The Salzburg debacle was a low point of British diplomacy, because neither Number 10 nor the Brexit ministers paid any attention to the information being provided by Britain’s Embassies, which was that there is fizzing resentment in major capitals at what is viewed as Theresa May’s rank bad faith.
Good faith is an intangible, but it is the most important asset you can have in diplomatic negotiations, and building up trust is the most important skill in international relations. The EU remains genuinely concerned for the future of Ireland, which unlike the UK is a continuing member.
In December, after hard talks, the UK signed up to the Joint Report as the basis for negotiation. This contained the famous “backstop” on North/South Ireland relations. It is worth looking on what the text of the “backstop” actually says.
49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to
its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible
with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom’s intention is to achieve
these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible,
the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique
circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United
Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the
Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island
economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
What May is now saying is that it is impossible for Northern Ireland to maintain alignment with the rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union, when as per her Chequers plan the rest of the UK will not maintain that alignment. This would involve a border in the Irish Sea which, she repeatedly declaims, “no British government could accept”.
The problem is, she has already accepted it. There is no possible meaning of last December’s backstop agreement which does not involve profoundly different customs and regulatory rules for Northern Ireland, unless the UK remains part of the single market, which May has rejected. To state now that such difference for Northern Ireland is unacceptable for reasons of unionist fundamentalism, is too late. You signed up to it last December.
The humiliation of Salzburg occurred because there was never chance of any sympathy from EU member states for an attempt to dishonour the agreement of nine months ago. There is no way out of that conundrum. The government has belatedly remembered the existence of the FCO as a potential tool in international relations, and ambassadors in our Embassies in EU countries are currently staring in bafflement at dense and complex instructions urging them to convince their hosts that black is white.
I have refrained from comment on the Brexit negotiations, but among the rafts of mainstream media coverage, I have not seen this issue of May’s bad faith given the prominence it deserves. Whatever your stance on Brexit, conducting negotiations in this manner – the cliche of perfidious is in fact the best description – is a ludicrously ineffective way to behave. On the most profound political, economic and social transformation the UK has embarked on in decades, the Tory government is an utter shambles.
I personally changed my rose-tinted view of the EU after seeing its leaders line-up to applaud the Francoist paramilitary forces for clubbing grandmothers over the head for having the temerity to try to vote in Catalonia. My interest in Third Pillar cooperation ended there. But leaving the customs union appears to me a ridiculous act of self harm.
Excellent analysis – that the issue of the Irish border had remained a relatively non-issue in the UK is just part and parcel of how appallingly we have been served by the MSM. We’re leaving the EU, so there had to be a harder border somwhere FFS. This problem was predicted and covered widely elsewhere (which is a good time to recommend that everyone checks out Naked Capitalism as a source for excellent analysis – particularly their Links and 2pm Water Cooler daily digests).
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
None of which is to say that leaving the EU is not a thoroughly good idea – come GFC2 the benefits will almost certainly outweight the costs. If Brexit results in the break-up the the UK in the meantime, then that’s just gravy.
Where is May ion the US imposition of unilateral sanctions on Iran, likely a naval blockade?
No-one will impose a “naval blockade” of Iran even if Labour did try in 1951 when Mossadeq wanted to audit Anglo-Persian Oil’s books………Iran is a nation of 80 million and probably the most educated in the region. It would blow up the world energy system if anyone tried……Trump is doing enough to bring down the house of cards without blowing up the global oil market
Working in the energy industry i fully agree. Iranian oil represents between 7 and 10 % of available Oil exports (different sources), Removing this oil from an already tightening market would lead to a price spike that will cause severe problems for the global economy , particularly if it coincides with a messy Brexit. Trump and more importantly his neocon advisers may just be that stupid.
India and China are Iran’s main customers along with Japan and South Korea, The Chinese and Indians would not take too kindly to the US navy stopping their oil supplies. The main risk to supplying Iranian oil (assuming no military conflict) is payment in the US dollar system. I believe that the Chinese and Indians are looking at ways of getting round this problem
The USA is happy to see higher oil prices, they can offset this with increased shale production, which is the idea anyway. You didn’t really think trump chucked in the towel on the Iran deal because its dangerous ? He did it to deliberately drive up oil.
Sorry I diisagree, USA Is still an oil importer and a significant one, the shale gale has merely reduced the scale of the imports. Lower prices are better for more Americans including those in republican states outside Texas and North Dakota. I think that Trump and his neocon advisers have a dangerous obsession with Iran which is being stoked by Israel
Shale oil is only economic with ZIRP. The fact that none of the shale oil producers make money is because they are “Internet Bubbles” with huge Bond Issues funding a non-viable business which will never be cash-positive.
During the Napoleonic wars in 1800 The Corn Laws made all sorts of non-viable farms viable until Robert Peel had to pull the plug in 1846 and import grain from USA for fear of riots in Northern industrial cities over bread prices
Because of Iran’s unusual geographical position a naval blockade would be very hard, or even impossible to impose – even for the very large US navy. The tiny remnant UK navy would be wise not even to try.
Most of Iran’s sea coast is inside the Persian Gulf – which is called that for a good reason. The Strait of Hormuz is about 50 km wide at its narrowest point, making it an ideal shooting gallery for anyone possessing fast modern anti-ship missiles. None of the Persian Gulf is at all safe for hostile naval vessels, and in the event of war Iran could easily prevent all movement of oil tankers and the like.
Meanwhile Iran’s oceanic coast is of great strategic interest to China, India, Russia and other nations that wish to go on trading with Iran. It would be quite dangerous to try blockading it.
This, though, is the BACKSTOP. Chequers is NOT a backstop, it should prevent the usage of a backstop by putting into place arrangements which prevent it’s use.
