Our obsequious media is actively perpetuating the myth that the monarch can do no wrong, and is apolitical. In fact the monarchy has been active and absolutely central to the seizure of power from the Westminster parliament in a right wing coup. Yesterday’s collaboration at Balmoral between the Queen and Jacob Rees Mogg is only the latest phase.
The monarch appoints the UK Prime Minister. The convention is that this must be the person who can command the support of the majority in the House of Commons. That does not necessarily have to be from a single party, it can be via a coalition or pact with other parties, but the essential point, established since Hanoverian times, is that the individual must have a majority in the Commons.
The very appointment of Boris Johnson by Elizabeth Saxe Coburg Gotha was a constitutional outrage. Johnson may have been selected by Conservative Party members, but that is not the qualification to be PM. Johnson very plainly did not command a majority in the House of Commons, proven by the fact that still at no stage has he demonstrated that he does. I do not write merely with hindsight.
Johnson’s flagship policy was always No Deal Brexit. Contrary to the monarchist propaganda spewed out across the entire MSM, not only is it untrue that the Queen had “no constitutional choice” but to appoint Johnson, the Queen had a clear constitutional duty not to appoint a Prime Minister whose flagship policy had already been specifically voted down time and again by the House of Commons.
The Queen has now doubled down on this original outrage by proroguing the Westminster parliament in conspiracy with old Etonians Rees Mogg and Johnson, specifically so that the House of Commons cannot vote down Johnson.
The monarchy will always be an extremely useful institution in promoting the political aims of the upper classes, not least because of the ludicrous media promulgation of its infallibility. When you have former Prime Minister John Major, senior Tories like Philip Hammond and Michael Heseltine, and the Speaker of the House of Commons himself all talking of “consitutional outrage”, it is plainly preposterous to insist that the monarchy cannot, by definition, have done anything wrong.
The Queen has appointed a Prime Minister who does not have the support of the House of Commons and then has conspired to prevent the House of Commons from obstructing her Prime Minister. That is not the action of a politically neutral monarchy. The institution should have been abolished decades ago. I do hope that all those who recognise the constitutional outrage, will acknowledge the role of the monarchy and that the institution needs to be swiftly abolished.
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Interesting that Dominic Cummings himself claims that a second referendum (and he infers all referendums) will not be about the EU as such, but about “you and your parties”.
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/27/on-the-referendum-24n-actions-have-consequences/
(March 27 2019)
These guys didn’t learn from the 2004 referendum before 2016 and even now very few seem to realise that a ‘second referendum’ would, given minimal competence from ‘Leave’, be a mega-repeat of 2004 in which ‘the EU’ would not even be the main issue.
Remember: we won the 2004 referendum after starting 60-40 behind with no money, no digital campaign, no ground campaign, every force in the North East hostile, and with the campaign consisting of not much more than my girlfriend, dad, uncle and literally a handful of people. I think we spent ~£50-100k. We won 80-20. (It was a training exercise that turned out surprisingly well.) SW1 ~100% ignored it, thankfully. The intricacies of the Regional Assembly were not central to how the campaign developed, just as the EU will not be central to a second referendum — it will be about YOU AND YOUR PARTIES, dear MPs, and if you think 2016 was bad, you will find the next one somewhere between intolerable and career-ending.
They didn’t learn from expenses or from 2008. They didn’t learn from Vote Leave. They need more than one lesson and they’re gonna get more than one lesson…
Aside from the fact that I find Cummings’ blog very odd indeed, I believe that what he says is correct about most referendums. They are never simply about the question on the ballot itself, except perhaps when they are held simultaneously with a general election.
But this claim is astounding in that all Brexiteer claims of “the will of the people” (to leave the EU) are demolished by the arch-Brexiteer himself, Dominic Cummings.
With regard to Tony Scoundrel Blair’s suggestion that Labour should seek a referendum rather than a general election, I think it is probably folly. In my opinion, the main problem now is to get rid of the current unelected ultra-capitalist government that has seized power in the UK.
There is an obvious way forward regarding Brexit, the UK can simply stay in the customs union. There are great advantages to this for the UK’s economy. It would address concerns about freedom of movement (even if the concerns are mostly imagined). And it would solve the Irish and Gibraltar border problems (and a probable future problem with a Scottish border). The withdrawal agreement would only need to be amended to set the “backstop” (which actually is the UK remaining in the CU) working permanently from day 1 after Brexit.
I think Tony Blair’s proposal relates to blocking giving Cummings/Johnson an imminent General Election in any haste, because their longer term intentions are 100pc contingent upon crushing Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party in the next General Election in order to get a working majority. This is predicated by military grade precision timing. I think Tony Blair is right. The current shenanigans in No.10 and Parliament is not primarily about the EU, it is about the Cummings/Johnson wing of the Conservative Party crushing the Brexit Party vote and pressganging the rest of the Tories into their way of thinking.
The crushing of the Brexit Party can only happen if Nigel Farage’s unique agenda of a NoDeal exit is achieved or perceived to have been achieved already by Cummings/Johnson. Granting Cummings/Johnson their General Election on these terms, on their timing schedule and with this expectation prematurely will enable the right-wing coup to achieve escape velocity.
As it stands, seen coolly from a sensible distance the Cummings/Johnson gun has empty barrels and no bullets because of simple arithmetic of numbers in the House. With the Harrington retirement Johnson has zero majority, and his DUP support is hardly wholly reliable and certainly distasteful. HM Opposition should not be in the business of enablng this right-wing coup.
Worthy of Shakespeare.
I agree that Cummings’ claim can be used in reverse. That a second referendum could be actually about Johnson’s government. And I agree that until an actual hard Brexit happens, many people simply won’t believe the consequences and will vote on sentiment rather than reason.
Without a strong and united Labour party with a strong leader (Corbyn as nice as he is, somehow isn’t) all options are probably bad.
Cynically, perhaps the best thing is for Corbyn to try and preserve as much parliamentary democracy as he can and launch a counter attack at a moment of his choosing when a no-deal crisis is already underway. But in this case, he should not (or only weakly) seek a second referendum. He could try to force the UK to be in a Customs Union. This would certainly enrage the Faragists, but how would that play out?
What is missing is a strong Labour leader with a party united behind her/him.
As I said in a previous comment, I am increasingly pessimistic about the UK’s situation by the day.
I agree completely.
One serious Achilles’ Heel in Cummings/Johnson strategy remains the Irish border question which is still anything but addressed. Today’s Guardian runs a piece on a leaked government report on the absence of feasible solutions. Then what is the position with Stormont and devolved government of N. Ireland?
No.10 can keep banging on as much as it likes that it doesn’t want any border in Ireland, but an immediate consequence of Cumming/Johnson NoDeal overnight is that there will be a border between the UK and the EU on the island of Ireland – unilaterally imposed by Johnson. Totally impracticable and totally non-compliant with the Good Friday Agreement which has kept the peace for decades.
Maybe Ireland feels a long way away from Westminster and No.10 doesn’t care much when Farage and rebels like Hammond are much more of an immediate aggravation.
