Below is a list only of constituencies where I think the result will be close, and the Tories will be one of the parties in contention to win it. I recommend how you should vote to keep the Tory out.
It is my judgement that Brexit will guarantee against a Tory/Lib Dem coalition. Johnson’s Tory Party is not Cameron’s Tory Party. Besides, the Lib Dems lost 90% of their MPs from their last coalition with the Tories, and are unlikely to be keen to repeat the experiment. Your vote is yours and you must vote with your conscience. But to block a far right government with media control and serious anti-democratic tendencies, this is my recommendation of which are the really key constituencies where your vote might change the future. I do implore you to consider abandoning your first choice and following my recommendation in these seats.
I expect this election to be very close. A few thousand tactical votes in key seats can really make a serious difference.
This is a much larger list than would normally be sensible. Generally not that many seats are in doubt in our grossly inadequate electoral system. But the Tory campaign to go after broadly northern working class Brexit votes at the expense of broadly southern liberal voters, has put many more seats in doubt. This is my personal selection of where you might make a real difference – it is my list and I have compiled it with great care and without consulting any other such advice out there. My list is informed not just by polls (and my own interpretation of those polls), but on data from the ground and so includes more Tory seats than other lists, as I believe the Tories will lose quite a few. Tomorrow night will be very exciting because so many individual results are uncertain.
Aberconwy – Vote Labour
Aberdeen South – Vote SNP
Ashfield – Vote Labour
Aylesbury – Vote Labour
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock – Vote SNP
Banff and Buchan – Vote SNP
Basingstoke – Vote Labour
Bassetlaw – Vote Labour
Beaconsfield – Vote Independent
Bedford – Vote Labour
Bishop Auckland – Vote Labour
Blackpool South – Vote Labour
Bolsover – Vote Labour
Bradford South – Vote Labour
Brecon and Radnorshire – Vote Lib Dem
Bridgend – Vote Labour
Broxtowe – Vote Labour
Buckingham – Vote Lib Dem
Bury North – Vote Labour
Bury South – Vote Labour
Camarthen East – Vote Plaid Cymru
Camarthen West – Vote Labour
Canterbury – Vote Labour
Carshalton and Wallington – Vote Lib Dem
Central Ayrshire – Vote SNP
Ceredigion – Vote Plaid Cymru
Cheadle – Vote Lib Dem
Chelsea and Fulham – Vote Lib Dem
Cheltenham – Vote Lib Dem
Chesham and Amersham – Vote Lib Dem
Chingford and Woodford – Vote Labour
Chipping Barnet – Vote Labour
Cities of London and Westminster – Vote Labour
Clwyd South – Vote Labour
Clwyd West – Vote Labour
Colne Valley – Vote Labour
Corby – Vote Labour
Coventry North West – Vote Labour
Crewe and Nantwich – Vote Labour
Croydon South – Vote Labour
Dagenham and Rainham – Vote Labour
Delyn – Vote Labour
Dewsbury – Vote Labour
Don Valley – Vote Labour
Dudley North – Vote Labour
Dumfries and Galloway – Vote SNP
East Renfrewshire – Vote SNP
Eastbourne – Vote Lib Dem
East Devon – Vote Independent
Eastleigh – Vote Lib Dem
Esher and Walton – Vote Lib Dem
Filton and Bradley Stoke – Vote Labour
Finchley and Golders Green – Vote Labour
Gedling – Vote Labour
Gloucester – Vote Labour
Gordon – Vote SNP
Great Grimsby – Vote Labour
Guildford – Vote Lib Dem
Hastings and Rye – Vote Labour
Harrow East – Vote Labour
Hazel Grove – Vote Lib Dem
Hendon – Vote Labour
Hitchin and Harpenden – Vote Lib Dem
Hyndburn – Vote Labour
Ipswich – Vote Labour
Keighley – Vote Labour
Kensington – Vote Labour
Lanark and Hamilton East – Vote SNP
Leigh – Vote Labour
Lewes – Vote Lib Dem
Lincoln – Vote Labour
Loughborough – Vote Labour
