Knowledge of Kazakhstan in the West is extremely slim, particularly among western media, and many responses to events there have been wildly off-beam.
The narrative on the right is that Putin is looking to annex Kazakhstan, or at least the majority ethnic Russian areas in the north. This is utter nonsense.
The narrative on the left is that the CIA is attempting to instigate another colour revolution and put a puppet regime into Nur-Sultan (as the capital is called this week). This also is utter nonsense.
The lack of intellectual flexibility among western commentators entrapped in the confines of their own culture wars is a well-established feature of modern political society. Distorting a picture into this frame is not so easily detectable where the public have no idea what the picture normally looks like, as with Kazakhstan.
When you jump into a taxi in Kazakhstan, getting your suitcase into the boot is often problematic as it will be already full with a large LPG canister. Roof racks are big in Kazakhstan. Most Kazakh vehicles run on LPG, which has traditionally been a subsidised product of the nation’s massive oil and gas industry.
Fuel price rises have become, worldwide, a particular trigger of public discontent. The origins of the gilets jaunes movement in France lay in fuel price rises before spreading to other areas of popular greivance. The legacy of fuel protests in the UK have led for years cowardly politicians to submit to annual real reductions in the rate of fuel duty, despite climate change concerns.
The current political crisis in Kazakhstan was spiked by moves to deregulate the LPG market and end subsidy, which led to sharp price increases. These brought people onto the streets. The government quickly backed down and tried to reinstate price controls but not producer subsidies; that would have led gas stations to sell at a loss. The result was fuel shortages that just made protest worse.
Kazakhstan is an authoritarian dictatorship with extreme divisions in wealth and power between the ruling class – often still the old Soviet nomenklatura and their families – and everybody else. No political opposition is permitted. Infamously, after a massacre of striking miners, Tony Blair contacted former dictator Nazarbayev offering his PR services to help limit political fallout. This resulted in a $4 million per year contract for Blair to assist Kazakhstan’s PR, a contract on which BBC favourites Jonathon Powell and Alastair Campbell both worked.
One result of the Blairite media management for Kazakhstan was that the Guardian, publishing US leaked diplomatic cables in cooperation with Wikileaks, refused to publish US Embassy reports on corruption in Kazakhstan.
The Kazakh dictatorship is also a favourite destination of troughing royals Prince Andrew and Prince Michael of Kent.
I always viewed President Nazarbayev as the smartest of the Central Asian dictators. He allowed much greater individual economic freedom than in neighbouring Uzbekistan; Kazakhs could build up enterprises without the fear of having them confiscated at whim by the ruling family, and the collective farm land was given to native farmers and production diversified. Nazarbayev in foreign affairs skilfully balanced between Russia, the West and China, never definitively tilting in one direction. Ethnic Russian technocrats and academics were not driven from the country. Gazprom was not permitted to obtain dominant economic control.
There was no question of democracy being permitted or any form of opposition being given a voice. Media remained firmly under state control; internet access was restricted through designated ISP’s – I believe that has subsequently loosened, but I will not pretend to know the detail. But as in all systems with no democratic accountability and with effective legal impunity for the elite, corruption worsened, systems became sclerotic and frustration and resentment among the general population has built naturally.
The change of President two years ago from Nazarbayev to Tokayev brought no substantial changes in who runs the country.
The fuel price rises triggered protest, and once a population that had seen no outlet for its frustration viewed the chance to protest, then popular frustration erupted into popular dissent. However with no popular opposition leaders to direct it, this quickly became an incoherent boiling up of rage, resulting in destruction and looting.
So where do the CIA come in? They don’t. They were trying to groom a banned opposition leader (whose name I recall as Kozlov, but that may be wrong) but then discovered he was not willing to be their puppet, and the scheme was abandoned under Trump. The CIA were as taken aback by events as everybody else, and they don’t have any significant resources on the ground, or a Juan Gaido to jet in.
So where does Putin come in? Well, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation is a club of authoritarian ex-Soviet leaders. Interestingly, Uzbekistan never joined because Karimov always worried (with some justification) Putin might wish to depose him. President Tokayev’s call for help is a very definite sign of internal weakness. All the CSTO countries have an interest in discouraging popular unrest, so it is unsurprising they have sent in troops, but in numbers which can make no real difference in a vast country like Kazakhstan (which is really, really, really big).
So what happens next? I expect the regime will survive, but then neither I, nor any observer I know of, predicted this would happen in the first place. The unrest will be blamed, entirely untruthfully, on Islamic terrorists and western support. The real consequence may be in the globally important pipeline politics of the region, where there may be a long term shift away from China and towards Russia.
There will be frustration in Beijing as much as in Washington. Tokayev is now indebted to Putin in a way he never has been before. I can guarantee that emergency meetings at the highest level are taking place between the Kremlin and Gazprom right now to determine what they want to leverage from the situation. Putin, as Napoleon might have observed, is an extremely lucky general.
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“neither I, nor any observer I know of, predicted this would happen in the first place. “
That was what I thought too. I can only guess that Tokayev is not as strong a ruler as Nazarbayev, even though Nazarbayev must be acting in the background, and T lost control of the situation. It was obviously very serious, and I’m not sure that Tokayev’s assurances today that it is all over are convincing. Calling in Russian forces and CSTO forces didn’t look good.