In NI polling 58.4% are content with the concept of Customs posts at Belfast and Larne. Of the 18 NI seats Unionists currently hold 11. If a snap election were held some Remain constituencies (Belfast North, Belfast South together with North Down) are vulnerable to a SDLP / Alliance pact. That would give a Nationalist majority (10 seats) at Westminster for the first time. The Conservative / Brexit Party, non-aggression pact would sweep England, Johnson would get his outright majority and a solution to the NI backstop.
Tony T12
That special place in hell has a phosphor furnace for followers of Bismarck and bullshitters from balliol and bullingdon.
But us oldtimers who got microwaved by the rabid foaming laser of Thatcher, have been annealed by intense Tory tripe and lived.
Boris is like one of those meteors that come close to our planet every 40 years.
Bin there, still got the T shirt
I think Blair is simplistic. Assuming Corbyn can be seen by his supporters as even hearing what Blair says – after Blair has spent the last three years sabotaging, smearing and insulting Corbyn and Old Labour – there are more ways to skin a cat than a tumble-dryer full of broken glass, and I’m certain Cummings has them in mind. It’s a measure of Blair’s desperation that he is giving what he sees as helpful – if completely unwanted – advice to Corbyn.
I would not trust Blair as far as I could throw him.
It doesn’t matter what you opinion of Blair is. The question is does his argument have a point. And, unfortunately, it does. Johnson’s big gamble could well be that he could beat Corbyn in an election, and then cement the hard/alt-right axis he and Cummings are allied to, and whose interests they represent.
And there is a very real possibility that he could win a GE, astonishing though that might seem. Thanks to the skewed, unrepresentative system we have, and the terrible weakness of Corbyn and his horribly complacent inner circle, he only needs a third of population to back him. And if you think that Vote Leave was full of dirty tricks, illegal funding, dark money and massive manipulation of voters and data – which it was – then you haven’t seen anything yet. All those now tried and tested techniques will be deployed with a massive war chest.
Labour have shown no sign whatsoever of even understanding how politics and voting have changed, and been corrupted in the last decade, and still seem to have this naive idea that we can go to the polls like we did in the 70’s, all innocent and vote on arguments and policies. Coupled with a leader, however well-meaning and sincere, who has no traction with the kind of people he needs to convert to his cause, no credible media strategy, a feeble unconvincing mien – sorry he will get trampled by people far more ruthless, mendacious and skilled than he is.
The absolute best he can hope for is a hung parliament, and Labour have shown little sign of being adept at building alliances or coalitions.
That is what Johnson, and Blair, see. And, horrifically, they may well be right.
I agree: “he (Corbyn) will get trampled by people far more ruthless, mendacious and skilled than he is.”
What have we come to, politically, when it matters more what a person looks like is more important than his party’s policies?
Minds aren’t just the parroty bits at the top. Brexit has very little to do with the EU. Cummings’s writing syle is rubbish, but he groks that fact very well indeed. Clearly in terms of trade it has a lot to do with the EU but that’s not what I mean. I mean in how Brexit functions as a meme (in the grownup people’s sense of that term) inside Britain.
A good way in to grasping this is to realise that the number of people who were genuinely concerned or angry about Britain’s EU membership because their intellects told them it was the cause of unwanted conditions in their lives was very small. When you get a person who is thumping the table and screaming like a banshee about an issue that hardly affects them, you have to ask WTF they are really angry about. Politics in the mass epoch is about crowds and emotions but if everybody were honest and everybody’s intellect dominated their egos (haha), then there is one man’s image that Brexiteers would carry on all their banners, and that man is Enoch Powell. Their favourite film would be King Kong. This was almost out in the open when the Leave campaign declared that a vote for Remain was a vote for tens of millions of Turks coming here – and the image was of a large group of male Turks of course, with trousers bulging. The image was of the whole of urban Britain becoming a Rotherham.
It was amazing to watch the shrewd Peter Mandelson go to pieces on this – almost literally. I am sure he would agree with what I just wrote. And he said Leave has got immigration but that’s all they’ve got, and Remain has got everything else. Well that’s how you lose a war. You can’t win against the enemy brand like that. What Remain should have done, given that no preparatory work had been done to sell the EU in Britain in the 40 years leading up to “Dave’s Deal” in February 2016, was first they should have called themselves “Stay”, and second they should have painted Leavers in their true colours. They should have taken the fight to the enemy. “You want to sneak down to the polling station and put an X against ‘Leave’ because you’re too dishonest to put on your white hood? OK well do it, but we all know you’re dimwitted dishonest filth – and you know it about yourself too.”
Dominic Cummings’s head has John Boyd’s management piffle blaring out in it rather like the Wizard’s voice in L Frank Baum’s Wizard of Oz. I suspect Norman Stone put it there. John Boyd was a fighter pilot and a theorist of fighter pilotry. He univeralised an atttitude to society and evolution based on being a fighter pilot. I am not making this up. So when Cummings says “We control the date” in order to suggest that if a general election is called it will be for after Britain has left the EU on 31 October, the thing to notice is that he appears to telegraphing his planned action to the enemy a considerable time ahead. Cummings is a nutcase and a thug, and he is nowhere near as intelligent as he thinks he is, but he is not so stupid as to make such an elementary mistake.
Another premise I want to bring in is that the MSM, including the BBC, is going all out on how Jeremy Corbyn supposedly doesn’t know where he’s going, vacillates, isn’t clear, dodges questions, and so on, when in fact all of that is total crap and if you read what Corbyn says it is quite clear and firm. The whole way he is being presented has Tory Central Office written all over it. Insofar as Tories own this country this is what you might expect, but it has been ramped up and all of the political editors are following the tune with such fervour that it is clear that the announcement of a plebiscite is imminent.
Then look at what Gus O’Donnell, former cabinet secretary has said. He has said that the EU Council will come up with something late during their meeting of Thursday-Friday 17-18 October, possibly in the early hours of Saturday 19 October. That’s not a stupendously original assertion because everyone knows that that’s how things work in high-level talks at the EU, but he is nonetheless right.
My guess is that a general election will be held on 17 or 24 October – and probably on 17 October so that it can be sold as white Britain’s big day for standing up to the foreigners at the very same moment that foreigners – with their foreign deference hierarchies that are so foreign to the British one based on private schools, posh accents, and “obvious” inherited
entitlement,skill and safe hands – dare to talk with arrogance and confidence about what baby Britain should do! About what baby Britain’s options are! And in some foreign city in the foreign continent of Europe, as if they owned this country!Ringwing coup bad, Leftwing coup good? The UK has its XR and similar clubs are being erected through out the West. Canada’s David Suzuki just endorsed the voting age to be lowered from 18 to 8 because of imminent climate change : https://davidsuzuki.org/story/let-the-children-vote/
I’m thinking of the numbers 18 and 88.
David Suzuki calls it “disgusting” that Canada has allowed so much immigration, and declares “Canada is full”.
I can’t see a single major “news” outlet covering the Roger Waters announcement of his performance, Someone from an iconic & hugely loved band in the UK. But again, that’s by the people…
Try searching his name, see what comes up.
