the international left who deals a blow to capitalism by embarking on a nationalised industry programme. The reality is he’s assisting the Tories in throwing hundreds of thousands needlessly onto the dole queues. Jacob Rees-Mogg’s useful idiot. The left populism that Corbyn represents has no grasp of the complexity and three dimensional chess of the modern interdependent world. If you want to be progressive you have to be clever. Not just have momentum. Momentum isn’t strategy. It’s just Newtonian physics. And not being populist left doesn’t mean your alternative is to be a Blairite.
Then there’s Corbyn’s autocratic disdain of a democratic choice. Namely the one made at the ballot box by the people of Scotland to stay in the European project.
There’s much in your comment I don’t agree with but you’re spot on when you say that ‘ If you want to be progressive you have to be clever. Not just have momentum’. The simple fact is, as you hint, that Jeremy Corbyn is not clever. Not stupid either, just mediocre. And a prisoner of the discredited past.
Mr Bostock
I would suggest that “prisoners of the discredited past” are free market dogmatists, such as your self. The Tell Sid campaign was a while ago now and the realization that privatization is a spivs game has sunk in.
I’m afraid you’ve got hold of the wrong end of the stick, J Arther : by ‘the discredited past’ I had in mind the Wilson and Callaghan governments (1964-1970 and 1974-1979).
Older readers will remember (but would no doubt rather forget) 26% inflation, industrial decline, irresponsible trade unions, incompetent management, ‘workers’ cooperatives’, a spineless foreign policy…..Not for nothing was Britain called ‘the sick man of Europe’ and not for nothing did even such ludicrous apes as ‘Field Marshal’ Idi Amin Dada get away with tweaking the lion’s tail with impunity.
“spineless foreign policy…”
I wonder if that resulted in a period of relative quiet in those foreign lands.
Here’s graph of unemployment from 1880 to the present day:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Unemployment_in_the_United_Kingdom_since_1881.svg
The Thatcher years unemployment level was artficially lowered by throwing people onto the scrapheap by defining them as disabled.
” 26% inflation, ” – this was kicked off by the Barber Boom in Ted Heath’s government, viz
“This budget led to a period known as “The Barber Boom”. The measures in the budget led to high inflation and wage demands from Public Sector workers. He was forced to introduce anti-inflation measures in September 1972, along with a Prices Commission and a Pay Board. The inflation of capital asset values was also followed by the 1973 oil crisis which followed the Yom Kippur War, adding to inflationary pressures in the economy and feeding industrial militancy (already at a high as a result of the struggle over the Industrial Relations Act 1971).”
” industrial decline” – See the destruction of shipbuilding, the steel industry, mining during the Thatcher years.
” and not for nothing did even such ludicrous apes as ‘Field Marshal’ Idi Amin Dada get away with tweaking the lion’s tail with impunity.” – See the Falklands war for a real foreign policy disaster.
etc.
Charles, not a good insight really. I remember those Governments I also remember the Heath and Thatcher conservative governments who were infinitely worse – three day week; record levels of deficit under Thatcher, record levels of house repossessions, record interest rates, record inflation rates – you name it – all there. Wilson and Callaghan ran far better Governments than Heath and Thatcher ever did.
One might argue that ‘The discredited past’ is best used as a description of the Neocon failed experiment. Begun by Thatcher and Reagan, (Those towering intellectuals, Lol) and promulgated by third rate economists.
Sounds like Corbyn is a secret europhobe, and he doesnt even want to cede a little power to the EU at all. Could be Corbyn and the Tories see eye to eye on this one, but he really doesn’t want the pro-EU masses knowning it – hence the dithering on Brexit.
No wonder Ms Black’s pissed at him, he says one thing and does another.
RG – “For Corbyn to carry on advocating hard brexit ….”
