We are frequently told that people in Venezuela have no food, clothing or toilet paper, and that popular discontent with the left wing government is driven by real hunger. There are elements of truth in this story, though the causes of economic dislocation are far more complex than the media would have us believe.
But I ask you to look at this photo of supporters of CIA poster-boy, the West’s puppet unelected “President” Juan Guaido, taken at a Guaido rally in Caracas two days ago and published yesterday in security services house journal The Guardian. Please take a really close look at the photo. Blow it up as big as you can. Scan individual people in the crowd, one by one.
These are not the poor and most certainly not the starving. As it chances I have a great deal of life experience working amongst seriously deprived, hungry and despairing people. I know the gaunt face of want and the desperate glance of need. Look at these Guaido supporters, one by one by one. This designer spectacled, well-coiffed, elegantly dressed, sleekly jowled group does not know hunger. This group does not know want. This is a proper right wing gathering, a gathering of the nicely off section of society. This is a group of those who have corruptly been siphoning Venezuela’s great wealth for decades and who want to make sure the gravy train flows properly in their direction again. It is, in short, a group of exactly the kind of people you would expect to support a CIA coup.
Those manicured hands raised in the air will never throw rocks, or get involved in violence unless against a peasant strapped to a chair for them. It is not this crowd which will suffer as public disorder is manipulated and directed by the CIA. These wealthy ones are immune, just as Davos serves as nothing but an annual reminder of how very poorly God aims avalanches.
There is real suffering in Venezuela. The CIA is working hard to stoke violence, and the genuine poor will soon start to die, both in those egged on to riot and in the security services. But do not get taken in by the complete nonsense that this is a popular, democratic revolution. It is not. It is yet another barefaced CIA regime change coup.
UPDATE Such wisdom as this blog finds is often crowd-source, and with thanks to a commenter below here is some useful information from Jill Stein.
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Iam eagerly awaiting a statement from the Labour party with regards to Venezuela, are they standing behind the Trump cabal? or are they prepared to support Venezuelas sovereignity and right to selfdetermination, however many bought tinpot generals in the US are falling over themselves to denounce Maduro?
Whilst you are waiting perhaps you might be interested in the appearance of Jeremy Corbyn on En Contacto Con Maduro.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eL8_wtS-0I
He seems quite clear in his admiration for all things Venezuelan. Oddly he is equally clear as to the iniquity of the ECB, I wonder why he is so clear when speaking to Venezuelans, but much less clear when speaking to British people.
Do you have any thoughts as to what kind of self determination is possible when you are living in a country with a 10 million percent inflation rate.
I suppose that complex situations cannot be deciphered with simplistic explanations.
Hyperinflation, as happened in Germany after the 1928 bankink crash saw emaciated people queuing to get bread/food with barrowloads of money.
Sanctions do not help the situation, nor do false emphatic MSM priorities who ignore the suffering we help to cause.
Should JC topple this wretched right wing cabal before it drags down Ireland in its mire? Should he stop dealing with Saudi devils who use our arms to devastate Yemen?
Under another new US puppet the country will be sold off to hedge/vulture funds, so how can that possibly change the lot of Venezuelans?
I was ankered off Caracas in 1968 and it was a poor US vasall then, kept down by shortchanging moneylenders and ruthless exploitation. It is such a rich country, but it needs expertise and fair guidance to get out of the spiralling debt.
Hyperinflation in Germany happened between 1921 and 1923
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Loonie’s attempt at gotcha corbyn, really is quite lame. For all his over-long dull rantings he really hasn’t developed beyond the populist defecations of the Late Paul Dacre, an almost forgotten 20th Century teacup fascist and fatburg that was finally sent on a long overdue journey to the sanitation plant in 2017.
“Do you have any thoughts as to what kind of self determination is possible when you are living in a country with a 10 million percent inflation rate.”
A: Use gold/silver coins as your money, changing a few for fiat when required.
Thanks for the link to En Contacto Con Maduro, Loony. I didn’t know Jeremy Corbyn speaks Spanish. Very impressive!
His wife, Laura Alvarez, is Mexican.
The odious Piers Morgan complained a year or two ago about Corbyn chatting with a Spanish speaking Arsenal player (Corbyn and Morgan both Arsenal fans) in Spanish and accused Corbyn of doing it to exclude him from the conversation!
I think if you buy a pictorial dictionary and look up oaf, you’ll see Piers Mogan’s Photo
According to the Constitution of Venezuela the citizens have a right to free education and health care. Access to housing and food is also considered a human right. The latter goal is persued by rationing and price controls at the moment. How it all works in practice I do’nt know apart from the fact that Venezuela has a higher UN Human Deveopement Index than most of its neighbours.
Take a look at per capita GDP – Venezuela has the lowest in South America
N.M
Well it was only right surely to get past Holocaust Memorial Day first?
I’m sure no one was expecting that mistake. Only a Loony would do that!
Anyway, I’m sure that Labour will always back a call for a plebescite in any democracy that has a government that May have lost popular support. It would be loony not to!
I fully agree with Craig’s analysis of how well dressed the people in the photograph are, in fact when I first saw the photo I felt exactly the same. “Something funny about this”, I thought, in fact the best dressed crowd of rebels I have ever seen!
Wasn’t it back in the 70’s after the oil shocks and rapid rise in the cost of oil that Venezuela first got itself into difficulties. Venezuela along with the rest of the world had expected the price of oil to keep on going up – up to $40, $50, $60, $80, $100 and so instead of setting aside its oil wealth it leveraged it and borrowed, but oil collapsed. It was then, back in in the 70’s that not only Venezuela but all of the world started the process of getting hooked on debt and on governments running deficit budgets during both booms and recessions [Keynes only ever advocated that a Gov should run a deficit in a recession not during the boom]. Now we see Venezuela up Carey Street, but they are not alone.
Japan and the US (like the UK) can print their own money. Japan has a debt to GDP ration of 220% and the US has over 100%. Most EU states can’t even print and Italy has a 137% ratio.
Together EU states owe over $30 Trillion and although circa 7.5 T of that is ours, here in the UK, those of France and Germany are not far off. Even Luxembourg owes over 1/2 that of the UK?!
There is a lot of talk amongst hard Brexiteers of following the Singapore model and so it is worth noting that Singapore is second to Ireland in ratcheting up its deficit / GDP ration, whilst interestingly the two countries deleveraging the most are Saudi & Israel.
