UPDATED Good Morning Britain trumpeted its latest poll today showing a net increase in the Tory lead since last week of four points, to 45% to 31% over Labour.
As you know, opinion pollsters do not just take the raw figures provided by respondents, they weight those respondents to provide a representative sample by age, gender, location, past voting history etc.
But when you drill down into the headline results from the weighted samples, they make no sense at all. For example Survation in this poll have the Conservatives sweeping up Labour in London by 46.8% to 41.2%. In 2017 the Conservatives got hammered in London by 33.1% to 54.5%. Survation are showing a swing from Labour to Conservative in London of 13.5%. That is absolutely massive, and nobody believes that is happening on the ground. The Tories could well lose several more seats in London.
Similarly in Scotland, Survation show the SNP vote down nearly nine per cent compared to 2017, at 33.2%. Again, nobody believes for a moment the SNP vote is really as low as that.
Of course I understand that the sub sample for each area from which these results are calculated is very small. But expecting that a number of sub-samples, which at the regional level are self-evidently nonsense, chance to balance out into an accurate national picture when you add them all up, is ludicrous. I am only looking at one poll here, and not particularly picking on Survation for any reason. But I hope this demonstrates that opinion polls should be viewed with extreme scepticism.
Original Post:
I live in a marginal constituency, where the excellent Joanna Cherry of the SNP has a lead of just over 1,000 over the Tories. If the most recent opinion polls are correct, the parties’ standings at this moment are similar to the result last time, the momentum is with the Tories and this should be a key Tory target. Yet I have not received one single Tory leaflet (and I live on one of the main residential streets) nor have I seen one single Tory campaigner, including when I have been out delivering leaflets for Joanna Cherry myself. Nor have I seen one single Tory poster in a house.
It is not just on TV that the Tories have been skipping interviews and debates, they seem to have eschewed any semblance of a ground campaign too, in what presumably is a key target seat for them. Boris Johnson is not popular with any of the local residents I have spoken to, and there is no enthusiasm at all for Brexit in this part of Edinburgh. In short, I am absolutely unable to square the opinion polls with the evidence of my own eyes and ears.
What is your experience?
——————————————
Unlike our adversaries including the Integrity Initiative, the 77th Brigade, Bellingcat, the Atlantic Council and hundreds of other warmongering propaganda operations, this blog has no source of state, corporate or institutional finance whatsoever. It runs entirely on voluntary subscriptions from its readers – many of whom do not necessarily agree with the every article, but welcome the alternative voice, insider information and debate.
Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.
Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:
Alternatively:
Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB
Subscriptions are still preferred to donations as I can’t run the blog without some certainty of future income, but I understand why some people prefer not to commit to that.
Not only invisible on the streets but also at hustings.
Around here (Cornwall) the Tories have failed to turn up or send a deputy at almost all public hustings. Frequently they cite “security concerns” which is not only insulting to their constituents but also, if a genuine reason, is frankly giving in to terrorism.
They are, or should be, fighting to retain all 6 cornish seats, but are not attempting to mount any sort of visible campaign.
I too have had only one Tory leaflet, delivered by the postman, but two or three from Labour and countless quantities of LibDem litter by post and hand.
Something strange is certainly going on – if the Tories do win it seems unlikely to be on the basis of genuine votes…
Interesting to hear that their “tactics” are the same in the other south western extremity. Perhaps it makes them nervous to be so far from fast transport links back to London.
Hmmm, in addition to their absence citing ‘security concerns’ showing them to be the sort of Fraidy-Kats whom a sane person would want nowhere near power during a crisis, it also raises some interesting questions about what sort of country they’ve created after a decade of Tory rule. Is their anti-terrorism policy so inept that people campaigning for public office dare not to appear in public? Or is it that a decade of Tory social policies and politics has turned the country into such a raging mass of angry people that democracy can no longer function? Inquiring minds would like to know. Too bad noone showed up.
I of course would not expect to see the BBC covering either question.