Corbyn doesn’t want hard brexit. He wants a customs union similar to the EU customs union.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/25/labour-backs-staying-in-eu-customs-union-keir-starmer-confirms
Obviously anyone in favour of independence for Scotland will want to keep Corbyn out of Downing Street
Reel Guid – I do not agree at all. This Govt are making such a monumental mess of Brexit at the moment with Treason May putting her need to stay in power and keep the DUP on her side to do so before the needs of the British Nation and people – it is going to result in a ‘no deal’ brexit which will be a disaster. I don’t see why Corbyn should get his hands dirty at this stage as it is not his problem is it? he has made a clear and definitive statement about Brexit which should be committed to by the PLP. What Treason May is proposing is an utterly ridiculous proposition – Corbyn is right to stay out of it – as soon as he comments – all the focus will be turned on him by the MSM and away from the mess this Govt are leading us into.
Davids v Goliath
Palestinians take down 2 IDF drones with ‘high-tech weaponry’ rocks and slingshots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjBK7wTeLCU
Conricus tells lies.
He is –
@LTCJonathan
International Spokesman & Head of Social Media of the IDF. @IDFSpokesperson
Busy man. Lots of ‘fronts’ for him to spin.
Sounds like a bit of RT fake news to me- drones (even reconnaissance drones – brought down by……slingshots? And two of them?
Fake news equals any UK right-wing rag. Including the Grumpian.
Seen drones taken down by fireworks and how many plane crashes are caused by birds hitting the engines.?
I seen the drones the are using, they are large heli-drones, that hover about, not big things like the fixed-wing predators, so am guessing a good smack with a rock could knock them out the air, (if the impact of the rock flips it, or smashes a rotor it may not be able to right itself)
also imagine there is more than a few Palestinians that are crack shots with a sling seeing that is their weapon of choice (or the only thing available to them)
I’ve seen a film of a drone being brought down by a spear (no it wasn’t in the ME, so there was no point in faking it).
Jeez, there has been some twitchy modding going on the Grauniad Comment is Censored on this article today. Take a look here:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/europe-trump-wreck-iran-nuclear-deal-cancel-visit-sanctions#comment-115604311
I got modded several times just for saying words to the effect that Bibi Netanyahoo looked rather welcome and at home in Moscow at the Victory Day celebrations today by referring to another Grauniad article here:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2018/may/09/russia-rolls-out-its-military-hardware-for-victory-day-in-pictures
My comment suggesting the US/Isreal – Russia/Syria/Iran alignment might not be the way this particular cookie crumbles, disappeared before the pixels had materialised on the screen.
Now I wonder why that would be??????
Perhaps because even the most tolerant mod has to draw the line somewhere when it comes to consoiract theories?
Hi Craig, off subject. I wonder if you have any thoughts on this
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/guardian-distances-itself-from-anti-press-data-protection-bill-amendments-which-would-exclude-title-from-paying-punitive-legal-costs/
We do want newspapers dont we ,even if we dont agree with them. Imagine if the only paper left was The Guardian ?
Looks like maybe I was a little ahead of the curve as later in the afternoon the Grauniad scribblers produced this!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/09/russia-shows-off-new-missiles-and-jets-in-victory-day-parade-red-square
That photo!
I have no idea, why most of the world, are in thrall, to a very small number of exceedingly rich and powerful people. They are all incredibly evil, and even the countries of Europe, are dominated and controlled by them.
How did this happen? Even when I was 5 years old, I stood up to bullies in the school playground and fought back. I may have ended up in a bloody mess on the school ground concrete, but I did not let them control me.
wtf is wrong with the rest of you?
Why are nearly all of us controlled by the bullies?
I do not want my Grandchildren heading for the Torture Camp, because they did not comply, and worship these evil bastards.
Craig Murray, worked wonders, and bet his life on trying to prevent this.
Are we really down to so few people, trying to prevent our entire planet being controlled by Evil?
“Gina Haspel and the Normalising of Torture”
https://off-guardian.org/2018/05/08/gina-haspel-and-the-normalising-of-torture/
Tony
I wish our education system from secondary level upwards had in its curriculum, a study of how the US came to be what it is today – warts and all.
