The mainstream media is, without exception, repeating the unevidenced claim from the Biden administration that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. They do this with no proper journalistic questioning or scepticism. They do this despite the fact that, in the last month, not only have we had repeated cries that invasion is “imminent”, we have had specific secret intelligence sourced claims from the Americans, that a Russian staged false flag attack was about to happen, and from the British, that there was about to be a coup in Kiev led by very minor figures. Both claims turned out to be nonsense.
Perhaps more pertinently, the media do this as though the invasion of Iraq had never happened and they had never before been misled by US and UK governments, citing intelligence sources.
Last night I watched the Press Review of today’s papers on both Sky and BBC News. They showed all of today’s front pages, all of which repeated, without qualification, the warning that Russia will invade in the next few days. The discussion, like the news output all day, took the accuracy of this as certain.
Wars are of course good for the media; wars bring news viewers and sell newspapers. They are also very good for the arms industry. Pity the poor arms manufacturers and arms dealers, who haven’t had a really full-throated NATO military action since Libya. Massacring women and children in Yemen and through drone strikes throughout Middle East and Asia is a nice little business, but nothing like as profitable as proper all out war.
It’s An Ill Wind – BAE Share Price
A BBC reporter on Radio 4 this morning stated that the USA was sending troops to the Baltic States and elsewhere in Eastern Europe “to deter Russian aggression”. What a stupid thing to say. The “aggressive” Russian forces are inside Russia. The American troops are 5,000 miles from home.
One swallow doth not a summer make; I was hopeful that this reporter’s following example might lead others to engage their brains, but that was fanciful:
It is interesting that a number of people lost their jobs for not supporting the Iraq War, both in the media and civil service. Greg Dyke lost the leadership of the BBC, because the BBC had questioned the non-existence of the Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction. David Kelly was murdered for giving them information.
But not one single person suffered any career detriment at all for supporting the Iraq War and for spreading the lying narrative of the Iraqi WMD. In the UK, Blair, Campbell and Straw are treated as gurus by the media. The journalists who now shill for war with Russia are precisely the same journalists who shilled for war with Iraq. Why would they not push fake intelligence now, when pushing fake intelligence then boosted their careers, as they enabled so many of the powerful to get richer still from war?
The UK’s “Dirty dossier” on Iraqi WMD consisted more or less entirely, where it used intelligence sources, of declassified human intelligence rather than signals intelligence. “Human intelligence” simply means something an informant told us, usually for large sums of cash. The “intelligence” on Iraqi WMD did exist – there was no shortage at all of Iraqi colonels willing to make up stories about WMD in return for briefcases full of dollars or krugerrands. What Blair and Straw did, with the practical help of fellow war criminals like Sir Richard Dearlove and Sir John Scarlett, was to ignore the filters that assess such “intelligence” for credibility, in favour of presenting the picture the government wished to show to the world to justify war.
Signals intelligence, by contrast, is communications intercept, and is generally more accurate (though of course there can be planted misleading communications). I can tell you that the NSA have shared with GCHQ no communications intelligence that indicates an imminent Russian attack. As those two deeply integrated agencies share everything, this “imminent attack” knowledge is therefore human intelligence, like the Iraq dossier. Alternatively it issimply a surmise from satellite and other monitoring of the movement of Russian assets.
Biden and Johnson both have an interest in stoking the fires of conflict to try to improve (well deserved) terrible poll ratings at home. NATO has an interest in promoting Cold War, its traditional raison d’etre. The disastrous results of NATO’s attempts to expand its role in Afghanistan and Libya have led to the organisation needing an apparent success.
For all these western political interests, they see a win-win over Ukraine, because when Putin does not invade, they can claim it is a victory and that they forced Putin to back down.
There is a real problem here. By taunting Putin with the position that Johnson and Biden will claim Putin lost if he does not invade, they are effectively daring him to invade.
This is terrible diplomacy, unless the USA and UK actually want a war – and that takes us back again to the interests of the military and security services and the arms industry.
I maintain the view that Putin is far too wily to be pushed into an invasion. If Putin really wished to escalate matters, he would be much more likely to cut gas supplies than to invade Ukraine. There are two points to make on this.
Firstly, Ukraine is said to be less dependent now on Russian gas because, rather than buy direct from Russia, it buys from third countries. But it is still Russian gas, which is being sold on by another state merely on paper. The multi-invoicing may provide some diplomatic cover and some protection against price sanction, but not against the tap being turned off.
Secondly, it is argued that if Russia cut gas to Ukraine, Ukraine could cut off transit supplies to much of the rest of Europe, reducing Russian income. But that would almost certainly happen more seriously if Putin did indeed invade Ukraine, which would almost certainly trigger Ukrainian destruction of transit infrastructure.