I may disagree with Craig in order highlight issues I see regarding indy & am guilty oversimplify to make opposing points that don’t help much…. But I do agree with that fear is used & people should not give into it.
The establishment are heavily invested in “Us & Them” Always have been. They don’t care about killing, about cold murder. They would lead us to the ends of the earth if we let them.
No joke.
They are already destroying Earth itself.
I know. All they seem to care about is money & position, in actions. (excluding whatever rhetoric) …Something critical is missing in them, not living or alive. & they are the ones who hold themselves above others ?
This disconnect. Just go along, do your job, get paid, snub the poor & perhaps invest in people wiping out the rainforest & killing indigenous tribes.
Imo people should boycott any recourse used from there from this kind of treatment, including new guitars. The “free” market is clearly a crazy way to organise society at a fundamental level. Though it’s a myth that it is of course, or could be.
in order to*
We should expected the unexpected this week. The remainer alliance is going to try and scupper Brexit again by hijacking Parliament. On a more serious level, they’re trying to kill democracy by democratic means. So far, so predictable.
Where it becomes unpredictable and potentially dangerous is in the response of Boris to all this. Men are at their most destructive when they know they are right.
Cummings strikes me as a rational animal, someone who would argue for the path of least resistance.
Time to phone a friend, ask the audience, or go 50/50.
Quite a lot of toleration of unconstitutional action there.
A what?
Where?
LaGuerre, you’re right about that. But it can’t last forever so I’m trying to see where it’s likely to burst.
All of this reflects a split in the highest echelons of society. At that level anything goes, so it’s difficult to predict.
‘There’ of course referred to your comment, in case you were in any doubt.
In that case your point makes little sense. The word “toleration” is value-laden too and I gave up values like a bad habit years ago.
Beyond good and evil, eh, Hatuey?
How odd that a godless Marxist wishes to discuss good and evil.
“Time to phone a friend, ask the audience, or go 50/50.”
Lets ask Jeremy 🙂
Actually, I was thinking he should phone Nicola. If you look at the breakdown of numbers in Parliament, SNP MPs ought to hold the balance of power. It’s possible just abstaining might be enough.
Cummings will have seen this already and argued for making that call.
Interesting article on Cunning’s beliefs to be found here:
Number 10 refuses to engage with questions about Cummings’ ‘chillingly eugenicist’ comments
https://skwawkbox.org/2019/09/01/number-10-refuses-to-engage-with-questions-about-cummings-chillingly-eugenicist-comments/
“[W]e won’t be offering any comment” on praise of Nietzsche, comments linking wealth and class to better genes and description of greater access to education and knowledge as ‘a danger’
Brexiters, of course, will shrug this off.
Considering that Cummings is held out to be the power behind Johnson and the Tory clique who support him, we don’t hear or see much of him.
This is his father of his father-in law – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Edward_Wakefield,_1st_Baronet
Cummings himself comes from Co Durham. His father was an oil rig project manager and his mother a special needs teacher.
Here he is on a green bench behind Johnson sprawled out on the front bench.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2019/sep/01/ben-jennings-on-boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-and-tory-rebels-cartoon
Personally, I think Johnson and Cummings have gone too far the last couple of days, and they will provoke a considerable resistance among Tories. First Gove’s refusal to deny their willingness to ignore voted law, then the threat to deselect well-reputed long-standing Tories, turning the party into what will be essentially a second Brexit Party. A lot of Tories won’t like that.
OK it’s intended to provoke an election, perhaps. I think we can exclude one *after* Brexit Day, although lots still talk about how they just have to get over the line, and all will be fine. It won’t. Considerable disruption is inevitable under any circumstances, deal or no. The public won’t be in any mood to vote in Johnson for months, next year at least. That leaves an election before Halloween. All very chancy and last minute, if that is the plan. More like desperation. I don’t think things are going very well for Cummings and Johnson, on the evidence of the last couple of days. Harsh extreme measures, and Cummings’ outburst of anger with Khan, are not good signs.
I agree with you, Laguerre. Johnson and Cummings have badly misjudged the mood of the public and have ended up discrediting themselves only a few weeks into Johnson’s premiership.
“Gove’s refusal to deny their willingness to ignore voted law…”
The most unconstitutional and unprecedented aspect of all this that we’ve seen was declaration that ordinary MPs could act as the government and introduce laws, etc. With that the British constitution was basically torn up.
If you were teaching politics today, you’d have a very difficult time trying to explain how royal prerogative and powers of the prime minister work. In fact, it would be impossible.
About 200 million books on British politics and the functioning of parliament were sent to landfill with this development.
That non-governmental members of parliament can introduce legislation is hardly unconstitutional, let alone illegal; it’s allowed for in the procedure. Besides, it’s why Brexiters criticise the European Parliament, because ordinary members can’t introduce legislation, so they can hardly complain about members of the HoC introducing legislation (personally I do think members of the EP should be able to introduce bills, and I think that may happen in the future).
Oh yeah, and I think revision of the British constitution is inevitable. Things can’t go on like this.
Laguerre, Hatuey: thank you for your interesting contributions to this discussion. I may differ from you in that I haven’t seen anything in Britain worthy of the term ‘constitution’. There is just a untidy heap of unwritten conventions, with bits of legislation tacked on. There seems to be no agreement on where royal prerogative ends and parliamentary supremacy begins. That may not matter as long as everybody plays the game according to the same informal rules, but the system is vulnerable to exploitation by an unscrupulous would-be tyrant. How far are ‘il Duce’ and ‘the Mekon’ prepared to stretch the rules to suit their ambitions?
Coldfish, the British constitution exists in convention, statute, and precedent. These are undoubtedly slabs of steaming manure piled one on top of the other but that’s all we have. Quite a lot of things in the world are like that, dependant upon a sort of etiquette, acceptance of norms and vague traditions.
None of that is an excuse for trashing the system. And I think the development I have given emphasis to above trashes the system more than anything that anybody on the Leave side has done.
It is unconstitutional. It also violates the idea and principle of separation of powers. And it’s unprecedented.
British constitutional theory distinguishes between the executive (the government and crown), the legislature (parliament), and the judiciary. That’s now destroyed.
I agree that it’s s pile of crap but if a bunch of MPs can ride roughshod over that because they don’t like the result of an election or referendum, we don’t have any semblance of democracy.
If Scotland achieves independence some day through a referendum, is it going to be overturned?
When unprincipled butchers like Blair are on your side, you’re not allowed to pretend you have the moral high ground.
Who’s talking about moral high ground? It’s an issue of realism. The last weeks have shown that all those elaborately worked out lectures on the principles of the British constitution that we all learnt about when young, are worthless, as there are no sanctions if you ignore them. That is what Johnson and Cummings have shown. Private members (who can introduce bills, by the way), have been forced into doing the same.
LaGuerre, you know that’s an extremely contentious description of events and their order.
It’s enough that you have said it though, without any further need to explain where it’s wrong.
Calling for an election before 31 October says “We’re controlling the pace of events here”.
This is why MSM journalists are pushing the idea that Labour is divided and question-dodgy and shifty about whether they want an election or not. That’s Downing Street and Tory Central Office propaganda if ever I’ve heard it.