Every citizen needs to know that the US administration is just a PR exercise in conning the masses. That isn’t a just a conspiracy theory:
In 1928, a certain obnoxious braggart by the name of Edward Bernays “invented” Public Relations and this, in his own words, was what he proposed:
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society… It is the intelligent minorities which need to make use of propaganda continuously and systematically.”
This patronising b*****d sold public relations techniques to US governments and ultimately, we ended up with “Free Market” evil idiocy that we have now.
Ever since I read what Bernays proposed, the sheer arrogance and unbelievable callousness and manipulative psychopathy of his message has been etched in my memory.
“and ultimately, we ended up with “Free Market” evil idiocy that we have now.”
which, of course, has very little, if anything, to do with an actual free market.
“How did this happen? Even when I was 5 years old, I stood up to bullies in the school playground and fought back. I may have ended up in a bloody mess on the school ground concrete, but I did not let them control me.”
AFAICS it is because then, the advice from parents to children was “sort it out yourself”. For the last few decades it’s been “don’t do anything, tell us/a teacher/ the authorities and we/they will sort it out.”
A 5 year old rarely has concerns for survival. Sadly adults do and endure zero hour contracts a slashing of employee rights to remain “competitive and flexible” to keep fed and a roof over their heads
” I hope they will stick to the agreement and wait to see how Europe is able to adapt, before taking any rash decisions.”
To be honest, I don’t think it really matters. Iran is and has always been a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and always allowed the IAEA full inspection of their facilities to demonstrate that they were only enriching uranium to reactor grade levels. If Iran decided to withdraw from the agreement and return to enriching uranium to reactor grade levels under full inspection of the IAEA, I really can’t get worked up about it.
Iran has repeatedly said it never had a nuclear weapons program and I think Israel has inadvertently confirmed that. Israel has the most to risk from a nuclear armed Iran – if they really believed there was an actual risk of Iran developing a nuclear weapon then they would be clinging to the agreement for dear life.
The agreement was always about finding a face-saving way for the Western powers to back out of their false accusations of a non-existent Iran nuclear weapons program. Israel knew this, which is why they place no value whatsoever on the deal collapsing.
In some ways I think a nuclear armed Iran would be quite beneficial to the Middle East, it would certainly persuade the mischief makers of the region – US, Israel and Saudi Arabia – to mind their Ps and Qs
“to mind their Ps and Qs”.
Agreed.
In fact every country should have nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, if they so wish.
Seems to be a great deterrent to prevent bullying.
Further more, Trump is a “Deal Breaker”. He even wrote a book to that effect.
Yes. MAD though crap is a way of ensuring peace or at least a stalemate
Hagar, I have quite the opposite opinion – no country should have nuclear weapons – the recent ease with which we nearly ended up in WW111 but thanks to Putin, was side-stepped, leads me to believe having nuclear weapons is no deterrant at all – all you need are two totalitarian, evil, megalomaniacs – i.e. Trump and Bibi – and hey presto – before you can blink – obliteration – on something as petty as they have lost in Syria.
Glad to see Trump acknowledged here as a sociopath. If it were not for the purity brigade, who just could not bring themselves to support his opponent, we would not be dealing with Trump as president. It was H. Clinton, we should recall, who helped bring about this peace deal with Iran in the first place.
Anyone who is a fan of Hillary Clinton, probably likes this too
“Hillary Clinton on Gaddafi: We came, we saw, he died”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fgcd1ghag5Y
Way to go, Tony – wheel out a very tired right-wing “gotcha”. The fascists would be proud of you.
Seriously though, does one have to be a “fan” of a politician to refer her – and her party – to the one alternative which is vastly worse?
How unsurprising to see your continued public failure to grasp reality.
Trump has consensual sex with a female porn star – big scandal.
Hillary Clinton rapes an entire country – no one is interested.
https://www.mondialisation.ca/clinton-disaster-fundraising-in-haiti-predatory-humanitarianism/5526496
People are so keen to identify racists and bigots and punish them accordingly. Steal money from one of the poorest black nations on earth that is trying to cope with physical devastation and 250,000 dead and no one cares.