There remains much else Putin can do before invading. NATO’s ultra-aggressive attitude to Russia, insisting on encircling it with missile systems ever creeping closer, is unlikely to be changed in the short term. But Russia has already achieved the exodus of many NATO “trainers”, diplomats and nationals from Ukraine in the last few days.
While the West was looking the wrong way, Putin has also, with a tiny use of troops, greatly increased Russian influence in Kazakhstan, a massively resource rich country. That may well prove to be the most important diplomatic move of the year.
As for Ukraine itself, I annoyed some Putin fans when I posited that Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a pyrrhic victory for Putin. After 30 years of contention, it swung Kiev much more firmly into the Western diplomatic orbit and made the coup of 2014 irreversible, when it had been shaky.
The Minsk Agreements appear to be a very sensible way forward in Ukraine; in fact the principles embodied in the Minsk agreements appear to be essential to a settlement. They are really very simple, covering Ukraine gaining control of its borders, devolution and a high degree of autonomy for the Russian speaking areas in the East, disarmament and the withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries from Ukraine, release of prisoners and an amnesty.
The western media ignores or dismisses the Minsk agreements. But these were negotiated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, of which both the UK and the USA are members, together with Russia and Ukraine. They were lodged with the United Nations as a binding international agreement.
The First Minsk Agreement is very short:
Upon consideration and discussion of the proposals put forward by the
participants of the consultations in Minsk on 1 September 2014, the Trilateral
Contact Group, consisting of representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), reached an
understanding with respect to the need to implement the following steps:
1. Ensure the immediate bilateral cessation of the use of weapons.
2. Ensure monitoring and verification by OSCE of the regime of non-use of
weapons.
3. Implement decentralization of power, including by enacting the Law of
Ukraine on the interim status of local self-government in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Law on Special Status).
4. Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian State border and
verification by OSCE, along with the establishment of a security area in the border
regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
5. Immediately release all hostages and unlawfully detained persons.
6. Enact a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in
connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and
Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
7. Continue an inclusive national dialogue.
8. Adopt measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in
Donbass.
9. Ensure the holding of early local elections in accordance with the Law of
Ukraine on the interim status of local self-government in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Law on Special Status).
10. Remove unlawful military formations and military hardware, as well as
militants and mercenaries, from the territory of Ukraine.
11. Adopt a programme for the economic revival of Donbass and the
resumption of vital activity in the region.
12. Provide personal security guarantees for the participants of the
consultations.
The second Minsk Agreement fleshes this out a little
Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements
1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions
of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting from 00.00 AM (Kiev time) on the 15th of
February, 2015.
2. Withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides on equal distances in order to create a security
zone at least 50 km wide from each other for the artillery systems with caliber greater than
100mm and more, a security zone of 70 km wide for MLRS and 140 km wide for MLRS
“Tornado-C”, “Uragan”, “Smerch” and Tactical missile systems “Tochka” (“Tochka U”):
– for the Ukrainian troops: from the de facto line of contact;
– for the armed formations from certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblast of Ukraine
from the line of contact according to the Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014.
The withdrawal of the heavy weapons as specified above is to start on day 2 of the ceasefire at
the latest and to be completed within 14 days.
The process shall be facilitated by the OSCE and supported by the Trilateral Contact Group.
3. Ensure effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire regime and the withdrawal of
heavy weapons by the OSCE from the day 1 of the withdrawal, using all technical equipment
necessary, including satellites, drones, radar equipment, etc.
4. Launch a dialogue, on day 1 of the withdrawal on modalities of local elections in accordance
with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On interim local self-government order in
certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions” as well as on the future regime of these
areas based on this Law.
Adopt promptly, by no later than 30 days after the date of signing of the document a
resolution of the Parliament of Ukraine specifying the area enjoying the special regime, under
the Law of Ukraine On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and
Lugansk regions”, based on the line of the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014.
5. Ensure pardon and amnesty by enacting the law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment
of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and
Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
6. Ensure release and exchange of all hostages and unlawfully detained persons, based on the
principle “all for all”. This process is to be finished on the day 5 after the withdrawal at the
latest.
7. Ensure safe access, delivery, storage, and distribution of humanitarian assistance to those in
need, on the basis of an international mechanism.
8. Definition of modalities of full resumption of socio-economic ties, including social transfers,
such as pension, payments and other payments (incomes and revenues, timely payments of all
utility bills, reinstating taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine).
To this end, Ukraine shall reinstate control of the segment of its banking system in the conflict
affected areas and possibly an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers shall be
established.
9. Reinstatement of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine throughout the
conflict area, starting on day 1 after the local elections and ending after the comprehensive
political settlement (local elections in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions on the
basis of the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) to be finalized by the end of 2015,
provided that paragraph 11 has been implemented in consultation with and upon agreement
by representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the framework of
the Trilateral Contact Group.