See my post above.
Labour will be portrayed as “Er er er, well yeah, let’s have an election then – we’ll support your motion”. In actual fact, Jeremy Corbyn has been calling for a considerable time for a general election, and the Tory response has been “That’s not in the national interest, and don’t even think of contradicting us, because what do you know about the national interest?”
What do you reckon, @Laguerre – 17 October, 24 October?
I think the 17th, because the Leave side can tell its moronic voters that they’re taking control and thumbing their noses towards the foreigners who are gathering at the EU Council meeting in the iconically foreign city of Brussels on that day.
Wisdom all the way from the safe distance of New Zealand.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1909/S00001/gordon-campbell-on-ensuring-boris-gets-blamed-for-brexit.htm
At this advanced stage time-wise, maybe we should just let Cummings/Johnson get on with their “cunning plan” of NoDeal as Baldrick would term it. Let the political equivalent of the alcoholic with cirrhosis of the liver buy and glug down another case of Scotch, if he/she refuses to listen to advice. Boris is determined to do things his way and I am losing interest in coping with any more adrenaline in my system worrying about it. A landslide election for Boris is the last thing we need – even worse than NoDeal.
Media talk of a Tory landslide is even more deluded now than it was in 2017. They will almost certainly lose their ten seats in Scotland along with many of their marginal seats in the southeast. It’s just the same old propaganda and bluff from the same old tame journalists.
If Boris scores with Brexit, he would probably win with a majority. The Brexit party votes go straight to him and on the Remain side there’s nothing but division and disarray.
Not after Brexit Day. The disruption will prevent that, until next spring at least.
Best get onto your mates in Calais’ customs offices if you want the disruption to be anywhere near the apocalyptic levels described in the media. Those guys working ‘to rule’ (which tells you quite a lot about how the day to day operations function in 2 words) is about the only way you’re going to realise the miles of HGV’s on the motorway (in France, no less) that remainers seem to be actively hoping for.
As a seemingly necessary caveat these days – as a left wing life long former labour voter, it brings me zero joy to find myself in league with hardcore tories, but the media’s done such a successful job of dividing people along ideological lines that understanding how to best advance your interests these days is like trying to play 8 dimensional chess against an opponent who’s 3 moves ahead and reserves the right to cancel the game at any moment.
Northern
I didn’t claim that disruption would be apocalyptic, as you claim, but it will be enough to annoy the electorate (see my 10.16). Being a northerner, no doubt you don’t know the Dover-Calais crossing. If you did, you wouldn’t have made your comment. Ignorance of the realities of trade is very common among Brexiters.
No, I work in shipping and freight. I deal with the Dover-Calais border every single day and have done for the last decade. Ignorance of the realities of trade is very common among people who are arrogant enough to think that they understand complex systems they don’t have experience of. Please try and deflate your head a little, you’re all over this thread making absolutist statements about stuff you obviously don’t quite understand, it just makes you look foolish.
For the record, I’m yet to see even ONE article that accurately depicts the realities of transport through Dover-Calais. The media is actively promoting the misconception that we physically examine even 1% of the freight traffic that enters the UK on a daily basis, and the further falsehood that leaving the EU means we must suddenly pull up the draw bridge and all traffic grinds to a halt while we examine goods now subject to regulation. The only people who’d issue such a directive is the UK government, which would have no incentive to do so? So unless the Tories are trying an innovative new form of siege warfare, its a somewhat irrelevant red herring. The reality is customs work around the edges, examining a small percentage of the freight by people who voluntarily comply with the regulations and performing otherwise random searches looking for contraband, so the addition of new items under customs control doesn’t necessarily have to extrapolate to longer checks at the border in the majority of circumstances.
French customs would be the only other institution with the power to cause considerable disruption in the supply chain (as seen last year during their ‘work to rule’ strike over pay), but such disruption DEFINITELY has a more negative impact on France than it does the UK given the tailbacks form in France, so would be a bit of a short sighted hand to play from their perspective.
The possibility of disruption has been massively over inflated to increase the fear and polarisation amongst the general public, and handily sell a few newspapers, no doubt.
Well said, northerner. I don’t really mind their hypocrisy and short-sighted vandalism, it’s the sneering tone that gets me.
At the core of the Remain argument is the assumption that people are thick, too thick to take part in democracy.
Well, glad to hear you have detailed knowledge. I quite agree that customs men aren’t going to examine much in detail – it isn’t possible. The problem is the pages and pages of customs documents to fill out, and the time taken when they get it wrong, which I understand to be around 30% of the time. And then look at the situation in Dover, where the containers are already piled up high in the very restricted space available (Calais, being open and flat, is much better off). I’m afraid your knowledge is not going to convince me that all is going to go well, just because British is better, when it doesn’t on all other frontiers of the world. I’ve seen far too many, and thirty hour waits for trucks are all too common.
Laguerre
Do you mean “Trailers” rather than “Containers” when you talk about them piling up?
If not – as I’m sure Northerner knows – Dover is not a container port (lift on/lift off), it is a ferry port – roll on/roll off ie LGVs/trailers.
And why this obsession with Dover – the extensive RoRo services from the continent to the Humber, the Tees and the Tyne are far more relevant to the North of England and Scotland than Dover, even traffic for the south is more widely distributed than you think – through Tilbury in particular – the largest multi-modal port in the UK.
Galt
Well, the last time I passed through Dover on the ferry (last year), there were lots and lots of containers, far more than trucks. I suppose more economical not to ship a truck in the ferry.
“And why this obsession with Dover” Well, 10,000 trucks a day. Yes of course there are other RoRo routes, but they’re very significantly longer and more expensive, with the obvious consequences for turn-round times. There were even phantom ferries organised by Grayling. The whole thing is going to slow down, and clog up. In a month or less, with panic measures, yes they’ll get things working again at a slower rate, but car and other manufacturers for example aren’t going to be happy at the extra expense, so they’ll slope off and build their new factories elsewhere, and all the rest that you know about.
Good points. But I think there is some distinction to be made between conventions of election & referendums. Depending on why they are set also.
Those who did fight for the vote ? The democratic weight that holds is not the same as random “simple choices’ they throw at us. This equivalence is false & it was/is about being able to change the government. We hardly ever have referendums & imo bringing the vote had ZERO democratic process involved & was a totally totalitarian act. ….
This is part of the issue, if things are not driven by & for the community, & shaped by them, it’s a disaster…. Over & over agin we see it.
The Tories currently have 13 MPs in Scotland. Projections based on averaging recent (small) YouGov sub-samples have the Tories retaining only 2 seats (presumably Mundel and Jack). In the current circumstances I wouldn’t rule out total wipeout for Tories in Scotland.
In a U.K. perspective I don’t think this matters a jot, a Tory / Brexit Party non-aggression pact will likely wipe the board in England, more than compensating for losses of votes in Scotland and NI.
You are very optimistic about the chances of the Brexit Party. I’d be very surprised if “wiping the board” happened. They may make little progress – that’s very common with these “mushroom” parties, ready to sweep the board one day, and dead the next. At the moment, Johnson is destroying the chances of both the Tories and the BP. Even if he calls an election this afternoon.
