The mainstream media is, without exception, repeating the unevidenced claim from the Biden administration that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. They do this with no proper journalistic questioning or scepticism. They do this despite the fact that, in the last month, not only have we had repeated cries that invasion is “imminent”, we have had specific secret intelligence sourced claims from the Americans, that a Russian staged false flag attack was about to happen, and from the British, that there was about to be a coup in Kiev led by very minor figures. Both claims turned out to be nonsense.
Perhaps more pertinently, the media do this as though the invasion of Iraq had never happened and they had never before been misled by US and UK governments, citing intelligence sources.
Last night I watched the Press Review of today’s papers on both Sky and BBC News. They showed all of today’s front pages, all of which repeated, without qualification, the warning that Russia will invade in the next few days. The discussion, like the news output all day, took the accuracy of this as certain.
Wars are of course good for the media; wars bring news viewers and sell newspapers. They are also very good for the arms industry. Pity the poor arms manufacturers and arms dealers, who haven’t had a really full-throated NATO military action since Libya. Massacring women and children in Yemen and through drone strikes throughout Middle East and Asia is a nice little business, but nothing like as profitable as proper all out war.
It’s An Ill Wind – BAE Share Price
A BBC reporter on Radio 4 this morning stated that the USA was sending troops to the Baltic States and elsewhere in Eastern Europe “to deter Russian aggression”. What a stupid thing to say. The “aggressive” Russian forces are inside Russia. The American troops are 5,000 miles from home.
One swallow doth not a summer make; I was hopeful that this reporter’s following example might lead others to engage their brains, but that was fanciful:
It is interesting that a number of people lost their jobs for not supporting the Iraq War, both in the media and civil service. Greg Dyke lost the leadership of the BBC, because the BBC had questioned the non-existence of the Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction. David Kelly was murdered for giving them information.
But not one single person suffered any career detriment at all for supporting the Iraq War and for spreading the lying narrative of the Iraqi WMD. In the UK, Blair, Campbell and Straw are treated as gurus by the media. The journalists who now shill for war with Russia are precisely the same journalists who shilled for war with Iraq. Why would they not push fake intelligence now, when pushing fake intelligence then boosted their careers, as they enabled so many of the powerful to get richer still from war?
The UK’s “Dirty dossier” on Iraqi WMD consisted more or less entirely, where it used intelligence sources, of declassified human intelligence rather than signals intelligence. “Human intelligence” simply means something an informant told us, usually for large sums of cash. The “intelligence” on Iraqi WMD did exist – there was no shortage at all of Iraqi colonels willing to make up stories about WMD in return for briefcases full of dollars or krugerrands. What Blair and Straw did, with the practical help of fellow war criminals like Sir Richard Dearlove and Sir John Scarlett, was to ignore the filters that assess such “intelligence” for credibility, in favour of presenting the picture the government wished to show to the world to justify war.
Signals intelligence, by contrast, is communications intercept, and is generally more accurate (though of course there can be planted misleading communications). I can tell you that the NSA have shared with GCHQ no communications intelligence that indicates an imminent Russian attack. As those two deeply integrated agencies share everything, this “imminent attack” knowledge is therefore human intelligence, like the Iraq dossier. Alternatively it issimply a surmise from satellite and other monitoring of the movement of Russian assets.
Biden and Johnson both have an interest in stoking the fires of conflict to try to improve (well deserved) terrible poll ratings at home. NATO has an interest in promoting Cold War, its traditional raison d’etre. The disastrous results of NATO’s attempts to expand its role in Afghanistan and Libya have led to the organisation needing an apparent success.
For all these western political interests, they see a win-win over Ukraine, because when Putin does not invade, they can claim it is a victory and that they forced Putin to back down.
There is a real problem here. By taunting Putin with the position that Johnson and Biden will claim Putin lost if he does not invade, they are effectively daring him to invade.
This is terrible diplomacy, unless the USA and UK actually want a war – and that takes us back again to the interests of the military and security services and the arms industry.
I maintain the view that Putin is far too wily to be pushed into an invasion. If Putin really wished to escalate matters, he would be much more likely to cut gas supplies than to invade Ukraine. There are two points to make on this.
Firstly, Ukraine is said to be less dependent now on Russian gas because, rather than buy direct from Russia, it buys from third countries. But it is still Russian gas, which is being sold on by another state merely on paper. The multi-invoicing may provide some diplomatic cover and some protection against price sanction, but not against the tap being turned off.
Secondly, it is argued that if Russia cut gas to Ukraine, Ukraine could cut off transit supplies to much of the rest of Europe, reducing Russian income. But that would almost certainly happen more seriously if Putin did indeed invade Ukraine, which would almost certainly trigger Ukrainian destruction of transit infrastructure.
There remains much else Putin can do before invading. NATO’s ultra-aggressive attitude to Russia, insisting on encircling it with missile systems ever creeping closer, is unlikely to be changed in the short term. But Russia has already achieved the exodus of many NATO “trainers”, diplomats and nationals from Ukraine in the last few days.
While the West was looking the wrong way, Putin has also, with a tiny use of troops, greatly increased Russian influence in Kazakhstan, a massively resource rich country. That may well prove to be the most important diplomatic move of the year.