@Roger – What about the other political parties? Are Labour campaigning much in Camborne and Redruth, and the LibDems in St Ives? Nice that in 2017 the Tory majority over Labour fell from 7000 to 1600 in the former, and over the LibDems from 2500 to 300 in the latter, St Ives being held by the LibDems from 1997 to 2015. The party that currently holds every single Cornish seat, including two with small majorities, isn’t attending hustings anywhere in the county? WTF are they doing? Cornwall being such a big place, surely they’re not all crossing the Tamar to canvass?
I actually only know one Conservative (a long standing party member) and he is ‘doing a Heseltine’ this election.
What the BBC didn’t show you https://www.facebook.com/james.norris.9237/videos/10157499849252199/UzpfSTExMTg3NzQ2MzM6MTAyMTU2OTk5MTcxMDcxMzQ/?epa=SEARCH_BOX
What they did show us from the same visit to Bristol today by Jeremy Corbyn. https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000c7hz/points-west-evening-news-09122019?fbclid=IwAR3Zyvqe61BA4JNWa-Y-n4nyT5VY01HNCutkc_wUWWv5CWdntmna4LlRHgE
I’m getting vote tory ads on MY YouTube!
Lol.
Noticed that myself Dungroanin.
Telegraph website (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/):
Jeremy Corbyn could win without gaining a seat, Tories warned: Tactical voting may mean Labour leader is closer to becoming PM at election than people think, internal memo suggests.
Guardian website (https://www.theguardian.com/uk):
Party leader ‘very confident’ message has been delivered two days ahead of vote.
Don’t be put off by media negativity folks. Make sure that you and everyone you know gets out and votes on Thursday.
Apparently on Saturday the Sun published a piece by its political editor Tom Newton-Dunn “exposing” a wicked network full of foreigners and terrorists that has taken over the Labour Party. The information came from a group of British “former intelligence officers”, they said, as they directed readers to a website called “Hijacked Labour” featuring a terrifying map with terrifying lines on it, joining together terrifying nodes containing “information” sourced to sites such as Aryan Unity.
I’m not making this up.
Describing it in the Guardian article I linked to, Daniel Trilling traces the map back to a graphic called “Traitor’s Chart”, which was promoted through Breitbart. Apparently the evil has a name, and it’s “cultural Marxism”.
How on earth could this attempted re-run of the Zinoviev letter get into the Sun five days before a general election without Tory HQ involvement?
Just have a read of that some stuff!! It goes on for ages about Seumas Milne. Apparently Richard “Paris Tunnel” Dearlove, former MI6 chief, reckons Seumas shouldn’t get sight of any state secrets. How about a Corbyn administration tells Dearlove he’s not to comment on intelligence matters, or to discuss them with foreign powers such as the US, and that if he does he’ll get locked up in Belmarsh? Dearlove is due to be locked up anyway when the Fiat Uno clip gets released. Good on you, Seumas! I’ve always thought you were far shrewder than that nightclub mobster “OODA loop” fan, Dominic “Eugenics” Cummings!
“Do they really think we are so powerful?”
I hope I’m not the only person interested in this. The Sun is in a sense the most important newspaper in the country at election time. The interesting thing isn’t just that they came out with this ludicrous material against Jeremy Corbyn and the evil network of terrorists, people who love the IRA, Hamas, and Hugo Chavez. Tories will always come out with that crap, just as smoke comes out of their ears when they think of women living in council flats raising small children; working class people getting treated for free on the NHS; mixed-race marriages; prisoners getting three meals a day; or school pupils being exposed to the idea that the British empire was wicked. No lengthy proof is required of the proposition that this piece was part of the Tory campaign. (It appeared in the Sun five days before a general election. The Sun is supporting the real Tory party, not Tory Blair as they did for three elections beginning in 1997. QED.) What’s interesting is that this article was published and then pulled, within hours. There is disarray among our enemies. Perhaps they are fighting each other? Perhaps soon there will be panic? Reports from spies in the enemy camp suggest that they are biting their nails to the quick thinking of what they might see on their screens at 10.01pm on Thursday when the exit poll comes out.