By the way, in my view, Kazakhstan is not simply a post-Soviet dictatorship. The Stalinist apparatus in Central Asia was simply a continuation in another form of the pre-Russian absolutist Turco-Mongol emirates there, going back to the Chagatay Khanate. Throwing Burnes down a well in Bukhara was just an example of their behaviour, harsher than surrounding regions. The modern Central Asian states simply perpetuate the traditions of several centuries ago, but under another name. Kazakhstan may be more positive than the nutters in Turkmenistan for example, but it’s not essentially different. Success by protestors won’t lead to democracy, just another absolutist regime, as there is no democratic tradition.
On an anecdotic level, I did see Nazarbayev once. I was taken by my host professor to see his visit to the city that is now called Taraz. I was interested to see how the public reacted to the arrival, and evidently I had to wait hours under the hot sun to see him rush by to visit a school or something. But it was evident that the public cheering was not as forced as in Turkmenistan where they bus in secondary schoolchildren to do the obligatory cheering in the soviet style.
I think the key to all this is who decided that doubling LPG prices would be a good idea. Of course, others then piggy backed onto a legitimate economic protest. In my mind there was far too much shooting, killing and rioting within a very short space of time for this to have been spontaneous. There was also a very fast CSTO response with troops sent in by plane. And Putin and Biden are meeting in Geneva on Monday.
This is really intersesting, Craig. I’ve missed this and hope you are settlnig back into life well.
Is that really the narrative though? From what I’ve read in the mainstream news cryptocurrency miners displaced from China (after a ban) to Kazakhstan have spiked energy consumption triggering prices rises.
The Soviet-vintage electricity grid has up to 70% transmission losses and Crypto mining is using nearly 10% of Khazak power during the very cold winter months. People are in the position of freezing to death due to price rises caused by cryptocurrency grifters. Not the CIA or Putin.
That is the kind of nonsense you get in the western media Maya.. The crypto mine set-up is certainly true, and was encouraged by the Kazakh government. But consumer electricity prices have not increased significantly and nor has district heating, which is how almost all urban Kazakhs heat their homes (rural ones use solid fuel). Electricity very little to do with heating.
– “From what I’ve read in the mainstream news…”
Sounds like poppycock to me. Energy prices are in immense upheaval the world over. Lebanon ran out of diesel for its generators last autumn, Albania declared a state of emergency in October, Kosovo entered rolling power cuts just before Christmas, China has been restricting industry to keep domestic lights on, etc. etc. etc.
Kazakhstan has some 18 or 19 gigawatt electricity generation for their 19 million population, which is slightly better than the UK’s 55 gigawatt for 67 million population. The grid has had extensive recent upgrades:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=KEGOC&oldid=1060372500#Projects
And the Soviet grid was just the same as everyone else’s. Cryptocurrency mining may make some small difference, but it looks to me that Craig has a much clearer overview.
– “…caused by cryptocurrency grifters”
Chinese grifters, displaced by the Chinese government. The “mainstream” rarely miss a chance to bash China!
When computers mine cryptocurrency, all the electricity still ends up as heat; it just does a load of calculations on its way there. So unless the computers are in a sweltering shed at the bottom of the garden, this can make no difference.
I use BTC mining on a very small scale to heat my apartment. Never switched on the electric heaters ever.
Thanks for that apposite assessment really have missed that during the crazy few months we had.
Is it not a surprise that knowing there would be massive upset at the doubling of lpg prices overnight – that they still went ahead?
I understand that to be in a region far from the capitals anyway.
I have also seen reports of cars appearing and handing out weapons to protestors – many who turned up and started the physical attacks on police and building security. There are also reports thousands of such persons have been injured and some brutality murdered.
If Putin is gaining advantage from this – we can only be a step away from accusing him of master planning the whole thing. Then again he was always portrayed as a good judo practitioner. So I’ll start that ball rolling ?
One fact that has also not been mentioned is how vital the Baikonor facilty is and has been ever since they developed their space programs in the ‘50’s.
‘ The spaceport is currently leased by the Kazakh Government to Russia until 2050 and is managed jointly by the Roscosmos State Corporation and the Russian Aerospace Forces. ’
Less than 30 years left on that lease, just as Humanity finally moves into Space! The Moon Base and joint China/Russia missions are aiming for fast developments.
Yup there looks like a better deal to be made …it’ll be more than Gazprom who could benefit.
What does Moscow have to gain?
I expect, that Gazprom and it’s potential market aren’t the bargain here.
Much rather my guess is, that access to the BRI (belt and road initiative) would be a long term goal for Russia, which also would strengthen their negotiation position with Beijing. This would also make Tokayev look less weak internally.
Yes, though to be clear Gazprom are interested in Kazakhstan as a source rather than as a market.
Am I right in thinking Kazakhstan sits on huge gas reserves? Or is that Turkmenistan?
Yep, and oil. And Turkmenistan has loads of gas too:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves&oldid=1060650964
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Energy_policy_of_Kazakhstan&oldid=1064207191#Primary_energy_sources
– “Kazakhstan’s domestic hydrocarbon [actually gas] reserves amount to 3.3–3.7 trillion cubic metres of gas, of which 2.5 tcm are proven.”
Kazakhstan is also the world’s leading uranium producer. Not sure that is a factor in the weeks goings on as Craig so adequately surmised but I would imagine of great importance to both Russia and China who continue to expand their nuclear energy production facilities and are in the process of bringing new models onlline. Part of the joint Russia/China moon base is research for mining Helium3 in short supply on earth but plentiful on the moon supposedly. Base to be established by 2031 at the last glance.
