This election is seeing the largest vote swings in British political history. But that truth has been hidden by the largest media distortion in British political history.
Let me prove these claims. Certain constituencies have featured again and again in media coverage of the election, to reinforce the dominant media narrative, corresponding precisely to the government’s preferred election strategy, that working class Labour voters are deserting the party because of Brexit.
But if you look at the YouGov constituency model, conducted on a scale 100 times greater than most national opinion polls, and comparatively accurate in 2017, the bigger story is much more breathtaking.
Dudley is a case in point. As I posted a few days ago, Dudley North has been continually featured in vox pops as typical of a Labour seat being potentially lost because of Brexit. According to BBC vox pops, a large majority of the population of Dudley is deserting the Labour Party over either Brexit or allegations of anti-semitism by its ex-MP, Ian Austin.
Yet the YouGov constituency poll shows a swing from Labour to Tory in Dudley of 4.9%. Substantial, but not massive, in a seat where Labour only had a majority of 22 anyway. 41% of the population of Dudley still plans to vote Labour, which makes the balance of the BBC’s vox pops remarkably unrepresentative.
DUDLEY NORTH
Now compare that with this:
WOKINGHAM
Unlike Dudley, Wokingham has not featured in any of the BBC’s vox pops. In safe Tory Berkshire, close to Johnson’s own Uxbridge constituency, John Redwood the MP for a generation, surely there is nothing to draw the BBC to Wokingham?
Except YouGov shows a swing from Tory to LibDem in Wokingham of 20.35%. Let me say that again, 20.35% swing from Tory to Lib Dem. That is one of the biggest swings in general election history (excluding freak circumstances like brand new parties). To give a comparison, Blair’s 1997 landslide, the benchmark for modern seismic general election movement, was achieved on a Tory to Labour swing of 9.7%. What is happening today in Wokingham is on a scale with the massive swing to the SNP in Scotland in 2015 following the devolution referendum.
The Lib Dems need another 2.5% swing to take what is now a marginal seat. They may well achieve it by polling day.
Yet how many vox pops have you seen from Wokingham? What is happening there is perfectly plain. Brexit, the expulsion of moderate Conservative MPs and the hard right Tory stance on immigration and social services has caused a revulsion among liberal Tories from Johnson. In the UK as a whole, the swing against the Tories by liberal former Tory voters is every bit as large as the swing to the Tories in Brexit seats – hence the Tories are on almost exactly the same percentage overall as in 2017. For every racist dullard voting for Johnson’s dog whistle racism, there is an urbane Tory in Wokingham or similar towns refusing to vote for him for the same reason. Yet our televisions and radios have for a month been crammed with literally hundreds of selected representatives of the former group and virtually nil of the latter group.
This is not an accident nor is it unimportant. The media – and the BBC have been most guilty of all – know very well what they are doing. It is deliberate reinforcement of the government’s campaign message. Featuring stream upon stream of working class voters saying they will vote Tory normalises the idea and plays to the popular desire to join the winning team.
Just imagine for one moment that every time the broadcast media had shown a man in a high vis saying he was deserting Labour to “get Brexit done”, they had balanced it with a doctor’s wife from Cheam saying she was deserting the Tories over NHS funding. It would have challenged the entire government narrative. But the media have not done this. They have instead chosen to tell only the pro-government side of this story of electoral swings. This is probably the worst period of concerted state and billionaire controlled media propaganda in the modern history of the “democratic West”.
Ask yourself this simple question. The Tory vote has not increased since 2017. Have you heard that simple fact stated on the broadcast media and is it the impression the broadcast media have been giving?
Let us look at another pair of constituencies. Massively reported Grimsby. Here the swing measured by YouGov from Labour to Conservative is only 3.6%, yet I defy anyone to say they have not seen or heard media reports of how the Brexit supporting people of Grimsby are deserting Labour in droves, with people vox-popped to say precisely that.