Maidenhead – Vote Lib Dem
Mid Dorset and North Poole – Vote Lib Dem
Milton Keynes North – Vote Labour
Milton Keynes South – Vote Labour
Monmouth – Vote Labour
Moray – Vote SNP
Morecambe and Lunesdale – Vote Labour
Newbury – Vote Lib Dem
Northampton North – Vote Labour
North Norfolk – Vote Lib Dem
North West Durham – Vote Labour
Norwich North – Vote Labour
Ochil and South Perthshire – Vote SNP
Oxford West and Abingdon- Vote Lib Dem
Penistone and Stockbridge – Vote Labour
Peterborough – Vote Labour
Perth and North Perthshire – Vote SNP
Preseli Pembrokeshire – Vote Labour
Pudsey – Vote Labour
Putney – Vote Labour
Reading West – Vote Labour
Redcar – Vote Labour
Richmond Park – Vote Lib Dem
Romsey and Southampton – Vote Lib Dem
Rother Valley – Vote Labour
Runnymede and Weybridge – Vote Labour
Scunthorpe – Vote Labour
Sedgefield – Vote Labour
Shipley – Vote Labour
Southampton Itchen – Vote Labour
South Cambridgeshire – Vote Lib Dem
South East Cambridgeshire – Vote Lib Dem
South Swindon – Vote Labour
South West Hertfordshire – Vote Independent
South West Surrey – Vote Lib Dem
St Albans – Vote Lib Dem
St Ives – Vote Lib Dem
Stevenage – Vote Labour
Stirling – Vote SNP
Stockton South – Vote Labour
Stoke on Trent North – Vote Labour
Stroud – Vote Labour
Surrey Heath – Vote Lib Dem
Sutton and Cheam – Vote Lib Dem
Taunton Deane – Vote Lib Dem
Thornbury and Yate – Vote Lib Dem
Truro and Falmouth – Vote Labour
Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Vote Labour
Vale of Clwyd – Vote Labour
Vale of Glamorgan – Vote Labour
Warrington South – Vote Labour
Watford – Vote Labour
Wells – Vote Lib Dem
West Aberdeenshire – Vote SNP
West Bromwich East – Vote Labour
West Bromwich West – Vote Labour
Westmorland and Lonsdale – Vote Lib Dem
Wimbledon – Vote Lib Dem
Winchester – Vote Lib Dem
Witney – Vote Lib Dem
Wokingham – Vote Lib Dem
Wolverhampton North East – Vote Labour
Wolverhampton South West – Vote Labour
Worcester – Vote Labour
Workington – Vote Labour
Worsley and Eccles South – Vote Labour
Wrexham – Vote Labour
Wycombe – Vote Labour
Ynys Mon – Vote Plaid Cymru
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A quick glance at the Exit polls puts the SNP on 55 seats, up 20 which is good news, but it gets even better because it means this too:
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-ill-go-skinny-dipping-loch-ness-if-snp-win-50-seats-1338019
What good are those SNP seats against Johnson emboldened by a large majority? Scottish independence is off the agenda for at least another 5 years.
I would imagine an s30 request will go in. And there’s a Holyrood election in a year and a half’s time. Another indyref is quite possible. There is no doubt whatsoever that if Brexit happens it will be a disaster for most people. That’s the point of it. Scottish nationalists will blame the English.
Greece got “Greeced” in a specific way; Iceland got “Icelanded”; Britain is next.
Not surprising by Tory decisive win, the globaliism with open borders impacting the society at large is not what people want today, this is where the left is working against the people by refusing to understand this, being pro-immigration as a political party today isnt something that going to win you any election. That is not to say Tories view on it is the best one, but voters are being left with just this alternative to make a protest sound about it.
The ridiculous smearing of Corbyn have certainly played a role too though.
Could Corbyn still rule Labour after this loss?
The comment below this by some nasty individual called Karma should be deleted. Thanks.
Three guesses on the identity. His twitter contains the same vitriol against Craig especially since he was banned on here. He’s good at acquiring new identities though
If the exit poll is accurate, Corbyn will resign tomorrow.