I certainly hope so.
The anti-SNP tactical campaigning by the other unionist parties might unravel this time.
What voter switches do you think will take SE England marginals from the Tories? Seats in that region with a Tory majority under 5% are as follows:
***
Southampton Itchen
Hastings & Rye
Milton Keynes South
Milton Keynes North
Crawley
***
Labour were 2nd in all five. No other party was anywhere. Even if the Brexit Party and the Pippy Longstocking Snotters together win only 5% of voteshare in 2019 it’s looking good for the Tories.
In Scotland, seats with a Tory maj under 5% are
***
Stirling
Gordon
***
SNP were 2nd in both cases. Lab came 3rd in Stirling with 22%, Lab and LibDems 3rd and 4th in Gordon, both with 12%.
The Tories might lose those two seats to the SNP (which won’t be anything to do with independence, but simply anti-Tory tactical voting by people whose preference is Labour) but I doubt there will be large swings from Lab to SNP as far up the list as Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. The Tories losing all 10 is unlikely. Maybe they will lose a few, but I won’t be surprised if they don’t lose any.
Worth noting too that the Tory and Blairite media has not batted an eyelid at the revelation that any Tory MP who does not vote with the government this week will immediately have the whip withdrawn and be reselected. That is, even if they merely abstain on the anti no-deal legislation.
Labour couldn’t even replace an unpopular council leader in Haringey without weeks of outrage from these opinion formers.
I believe that Conservative Party constituency parties are constituted as Limited Companies with full ownership of property and bank accounts. Johnson can most certainly withdraw the whip at a moment’s whim but legally he can’t tell a constituency party to deselect a candidate. This is entirely academic as the swivel eyed loons in the Shires are champing at the bit to deselect the “traitorous scum”.
Buckle up for Mad Max Brexit.
There is single ownership of the right to use the names “Conservatives”, “Conservative and Unionist Party”, “Scottish Conservative and Unionist”, “Welsh Conservatives”, etc., on the ballot paper – as registered with the Electoral Commission. So if eyes were against all odds to stop swivelling in a shire constituency association and the ex-loons managed to put the outgoing MP up for re-election they wouldn’t be able to call him the Conservative candidate. The “accounting units” for all the constituencies operate from addresses at each of the three countries’ head offices. I don’t know how these relate to the associations. As you say, it’s academic. Enoch is about to roar.
“We must be mad, literally mad…”
Took your advice and laid 40 litres of diesel into the East wing of O’Blivion Towers.
According to some media reports Labour has abandoned its call for a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government. It would appear not enough LibDem or Tory rebels want to see Corbyn in number ten.
instead Labour looks more likely to try and take control of the Commons Order Paper, and attempt to pass a bill to force Johnson’s government to seek a further extension from the EU. Though its not yet a foregone conclusion that remainers will take control of the Commons Order Paper.
Although the EU would probably be sympathetic to a further extension, its chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said that the Irish backstop will not be scrapped.
Throw in that Johnson knows fine well failure to leave the EU on the 31st of October, would seriously damage his chances of winning a post-Brexit GE.
It does now increasingly that we will leave the EU without a deal on October 31st.
Labour will not take control of the order paper. A group that includes the Labour MPs might.
Boris Johnson will probably have his cricket bat in his hand and mete out an exceptionally hard thwack with resounding “eclat” when he rises to speak in the Commons tomorrow. “Take back control”.
It was agreed that Jeremy Corbyn wouldn’t attend the Church House anti-crashout event. The sop was that instead of him saying “I know when I’m not welcome”, it would be asserted that he’d had a “diary clash”.
That’s how weak Labour are. It is sad to watch.
A bit later No. 10, in a vulgar Trumpian piece of “f*** the lot of you”, gave the same “diary clash” reason for Boris Johnson cancelling his meeting with the anti-crashout Tory team (“rebels” in media parlance) led by Philip Hammond.
I kind of hope Dominic Cummings gets free rein at No. 10. The way he called Sonia Khan into his office, demanded she hand over two phones, and then walked outside the building to click his fingers at an armed policeman to have her frogmarched off the premises (where is Youtube when you really want it?) must have taken him back to his days on the door at his hardman uncle’s Klute nightclub in Durham.
Cummings has got “I’ve got it coming to me” written all over him.
As did Richard Spencer (click here).
I suppose one of the few upsides of all this is that one day this will all make a bloody good film!
Comedy of course.
“I kind of hope Dominic Cummings gets free rein at No. 10. The way he called Sonia Khan into his office, demanded she hand over two phones, and then walked outside the building to click his fingers at an armed policeman to have her frogmarched off the premises ”
You know when fascism raised it ugly head in Italy under Mussolini, some American journalist and their well know newspapers thought it was acceptable, as it would thwart communism and socialism.
Trump and certain quarters of right now laud Johnson for taking us out of the EU, knowing fine well the economic damage that will do. Whilst the media, once again demonise socialism and a socialist PM.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-journalists-covered-rise-mussolini-hitler-180961407/
I’m not surprised they’re shying away from a no confidence vote and a GE – to quote (I think) Jim Callaghan it would be like the “turkeys voting for Christmas!
We’re pretty much in the same situation as May’s 2017 election. Johnson is under the same pressures, imprisoned by the ERG and the rest of them. The only difference is that Johnson lies without stopping. Nothing he tells you is the truth, and people are beginning to figure it out.
The figures are in for all to see, nobody was concerned about the EU any more than years previously. It’s been stirred up, from the top. Boris boasts about doing it, All he’s done for years is capitalise on the base he helps cultivate.
In this context, remainers really are annoying. Because even under the conditions of this vote no mandate, nobody out on the streets across the county demanding “Give us all a vote on the EU”, & including all the lies & underhand tactics. Those of us like JC who are trying to find some kink of compromise are castigated for not waving EU flags & basically taking the same all or nothing position as brexiters.
The EU is not a totally good thing if they hadn’t noticed. & it surly would be possible to find another arrangement. Otherwise what? We see the same thing play out again?
This is nonsense, We need rid of this government. they are an utter disaster.
this vote with no* mandate
“This is nonsense, We need rid of this government. they are an utter disaster.”
If you live in Scotland its Westminster through independence that we need rid off. It doesn’t matter who’s in number ten we need to take back control of our own affairs.
When I hear you say “We” who do you mean? & how?
Many people in Scotland have plenty of independence & control over there own lives. Depends what section of society.
It sounds lovely but what does it mean in real life? Clearly nothing, it’s a place holder. & like boris questioned about his nhs plans, the general answer seems to be a bumbling response. & Im not “principally” against Scotland running their own currency, for instance (though since when do people have influence over any central banking policy?) Or many thing you might call “independence” but you don’t make clear what they are, How they will be done, & how they will be better. .
I am tired of just hearing the word said over & over again. & that’s basically all you seem to do.
“When I hear you say “We” who do you mean? & how?”
Don’t play coy with me, you’re well aware of what I mean, and how.
Sigh, .. jesus… I’m not being coy. And again I get Zero clear answer, like before the last vote the only clear policy was remain with the pound.