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from
the territory of Ukraine under monitoring of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
11. Carrying out constitutional reform in Ukraine with a new Constitution entering into force by
the end of 2015, providing for decentralization as a key element (including a reference to the
specificities of certain areas in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with the
representatives of these areas), as well as adopting permanent legislation on the special status
of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in line with measures as set out in the
footnote until the end of 2015
12. Based on the Law of Ukraine “On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Lugansk regions”, questions related to local elections will be discussed and
agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the
framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant
OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of
working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will
reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
The Minsk Agreements were endorsed by the UN Security Council. The UK and USA are therefore obliged in law to support them. Yet they have abandoned them in favour of the highly intransigent position of the government of Ukraine in refusing to accept any devolution to administrations in Eastern Ukraine. Instead the Ukrainian government insists on on a highly centralised Ukrainian nationalist state.
I choked on my tea two days ago when a BBC correspondent reported that Ukraine could never implement the Minsk Agreements, because it could result in some pro-Putin MPs being elected to the Ukrainian parliament from the Eastern areas. Remember that when they tell you they are starting a war for democracy.
Western warmongering is always disgusting, but still the more so when it involves abandonment of an entirely sensible framework for peace which they themselves initiated. The press and politicians all want a war. We have been here before, and we know that neither the people nor the truth can stop them.
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Atlantic council shill spread moronic conspiracy theories
“Putin has big weekend plans in Ukraine: 1) he’s going to cut power and heat, knock out Ukrainian navy and air force, kill general staff and hit them with cyber attack; 2) then install pro-Russian president and 3) resort to full-scale military invasion if Ukraine doesn’t give in”
https://twitter.com/melindaharing/status/1492218334783447041
Now we shall see if that occur, lets check in on monday…when this shill will come up with another date.
I mean how do one even come up with this precise bs stuff? It is just absurd. And the same clientele have been cocksure about an invasion for the past 3 months (or even years!). Every day a new theory is presented, talk about disinformation!
Obviously though, especially the U.S. trying to provoke Russia to do something stupid, but I believe the main threat of war comes from Ukraine trying to wage a war against Donbas and against the ethnic russians living there. Now the ukranian government have weaponry and backing from the west to do that and any counteraction by Russia would be framed as a threat for a world war.
Remember also that what see now would not occur under Donald Trump, as soon he was voted out, the warmongering party came in.
As I understand events – someone wants Putin to prove that he will not invade.
How does one prove a negative?
It seems to me that there is an urgent need for serious diplomacy which should lead to agreement and resolution.
Trust that a cost/benefit analysis will convince all sides that it is a situation of ‘no win’ for all with a war.
Thank you Craig, for a sensible discussion of the issue and the enormous quantities of flying fertilizer. I particularly appreciate the citations from Minsk I and II. Another set of treaties abandoned by the West the instant they ceased to be expedient. Putin is not idiotic enough to repeat the Afghan experiment for Western benefit. He has, as you note, much better options – including selling all that European gas to China.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s press release was like a comedy sketch, the Russians are going to invade, we don’t know when but all the pieces are in place, we can’t pinpoint a day or the hour but its a very distinct possibility. We continue to see Russian troops in their own country, (Ukraine Border) we continue to see Russian escalation.
Russia could invade at any minute should Putin order it, it time for you to leave now…we’re not saying a decision has been taken by Putin to invade.
What a convoluted and twisted press release, designed entirely to frighten civilians and demonise Russia, Hitchens Razors should be applied here, that which is presented without evidence should also be dismissed without evidence.
The 51st state the UK has instructed its FCO to tell UK nationals to leave Ukraine whilst domestic flights are available, if anything reading between the lines its the US and the UK that’s most likely to start a war in Ukraine not Russia
Just waiting for Keir Starmer to push for Stop the war coalition to be proscribed as a terrorist organisation to continue his increasingly insane attacks on Corbyn.
Apt comment, Andy. I mean when he stated the Stop the War coalition were “giving succour to authoritarian leaders who directly threaten NATO”, he’s basically accusing the coalition, and Jeremy Corbyn, of treason. So what you have suggested must be the next logical step for this shill for NATO aggression and bellicose posturing. I contribute to a web page where Starmer is called Stürmer, which is fair to him, if not to today’s Germans.
The press and politicians all want a war.
Then I guess it will be a war they shall have and a war they shall lose…..again
Using a trumpism, why would Russia want to invade a sh1thole country like the Ukraine ? They have the bit they wanted, the Crimea, and they’ll protect the Russian speaking population in the east, but the rest is a liability.
Putin has more nous in his little finger than the Western warmaking scum. Let’s see what provocation they come up with over the next seven days.