The aim to prevent a ‘hard border’ will, I think start to hinge on the DEFINITION of a ‘hard’ Vs ‘soft’ border. Being in cahoots with the DUP is not helping matters. Firstly she is utterly dependent upon them to get anything though parliament, secondly she is PERCEIVED as being in thrall to them by the nationalist side. And it IS difficult to see how she isn’t in thrall to them, even as a disinterested party.
Their idea of using technology to ensure that differences in taxation etc are dealt with by the end user and not having to be physicaly checked at the border are being seen as a hard border by SDLP and Sinn Fein, DUP meanwhile would happily build a wall a la Trump.
This negotiation is that much harder now that NONE of those in Stormont (well, you know what I mean) have any personal connection to the Agreement. After ‘the Chuckle Brothers’ went, so did Stormont AND so did any chance of negotiating a soft border with any good will. The current crop of leaders didn’t personally invest in the agreement and sell it to their followers and aren’t therefore worried about it’s continuance.
I heard that they have been offered to kick things down the road and fudge much of it. At this point in time that actually looks like the best proposition.
This is a worst case scenario, weak Tory government doing the negotiating, lead by someone who doesn’t think she’s doing the right thing anyway, it’s split over the deal and depends on the DUP which, like it’s rivals has no real care for the Agreement and isn’t even sitting in Stormont as none can agree the way forward there either.
Meanwhile ‘The Opposition’ is split too on this, is split anyway due to the right wing PLP having spent the entire summer trying to divest itself of any support it might’ve had by decrying their leader, falsely, as anti-Semitic.
The only thing wrong with politics is politicians…
You cannot move livestock from North to South without physical checks. So there has to be a physical border.
Whilst I agree it is normally good practice to attempt to maintain cordial relations, when attempting to negotiate a satisfactory outcome, for both parties, sometimes the only way forward is to walk away with no agreement, and just leave them to it. I could of course have used much stronger words, but I think Theresa May, in this one instance was perfectly correct by telling The EU to Fck Off. In fact its about the only decent thing she’s ever done, apart from not sending Gary McKinnon to Guantanamo Bay for torture, cos he logged on to a US Military server looking for evidence of UFO’s when they hadn’t bothered set a password. Instead of wanting to torture him, they should have given him a job, tightening up their security. He could have done it perfectly well from his bedroom in his Mum’s house.
As regards “The EU remains genuinely concerned for the future of Ireland”, I think you should discuss this matter with John Ward. He also writes exceptionally well, and like you I sometimes don’t agree with him.
I seem to recall that yesterday he posted an article from his SLOG, about how much The EU “remains genuinely concerned for the future of” Greece. NOT. You should read it. Mind you it is the size of a small book, and I’ve not finished it yet, but he has written numerous other articles about how the EU has almost completely destroyed, almost everything that was good about Greece, a country and people I really like.
“THE SUNDAY ESSAY: Why a Greece hocked into Eternity is now selling its past to the Giga-Rich”
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2018/09/23/the-sunday-essay-why-a-greece-hocked-into-eternity-is-now-selling-its-past-to-the-giga-rich/
Tony
It was the Greek government that bankrupted the country, not the EU, which had nothing to do with that. I don’t know why supposedly well-read people still fail to understand that. The EU was just somewhat heavy-handed (the ECB) in rescuing them. If the Greeks had not got themselves into the problem in the first place, then the rescue would not have had to happen. And by the way, Britain refused to help out the Greeks (it was Cameron). We could have given them easier conditions than the ECB did, if we liked the Greeks that much, but somehow we didn’t.
Also by the way, we were faced with the same debt problem cumulated by Egypt in the 1860s and 1870s. The debt was owed on the London and Paris money markets. So what did we do in the same situation? Yes, after taking over the Egyptian shares in the Suez Canal in 1875, we then invaded Egypt in 1881, to recover the debt, the French dropping out at the last moment, and continued to occupy the country for 70 years, with some very nasty incidents. But, of course, we’re much, much, nicer and cuddlier than the nasty, nasty, EU.
The blog author you cite, Ward, in any case confuses NATO and the EU, blaming the EU for what NATO did, all in all a very bizarre rant.
Sorry, but you are wrong there. It was the Greek government in cooperation with EU that bankrupted Greece. No government would get their country anywhere near to the state Greece is in without external backing, in fact the playbook and outcome
http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2018/08/20/greece-end-bailout-program-greek-opinion/
is so well documented you would have to assume others were genuinely stupid to attempt to absolve EU, the ECB , and main European creditor nations in any way.
Greece had growth of 3% (while our was 0.5%) and was pushed to accept a loan at10% to cover the cost of Defence for Europe’s border. They didn’t have the courage to walk away, and return to the drachma, and instead accepted stringent Austerity, with the advice to sell their islands to the mega rich. Ireland allegedly owed £17,000 per person to the ECB, while the UK owed more. The EU doesn’t have to be about monopolists screwing countries into destitution. It has the potential for much better, if the will is there to distribute more equitably. The triple A debt standard is obscene, affecting debt interest rates the way it does
So if the UK wants to trade inside the EU27 and sell goods into those markets they will wait for the EU to offer them a good deal ?
Craig,
The lack of preparation for Brexit by the Conservatives has been breathtaking, and it leads me to draw two possible conclusions:
1. The current leadership is only capable of handling “business as usual” politics, lacking the intellectual faculties and courage required to plan the divorce proceedings from the EU, and sculpt a policy landscape for the UK post-Brexit.
2. The current leadership preferred to do as little as possible in the years following the referendum, to make the prospect of Brexit as painful as possible, acting on behalf of an establishment that prefers to remain in the EU, propped up by a compliant mainstream media that serves the same masters. This assumes the leadership were planning all along to manipulate an anxious public into accepting a second referendum.
Neither option makes me optimistic that the will of the people will be served.