Of course all these figures ratios and tables are thought not to take into account a lot of unknowns and off balance sheet figures i.e. actual debts when pension commitments and PFI are taken into account and real debts are probably much bigger and even more worrying.
There are only 4 things a Government can do with debt:
1) borrow off other countries (in which case if your powerful and not stupid you borrow only in your own currency and keep a strong army on standby so that when you inflate to pay off the creditor doesn’t take hostile action and sequester etc);
2) raise money domestically by borrowing at home and taxation (not so easy when you have been raising taxes and covert taxes year on year and you want to avoid a recession);
3) increase the money supply / QE as we have done since 2008;
4) default.
Venezuela is stuck. They can’t borrow (save from Russia and China) and they can’t print without hyper inflation and so they can only default and as they are not powerful they can only accept the outsider’s terms. Unusually most of Latin America is supporting the US for once.
But Venezuela is not alone in having this problem it is only that their problem is very obvious whereas the fact that we are also standing knee deep in the same sterile fertiliser is not obvious to us. Our sterile fertiliser is still smelling of roses.
Countries can no longer afford to run welfare state, military and service their debts. Something has to give.
So there is some talk of a “Great Reset”. Of re-writing the social contract, of shifting the Overton window so that the state ceases to provide welfare, but this can’t be done without a massive shock i.e. cover. To some extent popular movements such as the Tea Party support this argument; i.e. look to see if a movement has grass roots or astro turf billionaire backing.
The problem facing those who advocate a Great Reset is further compounded by the fact that. we are experiencing greater automisation of the work place i.e. how can you end welfare when the numbers out of work are going to increase? How do you continue welfare when the numbers out of work are going to increase – unless the state takes over and nationalises.
In the EU the debtors nations (i.e. I think that is all of us) can only leave or surrender or if they are lucky like us they can print (run their own QE rather than rely on ECB QE).
So far no one has left: Greece failed and the UK (well we don’t know yet).
Those remaining who borrow in a currency which they can’t print (i.e. Euro) can realistically only hope or lobby for debt forgiveness. That is in effect debt mutalisation or where the ECB takes over and extinguishes all or part of the members states’ debts and in return the debtor nations give up sovereignty.
That is the EU break up or integrate into a super state dilemma. What sort of super state is that: is it a socialist one which continues to provide welfare / increased welfare or does it fundamentally change direction and refuse to provide welfare? I don’t know but there is right wing movement in Poland, Hungary, Czech, France and most importantly in Germany – so we have to await the outcome of the May EU elections.
Anyway, I don’t have any answers, but am just mulling this over.
It almost seems that when we talk about Brexit we talk about all the wrong stuff as if the real issues are taboo or too difficult to understand or just don’t resonate.
The real issues are how to deal with: 1) Sovereign debt; 2) automisation in the work place with loss of employment and loss of tax revenue; 3) increased costs of military infrastructure.
The response to these issues by the governments and the voters of the EU may see the EU fundamentally change to either fall apart or further integrate are we better in or out, and as we are in do we have a moral duty to remain in?
I voted to leave as I thought the EU would either fall apart or further integrate. I still think this. If it falls apart are we not better out? If it is to further integrate then do I want that (not really but maybe if I knew what it meant I would reconsider) and I was peeved that no one ever asked me if I agreed to being part of an EU superstate (indeed people like Clegg were pretending that further integration was some right wing screen story).
I had thought we would be better out and hunkering down so that wen the storm came we were ahead of the curve and had begun to adapt. But having that said is a big bet to make because there is a heavy short term to cost to pay in leaving and as all market punters will know one can lose a lot of money being right when one’s timing is wrong (and people have been prophets of doom and gloom because of government debt since the 80’s), Anyway, now I am undecided. It’s a big bet and a very uncertain future. Thank God I am not in Venezuela and I hope they find a resolution to their current predicament, which doesn’t involve violence.
Universal Basic Income
https://www.ubie.org/
https://basicincome.org/news/2018/02/europe-council-europe-adopts-resolution-basic-income/
Thanks Dungroanin:
UBI – how is it going to be funded? Will it happen?
Will it coincide with or trigger inflation ( i.e. if really universal it will equate to helicopter money).
If there is inflation will its initial comfort be illusory – a superficial short term sop and cover story to cushion the onset of automisation and mass unemployment?
like the 21 trillion of missing pentagon money? the bank bailouts? why is there money for those, and not for social welfare?
Exactly Pretzelattack that is an essential question. I don’t know how much is missing but I recollect Donald Rumsfeld’s announcement on, I think it was it 9/10, that there was then 2T missing. That was forgotten the very next day.
US debt really began to increase in the 60’s under Johnson when it incurred the costs of Vietnam (military) but also of the Great Society (welfare). It couldn’t afford both but has been hooked on both ever since.
Is the EU is now thinking of emulating US’s double spend of the 60’s with an EU army (I don’t actually know if they are anticipating that an EU army will end up costing more than their current contribution to NATO expenditure but presumably it would) and increased welfare i.e. UBI?
Create it out of the magic money tree directly into peoples accounts.
They spend it and pay taxes.
The multiplier works through the economy paying taxes all the time.
The accumulated taxes are used to cancel the initial magic money input.
Inflation happens when supply can not meet demand.
There is no shortage of supply of basics.
When Robots produce things and their ‘income’ can be taxed at near 100%.
There is much more out there – look up Modern Monetary Theory or basically anything that says – governments SPEND & TAX. Not the otherway round.
OK I will have a scout about for Modern Monetary Theory, but don’t robots (those fanged vampire robots) generally pay their taxes offshore. Hence I suspect greater likelihood of greater EU integration i.e. to tax FAANGS etc more effectively.
Are the mass unemployed living on UBI actually going to be consuming all the goods and services the robots produce????
Had a quick look at MMT (v quick) and my first thought was is this a left wing version of Ronald Reagan’s administration’s “Structural Deficit” theory which sought to pretend that running a defect was somehow normal, when even Keynes had said deficits were only for getting out of the woods. Reganite economics are confusing as they seem on the one hand to have been Friedman & Hayek but on the other hand they pragmatically ran these structural deficits.
I have never got my head around Douglas and the Social Credit movement: is MMT a variant of Social Credit?
