This election is seeing the largest vote swings in British political history. But that truth has been hidden by the largest media distortion in British political history.
Let me prove these claims. Certain constituencies have featured again and again in media coverage of the election, to reinforce the dominant media narrative, corresponding precisely to the government’s preferred election strategy, that working class Labour voters are deserting the party because of Brexit.
But if you look at the YouGov constituency model, conducted on a scale 100 times greater than most national opinion polls, and comparatively accurate in 2017, the bigger story is much more breathtaking.
Dudley is a case in point. As I posted a few days ago, Dudley North has been continually featured in vox pops as typical of a Labour seat being potentially lost because of Brexit. According to BBC vox pops, a large majority of the population of Dudley is deserting the Labour Party over either Brexit or allegations of anti-semitism by its ex-MP, Ian Austin.
Yet the YouGov constituency poll shows a swing from Labour to Tory in Dudley of 4.9%. Substantial, but not massive, in a seat where Labour only had a majority of 22 anyway. 41% of the population of Dudley still plans to vote Labour, which makes the balance of the BBC’s vox pops remarkably unrepresentative.
DUDLEY NORTH
Now compare that with this:
WOKINGHAM
Unlike Dudley, Wokingham has not featured in any of the BBC’s vox pops. In safe Tory Berkshire, close to Johnson’s own Uxbridge constituency, John Redwood the MP for a generation, surely there is nothing to draw the BBC to Wokingham?
Except YouGov shows a swing from Tory to LibDem in Wokingham of 20.35%. Let me say that again, 20.35% swing from Tory to Lib Dem. That is one of the biggest swings in general election history (excluding freak circumstances like brand new parties). To give a comparison, Blair’s 1997 landslide, the benchmark for modern seismic general election movement, was achieved on a Tory to Labour swing of 9.7%. What is happening today in Wokingham is on a scale with the massive swing to the SNP in Scotland in 2015 following the devolution referendum.
The Lib Dems need another 2.5% swing to take what is now a marginal seat. They may well achieve it by polling day.
Yet how many vox pops have you seen from Wokingham? What is happening there is perfectly plain. Brexit, the expulsion of moderate Conservative MPs and the hard right Tory stance on immigration and social services has caused a revulsion among liberal Tories from Johnson. In the UK as a whole, the swing against the Tories by liberal former Tory voters is every bit as large as the swing to the Tories in Brexit seats – hence the Tories are on almost exactly the same percentage overall as in 2017. For every racist dullard voting for Johnson’s dog whistle racism, there is an urbane Tory in Wokingham or similar towns refusing to vote for him for the same reason. Yet our televisions and radios have for a month been crammed with literally hundreds of selected representatives of the former group and virtually nil of the latter group.
This is not an accident nor is it unimportant. The media – and the BBC have been most guilty of all – know very well what they are doing. It is deliberate reinforcement of the government’s campaign message. Featuring stream upon stream of working class voters saying they will vote Tory normalises the idea and plays to the popular desire to join the winning team.
Just imagine for one moment that every time the broadcast media had shown a man in a high vis saying he was deserting Labour to “get Brexit done”, they had balanced it with a doctor’s wife from Cheam saying she was deserting the Tories over NHS funding. It would have challenged the entire government narrative. But the media have not done this. They have instead chosen to tell only the pro-government side of this story of electoral swings. This is probably the worst period of concerted state and billionaire controlled media propaganda in the modern history of the “democratic West”.
Ask yourself this simple question. The Tory vote has not increased since 2017. Have you heard that simple fact stated on the broadcast media and is it the impression the broadcast media have been giving?
Let us look at another pair of constituencies. Massively reported Grimsby. Here the swing measured by YouGov from Labour to Conservative is only 3.6%, yet I defy anyone to say they have not seen or heard media reports of how the Brexit supporting people of Grimsby are deserting Labour in droves, with people vox-popped to say precisely that.
GREATER GRIMSBY
PUTNEY
Putney has the same swing as Grimsby, with Labour expected by YouGov to take the seat from the Tories on a swing of 3.5%. Yet has Putney been swarming with TV cameras? Have you had enough of hearing Putney accents on the TV explaining why they are switching from Tory to Labour? Again, the counter-narrative is totally ignored.