Kind regards,
Scott
Since Thatcher the Civil Service has been stripped bare. You have no idea of how junior many Civil Servants are in key Ministries and how little they know and how linguistically challenged they are.
Northern Ireland sells more to the UK mainland than it does to the rest of the world combined. A customs barrier through the Irish Sea would be a really bad idea
True link = https://fullfact.org/economy/60-northern-irelands-exports-go-rest-uk/
Rest of UK = £ 14 billion (58%)
Republic of Ireland = £ 4 billion (16.7%)
Rest of EU = £ 2 Million (8.3 %)
Rest of the world = £$ billion (16.7 %)
A customs barrier between North and South would be economically less damaging than between NI and GB
It is not just a customs barrier. It is electricity supply.
NIE Networks has three transmission interconnectors with the transmission grid in the Republic of Ireland.
N Ireland has very expensive electricity. Interconnectors are under EU Rules.
So maybe car batteries or diesel generators will keep N Ireland functioning ?
Very strange that Teresa May thought she could mug the Eurocrats off so crudely and blatantly, thinking they wouldn’t remember what she’d already agreed to a few months earlier. Must come from being surrounded all day every day by halfwits. Although surely she could see that the likes of Barnier were on another intellectual level to her ministers and tame hacks? If she is incapable of seeing that, it really suggests she is a simpleton herself..
Eurocrats ???? These are political leaders of 27 Sovereign States within the European Union. Perhaps the very same people who attend the UN to hear Trump speak. They are not “Euro-Bureaucrats”. – you make the very mistake that damns Britons
That was an interesting document Craig and for one who is concerned as ex-patriate resident inside EU-27 more informative than most commentary I have seen, though I suspected there would be a protected right as “EU Citizen” inside a non-native EU-State.
As for Bad Faith, I think the British Government has simply oozed it all over. I think Trump was right – better to have gone in hard and negotiate like Thatcher did to the point that Helmut Schmidt and Valery Giscard d’Estaing bought her off – ironically in Dublin !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/21/newsid_2546000/2546127.stm
I like this historical reference too.
May has been ineffectual however and untrustworthy. she is lashing herself to the wheel of a ship headed for the rocks.
There is no capacity for Negotiation in British politicians, there is no understanding of foreign culture and a total inability to grasp linguistic connotations and cultural mores. Germans do not negotiate – they use Schlagabtausch whereas English use Duplicitous Language and imprecisions.
May is a total disaster. I am reminded Putin’s comment about the Americans nowadays – pigeons playing chess. There is a total absence of negotiating skills in US/UK today and it is becoming highly dangerous that people like Lavrov have no equal counterparty anywhere – no Genscher, no Hurd or Carrington or Douglas Home.
There are Negotiation Courses at Harvard Business School – May could have seconded key Civil Servants back in 2016 to attend. She could have created a Grand Committee of BreXit MPs to advise Cabinet. She could have been inclusive.
What we see is the inability of Party Political Tribalism to handle the impact of a National Plebiscite expressing Popular Will. It has all come down to the Conservative Party and it has become ideologically rigid like the Comintern. There were plenty of scenarios to play these negotiations. ALL people wanted was an Opt-Out from Political Union and EU Commission Dirigisme……..the Single Market was easily retained (until Lancaster House Jan 2017) through EFTA/EEA.
Looking at UKIP strategy is interesting as, whether you agree with them or not, they did draw a detailed plan up and their now leader is the person who did it.
His strategy was:
1) ‘Goodbye, we are gone.’
2) Abolition of European Communities Act 1972 – removing from British Law the legal foundation of UK being a member of EU.
At that point, UKIP tell EU that, according to UK law, EU law is no longer sovereign as UK is no longer legally part of EU.
There is no negotiation whatsoever, there. Out of EU, out of Customs Union.
In their viewpoint, at that point all EU regulations remain in force due to seperate legislation, but ECHR is no longer legal currency, new EU regulations will not be passed and imposed and funding beyond 2021 is not forthcoming.
3) Reimposition of British Waters at 200 miles or halfway between two land masses.
Quite how they would police that I am not sure, but like all these things, it is a matter of asserting international law. Good thing Trump’s lot do not want to fish in the North Sea!
4) There are of course a myriad of logistical issues like Air Traffic Control, where the border exists on HS1, how you police migration to and from Ulster etc etc.
But the UKIP position was not to negotiate on Leaving, rather to leave using UK Law and then to start negotiating thereafter. Starting from WTO trade rules but proposing a Free Trade position in negotiations.
What amazes me is how this argument was completely censored by the Press.
No-one has said the legal case is nonsense.
So why were BBC et al so afraid to air it??
Because it’s a load of specious sh*te from a party that is racist and xenophobic. They have very little support, are moving to the far right, and there is no need to give them any free publicity. Their plan is naive rubbish and would cripple the UK straight away.
What is the difference between the UKIP proposal and No-Deal? There isn’t any, is there? “funding beyond 2021” – No point as exit will be Brexit Day in March 2019. The EU won’t agree to this one either – they don’t care whether UK law remains the same as EU law for the day or two before some new divergent law is introduced.
The interrogator, Kay Burley, worthy of the Stasi, is about to interview Hunt. Will she give him a hard time? 😉
She is in New York. Full of herself as per usual.
May has just been speaking at the so called Global Business Forum LOL at Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-26/u-k-s-may-to-pledge-low-corporate-taxes-post-brexit-gbf-update?
Sharp Ears,
I’d give him the blunt end of a broomstick. I really do not like this man. Dunno about Kay Burley, cos I don’t watch Telly, but she does come from Wigan and seems a little bit more presentable than Baroness Ashton of Upholland, who when she became famous doing the equivalent job of Hillary Clinton for the EU, no one in the pubs of Upholland I visited recognised her. Do you know this woman? “Nah not one of ours.” However, I probably would have liked her when she worked for CND, and I suspect she is a very nice person, but not savvy enough to take on the likes of Hillary Clinton and Ms FU EU Victoria Nuland. She got done over too during the US coup in The Ukraine. i felt sorry for her. She was like a lamb to the slaughter.