If they’re looking for traitors then perhaps they should look at individuals with Russian connections and Funding in 10 Downing Street.
Looks like Johnson threw away the Election yesterday and the BBC & ITV ‘jounalists’ once again revealed as Tory Stooges and cheerleaders.
Perhaps we should now eagerly anticipate another ‘Security Theatre’ event to manufactured in the dying days of the campaign to try and turn it around?
Another large number of the “wrong sort of Jews” endorsing Corbyn.
https://skwawkbox.org/2019/12/09/exclusive-union-of-orthodox-hebrew-congregations-head-leader-of-35000-jewish-citizens-endorses-corbyn/
I think survation have been knobbled. Can’t have anyone actually making useful predictions – all must trumpet Tory victory everywhere, I’m surprised they’re not outpolling the Republicans in Alabama the way predictions are being parped out.
Craig I live in Tory held OSC.
Luke Graham team has been out once. Snp have blitz area repeatedly and we are higher than when we lost it to Tories in 2017.
I have had no Tory material through the door only the bulk posted leaflets from all parties.
Neighbouring Pete Wishart NP Constituency similar.
One key point many work class Tories have decided not to vote as Boris Johnston is not liked.
Looks like pollsters are wrong in the two Perthshire Constituencies
“But expecting that a number of sub-samples, which at the regional level are self-evidently nonsense, chance to balance out into an accurate national picture when you add them all up, is ludicrous.”
Actually not ludicrous, that is pretty much exactly the idea of the statistics involved. You cannot expect to get an accurate picture from 100 samples, however with 1000, you will expect to be within a few percent.
This is why any of the regional breakdowns could well be ‘wrong’, like 10 – 15% wrong. One can fairly expect to find one or two that are ‘self evidently nonsense’. But you cannot expect all the regional samples to be wrong in the same direction. They can (or should) be expected to blend together into a far more accurate prediction.
The poll isn’t intended to provide accurate regional breakdowns. Survation would not possibly claim as such. The reason it is being broken down into regions is to provide a more accurate sampling method for the UK figure – if they just chose 1000 people randomly – e.g. from name data – there would be a loss in accuracy due to the regional bias of the sample.
If you were to ask a professional statistician, I am very confident he/she would agree with this comment.
please note I am not ruling out the possibility that the pollsters may be corrupted. I’d like to think they were not.
They don’t have to be: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
[ Youtube: “Leading Questions” – Yes, Prime Minister (BBC) ]
their methodology is here: https://www.survation.com/methodology/
Yes. It’s like tossing a set of five coins 100 times, each time in a different town. Altogether you get 257 heads and 243 tails, so you conclude the coin is probably fair. Wait – look at subsample no.37, the thirty-seventh toss, which you carried out in Ipswich. You got 5 heads out of 5 that time. So the prediction is that the coin is unfair when it’s in Ipswich, is it? Perhaps there’s a magnetic anomaly that only exists in Ipswich? But that’s ludicrous, so do you conclude that somebody must have faked the result of that subsample? No, of course not. The logic. in doing that would be faulty. Cf., as I said, the “law of large numbers”. Reliability of conclusions increases with the size of the sample. Don’t assume there should be the same reliability for only a small subsample within that sample. There isn’t. There’s less. That doesn’t mean you don’t get more reliability by summing up over less reliable subsamples.
Whether our experience and knowledge suggests there’s a systematic bias in this polling towards overstating support for the Tories is another matter. There may well be.
Beat me to it! Assuming that sampling errors are uncorrelated, yes, summing up the subsamples should leave us with a relatively smaller total sampling error.
Here’s a prayer that the excellent Johann Cherry has a wonderful election day and her celebrations last well into the next day. 🙂
I was watching some of the Brexit debates from the Westminster parliament over the last year. Ms. Cherry is very impressive. Best of luck to her.
Opinion polls like the one you describe bear no resemblance to what I am hearing from friends and aquaintances at all – if anything the feeling on the ground from my perspective is quite the reverse.