The exception to the rule has been Esher and Walton, where there has been some brief media mention of the anti-Tory surge purely because it makes Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, a possible loser. But again I have not seen one single vox pop from there with voters explaining why they are deserting the Tories. And again the swing is absolutely massive, with YouGov measuring a 19.6% swing from Tory to Lib Dem in voting intention and only another 1% swing needed to get rid of Raab. This is much higher than any of the fabled swings against Labour in Northern England.
Compare that to Rother Valley, where the BBC had an extended vox pop feature showing only voters switching from Labour to Tory. While YouGov do predict a substantial swing from Labour to Tory in Rother Valley, of 6.3%, it is on nowhere near the scale of under-reported swings from the Tories elsewhere. And how much of that swing has been produced by the BBC reporting telling people there is a swing and vastly over-representing local anti-Labour voices? 36% of the Rother Valley voters still intend to vote Labour, but the BBC could not locate any.
Remember this. The Tory vote has not increased. It is the same level as 2017. But the media has vastly over-represented, in vox pops and in debate and panel audiences, those switching from Labour to Tory.
More importantly, the YouGov constituency poll of over 100,000 interviews was conducted from 3 to 10 December. The momentum was already against the Tories, and the large majority of its responses were from before the Boris Johnson phone snatching interview and NHS child on the floor scandal, which I suspect has put off more prospective Tory voters. So it was a snapshot of voting intent mostly several days ago, not today, let alone tomorrow when we vote. Remember also the evidence of 2017 is that after a time the highly controlled, slogan-led campaign wears on voters. People who were quite impressed the first time they saw Boris Johnson say “Get Brexit Done” are less impressed when they have seen him say that and nothing else for four weeks. They are inclined to conclude he is an empty slogan parrot, as they did with Theresa May and “strong and stable.”
The final reason to believe that the Tory lead will narrow from the YouGov constituency model poll is that they themselves reported this. Their poll was taken over seven days; at that start of that period it was showing an 11 point lead to the Tories, by the last day it was showing an eight point lead. I see every reason to expect that momentum to continue. Finally, remember that YouGove are an extremely Tory friendly pollster.
Most importantly it shows the number of ultra-marginal constituencies to be substantially more than the predicted Tory overall majority, and all of them susceptible to tactical voting. Scotland and Wales are particularly important. Ultra marginals in Scotland and Wales alone can wipe out the projected majority if the go the right way. There are no Tory/Labour marginals in Scotland, only Tory/SNP marginals and I strongly urge everybody in Scotland who wants to stop Johnson to vote SNP.
I will post some thoughts on key seats in England and Wales in which to vote tactically later. But I already feel confident Johnson will not get his majority.
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If the Tories don’t get a majority, will there be a Tory- Lib Dem coalition?
Yes. Ed Davey openly admits he wants to rekindle that old magic that brought us Libya, austerity and the leave vote. It is also considered the best possible outcome by the amnesiac centrist commentariat.
Surely even the ‘Dems wouldn’t get into bed with the Get Brexit Done party. Their base voted to revoke article 50! It would be tuition fees times a thousand.
Davey says they will prop up the Tories in return for a People’s Vote.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/liberal-democrat-deputy-leader-doesn-t-rule-out-tory-coalition-1-6386523
Their base would probably insist on getting that but I doubt Davey or Swinson would. They know the end of the NHS is almost within touching distance if they can just keep Corbyn out.
There won’t be any real LibDems left who would want to get into bed with Tories again.
There shouldn’t be now. But one thing you can count on is people not learning from experience.
The Lib Dems are political hyena’s totally devoid of honesty and morals. They are quite willing to perform a few tricks for a few extra votes, cash or political power. If Johnson offers it and the price is right Swinson will get her kit off and be in bed in a flash. Any requested depravity will be fully delivered. More austerity, no problem just give us the ministerial cars and the promise of a seat in the House of Lords when it all blows up.
“If the Tories don’t get a majority, will there be a Tory- Lib Dem coalition?”