Mmt is same as all economics – except it describes reality rather than theory.
The proof is Government Debt is Private Savings. You can’t have the latter without the former.
And it needs to increase regularly.
As it always has.
Douglas’ social credit is universal basic income.
We already got on the road to it with tax credits. It is inevitable if human civilisation is going to progress any further.
It would be better than to have a few billion people on the move in the next 50 years?
Thanks, I will think that “Gov Debt = Private Savings” over.
Thanks fwl, some very positive solution you propose. I think option 4 will not stop the US wanting to buy heavy crude, do you? They will try to pay into some holding fund, come Maduro or Guaido,who seems to be of Portuguese decendence, they’ll try everything to stall and keep control over their payments.
Im trying to prepare for this curve ball by growing some vegetables, not very popular in the favoured South east.
You have made me think there Nevermind. I found a pod cast by St Louis Fed economist Paulina Restrepo Echavarria on stlouisfed.org.
It’s interesting. I hadn’t realised that the majority oil producing countries had defaulted during 1979-2010 eg Argentina, Sudan, Iran, Iraq and Russia (whereas Saudi, UAE, Kazakstan and Oman did not).
Having a lot of oil in the ground may even encourage a country to default because they know they can get through the pariah state years as they have something to sell and international markets will still buy and “they may not suffer at all”. They will obviously suffer reputational risk, but that only effects them if the sale of their oil doesn’t cover their costs and they have to borrow. If they can avoid needing international finance (and special ops!) then default may make sense.
Podcast is called “Oil-producing countries and debt”
Thanks shall look it up fwl.
You wasn’t there, I was there was people of every class and yes. There was a bunch of right wing like you say but at that photo you can watch the state of the clothes or the gaunt faces of some, you can’t see that the shoes of many are rotten like mine are cause I can afford to spend 50000 bolívares for a new pair, less can I spend 25000 repairing the ones I have with holes and more… It’s fine if yiu hate USA if fine if you hate Trump, but don’t yell all around saying that all who back Guaido are rich people with wonderful lifes that don’t know hunger cause that is false sir you don’t amass the quantity of people in this country to match the mobilization of the 23 just with rich people there aren’t that many… At least not in the right wing… But the left wing the camarilla of maduro hahahahaha that’s something different they act like they are kings of the world they never say something good to someone and have even disgust of poor people when they aren’t in front of a camera… Venezuela it’s not in a point when you see if the new present would be left or right, it can be anyone if he or she makes everything better so the only answer is that maduro and his people must be outside my country if USA do that then fine and you someone that don’t live in Venezuela please stop defending something that you don’t know and by the way that meeting was in a rich part not because the poor parts are bad for the meeting but because it’s heavily militarized, I was there I was one of those people and I am neither rich or have a good life.
Good luck with that fairy tale.
Simple question – if Maduro just resigns and calls a general election – how do you know he or some else like him won’t be re-elected?
Hi Robert. With respect, how and why, did you in Venezuela, happen to know about Craig’s site?
Clearly, most of us here don’t know about your country like you do and the problems in it, but the point is that we know about the troublemakers, the warmongers, liars, thieves, evil people in the US govt who deliberately get involved in countries like yours to cause immense suffering and financial damage on countries’ economies.
Thank you, I came to know through Google I like to read different opinions, but this wasn’t something I agree. In that meeting there was a great group of people that don’t have anything.
I am not denying you that them can be part of the problems but we have here an enormous problem of corruption, the government have recognized it and haven’t done anything. Here with money you do whatever you want even killing if that’s what you like because we live in anarchy and that is really sad.
RP
My new Chinese shoes cost £10 and they are superb quality. Why hasn’t Maduro’s policies delivered people shoes when May’s policies has? Craig says it’s because of the socialism.
Others say it’s U.S. interference. In Britain the guy who sells shoes, owns the shop, does the accounts, sweeps the floor etc their families each get £1200 per month family credit for working a nominal 24 hours a week. That’s a massive subsidy which means I get cheap shoes.
Thus we pass the cost of shoes onto our heirs and heiresses.or it just gets money-printed out.
The problem with oil is it attracts criminals and false political slogans. They tap the oil and stop people tapping the oil revenues. Those criminals live in the city of London etc.changing your president doesn’t get rid of them. In fact with the new president come more criminals and more tapping the wealth at source.
Don’t blame your government for the criminals.
We in the UK are responsible for sheltering these vermin. Most of them hang out in our houses of parliament, not yours
I blame pot parties, Maduro is not prepared to be president, he don’t have the maturity to be one, yes I know there are people on both sides I know that also there are wrongdoers just wanting oil and also know that a change of president don’t make everything be better, but at least gives you a new perspective, when something doesn’t work you change the method that’s why we need a change even if that change is from inside the actual government.
Oh and I would love to buy shoes like that because I feel ashamed to work with what I have, but he doesn’t bring shoes from China because he doesn’t want, he brings tanks and more from China but not food or shoes.
I don’t want and don’t support an intervention of anyone, I want to see another Venezuela, where I can buy all my food with my work, where I can buy a pair of shoes without the need to be hungry and sadly the actual government is not developing Venezuela like it should, the rural site is hopeless full with bandits and lazy people without will or resources to farm.
hec, russian senator Igor Morosov agrees to come to Kiev for dueling Berjoza!
Duel! Can you believe it in 21th century!
oh, the reason is here
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/01/the-coup-in-venezuela-must-be-resisted/comment-page-3/#comment-823107
On February 4, at 12:00, near the central entrance of the Verkhovna Rada at the address: Kiev, Mikhail Grushevskogo Street, 5. He has not yet decided on a weapon, he is ready to use both the reins and the shaft.
That is what ukrainian parliamentary answered.
*the word choice reveals that Berijoza referring to as if he is a landowner ready to punish a slave*
Are you anywhere nearby, Tatiyana? To watch the mideaval minotaurs slugging it out?
Thanks for that, its so wrong tha you can only offer a raw smile to such machismo.
just can’t belive it really happens before my eyes, nevermind! I would not call it machismo, it’s just some kind of stupidity! Are they thinking we are back to medieval?
Gosh, these male stupid things! Do they really think their duel can change rus-ukr relations? are they so stupid to never see what is the real reason?