As for Ukraine itself, I annoyed some Putin fans when I posited that Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a pyrrhic victory for Putin. After 30 years of contention, it swung Kiev much more firmly into the Western diplomatic orbit and made the coup of 2014 irreversible, when it had been shaky.
The Minsk Agreements appear to be a very sensible way forward in Ukraine; in fact the principles embodied in the Minsk agreements appear to be essential to a settlement. They are really very simple, covering Ukraine gaining control of its borders, devolution and a high degree of autonomy for the Russian speaking areas in the East, disarmament and the withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries from Ukraine, release of prisoners and an amnesty.
The western media ignores or dismisses the Minsk agreements. But these were negotiated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, of which both the UK and the USA are members, together with Russia and Ukraine. They were lodged with the United Nations as a binding international agreement.
The First Minsk Agreement is very short:
Upon consideration and discussion of the proposals put forward by the
participants of the consultations in Minsk on 1 September 2014, the Trilateral
Contact Group, consisting of representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), reached an
understanding with respect to the need to implement the following steps:
1. Ensure the immediate bilateral cessation of the use of weapons.
2. Ensure monitoring and verification by OSCE of the regime of non-use of
weapons.
3. Implement decentralization of power, including by enacting the Law of
Ukraine on the interim status of local self-government in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Law on Special Status).
4. Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian State border and
verification by OSCE, along with the establishment of a security area in the border
regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
5. Immediately release all hostages and unlawfully detained persons.
6. Enact a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in
connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and
Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
7. Continue an inclusive national dialogue.
8. Adopt measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in
Donbass.
9. Ensure the holding of early local elections in accordance with the Law of
Ukraine on the interim status of local self-government in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Law on Special Status).
10. Remove unlawful military formations and military hardware, as well as
militants and mercenaries, from the territory of Ukraine.
11. Adopt a programme for the economic revival of Donbass and the
resumption of vital activity in the region.
12. Provide personal security guarantees for the participants of the
consultations.
The second Minsk Agreement fleshes this out a little
Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements
1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions
of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting from 00.00 AM (Kiev time) on the 15th of
February, 2015.
2. Withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides on equal distances in order to create a security
zone at least 50 km wide from each other for the artillery systems with caliber greater than
100mm and more, a security zone of 70 km wide for MLRS and 140 km wide for MLRS
“Tornado-C”, “Uragan”, “Smerch” and Tactical missile systems “Tochka” (“Tochka U”):
– for the Ukrainian troops: from the de facto line of contact;
– for the armed formations from certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblast of Ukraine
from the line of contact according to the Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014.
The withdrawal of the heavy weapons as specified above is to start on day 2 of the ceasefire at
the latest and to be completed within 14 days.
The process shall be facilitated by the OSCE and supported by the Trilateral Contact Group.
3. Ensure effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire regime and the withdrawal of
heavy weapons by the OSCE from the day 1 of the withdrawal, using all technical equipment
necessary, including satellites, drones, radar equipment, etc.
4. Launch a dialogue, on day 1 of the withdrawal on modalities of local elections in accordance
with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On interim local self-government order in
certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions” as well as on the future regime of these
areas based on this Law.
Adopt promptly, by no later than 30 days after the date of signing of the document a
resolution of the Parliament of Ukraine specifying the area enjoying the special regime, under
the Law of Ukraine On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and
Lugansk regions”, based on the line of the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014.
5. Ensure pardon and amnesty by enacting the law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment
of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and
Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
6. Ensure release and exchange of all hostages and unlawfully detained persons, based on the
principle “all for all”. This process is to be finished on the day 5 after the withdrawal at the
latest.
7. Ensure safe access, delivery, storage, and distribution of humanitarian assistance to those in
need, on the basis of an international mechanism.
8. Definition of modalities of full resumption of socio-economic ties, including social transfers,
such as pension, payments and other payments (incomes and revenues, timely payments of all
utility bills, reinstating taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine).
To this end, Ukraine shall reinstate control of the segment of its banking system in the conflict
affected areas and possibly an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers shall be
established.
9. Reinstatement of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine throughout the
conflict area, starting on day 1 after the local elections and ending after the comprehensive
political settlement (local elections in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions on the
basis of the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) to be finalized by the end of 2015,
provided that paragraph 11 has been implemented in consultation with and upon agreement
by representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the framework of
the Trilateral Contact Group.
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from
the territory of Ukraine under monitoring of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
11. Carrying out constitutional reform in Ukraine with a new Constitution entering into force by
the end of 2015, providing for decentralization as a key element (including a reference to the
specificities of certain areas in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with the
representatives of these areas), as well as adopting permanent legislation on the special status
of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in line with measures as set out in the
footnote until the end of 2015
12. Based on the Law of Ukraine “On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Lugansk regions”, questions related to local elections will be discussed and
agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the
framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant
OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of
working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will
reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
The Minsk Agreements were endorsed by the UN Security Council. The UK and USA are therefore obliged in law to support them. Yet they have abandoned them in favour of the highly intransigent position of the government of Ukraine in refusing to accept any devolution to administrations in Eastern Ukraine. Instead the Ukrainian government insists on on a highly centralised Ukrainian nationalist state.