Tony
Catherine Ashton was still however a bit of a star. The Russians hacked her telephone conversation which revealed the truth. At the time, I thought the Russians were probably the snipers, but this turned out not to be true. I just found the full version somewhat hard to find, (loads of stuff is currently being deleted from the internet by the CIA, but this is a good excerpt.) The entrire conversation will still be there somewhere. Deleted stuff tends to come back on the internet, despite the best efforts of the CIA to delete it. T
“Kiev Snipers hired by Maidan leaders leaked EU’s Ashton phone tape”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSxMaU8oUeo
Tony
Who cares? Why do you even bother drawing attention to such a waste of time?
I was really cheered but also perplexed by clause 49 because to me it read that, thanks to Ireland and the Good Friday agreement, we were basically all going to be staying in the single market and customs union, since I ruled out any possibility of there being any other solution to avoiding a hard border. Certainly none that this cretinous shower could come up with.
But what was perplexing me was why Theresa had agreed to this clause since she had ruled our continuing membership of the single market and customs union.
It suggested either she couldn’t read, or else she had no intention of ever fulfilling this agreement. She had just wanted talks not to stall.
So you are confirming me in my second suspicion, there never was any good faith on this.
The third possibility is that perhaps she genuinely hoped that in coming months she really could find a technological solution to not having a hard border and undermining the Good Friday agreement, and not having a border in the Irish Sea. She was clutching at straws if that was the case.
MBC,
I assume you are in the minority, and want to Remain in The EU Centralised Dictatorship, specifically set up, and totally controlled by The CIA. The CIA are not nice people. You actually want to become as impoverished as the average Greek?
Why????
Do you work for The Civil Service? In my experience, even the ones who have still got a job, are pretty useless, and are just hanging on for their pension. They want to Remain doing Sweet FA of any use too.
The EU presents No future for our Kids and Grandkids. The EU is specifically designed to make the Rich richer, and the Poor poorer. You probably just simply believe the brainwashing, which is extremely powerful, and very hard to defend with Facts, cos you are not interested cos you have Faith in the EU. Haven’t you seen what’s happenning?
Don’t you Respect the concept of Democracy. We did all vote on this. And the vote was to get out of The EU. Most sensible decision The British people have made since they voted for the NHS after WWII. They are trying to dismantle that too. Already have if you want a new pot tooth. It will cost you over £1000.
Tony
The CIA? Haha, please don’t insult our intelligence.
Ian, Now you are back at school, please get back to your physics homework. Here’s a link for you, but don’t let Clark see it.
https://off-guardian.org/2018/09/26/9-11-unmasked-a-remarkable-review/
I’ve just had the gas man round, cos someone has been making a stink. He came in with all his kit, and checked out everything, and says no its not you.
I might be a bit deaf, but I have absolutely no problems smelling gas.
It’s dangerous stuff, and I thanked him. He’s doing a good job.
Tony
I see. So to prove your conspiracy theory about the CIA and the EU you send me a link to a 9/11 truther. Very rational and convincing. Not.
Tony, Ian, it is well documented that the European Union as established as the EC by the treaty of Rome in 1957 was indeed (one of) the anti-Soviet projects funded in part by the US Central Intelligence Agency. FOIA documents reveal such, one of the political research departments of a UK university has published papers on this. It is accepted fact. Winston Churchill and his son-in-law Sandy Denis was similarly involved, tho’ they noted at the time that about half of the Conservative party was against European unions, and the same was honestly true of Labour at the time.
C.i.A (lower case intelligence!) now claim that they are going to leave “us” alone, and go after nation-states again. Persia, Rusland, France, Spanish-world etc etc, as if we believe ‘em!
https://intelnews.org/2018/09/26/01-2405/
“Sandy Dennis” = Edwin Duncan Sandys,
More here it was not through the overt policy conducted by John Foster Dulles as Secretary of State that the US became the prime mover behind European integration. It was instead through the covert operations dear to his brother, Allen, who became Director of the CIA in 1953 shortly after John Foster Dulles became Secretary of State. In the summer of 1948, Allen Dulles and William Donovan, the ex-head of the Office of Strategic Services, which became the CIA in 1947, created the American Committee on United Europe.
Ostensibly a non-profit private corporation, its leaders were senior intelligence operatives. Donovan was the Chairman, Dulles the Vice-Chairman and the executive director was Thomas W. Braden, who had served in the OSS and who would join the CIA in 1950. On the board of ACUE there was, among others, General Walter Bedell Smith who would become Director of the CIA on 7 October 1950.
The purpose of this Committee was to provide covert support and control of the then nascent European integration process. Its creation had an immediate effect in Europe. Within weeks, in October 1948, the five powers[14] which had signed the Brussels Treaty on 17 March 1948 – the treaty which brought into being the Western European Union and which thus led to the formation of NATO a year later – decided to establish the Council of Europe. The European Movement, which was to be a major recipient of US covert funds, came into being at the same time (on 25 October 1948).
Behind the scenes, the Committee played a crucial role in ensuring the success of the new European project. In the period 1948 to 1960, it was to inject over $3 million into European groups in order to garner support for the various stages of European integration, from the creation of the Council of Europe in 1949 to the US-backed announcement of the Schuman Plan on 9 May 1950 and the creation of the European Economic Community in 1957.[15] This financial support was absolutely decisive in the very first years of the European construction because it was only thanks to injections of cash from America in 1949 and 1950 that the European Movement was saved from financial collapse.[16] The European Movement was, to that extent, a classic bogus NGO of the kind that has sprung up all over Central and Eastern Europe in the last 25 years: a front organisation for American interests.