According to the United Nations some 2.3 million Venezuelans (about 7& pf the population) have left Venezuela in the past 2 years. Other estimates place the figure at up to 4 million. The UN also claims that over 1 million of the Venezuelan migrants were suffering from malnutrition.
This would seem to argue against these people constituting the wealthy kleptocrats fleeing socialist justice. Unless of course they are all anorexic and deliberately starving themselves to enhance their own body image.
Sp who can these people be? Clearly supporters of Maduro must conclude that whoever they are they must constitute “fake refugees” Presumably all Maduro supporters will be in favor of the forcible deportation of these people so that they can return to the paradise that is Venezuela.
Are you quoting Di Carlo?
‘DiCarlo later became a career member of the foreign service and has held overseas assignments in U.S. Embassies in Moscow and Oslo. As Director for Democratic Initiatives for the New Independent States, she oversaw an initiative to promote democratization in the former Soviet republic’
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosemary_DiCarlo
Bit of a establishment figure-
Council on Foreign Relations, Member
Women’s Foreign Policy Group (WFPG), Member
Women in International Security (WIIS), Member
International House of New York, Member of the Board of Trustees
Global Cities, Inc., Member of the Advisory Board (since 2015)
Lol – ain’t buying any of your fish on sunday night you loon.
That is fine, but it does not answer the question.
Do you think Venezuelan refugees are “fake refugees!? Do you think they should be rounded up and repatriated to Venezuela?
If not, why not?
Got the links to the refugee camps holding these millions?
Has the UN got people on ground registering, housing and feeding them?
Are we having a red-nose day for them this year?
Loony: If you want to introduce some honesty to your contributions here, would you explain why you’re so excited and concerned about Venezuela – pretending to be so concerned about the people there an’ all – and want to pretend that this is what happens all of a sudden under a socialist administration?
How many UK went and go to eg Spain for a cheaper life…who many-14- millions did UN say live in UK in poverty or near poverty……..its everywhere….
Is that sufficient cause and reason for the most brutal and vulgar imperialist thugs roaming the planet today to overrun the country?
Considering events, this is not a rhetorical question, so considering your argumentative commenting here, you’re finally bound to stop beating around the bush, and to answer that very question.
Loony the liar 27 Jan 2019
“Given that Venezuela has an inflation rate rapidly approaching 10 million percent…”
Not true as you will know.
“Venezuela’s inflation to reach 1 million percent IMF forecasts.”
Bloomberg 23rd July 2018
Let me help you out here.
The thing about hyper inflation is that by necessity it needs to move quickly. It is true that in July last year the IMF predicted inflation of 1 million percent. It is also true that in October last year the IMF updated its research and quoted actual inflation of 1.37 million percent i.e. up by 370,000 percent in the period between July and October.
It is also true that the Venezuelan government have stopped publishing economic indicators and so all forecasts are necessarily prone to error. With this caveat in mind it is also true that current IMF forecasts are for inflation of 10 million percent in 2019.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/imf-sees-venezuela-inflation-at-10-million-per-cent-in-2019/articleshow/66139421.cms
So what we have here are a series of statements that are all true and which can all be evidenced as true, but which nonetheless you describe as lies.
Ask yourself why.
Unfortunately unlike the US UK and Japan they can’t QE their way out of things.
Check out the Swift payment system and you’ll see one the reasons why the Yanks can get away with what they get away with.
A nice injection of cash from China and Russia would be handy too.
The BRICS are working on a system that bypasses Swift and good luck to them.
As usual the ‘ Free ‘ West toadies to a President they don’t even like.
The BBC this morning almost welcomed a Millitary coup.
Well worth the licence fee for insight of that calibre.
One million percent is still rather high don’t you think
Of course it is Alex but I am pointing out the exaggerations used by certain people to make things seem worse than they are.
The fascist Spanish government to set up its very own version of the Scottish Office, to pump out disinformation and propaganda, in an attempt to counter Catalan independence.
No doubt it will be headed up by their own version of Fluffy Mundell.
https://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/govern-espanyol-contracampanya-independentistes-judici_348330_102_amp.html?__twitter_impression=true
It seems the armed forces are still loyal to the democratically elected president Maduro.
“President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, led the 41st Armored Brigade of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) in military activities that took place Saturday at Fort Paramacay while preparing for upcoming military exercises in February.”
“We are preparing the most important exercises in the history of Venezuela, because we are going to demonstrate the military power of an armed force with operational capacity, combat, defense,” said the president who also serves as commander-in-chief of the army.”
“In addition, the Bolivarian leader said that “in order to guarantee peace we have to prepare ourselves: in this world the brave, the courageous are respected, and we have to make people respect the Venezuelan nation’s military power”.
Meanwhile the EU is helping to facilitate the Great Satan’s puppet led coup of Venezuela.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Venezuela-Rejects-EU-Ultimatum-Befitting-Old-Colonial-Powers-20190127-0011.html
Maduro was at the army base to launch the start of a major military exercise, long in the planning, repulsing a hypothetical invasion from Columbia. They are probably the best armed forces in that part of South America, certainly the best armed. Maduro, as with any leader in his position, knows full well that a contented officer class is the way to continuing power.
What is stopping Venezuela defaulting and embarking on financial autarky?
I learnt that word “autarky” from the St Louis Fed economist’s podcast I mentioned above. I thought she had said financial cold turkey, but the transcript shows it to have been autarky and means self sufficient. She was using it when describing how an oil producing state with a load in the ground (which Venezuela has) can sometimes default on its sovereign debts without suffering negative consequences provided it doesn’t need to tap international money markets to survive and get the oil out. It will, as Nevermind pointed out, find buyers. Its not even like going cold turkey.
A coordinated world conspiracy of economic sabotage by the old imperialists against their victims.
https://www.mintpressnews.com/us-led-economic-war-not-socialism-tearing-venezuela-apart/218335/
I’ll leave it to Loony & co to tell you different.
Enjoy.
Dungroanin that article is too simplistic.
US may have appreciated how low oil prices hurt Russia, especially after Crimea, but those low prices also caused major trouble for its own fracking and oil industry especially fracking. Maybe Obama wasn’t listening to the Oil industry for when the US imposed sanctions on Russia they hurt Exxon. Rex Tillerson then head of Exxon spoke with Obama and got nowhere. Apparently the Kremlin was astonished as they had hitherto though that the chair & CEO of Exxon outranked the US President.