I’m out on the campaign trail in a Tory safe seat. I still think the tories will keep it, maybe.
It’s even possible to hope for a labour majority in the election. But let’s wait till Friday the 13th…_
On the 30th of November, Craig claimed in his blog that Johnson was drunk at the cenotaph service on Remembrance Sunday.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/11/free-the-truth-a-short-speech/
Then the story went dead. If Craig was wrong he would have had a shit storm on his head, civil action perhaps…..but no, nothing. Seems no attempt has even been made to make this blog take the allegations down.
Was Johnson drunk again today when he got his interview about the child on the hospital floor so badly wrong? His body language, facial expressions, communications and actions were all very odd. The pocketing of the journalists phone is ripe for meme of the day competitions. Maybe he’s tired…_
Indeed. Craig was so emphatic in his assertion it left the reader in no doubt that he wasn’t wrong about it.
Midnight and still no data tables by ICM on their election polling page or their report on poll released today and quoted everywhere.
I think they may be in hot water for failing to disclose. Expect a slap on wrist or a massive fine. Happy to be hanged as sheep.
During canvassing Aberfeldy and area, my pals tell me some Tories in Highland Perthsire being put off by Johnson, more liberal minded ones. Need a decent turnout to make it academic though. Cannae see them picking up much there with their usual target voting strategy (bigots, racists, selfish arrogant bastards). Maybe the third one but they would be voting for them anyway. Think Pete Wishart on a decent turnout should be a fairly clear winner. Poor turnout (55-60%) then its tight. 70% the Tories get gubbed.
All I was told was some Tories put off Johnson, the rest is my take.
I am very depressed and concerned about this election.
Specifically scale and size of lies the Tories are spreading on Facebook with their unprecedented war-chest and clinical targeting in the seats they need: https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/thousands-of-misleading-conservative-ads-side-step-scrutiny-thanks-to-facebook-policy/.
It is not a democracy if you cannot put ideas in the open, discuss them and have them challenged.
They also seem to be leading the most underhand, dishonourable campaign in electoral history.
People were warned about this three years ago, by a small but dogged group or journalists and researchers. They have, in that time, been ignored, sneered at, and smeared, on this site as well.
Mainly by people who don’t understand social media the depth of its manipulative power. It is little wonder the tories aren’t bothering with the old elections tactics and are concentrating their considerable firepower on avenues which are exempt from scrutiny and debate. It works, as it worked previously. TV in particular has no clue how to address it. The newspapers are in the main willing accomplices. It was said, three years ago, it is possible that in the future we won’t be able to have free and fair elections. What is worse, though, is we won’t know if we have had.
Arguably people who pick pick pick their smartphones all the time and choose to “socialise” with their “friends” mainly through the CIA’s “Facebook” don’t deserve the vote, or perhaps they deserve to live under fascism. The terrible thing is what about the rest of us.
Our local Toxic Tory didn’t show up to the Dundee West hustings tonight – and she was duly pilloried by all the other candidates for her cowardice. Nobody represented the Tories at all, either on stage or in the audience.
The clear winner was the Labour candidate, Jim Malone, a former firefighter and Trades Unionist. He was the only one who wasn’t heckled or jeered. He’s a home-grown constituency representative, and his authenticity shines through. He has worked with Jeremy Corbyn on Palestinian rights since the 80s.
Notably Jim didn’t malign the SNP’s incumbent Chris Law. Unfortunately Chris didn’t bless us with a visitation tonight, so Stuart Hosie had to stand in for him – again! Chris hasn’t shown up to any of the previous hustings events either. Poor show! (or should that be “poor no-show”?) The major criticism levelled at him is that he seems detached and aloof, and sightings of him in the constituency are rare. He’s more of a compassionate capitalist than a sympathetic socialist: a self-styled Laird of the Law. Mind you, from a progressive left-wing perspective, his voting record does him credit.
We’re fairly privileged here in Dundee West, as it’ll be a close contest between two decent candidates – which means, whoever you root for, the second favourite would be a reasonable consolation.
