It is very difficult to collect my thoughts into something coherent after four hours sleep in the last 48 hours, but these are heads of key issues to be developed later.
I have no doubt that the Johnson government will very quickly become the most unpopular in UK political history. The ultra-hard Brexit he is pushing will not be the panacea which the deluded anticipate. It will have a negative economic impact felt most keenly in the remaining industry of the Midlands and North East of England. Deregulation will worsen conditions for those fortunate enough to have employment, as will further benefits squeezes. Immigration will not in practice reduce; what will reduce are the rights and conditions for the immigrants.
Decaying, left-behind towns will moulder further. The fishing industry will very quickly be sold down the river in trade negotiations with the EU – access to fishing (and most of the UK fishing grounds are Scottish) is one of the few decent offers Boris has to make to the EU in seeking market access. His Brexit deal will take years and be overwhelmingly fashioned to benefit the City of London.
There is zero chance the Conservatives will employ a sizeable number of extra nurses: they just will not be prepared to put in the money. They will employ more policemen. In a couple of years time they will need them for widespread riots. They will not build any significant portion of the hospitals or other infrastructure they promised. They most certainly will do nothing effective about climate change. These were simply dishonest promises. The NHS will continue to crumble with more and more of its service provision contracted out, and more and more of its money going into private shareholders’ pockets (including many Tory MPs).
The disillusionment will be on the same scale as Johnson’s bombastic promises. The Establishment are not stupid and realise there will be an anti-Tory reaction. Their major effort will therefore be to change Labour back into a party supporting neo-liberal economic policy and neo-conservative foreign (or rather war) policy. They will want to be quite certain that, having seen off the Labour Party’s popular European style social democratic programme with Brexit anti-immigrant fervour, the electorate have no effective non-right wing choice at the next election, just like in the Blair years.
To that end, every Blairite horror has been resurrected already by the BBC to tell us that the Labour Party must now move right – McNicol, McTernan, Campbell, Hazarayika and many more, not to mention the platforms given to Caroline Flint, Ruth Smeeth and John Mann. The most important immediate fight for radicals in England is to maintain Labour as a mainstream European social democratic party and resist its reversion to a Clinton style right wing ultra capitalist party. Whether that is possible depends how many of the Momentum generation lose heart and quit.
Northern Ireland is perhaps the most important story of this election, with a seismic shift in a net gain of two seats in Belfast from the Unionists, plus the replacement of a unionist independent by the Alliance Party. Irish reunification is now very much on the agenda. The largesse to the DUP will be cut off now Boris does not need them.
For me personally, Scotland is the most important development of all. A stunning result for the SNP. The SNP result gave them a bigger voter share in Scotland than the Tories got in the UK. So if Johnson got a “stonking mandate for Brexit”, as he just claimed in his private school idiom, the SNP got a “stonking mandate” for Independence.
I hope the SNP learnt the lesson that by being much more upfront about Independence than in the disastrous “don’t mention Independence” election of 2017, the SNP got spectacularly better results.
I refrained from criticising the SNP leadership during the campaign, even to the extent of not supporting my friend Stu Campbell when he was criticised for doing so (and I did advise him to wait until after election day). But I can say now that the election events, which are perfect for promoting Independence, are not necessarily welcome to the gradualists in the SNP. A “stonking mandate” for Independence and a brutal Johnson government treating Scotland with total disrespect leaves no room for hedge or haver. The SNP needs to strike now, within weeks not months, to organise a new Independence referendum with or without Westminster agreement.
If we truly believe Westminster has no right to block Scottish democracy, we need urgently to act to that effect and not just pretend to believe it. Now the election is over, I will state my genuine belief there is a political class in the SNP, Including a minority but significant portion of elected politicians, office holders and staff, who are very happy with their fat living from the devolution settlement and who view any striking out for Independence as a potential threat to their personal income.
You will hear from these people we should wait for EU trade negotiations, for a decision on a section 30, for lengthy and complicated court cases, or any other excuse to maintain the status quo, rather than move their well=paid arses for Independence. But the emergency of the empowered Johnson government, and the new mandate from the Scottish electorate, require immediate and resolute action. We need to organise an Independence referendum with or without Westminster permission, and if successful go straight for UDI. If the referendum is blocked, straight UDI it is, based on the four successive election victory mandates.
With this large Tory majority, there is nothing the SNP MPs can in practice achieve against Westminster. We should now withdraw our MPs from the Westminster Parliament and take all actions to paralyse the union. This is how the Irish achieved Independence. We will never get Independence by asking Boris Johnson nicely. Anyone who claims to believe otherwise is a fool or a charlatan.
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From Julian’s court hearing today, on Boris Johnson and the governor of Belmarsh:
> “We already know what Boris Johnson thinks of Julian Assange: he’s a data thief and a spy, and should be on a plane sent straight back to the U.S. of A. as soon as possible.”
Julian Assange Westminster Magistrates Court — EF Press update — Dec 13, 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIVmgihmzCA
> Lawyers complain about lack of access to Julian Assange in jail
> Defence team say he is unaware of some evidence in his case because of blockage in visits
> Fri 13 Dec 2019
> Julian Assange has been blocked from seeing evidence in his extradition case because his lawyers cannot get sufficient access to him, a court has heard.
> The WikiLeaks founder, 48, appeared at Westminster magistrates court by video link on Friday for a hearing to extend his detention in Belmarsh prison, in south-east London. . . .
> Gareth Peirce, defending Assange, said the legal team were struggling to prepare documents for the case as Assange had no access to the evidence.
> “Without Mr Assange’s knowledge, some of it is recently acquired evidence, some of it is subject to months of investigation not always in this country, of which he is unaware because of the blockage in visits,” she said.
> “Despite our best efforts, Mr Assange has not been given what he must be given, and we are doing our utmost to cut through this.”
> Peirce said the governor of Belmarsh had prioritised family visits over legal visits, and she asked the judge to step in. But the district judge, Vanessa Baraitser, said she had no jurisdiction over the Prison Service. . . .
> He will next appear in court by video link on 19 December for a case management hearing.