Craig, thank you very much for this clear and simple explanation of the situation in Kazakhstan. You wrote:
– “Fuel price rises have become, worldwide, a particular trigger of public discontent. The origins of the gilets jaunes movement in France lay in fuel price rises before spreading to other areas of popular greivance. The legacy of fuel protests in the UK have led for years cowardly politicians to submit to annual real reductions in the rate of fuel duty, despite climate change concerns.”
Yes, we need climate and fuel justice, urgently.
The fossil fuels are nature’s legacy and all humankind’s inheritance, which neolibralism is burning through as fast as they can be extracted. But that rate of extraction is falling, due to depletion:
https://richardheinberg.com/museletter-346-the-end-of-growth-ten-years-after
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Russian-gas-amid-market-tightness.pdf
eg: “For almost forty years, Russia’s gas output has been supported by the Soviet legacy of super-giant Cenomanian gas fields in the Nadym-Pur-Taz (NPT) region in Western Siberia, but these fields are now in irreversible decline. Gazprom has been trying to manage the output decline by developing wet gas from deeper layers of the NPT super-giants, initially from Valanginian, and recently from Achimov deposits, but this can only slow the natural decline of the NPT production, not reverse it.”
This declining supply has thrown fuel prices into chaos and turmoil the world over, eg:
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1473771306739019788
If the fossil fuels belong to anyone, they belong to everyone equally, because they are the very foundation upon which the economic system rests, they are literally of the planet beneath our feet, and are like the soil, water and air upon which all are dependent.
A fair way forward would be to issue fossil fuel ration tokens to everyone in the world, declining year on year in accordance with the need to reduce emissions and to avoid excessive depletion before it is too late. Poorer people use less than their share, and could sell any excess tokens, whereas us in the industrialised countries would have to buy them, redressing the present gross fuel and emissions injustice.
Craig, thank you for clarifying the situation in Kazakhstan, these fuel related issues are hard to understand when they are accompanied by the sable rattling nonsense in the main stream media.
Indeed. Over all the sabre rattling, you can barely hear our fuel supply gushing away.
I suspect that a lot of the suspicion that the Kazakh affair is another attempted colour revolution is misplaced, just as you say it is. On the other hand, as you point out, the U.S. has a lot of fingers in that particular pie, many of them extremely grubby ones. And, of course, with the U.S. sabre-rattling around the region, it’s understandable that there should be a lot of suspicion, even though as a diplomat your take is understandably more judicious. But even paranoids have enemies . . .
That the CIA was not ready, is not the same thing as saying it was not the CIA.
They weren’t ready with Venezuela but went ahead anyway and ultimately failed (at the great cost of sanctioned Venezuelans).
They weren’t ready with Belarus but went ahead. They weren’t ready in HK but went ahead.
As the world bifurcates into China group and US group the US is losing time and ground rapidly.
Wait any longer and not only the opportunity for Regime change disappears, but so even does the opportunity to make trouble for Russia or China or to win any brownie points with Western media.
This is not about Regime change, this is about getting the best exposure for all the work Regime change spies have put in over the past 20 years before the profitable contracts get shut down. 6 years ago they could say Ukraine and maybe Syria. Now all they can say is Ukraine revealed a lot of Biden corruption and everywhere else is an embarrassment.
I spent a bit of time in and around Kazakhstan during the early nineties, and I’d say that Craig’s summation of the situation is spot on. I did wonder, given it’s close proximity to China, whether they were involved, either covertly or overtly, but they too must be watching developments with some concern. You see, whilst oil and gas are major items in the Kazakh economy, there are lots of precious metals hidden under its desert landscape, most of which end in -ium. The country is vast – it is the 9th largest country in the world, yet has a population of just 19 million. It is the classic example of a far away country of which we know little.
I can only guess at how loud the alarm bells must have rung in the Kremlin with news of the uprising. Kazakhstan is of course landlocked, so the pipelines into Russia are the principal means of exporting the oil and gas. I imagine the more authoritative surrounding states are watching developments, too and perhaps putting more boots on the streets, just in case.
MOA had a piece yesterday relating to Kazakhstan:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/the-us-directed-rebellion-in-kazakhstan-may-well-strengthen-russia.html#more
He seems to feel that USA is somehow involved citing a RAND list of ” economical, geopolitical, ideological and informational as well as military measures the U.S. should take to weaken Russia” and various other reasons for his view.
Hard to know what is going on.
Yeah, but Bernhard does think it is a colour revolution. My impression is that it came out of the woodwork too rapidly for that. It takes time for the US to foment revolutions.
The CIA has been there for years!
The CIA has been everywhere for years. But their influence in Kazakhstan is minimal.
The US State Department knew something was going to happen.
https://kz.usembassy.gov/demonstration-alert121521/
I am not trying to say that the US is behind it, though. Chevron has billions invested in the country. There are I think a couple of US sponsored level 4 biowarfare labs there, too. But Mukhtar Ablyazov has been running things out of Kiev. And I wonder what role second prime minister Kazhegeldin has in all of this.
What a Great Game.
Thank you!
Thanks for this post, it’s so interesting to see informed perspective from someone with more knowledge. I have pretty much seen the same dichotomy of speculation as well.
I did see one different theory that maybe you could comment on: I would like to hear your thoughts on the legitimate protests possibly being leveraged by MI6. The comment I read was speculating that the new (ish?) head of MI6, Richard Moore, was very interested in Kazakhstan. I have no knowledge or any opinion on the merits of this, but would love to hear what you think.
‘So what happens next?’