He has, however, been the greatest leader of the Labour party in my lifetime.
Too true – It looks like has led the Labour Party to its lowest share of the vote in the post war period.
Do you think that people might think Corbyn is a complete tosser?
Take a look at low closely aligned he has always been to people like Michael Foot and Tony Benn. Understand that Benn and Foot both loathed the EU. Nowhere in the annas of history will you find Corbyn disagreeing with their views. Fast forward to today and Corbyn wants to both remain in the EU and leave the EU.
I agree. But the Blairite plp are already salivating. Having been denied satisfaction at the last election they are going to rip him to shreds now. Margaret Hodge first up, its going to be very very ugly..
He was indeed the greatest leader of Labour, that will ever be I fear. I salute him for his courage in standing tall when he was smeared.
Now I guess a neo-liberal, pro-israelite will be put in his place..
I did everything I could to talk up Corbyn during this campaign. The truth is he’s been useless. Watching Corbyn and McDonnell was like watching outtakes from Last of the Summer Wine.
I sort of feel sorry for people in England. They have more austerity, dismantling of the public sector and NHS, rising unemployment, and recession in the post.
Generally speaking, though, we can see there’s very different political cultures in Scotland and England and, again, generally speaking, we can say England chose what it’s got coming.
It’s about time some people on this blog acknowledged the will of the Scottish people. We didn’t turn to racism and right wing extremism when we lost hope. We built a new option, over years and years, and stuck to our principles. Remember principle?
Should anyone really be surprised when you consider apart from ‘Tory Lite’ Blair and Brown that the Conservatives have held power since ’79. The question should be why do Labour get it so spectacularly wrong again and again.
In the immortal words of ‘Gaylord’ (Dick Emery) ”Dad, I got it wrong again!”
I think that the only way forward for the Left and forces of progression, apart from manning the barricades, is to form a new truly socialist party. All the dross, reactionary shit in the Labour Party, like Phillips, Ashworth, Thornbury, even McDonnell can never coexist in the new party.
But I really don’t think our Parliamentary ‘democracy’ is capable of changing anything anyway. So manage your expectations accordingly.
The exit polls are usually within the numbers in the final count. But these exit polls are alarming.
It doesn’t match what I experienced on the doorstep, that showed traditional tories reluctant to commit, and undecided not keen on voting Tory.
I don’t want to clutch at straws here, but that’s what it feels like for now. If Labour has lost then we have lost, but this is very left field until the final results come in.
I too am at a loss to explain this exit poll, it simply doesn’t accord with what unfolded in the campaign, and the widely reported massive turnout of young voters from all over the country. Something is very iffy.
I don’t believe it for a moment. It doesn’t ring true at all.
hear hear
Such a large Tory majority makes a lot of sense considering the media’s portrayal of the political issues and events. (Biased as fuck) However I found it hard to swallow too. I can accept that most of what I saw on the Internet was biased towards the young and urban. But why would the opinion polls narrow so much, yet the exit poll give the result as if the last few weeks never happened? I therefore expect (and hope) that the Tory majority will be much less than predicted.
As Caitlin Johnstone likes to say, “Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World”. Which is obviously true as most of what we know of the world beyond our hands and eyes is from other people. We have witnessed a decent man smeared beyond belief to be seen as an extremist and anti-Jewish. A vast departure from the truth. As economic forces will keep the media in control of the rich and the politicians have every reason to bow to that power, how will policies that benefit the country as a whole ever come to pass? Last time it took a depression and two world wars. Neoliberalism is essentially a copy of 19th century unregulated capitalism but with aeroplanes.
@MD, I do get Brexit, I don’t get the benefits of a Labour Government, and Julian is still in Belmarsh.
To all those Labour remainer mp’s who would not bow to the democratic referendum vote I say thanks a bunch. I can only wish you the worst.
To a party leadership who came out with the cockamamy Brexit policy I also say thanks a bunch.