Also the idea of the US always indoctrinating its people is somewhat patronising and only partly true.
In America there are always two voices easily available. You can go to a cheapish mid market hotel and get free copies of the dumbed down USA Today or the no punches pulled / tell it as it is because the market needs it WSJ. Yes they may both appear right wing, but the academic argument on Oil Producers and Default (about how oil producers frequently default with no come back if they have got enough in the ground and can manage autarky) was freely available online from the St Louis Fed. Americans provide the data and the arguments. Of course they spin it for the masses – but where does that not happen.
It is a good back ground piece.
Here is a current one on Off-G,
https://off-guardian.org/2019/01/26/mobilize-and-defend-venezuela/
Many comments and further links there, make up your own mind.
Yes it’s shocking and a new ball game for coups and regime changes. Of course something did go wrong in the election last year and the election technology company that provided the polling etc pulled out.
Thinking of what it would mean to default.
If Venezuela reneged on its debts then it would have to default on the $18 it owes to Russia and the $6B it owes to China as well.
Also all Venezuelan elites would need to repatriate oversees funds or risk sequestration when irate creditors looked for recompense. Would they have the balls for this?
“Despite the aggressive oppression of theNational Guard and the Bolivarian Intelligence Service, the Observatory of Social Conflict, a Venezuelan nongovernmental organization, reported there were ongoing protests. Their list of “cacerolazos” included Petare, La Candelaria, La Pastora, La Urbina, La Vega, Lidice, Los Rosales, Macaracuay, Montalban, Perez Bonalde and Catia.” Those are the poorest neighborhoods. The poor is against Maduro as well since they re the one suffering the most.
https://www.local10.com/news/international/protests-continue-in-some-areas-of-venezuela
I have taken the time to talk with a woman from Venezuela who has an EU passport and the reports of hunger and chaos and terror are not lies and agreed that Chavez started off well but Maduro the former bus driver has looked after his own clique.
I have no doubt that she says the truth. Despite of her passport, her gender, or her citizenship.
It only can be the reason of losing all the natural wealth of the country.
So should we really fuel this poverty by intervening and increasing the bloodletting, increasing the financial hardship?
Poor people need food and work, sanctions make it only worse.
We are also loosing the bearing on our own cruelty metted out to over a million of children in Yemen, who for years are living/dying from bombs because we are dependent on the arms industry to sell these weapons to the Saudis.
will we give Riyadh an 8 day ultimatum to stop the bombing unilaterally, or else?
Venezuela is a sovereign state and no foreign intervention will change this.
Shame shame shame on the UN universal nepotists.
The important thing is that if somebody has been elected (and there are no elected leaders without flaws) the purpose of democracy is to uphold the decision of the electorate. Of course this is not how the US sees it.
You have written bullshit. I am a well educated person of the middle class in Caracas. And I can assure you tjat my family and I have passed hunger because we sometimes do not have enough money to purchase food. Medicines like basic antibiotics cannot be found and thank God for not getting ill. You haven’t lived here so you cannot have an opinion on what is going on !!!
@ Enrique January 27, 2019 at 22:35
We believe you! Pull the other one.
As someone who has followed US activity in Latin America since the 1970’s, including a visit to Nicaragua of 3 1/2 months in 1984 during the US’s ‘Contra’ terrorist atrocities, I find your input sickening.
As Craig very cogently points out, the as^ole protesters are very well fed and shod.
If a ‘civil war’ is instigated by the Evil Empire up north, the least the Venezuelan people and armed forces should do is make ass*oles who support US intervention pay with their lives (that includes you, if you are actually a Venezuelan).
@ Enrique January 27, 2019 at 22:35
And P.S., I could sign myself ‘Mexican Pete the Bandit’, or ‘Enrique the Charlatan’, if I was so inclined.
Let’s put it this way – are you happy with previous US meddling, invasions, interventions and support for vile Military Juntas in Latin America, too many to go into?
Do you believe that US Corporations have the right to pillage Latin American countries’ raw materials, backed up by US military and heavyweight support for their proxy Military proxies?
Show us a photo of you and your emaciated family. And a copy of your bank statement (not your Swiss numbered account, just your local Venezuelan (?) one.
As a long time follower of your blog Enrique I was wondering if you would post your views here. I must apologise for Paul Barbara, he’s just exhibiting the blank-faced denialism sadly typical of many regular posters when confronted with anything that challenges their pre-conceived perceptions.
Perhaps if he’s done calling you a liar he might explain how he knows the “as^hole” protestors (he claims to hate everything American but note the spelling!) are well shod when he can’t see their feet.
Mind you with the fuel and spare parts shortages in Venezuela you’d need a good pair of shoes.
I’ve had the pleasure of meeting supporters of ‘Chavismo’ and also the most vituperative opponents of the movement. It’s striking to note that they almost always have different coloured skin.
Like in many ex colonies, the socioeconomic fault lines closely trace those of racial or ethnic divisions. Before Chavez, Venezuala was a quasi-apartheid country, just as in much of South America. The working class or underclass are generally a mix of races, usually including native and african blood. The wealthy capitalized class look very different, and it’s not just the clothes, as Craig observes. They are the descendants of primarily Spanish colonial middle classes from generations previous.
On the whole – and as much as I would like it to be otherwise – it does seem that Maduro and his upper tier of government is running a kleptocracy. It looks as though this culture was inherited from Chavez, and has since worsened. There is also a likelihood of upper tier government officials heavily involved in running cocaine from Colombia.
However, I’m pretty sure that none of the above is an impelling factor in the US and other lackey governments legitimising Gauido- whose unilateral declaration of presidency is risible. It stinks of the CIA and oil… once again.
No good guys in this fight I’m afraid.
GB – you can see the complexity and the forces at play better than many. The situation is repeated across the world and through history.
What can be done? Plenty.
Here is one of the best articles of nous jour by
Nafeez Ahmed.
‘How collective intelligence can change your world, right now
An open source toolkit for self and social transformation’
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/how-collective-intelligence-can-change-your-world-right-now-fcfab215251f
It is worthy of study by all of us.
‘A single individual cannot singlehandedly change the entire system. However, a single individual can act in a way that contributes to and catalyses system change, whether in the near term or, most likely, the longer term.’
Nor in the ongoing racist / and killings of native american women
Maybe there would be ‘ Good Guys ‘.. But for U.S sanctions.. Remember the Iraqi Infanticide..Japan Ect.