In my personal opinion, that is a question for the same entity that controls the Kazakhstan central bank and the CIA.
Guessing, I would say the objective is to introduce martial law in Kazakhstan as a test run for other nations in a similar way to the draconian measures in Australia and New Zealand, France and Holland which are testing citizens tolerances regards liberty and free speech.
When Kazakhstan hit the news I remembered that a family relation was once working ther for Shell, which had made me realise that the country must be safe enough for global oil company employees to work there. But apparently Shell pulled out of the country in 2019 after investing £900 million in offshore drilling.
Did Shell see USUKIS losing its grip on Syria to Russia and decide that the political risks of working outside US hegemony were too great? Their investment might be nationalised or something?
Once USUKIS saw that it was militarily inferior to Russia, they have continuously publicly abused mainly Russia but also China. I am happy I get my gas from Shell, so I don’t want to tread on any eggshells.
Chevron is there. They are reporting social stability in their production region. Same with the main uranium mining operations.
This suggests that there are several other states with an interest in changing the political map of Central Asia: Turkey is one of them, the UK, presumably as a stalking horse for Washington, is another.
https://journal-neo.org/2022/01/06/british-intelligence-intensifies-its-struggle-against-russia-and-china-in-central-asia/
Good find. MI6 grooming the black flag men and headchoppers of Central Asia while Blair advises the dictators. The author sees Turkey as a battering ram for British interests in that part of the world. Would be interested to see Craig’s thoughts on this piece.
Poor find. Do you think anyone takes British efforts seriously these days? Britain has become an international joke. That article is just a replay of the Great Game, as Craig has written about. When I was in Kazakhstan, British presence was minimal, the embassy just an apartment.
I take you extremely seriously.
In Bevin’s article Farghana Valley was mentioned and even if O/T there is great video about “water wars” in the region impacting
Kyrgyzstan Tadsjikistan Uzbekistan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhaUxg1wGVU . I realy do like Caspian report
This analysis fails to explain the origin of the organized, trained, and armed terrorists decapitating heads of police and, in general, pushing domestic protests toward higher and higher levels of violence and chaos. Where did those terrorists come from?
Exactly, this part of the equation needs far more light shining on it. It is very easy to dismiss cause A or cause B as Craig does, but I think that would only be possible if this other part was explained first.
Some answers in the article posted above by bevin.
One of the cities where the protests are taking place is Almaty, the old capital, which is very close to Kazakhstan’s borders with Kyrgyzstan (where there have been Color Revolution coups in the past) and Xinjiang province in China. Odd how Color Revolution protests seem to start first in a nation’s border regions with the potential to spill over into other countries with potentially restive groups.
There have been past reports on online alt media sites – Land Destroyer comes to mind – of Uyghur separatists travelling through third party countries (and causing trouble there) in other parts of Asia to Syria on fake passports to fight for ISIS and other Islamist jihadi groups. Reports of protesters in Kazakhstan beheading police officers are troubling in this respect.
Good points. Almaty is 10 hours from Tashkent in a Toyota Land Cruiser and another 10 hours or so from the northern border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, where ISIS-K was rumored to be headed a few months ago.
In any case the CSTO troops are now guarding, and will continue to guard, airports, armories, and infrastructure. I’m guessing that Tokayev’s military and police now have the ability to focus on the rioters, and they will be looking for retribution given the first and second nights of the real troubles.
I’m going to give Tokayev the benefit of the doubt that he will implement more than just the shoot-to-kill-rioters order in his very commanding – but temperate – speech to the nation.
Jen,
Brian Berletic (Tony Cartalucci of the LD blog) is now doing a lot of EeewTube & Odysey work as “The New Atlas”
https://www.youtube.com/c/TheNewAtlas and at https://newatlas.report/
Just a comment that may be my misunderstanding:
“The legacy of fuel protests in the UK have led for years cowardly politicians to submit to annual real reductions in the rate of fuel duty, despite climate change concerns.”
As Gordon Brown approx. said: ‘Tax is Tax and mine to spend anyway I choose.’
It doesn’t matter what label you put on it (Fuel Duty, Motor Tax, Green Tax), it all goes in one giant brown paper bag to be shared out, amongst mates, as the regime sees fit.
If Brown thought that Tax is Tax, then he should have abolished National Insurance and VAT.
Abolishing NI and VAT would end a big subsidy for rich bastards….
Nothing to do with Brown. British tax principles have long time been that all goes into the general fund. The name National Insurance is just a name; it’s just a tax with a nice name that makes you think you are paying for your well-being, but it’s just another tax. I forget when the principle came into being, but I would guess fifties, as National Insurance introduced in 1948 must have had a meaning originally, and things have been like that since I’ve been conscious of politics.
But if you don’t pay your NI, you don’t get your pension. (That is if you’re a man; my ex-wife got a full pension despite not working).
And this looked promising, (first link) and the head of MI6 Richard Moore also has penchant for Central Asia, British law enforcement and intelligent agencies showed a particular zeal for strengthening Britain’s position in Central Asia through their involvement with the elder daughter of Nursultan Nazarbayev and the disgraced daughter of the late Islam Karimov.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/the-us-directed-rebellion-in-kazakhstan-may-well-strengthen-russia.html#more
https://journal-neo.org/2022/01/06/british-intelligence-intensifies-its-struggle-against-russia-and-china-in-central-asia/
Although I haven’t been in Kazakhstan in fifteen years or more, I’m pretty sure British influence is not far above zero.