Obviously Putin doesn’t want to invade Ukraine – Russia is not short of land, if anything he just wants more emigration out of Ukraine to supply Russia with qualified people. The EU would like the same – only they get cleaners and the qualified staff go to Russia. Possible a quarter of Ukraine’s population has left the sinking ship.
What Russia might do is to destroy the Romanian missile base. Should Biden discuss this option? Can they promise to defend it with missile defence?
Everything suggests that they cannot defend it. Russian (manoeuvrable) hypersonic missiles are too good, and US defence missiles have repeatedly failed (Houthi missiles are copies of copies of copies of 1950’s designs and still hit Saudi targets protected by Patriot systems).
In which case what can US do?
1. Never mention the missile threat (even though this is at heart a Russia/Nato in Romania missile crisis).
2. If it happens far better to claim how unexpected it was, and a lucky hit on an unprepared base which er was always aimed at defending from Iran and never at Russia.
That is a far better explanation of why Biden screams invasion that the silly idea it might be true.
Michael Dory. Exactly, they built missile bases in East Europe aimed at Russia, while claiming they were there to counter Iran and North Korea !
Interesting, isn’t it? Establishment liberals spend all day telling you Boris Johnson is a congenital liar on domestic issues. But when it comes to Russia, any suggestion he is lying or hyping the threat is incomprehensible and reprehensible.
Matt Fry speaking to Tory Tobias Elwood. Elwood wants UK forces in Ukraine. AFAIK Ukraine currently is in a state of civil war. West vs East. Fry did not mention any civil war. How can you have an informed debate/ conversation about war in Ukraine without mentioniong the civil war and glossing over Minsk.
I’m not sure that Elwood has proven himself to be a military genius any time recently.
I don’t want Tobias Elwood in Parliament any more than I want UK Forces in Ukraine….
Putin has proven capability and wilingness to use false flag operations as a pretext and preparation for invasion, and Crimea is the proof. The buildup of troops on the order is consistent with an immminent invasion, as are the warnings of the US and UK governments to their citizens to flee while it’s possible. I don’t often always with tabloid headlines, but the Daily Mirror put it nicely.
I say to any Westerner reading this in Ukraine: listen to your government’s warnings to its own citizens. Don’t wait for the Russian bombs! Get out NOW, while you still can!
I gather from the capitalist press that Latvia, Germany, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan and Saudi Arabia have now urged their citizens to leave Ukraine.
“use false flag operations as a pretext and preparation for invasion, and Crimea is the proof” WRONG.
Check your facts (Clue not the MSM).
It’s a pity you are so gullible. Everything about the US and the UK’s shrill hysteria shrieks Iraq propaganda series 1, episode 3 (episode 2 was Libya) If anyone is going to conduct a false flag operation it will be Ukraine on the Donbass border. It’s beyond reason that the US only just retreating in disarray from Afghanistan should be stirring up conflict in Europe with Russia. They are insane, the UK is insane, Boris is insane, Starmer is insane. Only Macron so far has shown some sense of reality, the delusion doesn’t seem to have quite overwhelmed him yet. Here we are, Covid, the world economy on the precipice, the planet cooking and nature on its last legs, and we’re looking to enjoy another round of conflict courtesy of the US and its lackeys?? Actually, we’re all insane.
“We” are not all insane. I really dislike it when commenters on national politics identify with governments as though they were members of that government and were actually performing the actions of those governments. The U.S. government is insane. The UK government, as a U.S. lackey, is insane. But “we” the citizens are not insane unless of course we support the insanity of those two governments. That WOULD BE insane.
Isn’t it episode 4? Episode 3, Syria, is still on-going of course.
JM,
Macron? The Moron who was manouvered into his post the deliver what Sarkozy failed to? The new sun king, who was to topple the ‘ever closer’ EU from inside and make another attempt at invading Russia for the Ancient Great Gamers???
The utterly demented little shite who refused a Covid test prior to meeting Putin and ended up not only not shaking hands but sat 12 feet apart from him trying to be ‘friends’ whilst suggesting Putin/Russia might want to steal his DNA and prove that he isn’t really a Romanov who should be the Emperor of all Europe and Asia?
Is that the micron moron Macron you think is sensible ?
The GJ’s will have launched him with a boot mark on his arse – he is toast.
What’s this character assassination of Macron about? A stack of personal insults unrelated to the point at hand, most of which appear to concern his height.
Maybe that’s your main problem, you hate half the population who are less than average height? Do you have problems with skin tone, baldness, eye colour and other unchosen body features? This sort of idiotic prejudice really diminishes any genuine points you might want to make.
The fact is that Macron is actually trying to prevent war, while our governments are stoking it. Your silly prejudices notwithstanding.