Are you deliberately trying to be obtuce? Your not defining at all what it means in real terms. Over and over again. How many times do I have to point it out ROS ?
No no I really don’t know what your on about. Now please don’t talk to me again if all you can say is basically one word.
Ken Clarke has stated that he is willing to support Corbyn as caretaker PM. I think that a NCV could be in the pipeline if Tory grandees are coming out for a Labour PM. Swinson will not be able to refuse to support Corbyn if her suggested caretaker PM is supporting Corbyn, I mean, that would make her look ridiculous…
I doubt that will happen. Jo Swinson looks fairly ridiculous anyway. A caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn or anybody else would have to be appointed by the monarch first before it could win a motion “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”. Even if events were to reach that point the main effect would be to STOP what would otherwise have to be the course to a general election when the bell rang 14 days after Boris Johnson lost the original no confidence vote. Besides, Anna Soubry’s group would have to be onside.
Johnson has now said that he will ignore parliament if it passes any legislation (laws) that attempt to extend A50, Any Tory MPs who abstain or vote for such legislation will have the whip taken away (it will only take two to put the Tory/DUP coalition into a minority government). Johnson had also said that he doesn’t want a GE and “we” (apparently) don’t want a GE, so he’s not going to seek the two thirds required to dissolve parliament. He’s betting on a VNC to frame the GE as the people v parliament – an insane strategy for sure but there you have it. There is no way parliament, on both sides of the chamber and in both houses, can stand by and let this madness continue unchecked otherwise they might as well all pack it all in and cancel any future GEs.
Proceedings in the House of Commons resume tomorrow afternoon at 2.30 pm and not today as I think I said earlier on here.
Today Johnson has cancelled a meeting with the so called rebel MPs.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-brexit-rebel-defiant-david-gauke-as-pm-considers-threat-to-withdraw-whip-11799602
I do not think that it is worth the time and effort to speculate on anything at the moment, but the stream of posts would seem to take the argument away from the original that the Queen was somehow playing an active part in all this. Anyone else but.
Maybe we could start a campaign to unite Ireland…
Or just leave.
“Maybe we could start a campaign to unite Ireland…”
It does seem to me that this is Boris’ Achilles heel. He is trying to reimpose the rule of the English crown over independent Eire.
Nick Ferrari and Jacob Rees-Mogg both play down a doctor’s serious concerns, who worked on Project Yellowhammer, as to the amount of deaths that might occur due to a lack of medicines and isotopes.
The doctor bravely points out that Yellowhammer preparations do not cover the worst case scenario of a no deal Brexit.
https://amp.lbc.co.uk/radio/special-shows/ring-rees-mogg/jacob-rees-mogg-rows-with-doctor-no-deal-brexit/?__twitter_impression=true
I would urge you to consult my post to Laguerre further up this thread RE transportation and Dover-Calais. I’m sure the brave doctor is well meaning, but unfortunately he’s bought a red herring. This idea that diabetics will be dropping dead because their insulin is stuck in a traffic jam is both based on a false premise, and also completely avoidable.
I looked above for what you claim is the false premise.
Can you explain what regulations customs officials will be operating under at Dover in the event of a crashout Brexit?
Okay what about the leaked DfT document that says differently.
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-crisis-govt-analysis-suggests-chaos-at-dover-in-event-of-no-deal-departure-11800263
The first bullet point of your link:
“On day one of a no-deal Brexit, the worst case scenario would be a two-day maximum delay for freight and vehicles at Dover and an average wait of one-and-a-half days.”
Last year during during the work to rule strike, we had vehicles sat in Calais for literally six days. Can you link me to the articles about all those people who died cause they couldn’t get their medication then? No? That’s cause there weren’t any. Back then the media did their best to get people panic buying too but supermarkets didn’t start rationing or any of the other ridiculous stuff that gets floated daily in comments.
N – the false premise that a no deal exit has to mean days worth of traffic at the border. I have no particular knowledge with regards to what the regulations the government is planning to align with, but we’re essentially (and as far as I know so are lots of other hauliers) working under WTO regulations already in an attempt to minimise disruption in the coming months.
There’s a difference between some organisations working under WTO rules, such as yours, if what you say is correct, and the whole lot of all those poorly prepared organisations. Your light dismissal of the Dover problem shows that you are not working there but rather on some other more lightly trafficked route.
“Your light dismissal of the Dover problem shows that you are not working there but rather on some other more lightly trafficked route.”
Que? I’m sorry Laguerre but you really need to knock it on the head with these black and white statements. Your cocksure attitude to Hatuey was the only reason I decided to reply to you at all in this thread and now you’re doing more of it here. It just proves you have absolutely no real world knowledge of what we’re discussing.
Which other more lightly trafficked route do you suspect I’m working ‘on’ then? I’m not based on Dover as you so cleverly deduced from my username, but I’ve transited Dover – Calais via ferry and from Folkestone on the eurotunnel myself dozens of times, and like I’ve alluded to previously, I’ve got over a decade’s experience in logistics planning. In that time I’ve had anywhere between 3 and 12 HGV’s crossing that specific border almost every single day, and across the whole company we must do several hundred international border crossings every day.
So I’d be intrigued to know what relevant experience you’re basing your opinions on here? If it’s just you went to France on the ferry last year as you’ve said above then I’d suggest you do some more research on how things actually work before you start accusing people of ‘dismissing problems’ when all they’re doing is trying to provide relevant context to a discussion that’s been used by the media to stoke massive anxiety in the public, and yourself, evidently.
Having spent an inordinate amount of time on Off-G taking on the brexit means brexit bollocks – weirdly with them? – i have had to prove that Corbyn really did campaign for Remain; He wasn’t in government 50 years ago during the entry years; on and on came the commentators who i was able to throw and off they went! I mean they even started to blame the Banderist installation by ‘fuck the EU’ Nuland as proof that the EU and US worked together on Euromaidan!
So as we reach the denouement and brexiiteers stretch for a hard brexit and stopping a Corbynite majority government
– here are a couple of excellent articles one written before the referendum and the other after.
The first is about how the real Labour socialist party was hollowed out and the panic of the meolibs at the Corbynite win; the other about how the populace was softened up by a decade of austerity. Never mind the machinations of ‘Dr Strangelove’ Cummings – which i am happy that people have finally caught up with.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/is-britains-media-biased-against-left/
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-inequality-and-the-demographic-divide/
As for the cry of but 17.2 million PEOPLE!!
The answer to that is it was ONLY 5.2 million who voted for the pound shop Enochs Hard Brexit party.
@Dungroaning,
I was always under the impression it was the Remainiacs who thought JC campaigned for Leave, rather than Remain & Reform, given Yanis Varoufakis travelled with him extensive in 2016. Further, and as Yanis himself stated, he did not shed a tear that the UK elected to leave the EU.
On that issue, and in line with the tall tales of Jo Swineson, I can instruct that none of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in 2015 had any interest with meeting with Prof. Varoufakis after he became Greek Finance Minister, indeed, allegedly they, that is Chuka and Leslie were far too busy to spend an hour with the man – but they are all wonderful Europeans allegedly.