Surely you mean a Tory-Tory coalition.
Thanks Craig.
The UK under Tory rule is a fascist state.
We have been steadily pushed into a fascist system of governance, and witnessed the shifting paradigms of citizen’s rights given to finance and corporate imperatives, that have eased the abrogation of the government’s duty of care to its citizens; running the country for the benefit of a few and not all.
“A fascist government actively suppresses any objection to its ideology and typically will crush any movement which opposes it.”
UK political class have lost whatever legitimacy they claimed to have in this patently fraudulent elections. The oleaginous Tory talking heads on the telly have been left to deliver their soliloquy without any challenges from the supine fat cat podcasters posing as “journalists”, with their usual “supportive voxpop. In a shameful display of total disconnect from the realities facing the ordinary people by the so called establishment.
Yes, I quite agree. Thank you for working on the subject.
There is a story on this theme in the Guardian today, but it must be about the first.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/11/tories-face-loss-of-st-albans-as-candidate-fails-to-impress-voters
This is what the BBC has decided to put at the top of their main page. Pure trivia.
Google: The most searched for questions and phrases of 2019 revealed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-50728830
James Purnell, a Blairite and ex minister and one of the triumvirate referred to within the EI piece below, is the Director of Strategy and Digital at Portland Place.
‘James Mark Dakin Purnell is a British broadcasting executive and a former politician. In late September 2016, he was appointed as the BBC’s Director of Radio, and took up his position in October that year, in addition to his other role as the BBC’s Director of Strategy and Digital, a job he has held since March 2013.’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Purnell
Apologists for Israel take top posts at BBC
https://electronicintifada.net/content/apologists-israel-take-top-posts-bbc/12395
Harding, ex Head of BBC News and ex Times Editor, now runs a media and PR operation called Turquoise. https://www.tortoisemedia.com/people/
Any donors on here to his crowd funding in the very long list of names?!
Craig: “The media – and the BBC have been most guilty of all – know very well what they are doing. It is deliberate reinforcement of the government’s campaign message.”
Yes, they do know very well what they are doing. A corrupted BBC is violating our democracy.
What’s to be done?
I have to say, you are being very selective about Wokingham, Mr Murray. If this were a real phenomenon, not some local aberration (is there something Redwood has said/done/not said/not done to get voters’ ire up?), then similar swings would register in 15-30 constituencies, not just one.
This cannot be Johnsons message, it has to be something else. There are dozens of Tory seats like Wokingham across Southern England. Why are they not all flocking to the Libdems? You would be trumpeting the YouGov data if they were….
Is there some major employer in Wokingham that will up sticks if Brexit is not reversed? Has Johnson&Johnson said anything?
I am surprised you have not asked yourself this question first…..
The case I cited at 11.29 is another one. And there’ll be more; Craig wasn’t claiming to be comprehensive.
I come from a traditional Sussex Tory constituency and I can tell you that many traditional Tory voters will be backing LibDem – they have no option because of the moral bankruptcy of the Tory party and their Brexit policy
Their other, not ineffective, option is simply to abstain.
i really want Jeremy Corbyn to win the thought of the Tories remaining in power for another five years is really depressing, however no way can i vote for the Labour candidate where i live in West Bromwich, Ibrahim Dogus, a millionaire who pays his employees less than the minimum wage and was embroiled in tax evasion after being caught with £11,500 stuffed in his socks, i struggle to understand the bright spark that thought he would be a suitable Labour candidate here in West Bromwich, a seat which has always been Labour and now for the first time ever there is the prospect of a Tory mp in West Brom, i would sooner suffer the torture of breaking on the wheel than vote for a Tory, that leaves George Galloway who is also a candidate in West Brom, though i am a little uneasy at his association with some some local Brexit party members who seem to have swapped their sharp suits for cloth caps.
Vote Labour.
Let the New local Labour members deal with him – he will not last much longer as the truth closes in and a by-election will give you a more worthy candidate.
yes i would really love Labour to win the election, i can’t understand why Dogus was put up for candidate it’s like Labour wanted to give West Brom to the Tories as a xmas present. Perhaps they were complacent it being such a safe seat, every seat counts if the result is very close.