> this quickly became an incoherent boiling up of rage
This is the weak part of your argument, as the “boiling” seemed to be pretty “coherent”. The speed of transformation from protests to burnings was incredible, and the militants appeared to be organized and directed.
Any reports of head-chopping by the “protesters” yet?
Yes, two cops were reported beheaded, the calling card IS headchoppers.
With respect Craig, I must disagree. The speed with which the peaceful protests were hijacked by ARMED thugs and the shift from fuel prices as the issue to breaking all alliances with Russia suggests a highly organised See this quoted in Bernhard’s article:
‘NEXTA, the U.S. financed regime change media network in Poland which last year directed the failed color revolution attempt in Belarus, announced the U.S. demands:
‘NEXTA @nexta_tv – 13:52 UTC · Jan 5, 2022
Demands of the Protesters in #Kazakhstan
1. Immediate release of all political prisoners
2. Full resignation of president and government
3. Political reforms:
Creation of a Provisional Government of reputable and public citizens. Withdrawal from all alliances with #Russia.’
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/the-us-directed-rebellion-in-kazakhstan-may-well-strengthen-russia.html#more
And see this Twitter thread which explains how it was not JUST a spontaneous movement. See:
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1479372093670240269?t=OLkjL7qWfE11yAdVPSY_SA&s=19
What Kazakhstan is – alongside a country bordering both Russia and China, and hosting at least one of the US outsourced beioweapons research labs (to circumvent the 1975 BW Convention, the host country has no say in what goes on and the US ‘sceintists’ travel with full diplomatic immunity):
A 2019 RAND report outlining proposals to disrupt Russia in the ‘stans.
Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground – RAND Report 2019
https://media.washtimes.com/media/misc/2019/04/24/RAND_RR3063.pdf
The NED funding the usual regime change suspect – civil society, strengthen the media, encourage democracy. Journalists such as Assange need not apply.
KAZAKHSTAN 2020 – NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY
https://www.ned.org/region/eurasia/kazakhstan-2020/
And the State Department / Pentagon had their plans including spending on military bases in Kazakhstan and the environs – just as they planned to do in Crimea shortly before the 2014 maidan.
Projects that deliver “real, measurable results”
April 3, 2021: The US State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will allocate more than $1.5 million for activities aimed at strengthening the capacity of civil society organizations and “protecting human rights and freedoms” in Kazakhstan. According to the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Relations, the United States is interested in providing assistance to Kazakh civil society organizations whose activities are “focused on protecting fundamental freedoms.” Washington showed particular interest in the development of “freedom of association” in the republic.
The purpose of the Bureau is to promote respect for and strengthen the protection of freedom of association in Kazakhstan and ensure that the views of Kazakh citizens are fully represented in President Tokayev’s “listening state” by strong, diverse and resilient civil society organizations that are able to effectively advocate for their interests on behalf of citizens before Kazakh government officials and society at large.”
April 19, 2021: The U.S. Embassy is accepting applications for grants to implement projects aimed at strengthening the Kazakhstan media market by promoting professional journalism standards, introducing innovative approaches to news collection or distribution, and supporting the development of mutual information exchange.
Project proposals should focus on one of the following topics::
Topic 1: Innovative approaches to collecting or distributing news, particularly among the younger population.
Topic 2: Promotion of professional journalism standards, in particular, fact-checking, information validation, and fact-based reporting.
Topic 3: Supporting the financial sustainability of the media in Kazakhstan, including alternative sources of income, by training the media in various business models and methods for growing their audience.
Topic 4: Support the development of exchanges or networks of professionals for better reporting, ethical and objective journalism, etc.
Topic 5: Analysis of trends in media content consumption, disinformation / misinformation in Kazakhstan and other biases.
April 22, 2021: The US State Department plans to allocate up to $120,000 for an initiative to “strengthen” the media market in Kazakhstan.
The program aims to strengthen the mass media in Kazakhstan by improving the professionalism of journalists and reducing the negative impact of fake news in Kazakhstan.
As it is specified, the American side intends to contribute to the” strengthening “of the media market in the Central Asian republic in several ways, for example, by financing projects on the application of” innovative approaches ” to the dissemination of news.
Supporting the” financial sustainability ” of Kazakhstan’s media and developing specialist exchange programs are also in the scope of US interests under the new program.
As the State Department stressed, priority will be given to the initiatives of those applicants for funding whose projects will bring ” real, measurable results.”
May 20, 2021: The United States plans to spend $ 240 million to build military facilities in 20 countries around the world, namely in the Middle East and Central Asia regions, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
The decapitation of the police officers is straight out of the ISIS playbook – Turkey has probably shipped a few across to stop them doing the same in Turkey.
This is all standard CIA regime change playbook stuff, based on hijacking of legitimate protests and subverting them to regime change (seen in Libya, Syria, Ukraine, etc).
From the table of contents of the 2019 RAND Report:
Table of contents of the 2019 RAND Corporation report with proposals for activating hybrid warfare against the Russian Federation:
1. Supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine. Cheque.
2. Support for terrorists in Syria. Cheque.
3. An attempt to change the regime in Belarus. Cheque.
4. Aggravation in the South Caucasus. Check.
5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia. In process.
6. Challenge the Russian presence in Moldova. Expected.
Moldova and Transdniestria will be next after Kazakhstan.
Link please 🙂
I don’t believe that RAND releases stuff like that. If it’s a leak, we need its history.
https://media.washtimes.com/media/misc/2019/04/24/RAND_RR3063.pdf
Link in the MOA article Clark.