What kind of society produces people who turn a blind eye to such grotesque criminality whilst simultaneously obsessively virtue signal over some feigned moral outrage over a matter that is purely private? It must be some kind of societal wide mental illness.
How unsurprising to find you being rather less than frank.
If you really are trying to give the impression that the only thing wrong Trump has done is have an adulterous affair with a porn star, you’re either attempting to deceive, or astonishingly ignorant.
In either case, it is not worth discussing anything with such a person.
Not to put too fine a point on it, anyone who is a fan of Hilary Clinton needs their head looking…
All the last POTUS election confirmed was that it’s overdue the USA had internationally supervised elections with the non american (ie civilised0 world choosing the candidates for them. No more dangerous megalomaniacs and narcissists chosen by big money and evil lobby groups.
Oh dear a “but Hillary” comment over a year into Trump’s terrible presidency
Indeed the orange man child is bordering on psychosis. However so is Killary Clinton, Iran would be a pile of burning rubble by now, if she was in the hot seat, as would NK.
She’d be standing in downtown Tehran, spouting out her usual mantra, we came, we saw, he died over the ayatollah or Rouhani, take your pick.
But Hillary. ..ffs deal with reality not this bizarre what if
Glen
I am not sure that the choice offered between Trump and Clinton was one that anyone who is barely of the left has clear choices. This was a no win situation whoever was elected as POTUS. It also shows that these sort of beauty contest style elections have no relationship whatsoever to democracy.
German businesses should immediately halt their operations in Iran following President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Irannuclear deal, the US ambassador to Germany said on Tuesday.
“As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy.
“German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately,” tweeted newly-appointed Richard Grenell.
https://www.thelocal.de/20180509/us-tells-german-businesses-to-stop-trade-in-iran-immediately The Germans are reputed to be good at following orders, will they follow this one?
Harry Law,
It is entirely possible, that The Germans, will not cripple their own economy, and will continue to receive most of their energy resources from Russia and Iran.
It is also entirely possible, that President Trump has gone over to the other side, and has been on the other side for nearly the last 17 years, when he saw what happenned on day one at Ground Zero, and was interviewed about it….
Maybe he thought, well how do I change this, and get justice for Americans.
How do I protect my country the USA?
I sense, he wants a very strong reaction from European Countries, whilst seemingly threatening them.
He actually wants Germany to either ignore the USA, or tell them to go to hell, and carry on trading with their natural partners to the East.
It simply cannot be too hard, for all the countries in Europe (including the UK) to tell President Trump (and the USA) to go to hell.
I could of course be completely wrong. President Trump might indeed be everything he appears to be, but so far he has only launched about 170 missiles, nearly all of which missed.
One could put that down to incompetence, or serious pre-planning and agreement with the Russians, so The USA doesn’t immediately get nuked. The Russians must have itchy fingers by now. They have been seriously insulted, numerous times for over 4 years. Gavin Williamson, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson tried very hard, but the Russians just laughed. They too have seen Monty Python. It’s the Americans who didn’t get it.
Thank God, we’ve not got Dick Cheney working for The British Government, but even he shot his mate in the face on a duck shoot.
These people are not that bright.
Tony
This is so simple that it is too complicated for most people to understand.
President Trump has separated Germany from the EU, and is now able to tell Germany to stop. If they do not stop then he can sanction Germany without needing to further victimize the EU vassal states of Germany. The Germans are about to find out that stripping out the means of production from its vassals is not the guaranteed winning lottery ticket that they thought.
One way or another German mercantilism will be constrained. Heads the US wins and tails the Germans lose.
Bizarre.
Loony.
The Risk Assessment they did before clearing you fit for care in the community is in need of urgently reviewing.
It is all much easier for Trump then he could ever have imagined.
Here is a man who does what he says he will do – and provides all the evidence that this is the case from tax reform through to withdrawing the US from the Climate Change Agreement through to withdrawing from the Iran Agreement through to rolling up the traitors within the deep state.
Still you are unable to grasp that when Trump said he was going after China and Germany he meant that he was going after China and Germany. The days of super mercantilism are drawing to a close and Trump will lift the iron heel of oppression from the throats of the Greeks.