Please vote labour. It is a national issue. I am sure such local candidates who do not fit socialism will be dealt with when we have a labour government that is the vision to aim for.
yes SA the big picture is the way forward, thankyou, the main thing is to rid the country of the Tory wrecking machine, i despise everything they stand for, the greedy the elite and the selfish, the only thing they have done for me is to make life very difficult indeed. I dearly hope Jeremy Corbyn wins.
Galloway is a left winger like Corbyn and therefore pro-Brexit. Unfortunately Corbyn’s party is still stuffed with Blairite remainer neocons who will take back control of the party after the election, whatever the outcome. It will soon have a new leader, possibly Hilary Benn or Kier Starmer. Yuck.
Why would that happen – genuine question? The national membership which I assume are mainly left of centre were responsible for electing Corbyn. Why would they vote for Benn, Starmer, or another centrist? Wouldn’t McDonnell be their obvious choice?
The membership can only choose from a short-list drawn up by the PLP.
I think that anyone getting 15% of PLP nominations can stand. I would guess that McDonnell could get 35 MPs to support him.
MJ, it is clear to us in the Labour Party that we are on track to win this election. It’s by no means in the bag, but it is going extremely well. The common response on doorsteps is of not wanting the tories.
What I am experiencing is backed up by Craigs forensics on the polls.
The Blairite rump in the Party is mpcentric not party specific. So long as the party does not collapse at the polls Corbyn will continue…_
I wonder how significant the supposed crowd effect is on people’s voting intention. Are they really such sheeple, thinking it’s ok to vote Tory because everyone else is apparently doing it? There must be some solid evidence for this, given it looks like the strategy being employed here
Yes it has been studied and proved.
Why? – it seems close polls INCREASE turnout.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w23490
So the purpose of the grossly distorted polls is to LOWER the turnout.
You’ve answered a slightly different point, with respect. How about the increased propensity of voters to vote Tory, because they think others are doing so?
Are you trying to say that because somebody votes for a fridge they’re mates will also vote for a fridge.
I’ve seen news reports of The Oaf delivering milk on the BBC, but no reporting of a prime minister hiding in a fridge.
Don’t believe me…….just put #fridgegate in your search engine and piss yourself laughing…_
Yes that is a corollary.
First that these who think their vote is not going to make a difference won’t bother;
Second these who would have voted against the ‘winner’ will instead vote for that pre-ordained ‘winner’ – No one likes to be on the ‘losing’ side.
However, all that was true two years ago, when the polls were still predicting a Tory landslide on the morning of polling day, and all those “vote for the winning party” voters still only resulted in a hung parliament.
Yes. De ja vu!
Yes. The first thing a child learns at school is that not joining the herd makes you stand out, and standing out makes you a target for bullies. That’s the main lesson kids take away from education, sadly (but not unintentionally). Witness the rise of Johnson and the Bullyboys.
Hahaha! #fridgegate is top of worldwide trends on twitter. With some very amusing tweets.
that’s one massive Smeg. Dunno what brand the fridge is.
Mate i wouldn’t drink the milk delivered by spaffer bozo after he disappeared into the milk fridge for 5 minutes…
Europe is only one country away, Turkey, from the desolation of Syria. This is much too close for comfort for ordinary British voters who are already aware of strong support for the Jihadism which trashed Syria in the UK Muslim population. Racism is not politically correct in liberal democracies and ordinary people on building sites really don’t like being gagged by high-minded plc policies. Imho people mostly want to Leave the EU because they want to end Free Movement at any price, the collapse of the motor industry, the collapse of the pound, the collapse of the NHS.
What seems to have escaped them is that Jeremy Corbyn will end these continual Zionist wars against Muslim countries by the Tories who have been in power for ten years. This will mean that instead of jihadist sympathisers being able to hide and thrive in the UK, they will have be under pressure to be silent about their predilections for power , destruction and violence.