If the Tory candidate had actually shown up tonight, her hopes would have melted away like an ice sculpture under studio lights. Maybe she’s already evaporated?
Everything I’ve seen today suggests the wheels are coming off the Tory bus and Labour actually have a chance of winning on Thursday, i.e. winning more seats than the Tories rather than just doing enough to bring about a hung parliament.
Anyone notice how impartial the BBC was today in its coverage? Not one mention of antisemitism.
They’re all panicking.
Even Laura asked Boris an awkward question after she was caught spreading Tory fed lies on Twitter.
Rob Burley reportedly fuming at unwarranted criticism of BBC election coverage. Concedes there have been honest mistakes.
Verdict of the rest of the media (as ever): No case to answer.
We move on.
If you look at the way the BBC have been editing videos, plural, which they’ve admitted to, it’s hard to see how we could call any of it mistakes. It’s really very sinister and if it wasn’t for social media we’d probably never have known.
The BBC are now worried that Corbyn will win, despite their best efforts. That’s the sub plot.
There’s something happening on the ground, they see it, and it scares the life out of them.
Kuenssberg, Robinson, Peston should all be in jail.
The Guardian is full on with anti semitic nonsense through Harriet Sherwood’s “Anyone but Corbyn” polemic. Its Intel supervisory board has moved into panic mode. Sherwood was the Graun’s former Jerusalem correspondent.She has close links with Brigadier General Itai Brun, the former head of military intelligence research at the Israeli Defence Force and who created the Assad gas attack myth back in 2013.
The Guardian has however considerably softened its anti Corbyn stance, presumably because they hate Johnson even more and would not be able to defend him and maintain their veneer of being progressive.
Even George Monbiot has been converted
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/break-embargo-expose-press-lies-labour
And this is a good one about racism: ” there is no hierarchy in racism”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/racism-election-defined
The Limp Dumbs haven’t a hope of forming a government thanks to Moaning Jo’s political tin ear, so the Graun and the BBC have now retired to positions prepared in advance to facilitate another (expletive) hung parliament. The BBC will be all the keener not to rock Corbyn’s boat now Johnson’s dropping dark hints about the licence fee. Pass the popcorn…I am unable to take this charade seriously.
Exactly right.
Thanks for that. I have seen her stories too.
Marginal swing seat voter here. The Tory propaganda through the letterbox has noticeably increased – some of it risible faux-news pamphlets citing the deranged ramblings of Iain Austin. If that’s the best they’ve got, they should be fucked. Tory’s name seemed familiar, the same bloke that failed as regional Mayor and again as the Police and Crime Commissioner. Hopefully he’ll fail once more then bugger off.
Добрый день, @Idi. Ian Walker? YouGov’s MRP last week was predicting the Tories will remain in third place. Are you receiving any propaganda from the Brexit Party?
it makes some sense bevin.. thanks.. uk – usa – tied at the umbilical cord..
And “Nobody believed” that Donald Trump would win the presidency
A lot of outside observers thought Trump could win, and said so.
In radio 4 ‘s lunchtime news programme world at omr, instead of News , the BBC broadcast a major propaganda plug for the Tories. Ordinary sounding people were given a chance to play a game in which they used an image to describe different aspects of the election.
A brainstorming exercise which allowed people to use graphic images instead of arguments.
What image did you have for Corbyn? A homeless person , not a leader.
What about you? A skoda.
IN the lunch time News spot!
Yours. Disgusted. From Sewage Smells
Yes, I heard that too and completely agree with Giyane’s assessment. Designed by the Nudge Unit, I imagine.
Remember when Hillary was 98% certain to win in 2016 ? Such was the certainty that a certain UK turf accountant paid out on bets for her winning before the election had taken place.
Based upon the America sneezing model, there may be be some justification in surmising that the polling companies have discovered that its more profitable to promote than to report ?
I got 8 to 1 on Trump with a £45 stake. I’m still glad he won, even if the money’s long gone.
The polls are there to manage our expectations in anticipation of ballot stuffing.