What you describe is almost a dictionary definition of human diversity. All major politicians and all forms of media are constantly informing anyone that will listen that diversity is the greatest strength possible.
Given the diversity that exists in Venezuela then it has the greatest possible strength. How then can it be run by kleptocrats and assailed by the CIA and the interests of big oil?
Loony
Diversity. Your special subject. Did you go to monoversity?
I wouldn’t advise thinking about anything beyond national borders. Or even beyond your own navel and even that might be outside the scope of your competence.
Funny thing through, your insides look exactly the same as every other human being’s insides
“Venezuela: All you need to know about the crisis in seven charts:”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46999668
The BBC is blaming the crisis on Maduro but another interpretation is possible. The collapse in oil prices towards the end of 2014 is an alternative explanation.
I think most wars since 1945 have been “justified” by UK/US hatred of Russia, socialism and public ownership. Just a few examples:
1953 Iran – coup against Mohammad Mosaddegh following nationalization of Anglo-Iranian Oil Company
1956 Suez – invasion of Egypt following Nasser’s nationalization of the Suez Canal
2003 invasion of Iraq – allegedly about weapons of mass destruction but more likely because Iraqi oil was in public ownership
2011 Libya – assassination of Muammar Gaddafi. Allegedly in a civil war but with considerable foreign involvement. Libya’s oil was in public ownership.
2011 onwards Syria – Allegedly a civil war but really an attempt at regime change. Syria’s oil is in public ownership.
No. No. No. I can’t go along with your analysis. It is far to simple and contains too many facts. Must try harder…………….
Off topic, but since this relates to you and Julian, Craig;
My source says it was the following Bush CIA British Intelligence Operative, whom I’ve previously named here, who was emailing Roger Stone [and George Papadopoulos]…
https://theintercept.com/2018/05/19/the-fbi-informant-who-monitored-the-trump-campaign-stefan-halper-oversaw-a-cia-spying-operation-in-the-1980-presidential-election/
“As part of this investigation, they [FBI] asked Halper to reach out to two Trump advisers — Page and George Papadopoulos”
https://www.vox.com/2018/5/25/17380212/spygate-trump-russia-spy-stefan-halper-fbi-explained
“Halper met with at least three of then-candidate Donald Trump’s campaign advisers”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/stefan-halper-is-obviously-a-bigger-scandal-than-the-media-want-to-admit
To find out what Wikileaks had. Whom he was also tasked to spy on. And John Podesta was in on it.
Like Halper, Mueller is Bush CIA too.
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/special-counsel-robert-mueller-a-30-year-long-record-of-crimes-corruption-and-treason/
Bush + Halper to get Reagan + Bush elected:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/george-h-w-bush-october-surprise-denials-iran-contra/5661788
Then Bush tried to murder Reagan to take the Presidency:
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2016/01/28/author-roger-stones-latest-conspiracy-theory-george-h-w-bush-behind-reagan-assassination-attempt/
Bush + Mueller covering for his CIA running drugs:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/mar/31/lockerbie.libya
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103_conspiracy_theories#CIA_drug_smuggling
Sadly, I’m only giving you a fraction of what everyone needs to know. Please go watch the Bush funeral service closely for yourself. He was “executed (by gunshot)” for High Treason. Mueller has been indicted for “massive FISA fraud”. That is straight from my source who works for one of the top politicians who was at the funeral.
John Bolton: “It would make a big difference to the US economically if we could have American oil companies invest in and produce the oil in Venezuela. It would be good for Venezuela and the people of the United States.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8av-cPP1uPE&t=6m5s
Ukrainian parlamentary Rabinovich says that Ukraine is unable to pay out its debt to International Monetary Fund.
Lol, arguments!
“Why lent money and at the same time call the Ukrainian authorities the most corrupt in the world? So, you either have share in the business, or you are fools. We cannot pay back the debts that you have piled on us.
You gave $ 90 billion to Poland, and we get only crumbs. You call us an outpost in the fight for democracy, so write these debts off the outpost. If you do not do this, we will have to stop paying.”
Maybe Russia should step in and work toward regime change, in Ukraine and Latvia and other countries that are quickly becoming EU wastelands.
What’s good for the goose, etc.
Everything about this Clip @ Sharon Squassoni – – @ 11:40 mins –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XgX9iam9Cc
Mnnn ..
Have Goldman Sachs moved into Caracas or are they already there as they were in Athens ten years ago?
They arrived, big time.
April 10, 2018 / 8:50 PM / 10 months ago
Amid Venezuela default, Goldman receives ‘hunger bond’ payment: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-goldman/amid-venezuela-default-goldman-receives-hunger-bond-payment-sources-idUSKBN1HH36H
Mr Bolt On, the one with the bristly moustache.
@AmbJohnBolton
12 hours ago
John Bolton Retweeted Secretary Pompeo
The United States is helping to recover a bright future for Venezuela. We’re here to urge all nations to support the democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people as they try to free themselves from former president Maduro’s illegitimate mafia state.
@AmbJohnBolton
Cuba’s support and control over Maduro’s security and paramilitary forces are well known. 1/2
9:02 AM – 27 Jan 2019
@AmbJohnBolton
15 hours ago
Any violence and intimidation against U.S. diplomatic personnel, Venezuela’s democratic leader, Juan Guiado, or the National Assembly itself would represent a grave assault on the rule of law and will be met with a significant response. 2/2
He and Pompeo are a double act on Twitter.
Actually, I’m not at all sure the US will intervene in Venezuela, whatever Bolton says (being a notorious militarist, typical of never having fought himself). An intervention would delegitimise Guaido as a US puppet. According to reports, that does not go down well in Venezuela.
a wee bit O.T
I have been Following Chase Iron Eyes for a couple of years now.. He and many Native Americans were Caged at Standing Rock..For holding Feathers..
Chase Iron Eyes is Back..Thank The Spirits –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x8pbkwBExY
Are there any accurate articles around on the extent to which Venezuela is in default, whether it has also stopped on payments to Russia and China or agreed a suspension and what is happening to its oil revenue. Also it has to renegotiate or pay up the capital on some bonds in 2019: To who when a d how much?