GREATER GRIMSBY
PUTNEY
Putney has the same swing as Grimsby, with Labour expected by YouGov to take the seat from the Tories on a swing of 3.5%. Yet has Putney been swarming with TV cameras? Have you had enough of hearing Putney accents on the TV explaining why they are switching from Tory to Labour? Again, the counter-narrative is totally ignored.
The exception to the rule has been Esher and Walton, where there has been some brief media mention of the anti-Tory surge purely because it makes Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, a possible loser. But again I have not seen one single vox pop from there with voters explaining why they are deserting the Tories. And again the swing is absolutely massive, with YouGov measuring a 19.6% swing from Tory to Lib Dem in voting intention and only another 1% swing needed to get rid of Raab. This is much higher than any of the fabled swings against Labour in Northern England.
Compare that to Rother Valley, where the BBC had an extended vox pop feature showing only voters switching from Labour to Tory. While YouGov do predict a substantial swing from Labour to Tory in Rother Valley, of 6.3%, it is on nowhere near the scale of under-reported swings from the Tories elsewhere. And how much of that swing has been produced by the BBC reporting telling people there is a swing and vastly over-representing local anti-Labour voices? 36% of the Rother Valley voters still intend to vote Labour, but the BBC could not locate any.
Remember this. The Tory vote has not increased. It is the same level as 2017. But the media has vastly over-represented, in vox pops and in debate and panel audiences, those switching from Labour to Tory.
More importantly, the YouGov constituency poll of over 100,000 interviews was conducted from 3 to 10 December. The momentum was already against the Tories, and the large majority of its responses were from before the Boris Johnson phone snatching interview and NHS child on the floor scandal, which I suspect has put off more prospective Tory voters. So it was a snapshot of voting intent mostly several days ago, not today, let alone tomorrow when we vote. Remember also the evidence of 2017 is that after a time the highly controlled, slogan-led campaign wears on voters. People who were quite impressed the first time they saw Boris Johnson say “Get Brexit Done” are less impressed when they have seen him say that and nothing else for four weeks. They are inclined to conclude he is an empty slogan parrot, as they did with Theresa May and “strong and stable.”
The final reason to believe that the Tory lead will narrow from the YouGov constituency model poll is that they themselves reported this. Their poll was taken over seven days; at that start of that period it was showing an 11 point lead to the Tories, by the last day it was showing an eight point lead. I see every reason to expect that momentum to continue. Finally, remember that YouGove are an extremely Tory friendly pollster.
Most importantly it shows the number of ultra-marginal constituencies to be substantially more than the predicted Tory overall majority, and all of them susceptible to tactical voting. Scotland and Wales are particularly important. Ultra marginals in Scotland and Wales alone can wipe out the projected majority if the go the right way. There are no Tory/Labour marginals in Scotland, only Tory/SNP marginals and I strongly urge everybody in Scotland who wants to stop Johnson to vote SNP.
I will post some thoughts on key seats in England and Wales in which to vote tactically later. But I already feel confident Johnson will not get his majority.
——————————————
Unlike our adversaries including the Integrity Initiative, the 77th Brigade, Bellingcat, the Atlantic Council and hundreds of other warmongering propaganda operations, this blog has no source of state, corporate or institutional finance whatsoever. It runs entirely on voluntary subscriptions from its readers – many of whom do not necessarily agree with the every article, but welcome the alternative voice, insider information and debate.
Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.
Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:
Alternatively:
Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address Natwest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB
Subscriptions are still preferred to donations as I can’t run the blog without some certainty of future income, but I understand why some people prefer not to commit to that.
Corbyn PM and it’ll be war to the knife between UK Left and Jewish community…Mossad may be called in. He’s the “accelerationist” candidate.
You’ll find this interesting i think
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204872659793780736
Yip. I did.
To say nothing of the blanket invisibility of The Co-operative Party.
About thirty Labour MPs are officially Labour and Co-op.
And, apparently, Co-op Party members make up the third largest group of MPs in the last House of Commons.
Keep telling it!