The transfers of funds were kept secret in order to maintain the illusion that there was a genuine European support for the new supranational structures. It was essential at the same time to manufacture consent for the military unification of Europe, under American leadership, which was put in place at the same time: the Council of Europe’s Statute was signed on 5 May 1949, just a month and a day after the signature of North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April 1949. The very close proximity of these dates should remind us that the political and military unification of Europe under US leadership were two aspects of one, single, integrated process.
American control was also used to neutralise British opposition to European federalism, which neither the governing Labour party nor the Conservatives wanted. Britain had supported the creation of the inter-governmental Council of Europe. But the US-backed proclamation of the Coal and Steel Community in May 1950 excluded the UK, the largest coal and steel producer in Europe, precisely in order to obtain the desired supranational structures which the British rejected.[17] Two months after the Schuman declaration, the first President of the European Movement, Duncan Sandys, Churchill’s son-in-law, was evicted from his position because of his opposition to federalism and replaced instead by Paul-Henri Spaak. The Secretary-General of the Council of Europe, Joseph Retinger, told Sandys to go because “our American friends do not agree with your tactics.”[18] And in the words of Thomas Braden, the US intelligence officer who was executive director of the ACUE, one of the tasks of Spaak’s new secretariat was to generate support for federalism through “the initiation of major propaganda campaigns in all European countries.”
You can see why it was in American interests post war to help create a united Europe. It doesn’t mean they ‘control’ it. Nor does it mean it wasn’t a good idea. Trump and the rest of them are very keen to undermine it and splinter it, since they do not want a powerful trading bloc which can stand up to American interests. Just look at the future Fox and co are planning for this country – a pathetic lapdog of extreme rightwing America. That is where the left help enable the alt right, who are far more powerful and well-resourced – Koch brothers for a start. The risible idea that a soltiary UK can somehow implement a glorious independent social democratic model is complete nonsense, which will be steam rollered by the right who have very different plans and the means to implement them.
Tony, look at these tiny little truss-seats and compare them with the box-columns; how much metal in each?
http://cryptome.org/info/wtc-punch/pict55.jpg
Once the columns got out of line, those little lugs were all that was resisting the descent of the top sections. Forget it, mate; they didn’t stand a chance.
Ian, thanks for that astringent common sense. Trump’s America is not Truman’s or Eisenhower’s.
I think it would be hard to find anybody in history that has caused more damage to the WORLD than that elitist neurotic c*nt Allen Dulles. Adding it all up, his death and misery count is probably higher than f*cking Hitler’s. Unfortunately, history school books seem to hold a different opinion.
We in Scotland voted Remain. By a large and clear majority I take it you don’t support democracy for Scots?
She agreed then. Now she is trying to English and Welsh on that agreement. What’s not to like? Suits the people of Scotland and Ireland in the longer term.
Someone noted that a large part of the problem is that the UK seems to think it is negotiating a future trade deal, whilst the EU thinks it is is still negotiating the withdrawal agreement. And it isn’t helped by the growing evidence that the Prime Minister is not so much wearing her own rose-tinted spectacles as wearing Douglas Adams’ Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses (‘designed to help people develop a relaxed attitude to danger. They follow the principle “what you don’t know can’t hurt you” and turn completely dark and opaque at the first sign of danger. This prevents you from seeing anything that might alarm you. This does, however, mean that you see absolutely nothing, including where you’re going.’)
I agree with you Craig on the manifest problems of the EU. Unfortunately, I also think that (to badly mangle Churchill’s quote, paraphasing another), it’s the worst option except for all the others. Sure, we need to put our own house in order urgently – I fear it may already be beyond repair – but flouncing out of a project that still has good intentions signficantly diminishes future chances of recovery. Especially in a world where the President of the United States can stand up in front of the United Nations and decry the entire concept of international partnership.
Craig you are quite right on this, is is bad faith, she is just trying to hold her party together, ignoring the fact that, on leaving the EU, opinion is divided in both the main parties. Having made the mistake of pandering, first to the Brexit lobby with the referendum and then to the DUP the Tories are left between the proverbial rock and hard place. She needs to bite the bullet, put the options to the electorate and let the chips fall where they may, sorry for the mixed metaphors, sometimes words fail me.
It seem s as if Mr. Craig Murray is back. Good, us from oversea have really go no notion of how the truth is presented in Engelande.
We do know that English press is a lying piece of shit. There is a few Media Lens among, but to few.
I think the britis as a population, is now as stupid generally as Sudan. Else how come the Tories ar still in power?
And no we have still not forgotten the fleet thing in 1807 and the Syria treatment we were given. I have a long collective memory.
You will pay, you will pay on 1.04.2019 when Britain is revoked to irrelevancy. Hi.hi I Cant wait. please then F. O, in the sunset.
In the meantime Britain is busy making yet another enemy, this time Russia. sigh! (See Montgomery quotes) Double sigh!
Russia would obliberate Britain using 2 % of its nuclear weapons, and no you are not welcome in either Sweden or Denmark, we dont particularly like pommeys I suggest you take a mass masturbate on you trident (which the Us controls, hi, hi) and relax.
Your Governor will be there soon and tell you what to do.
Once a slave nation, always a slave nation.
No, I do not hate British, I just severely dislike them.
“I think the britis as a population, is now as stupid generally as Sudan. Else how come the Tories ar still in power?”
Hard to argue with that. But only in England do the vile Tories with their cruel and dangerous views win majority support amongst voters. The rest of us are getting dragged along by these dirty scumbags.
I don’t think the differences between Scotland and England have ever been so pronounced. English society is repulsive to me and I don’t care what anyone says, Brexit was fanned and fuelled by racism, xenophobia, and disinformation which only a shower of diabolical halfwits would fall for.