The economic policies in the labour manifesto were desperately needed by so many people, and for not delivering to them what they deserve I can only say on their behalf to all remainers, thanks a bunch…_
Everything is still possible:
Voters report massive queues at polling stations | The Canary
https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2019/12/12/voters-report-massive-queues-at-polling-stations/
People still queuing round the block as 10pm poll deadline looms | Metro News
https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/12/longest-queues-ever-people-stand-line-around-block-vote-11771760/
What time will the general election results be released? | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-what-time-results-exit-poll-key-seats-boris-johnson-a9242841.html
Thanks JMG. Hopefully those queues will have voters who want to save the NHS and schools.
It was a mixed reception today in Dudley North. This is the seat that Ian Austin vacated advising people to vote Tory. Some of his bile definitely affected others in the constituency. We did our best and will soon know if it was enough. There was great camaraderie and a predominantly young element knocking doors in the pouring rain. There was also an Anglican vicar. At the base (one of the bases) a lovely Asian gentleman kept us all warm and well-fed with a huge box of samosas.
I believe there was a complaint about the number of cars (not from a Labour supporter). I got there about 10.30 a.m. and finding somewhere to park was pretty difficult at that time gradually getting worse by the afternoon. The work done by everyone was absolutely sterling.
The exit polls have disheartened me. They are usually quite accurate. If seats reflect the polls it spells disaster for the country. The first time in my lifetime there was a chance to put a genuine decent person into number 10 will have been squandered.
I hear you, John. Very disappointed indeed. I no longer believe there will be a wake up point when people will start voting in their common interests, it’s been like this for many generations.
Very disturbing. The electorate bought the MSM bullshit. Prepare for the sale of our NHS. But don’t prepare for Brexit any time soon. Johnson said it would take place on 30 (or 31) January. It won’t happen!
Q. How does La Kuenssberg manage to be tweeting without stopping whilst at the same time she is appearing on the screen, looking very much like the Queen of the Night with heavy eye makeup?
Is there a team of Kuenssbergs at work on Twitter?
https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak
I don’t believe the result. We have been expertly fucked.
Anybody know who does the exit poll? Where is it done etc. I can’t find anything.
I know in the past parties each had their own researchers questioning voters after they had cast their vote. I don’t know how it works today, It might be done by a market research team.
All this should be public domain. I can’t find anything. Rig an election, exit polls are where it would show up. You’d have to control the exit polls. We’ve watched Johnson swanning around, acting out, behaving like a man with not a care in the world. Perhaps he knew it didn’t matter what he did?
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/exit-poll-time-general-election-result-accurate-past-predictions-a9243501.html
“… Professor Curtice and company have refined a method that works well: outside a number of polling stations, every nth voter is stopped and asked to mark a replica ballot paper to indicate how they have just voted. Because the stat boffins know how the previous election’s random sample voted, they can estimate how parties’ shares of the vote have changed. From those figures, they project how that seat and seats like it might change…”
Thanks.
There was such a beautiful and great opportunity here, for Britain to be a model of decency throughout the globe, and push back aggressively at the violence of 10 years of Tory rule, and endless neoimperialist conflict.
Unfortunately, the mob that we have become, in all our Americanesqe stupidity, have nobody but ourselves to blame, though we will all now mindlessly jump on the bandwagon scapegoat Corbyn and socialism for what happened, and we won’t hear the end of it till he is banished from politics for good.
I’m really sorry to have to say that, as I had wanted to think better of our country’s people. But as I have predicted all along, socialism for the average brain-washed white man still dreaming of the empire is still the most dangerous phenomenon in the world. For this kind of man to wake up, his house would have to be simultaneously flooding and on fire.
A very sad day for Britain, the British people, and indeed the entire world. Mostly, I pity all the children who are stuck in this god-awful country at the moment.
We are hearing all over the place that there is consolation in the fact that Corbyn’s Labour has changed politics in this country? Really? Maybe for 15 more minutes? The tragic reality, though, is that it will soon be business as usual again.
Your comment contains all the answers.
It is dripping with contempt and hatred for the average person. You are perfectly free to hold them in abject contempt, but ask yourself how likely is that people will vote for people that openly despise them.