Thank-you
I hope you’re right. I would like to see Boris get a thrashing in his own constituency. But I am not at all sure that Boris won’t get a working majority.
Unless, perhaps, today’s exhibition of being the Prime Minister of Cool – chickening out of an encounter with a reporter and ducking into a freezer, specifically – narrows the gap with Labour again and costs him his chance. Let’s see.
Humble pie tends to leave a bitter taste in the mouth.
Let’s see who’s the better man for admitting their gamble was wrong on Friday morning.
Been reading the Guardian. As is typical for this site, today’s ‘Final Push’ story features a big picture of Alexander de Pffiefel Boris Johnson, and his ‘Get Brexit Done’ slogan prominently. If Labour has a slogan this election, I’d bet most Guardian readers would have no idea what it is. After “For the Many, Not the Few” had its success, apparently Labour slogans are now banned from Guardian.
If I had to guess, I’d say that the Guardian still dreams of a Jo Swinson victory. Or at worst they want to see a Remain Coalition where Jo Swinson in leather has the Whip Hand with a large number of MPs as the Dominatrix of the coalition. Although the Guardian is supposed to be very Remain, they apparently fear a Corbyn victory a lot more than a De Pffiffel victory. They’ve constantly featured Boris on the politics page, and every utterance of Johnson or Farage is given equal weight with anything Swinson manages to say. If Corbyn’s been campaigning, its been kept very quiet, with only the big moments like manifesto launches and debates getting coverage.
And of course, Sturgeon is only mentioned when they can use it to scare English voters, as the SNP campaign as been non-existent in the Guard and covered about on a par with the Green Party.
Democracy can not exist without a free press and an educated and informed public. From what I can tell of this election, democracy does not exist in the UK. The Uk has Oligarchs who want a Tory Brexit, and they are working overtime to make sure that no one hears anything different.
Yes, democracy CAN exist without a free press. Or any kind of press.
And… perhaps ask yourself why a newspaper like the Guardian, resolutely left-wing for generations, cannot support Corbyn.
Is it because they are shills for a bunch of shady characters of your fevered imagination?
Or is it because he is viscerally anti-semitic, economically illiterate, irredeemably thick, and a big advocate of VENEZUELA’S model of government, of all possible models of government!? And as a result, a threat to the credibility and future of the Labour party?
it was resolutely left-wing until it got bought out by neo cons… you forgot that part…
regarding the constant anti-semite tag on corbyn – read this in the israel paper haaretz
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-the-contract-on-corbyn-1.8192769
Could it be that the Guardian is resolutely P.E.P. that is progressive except for Palestine.
I t(hink Simon´s point was that democracy cannot exist without (a free press AND an educated and informed public). A free press on its own is not enough, but if the public was educated and informed in large numbers, then maybe we could get there in spite of the biased press.
ChrisR…….
“if the public was educated and informed in large numbers, then maybe we could get there in spite of the biased press.”
Not going to happen under any circumstances. The “public” is fed shit on a never ending diet of trivia and lying propaganda with the likes of BBC being the main contributor. Depressing.
I think the polling results and their reporting are skewed in a way that hopes to discourage waverers or the undecided.
It is a form of voter suppression that might have affect the outcome in tight fights.
Of all organisations, the BBC ought to be above this and calling out all the skullduggery that goes on in the run up to an election.
“Vote early and vote often” was laughed at, now it raises a nervous chuckle.
The Electoral Commission has only one function and that is to close stable doors after the horse has bolted, unfortunately it takes about fifteen years for somebody on the commission to notice the open door and a few months after that before it acknowledges the fact that the door is actually open.
My view is that the swing to LibDem is occurring in seats with a large number of Remainers and a pro Brexit MP. That is the sole reason why my son a long time Tory Party member, is planning to vote LibDem. Something similar is happening in High Wycombe where a good friend long time Labour Party member, is also planning to vote Lib Dem. Neither has mentioned racism to me as a factor in their decision.