The good news is that Brexit is going to teach them a lesson they won’t forget in a hurry.
Experience is a brutal teacher, but you learn…
@Hatuey
“But only in England do the vile Tories with their cruel and dangerous views win majority support amongst voters.”
No they don’t. The Tories have not won a majority in a British general election in England since the 1950s, the same decade they last did the same in Scotland. (Source.)
I knew someone would say something tedious like that. And now, of course, I give emphasis to the difference between a simple majority and an absolute majority. No party in the UK has won more than 50% vote share (an absolutely majority) in the post-War period. So, let’s stop being silly.
If you look at say the last 6 general elections, the Tories in Scotland have only got above a 20% share of the vote once and that was last year.
In England the Tory vote share is typically over 40% giving them the support they need to win enough seats and form governments, regardless of how Scotland votes. I think the only time that seats in Scotland made a difference in Parliament was in the 1950s when Labour depended on Scottish Labour MPs to form a government.
We can say with absolutely certainty, then, that if England voted Tory at the same level Scotland voted Tory, there wouldn’t have been one Tory government in the UK in the last 50 years. And that’s essentially the point I was making — England votes for the vile Tories, we don’t.
Incidentally, you might want to take into account the possibility of English people in Scotland voting Tory and skewing the vote. This was an issue during the referendum in 2014. Voters from the rest of the U.K. living in Scotland voted against independence in high numbers in 2014, something like 75% voted against independence. And the majority of those are, of course, originally from England.
Further to that, had voters from the rest of the UK not been given the vote in the 2014 referendum (just as residents from the rest of the EU were forbidden from voting in the EU referendum), then Scotland would be independent right now.
Please don’t confuse us Scots with the English. It is the English who are xenophobic, imperialistic and stupid. We in Scotland voted 62% to Remain. It was the English who voted to Leave.
“The EU remains genuinely concerned for the future of Ireland”
Perhaps in the same way it was genuinely concerned for the future of Greece.
Ireland now gives them €3bn a year, enough to buy a gesture of concern.
Pity the Greeks couldn’t be bothered to run their country properly.
possibly the most painfully hilarious proposal is a ‘Smart Border’ run by an IT system. I am putting in a £1 million bid to run it from my laptop, in partnership with Carrillion – oh, sorry, no, they are bankrupt – ok ATOS – oops, forgot they are incompetent and sacked – so Maximus then – they’ll be fine, no problem. I absolutely guarantee that it will not go over budget, will be robust and reliable, and will not be prone to cyber attack by hackers or foreign governments. Honest.
hey just look at the enviable record of british banks lately–what could go wrong?
That’s just silly.
You need to work with Capita. With their “TV licensing” success, they are well placed to look after the Irish border.
If it’s too much for them, you could always bring Serco in on it too!
Craig Murray does outstanding journalism and I am an admirer, but I found his penultimate sentence in the above post a bit odd. He writes that he “…changed my rose-tinted view of the EU after seeing its leaders line-up to applaud the Francoist paramilitary forces for clubbing grandmothers over the head for having the temerity to try to vote in Catalonia” (for independence). I’m curious as to why the EU’s brutal austerity imposed earlier on Greece and the public assets looted from that country didn’t inspire similar revulsion? Greek GDP has fallen by an astronomical 25%, the suicide rate has soared and the brightest of its younger generation are leaving in large numbers. Perhaps it’s because his support for Scottish independence makes him more sympathetic about some abuses versus others.
Another “Blame the EU for what the Greek government did”. Sounds quite like Tory behaviour over Brexit, doesn’t it? Hard to see the difference anyway in such British comments. Of course the slight difference is that the Greeks didn’t want to leave the EU, a sovereign decision. Nobody was forcing them to stay. Somehow they found the deal better to stay in, nevertheless. Perhaps that should be a warning to us.
I didn’t agree with Craig over Catalonia, by the way. The EU just did what it had to do – support one of its members. I don’t suppose they particularly enjoyed doing their duty. Though I see that the former French Prime Minister, Manuel Walls, born in Barcelona, is now candidate for Mayor of Barcelona, on a unionist platform, I think. That’s created quite a degree of detestation in France.
Laguerre, I’m blaming the EU for what it did when reckless French and German banksters made risky loans to Greece knowing that they would be bailed out rather than face the consequences of their reckless greed. All the bailout money went straight to the foreign banks, rewarding their greed and negligence. This is also what happened after the 2008 sub-prime crisis. It’s only petty criminals who go to jail, not the banksters who steal billions.
You stated that the Greeks didn’t want to leave the EU but that comment has no factual support (or even any relevance to my point). The Greeks were never offered the opportunity to leave and it obviously wouldn’t have solved their debt problem anyway. You are very ill informed and are spouting the corporate media line that the Greeks are solely to blame. These crisis caused by the banks occur every few years without a single bankster ever going to jail because the banks have the politicians in their pocket. People like you act like unwitting cheerleaders for these endless bankster money grabs.
I think you must know the sequence of choices that were made by the Greeks at vote, and that makes your assertion disingenuous to say the least. It is a warning to us, one that many people in Europe take much more seriously than you might imagine.
Regarding Cataluña EU had nothing to do except demonstrate its powerlessness on questions of national sovereignty, but to miss the opportunity of playing both sides was too much for it to reject. You should know well of the various ties that stretch from Cataluña to its north.
Valls being unionist, well I don’t know really where that is all going but I have the feeling that it is nowhere near as straightforward as it looks. I think with him being socialist it would be the Spanish right that would be most alarmed, existing franco/spanish socialist ties and influence are already known and demonstrated, but also disliked by a part of society.
laguerre, you talk a load of shite about greece on this page. al, of it contrary to established fact. then you quote wikipedia as a reputable source for info. are you turkish?