Most people actually believe the Tory , especially Johnson, pack of lies about Russia causing the chaos on Europe’s borders. The Tories can capitalise on 30 years of newspaper blackening the name of Islam by the behaviour of Islamists without mentioning the Zionist affinities of their own Tory, Labour and LibDem politicians. In this election, under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, that capital of abusive rant by the MSM is being quietly challenged. All parties are recognising the contribution of immigrants from all countries East and West.. Trump has put his puppet Erdogan under control with regard to Europe, even if not to the Kurds.
Nobody cares about the Saudis arming and training jihadists in Myanmar and the inevitable crackdown on the Rohingas. Nobody cares about China encarcerating the Uighurs. These events are too far away for the British people to care about. What has changed in this election is that people are starting to realise that the horrific events on Europe’s borders which are driving Brexit have actually been created by the soft, cuddly Tories and their allies in other parties who keep voting for war.
The crime the BBC and MSM have to answer for is not manipulating the truth for the last few weeks in panic about Corbyn winning, but for blatantly misrepresenting the truth to us for the last 30 years.
I’ve noticed the change from traditional Tory voters to LibDem party, who feel that morally they can’t back the Tories anymore.
I thought YouGov was run by Tories for Tories and therefore not to be believed under any circumstances?
That makes Craig’s argument stronger, doesn’t it? If even a Tory-owned pollster is saying it, then ….
Unless it’s a last minute scare tactic to get wavering Tories to go and vote.
Any organisation has to have some form of credibility even if it is a propaganda outfit. It will therefore have some credibility but try to skew the results. It is not necessarily the data that is wrong but the interpretation of the data and the suppression of conclusions. I thought you would know that.
It should be renamed YouGuess.
They are all guessing but the idea is to say:
You Labour voters have no chance of winning..
Stay in.
It won’t work as people are not stupid.
Johnson yes- voters no.
The weighting applied to the raw poll data is effectively an amalgam of individual fixes to individual demographics. An individual fix is theorised and proved valid or invalid against comparison of previous election results against their respective polls. In practice this should work well, but the 2019 election is to some extent a proxy Brexit referendum. There will be substantial tactical voting. The weighting factors being applied are not necessarily valid.
The Returning Officer for Glasgow reports postal votes down on this time out from the 2017 count. The auld yins aren’t voting as expected. Voting registration is substantially up on 2017. Younger voters are turning out in excess of expectations.
In short, the polls are not accurate because this election has no precedent.
Perhaps one reason for postal votes being down is because people are beginning to see how their postal vote can be rigged? It may mean not registering for postal votes at all because an unused postal vote can be stolen (therefore an intention not to vote), or an intention that by hook or by crook they will vote in person? If people are wary of postal voting I sense they’re wary of Tory foul play, which would be another indicator of decline in the Tory vote.
A postal vote does not stop you voting in person on the day. You just take the envelope to the polling station…_
Thanks Craig for that analysis.
The modern interpretation of the BBC Charter means that they will support the Government of the day. I think there is enough evidence of that in the mainstream. The line has been crossed with the recent inane parrotting of Tory propaganda by someone who should now be considering their position and Chief Political Correspondent (or whatever the job title is this week). Even the 7.00am News on Radio 3 cross the line of partisanship.
At the last election in 2017, Canterbury saw 185 years of Conservative misrule turned over in favour of a likeable and highly visible Labour candidate.It is notable that there are far fewer “Vote Blue/Red/Orange/Green/Purple” signs planted in gardens alongside the house for sale signs. Pollsters last time pointed to the student vote causing the huge swing, but I have a feeling Rosie Duffield will increase her majority to consolidate the seat. I have been able to infer that as there has been an absence of the local Spitfire aircraft being flown low overhead on a daily basis (as happened at the last election).
Plenty of time for the BBC’s Ms Kissmyarse and ITV’s Mr PissedOn to circulate more false narratives but given they have been found out to be mere foghorns I suspect social media emphasis will change.
Maybe it is time for Governor Johnson to be wheeled out of his fridge for one last interview with himself.
I’m fully expecting Governor Johnson to receive over 98% of the votes cast….
There are a few blue posters dotted around but central Canterbury, Blean, predominantly Labour posters on display, very occasional libDem board, and about one-third of each in Rough Common. I agree Rosie D will win fairly easily.