Although after reading about the massive corruption in farm subsidies particularly in Eastern Europe, my son’s commitment to Remain has wobbled a bit.. I am guessing we will end up with another hung parliament, maybe with a bigger Li Dem component. Then I shall enjoy telling my son and my friend that they voted for Jo Swinson…..
This story about corruption in the EU wasn’t one of Boris’ , by any chance? If so, no need to worry. 🙂
Vote for Peace in Europe. Tactically against this corrupt Tory government.
I guess I’m a “racist dullard” then for voting for Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park…
In this particular case yes.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/07/zac-goldsmith-racist-campaign-london
Dave54
How did you vote in your other postal addresses?
In the Tory Party internal election many party members were found to have more than one vote. Because they had different addresses and different jobs.
Imho the we have two sets of racist dullards as well as two party official policies.
1/ Labour MPs waiting for Corbyn to fail so that they can bomb muslims and get re-elected.
2/ Tory MPs like Dominic Grieve who are rabid and incurable Thatcherites who voted for Zionist wars but can’t understand why they failed.
Then there is Corbyn who yesterday was mocked for once objecting to Gollywogs on Radio 4’s PM programme.
And the ERG who are globalist gambler hedge funders whose sole motive in life is private gain.
We’re going to vote for Corbyn today because he’s the only candidate with any brains.
Laura Kuenssberg’s statement about postal voting is being redacted practically everywhere. In her words from the back of the car, she mentioned how postal votes are for people who vote “early and often“. This is now being left out of the clip and the transcript, for example here on the Guardian’s website:
“She said: ‘The forecast is that it’s going to be wet and cold tomorrow. The postal votes, of course, have already arrived. The parties – they’re not meant to look at it, but they do kind of get a hint – and on both sides people are telling me that the postal votes that are in are looking pretty grim for Labour in a lot of parts of the country.
‘Of course, postal voters tend to skew to elderly voters and people who vote early … but the kind of younger generation who we know skew much more to the Labour party, you might expect to turn out to the polls tomorrow. But in this winter election, turnout is just another one of these factors that we just can’t predict.’”
Where the ellipsis is between “vote early” and “but the kind of younger generation” she actually referred to voting “early and often”. Like everyone involved in British politics, she knows damned well that there is massive fraud where postal voting is concerned. The order to the media to shut up about her reference to this fact must surely have been handed down from the centre.
Just now I couldn’t find a clip that includes the omitted words, but I certainly saw it shortly after she said them.
This woman really has excelled herself this election campaign.
I’ve found the longer clip now: here. (Download it while you can!) She corrects herself immediately, and she also then tries to provide “balance” by saying voters at polling stations skew to the young.
“Of course, postal voters tend to skew to elderly voters and people who vote, you know, well I was going to say vote early and often – obviously not – but the kind of younger generation who we know skew much more to the Labour party, you might expect to turn out to the polls tomorrow.“
N_
Kuenssberg has a sense of humour. So?
I have three marriage vacancies. My first, ( second ) wife has a fantastic sense of humour. If I was in the market for a second one ( third ) thr first thing I’d check Is their funny bones, nothing else.
“The postal votes, of course, have already arrived.”. If Kuenssberg actually said that yesterday (11 Dec) it shows that she is either illiterate or ill-informed or both. She should know that postal votes don’t have to be posted until last post on Wednesday and can also be delivered by hand today, and so many of them would not be received, let alone opened until today. Or maybe she knew that and just uses a different kind of English from the rest of us. Perhaps she meant ‘some’ postal votes, but then why didn’t she say that?
Either way she is demonstrably incompetent at her present job and should be looking for employment that doesn’t require proficiency in use of the English language. But much more serious is that she seems to have broken electoral law by publishing inside information on how other people have voted before the polls close at 10pm today. .If the BBC is defending her action then both she and her superiors should be subject to police investigation and possible criminal charges.
I am reminded of that cult movie ‘The Producers’ where the backers of the show sought to make money from its failure.