Lawyers complain about lack of access to Julian Assange in jail | Media | The Guardian | 13 Dec 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/13/lawyers-complain-about-lack-of-access-to-julian-assange-in-jail
Thanks @JMG for that update. #FreePress #FreeAssange #FreeManning
There’s going to be a lot of verbiage on what went wrong for Labour (and what went right for the SNP) but I think it boils down to this: both the Tories and the SNP delivered a very simple message aimed at what they calculated was a majority in their respective fields of influence. Although the issues were different on either side of Berwick, the principle was the same. Labour would have been stuffed by the complexity and unrealism of what they were offering even without the disgraceful smear campaign orchestrated by Blair’s, Powell’s and Mandelson’s professional lobbying/PR outfits. Whatever Labour decides as Corbyn is thrown in the skip, “keep it simple, stupid” is something they badly need to embrace if they are ever to form a government again.
The SNP was particularly sensible not to cost its proposal to leave the UK, as the Tories were to skate over the significant obstacles remaining to leaving the EU, as well as sidelining Rees-Mogg for the duration and not wasting too much time on Scotland. Personally, I’d say that if Scotland did UDI, the English economy wouldn’t take too heavy a hit – although sales of Japanese whisky might increase and some of that Barnett Formula cash would be able to come home – so good luck with that.
What ‘happened’ to Corbyn was the Daily Mail.
And not forgetting ‘the lobby’. Even the Archbishop of Canterbury joined in by concurring with the remarks of the Chief Rabbi, Mr Mirvis.
Currently on BBC 2, Maitlis is conducting an ‘inquest’ on the Election. She was joined by Ms Jo Coburn ( of the Ealing Synagogue congregation) and another harpie. Maitlis had Ken Loach in for a haranguing. Why didn’t you speak up for him, publicly etc. The looked frail and old and was nonplussed by her aggressive approach.
Maitlis had the likes of Falconer, Brokenshire and others in to her court for answers to questions and opinions. Dreadful stuff. It is unceasing.
And the BBC. And the Guardian. And the Bliarites. And Israel. The entire Establishment were determined to ensure nothing should rock their boat. Voting is pointless when the electorate is so gullible and easily bought and when the powers that be are so ruthless and determined to get their way.
That Barnett formula is a partial return of taxes paid by Scotland to the Exchequer, Westminster retain around 40-45%.There would be no cash coming home to england simply because it was never yours, Scotland however would gain the 45% retained by England. England no longer make much of anything, you don’t grow enough food, have enough water or create enough power to keep yourselves afloat without Scotland – i think you’re the ones that will need luck
The ignorance of so many people in the UK is apalling but it is down to all the lies and misinformation all the Britnats pump out on their media. Westminster has been taking Scotlands revenues and returning a percentage back (Most of the time about 50 %) ever since the union of 1707. The biggest theft in actual amounts has of course been in the last 50 years. Why would anyone want to stay in a partnership that for 312 years has been ripping you off while at the same time telling you that you are poor stupid and too wee a country to be any good.
Of course the reality is that most of the wealthiest countries in the world are small countries. You only have to look at Norway to see what they have done with their oil resources. Sadly England has been looting colonies resources around the world for centuries. Scotland has been treated no differently.
And don’t forget also that Westminster governments borrow for what they want to spend on, where and at a scale and at a time in the economic cycle they decide upon.
These governments then assign a share of the interest payments on this (often substantial) borrowing to Scotland based on the latter’s population size, regardless of Scotland’s need for the borrowing; regardless of its (often lack of) democratic influence on the governments that are making the decision to borrow/spend; and regardless of the purpose and of where the resulting economic or social benefit within the UK actually accrues.
And then Westminster adds the interest payment into its calculation to show that Scotland operates with a huge defect relative to other countries in Europe, all of which are, by contrast with Scotland, independent and thus able to decide for themselves how much to borrow for what, when.
(And when was the last time the electorate in Scotland voted by majority in a General Election for the Tories? In the 1950s?)
The biggest propaganda is the supposed deficit Scotland has of – well whatever amount the UK gov decides it is. You can only have a deficit or surplus if you are an independent country in complete control of revenue generation, all spending and borrowing powers.
The Scotland deficit is 100% propaganda that only people who are lacking in knowledge or want to spread propaganda will engage with.
Not entirely unexpected.
THE ESTABLISHMENT IS COMING FOR YOUR MEDIA
13/12/2019 · by SKWAWKBOX (SW) · in Analysis, comment. ·
John Mann
John Mann, now truly out in the open as a Tory-made peer and wearing his peerage proudly in his Twitter handle, is coming for the left media. Using his role as Boris Johnson’s ‘antisemitism tsar’, he has announced an investigation into the left media. With no trace of irony, he named the Canary in his announcement.
The founders of the Canary are Jewish.
Mann, who resigned as an MP before the election to take up his Tory peerage and job, has a track record of anti-Gypsy discrimination and has been blamed by local Gypsy Travellers for making their lives a misery. He was interviewed by police in a hate-crime investigation, after putting out a leaflet that included them in a list of anti-social nuisances.
Such details will be ignored by the Establishment media, of course – as will the fact that Mann seems to have no intention of investigating racism in the Tory party.
Tribune editor Ronan Burtenshaw has written today:
The socialist movement has been here before and we will get through it stronger — what is genuine will be proven in the fire. But they will come for us.
The new left media threaten the Establishment – and now the Establishment intends to make it payback time. If Labour had won last night and embarked on a programme of removing the media that have smeared it for years, the media would be up in arms. Yet the Establishment’s decision to come for the independent media for telling the truth will raise no more than a murmur, if that.
If you value the genuine voice of the left, it is time to fight for it”.
Further.
Michael Rosen
@MichaelRosenYes
Follow Follow @MichaelRosenYes
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Replying to @LordJohnMann
I see you’re busy, John. Can you share with us your criteria for not investigating Jacob Rees-Mogg, Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson?
Like 🙂 Thank you @Tarla
What exactly is a Gypsy traveller? A Romany, in a caravan? An irish tinker on the road, A Romanian gypsy in the UK or a latter day hippie. They are from different societies and have different cultural histories and traditions. These can lead to clashes with the settled non travelling population for example illegal squatting.
From different societies? They have lived and travelled through England for hundreds of years and racists who mask themselves as ‘ anti semitism csars’ , as well as those excusing such MacCarthyism should be put to trial and jailed for spilling their bile on society.