Thank you both.
I do wish people would link as a matter of course. Why should readers believe bald assertions?
In fainess Clark the links were clearly referenced as far as I can tell at least three times.
I am just gonna say that these forums need to be updated. I will happily contribute to that happening. We need a search function that works. We need an aggregation function that works for topics.
You have moved beyond a following Craig. Now you are a leader, so lead.
– “You have moved beyond a following Craig. Now you are a leader, so lead.”
I second that.
– “In fainess Clark the links were clearly referenced as far as I can tell at least three times.”
I had somehow missed Arfur Mo’s Jan 7, 21:48 comment. Odd, because it looks very conspicuous today.
And the bbc are in the thick of it. Dead giveaway!
Arfur Mo
The definition of a think tank is an organisation that thinks clearly about its own benefit but bever gives a seconds thought to the terrible effect of anything they plan on anybody else.
ISIS is a think tank, conceived , funded, hosted, defended , in Washington , Tel Aviv and London how to contravene International Law without publicly having to do it themselves.
Putin an Xi are about to make a stand against these criminals from USUKIS. To be honest, they have to make that stand sooner rather than later. It will be nice to see the USUKIS war criminals crawl back into their holes when looking down the barrell of a nuclear bomb pointing at themselves.
They might Think differently faced with their own and their fellow crustaceans’ extinction.
Thank for this Clear narrative on Events in Kazakhstan Craig.. I did get the impression that it wasn’t a CIA sponsored uprising, Unlike Ukraine.
There is a good analysis on Here at RT –
” Kazakhstan also has a large Russian community: 3.5 million ethnic Russians account for 18.4% of the country’s total population. Among them are the descendants of the Cossacks, who are known to have lived in the territory of present-day Kazakhstan since at least the 16th and 17th centuries. Imperial Russia used to exile many political opponents of the regime to Kazakhstan, while the USSR later used to assign some of its best experts in industry and agriculture to help develop the region. The safety of the Russian community in Kazakhstan, with its rich history, is of great concern to Russia.
By Dmitry Plotnikov, a political journalist exploring the history and current events of ex-Soviet states
https://www.rt.com/russia/545219-kazakhstan-protests-nationalists-security/?
I would suggest that the next few weeks will tell if external actors have their hand on the scales.
If this really is a spontaneous grass-roots expression of outrage over energy price hikes then the intervention of CSTO troops will put a clamp on things very quickly: even the angriest rabble are no match for Spetsnaz troops.
But if the rioting morphs quickly into armed – and organized – rebellion then, honestly, such a transformation has to be directed by someone, somewhere. And the quicker it happens the more likely it is that this was the plan all along.
Surprisingly large country covering a large part of western Europe – there’s an image superimposed on twitter. With a relative small population and probably most importantly of all, the largest uranium deposits – it’s the world’s largest producer hence the price spike after these events. Given its strategic importance and geographical location you can wager certain western intel agencies are kicking themselves for getting caught napping, if not on the ground?
You can hardly blame the left for seeing these events in a certain way given the context and similarity to previous destabilization efforts. Particularly in light of Belarus where similarly the Russians threw Lukashenko a lifeline. Whether CIA-fanned or not, these uprisings are working well for Russia, cementing influence as they turn up to stabilize chaotic situations: Syria, Venezuela; Belarus now Kazakhstan…If you have a problem, if no one else can help, and if you can find them….maybe you can hire Putin’s A-Team.
“surprisingly large country covering a large part of western Europe…”
“Western Asia”?
As in,… when superimposed using the same map scale over W. Europe.
When reading it back I immediately thought someone may misunderstand the point. I should have been clearer, my bad.
Thanks for the explanation! Clear now, and quite usefully vivid.
I used to work as an editor, and the habits die hard. 8-}
I followed the development, and here is what’s reported:
The Mangystau region is a vast region with 90% of the oil and gas industry. There are many foreign corporations with a share of about 50%; Gazprom, by the way, has only about 5%. Foreign corporations export products out of the country. Foreign management optimizes business in such a way that the local population loses social packages and the latest “optimization” has led to a shortage and an increase in fuel prices in the country.
The strikes lasted for about a year, and the last time they became large-scale. President Tokayev imposed state price fixing for six months, dissolved the government, and arrested the director responsible for raising the fuel price in the region.
But this economic protest quickly turned into a political one. Coordination centers with Ukrainian phone numbers appeared on the Internet, and the Belarusian Nexta supported the political protest too. Then Mukhtar Ablyazov, the ex-Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan convicted of financial fraud and released from prison in France, called himself the leader of the protest.
Protests have engulfed all regions of Kazakhstan, have become violent and organized. People in the streets burn ambulances, city hall buildings, seize the airport, block roads, loot. Cars without registration plates drive up to the square and distribute firearms. There are reports of 8 police officers killed, two of them beheaded.
President Tokayev removed Nazarbayev from the Department of National Security and requested assistance from the allied states. Nazarbayev and his daughters left the country with their families.
Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, Russia sent their military – this contingent does not engage in combat with the protesters, but guard strategic facilities like airports and military units.
to better understand how it looks from Russia:
the Kazakhstani state is young, and the people, that is, society, is very ancient and has many features of eastern tribalism, tribal clans, they call it Zhuz.
The elder zhuz, where Nazarbayev and Tokayev come from, manage and distribute wealth. The younger zhuz owns a territory with oil and gas fields. So social protest also has such a shade of clan war.