Perhaps the error is not with the people – but with those who thought that disparaging and reviling their potential voters was likely to be a winning strategy.
The only party I saw who disparaged the average voter was the Tory party. So Loony how does your post connect with anything?
It might be helpful if you could empathise with what other people can see.
The people in Blythe certainly saw something different from you.
@Loony, well yes they obviously do see things differently to me. Yet I doubt it is Labour viewing them as stupid, where would they get that idea? The far more likely reason would be the media ignoring Tory failures on the economy (slowest recovery from a recession for over hundred years), NHS, homelessness, etc.
While portraying Corbyn as an economic extremist who hates minorities which is ridiculous. His economic policy is simply post war consensus, social democracy, an economic system which has made Europe the richest continent and fairest place to live.
Yes, of course, nothing but contempt for a people that would knowingly vote for racism, xenophobia, privatisation and tax exemption for the ultra wealthy, climate change denial, inequality, overwhelming media bias, warfare, selling off the NHS, making pacts with Trump, scapegoating Europe and immigrants, being nostalgic over empire, blinding following the master. Need I continue? I’m just as Eurosceptic as the next person, but there is no honesty and no class and no sense in the voting public in Britain, and it proves that democracy doesn’t work under oligarchy. As someone else said, the English just love being slaves and treating others like slaves. How could you have anything but contempt?
Excellent post, thanks.
No need to thank me Glenn – I operate on pure altruism.
Are you stupid, or just a liar?
J, strapline at bottom of tv screen on BBC says exit poll taken from 23,790 voters at 144 polling stations.
J wrote:
> Anybody know who does the exit poll? Where is it done etc.
“For the BBC/ITV/Sky poll, opinion research specialists Ipsos Mori conducted tens of thousands of interviews at 144 polling stations – out of around 50,000 – across the country throughout the day on 12 December.”
Exit poll 2019 result: what the UK general election prediction says, and how accurate it usually is | inews
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/exit-poll-2019-uk-general-election-when-time-result-polls-prediction-how-accurate-1336674
Thanks.
Kuensberg tweeted the results og the postal votes which were opened days before the election, totally illegal, imho, but Caithlin Johnson had a good point, the narative is notcontrolled its a rampant horse that lefy the stable long ago.
Its all XR from now on.
It would be naïve even as a Labour supporter not to accept some key reasons why if the exit polls are correct that Labour have suffered a heavy defeat.
Obviously Brexit looks like the major reason and even as a Labour supporter, I always had in the back of my mind that it would still be a kick in the teeth for democracy should Labour win.
Corbyn’s handling of the PLP and not sticking up for some of the hard working and loyal Labour members like Jackie Walker etc..
His unwillingness to attack May and Johnson on their obvious shortcomings when he could have attacked them mercilessly if he wished. (I certainly would have given tit for tat considering all the anti-Semitic vitriol.) Trump wasn’t expected to win against Hillary but he had the gumption to tear her and her husband a new one at some of the debates. That took bottle and showed someone who was a true leader. I think too many people have come away with the impression that Corbyn is too meek and not fit for the role of PM.
Brexit comes up a lot for why Labour will/has lost. Yet people forget that the result was 50/50, more or less.
Labour policy looks pretty clever, hold a final referendum, this can cater to both. If Brexit is the defining issue and Labour do badly then logically the Lib Dems should do well.
Correct. I support brexit, but I voted Labour (Corbyn) because of bigger domestic issues than brexit. This election has been won on brexit. Full stop. Remainers are in the minority in this country, but they have hijacked the Labour party and robbed us of the government we would have got if they hadn’t compromised Corbyn over brexit.
The Gauntlet.
Our hanging chard election.
I’ll wait till 3.30 before admitting defeat.
Blyth Valley going to a recount – good god!
The tories have it – they have never, repeat never held it before.
Scotland does not want any part of this Tory shitfest. UDI and yellow vests for Xmas. Bring it on ! They have been stealing Scotland’s oil wealth for the past 60 + Years. Enough !!!
I’m with you on all of that, every step of the way…
So where are Mr Murray, Dungroanin et al whose analysis predicted, at worst a hung parliament and at best a Labour majority? What the fu*k went wrong? Why the silence?