The only elected leader in Europe who is going to settle this peacefully is Stoltz. That will be on the 20th. The nato tossers know it’s all over bar the madness of the Banderists, who are now a great liability while left alive.
Macron is a banker. Just look at his whole biography and fast tracked trajectory. His extremely weird personal life and his ego that required a new party based on his initials. How he was drummed into popularity by the liberal and financial media.
And of course all the btl trolls who have been managing his narrative since the day he rose like a Sun.
One of the reasons why I fell out with the Groaniad some years back.
Macron is of course only pretending to be an honest broker but is the classic worm tongue.
That you and many ‘liberals’ fail to see beyond his propaganda is the main problem we have. Has been ever since NuLabInc and Bambi came to power and immediately doubled down on Thatchers work and caused 20 years of death and millions of displaced because of plain lies – I bet you may even believe Blair was the best PM in your lifetime as many idiots still do.
Your judgement is very questionable. Your chief criticisms of Macron appear to be more concerned with his physical characteristics than his policies. And your assumption that I, personally, am a fan of Blair shows your lazy assumptions to be so wide of the mark, it is difficult to take anything you say seriously.
Glen I have given you some pointers on why Macron is just another puppet. I haven’t even started on his dick waving and humiliation in the remain African French imperial leftovers – how Wagner are handing the Foreign legionnaires and the western PMC’s their pampered bottoms daily.
Or how they are still screwing over Haiti with all their NGO buddies from the Imperium.
But you and your ilk have developed your mo to pick on a passing pun to ignore the big real scary stuff. And you MAY even be a Blairite by supporting any amount of their ‘successes’ or do you believe that all their deeds were shit and need to be reversed?
This may help you understand my feelings towards Blair. Sorry the format is terrible, and most of the links no longer work – it was formatted for a now defunct US publication. But you should be able to get the idea :
https://glennbarder.livejournal.com/3564.html
As for being a fan of Macron, vous n’obtenez aucun point once again. Your silly comments about a man’s height says a lot more about you than it does about them. But I point this out to you, and that has you calling me a Blairite. Perhaps you’re just not the sort of person that can admit to getting anything wrong?
Thanks for that Glenn I see you are not a Blairite or a believer of their great works – a simple statement would have sufficed.
Nice writing by the way from the noughties I’ll try and read the others there too.
Given that you saw through that lot back then – I pretty much got very queasy feelings when they combined the Britpop and Peoples Princess stories and was completely cured of any illusions as the 45-minute warning and sexed-up dossier was fabricated pre Iraq. It would have been sooner without the great mindfuck of the twin towers and the fantastical super villain OBL.
Given you saw through them I suggest you should also see that Macron and his cotterie and media runners are not so different to the Blairites. Here is the latest on the petite Prince as he bends the rules ahead of the election to help you:
https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/13/france-rivals-claim-foul-play-as-macron-waits-to-declare-presidential-candidacy
Unfortunarely Macron has acquired serious messianic tendencies and currently seems to be hell-bent on destroying the very essence of French society but also very keen to crown himself Emperor à la Napoleon.
Putin false flag???!!!
The US backed racist coup in Ukraine drove the majority Russian Crimea into the arms of Putin. Putin needed to do nothing but allow the Crimeans to vote and finally escape the neonazi racists, something the Crimeans had wanted to do since Ukraine formed as a country. The Donbass wasn’t so lucky.
In any case, the vast majority of Crimeans got what they had wanted for 25 years. Minus Donbass, the rest of the Ukraine got a perverted version of US democracy laced with poverty and misery.
Either this is satire or you’re losing the plot.
All the grandstanding with visits to Ukraine, and now everybody is poised ready to say how they strong-armed Russia into aborting the invasion. It’s clearly a distraction, but from what? It can’t just be the French Government announcing another round of building nuclear power stations at enormous expense. Is it simply Biden and Johnson trying to save their own skins?
Great post. Two minor corrections in paragraph 20:
‘Ukraine’ should read ‘Crimea’; ‘2013’ should read ‘2014’
Thanks, corrected
Everyone’s got tanks on the brain. What could have caused that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
These days the Beeb have a ‘Reality Check Correspondent’ who’s actually called Chris Morris.
Our generous host’s comment originally had the typo ‘tanks’, but he must have corrected it whilst I was re-watching The Day Today clip – if that makes sense.
Your point that the claims “turned out to be nonsense” requires a premise that someone calling out a false flag operation in advance won’t affect the plan. You are not going to then do it – because a false flag operation in everybody’s newspaper before it happens won’t convince anybody.
“Some bright pink aliens are going to secretly invade my house tomorrow. But now they won’t dare to because I have outed them here.”
That is your logic.
It isn’t, because I’m not saying there was a false flag operation – I simply don’t know. It’s on a completely different level of plausibility though, given the history in Crimea and so on, than bright pink aliens.