“The problem is, she has already accepted it.” This is simply false, as nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
“I personally changed my rose-tinted view of the EU after seeing its leaders line-up to applaud the Francoist paramilitary forces for clubbing grandmothers over the head for having the temerity to try to vote in Catalonia.” I guess you weren’t watching when the EU imposed coups d’etat on Greece and Italy.
The Chequers so called deal was clearly the work of the deep state, who are a bunch of Remainers. The Civil Service is obviously full of a bunch of arrogant incompetents because the way is no clear for the United Kingdom to Leave the European Union, ie, a no deal Brexit, which is precisely the opposite of what they wanted.
Deep state? Pull the other one.
Exactly so, Steve. The UK remains independent and sovereign, and has the means to make its independence stick – thank God. The referendum established that the people wish the UK to leave the EU, and that’s what must now happen.
If the EU bureaucracy, or its friends in high places in the UK, try to sabotage that decision or to water it down, the bottom line is that we just leave. Britain (previously England and Scotland separately) survived pretty well as independent nations for at least 900 years, and can most certainly do so again.
But Steve Hayes – she signed it!! What do you propose? That she blot fair Albion’s escutcheon with dishonour??
She’ll do what the European Research Group tell her, and she’ll bloody well like it. And then if they tell her to do something different, she’ll do something different. They’ll leave it to her to do an away-from-podium stomp once they’ve turned the electrical power off and on to show her who’s boss.
Yeah, but anybody from the EU can then tell her that her signature has no legal force on documents.
So it’s Jacob Rees-Mogg versus the “deep state” then? Seriously?
Craig…. to Quote Barnier….. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Its all irrelevant anyway, France is hell bent on the UK not getting a deal, of any description. Ergo there will be no deal, because in truth, there never was going to be a deal.
You cant simply blame one side for a deadlock, it takes two to tango and the EU is not dancing to any tune at all. In reality the UK doesn’t need to create a border in Ireland. Its the EU that will ultimately insist on it. I cant understand for the life of me why the UK government hasn’t simply made that issue the EU’s problem. If the UK operates a policy of Global Free Trade, which it must post Brexit, then a border point is Europes problem, not ours.
“I cant understand for the life of me why the UK government hasn’t simply made that issue the EU’s problem”
Perhaps because it is not in the UK’s gift to make it the EU’s problem. It simply is the EU’s (and Ireland’s) problem. End of.
Simplistic ukip twaddle. There are rules and regulations wherever you are. And trade rules. You can’t just opt out of everything.
“The EU remains genuinely concerned for the future of Ireland, which unlike the UK is a continuing member.”
– specifically in terms of Ireland’s ability to repay the 100+ billion in private debt put on the country’s balance sheet in 2007/2008 by instruction of the European Central Bank.
Meanwhile…why have Appeal Court judges ruled that “suspects” in the 1974 Birmingham bombing case should not be named?
Could it be that some of them went on to hold positions in the Irish government? Could it be that their names will be leaked or otherwise revealed at a time that best helps the Tory party?
Just a thought. Many in the Tory party dislike the Irish just as much as they dislike J__s, blacks, Asians, Middle Easterners, continentals, and Catholics. They don’t think much of people from the US either. But give them a Ian Smith nostalgist from “Rhodesia” and they’re in seventh heaven.
I’d be pretty sure that those named are much closer to home then you suggest – the British Army & MIwhatever have plenty of experience in all things ‘bombs’ and as has been shown elsewhere do not hesitate to make use of that experience on civilian targets.
The majority in Scotland voted to stay in the EU. So, in Scotland remainers are in the majority. Same in Northern Ireland.
For a No Deal Brexit Look forward to:
1. One Trillion Pounds worth minimum of derivatives clearing halted overnight in LCH / London.
2. Instant WTO tarrifs on food adding about £5 Billion of cost to imported, and exported food between EU. So nosebleed inflation on many food stuffs. Tarrifs range between 22% to 46% on many common food stuffs. Circa £20 Billion food trade in and out at present.
3. A further devaluation of the pound adding to economic misery. Add that to the 20% minimum WTO tarrifs.
4. Massive problems at all ports.
5. Nissan, Airbus etc and all other cross EU / UK supply chains devastated by time and cost delays.
6. Not being able to go and live freely across Europe, with your rights guaranteed.
7. The slow motion collapse of the UK housing ponzi scheme. 35% reduction in home prices if BoE predictions are correct.
8. Circa £10 Billion per year costs to industry to set up customs systems to try to “keep things as they have been”. This was predicted cost by HMRC and industry in Financial Times piece.
9. The ill informed Brexit vote will do years of damage to the UK now.
It matters not how you voted, the economic reality is as per above.
Yes, fantastic points.
And then there’s the unquantifiable effects of all those elements as whole. I think we are likely to experience an inflationary holocaust as sterling falls and the relative cost of imports, including raw materials, go up dramatically.
All of these elements you mention are ‘known knowns’. Nobody can guess what impact the ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ may have.
I can easily imagine many people starving to death and the Tories rejecting assistance from abroad because they don’t want to admit that they destroyed the country.
I’ve decided to stockpile food starting in January.
“i can easily imagine people starving to death”
i bet you can. i think you need to get out a bit more..you know, look at the sky, and the sun..have a conversation with some normal people once in a while? just a suggestion. must be awful living in such abject fear of your own shadow
I’m not allowed out…
“A further devaluation of the pound adding to economic misery. Add that to the 20% minimum WTO tarrifs.”
The minimum WTO tariff is 0%.
Project Fear is really getting a little dog-eared by now.
i’ve screen-shot your post. we’ll see, eh. project fear reaching epidemic proportions in your head, eh. i’d hate to live in a world as terrifying as yours. is everything in your life that scary?