I take Craig’s point to heart, but this is a Leftist version of Ed West’s equally good Right-of-Centre essay at Unherd on the swing to ‘liberal’ values.
My sole objections (and they are major) are that overall, two years on from 2017 there has been a national swing against Labour of around 8%; and too many pollsters are taking ‘Don’t Know/Unsure’ responses at face value. Qualitative research undertaken by a major Party I won’t name suggests that at least 30% of these are disgusted abstainers….and the majority are Labour supporters.
The Labour voting intention share is soft, but the Tory figure is rock-solid. I don’t say this to crow, because I loathe the idea of a neoliberal ideologue government as much as I regret that the only alternative is a collectivist ideologue government.
We have a political class looking backwards above an electorate confused about the best way forward.
But above all, there is no trust any more in either the stats we’re given, or how agendered media colossi will twist them. This is Craig’s central point, and I concur with it.
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/explosive-desperate-games-aimed-at-opinion-manipulation-in-play/
“collectivist ideologue government”
Surely you exaggerate.
At the weekend I drove into Wokingham along the very posh Finchampstead Road where every house has got to be million pound ish at least. I was very surprised at the number of prominent Lib-Dem posters on walls and gateposts. Saw nothing from any other political party. In my opinion Craig has drawn the right conclusion.
Brave Sir Boris ran away
(No!)
Bravely ran away away
(I didn’t!)
When scrutiny reared its ugly head
He bravely turned his tail and fled
(No!)
Yes, brave Sir Boris turned about
(I didn’t!)
And gallantly he chickened out
Bravely taking to his feet
(I never did!)
He beat a very brave retreat
(All lies!)
Bravest of the brave, Sir Boris!
(I never!)
Running away and buggering off,
He is throwing in the sponge………
From Monty Python and the Tory Fail. 😉
Not forgetting the man in Fridge from their “Universe Song”
Given that social media blog entries are usually there for all to see for all time, I’m very impressed by your willingness to stick your neck out and say you think the predominant pollster narrative is wrong. Let’s hope you are correct. If you are, I may have to collar my bookmaker before he leaves town!
Given the way the State Broadcaster has been proved to be reporting can we launch a bid to have the Election rerun before Johnson detesticulates the Supreme Court?
Why post this speculation on most dubious grounds, like feelings, lack of evidence, and only a handful of seats when there are over 650 when we will know during these most confused times within 48 hours what the results are?
Why post all the speculative and probably fixed polls in the first place?
Lol.
Does anyone else think that the media has been extra compliant with the anti Corbyn bollocks because they are all high earners who will have to pay more tax if Labour get in? The wilful ignoring of the Labour supporting Jewish community has been shameful. The shitbags must be aware of this and are now absolutely terrified of the reckoning they may face if the truth gets out to the masses they’ve been lying to. But I fear that even if Labour do win the election it will be taken as an opportunity for the establishment and the many billionaires we now have, to destroy the economy and blame it all on Corbyn and socialism as they appear to be doing successfully around the world at the moment.
The salaries of Kuenssberg, Peston et al are very much a secondary issue. These people are carefully vetted before they get their jobs. 40% of presenters / reporters are privately educated, 25% graduated from Oxbridge. Hardly representative of the British public. Pure, English caste system.
It would be fascinating to know if the BBC’s, Potemkin, “house niger”, Steph McGovern had any motivation beyond salary to decamp to C4.
Some even go to private US universities linked to the CIA and State department (cfr) to learn their ‘tradecraft’ before deployment on their careers to the top of their chosen industries or governments.
#mockingbird #pathocracy
“Destroy the economy”
Have you seen most high streets in the country?
The only way they could do that is to do what the anti-govt Venezuelan business owners did there. Increase prices and reduce supply.
I doubt if they could get away with that level of cartelism here. I’d like to see them try.