Venezuelan obligations to both Russia and China are settled with oil
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Maduro-Russia-Venezuela-Sign-5B-Deals-To-Boost-Venezuelan-Oil-Production.html
I don’t know what the Chinese are doing with this oil – burning it is a fair guess. Venezuelan oil is heavy oil ad is highly polluting. About 30 years ago the British tried to burn it in Richborough power station – but had to stop when the emissions stripped off all the paint of a nearby park of new cars awaiting local distribution.
If the Chinese are burning this oil then they are disproportionately contributing to emissions. I think you will find that there is a high degree of correlation between support for Venezuela and environmental support. These appear to be two mutually exclusive positions and an honest person would choose between Communism and environmentalism. That this will not happen tells you far more than you need to know about both the morality and the intellect of communists.
Gosh Loony! You go back a long way. To 1992 in fact. I read that Richborough was built to burn coal from the Kent coalfields but you are right about the ‘Orimulsion’ created from Venezuelan oil.
‘Orimulsion is a fuel based on the bitumen from the Orinoco delta in Venezuela. BP Bitor is a joint company involving Venezuela and BP in this country. The bitumen comes from the ground in massive quantities and is mixed with water to make it transportable. The fact that it is mixed with water and is an emulsion causes particular problems when it is burnt in the combustion process to create energy. If the combustion process is not right and if there is a large amount of water with the emissions, will it return to earth more quickly? What other problems could be caused? That is one example of the problems that we face.’
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1992/may/14/orimulsion
Straw was Mr Straw in those days, the MP for Blackburn.
Anyway. Richborough is no more. Demolished in 2012. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-17330952
Yeah — Venezuela desperately needs a a healthy injection of murrkan freedom & d’mocracie
Thanks for link and explanation.
The BBC has been honouring Dmitri Medeleev, the originator of the periodic table, to the accompaniment of Tom Lehrer’s famous song which you can never tire of. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYW50F42ss8
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitri_Mendeleev
Mendeleev, one of 16 children, was taken by his mother from Siberia to St Petersburg for higher education.
His daughter married the poet Alexander Blok shortly before Russian poetry reached its Symbolist apex.
Methinks the intention of Ziump’s plan for Venezuela’s presidency is to divide Russia and China – pain in the bum for NATO to have all their weapons jammed in Syria . Fortunately this hotel and golf course developer has a rather weak grasp on international politics.
Nevertheless he has more clue than May’s cabinet of hedge fund gamblers. I thought bets were restricted to £2. Oh I see. 20 trillion pounds of national UK debt is less than £2.
I wonder whether Robert Prospero noticed that there was another demo on the same day in favour of the government with same number of participants. Also is he aware that although Maduro only seems to have 30% popular approval the opposition has 85% popular disapproval.
There wasn’t the same quantity of people on his meeting, you are being deceived by the government and sadly as a man of left you are too prideful to admit the truth. I live here in Venezuela, I suffer the pain in reality and no I am not a blind supporter of any group. I was formed in an university of the state, I also have supported the government and see each of the worlds that fight in Venezuela, I lived in the rural part of Venezuela for 14 years and have to came to city because it was impossible to work the camps and it’s fault of a bad management of resources, also the state tried to rob the property of my family saying it wasn’t being used or that no one lives there I was there also my brothers and my fathers..
I can show real proof of everything I claim but I don’t think any of you will listen, probably will blindly say that I am a puppet of this or fooled by that…
I don’t have problems with governments like one in Russia, China or Finland, taking some socialist examples but here is not socialism it’s anarchy they had the chance to make the better Venezuela possible and made everything decay, because they wanted money more than anything, worse than the people who was before (people with a big list of horrible things, that I’m well aware of). As I always say, I don’t care if they stay in power if they really fix the things… Oh and I would love to see your pictures of the demo of Maduro and his sea of people (not pictures taken by their propaganda but by someone relative to you on the site or someone in Venezuela) I can upload pictures of the other mobilization taken by me so I can back what I say.
Well, was the property being used or not? And more importantly, was it a lot of property? Some of us are in favour of a redistribution of wealth. Why should the rich keep what they’ve got? They shouldn’t. They should be expropriated.
What’s your basis for concluding “bad management”? You may have been “formed” at university, but I can’t see much logic between the experiences you adduce and the conclusion that you make. What you’re saying is exactly the kind of thing the rich right-wing families said about Lula – oh he didn’t know what he was doing, he wasn’t a “professional”, he was a drunk, he wasn’t a lawyer, the lawyers had to help the left-wing politicians out because the left-wing politicians
didn’t go out whoring in $5000 dollar suits at elite clubs with their bankerswere so ignorant and unprofessional, etc. This is a really gobsmacking view when someone who hasn’t encountered it before first hears it, coming from a bunch of rich scumbag parasites who think they’re the bee’s knees, and whose outlook is stunningly insular. While they tell themselves they represent what’s good and proper, they are itching for the tanks to go and shell the fuck of the government buildings while the demonic wealth-redistributing left still occupies them, and then for fascist soldiers to round any objectors up in football stadiums before “disappearing” them. By “bad management” you mean “too many resources allocated to social reform”, don’t you?I suppose the old political-military wisdom that dual power cannot last applies even in Venezuela where Hugo Chavez tore up the rulebook and it lasted for an unprecedentedly long time.
The lands was in use we live there and eat from it, families also depend on what that land make we even let people use part of the land to sow what they want without taxes even use machinery. But the government wanted to keep the property not to reallocate the land but to their own luxury, the president INTI (the Institute of Lands) wanted to keep the land for him, he demanded us without sending an advice or even an alert.
We counter demanded and in the end we sold everything and the bare minimum, the one who acquired the property ended paying a lot to the president of the Institute to keep the property. We did go to every power with proof and always get the same response “we will do something, you will be safe” and was fake the government protects their corrupts.
I am not a rich and never have been one, and no, I am not claiming without sense like you say. I can send proof of everything I say, what can you send about the meeting of the president? What can you demonstrate on their favor that it’s not from their pages or news sources? You attack me like people with fundaments or knowledge do.
He is not prepared because he doesn’t even know the geography of the country, he doesn’t even know how to distribute a wage and don’t even know how many lands Venezuela owns you can watch him on his propaganda yelling that he will distribute lands, opportunities for people and locals to open stores and more. At the end of the day is all fake I have tried to apply to many things I have written essays and suggestions for them just to be ignored.