Hope you and your tea sipping circle won’t miss Sacher torte. You will have to make do with cucumber sandwiches, how nice.
Yes Tarla, an early harbinger of the next 5 years. Unions have been decisively neutered so the Right will now set its sights on any media outlet that challenges neoliberalism. People like Johnson and Gove emerged out of rightwing propaganda backgrounds and probably consider no left media challenge too small not to be destroyed.
Completely OT.
Does the “Primary Sub Source” for the Steele Dossier (“the russian guy”, as referred to in the Senate), mentioned in the IG report, was Sergei Skripal?
During the Senate hearings, when questioning Horowitz, there was bi-partisan disinterest on the identity of the Russian “sub source” as in “don’t go there”. One could argue that it was to protect the identity of a valuable source but, then, one learns from the same report that all this sub source said to Steele was gossip and lies heard, mostly, in bars. So, Why the only and real source of this shameful dossier, plagued with lies, is protected? Shouldn’t he be denounced, mainly by Republicans?
Any link/article regarding this? Thx.
Of course it was Skipal, that’s why they had to get rid of him and his daughter. Ski pal was a triple agent and in it for the money. He had become a liability.
In the same way James Le Mesurier of white helmet fame had become a liability and died on Veterans Day. His body is in fleet.
His wife Emma Weinberg is still under investigation by the Turks and cannot leave the country.
Well said, Craig. At the soonest, most advantageous time, SNP MPs must abandon Westminster to its rancid British nationalist stench.
The SNP mp’s will not abandon Westminster, now they are back and have access to the trough again.
Do they want to give up the wages, expenses and access to the best club in town.
No !!!!
The Irish republican mp’s are more hone table and give up the perks/benefits as a principal,
Also they refuse to swear an alligence to the crown.
Bring back Salmond if you want Scottish independence and get rid of braveheart.
Braveheart will end up in the House of Lords one day.
Salmond has been silenced by accusations of sexual impropriety.
The Torygraph have redacted Jo Swinson’s warning about a rising wave of nationalism on both sides of the border: look for the cut at about 01:58 in that clip.
A good Piece by Caitlin J –
“… but it is also undeniable that the election was affected by a political smear campaign that was entirely unprecedented in scale and vitriol in the history of western democracy. This smear campaign was driven by billionaire-controlled media outlets, along with intelligence and military agencies, as well as state media like the BBC.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has been described as the most smeared politician in history, and this is a fair description. Journalist Matt Kennard recently compiled documentation of dozens of incidents in which former and current spooks and military officials collaborated with plutocratic media institutions to portray Corbyn as a threat to national security. Journalistic accountability advocates like Media Lens and Jonathan Cook have been working for years to compile evidence of the mass media’s attempts to paint Corbyn as everything from a terrorist sympathizer to a Communist to a Russian asset to an IRA supporter to a closet antisemite. Just the other day The Grayzone documented how establishment narrative manager Ben Nimmo was enlisted to unilaterally target Corbyn with a fact-free Russiagate-style conspiracy theory in the lead-up to the election, a psyop that was uncritically circulated by both right-wing outlets like The Telegraph as well as ostensibly “left”-wing outlets like The Guardian.
Just as Corbyn’s advocacy for the many over the plutocratic few saw him targeted by billionaire media outlets, his view of Palestinians as human beings saw him targeted by the imperialist Israel lobby as exposed in the Al Jazeera documentary The Lobby. For a mountain of links refuting the bogus antisemitism smear directed at Corbyn, a lifelong opponent of antisemitism, check out the deluge of responses to this query I made on Twitter the other day.
This interference continued right up into the day before the election, with the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg flagrantly violating election rules by reporting that early postal votes had been illegally tallied and results were “looking very grim for Labour”.
“With this large Tory majority, there is nothing the SNP MPs can in practice achieve against Westminster. We should now withdraw our MPs from the Westminster Parliament and take all actions to paralyse the union. ”
Yes a very proactive course of action if Johnson say no, which he probably will do.
The Velvet Divorce, the dissolution of Czechslovakia, only took six months to complete, the 2020 timeline is doable.
The ‘velvet divorce’ was not democratic. It was decided by two people, Vaclav Klaus and Vladimir Meciar, against the polled wishes of the the majority in both countries. It was done without a referendum which CzechoSlovak President Havel said was essential, because a referendum would not have resulted in the results required by these two people and their (foreign) backers. Please don’t misuse this as a template for Scotland.
Three comments, first brexit makes Scottish independence harder to achieve in that Scotland will have to leave the Union, and then have to apply to join the EU, a process that could take 5 to 10 years. It will also mean the adoption of the euro.
Second, the Tory(leave) vote came in at about 47% of the popular vote, the combined Labour SNP and Liberal vote(remain) was about 53%, in terms of individual votes the UK is as divided as ever. In Scotland I would be surprised if the SNP had more than 50% of the vote. The first past the post system is incredibly distorting if you try to transpose it on to a referendum where each individual vote matters.
Thirdly if Johnson does not grant a referendum then you are looking at a Catalan style debacle, which the EU will run a mile from, and will only serve to rally the anti independence voters.
Now is the time to take advice from Sun Tzu.
“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected”
Johnson is now in superior strength, it is time to evade. Johnson is temperamental, begin to irritate. His forces are united, now is the time to separate them. The SNP is not in a strong position, do not squander the strength you have in frontal assaults, that will gain little, but only serve to dispirit your supporters.
Add to that that the majority of voters in Scotland do not want to leave the United Kingdom then words will remain words and Scotland will remain British but with a strengthened arm to influence Westminster.
Why would a Scot want to squander that?
Make capital with what you’ve got not what you wish for.
“The majority of voters in Scotland do not want to leave the United Kingdom. ” Sorry but you have no idea that statement is true. It’s just your opinion.
The only way to find out is to have Indyref2 but without the infamous last minute vow from the Britnats for devolution max that was not delivered or any more of the Britnats broken promises and threats.
You exaggerate the difficulties for independent Scotland to join the EU, I think. The French could be very favourable, and ready to advance the case. It’s not like Serbia or Macedonia.