Meanwhile the truly deranged British can continue whining about their declining railway system without ever understanding that the cause of this problem is Germany.
“The days of super mercantilism are drawing to a close and Trump will lift the iron heel of oppression from the throats of the Greeks.”
America are the Über merchants. You’re so funny Loony.
Loony, did you just jump a shark?
You really are loony. Nevertheless, Germany and the EU will of course follow orders, as they always do. Our so-called leaders are incapable of formulating and executing a foreign policy independent of the USA, even when POTUS is a certified psychopath. I live in Germany. After Japan, this is the second most socially reengineered country, the USA and Israel are taboos. And the yanks are still here with their nukes, which would limit Germany’s drive for an independent foreign policy, if she had any, which she does not. Putting our hope in Europe is futile with the current crop of Cold War leftover political leadership.
Maybe Germany is more stubborn than you think, They have yet to settle the invoice prepared and delivered by Trump for defense protection provided by the US.
It is interesting that you think that a US President who wants to stop American citizens subsidizing Germany qualifies him as a “certified psychopath” I am sure I am not alone in observing that you fail to provide any evidence of the certification.
Loony, I think the Germans are far far more pragmatic than that. They will continue trading with Iran and Russia.
If Berlin has any self respect this arrogant twat would be called into the Chancellors office for a dressing down.
They are America’s vassal.
Tangentially connected is this piece on OffGuardian about Gina Haspel – a reminder of how desperately amoral is the western ME policy:
“Gina Haspel & the Normalising of Torture”
https://off-guardian.org/2018/05/08/gina-haspel-and-the-normalising-of-torture/
Maxwell,
I also rather like Caitin Johnstone. I’ve always had a thing for Aussies. They just say what they think.
“Why You Should Celebrate Loudly And Unapologetically When John McCain Dies”
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49384.htm
It’s going to rain a bit tonight. The bluebells should look beautiful in the sunshine in the woods tomorrow.
Tony
Sorry, I spelt her name wrong. It is Caitlin Johnstone (or something close) I came across her about a year ago, and thought My God, no one can write like that, and get away with it. This is where she posts her stuff, but it gets copied all over the place.
https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone
The Syrian Girl is a real person too. I’ve been reading her for very much longer. I think she now lives in Australia too, though the mainstream Media have only recently found her, together with this OAP, who sounds like he comes from East London (ex IT Project Manager)
They were both accused of being Russian bots.
No one could possibly accuse Caity of being a Russian bot, unless like some on here, they have had a full frontal lobotomy, rather than electro-convulsive therapy, in which case they might occasionally make some sense.
https://twitter.com/Partisangirl
Tony
It’s quite chilling to see the Nuremberg defence being employed and accepted so casually in Congress. They use make more of an effort to disguise their barbarity.
good overview craig.. thanks!
will israel commit to something stupid? hard to know.. they have been neddling iran fairly openly since around the time of the april 14th missle attacks.. they fired a few missiles into damascus yesterday… will they offer some false flag to pull in the usa? anything is possible.. israel needs the usa as they are unable to go alone with regard to iran.. same deal saudi arabia…
now all along israel/saudi arabia/ uae and etc have been supporting the ‘moderate headchoppers’ in syria… usa and europe has kinda gone along with this too – its ongoing support for the white helmets is just the propaganda wing of it.. however they are losing in syria.. russia, syria and iran have the upper hand.. things haven’t worked out as planned for israel or saudi arabia here..
fact is – syria is ground zero in the world clash between the usa which wants to view itself as leader in a unipolar world and russia/china that would like to view the world as a multipolar one… i suspect syria will continue to take up the focus of the world as it is really a proxy war for the big players… russia seems intent to do everything it can to prevent ww3 from happening.. on the other hand – israel seems intent on bringing it on.. i really have a hard time appreciating the approach israel continues to take here.. it would be far better to make peace with your neighbours then to think you can lord it over them… the day or reckoning is fast approaching for both israel and the usa if they continue on in the path they are pushing here..