I think Yanis was far too Leftwing for them to be honest
So you’ve never heard the Nigel Farage show? Or the regular meme of that lie?
You must have read my comments on Kits article at Off-G ? I had to post the proof to the brexiteers there.
Yannis, too left wing? Lol sorry mate, the other ones got bells on …
Greens and Lib Dems in HoL were interested, that was it I’m afraid.
Mind you, Genghis Khan would be too leftwing for Chris Leslie and Mike Gapes, how they were ever in the Labour Party beats me.
A letter in the Guardian from former Labour MP David Hinchcliffe recalled a conversation he had with Leslie not long after he was originally elected.
Apparently, he always wanted a career in politics but was not sure which party to join. I bet he did not tell his selection meeting that!
I tried to track Leslie’s background and trajectory a couple of years ago, it isn’t easy. Hard to find public info about family and peer group. It seems he may have been another of the chosen ones who would be a shiny happy Blair clone with a northern drawl. I gave up when his smarmy act failed to impress.
Anyway the only connective public information that is citable is that he is a ‘Co-operative Labour’ member, and when you look into that, it does get informative as is the origination, finance and control of that group – for instance these MP’s seem to have the same opinions about many things – Blair, Iraq, Syria, Iran … Russia, Israel and their own current leadership. They certainly don’t come across as tradLab.
As the Tory government prepares to roll out a £100 milion Union Jackery bread and circuses campaign to turn heads from the oncoming Brexit disaster.
Here’s what you might miss, if your looking the wrong way.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1168218211604717568
if indeed Johnson is about to announce an election this afternoon, to be dated before Brexit Day, and then to be moved back later, as the Guardian reports speculation, I have to say that Cummings and Johnson are getting through their options very fast, rushing from one manoeuvre to another – first derogation, now that’s not satisfactory, then threatening deselection of recalcitrant Tories, which led to fight-back, because of course you can’t just sack major Tory personalities, just because they don’t agree with you. And now it’s an election. It’s almost as if they’re panicking, because things are not going well.
How can Johnson “announce an election”?
Surely he has to get parliament to vote for one first under the fixed term legislation.
It’s in the presentation, @J, and the emotions it hooks!
Seumas Milne should send a memo throughout the Labour party saying that no Labour candidates or spokespeople should under any circumstances say that Boris Johnson has “called” a general election. Instead they should say that he has “asked for” a general election.
That’s the kind of management the Labour campaign needs if, as is so desperately needed, Labour are to win this election.
I expect it is being claimed an election is being sought to calm the nervous Tory Remain MPs who were called last evening by the Whips
and spelling it out for them.
That one went wrong for Johnson, didn’t it? Reinforced the resistance powerfully this morning. That’s why he’s had to go for an election, the nuclear option, as he sees it.
Galt
“How can Johnson “announce an election”?”
You’d do well in Private Eye’s Pedants Corner. You’d also do better to send your complaint to the BBC, who used that expression. And indeed your hero Alexander “Boris” Johnson’s ego would not tolerate your contesting his decision. You’d be frog-marched out of Downing St by an armed policeman, like that poor woman Khan.
If the cunning wheeze is to get the hard brexit than fight on a election campaign to stay out or negotiate a ‘new’ entry without certain regulations on some part of the nations business entry, it is indeed the last head down leap for the line.
Even a minutes hard brexit will do them – and the City will gallop away – and voila austerity will stop … a customs union will be agreed (sans the City) , hell even free movement will be restored!
The only way to stop a hard brexit on the 31st is to have an election underway before then. That is the only way the EU would accept an extension if there was any chance of new red lines or wothdrawal of A50 or a quick confirmatory referendum.
Dom Cummings should have been out the moment he became the story rather than a mere spad that he is.
To recall a famous civil servants wirds , he’s f*****d, he’s boss is f****d, they’re all f******g f****d!
“Off course we only prorogued because we were always planning to have the election”
They really expect people to believe it?
Btw Steve Bells new ‘If’ strip for this week still hasn’t been published on the Groans site.
It is about bobo getting queenie to sign the deed. Available at his own belltoons site.
Happy days and time to order a new batch of popcorn. Schools back tomorrow there are going to be many in dire straits from day one!
For all those claiming, “Defend our democracy”, I have news for you. It’s not our democracy it’s the democracy of the ruling class. It’s a dictatorship of capital. What should be proposed by those protesting is build a movement that has as it’s central aim getting rid of capitalism, and it’s bourgeois democracy, and replacing it with the dictatorship of the working class.
And just who will clean out the chicken coup?
*coop
The Sun, the Guardian, the BBC and the Independent have all referred to the prospect of Boris Johnson “calling” an general election. How does it feel, you lickspittles, to have the hand of Tory Central Office making your lips move?
Johnson hasn’t got the authority to call an election. There are no two ways about that. He can ask MPs to call one. That’s all he can do.
Seumas, you’ve got to frame this as though the Tories have already lost. That’s your task, my friend.
It would seem Boris has it in the bag.
It is all coming together.
David Cameron ( Eton) goes to see the Elite of Europe to ask for some gruel, they tell him to Fuck Off.
Seventeen and a half million U.K. voters, vote to Leave the E.U.
Theresa takes the helm for a couple of years to frustrate the whole country into a fit of pique,
so now we are more sure after several years that we no longer want anything to do with Europe.
90% of Tory voters want to Leave with No Deal.
The Brexit party is formed and at the unexpected E.U. election, they take most of the cake, Tories only win crumbs.
Theresa is out on her ear.
The man of the moment steps forward, Boris Johnson ( Eton)
Boris claims it is Do or Die on or before Halloween.
Tory rebels get mouthy, thinking they have the upper hand.
The Tory rebels are put straight.
If more than a few, refuse to back Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn will play his allotted role.
Corbyn puts in play a motion of no confidence in this Tory government.
Boris has no choice in the matter, Jacob Rees-Mogg is duly dispatched, once again to Balmoral.
After tea and cakes, our Queen Elizabeth 2
graciously agrees to whatever Jacob asks.
A new (unexpected) General Election is called.
Those Tory bastards who did not support Boris are no longer members of the Conservative Party ( in its Hard Brexit format)
People will be chosen by their Leave constituency voters.
After the General Election the Changlings are no more and the Liberal Democrats quickly forget about the E.U.
as to request another Referendum would be having to admit to adopt the Euro
and that will not happen.
Jeremy Corbyn has played his part well and he can step down as leader of her majestys loyal opposition.
He will take ermin and enjoy all the trappings he has spent a long life working toward.
We are finally out of the awful grasp of Tony Blair and the Liberal Elite.
The queen hasn’t got the legal authority to call an election even if she is asked by the prime minister, by Jacob Rees-Moog, or the entire high table at Eton. She can prorogue but she cannot dissolve. Section 3 of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. You’d have to repeal that first.
Jeremy Corbyn won’t take ermine. If I knew you personally I would offer you a wager.
Fabulous!
As in a fabulous fantasy they put together at CCP to make themselves feel better for half a hour before returning to the horror.
I’m going to save it for posterity.