Johnny
Not so fully a conspiracy. Seriously it is multifunctional. It produces a sense of despair and inevitability and may drive wavelets one way or another. Notice how the polls become the news labour will struggle to close the gap’ and such narratives put labour in a worse frame than they are and become the topics of long discussions by pundits.
It is really also a form of demonisation. The campaigning has really been going on for several years and the object was to remove the credibility of Corbyn from the outset. Remember when Corbyn was unelectable? He was elected labour leader twice and against all expectations also improved the party’s standing in 2017. At least this has died the death and we no longer here it.
How many times in this election have we heard this “I like labour policies and hate the liar Johnson and the Tories but I don’t like Corbyn but I will vote for the Tories “?
I’ll give you another. I’ve voted Labour or SNP all my life, but I’m voting for a sitting Tory this time, because (a) I believe him to be a competent and experienced constituency MP who is more or less in touch with his constituents, and despite being personally against Brexit, has supported the referendum result to date (I’m a leaver, and an unapologetic one). (b) Because, whatever the many faults of the Tories and their idiot leader, their (disposable) promises are less economically destructive than Corbyn’s (disposable) promises. While I am wholeheartedly against runaway consumer capitalism and the stranglehold the financial debt industry has on every aspect of life, this is the worst possible moment to attempt a proletarian revolution in the UK, even if the anaesthetised public were suddenly to realise what is being done to it by global capital. (c) Corbyn’s support is shaky, and his grasp of economics negligible. A year or two into his government, failing a spectacular majority, which isn’t remotely possible, he will be replaced by a Blairite, prolonging the Brexit frustration indefinitely while Labour gets back into bed with the bankers. (d) I live in an area where the immigration of cheap labour has diluted the identity of many communities to vanishing point. And (e) the untrammelled growth of violent crime perpetrated by migrants from very different cultures is not something which Labour is prepared to reduce at source. The Tories are a very, very bad job, but they’re the best on offer and they’re unionists. Horrifying? Yes. Keep calm and carry on.
Nothing to do with ‘antisemitism’, btw. That’s a blatant and obvious smear demonstrably emanating from the Blair faction, and it’s despicable. My reasons for mistrusting Corbyn are entirely different.
Corbyn has tweeted these examples of media bias. Liars. Kuenssberg’s contribution is there.
Jeremy Corbyn
@jeremycorbyn
9h
This never happened.
Invented by the Tories to divert your attention from a child having to lie on a hospital floor; reported by media that didn’t bother to check if it was true.
This is what media bias looks like.https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1204168230346067968/photo/1
‘Matt Hancock, the health secretary, was dispatched to Leeds General Infirmary in an effort to show that the party was taking the case seriously. Johnson’s team wrongly briefed that a Tory aide was “punched” outside the hospital by a leftwing activist, in what was interpreted as a deliberate attempt to deflect attention from the bad news day the Tories were having. The claims quickly turned out to be untrue when video footage showed that the adviser was accidentally brushed in the face. The Conservatives have now been accused of “lying and cheating” to distract from their bad day.’
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/09/tories-accused-lying-distract-photo-boy-hospital-floor
The same Hancock tried to use the race card against labour in a hustings
“Black people, Muslims, people of colour and Jews would have looked on in horror last week when the health secretary, Matt Hancock, faced with a hostile crowd in west Suffolk, brandished the “race card” – abruptly becoming “passionate about ridding from our politics … the antisemitic, outrageous, racist attitude of Jeremy Corbyn”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/racism-election-defined
@ Mary – “This is what media bias looks like.https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1204168230346067968/photo/1”
Brilliant.
Obi Wan Corbyn was also excellent on BBC1’s Breakfast this morning, smoothly and calmly handling Louise Minchin’s desperate non-stop hostile questions.
Watch from 2:17:20:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000c6q5/breakfast-10122019
Reportedly there were 700 canvassers in Putney yesterday evening. I’ve been going to marginals since the election was called, for Labour of course, and I see at least a minimum of 70 people at each session.