Let me try to explain a bit what the devil Bibi is up to… Bibi is working with neo-con else you’re dead Trump. The Great Satan will impose heavy sanctions on Iran to (a) weaken it’s position in the region and (2) cause an already agitated Iranian public to rise-up thus creating a pretext for regime change – helped by the CIA and MI6 provocateurs already in place.
Bibi has met Putin to (a) request S300 is not supplied to Assad (b) Reaffirm and continue Israel right to strike Iran’s military resources in Syria while Moscow looks in another direction.
If Iran gets combative, destructive and threatening Bibi will ask Trump to launch the final solution and strike Iran directly after some massive propaganda and MSM nonsense/lies that Iran is a nuclear/chemical/biological threat to man-kind/autonomous players in the region.
Mark you have a point there. However, if Iran pulls out of NPT and stops the application of the IMF nostrums, we could see a whole new ball game. As in the case of DPRK. Let’s face it at this juncture of time there is no room left for diplomacy and rules based international relations, it is all about might is right and kinetic exchanges.
Iran and Russia are a bit brighter than that Mark. Russia doesn’t want catastrophe and confusion on its southern borders, whatever agreement Putin is supposed to have made with Netanyahu. The effect will be calming.
I can think of several ways of preventing Israel from going over the top. The most obvious is simply to advise Iran to keep calm. There are not many Iranian troops in Syria now – they are no longer needed. Israel bombing empty bases will be wasted effort. The second technique would be to put a few Russians into each base. Russian troops are already in Damascus, protecting Asad’s palace, for three months now. That’s why Israel’s claim to decapitate Asad is sheer bombast. In any case he has his bunker.
mark golding,
I don’t necessarily agree with all your analyses, because you have not made it clear whether or not Putin (for example) agreed with request (a), nor even request (b)
Iran is highly unlikely to get “combative, destructive and threatening” to anyone.
Whilst Bibi may well “ask Trump to launch the final solution and strike Iran directly after some massive propaganda and MSM nonsense/lies that Iran is a nuclear/chemical/biological threat to man-kind/autonomous players in the region.”
(a) he might not agree, and (b) if he does no one sensible is going to believe him..
Otherwise you got that more or less spot on.
Hope you are well.
Love & Peace,
Tony
Why would Iranians rise up against their govt?
Sanctions tend to strengthen power
Putin was informed by Netanyahu of this attack and I had a signal from British assets in Syria that Israel’s planes from bases Ramat David in the north and the Uvda air base near Eila will fly along the Lebanese border and 180 down through the Beqaa Valley where they fire their guided missiles.
I say to Bouthaina Shaaban as senior advisor to President Assad you must negotiate S300 positions in Lebanon to target Israel’s illegal paths through Lebanon’s border and stop vacillating about escalation. Downing Israel’s F16’s must slow further assaults planned including conventional missile attacks and most worryingly nuclear tipped shelling into Syrian army positions from the Golan Heights.
All this while Vladimir Putin pontificates in the Victory Day parade…
With another president you might think this move is a gambit to improve/change the deal. But with Trump it is very hard to tell. It’s not that WE don’t know what he’s doing so much as HE doesn’t know what he’s doing. He terrifies me..
Gary, it’s even more scary when you factor in Pompeo and Bolton.
Likely OT but rapidly growing petition re the propoganda construct the white helmets is here https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/218345
An excellent article, Craig, and it’s good to be in agreement with you again on things.
I think you overstate the chances of Europe stepping out of line with regards to US policy. I can’t think of an example of them doing so before, not on something as critical as this anyway.
I also think you overstate the weakness of the US dollar in global trade etc. There’s a definite trend there away from the dollar but the pace is glacial. I’ve been hearing people talk about threats to the dollar now for 30 years.
I think the US will be damaged more in political terms than anything else. It’s quite staggering to see a major power renege on a deal of this importance. The conclusion we are forced to is that the US is no longer treaty worthy.
The big picture here, as I see it, in terms of what explains the instability of the last few years and the unending wars we seem to involve ourselves in, can be understood by looking at the failings and fundamentals of the US/British/Israeli economic structures, especially their collapsed financial sectors.