The lands of the younger zhuz are inhospitable, the population is considered barbaric and aggressive, there was no stable centralized power in those territories for a long historically significant time. They say that the influence of Wahhabism is strong there.
In Kazakhstan’s informal system of zhuzes, the clergy stands out and are considered a white bone. Ablyazov considers it necessary to mention that he belongs to the Khoja clan, that is, from the descendants of Muhammad.
I know that Muslim believers when they mention the name of Muhammad, they add the phrase “may Allah greet him and bless him”. I’m not Islamic or Christian and generally not religious, but I understand what respect for people means.
What does “white bone” mean?
noble lineage, ancestry of those who never worked manually themselves, but ruled those who did.
Compared to Judaism, within their semi-mystical genealogy, the Coen family was a caste of priests. Roughly the same is attributed to the Khoja tribal clan, in Asian muslim mythology.
Thanks for the cwhite bone clarification and your interesting observation about the clans. Thanks too to Craig for his observations.
David Graber was an unusual anthropologist (eg his Lost people book on Magic and Legacy of Slavery in Madagascar.) and pity he didn’t go to Kazakhstan. I say that because your white bone expression reminded me of that book.
As an outsider it is very difficult to understand the dynamics in a country of which I know so little. I can only think that presumably the lot of the average inhabitant in Kazakhstan is at least conciserably better than that of the average Uighar inhabitant of Xinjiang. I hope there are no “bio-labs” there, but that they still have the original strain of apple tree and that it is it still blight free.
So (at the risk of souding completely out of touch and off the mark) are you saying there is basically a clash between a Sufi / Khoja “white bone” aristocracy and an oil field Wahabi group?
In November there were public discussions on the Biosafety Level 4 lab in Guardeisky town in the South Kazakhstan, looks like people objected strongly
https://legalacts.egov.kz/npa/view?pageComment=77&id=12756498
World wide biolabs, you may find on the map
https://www.globalbiolabs.org/
Like “blue blood” in English?
Thanks – interesting map.
Difficult to imagine that Mukhtar Ablayzov would be supported by the US.
Fwl
listen, I’m not an expert in these political matters of yours, but I’ve seen something in my country and the surrounding ex-USSR republics.
It looks like a classic protest of workers in poor industrial regions against the ruling elite, which, in an effort to maximize profits according to the Western model of management, infringes on the social guarantees of workers and neglects their standard of living.
The fugitive oligarch, offended by the current government, Ablyazov, like Khodorkovsky, is trying to ride this wave of protest movement. The Ukrainian and Belarusian anti-Russian oppositionists are also trying to make money on this. For example, Nexta already publishes instructions on how to beat the police, how to throw a grenade, and the like.
Russia is involved into this crisis due to the Tashkent pact, so I expect the US and the EU will begin their standard dull song about Putin.
Due to the peculiarities of Kazakhstani society, these opponents of the current government will appeal to the tribalist and religious “traditional” values of the insurgent region, and will pedal the historically formed difference between the zhuzes: territory and resources (aka, rich / poor lands), social and economic role (exploiter / unfairly oppressed). There will be disputes about which religion is more ‘true’, and about which tribe has more rights to distribute wealth.
Thanks for further thoughts and posts. Ablyazov seems to come from the South not from the Mangystau region but from which “clan” is he?. Anyway thanks for your posts and for introducing me to that stark “white bone” expression, which I shall remember.
BTW you might enjoy Gary Shteyngart’s Ab$urdistan comic satire.
Not this way. You must write a religious scripture and say in it that God has appointed a certain family to rule over other families. In Judaism, these are the Cohens and Levi. In the case of Kazakhstan, it is Islam and these are the Khoja clan, they are outside the zhuzes system. Standalone.
Not sure of the US support for Ablyazov, but the EU most probably will.
“I see myself as the leader of the opposition,” Ablyazov said. “Every day the protesters call me and ask: ‘What should we do? We are standing here: What should we do?'”
He said he was ready to go to Kazakhstan to head a provisional government if the protests escalated.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-west-must-stand-up-russia-kazakhstan-dissident-former-banker-says-2022-01-07/
Tatyana
In Kurdistan, the oil deal is between USUKIS and the Pimps they keep in power to deliver the oil profits. Nothing goes to the people. From what you say , capitalist enterprises in Kazakhstan have struck the same deal, but Socialist Russia feels guilty about this wholesale privatisation.
Ironically , the Israel- backed family that pimps Kurdistan , started off as a Socialist movement, and they declared the land as state property to which members of their Party were entitled. This is Feudalism, not Socialism, but with Israeli religious affiliations for historical reasons, via The Biblical Captivity of 600 BC.
As to the Religious authority of the Khoja clan, respect for the family of the prophet once be upon him obviously does not entitle them to pimp Kazakhstan. Nor does radicalsation by the West of any other sect, sunni , sufi or shi’a entitled them to pimp Kazakhstan, so Russia’s Socialist guilt stands as referee between rival pimps, sects, ideologies and clans.
When socialism itself becomes a means of justifying pimping, where else do you go?
If salt loses its flavour, with what will you salt it? Quote from the gospels.
I see – so Ablayazov as a high ranking piece on the chess board (perhaps a rook or knight) with potential for the actual players to change colours of pieces in between games.
Sometimes one suspects that when tension is too tight in one game at one location the players prefer to play another game in another location where stakes are lower and there is more room on the board (that was probably so not only during the Cold War but the Great Game too). However, I know bugger all and don’t mean to suggest I do.
Tatyana, thank you for these perspectives, and Fwl, thank you for developing the discussion.