I know the larger economy is pretty much already in tatters but I mean massive capital flight, forex manipulation, global corporations and banks fucking off (good riddance) etc. If Soros (I always just thought he was Hungarian, no idea of his religion until all the recent anticorbynism scandal) could almost single handedly keep the UK out of the ERM then surely it wouldn’t take a huge effort on the part of several billionaires to completely destabilise the financial sector and scupper Labours plans. I’m pretty sure the far right USA mob would likely do all they could too, with sanctions etc. Then there’s the very real possibility of the military, the civil service and the alphabets doing their utmost to interfere with demockery too. Personally I think they’ll try to rig it beforehand because there’s no way they can let Corbyn have sight of all the shit they’ve been up to from Iraq to the Skripals to the whole concocted and connived AS stuff.
Ah so much to unpack there.
I’ll try a little.
We were in the ERM.
Soros made billions with the help of the bought politicians.
Lamont sang in the bath!
Bankers got filthy rich and tories got substituted by the Blairites who were comfortable with them.
They carried on privatising even more with a couple of fig leafs.
Bankers got even richer
So on . And on.
Maybe one should ask the question: Why do we need opinion polls? Surely it is only the actual election results that matter – we will have those very soon.
I have long come to the conclusion that the only use of so-called opinion polls is to INFLUENCE voters, rather than to REPORT on them. They should be banned.
Well, dodgy Opinion Polls would allow them to justify the final numbers should any rigging of the Postal Votes take place.
“Maybe one should ask the question: Why do we need opinion polls?”
1. To give an accurate idea of current voting intentions
2. To boost one party’s standing at the expense of others
3. To provide employment at call-centres
4. Other
Polls are important for people who try to vote responsibly under First-Past-The-Post / Plurality-Wins voting rules. (Here in USA, we’re mostly stuck with the same stupid system). With more than two candidates, it’s often worth voting for someone other than your favorite candidate, to prevent a win by someone you really don’t want. A secondary point of CM’s OP is to encourage Tactical Voting, which requires good info on which Party has the best chance of defeating the Tory in each local race.
With more reasonable voting rules – “Ranked Choice Voting” is the obvious choice – we wouldn’t have to adjust our voting based on guessing what other voters are going to do.
I think you are being overhopeful on this one.
The people spoke, they were largely ignored by Parliament. Boris has shamelessly used the refusal of the Labour party to back what the People wanted to gain power within his party and now win a further 5 years with a stronger majority.
Sadly this is largely because the Labour party dithered with “the people’s vote” instead of just getting the May deal done when it could be.
I think Corbyn – who was always very coy about the peoples vote – has always recognised the error. But he failed to provide the leadership and now many natural Labour voters see Labour as betrayers of their Democratic referendum.
Once Boris does Brexit, he has nothing left to offer and could well become the most unpopular PM ever. All Labour needs is a bit of leadership, the balls to stick with their tax & spend policies (which will look even better after a couple of years of Johnson) and the willingness to drop some of the sillier liberal values which put off most voters who do not work in the media or live in Islington.
(and just as being accused of racism angered many and boosted Brexit, the absurd anti-semitism charges will only help Labour long term).
“But he failed to provide the leadership and now many natural Labour voters see Labour as betrayers of their Democratic referendum”
Spot on.
I disagree. As a Labour remainer who nevertheless is revolted by the Bliarites and as socialist as Mr Corbyn, I welcomed a leader who stood back and acknowledged that a majority of Labour members were in fact against Brexit (and still are). I also welcomed a leader who didn’t fall into alpha male poses but instead led by example, projecting a rational, principled and compassionate approach to the world. We should be welcoming this approach to leadership, not pining for aggressive, macho little Caesars who promote prejudice, hostility and selfishness.
Labour members may be mostly remain. They are sophisticated in politics and know what to be angry about. But Brexit is simply a great shout out against the Establishment. Brussels and Westminster alike. What really drives it is stagnant wages over past 30 odd years while GDP has doubled and the wages of the rich have quadrupled or more.
The unsophisticated angry working class men know very little other than that their newspapers lie to them. They do know that Blairite governments both lied and supported the rich. There is a great anger to be directed. Brexit was a way of using that anger for some apparent purpose even if it went in an entirely irrelevant direction and ended up boosting old Etonian Johnson. (Billionaire Trump has benefitted in entirely the same bizarre way).