It’s desperately sad and bodes for a dark future, but I think these skirmishes are the new economy for the US and its closely connected cohorts. It’s tempting to call it disaster capitalism but there’s nothing capitalistic about it — US taxpayers are footing the bill and the profits generated by arms sales and what little reconstruction they partake in go straight to private companies.
If we thought war was morally reprehensible as a means to an end, consider what war as an end in itself amounts to; sowing seeds of destruction and misery purely for profit. It’s as if we woke up in one of the darker chapters of 1984.
See Andrew Feinstein’s horrifying documentary “The Shadoow World”, about the global arms trade. It underlines your point.
good post hatuey.. i agree with you in your big picture observations and hypothesis..
Are the Iranians totally bonkers? Offering to buy Boeing’s already?.
Trying to buy US aircraft, with inbuilt so-called ‘anti-hijack’ ground-based takeover potential (perhaps shared with Iran, but ultimately totally controlled by Boeing (MH 307 anybody?)).
Total stuff an nonsense. Buy Russian (or Chinese) equivalents. OK, so perhaps on the balance sheet it ‘don’t make sense’.
But for National Security reasons, a nation does not, if they have at least two or three brain cells working in conjunction,buy (or attempt to buy) aircraft from an avowed enemy, who has an inbuilt control over such aircraft?
Tell the States, and Boeing, they can stick their aircraft deals ‘where the sun don;t shine’)
And heavyweight, Russia can’equate the balance’ by signing a pact with Iran, or by ‘under-the-counter transfer of substantial Nuke capability to Iran. Either which way, IF a major US/cronies v Syria/Russia, then Israhl becomes a cinder: not, really what the Banksters want, but sure as hell what they will get.
I suspect this is what will occur, due to our esteemed (‘Honourable’) leaders’ mindless following of their ‘Puppet-Master’s’ orders.
Israelis, and their apologists and supporters in the West, should wake the f*ck up. Do you REALLY want to tempt fate, tempt Armageddon?
I believe it is coming, but ‘que sera’, ve shall see.
And it can never be said, those of us in ‘Democracies’, albeit half-wit mind-controlled morons (football, anyone? Soaps? Britain’s got talent?) are not (by reason of lack of empathy, and moronic ‘group think) responsible for the ‘World Holocaust’ I suspect, indeed, expect (some who know me know I have a pretty good record of ‘forettelings’ .
Let those who have ears to hear, take note.
Every time I hear that man’s voice I just wonder how the blazes he got to where he is!
The ‘lunatic state’ is at it again.
See RT.com.
American hubris indeed:
https://www.rt.com/news/426294-us-ambassador-grenell-germany/
And the sh*thole Saudi Arabia feels emboldened:
https://www.rt.com/news/426305-saudi-iran-nuclear-tension/
Dear Iran,
I personally would understand if you were to develop nukes post-haste.
Regards,
bj
KSA doesn’t have to build any nukes: it has them already, in Pakistan. They financed them, the bombs are stocked there for plausible deniability. They can be moved in a jiffy. Sunni “brother” states bordering the same Shia enemy.
The IRNA agency hasn’t got anything at the moment on tonight’s events in the Golan, although they are saying over 120 Daesh soldiers were killed by the Syrian army in southern Damascus in the last 18 days. Note that whereas the Guardian says Iran “fires 20 rockets”, using those inverted commas, even the New York Times adds a tag, saying “Iran Fires Rockets into Golan Heights from Syria, Iｓ?aelis Say”. Imagine being more on-hasbara than the NYT! Take a bow, Katharine Viner! I wonder what the response to news from the Golan by the most tooled-up proxy state in North America will be.
And Jared Kushner and his wife Ivanka née Trump are going to occupied al-Quds to cheerlead the opening of the US embassy in that city.
Syria in Battle with Israel, in Golan Hights..