You don’t know either, but have decided that there wasn’t going to be one based on your prejudices – because your reasoning doesn’t make sense.
But there is zero evidence of a false flag other than the mutterings of US State Dept. officials citing ‘intelligence’. If there were evidence it would be on the front of every tabloid in the UK and US.
Top drawer journalism Craig.
Pity some in Scotland can’t, or won’t, see you as one of the very best journalists of our times.
But we all know why that is.
Remember the Maine!
“imminent Russian invasion” smells an awful lot like “imminent Iran Nuke Weapons”
Reading the “debate” at the UNSC meeting that endorsed the Minsk agreements linked to in the article is bemusing. All agreeeing that the Minsk agreements are the way forwards but at each other’s throats at the same time. The contributions from Lithuania and the Russian replies are illuminating.
The russians want local elections immediately in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and the Ukranians want sovereignty returned to them before elections take place. Reminds me similar of impasses in other negotiations such as the Northern Ireland peace process. I guess there has to be a willingness to get past such impasses which clearly isn’t present right now.
A few typos in the piece:
The UK’s “Dirty dossier” on Iraqi WMD consisted where it used intelligencesources…..
Alternatively it issimply a surmise from satellite…..
But that would almost certainly happen more seriously if Putin did indeed (invade?) Ukraine,
Thanks
We may not be able to stop them, nor may the truth, Mr Murray, but when was the last time that this bunch of draft-evading buffoons went to war with a major nuclear power, an adversary with large arsenals of hypersonic missiles and with conventional forces that could obliterate any Ukrainian forces in rather less time than the length of Lent?
It beggars belief that any of them could possibly want a nuclear war, but there does come a point when about five distinct personalities must be asked that question in both the UK and the USA.
In the UK:
1. Boris Johnson.
2. Mark Sedwill.
3. Keir Starmer.
4. Richard Moore (head of MI6).
5. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin (Chief of the Defence Staff).
If a single one of them says they want a nuclear war, then they must he hauled off immediately to a secure unit for the mentally unhinged.
If they all say that they don’t, then they had better have convincing arguments as to why they are not walking into one and accept that their careers are over if their arguments do not overwhelmingly pass the litmus test of credibility…..
I don’t think Putin is bluffing when he says that he will target the true source of war adversaries. He knows that Ukraine is a puppet state of the US and he knows that the UK is the yap-dog-in-chief for bellicose and belligerent US sabre rattling. He has no intention of wiping out ethnic Russians in Ukraine but is far more sanguine about wiping out ethnic non-Russians overseas.
Of all the places most likely to be targeted by Russia if war were truly to break out, London is probably close to being top of the list.
Why Boris Johnson can’t see that is beyond me.
And why Sir Tony Radakin hasn’t called his bluff is equally ridiculous.
I just wish that the world would put up in lights the names of the shady groupings that plot for decades for global hegemony and install pliant puppets in Washington and London. Wiping that lot out truly would represent ‘acceptable collateral damage’. I don’t care how rich and powerful they are, they are utterly worthless inhuman scum who deserve no rights to legal due process, nor the right to mercy.
If we have to choose who to kill in 2022, I nominate that bunch of psychopathic scum that never stand for office but always agitate for war.
Dear Mr Putin,
Can I please suggest the following as proposed targets within the UK:
> Menwith Hill in North Yorkshire, a US NSA surveillance facility;
> Fairford in Gloucestershire, a US bomber base;
> Croughton in Northamptonshire, a CIA base.
These targets provide the double benefit of hitting the US and UK at the same time.
https://declassifieduk.org/deceitful-activities-us-expands-its-intelligence-and-military-presence-in-uk/
Ha ha ha ha ha.
You forgot Faslane … or is that too ‘big’ a target?
Russia must be wondering what if anything it got for its investments in Conservatives.
Boris says a few anti-Russian things. Truss appears like a puppet from Thunderbirds (but a new one – she’s not Lady Penelope), who presumably bemuses Lavrov and co.
Have a vague feeling Boris is not an all enthusiast for a crazy war. Yes he thinks he’s Churchillian, but he’s friendly with Standard proprietor and is perhaps partly of the Trump school of laid back foreign policy. The very enthusiastic media blitz on his lockdown partying shenanigans (whilst obviously justified) makes me wonder (because media does not always vigorously pursue just causes) if he’s considered to be a potential hurdle to military adventures.
Russia did not invest in the Conservative party. Some Russian oligarchs did. Most likely the ones who hate Putin for trying to gain control over the oligarchs, after the shock therapy that Russia experienced which massively hurt the common person in Russia.
London is the sanctuary of dodgy Russian oligarchs that fled Russia, as Putin tried to reign in their excess and wealth.