I was also out campaigning in 2017, but this is completely on another level. It’a quite inspiring really. Lots of new canvassers out, young and old.
JC4PM
What was the performance of Survation like in 2017 (if they existed)? Anyone know?
PS. They claim to have done very well in 2017. Whether this applies to London, I don’t know.
Wikipedia has a page on polling for GE2017. Result (8 June) was Con/Lab 43.5%/41.0% (figures for GB only), a 2.5% Con lead.
Survation figures:
26-27 May 43%-37%,
2-3 June 41%-40%,
3 June 40%-39%,
6-7 June 41%-40%,
so Con leads of 6%, 1%, 1%, 1%.
So yes, they did do well compared to other pollsters who were predicting much bigger Tory leads. This time Survation are near the other end of the spectrum and for data collected on 5-7 Dec they get 45%-31%, a Con lead of 14%. I strongly doubt the Tories will win by that kind of margin.
Polling organisations help influence voting (and abstention), as many have observed. The other thing they do during elections is to promote their services to big political and business customers, including services which aren’t made public. These services include both researching opinion and influencing it. They are marketing companies.
The YouGov MRP which isn’t on that Wikipedia list was very accurate last time. They’ve done one already this time, and their final MRP will be out tonight around 10pm.
Interesting analysis Craig. In my own constituency – Blackpool North & Cleveleys – the sitting MP Paul Maynard has been bombarding households with electioneering leaflets, but has shunned every attempt at holding hustings or town hall meetings.
last night I watched Youthful Question Time, absolutely the best Question Time in many, many years
but the best most vibrant General Election podium slanging match, by far, really useful and did not seem staged, very lively
and watchable, not sure who came out best, probably The Greens.
Interesting. Tory heaven if the Greens scoop up some of the youth vote that would otherwise be 70% Labour, so I can see why the Tory BBC would help the Snots look good in a youth QT.
Just to play the devils advocate, why should the Tories be out there trying to sell themselves to the public when they have the BBC and the rest of the media doing it for them?
After Johnsons couldn’t care less attitude on the boy in hospital lying on a pile of coats, and the boy who waited 57 hours for a bed at A&E, and the fact that you should probably take a sleeping bag with you when you go to A&E in England, should be cause for concern that Johnson shoud care.
Alas he doesn’t.
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com
The more I see of Johnson it strikes me that he doesn’t have the ability – and probably the appropriate level of intellect – to think on his feet. Whenever he is called upon to do this he generally puts his foot in it. And even on occasions when he himself is responsible for deciding what to say with advance notice he fails dismally.
I watched last night’s interesting live coverage on RT of the Press Conference in Paris at which a panel comprising Macron, Merkel, Zelensky and Putin spoke about the summit they had just finished on the troubles in the Donbass region of Ukraine and then took questions from journalists. It didn’t take me long to come to the conclusion that, irrespective of whether or not you support any of their respective policies or personalities, there was no way that Johnson or predecessor May or any of their cohorts could have coped with such a situation requiring them to react spontaneously, professionally and diplomatically to comments made by their fellow panellists and questions from the floor. They would have been completely at sea and nothing but an embarrassment. We really must be the laughing stock of Europe.
I can only agree with that assessment. However, it is emotion that sells copy, not reason. A sensibly-conducted press conference (giving the politicians notice to decide their approach in advance) is not the stuff of headlines. ‘Sick child on pile of coats’ is. The echo chamber loves ‘sick child on pile of coats’. The echo chamber forgets that it was a Labour government which enlarged and supported the PFI process for rebuilding hospitals, kicking the costs down the road to now – their optimistic projections having been nullified by the longlasting effects of the crash, rapacious contractors and burgeoning parasitic management.
(Mr. Blair visited Angola and Mozambique last week. The Institute for Blair declined to say why, but the Mozambique press has an idea that he is interested in the country’s extractive industry.)
‘Just Another Angry Scotsman’
John Wight on what’s at stake in Thursday’s election
https://youtu.be/6GoV9JYvRYM