Then why not ask France if you could join their country? Just as France asked the UK after WWII if they could become part of Britain and her colonies.
ps after what appeared to be a genuine consideration by the British they eventually told France to F Off, which they have been doing ever since
Are you giving me a garbled version of *Churchill’s* offer in June 1940 to unite with France, at the moment where France was on the point of collapse? There wasn’t any event after the war that I know of.
From your trusted news feed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/jan/15/france.eu
Gerard you are wrong about the euro and you are wrong about 5-10 years.
Gerard you are wrong about Catalan style. In Spain it is illegal to attempt independence. In Scotland it’s legal rights are contained in the Treaty of Union 1707. A bipartite union in which England or Scotland can decide to terminate if it so chooses.
Both of your points are based on misinformation.
Cubby it looks like Craigs blog page has attracted the usual arseholes that have been with us since 2014 same shit different day .
“process that could take 5 to 10 years. It will also mean the adoption of the euro.”
First sentence bollocks, Scotland already meets the majority of the criteria for EU membership as part of the UK.
Second point, Sweden is a EU member, and has been since 1995, it has no plans yet, to adopt the Euro.
I personally have no problem dopting the Euro eventually, Ireland appears to be doing just fine.
There are a few points I take issue with in your analysis, but bonus points for quoting Sun Tzu 🙂
Firstly, the EU is a political project at least as much as it is an economic one. A member state leaving the EU must be seen to suffer to discourage others from doing the same. If Scotland were to become independent I suspect it would be welcomed into the EU, and treated very well, to provide contrast between loyalty to the EU bloc and the cautionary tale of England. This outcome would be a political triumph for the EU.
Second, as Craig has already mentioned in another thread, there is a sizable proportion of Scottish Labour supporters who also support independence. Not all separatists vote SNP and not all SNP voters are separatists.
As for your third point, I refer you to my response to the first point. If Spain was in the process of an acrimonious divorce from the EU, and this was a major driver behind the Catalan independence movement, do you really think their (lack of) response would have been the same?
Our enemy is already arrogant and engaged in battles on multiple fronts. Johnson’s political position is strong in Westminster and England as a whole, but weak in a wider context. Scotland has powerful allies who would be foolish to declare themselves until we move. Now is the time to strike.
If an independent Scotland joined the EU, presumably Scots living in Scotland would have Scottish citizenship? What about Scottish born and those eligible for Scottish citizenship living in the rest of the UK.? Would they have to opt for being Scottish or having dual nationality?
Presumably freedom of movement restrictions would kick in regarding. SCOTSIving and working in England.? Also would Scots living in England have to apply for Scottish citizenship and residential status/licence to remain?
Take my sister in law. Born in Scotland, proudly Scottish. Family all still live there. Did her PH.D at an English uni, where she met my brother. They fell in live, got married, had two children and she has lived and worked in England ever since. Her son went to Edinburgh uni and now lives there. His wife has a similar Anglo Scottish family. My niece went to an English University and lives and works in England.
How do you sort out this and similar cases if there is an independent Scotland inside the EU and an independent E glad next door, outside the EU.?, Well not by slagging off England at every possible opportunity for starters and blaming ordinary English people for the sins of the media and the ruling elites. Unemployed ex miners in the North East are just as much victims of these as anyone else.
There are international norms which we will follow for citizenship issues besides, these were all comprehensively considered in the document produced by the Scottish government prior to our first independence referendum. As they will again.
Thanks for the civil reply.
I do think joining the EU will not be as straight forward as some think, all outstanding issues with England would have to resolved vis a v constitutional matters, before the EU would processed. If England decided to be sticky this could create a lot of difficulty. You would need the support of all the members of the EU before joining, there is every chance Spain could be awkward. Joining the Euro is mandatory for all new joiners. Nothing unsurmountable, but still you have to be realistic with the voters. Nobody will have tried what scotland would be trying to do, this is new territory.
Those are all things that need to be thought about, you cant be in the position of trying to selling the skin before the lion has been slain.
Just to be clear, for me an independent scotland is a wonderful prospect, as a proud Irishman, scottish independence is something that had universal support in Ireland, I wish you nothing but the best.
Gerard
Ah the old totally debunked Spain will not let Scotland join crap.
Large numbers of countries have removed themselves from Westminster grip.
Your posts are just more of the Britnat crap that has been totally debunked but the Britnat media keep trying to breathe life into.
Gerard if thats your real name total PISH on so many points i cant be arsed pointing them all out , try again on some other site , maybe the Telegraph or the Sun .
“Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just wankers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by wankers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes.”
copy and paste. should probably be “arseholes” or maybe even “erseholes”(?)
From where did you copy and paste this piece of charming racist invective?
The film version of “Trainspotting”, of course, the line being spoken by the hero “Rentboy” Renton played by Obi Wan Kenobi. Maybe it should be “colonised” too. Like the “beasht in your shights” scene, I don’t think it was in Irvine Welsh’s book.
The Tory Government’s main support base, is certainly not in London, within The M25. It is now in Northern England’s Working Class, most of who’m have never voted Tory before.
Thatcher shutdown most of the wealth creating industry in The North of England, forcing me to move to London to get a job. Norman Tebbit, told me to get on my bike. So I did, because I did not want to be totally impoverished.
BREXIT may actually be delivered now…
But what is far more important, is That The Working Class, have the opportunites to get back to work, and create something useful, like what we used to do.
Boris Johnson is not all bad. I think he did a great job as Mayor London, and carried on the work of Ken Livingston, with many quite socialist policies, like free bus, tube and trains, for the over 60’s or people on benefits, and even “Boris Bikes” – a bit like Amsterdam – at least in theory.
What is needed is massive infrastructure and other investments, particularly in the poorest part of the country, so young people actually have an opportunity to do some useful work, such that they can create some of value and be proud of it.
I don’t know if The Tory Government will deliver it, but The North of England is now their support base, by people who want to work, who used to vote Labour, but have been completely ignored, and deserted by The Labour Party. Such people are actually very conservative with a small c., They have traditional family and working values and they do not like being betrayed by any of these neoliberal f’ckers who think the entire effin world resides within the M25, regardless of their political label.
So UP YOU!!!!! I am thinking of the image from The Film Kes.