It’s not just a simple majority required, he needs to get two-thirds of the arseholes to vote for it!
Surely the remainer turkeys will not vote for Christmas!
Depends when it is.
I’ve plugged the results of the last 7 YouGov polls into a spreadsheet. YouGov splits England and Wales into 4 regions. In a hypothetical scenario where the Tories form a non-aggression pact with the Brexit Party and the Labour Party forms a non-aggression pact with the LibDems (highly unlikely for Swinson shaped reasons) the averages come out as:
London – Lab & Libdem pact, 20.6% advantage = 76 seats.
Rest of South – Con & BP pact, 12.8% advantage = 209 seats.
Midlands & Wales – Con & BP pact, 8.1% advantage = 123 seats (corrected for Plaid Cymru)
North of England has a Con & BP pact advantage of only 3% so leave aside the 153 seats up for grabs.
London + Scottish projection + (optimistic) NI projection = 155 seats for Remain.
South of England + Midlands & Wales + Scotland and NI = 340 seats for Leave.
The calculations are based on FPTP where the strong (>8%) preference grants all seats to the winner.
It’s not even close.
Tory ex-ministers are joining forces with Labour to stop the U.K. leaving the E.U. on 31 October without a deal.
That is close to Treason.
No ermine for those scoundrels.
The far right are always talking about treason. Were you the guy who sent that fake poison to the Queen? Very similar mentality involved.
Your analysis is fundamentally flawed, though
Sorry.
It’s a redyreconner. The traditional method of taking variation from a fixed, known point (General Election
) and applying this on a constituency by constituency basis is complicated by the Brexit Party not being around in 2017. UKIP were not an applicable substitute as they were in meltdown with a new leader every month and an open door to outright fascists. Also, you’d have to pay me to input that amount of data.
Ukip were not around?
They were and lost because most of the protest kipper biters went back to their traditional vote.
Brexit party pretty much had the same at the EU total as the kippers did – 5.2 million.
Unless certain very specific constituencies have enough kipper/brexit/gammon voters they will never get any seat in fptp election.
Anyway, the longest overdue election in peace time will soon be granted so that the people can roll the dice again. Based on the manifestos offered.
My money is in a 50-100 seat majority.
Further thoughts; although a Labour / LibDem pact is unlikely, a Labour / Plaid Cymru pact is likely workable. Even if that returned all Welsh seats as Remain, the result (excluding North of England) would still be:
Leave – 298 seats
Remain – 173 seats
Boris Johnson is set to make an announcement outside No. 10 at 6.00pm today.
@Seumas, if Johnson says he plans to suggest a general election and the Labour response does not refer to his REQUESTING one, I shall be very annoyed. I want the phrases “requested” or “asked for” in every single Labour response. I want it on the front page of tomorrow’s Mirror, okay?
You’ve got to get the message across that the Tories are weak, they’ve already lost, it’s them going over the cliffedge because that’s where they wanted to pull the rest of us, and they’re finally going to jump off without us, where they belong.
Isn’t it about time that the ‘Overton Window’ got pushed a little bit more, to include ‘armed insurrection’?
“Isn’t it about time that the ‘Overton Window’ got pushed a little bit more, to include ‘armed insurrection’?”
Well, the question is, when Brexit reignites the Irish War of Independence, which side shall “we” be on?
I think things were a wee bit confusing Re Roger Waters Playing ‘ Wish You Were Here ‘ outside the HO at 6pm tonight
Cheers SharpEars for helping Promote this one the other day –
Looks like I found the correct link –
https://live.ruptly.tv/en/events/201909021700-LIVE996
Do the remainers scent a way to stop Brexit?
Magician Boris will have to be at the top of his game tonight and pull a rabbit out of the hat…….unless of course he wouldn’t be sorry..
Mmmm…perhaps only one half of the rabbit tonight – the rest at the end of the week?
So now we know – Boris Johnson is TOO SCARED to request an election.
His suggestion seems to be that if the House of Commons votes for the Benn bill tomorrow Johnson will do one of the following:
* request an election
* do a Pinochet
* resign.
Boris did look scared, the rentamob were howling very loudly.
Apparently most of the Conservative Remainers have told Boris to Bog Off, the country is more important than the Conservative party.
It is looking like the LibDems will be the Kingmakers.
GNU on its way.
I pity the JRT puppy going into that madhouse.
Where’s Swinson?
https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2019/09/01/as-swinson-goes-mia-corbyn-proves-hes-leader-of-the-opposition-in-both-name-and-nature/
Not a peep out of her over the last seven days, she is
Missing In Action
“Where’s Swinson?” Didn’t the schools go back today?
I imagine Larry must be considering his position.
I didn’t realise there was also a Mad Hatters tea party going on in the Garden as he spoke!
Described as a ‘drinks party’ on the BBC. What was the celebration in aid of?
Ms Kuenssberg and Ms Bruce were outside No 10 as the party attendees trotted out.
Whoever said brexit & indy steam from the same basic thing, bang on.
Alex & Borris have been doing exactly the same thing for years. Throwing rhetorical bombs over their respective self constructed bunker lines & getting cheers from a crowd they have been building, But when it comes to going over the top, what is the actual plan ?
Before “indy” was with the pound, now “real” or “full” or whatever buzzword you pick (I could care less) is something else. Yet now i’m expected to know? like it’s Just obvious what’s meant. …& currency is just one factor, one assumes a range of policys that need to be considered & put to the public.
I see nothing, absolutely nothing, Just the chant of indy indy indy. And this automatic expectation that whatever it means, it will be better. & you expect people to just follow you over the edge? Many people who are on the line as it is ?
It’s easy to say isn’t it? with many thousands of pounds to cushion any issues, These guys are fully armoured, But the people? They can go over in a shirt with nothing but re-assurance.
To put things much more basic than i normally would…
If I saw the plan to win i’d be backing it.
Or course… you can never account for everything, But you can at least say these are the SPECIFIC targets, & this is likely to be the specific effect. We should do A that will result in B. Why & how it will be better. & possible issues.
Thats not being cowardly, That’s planning to “win” (I hate even using the word, but you get it, Some kind of general betterment off peoples lives) …
Just watching the toothless, enfeebled, once-journalist Jon Snow interviewing that psychpathic Blair on channel 4 news. What a couple of fools.
Yes.
Why do these hacks and broadcasters give BLiar house room?
He should be in the dock in the Hague or on a cold island somewhere with a loop playing of Iraqi children screaming in pain as their dressings were changed.
Apologies for reposting this from an earlier thread.
Johnson has now said that he will ignore parliament if it passes any legislation (laws) that attempt to extend A50, Any Tory MPs who abstain or vote for such legislation will have the whip taken away (it will only take two to put the Tory/DUP coalition into a minority government). Johnson had also said that he doesn’t want a GE and “we” (apparently) don’t want a GE, so he’s not going to seek the two thirds required to dissolve parliament. He’s betting on a VNC to frame the GE as the people v parliament – an insane strategy for sure but there you have it. There is no way parliament, on both sides of the chamber and in both houses, can stand by and let this madness continue unchecked otherwise they might as well all pack it all in and cancel any future GEs.