We have two results in.
Did anyone here predict a Labour majority? Not in my memory.
Also reading many local reports of people turned away and unable to vote.
From twitter: https://twitter.com/MyArrse/status/1205124372740091905
FOR THE PEOPLE THAT HAVE BEEN TURNED AWAY:
If you have lost or not received your polling card the electoral commission says that you can still vote by contacting them and give them your postcode and they will give you a place that you can go to to vote near you.
Lab hold Houghton and Sunderland South but with a 17% swing from Lab to the “Brexit” Party.
Lab lose Blyth Valley to the Tories with a 12% swing from Lab to the “Brexit” Party.
Let’s hear it for the good people in Northern England who voted Labour today! My empathy with them is similar to what it was for members of the National Union of Mineworkers who lived in Nottinghamshire in 1984-85 surrounded by scab scum.
Over to that great Welsh socialist, Nye Bevan:
“That is why no amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party that inflicted those bitter experiences on me. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin. They condemned millions of first-class people to semi-starvation. Now the Tories are pouring out money in propaganda of all sorts and are hoping by this organised sustained mass suggestion to eradicate from our minds all memory of what we went through. But, I warn you young men and women, do not listen to what they are saying now.“
Maybe 10 to 20 years of increasing poverty and misery will help convince others in England that you and Nye had a point…
Of course, the exit poll suffers from at least one of the same problems as earlier more traditional polls: particularly that it is a national poll. Statistically evening out over the whole country, when there are radical local changes that the weighting doesn’t properly allow for. Well, we’ll soon see whether they’re right or not.
Katya is ALIVE.
She finally got a word in edgewise after being carefully handled by Hugh and Laura sitting as far apart.
Made her point.
And DISAPPEARED again.
Wow.
Turnout v low. Bs polls showing big tory lead designed to achieve that low turnout seem to have worked.
Dungroanin
Wrong, not a low turnout at all. I have looked at several seats and they are all within 1.5% of the 2017 election turnout. Our seat in the South East was the same at 64%.
All the extra voters are metropolitan. The brexit party have played a spoiler by only standing in seats tories could win. Two cheeks of the same arse.
Low turnout adding to damage.
Farage earned his.
The Gauntlet was mighty.
The mudslinging stuck.
The gaslighting worked.
Yup the Blairite cheek of the empire has survived.
The membership will not restore them to power.
The country is further divided.
The ex Labour peeps aren’t going to see anything to show for buying the lie.
This is not any longer the post war social democratic country left to us.
This was the last chance to restore it.
The Hard brexit zombie lives.
Goodnight.Sorry.
Well this big list worked out well for Labour ! They were stupid to ignore what their, used to be, loyal working class supporter base had voted for way back in summer 2016, told them they were racists and fools to want to leave the wonderful socialist European Union and will have to vote again in a second referendum should they be elected. Totally talking from their own backsides and perhaps if the north-London Labour elite had got off them and visited the towns they hardly know about, they would have found the truth, although I doubt with the arrogance they display, would probably still choose to ignore them. Goodbye Labour you had your chance and blew it.
Billy Brexit !
Great post, the arrogance of Labour – NEW LABOUR – was astounding. I predicted what would happen as soon as the election was announced.
Labour committed political suicide, Blythe and Sedgefield plus many others made that obvious.
Labour lost because it was divided. The Tories will stand as one man behind any leader of their Party when the moment comes. The Kinnocks and Hodges of the Labour Party destroyed their chance to lead Britain out of Austerity and into a new Green technological revolution. They failed to muzzle the lies and defamation in the media, and maybe even believe some of it themselves. Democracy matters. Labour couldn’t respect that. Corbyn has been an inspiration. He has shown half the country that a better way is possible. The other half have Stockholm syndrome, and that is sad.
The Tories are looking at changing the political system itself. Proportional representation is much needed. Boris tested the power that the monarch has, to prorogue Parliament, and it works, even though she didn’t, and Boris lied and pretended she had. Strange times.