After meeting Putin today, Netanyahu says that Russia will probably let the IDF do whatever they want in Syria. In the words of Reuters, that translates to “Russia is unlikely to try to limit I__ael’s military actions in Syria“. Others might phrase it as “Russia obeyed our orders”, or “Putin is my bitch”. There is a theory that Putin has switched from Iran to Saudi but I am very sceptical of that.
And can’t Putin talk for himself? Where is the famed Russian propaganda machine?
BrianFujisan, I assume this is current news? Al I can find is “Iran ‘fires 20 rockets’ at Israel army in occupied Golan Heights” and its in The Guardian and they make most of it up, and 20 rockets is nowt. I’ve done more than that on bonfire night. It didn’t cause any damage
, yet once one of the rockets landed back -in my house..just inside the back door.
If I was a Syrian, i would fight to get my land back too, and I would tell The Eastern Europeans and Russians to Fck Off Back to where they came from.
They are even worse than us British.
There is a great song about this, and a movie scene, from the American Film Deliverance.
“Get off My Land” A British band, I know do it really well.
I don’t want to invade Scotland either.
Why would anyone?
Just flog us your fish and your oil, and you can have lots of nice English pounds in return.
You guys cracked me up, when you wanted your Scottish Independence, but wanted to stay in the EU, and keep The English Pound
What difference would that make?
Tony
https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-military-fires-missiles-into-occupied-golan-heights-for-first-time-in-decades/
It is indeed a worrying development and maybe even a trap for the SG as well as for Iran. I have always been apprehensive about Russian lack of support for Syria when it comes to these Israeli attacks.
SA,
“A military source in Damascus told Al-Masdar News that the Syrian military fired the missiles towards an Israeli base in the occupied Golan Heights; however, he could not confirm if any of the missiles struck their intended targets.”
That to me sounds like typical Guardian/BBC/Telegraph Newspeak copy and pasted direct from the CIA fronted Wolrdwide Newdesk.
It is entirely possible that nothing of any consequence has happened.
They are like this. They make it up as they go along, trying to provoke a real response.
Best ignored.
Tony
Tony
Haaretz are reporting that Israeli air force have already responded by attacking Iranian positions in Syria and warned the Syrians not to shoot down Israeli weapons or they will target those Syrian defensive positions. False flag any one?
Tony
This is not generated by the MSM. Al Nasdaq is pro SG and this is also reported in RT
https://www.rt.com/news/426310-israel-syria-strike-radar/
The worrying thing here is the question as to what game Putin is playing here. He is hosting Netanyahu who is at the same time bombing Damascus and Russia has no intention of defending Syria against Israel.
I am beginning to loose faith in Putin as an honest broker.
Almasdar, autocorrected by the monetarist Apple
Good News for Craig Murray
Born 17 October 1958 (age 59)
West Runton, Norfolk, England
https://www.senior-railcard.co.uk/
“Check how much you can save
With a Senior Railcard you can get 1/3 off rail fares to travel across Britain. Use our journey calculation and check how much you can save.”
Its already saved my wife over £100 in Second Class.
She normaly travels first class with me.
(I drive) It’s really nice now. All the faults lights have cleared.
Smooth as a limo (or a train going to Amsterdam from Schipol)
Going a bit deaf, has helped keep the road noise down. The aircon still works a bit if we shut the windows.
Tony
The demons are playing their usual game. They love war.
Israeli missiles hit Syrian radar, air defense sites – state media
https://www.rt.com/news/426310-israel-syria-strike-radar/
On the Iran deal, I agree with Trump. The Iran deal was, by any measure, atrocious. Pallets of cash, middle of the night, all going to dubious people with no oversight. Apparently Iran didn’t even sign it. And you know who needs cash? Terrorists find it quite handy, I’d presume, given their bank accounts are subject to laws. It was at best an utterly stupid deal. At worst, it was Barry’s pension. And btw, nobody asked John Kerry to be the US diplomat in Tehran. Lord knows what he was doing.
Sanctions, well meh. They tend to hurt the very people that your average despot doesn’t give a fuck about – their own citizens. The rich do ok, as they always do. So not entirely convinced on that one. And Nutty Yahoo is almost out the door, corruption scandal gonna get him.