But members don’t win elections – voters do. Corbyn may have been a nice guy, but sooner or later the Labour Party need a leader of the Brexit voters. Making them realise that Taxing the rich (punishing the guys they are jealous of), spending on infrastructure and service like NHS, and staying out of US engineered wars are precisely the policies they actually want and not actually the scare tactics of the newspapers they read.
If the labour party doesn’t do it, some Trump will come along, make all the right promises then fail to deliver.
“But Brexit is simply a great shout out against the Establishment. Brussels and Westminster alike.”
True, but no-one wants to believe it. Remainers want to think that the referendum was won by Leave through lies and other dodgy tactics, so is invalid, and Leavers want to think that they won because the majority of Britons really want to leave the EU.
The people did not speak and there was nothing democratic about that advisory referendum.
Au contraire, the referendum was a tiny ray of democracy in what is otherwise a solid fog of elective dictatorship.
Wokingham is very untypical. There is a lot of tactical voting as people switch between Labour and Libdems to find the best non-conservative candidate. Most of the Libdem gain has been from Labour this year, not from the conservatives. Indeed 2017 was exceptional in Labour being the main anti-conservative candidate, previous elections have all had LibDems as 2nd or more or less 2= candidates.
From a national perspective all you can draw is that there is a moderate swing Conservative to non-conservative in strong Remain areas. Which in turn is almost certainly matched by the reverse in strong Brexit areas.
Kuenssberg and the Tories have seen the postal votes!
https://twitter.com/Carolin31152898/status/1204748359963234304
Labour needs to Tweet the hell out of this!
Another post, Craig?
Here’s another instance: https://twitter.com/indyscotnews/status/1204772591359217664
Is this a Criminal Offence?. Everyone retweet the shit out of it.
I have just reported this to Electoral Commission. Apparently they have received many calls. You can add your concerns to their list by calling 0333 103 1928
Everyone needs to retweet this.
I recall Ruth Davidson, ex-Tory leader in Scotland doing the same thing a couple years back. I’m sure it is passed off as sampling, she was spoken to by the police, and no impropriety was found.
That was after the polls closed.
Yes but before the count took place, in the case of Kuenssberg and the Tories as you put it, it does sound a bit suspicious, and I’d imagine any member of the public can report it to the police if they have concerns.
No, it was about a week before the referendum date. There is an article from Argyll in 2014 explaining how the returns of 96% could be achieved. I’m sure it was on here already. The spooks need access to the electronic postal voting register. When the outer envelopes are opened they know who has voted, then they make new papers for any that have not voted.
I’ll try and find it.
The ‘election’ has been rigged by the ‘shy tory’. ‘Shy tory’ being the security services. The state will not have descent in its ranks.
The last few weeks of polls, vox-pops, opinion pieces and recycled newscasts have been to psychologically prepare you for their chosen result. You will be ridiculed when you speak out.
Scotland will not have independence this century.
We’ve had Laura K and Dominic Rabb both state that Tories have accessed the postal vote and ‘it looks bad for Labour’ despite being illegal to do so before election day.
What would be the purpose of openly stating their illegality?
Is there any way, theoretically, that the Tories could rig the postal vote through gaining access to it? Could announcing this be to set expectation, so that a rigged vote can be more easily accepted?
Perhaps to void the postal vote, or even the entire election?
I watched the video of Kuennsberg say the postal vote for Labour is looking bad but right at the moment she said it she looked away from the camera, which from what little I know of body language suggests she’s lying. It just depends whether the lie is she’s seen the results or the lie is they’re bad for Labour, but this shameless electioneering for the crooked Tories just has to be investigated. I think it’s bad for the Tories, they know it, and they’re pulling out every last trick in a desperate attempt to prevent them losing.
I think that’s the most likely explanation.
I don’t. She’s looking right and left throughout. is she driving on the phone or something?
The Tories have been intimate bedfellows of MI5 (I daresay other alphabet services are equally complicit) for over a century; it’s unthinkable that they wouldn’t give Johnson a leg up.
Rig the polls, rig the ballot.
Any suggestion we live in a functioning democracy is beyond farcical.
Listen to your heart. Vote with your brain.