Great vote for DEMOCRACY
The MP’s should have done what we told them to do over 3 years ago, which was to leave The EU.
They agreed they would, but they used every excuse in the book to do Nothing, and called us thick, stupid, uneducated – telling us that they knew better (cos they liked their gravy train and pigs in blankets at the trough, whilst doing Sweet FA of any value). They didn’t even make any sensible decisions about anything.
You didn’t do it, and are now on the dole (including a lot of The Blairite Fascists, which includes my former MP)
Tough sh1t. Must be a bit of a shock to you.
We’ve got a Tory now.
I did not vote for him
I couldn’t quite bring myself to do vote Tory, though I did think about it, and I think he is a good young man.
I can’t believe he is now my MP.
Tony
It would appear that the drive for Scottish independence is facing a few hurdles.
Assuming Johnson refuses to sanction any more referenda I guess there will be a lot of pissed off Scots. This could maybe lead to a few unruly demonstrations.
What better way for Scottish EU lovers to demonstrate their love by inviting a contingent of Guardia Civil over to keep the peace. They are quite experienced in dealing with independence protestors. All in all sounds like an ideal way to cement relations with the EU.
The main hurdle is Britnat fascists.
Probably not, but if you are worried then I repeat my suggestion that the Guardia Civil could well be your answer.
Loony as least you have a degree of self awareness based on your choice of name.
Look Who’s Back [in Number 10].
“Assuming Johnson refuses to sanction any more referenda I guess there will be a lot of pissed off Scots. This could maybe lead to a few unruly demonstrations.”
I’m banking on it in the short term, as I watch the pro-indy figures in the polls shoot way up. The nasty xenophobic Tories will do the dirty work for us.
When predicting the outcome of a future referendum on Scottish independence, it is simplistic to compare the SNP share of the vote with that of the so-called “Remain Parties”. I voted Labour last night because I support Corbyn’s social and economic policies (my choice would have been different if I lived in a Tory/SNP or LibDem/SNP marginal, but that is not the case).
I voted “Yes” in the first independence referendum and will vote “Yes” in a second. There are many Labour voters who, like me, favour independence but just don’t like the SNP very much. I know many Labour voters who fall into that category, and I imagine the numbers will only increase in the light of yesterday’s disastrous outcome in England..
“There are many Labour voters who, like me, favour independence but just don’t like the SNP very much.”
Indeed, a good point I’d imagine that after independence Labour no longer being a Westminster outpost would hopefully return somewhat to their roots and become more attractive via good policies, not influenced by Westminster, to voters. The same applies to the Tories and LibDems in Scotland.
The SNP would also need to up their game, no longer being the party of independence.
So yes its definitely woryh voting for independence.
“The SNP would also need to up their game, no longer being the party of independence.”
What would be the position of the SNP post-independence? With their objective achieved, would there be any need for its continuance? There is such a broad diversity of outlook and ideology within the party, I find it difficult to imagine it could maintain its coherence.
“There is such a broad diversity of outlook and ideology within the party, I find it difficult to imagine it could maintain its coherence.”
Yes I agree, only time will tell, if we vote yes to independence
You mean like free nursery care, free uni tuition, free personal care for the elderly, free prescriptions etc. All the stuff we have had in Scotland for many years.
When will Scots finally realise it is a wasted vote voting British Labour in Scotland.
It’s always amusing to read your blog Craig.
Unfortunately it’s also easy to zone out when, in the second para you opine such gems as “The ultra-hard Brexit he (BJ) is pushing”
Ultra hard ? WTF that ??
How many times does the obscuration of Democracy have to be played out to the Numpties ???
No doubt you’ll be bleating shortly about the Election being “advisory”…….
The EU referendum was advisory- get over it.
It seems our host is dreaming six impossible things before, during and after every mealie the day.
The first task for this Tory government is to get re-elected, they will have to make themselves popular to do that. Becoming the most unpopular government in UK political history is not on their agenda. They will observe the end of austerity in the breech rather than the observance, but into that breech they must go. This drunk did study the classics don’t forget, the Bullingdon club are louts, not idiots.
Scotland is a non sequitur. Even if every Scottish seat had gone SNP it would not achieve independence. You’re in a negotiated political union, same as the Catalonians, and you need agreement in Westminster for a referendum. Your talk of UDI is beyond ridiculous, especially when accompanied with vainglorious dreams of emulating Ireland’s independence. Craig Murray with a whisky in one hand, and a bayonet on a broomstick in the other……laughable.
There seems to be many on the gravy train in the SNP you now realise, those for whom that gravy train is their only goal, and the aims of the SNP nothing. Nice of you to catch up Craig.
It’s just an election old friend, we lost, that’s the shit part of democracy, live with it…_
The Tories have nothing to offer to ordinary people other than Brexit, which is why this is their first sizeable majority since Thatcher. Their manifesto made it plain that they see austerity as a permanent reality, it is what their ideology and donors demand. They no longer have council homes to flog off or any public utilities to Tell Sid about. So once the reality of their Trump Brexit unfolds I do not see how they hold any of these post-industrial working-class seats.
“You’re in a negotiated union, same as the Catalans.”
More misinformed rubbish. Where do you get such factually incorrect nonsense.
I was there, a bit before your time I accept, but for me 1707 seems like it was only yesterday…_
Digger UK
More nonsense .
Two years ago, an estimated 61.5% of voters under the age of 40 voted Labour. Yesterday, according to the Tory “Lord” “Belize” Ashcroft, Labour won 57% of the votes of those aged 18-24, 55% from 25-34s, and only 45% from 35-44s. Does it seem likely that so many in these demographics decided to switch away from Labour? So having to fall into debt to pay university fees and facing a future stuck in private rented accommodation weren’t issues, then? Really? Or did the Tory-connected “postal vote management” company Idox lend a helping a hand in achieving the election result? Which seems more likely?
Tory Votes: weighed, bought & sold in brown envelopes.
I wish Craig would get back to casting his beady eye on establishment geopolitical shenanigans rather than these idiotic rants. He’s making a right twit of himself. His predictions of the last few days have been so delusional and out of step with reality, it’s frankly embarrassing to read. It’s like Polly Toynbee with her hair on fire.