Tatyana, please would you critique these Wikipedia pages for me?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nexta
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ihar_Losik
Sorry, Clark, too much reading and too much checking. I cannot do it today, spending the last 2 days of school vacations with my family and also choosing my next wedding ring 🙂
Tatyana, fair enough; enjoy your family time.
Tatyana
Peace and blessings be on you , as a non – Muslim lady, giving our prophet peace and blessings be upon him the high level of respect we believe he is entitled to.
Thank you.
Excellent article.
There’s not a lot of real democracy in the USA either Mr Murray. If you look at how US Presidents are elected, it can be said with a degree of certitude that no ordinary US voter ever gets to vote for a Presidential candidate who has not been absolutely vetted and neutered by the powers that be in big business and the network of Ultra High Net Worth families who control US political systems.
Because Trump was not a sufficient puppet, he had to be ousted. Despite Biden being a corrupt grifter, he is exactly what the PTB in the USA want. Cheney was too genocidal to be officially President, so they needed a puppet to allow him to ‘remodel the Middle East’ from the shadows.
It goes without saying that the USA is the ‘greatest sham democracy in the world’ and the UK is not too far behind on that score.
If you look at the trails of blood surrounding the Clinton brand name, you would have to conclude that freedom to air dirty linen is not a concept particularly tolerated Stateside.
And if you look at how they murdered JFK and his brother, you would have to conclude that being an elected President does not allow you to represent the interests of the people…..
Exactly so, Rhys. Very nicely put. The USA has been governed through a facade of “democracy” for at least 150 years – maybe longer.
It occurred to me long ago that maybe one day the Washington folk glanced admiringly at the nazi and Soviet one-party states, and wondered how they could get away with imposing something similar. The clue lay in the absurd Soviet elections, where there was only one candidate but everyone was supposed to vote for him to show solidarity.
They thought, “Hmmmm… what if we were to have a one-party state, but pretend it’s split into two parties (just for the sake of the voters)?” Ever since US voters have been excitedly slandering the “other side” without realising that it’s all one under the surface or behind the scenes.
Gore Vidal expressed it very well 50 years ago:
“There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party… and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat. Republicans are a bit stupider, more rigid, more doctrinaire in their laissez-faire capitalism than the Democrats, who are cuter, prettier, a bit more corrupt – until recently… and more willing than the Republicans to make small adjustments when the poor, the black, the anti-imperialists get out of hand. But, essentially, there is no difference between the two parties”.
If anyone is seriously interested, they should begin by Reading Randolph Bourne’s brilliant essay “The State”. It’s a quick read given how massively important it is, and beautifully written. If you are in a hurry, the best part is right at the end where Bourne explains how – decades before 1919 when he was writing – the parties had muzzled democracy and made it perfectly safe to have elections every four years without any risk of losing control.
Rhys Jaggar and Tom Welsh, I broadly agree with both of these comments.
Note that both in the US and the UK, credible challengers were promoted by large public movements from the left; Bernie Saunders and Jeremy Corbyn. In both cases, they were defeated through convergence of interests and consequent collusion between the corporate media, the “centrist left” and the political right. In both cases this led to victory by outsiders on the right, Trump and Johnson, who both had the backing from their own parties rather than the opposition that Saunders’ and Corbyn’s parties deployed.
In both cases, leadership fell to corrupt liars who contradict facts and have little understanding of reality.
Exactly, Clark. It’s really quite like military strategy. First the selection processes for high office are steered through very narrow “pinch points” where anyone undesriable can be filtered out on some plausible grounds. Then those who run the parties, as well as the current leaders (and those being groomed for future leadership) are paid off and/or threatened (“Nice family you have… shame if anything happened to them”).
In the USA, of course, it’s very easy. All it takes is a short anonymous phone call drawing attention to what happened to the Kennedy brothers.
The only thing the UK elite wants the British public to take away from this flare up in Kazakhstan is that ‘Putin props up dictators’.
What’s suppressed is that the UK itself props up most of the world’s authoritarian, dictatorial regimes.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-03-11-britain-backs-most-of-the-worlds-repressive-regimes-new-analysis-shows/
Not least the Kazakh state, which the British Army has trained for many years to repress protest.
https://youtu.be/DpJRHFEj19o
Memory holed too is that the UK elite helped to install Putin as its preferred successor to the patsy Yeltsin back in 2000, cynically downplaying his atrocities in Chechnya.
https://declassifieduk.org/revealed-uk-ignored-chechnya-war-crimes-to-push-bps-oil-interests-as-it-worked-to-get-vladimir-putin-elected-in-2000/
To bolster the ‘we good they evil’ narrative British state media is playing Blinken on a loop warning that “once Russia is in your house it is very difficult to get them out.” No mention naturally of 1,000-odd US military bases squatting in virtually every country on earth, many of them now almost eight decades old.
Nice! Don’t they mention that your newly blessed her majesty’s knight Blair was the advisor for Nazarbaev? Or, that that knight’s brother William Blair was that same judge who imprisoned Nazarbaev’s oppositionist Ablyazov?
They know full well Sir Blair has advised multiple repressive regimes and even helped install the bogeyman Putin. It doesn’t matter. They will never stop representing him to the public as the king of anti-authoritarian western liberalism.
PS I should have mentioned of the video I posted above on the role of the British Army (and Blair and Prince Andrew) in propping up the Kazakh regime the Kazakh discussion begins at the 16min mark, incl an interview with Phil Miller of Declassified UK.