Theresa May’s negotiating tactics is to throw childish tantrums and demand she gets her own way ‘or else’, the Salzburg humiliation being claimed as ”her finest hour” by the Daily Express must have sent Donald Tusk rolling round the floor laughing his head off, humiliation being hailed as heroic ! what a pathetic joke the UK has become on the world stage.
Great post, Craig. I agree with it all. The EU lost a lot of friends when it turned its back on Catalonia. I think that will go down as one of the most significant events of this crazy era.
But May destroyed her chances of finding sympathetic ears in Europe when, right at the start of her premiership, she proposed to use EU nationals living in the UK as bargaining chips. With that she poisoned the well of constructive goodwill that existed — and you can bet that Europeans would have wanted to be constructive towards Brexit initially.
Everything as far as the Brexit negotiations have gone could have been so different. Had May approached the EU and the member states in the spirit of honesty and asked them as partners to help, I think things would be very different. All she had to say was that she campaigned against Brexit, the truth, and needs help to limit the damage.
She’s a complete amateur at diplomacy, a spineless thick freak, way worse than Trump.
Yes Hatüey, each of her attempted negotiation strategies from the beginning were dire and counterproductive. I remember her/her team waving the “security/terrorism” flag quite early on – if you don’t give us cherries, immediately, lots of them, then ‘magically’ all your data will disappear (to Gloucestershire) and you will be invaded by mad/bad/isis/white-helmets, apparently guaranteed. Perhaps it was phrased slightly differently, but it was met with a sigh. Oh No, not again. (But yes , again and again)
I just watched her at the UN, same old lies, transparently lies. At least Trumpy got a laugh, and he’s staring down a coup d’état.
Treeza, who I used to like and respect as a superior spookette, is now in Brexit fulfilling the apotheosis of British management theory https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/peter-principle.asp
With reference to my other post above. FT Article quote from HMRC top beek:
“Business will face extra bureaucracy costing up to £20bn a year if Britain opts for the “max fac” customs deal with the EU favoured by Brexiters, the head of HM Revenue & Customs has claimed.
In a dramatic intervention in the fraught Brexit debate, Jon Thompson said the extra form-filling facing British and foreign companies as they crossed a proposed “streamlined” customs border could cost between £17bn-£20bn, around twice the size of Britain’s net annual contribution to the EU budget.” 1
1 Financial Times: UK tax chief warns on £20bn bill for Brexit customs option 23rd May 2018
It is important to note, that the extra costs to try to “keep things as they were”, will cost more than what the UK currently pays totally into the EU budget. This alone makes it part economic madness to leave the customs union.
Remainer agrees with Remainer that Project Fear is the way forward, no shit, Sherlock.
He’s right.
Bellingcat: Salisbury Novichok poisoning suspect ‘was GRU colonel given top military honour by Vladimir Putin’
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/salisbury-novichok-poisoning-suspect-putin-13312713
Fake or not?
Pretty obvious Bellingcat is fed info by intelligence services thats for sure.
They do look similar, the Ruslan Boshirov in the interview and the Anatoliy Chepiga in the photographs that are doing the rounds.
“Chepiga” is a Ukrainian name. Of course, not all Ukrainians, or people of Ukrainian origin in Russia, support the fascist government in Kiev.
Anybody following the Benalla affair in France? Voici reports that “Alexandre Benalla reveals the true nature of his relationship with Emmanuel Macron”.
Get what they’re hinting at?
Well this ‘selfie with a glock’ was seemingly without the appropriate license, so the 27-year old son of Moroccans will seem to be yesterday’s plaything?
https://m-lanouvellerepublique-fr.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/m.lanouvellerepublique.fr/poitiers%252Fselfie-de-benalla-arme-a-poitiers-laura-la-serveuse-temoigne-sur-mediapart
(I shortened the url but I think it still gets to the poor waitress Laura being shot – many other outlets are now blurring her identity for some reason – it is very rare for French news to actually contain nouvelles!)
This blog affirms that he’s neither the lover, nor the armed bodyguard of the pres. but that he was seen at a big Saudi do this week
https://lecolonel.net/mais-que-faisait-donc-alexandre-benalla-a-la-reception-de-lambassadeur-darabie-saoudite/
Perhaps Le Colonel is being sarcastic?
Crucial thing is for UK to stay in Single Market.
Much more important than Customs Union, which would not solve Northern Ireland problem.
SM would also honour Brexit vote, while keeping trade flowing.
Both Con and Lab hopeless on this issue.
Hot holding my breath anyone will get a grip of this now.
Gibraltar is in the single market and not the customs union.
Just what I wonder motivates May to continue dealing with her humiliating Brexit fiasco? A sense of duty to the general public? A Brexit No deal will harm the poorer sections of UK society seems to be the consensus, and Scotland leaving the UK seems ever more likely. So is her sense of duty focussed to serve perhaps another faction of society and Is it this faction of society that are pulling her strings?
A child of Perfidious Albion, and so, not to be trusted?
Mrs May also misinformed the British people in a recent video where she claimed that Norway could not be. Model for Britain’s relationship with the EU because Norway was in the customs union and so unable to make its own trade arrangements with non EU countries. Both of these assertions are untrue. If she believes them, then her negotiation has been based on a false premise – since her Lancaster House speech of January 2017. If she does not believe them, she is lying. There are several other untrue assertions about Norway’s EEA/EFTA membership.
It was shortly before this speech by Mrs May that the UK representative to Brussels, Sir Ivan Rogers, resigned. In his farewell message to colleagues, he urged them to “speak truth to power” – especially when truth was unwelcome. Whilst the EEA/EFTA arrangement would not entirely solve the Irish border problem, it would go a very long way towards it. I noticed that at the recent Dublin launch of the IREXIT party, Ray Bassett, former Irish ambassador to Canada, appeared to endorse this route in a short broadcast by RT.