There is not going to be an “Ultra hard Brexit” because Johnson, as well as being a liberal, is at least half Remainer himself and no longer has to rely on the ERG headbangers to get his way.
Scotland is not going to leave the UK because when all the concessions and compromises to the EU and UK are added up prior to Indyref3 (the decider) “independence” will be so soft and spongy as to be pointless.
Get back to your day job Mr Murray. You’re making a fool of yourself.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/12/general-election-2019-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-boris-johnson-results-exit-poll
I misread the caption on the photo on the above article as “Boris Johnson urges UK to ‘let the heiling begin’ … “
Funny you should mention heiling. Tommy Robinson – the man who “somehow” managed to escape from US immigration officials at JFK airport in New York – has announced that he as joined the Tory party. Note that if he has joined the party then his application to join must have been accepted. The Tory Partei, in other words, has welcomed this fascist and racist piece of sh*t.
Outside Downing Street today, a far right wing mob were chanting Robinson’s (assumed) name. Robinson himself declared “Dominic Cummings, your country salutes you”.
Look Who’s Back [in Number 10].
Why take what the government tells you about results at face value?
Why even trust them at all?
I wouldn’t put it past them to falsify the results en masse.
After all, there were no OECD observers, were there?
And if the government and the establishment have nothing to hide here why didn’t they invite those observers.
In any case, these elections were neither fair nor free nor universal nor were they clean.
We should now demand recounts and verification in the presence of, and under supervision of, members of the public.
The knives are out at the Guardian – as usual. Freedland, Toynbee et al gathering their most vituperative comments about Corbyn. It’s ALL his fault, they say. But almost no criticism of the LibDems, whose performance was absolutely dire. Two-thirds of the Guardian’s readership still really do think it is a paper of the left.
The former left-wing media is suffering from schizophrenia. It complains about the NHS being slowly disbanded but slags off the party that wants to treasure it. It attacks the greedy and selfish wealthy but cannot tolerate Labour’s tax proposals that would stop the ever widening wealth divide. It complains there is no affordable housing but slags off the party leader who wants to build millions of cheaper homes.
The Guardian has printed more than 400 anti-Corbyn articles in the last four years. Yet there is nothing about Corbyn that is more radical than Clemet Attlee, who was never described as a “marxist” even by the most rabid right wing press. The fact is that Britain is more than half full of Brexiteers who have no grasp of the fact that the EU has given them unprecedented consumer rights, human rights, freedom of movement, and a fairer society. Welsh leavers who are celebrating their Tory wins have forgotten that the EU has over the years pumped BILLIONS into Wales, as they also have into Cornwall and many other poorer regions.
We have arrived at the end of Leftism. I agree with Craig. Within a few months there will be riots on the streets when people realise they have just voted in the meanest, most right wing government in modern history.
I don’t think I’ll ever even look at the Guardian again after this election, or listen to the BBC. They have spent three years trying to destroy the Labour leadership and then wonder why they don’t win.
Yes I feel exactly the same. I have not been able to have the bbc radio on, or look at the guardian website. I feel betrayed by them and think that they have acted shamefully. We gave up our TV license over a year ago and I can’t see us buying another one . Do you think they are aware of what they have done, how deceitful they have been? What do their journalists get out of the lies and smears ? Perhaps they feel their jobs depend on doing what they have done ? But I sometimes think of Ben Elton’s book Stark and wonder….
I suggest you look at Gary Younge’s article.
They have families and mortgages to pay as well as a reasonable lifestyle to protect.
I have given up on all BBC News for some time now. Switched to Ch4.
All the crap ordinary people have had to take from the Tories these past nine years were all done while we are in the EU. The EU did nothing to save any of the 130.000 poor and disabled who died, it did nothing to stop zero hour contracts, and the increasing number of homeless will tell us society is becoming more unfair not fairer.
All this and more ensures when the riots kick off they’ll be big and the damage done will be devastating. More than just a few on here may wonder if the election wasn’t honest. If so we’ve been truly disenfranchised and unrest will be the only means of effecting change.
‘The EU did nothing’
Of course not. Its called Sovereignity.
Our sovereign government inflicted these things on us.
“Yet there is nothing about Corbyn that is more radical than (Clement) Attlee“.
Yes – that’s a very important point. A quibble is that state payment of tuition fees was only introduced in the early 1960s – by a Tory government – but on the general point you are absolutely right: this was merely a social democratic programme. Jeremy Corbyn’s language has been much more moderate than say Aneurin Bevan’s was in some famous instances.
And you read this excrement, even dare to spread their odourous exhaustions here?
Unfortunately for those of us south of the border, there are few possible responses to the election result except to let the Tories do their worst and wait for events to take their course. It is fairly obvious that we cannot defeat the Tory/establishment machine at the ballot box. Whether or not the election was actually honestly conducted (and I have my doubts), what we do know is that the media will stop at almost nothing to destroy opposition parties and smear opposition politicians, and that the Tories/establishment have their tentacles in the opposition parties too to destroy them from within if necessary. Corbyn was hung out to dry, and given lack of support and the outright opposition from within Labour, and of course in the media, it is in some ways remarkable Labour did as well as they did.
Sadly for the country, the Tories now have untramelled power and will do what they want to until, sometime, they overreach themselves, or there is civil disorder, or economic collapse. And when that happens, the people and institutions who might have stepped in to fight against the right-wing will have been so weakened, discredited and demoralised they won’t be able to do anything to help.
There are rumblings that there were some startling irregularities win this election, but it is doubtful the media is going to touch them with a barge pole.
If you have any links on this, please share them with us here, because they’ll be very unlikely to surface in the MSM unless a real stink is raised.
Just stuff I’ve seen on Whatsapp groups about people going to vote and being told they had already voted, Tory activists telling people at polling stations (who they profiled as being likely Labour voters) that they need ID to vote, Tory activists turning up at polling stations en masse and taking all the parking spaces up to frustrate voters in strong Labour areas. The biggest one involves accusations concerns unusual activity around postal voting.
The usual unusual activity, then.
Let me postulate that one reason that the Labour Party failed to win the election is that their most vocal supporters appear to lack a close association with observable reality.