Exactly. The childish comments that “Russia aided the Tories” is a weak attempt at distracting from what actually happened. London remains the corruption capital of the world. Ask any Italian Mafia boss – they’ve been saying this for decades. ALL this tax-free “Overseas territories” and the massive corruption in the arms industry should be now have awoken people up to the reality of UK politics (of whichever color you choose).
But NO, Bake off, Eastenders, BGT etc. has so dumbed down much of the population, almost 40% would STILL vote Tory if there was an election tomorrow. Putin may be a bad person, but he’s not an idiot. He doesn’t need to invade anyone and if there IS some “black Flag” operation, I am more likely to suspect USA/UK interference than the Russians.
All expert analysis suggests the negatives in invading/occupying Ukraine far outweigh any perceived positives for Russia. They hold all the aces right now. Ukraine has terrible problems and Maidan seems a long time ago. Yet according to the UK/US, an invasion is inevitable. Why? Because,we’re told it’s inevitable.
The media who brought us illustrated mock-ups of Saddam’s drones flying over UK cities depositing their bio-weapons; bio-weapons made in illustrated mock-ups of mobile truck- based bio-labs, and ’45 minutes from destruction’ warnings,that same credulous media,are now pushing this unfiltered invasion talk as if the gospel truth.
Meanwhile, back on planet earth, Russia insist they merely want mutual respect in their dealings with the West(NATO). Oh, and the Minsk agreement fully implemented. The Russian forces in the East are they say, there to prevent Kyiv attacking Donbas, and carrying out ethnic cleansing, aided in that by their recently acquired western weaponry, which is flooding into the country and no doubt the hands of neo-Nazis. The Russian military exercises in Belarus were planned in advance.
Even if there is some provocation against Russian forces, or attack on Crimean infrastructure. I don’t think Russia’s response will be to charge, all guns blazing to Kyiv. I’m wondering if at some point, if/when it never happens US/UK and NATO will claim it was inevitable at one point, but they prevented it by talking so tough?
Thinking of the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox, how many alien planetary civilizations have become dust because they threw up a NATO? I guess we narrowly missed joining them during Able Archer and on numerous other occasions. I suppose the moronic minds who came up with early game theory could not empathise with people of nations ringed by the indiscriminate weapons of belligerent foes, like when the USA sited short-range nuclear weapons in Turkey.
Yes I don’t see the benefits for Russia in invading. I would think for such a drastic eventuality the benefits should be large and obvious.
When the first talk of the Russian build up came out, I wondered whether it was a reaction to an unreported build up and preparation of the Ukrainian forces – after all the Ukrainian government is likely under long term pressure from the Americans to take back the Donetsk & Lugansk republics.
Saying that, even some of the Russian media seems a bit inexplicable and pointing towards war. The warmongering suits all parties – Biden’s, Boris’ & Putin’s domestic policy and distraction from poor economics & dissatisfaction with the last 2 year of mostly arbitrary restrictions on liberties.
I really hope there won’t be war, but sometimes our governments do tell a truth. The Russians are not some kind of moral force of good standing up to the Evil Empire, and this is a trap that those who are critical of our governments in the West can easily fall into. At the same time not everything is done on transactional considerations, it may not make much sense for Russia to invade but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
Has this focal point been in some way concocted to replace the vacuum left by Covid in the minds of those glued to their TVs & BBC news at 10?
“I choked on my tea two days ago when a BBC correspondent reported that Ukraine could never implement the Minsk Agreements, because it could result in some pro-Putin MPs being elected to the Ukrainian parliament from the Eastern areas.”
“They’ve got to be protected,
All their rights respected,
Until someone we like can get elected..”
— Tom Lehrer,”Send the Marines” (1965)
“But first of all, send the Marines!”
The modern day equivalent being sanctions, to starve innocent ordinary people into submission, as is happening today in Afghanistan.
This is getting ridiculous
What a Twist! Ukraine’s President Demands Proof That Russia is Planning to Invade
https://sputniknews.com/20220212/what-a-twist-ukraines-president-demands-proof-that-russia-is-planning-to-invade-1092970024.html
What on earth is US/Nato up to? Not even sharing the alleged invasion plot with the nation that is about to be invaded!
nato keeps jumping the shark, over and over.
Half expecting a ‘Countdown to Invasion’ clock to go live on Sky News and the Guardian’s homepage any moment.
If nothing happens, and Russian forces leave Belarus on the 20th as planned when exercises end, we’ll be told it was all due to one high value source and we set too much store by information provided by said source. Moreover, future lessons will be learned, etc, etc, … Well, until next time.
You know I can’t help wondering if it’s just about Biden’s mid terms and Boris’s party stupidity. They’re trying to keep us busy in the knowledge that Presidents and Prime Ministers fair better with the public when there’s a perceived threat of war.