I have always been someone who likes to help people with whatever I can, you need medicine and I have it? Then I give it to you for free because we are all human beings.
Don’t just agree with someone just because it declares that thinks like you, and don’t accuse people of being on some mold if you don’t suffer the problems of their is easy to give your point of view when you have your meals and don’t have to juggle with your salary, I almost don’t eat meat for example because I can’t.
Also someone is not prepared to govern when they impose a control over goods prices just like that, he says chicken cost 5000 Bolivars and just like that it will cost that… That’s not how market runs and you must know it, you can’t control prices in that form you need to create a offer and demand, also they maintained an irreal value for the US dollars that was locked for medicine and more, but in reality was used by people to amass gigantic fortunes out of illegal exchanges you buy 1$ for 10 BSF (the old money) and then they resell that 1$ for 1000000 BSF and no one have paid for that crime.
I can send a bunch of pictures of the luxury vehicles inside ministries, in restaurants, I can show how bad we are that people eat from garbage bins while maduro gets fatter and fatter but you will always win in your mind because you don’t want to debate about the situation of Venezuela you want to debate about this government being good because they are socialist.
Are you one of those fifth columnists we hear so much about?
No, I am not from any sort of press. I am a normal Venezuelan who wants to live without needing to struggle even to repair my shoes. Also I am well aware that there are a lot of vultures that’s true, but my initial claim just simply was to say that the article is incorrect. On that meeting where a lot of people that don’t have anything to eat that where crying for desperation and see this as a change, but people jump to defend the government without being here to watch the actual a problems, I will just say come here and see for yourselves if this is good or if it’s bad.
I am not a man of the left and not prideful(sic), Your assumptions make the rest of your analysis doubtful.
Sorry for that then, I didn’t wanted to englobe you on a wing. Now you say my claims are doubtful just for saying that? I just ask you to show me a proof that he had the same amount of people, I was well aware that he was on his own manifestation, also the point of reunion for said manifestation was pretty close to the one of Guaido (you can search it on Google maps, plaza Brion, chacaito Venezuela) and for the other (Use as reference salud chacao Venezuela). I Suffer on daily basis the problems that this government have bring, you can do a little search and will found a bunch of corruption, you can even visit Venezuela a week and we will see if your posture remains.
You are wasting your time. These people know everything there is to know about Venezuela. Venezuela is perfect, it is a paradise – and anyone that says different is an agent of the US. If just one person somewhere has a less than perfect experience in Venezuela then it is because they have been attacked by US agents.
There is not one chance in a million that any of the people who know everything about Venezuela will ever visit the country. In their eyes being exposed to reality is to embrace fundamental ignorance.
To paraphrase an old Cuban slogan “Defenderan la revolucion hasta la ultima gota de tu sangre” When you are dead then you will be smeared as a capitalist lackey or reactionary. It is this line of thinking that is highly praised for its inclusiveness and tolerance. Learning English today is harder than it has ever been as words now mean the opposite of what they once did.
I would agree that living conditions for most are bad. (Not the middle classes who support the young pretender who is being pushed by US). However why wouldn’t they be after the sanctions imposed by US. The point remains that the opposition have little support. Why not put your efforts into opposing US imperial interventions.
I have nothing to add to politics.co.uk’s Ian Dunt’s tweet from last week:
Ah, so I see that parts of the British left still think it’s OK for Latinos to be butchered by a tyrant as long as he calls himself a socialist.
Correction, it turns out I do have something to add. It turns out that last year he already wrote a smart and nuanced piece on Venezuela:
Events in Venezuela are covered in the British press as if we were football supporters backing our respective side. The left promoted Hugo Chavez, so now it either keeps silent or, worse, repeats government propaganda. The right wants to use Venezuela to show how flawed the left’s moral judgement is and how it would act in power in Britain.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/dogmatic-political-allegiances-are-clouding-our-judgement-on-venezuela-we-must-resist-them
If this is the level of your thinking on Venezuela, probably best to keep your ‘nuance’ to yourself.
Meanwhile, Abrams. Eat your fill.:
https://charlierose.com/videos/18183
The same nonsense he and every other Neocon trotted out to justify regime change in Iraq and Libya, in other words. How stupid must you be to think anyone believes you care about people in these countries?
News on ISIS appear in russian media:
40 senior Daesh prisoners broke out of a Taliban prison in northwest Afghanistan after US troops helped them escape through a covert operation
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/01/27/1932151/us-caught-helping-isis-commanders-escape-from-taliban-prison-in-afghanistan
Igor Zubov, deputy minister of inner affairs of Russia in Kazan, Tatarstan says:
ISIS groups are massively transferred from the territory of Pakistan to the border of Tajikistan, by unknown helicopters, in the direction of the southern borders of Russia.
https://ria.ru/20190128/1550012988.html
Yes, the Americans broke ISIS prisoners out of a prison in Afghanistan (!). That definitely happened…
Why not? Da’ish is a Saudi creation. Are Saudi and the US now enemies?
Never mind, Martinned has created his own comfy prison.
detailed article here
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/01/27/1932495/us-caught-helping-isis-commanders-escape-from-taliban-prison-in-afghanistan-video
This morning I read a Tory twit’s opinion that since Britain imports “only” 30% of the food it consumes from outside the EU and it exports 10% of the food it produces, the country should be OK for food because those figures mean that the food supply will fall by “only” 20%. Perhaps he thinks everybody will just buy 80% of the food that we used to buy, and that all our plates will “only” be a fifth empty. Tories are fervent worshippers of “the economy”, but this kind of thinking shows a dire lack of understanding of what it is that they actually worship. (It also shows a lack of grasp of what
the Church of MalthusToryism is all about, but never mind that for the moment.)Let me sum it up:
* distribution is TIGHT – in food and in most other goods too – and if you think the market is your saviour you are a moron;
* on the above assumptions (stop exports, forget about importing from EU27), the fall would be more than 20%, owing to the drop in the labour supply from the continent and other economic consequences;
* even a fall of 20% would mean major food shortages in some areas;
* people WILL panic; we will NOT think “it’s only baked beans that have run out, so we’ll buy a tin of something else instead, and there’s no need for us to hoard”; we will think “this is IT; fill those trolleys”;
* shelves don’t run bare slowly; they run bare fast – and in supermarkets there will be many cases of violence.
And…
* expect some serious big-time wackiness, surpassing the Angels of Mons.