In terms of left wing credentials The 2019 Labour Party manifesto most closely approximates the Labour Party manifesto of 1983. Jeremy Corbyn has more in common with Michael Foot than with any other post war leader of the Labour Party. Both Foot and Corbyn were reviled by the media. In 1983 there was no internet and the power of the press was materially greater than it is today.
In 1983 under the leadership of Michael Foot the Labour Party obtained 209 seats – which is 6 more seats than the Labour Party achieved under Jeremy Corbyn.
With these facts in mind consider the suggestion that “in some ways it is remarkable Labour did as well as they did” and se if any conclusions suggest themselves.
Nothing to do with the Labour manifesto.
A better argument may have been media reporting of the Labour manifesto, but when you look at the facts, the maths, it’s not even that.
Splitting the Labour vote through Brexit divisions is the key to this Tory win.
And in that the Lib Dems and Lab remainers played their part as much as the SDP did in their day.
Corbyn’s responsibility lies in his support for Remain/Second referendum as against his previous position of supporting the Brexit vote.
He’ll have been pressured into this by SNP, Lib Dems and Lab remainers with a view to some sort of coalition.
Probably realised he couldn’t out-Brexit Boris.
In addition to the BLiarites that Craig mentions. I have seen Falconer (ex Attorney General and expert at subsuming an inquest into an inquiry – Dr Kelly) and the curly headed Jonathan Powell (BLiar’s chief of staff in the sofa cabinet) on TV at various times today giving their opinions. They were probably paid too.
Brilliant Stuff From Jonathan Cook –
” This was an election of two illusions.
…The first helped persuade much of the British public to vote for the very epitome of an Eton toff, a man who not only has shown utter contempt for most of those who voted for him but has spent a lifetime barely bothering to conceal that contempt. For him, politics is an ego-trip, a game in which others always pay the price and suffer, a job he is entitled to through birth and superior breeding…
https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2019-12-13/corbyns-defeat-slayed-the-lefts-last-illusion/?
Yes Brianfujisan:
Jonathan Cook was really operating on all cylinders there, wasn’t he! Very eloquent and accurate.
The thing is this Craig, anything could have happened the last 2 years to get in the way of Indy Ref 2, and did twice at least – 2 snap unscheduled General Elections. Imagine if the Indy Ref was planned, dated, ballots printed, and Westminster decided to completely muck it up with some silly irrelevant election.
Or we could have had more extensions, A50 revoked, the so-called People’s Vote, minority unworkable Westminster parliament after unworkable Westminster parliament. All of these made planning impossible.
Now, with this 80 majority BoJo Government, there’s 5 years of “stability” and certainty. And we get to see what the SNP have had planned all along. After all, they’ve had 80 years to plan it!
it’s Straight Ahead for Independence. Warp 10 – engage!
A very sensible post. Keep focussed and stay away from your model ships.
So glad to see the good people of Scotland are getting geared up for protest. I hope the rallies are huge. And that they start to spill over, sparking action down south. We down in England need to be shepherded by example, it seems.
No need for futile protest rallies, just a polite letter to Westminster, like Norway informing Sweden of its decision to be independent in 1905.
Scotland will get its independence. When North Sea oil runs out.
I wish that was true, marmite. From experience I can tell you that English protest culture is much more activist than anything you’ll find in Scotland.
I guess 300 years of tyranny has taken its toll. Some are straightforwardly suffering from a sort of Stockholm syndrome, others are just institutionalised, and a significant number can’t see past the fact that they personally are doing pretty well — selfish bastards basically.
When it comes to a debate about independence, all three categories above are supported and fed by the British state and British MSM (“British” being a sort of code word that’s commonly used to mean English).
We are on a race to change things before it’s too late to change.
Very true. Remember the poll tax, opposed by mere grumbles in Scotland. Alas.
It is easy to get carried away on a tide of enthusiasm for the SNP win in Scotland. So the SNP won 48 seats out of 59 seats on 45% of the vote with a 68% turnout. As an aside the seats for the other parties are a bit skewed because the labour with 18.6% of the votes gets one seat and Lib Dems with 9.5%, almost half, get 4 seats.
So we are not really clear as to whether there is clear majority for independence in Scotland. If you advocate UDI based on this it could seem undemocratic, and the electorate at least in England have signalled displeasure at being ignored and dealt a blow to both Labour and the LDs.
I am not sure how this can be resolved, you really cannot achieve Scottish independence unless you can prove a majority mandate asking the specific question. I understand that of course you will need approval for the referendum. I think that demanding a referendum is the only democratic way to achieve this, and any action should be aimed at this rather than UDI.
In a related matter, what would happen if the 48 SNP Westminster MPS boycotted Westminster as Sein Fein has done in NI, would that have any effects on the workings of Westminster, Would Westminster be able to paralyse Holyrood, by for example withholding funds?
We’ve already seen where asking for Dominion status leads, it’s pointless and wasteful. Let’s just get on with it. Now.
“Dear Boris, We’re leaving. Regards, Nicola. PS Your dinner’s in the bucket.”
Ian
It is not that I am not sympathetic, au contraire, I am jealous, I have no way to turn. But these things are easy to say but very difficult to carry out with many practical issues to be overcome unless you really wish to have a civil war or a war of independence.
I think if there is truly an overwhelming feeling that an Indyref2 would be supported by the majority and then pushing for this is the way forward but I dread to think of how the establishment will manipulate and act on UDI.
(Perhaps envious rather than jealous.) I referred earlier to Norway’s 1905 Swedish letter, which was easy to write, deliver and understand. No-one has looked back since.
Quite right Envious rather than jealous, I should know better.
Going for UDI without establishing a majority does seem a bit rash. 40% of Scottish Labour supporters favour independence. (0.4*18.6)= 7.4 + 45 + 1(Scottish Greens) = 53.4%. Round up to 54% to cover 16 & 17 year olds. Another couple of percent to cover EU nationals resident in Scotland (same rules as 2014) and it’s starting to look like a clear majority.
I would not recommend Scottish independence – but would be delighted if Scotland wishes to act as economic suicide bombers to deliver another hard blow to the EU.
Think about how this works out. The UK leaves the EU and Scotland leaves the UK and presents itself manacles in hand to the EU. The EU refuses to accept the surrender of Scotland – and so where does that leave Scotland?