This would also explain why Starmer is getting in on the act. In Which case why would they tell Ukraine if it’s just a western PR campaign.
Jack it was the idiot President of the Ukraine – Zelensky – who first stated the ‘invasion’ date for Russia to invade Ukraine was 16022022. However this had the disastrous consequence of there being a ‘run’ on oil minerals and defence industries on the USA stock exchange causing havoc in the financial markets. Zelensky then said he was “speaking in irony”. So, there u have it: War is just predicated on an ironic reference. What a fucking shit show!
NATO was formed to defend against the Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc. The fact that it wasn’t disbanded after the fall of communism is a textbook example of the impossibility of getting rid of intrusive state and governmental bodies once they’re created. If NATO had been scrapped, it wouldn’t have spent the last thirty years looking for wars to fight, expanding up to the Russian border and generally being a threat to Moscow.
Trump and Biden have different views on China, the US’ main rival. Trump challenged China openly and directly but US Democrats have massive trading interests with China, and exported millions of American jobs to the Far East. Biden is attacking China from the back. By frustrating China’s ambitions to build its rail and road infrastructure all the way to Europe, the Democrats hope that their trading assets will not suffer.
The war in Syria has only one justification because Syrian Islam is miles better than the Islam of her main proxy IS.
… Islamist attackers’ sick parody of Islam. So no religious justification for the war on Syria. Syria is useful only for its access to the sea, as are the Ukraine and Libya and Yemen. Biden’s pit bulls want to close off all possible sea ports to the west for the central land mass of Asia, ie Russia and China.
That the US put Libya back into the stone age by directly employing vicious Islamists as proxies means that they have many degrees of minus credibility on the world stage. Add to that 11 years of destruction in Syria , countless years in Yemen, and Biden’s present sabre rattling in Ukraine, and what you have is a completely morally defunct West.
Soo annoying for USUKIS that the only weapon they have left in their struggle for hegemony is their prostitute MSM. They know that the majority of the population of their countries are implacably opposed to the mafia that run them. So maybe it’s worth doing the sabre rattling just for populist nationalistic purposes, knowing full well that Putin and Xi have the upper hand.
Biden explained quite a bit when he said that Americans and Russians don’t shoot at each other. In other words they use proxy actors. If Russia step into Ukraine the US is not going to pitch in. It will presumably take out the new pipeline. Is that a threat or an objective? BTW interesting piece in FT today about Russian community of Odessa.
The US has the Maidan revolution it inspired and supported to protect, so whipping up nationalist fervour in Ukraine probably suits that aim.
Minsk is bad news for the US and Ukrainian ultra-nationalists, for without big bad Russia to define themselves against, what is their political selling point to ordinary impoverished Ukrainians? It’s worth remembering Zelensky was elected to bring peace, not war.
Ukraine’s great tragedy is in becoming a proxy and plaything of US Neocons, wooed by promises of EU and NATO membership dangled before therm like glittering prizes. The reality is, neither the EU nor NATO would accept Ukraine in the divided state it’s in today. Its political system is too fragile with actual fascists waiting in the wings, and its ethnic tensions and divisions too volatile.
I wish the very best for the people of Ukraine, but fear the country’s leadership is incredibly misguided. It needs good relations with Russia and Western Europe in the future.
Before 1972 Dollar was backed by gold. After 1972 when paper became just paper what replaced gold in creating necessary trust in Dollar (given that thereafter it could just be printed and thereby devalued). Was it (a) oil being traded in Dollars (b)US military and economic dominance (c) no alternative due to international financial architecture or (d) something else? And of these how important is (a) oil being traded in Dollars?
There are 8 US and 1 British military bases in Ukraine. They sit there for years, finding different pretext to justify their presence (which Ukrainian law forbids) – either saying they are instructors, helpers, temporary personnel, or simply getting Ukrainian passports, et voila, they are Ukrainian citizens, too.
My guess is that the latest invasion hoax is about justifying military bases, when Russia demands Nato to withdraw away from our borders.
Mr.Murray, if it’s possible to copy my 2 comments from the previous topic? Must be much more relevant here. They are on Minsk agreement, on yesterday’s Normandy meeting.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/02/how-the-establishment-functions-the-real-dark-web/comment-page-2/#comment-1008975
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/02/how-the-establishment-functions-the-real-dark-web/comment-page-2/#comment-1008984
Yes this hoax has boosted Ukraine in terms of support and massive arms deals:
“Ukraine has received more than a billion dollars in economic aid, as well as guns, ammunition and other military assistance from the West in recent months, Kiev’s top diplomat has announced, adding that he believes the support has forestalled a potential Russian invasion.”
Ukraine reveals scale of Western military aid: Kiev’s foreign minister has claimed support from overseas is helping to deter aggression from Moscow (7 Feb 2022) – RT News