While I am sure the disaster capitalists, real villains behind the scenes are rubbing their hands in anticipation, having ensured that the broadcasting media and the press are all singing from the same song sheet, I would warn them, however, that perhaps, as in the movie, ‘Springtime for Boris and Londonia’ might not turn out quite as they expect.
Thanks Craig for this analysis. It confirms my own gut feeling that we are hearing a manufactured Tory (MSM) media myth.
Is this level of lieing and manipulation by the Tories and all the MSM media – legal activity in the EU ? Do you know if there are election observers from the EU acting as witnesses and fact checkers ?
This is the BBC creep to whom thanks should be given by the Tories for providing such excellent propaganda by Kuenssberg and co (Chris Mason, Adam Fleming) throughout the campaign.
@dinosofos
Editor,
@BBC
’s #Brexitcast, #Electioncast & #TheNextEpisode podcasts.
@britpodawards
Gold winner. [email protected]
London, Englandbbc.co.uk/blogs/aboutthe…Joined January 2009
2,432 Following
14.6K Followers
https://mobile.twitter.com/dinosofos
Pap and trivia from a lightweight in the Kuenssberg trio.
https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming
The other is Chris Mason.
The whole of the BBC ‘political’ output throughout the last few weeks has been surreal and very dangerous for our so called democracy.
They love giving the minutiae of their BBC career path to date –
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/dino-sofos-b5961819
Do they have ‘BBC’ tattooed on the inside of their wrists?
I have ALWAYS thought that opinion polls and vox pops ought to be banned under Purdah rules.
I’ve been out canvassing for Labour and I simply don’t believe the narrative being spewed out dutifully by the RW press.
We’ll know soon I guess! But seeing queues of young voters is heartening. I think the polls have just fired them up to vote!
Yes I agree , polls seem to muddy the waters and what is the point of them anyway if not to influence people’s vote? They are unnecessary at least if not actually corrupting.
Gill Ashton (10.34, 12 Dec): it could be made illegal to publish the results of voting intention polls, either totally or during a specified period. However it would be more difficult, if not impossible, to prevent such polling taking place, as long as the results were kept private. A ban would inform and benefit those rich and powerful enough to commission and pay for polling, while keeping the rest of us in the dark. Opinion polls have their downsides, but on the whole we are better off having them published rather than kept secret.
Very seldom over the decades has Scottish votes helped to determine the outcome of a GE, today will probably be no different.
I hope the SNP do very well today, however as Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald said, Westminster is not the forum in which Irish interests have been served.
That applies to Scots as well, hopefully a good showing for the SNP will be a springboard to independence, sooner than later.
I think you are over optimistic but I hope you may be proven right.
Please report this to the regulator, especially re the BBC. They are breaking all their rules on impartiality.
What this suggests to me is that the Jeremy Corbyn factor was a major problem for the party; a more favoured leader in the country at large would have helped prevent some of the albeit modest movement from Labour to Tory & would have stopped the meltdown in numbers of seats, while denying Johnson the majority he craved. Second, the media’s unchallenged ‘right’ to print barefaced lies does need to be challenged. Such lies were not in the public interest they were in the Establishment’s interest. That point, that lesson should be hammered home especially to the upcoming generation.
I thought exactly the same, but I would not have been able to put it in a specific way as yourself. The vast amount on the papers side, with only approx 2 or 3 for Labour. Then we had the BBC and any questions programs on their shows among the politicians, I found were always Brexit voters being the vast majority of the general public. All you heard was Brexit, Brexit, Brexit every-time that you switched the television on. I cannot believe that the public could be so gullible to believe, and be so ignorant as what was actually going on. I feel that the UK has off the cliff like lemmings, for many years to come, as for myself, I do not know what will happen to me, as I live in France, and have done so for 25 years, God help me.One more thing I want to say is that, there was over a million expats abroad who did not get a chance to vote, and were restricted so because of the difference I believe it would have made, and was never discussed to my knowledge.
I’m a lorry driver from the North who has voted tory since Maggie in 1979. You talk a load of crap!