If an independent Scotland is admitted to the EU then Spain must surely leave. Who would choose Scotland over Spain?
The future could be so bright – Glasgow twinned with Pyongyang.
Loony,
You are talking unionist fancy. The Spanish government has repeatedly said it has no objection to Scotland joining the EU, as they regard it as legally in a different position to Catalonia.
Anything Loony doesn’t recommend sounds pretty good already.
I quite fancy the Pyongyang route..
“General election 2019 LIVE: PM rejects Sturgeon’s demand for Scottish IndyRef2 in phone call
Boris Johnson “reiterated his unwavering commitment to strengthening the union” in a call to the SNP leader”
from Sky
There ya go.
There was definitely a plan, at one stage, that the UK would be broken up, a Europe of the regions.
So, your more powerful states would be reduced, with power moving to bureaucratic centres.
Then, for some reason, this plan was shelved and we’re seeing old national powers reasserting themselves.
It’s in these new circumstances Scottish independence now finds itself.
Anyway, it’s very important to remember that Irish independence was achieved through support from powerful Globalist oligarchs, and not through the will of the Irish people themselves.
“Anyway, it’s very important to remember that Irish independence was achieved through support from powerful Globalist oligarchs, and not through the will of the Irish people themselves.”
I’m under the impression that after the British crushed the Easter Rising violently executing prisoners unable to stand, that the Irish population reviled by British brutality changed their attitude towards Irish independence.
In the December 1918 election, the republican party Sinn Féin won a landslide victory in Ireland.
My point would be that revulsion at the executions was not enough for Irish independence. Massively winning the election across the country was not enough.
Hundreds of years of oppression was not enough.
What was needed was support and financing from Globalist oligarchs who themselves wanted to diminish the British Empire.
That backing afforded the protection within which the activist volunteers could operate.
Scotland needs that kind of protection to take things forward.
“Scotland needs that kind of protection to take things forward.”
This is not 1918 all that is required is the agreement that Boris Johnson will adhere to the outcome of a democratic Scottish referendum on independence if yes wins.
What also really matters is that such a referendum will be recognised by the international community, and I’ve no reason to suggest it won’t.
Nicola Sturgeon has already made several trips to the EU, and although I’m not privy to what took place I’m pretty sure the EU would recognise the the result if yes wins.
Of course the bellicose British empire in the past would’ve crushed what they saw as rebels and if need be partioned the country as they did in India and Ireland before giving up, thankfully I don’t see that as a option for the British this time around.
You don’t need to go to India or anywhere else for examples. Just go to the genocide of Culloden.
“all that is required is the agreement that Boris Johnson will adhere to the outcome of a democratic Scottish referendum on independence if yes wins.”
Well, sure, if those who are backing him see it in those terms, then fine.
Nothing to worry about, but the Scottish vote itself.
I was thinking more about circumstances in which those backing him are against Scottish independence.
“Of course the bellicose British empire in the past would’ve crushed what they saw as rebels and if need be partioned the country as they did in India and Ireland before giving up, thankfully I don’t see that as a option for the British this time around.”
The British are masters at this stuff.
What they’ll do first is peel off the soft secessionists, and divide you amongst yourselves. Then there’ll be events which are linked to the harder secessionists.
In no time at all there’ll be the good secessionists and the bad secessionists. I’m putting this mildly.
That’s just the beginning.
Then you’ve got a problem.
That’s when you need equally powerful oligarchs who want to see the break up of the UK, and even then you’ve still got years of fighting on your hands.
The problem with the SNP version of independence for Scotland is the party’s desire and willingness to adopt the Euro. If it does that, there will be no advantage to getting independence.
See – Independent Scotland would have to agree to adopt Euro after joining EU – https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-independent-scotland-would-have-to-adopt-euro-after-joining-eu
Adopting the Euro would be a total disaster for Scotland. It has to maintain an independent currency – not the Sterling either.
See also Eurozone Dystopia – video presentation by Bill Mitchell – http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=35580
“The problem with the SNP version of independence for Scotland is the party’s desire and willingness to adopt the Euro. If it does that, there will be no advantage to getting independence.”
So please enlighten us all as to why in the long term adopting the Euro would be such a bad thing, especially when the likes of Ireland ranks among the best countries in the world to live in.
https://www.irishpost.com/news/ireland-ranks-among-best-countries-world-quality-life-according-un-report-175092
Read and listen to the links. I put them there for a reason.
Yes, we know, there’s always a problem. What currency, what flag, what stamps, what football strip, what about the gold reserves we’ll want to transport in an armoured train? Just pat us on the head and make us a nice cup of tea, with two lumps until we calm down. Nurse knows best.
More nonsense.
I agree in spades with your last point Craig. Except I think the SNP group should agree first on which point of abject insult and ignorance to Scotland will cause them to walk out and never go back and to challenge the other Scottish MP’s to do the same. We will see how ‘constitutional’ the LibDem’s really are not.
By playing the Westminster game we tacitly admit to having to play by their rules. By absenting our representatives from the game we get to make our own rules. We can and should make Scotland ungovernable for Westminster and Whitehall. If you read Prof Tom Devine’s excellent histories of Scotland you will discover that after the abolition of our parliament Westminster always needed local satraps to administer Scotland on their behalf. Not least because of our separate legal and other systems. ScotGov should stop being that satrap.
I got an email from ‘Nicola Sturgeon’ this evening. I replied politely pointing out that because of GRA and her actions in quite deliberately not consulting any women’s groups only TRA’s means I may NEVER vote SNP again.
Amongst other things I pledged to vote Women’s Equality Party if they stand in the Constituency and Wings on the List. I don’t see how the Rev can get out of forming a Wings party now.
That List vote btw will be a loss to the Greens as they usually get my List vote. But they are if anything further down the woke rabbit hole than the SNP are.
I have replied politely to very such email thus far and not been dignified with any sort of response. This is obviously not any sort of consultation or coversation with Scotland. This is a command from on high. Sorry First Minister I am a citizen not a serf.
Could Nicola be busy with something other than replying to your polite reply on a Friday evening? Could you not wait patiently until maybe Monday morning?