I choked on my tea two days ago when a BBC correspondent reported that Ukraine could never implement the Minsk Agreements, because it could result in some pro-Putin MPs being elected to the Ukrainian parliament from the Eastern areas. Remember that when they tell you they are starting a war for democracy.
Western warmongering is always disgusting, but still the more so when it involves abandonment of an entirely sensible framework for peace which they themselves initiated. The press and politicians all want a war. We have been here before, and we know that neither the people nor the truth can stop them.
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A progressive Russian’s view of the Ukraine crisis:
A Progressive Russian on Ukraine – Aleksandr Buzgalin pt 1/2 (8 Feb 2022) – theAnalysis-news (Paul Jay) – YouTube, 29m 19s
This economist Alexandr Buzgalin is a communist. He gives a very good background to the situation in Russia and is very well worthwhile listening to. He points out that despite the fact that the communists are one of the largest opposition groups to Putin, that they are seldom or not at all mentioned by the corporate media which continues on about Navalny.
He also explains the close ties between Russia and Ukraine and that invading the Ukraine would be very unpopular in Russia. Worth listening to. There is also a part 2.
Thanks Craig, I think most folk reading your blog here will agree with what you are writing, and some of us will have written in other forums already with very similar comments and sentiments. This is what happens in any country when the media is not working, when such massively important matters that could have dire results, are not examined, sifted, doubted, understood, relayed, informed, probed. That the UK and US governments are getting away again with outrageous lies and propaganda, after the disaster of Iraq, after the delusions on Libya, after the destruction of civil life in Syria, is, to any sane and informed citizen, totally despairing.
The first thing you have to do to make propaganda a powerful tool is to create a bogey man, something hateful and demonic, and for the most part, the more outlandish and ridiculous, the better; now you can do anything – Saddam, Assad, Gaddafi, Putin – create them as child eating monsters, and then you can ignore them, deride them, and at the same time ignore and deride and dehumanise the millions of citizens of their own countries whose interests they represent. They may indeed be autocrats, they may be sinister, or cruel, but whether we like it or not, they are those countries’ leaders. When we attack Putin, we attack every single Russian, all of whom deserve respect simply as fellow citizens and travellers on this lonely planet of ours. How much easier to propagandise your aggression when Putin becomes the worthless, devious, heartless personification of the whole Russian nation. And it goes without saying that the same trick works equally well at home, Corbyn and Assange are our most successful examples.
The only thing that can stop this madness now would be for one of the major European leaders to grow a backbone, and to publicly state that his/her country will veto any NATO expansion to Ukraine, that Ukraine will be told by NATO that NATO’s promises to Ukraine are worthless and self-destructive, that it will remain a neutral but sovereign nation like Austria and Finland, and that it will honour the Minsk accord, and will agree with the Russian government’s request to this in perpetuity. In return, Russia will withdraw say a half its troops and equipment anywhere close to the Russian and Belarusian border with Ukraine and further agree that it will negotiate all the other matters that concern the Russian government’s security needs over an agreed time frame, say two years. Ukraine will be provided with several billion dollars of civil assistance, not military, to help it pull itself out of its economic basket case. Only Macron so far has shown any small sign of independence of thought, but as long as it remains hidden from public scrutiny, it is neither adequate nor secure.
These leaders who’ve overstayed their democratic welcome do make for great tabloid villains. Regardless of whether Putin remains popular, it’s simply not healthy to have one person in power so long. Hence why Russia thought it necessary to have Presidential term limits.
Were Russia led by a new female leader, someone who shared Putin’s foreign policy perspective & worldview, it’d really screw over the western Neocons + our legacy lackey media who’ve invested so much time and effort demonising Putin.
Are you suggesting that Maria Zakharova should be the next President of Russia?
Don’t know if she is economically strong enough to do so but she certainly packs a feisty punch in the diplomatic boxing ring….
Unfortunately the historical record shows women leaders to have been some of the biggest offenders when it comes to using force to solve problem? Think Boadicea, Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi, and not forgetting our very own Mrs T.
With all due regard to equality, it is very much the case that its always the bitch that has to have to last bark. And it was a woman who told me that. 🙂
John Monro. The Capture of the Elite via corruption and blackmail is complete. The “leaders of the future” incubating schemes have their own stooges lined up. Just look how, if Boris goes, “don’t worry we’ve got Keith lined up”. The new German Chancellor is not his own man. Macron is maneuvering to Lead Europe and help US keep Germany down, as Japan was. I see no diplomatic solutions. The Collective West has made its bed on speculation and casino economics resulting in debt. When Japan took off on manufacturing it was steered to ruin by property speculation by its Central Bank (handled by US) as Michael Hudson explains. Now they have turned their sights on Germany, this is partly what Ukraine is for.
One thing I need to add, you baldly state that David Kelly was murdered. Sorry, this is conspiracy theory stuff, You may have your doubts that he killed himself, which your are allowed to express, but as far as I know, there is no evidence available anywhere to suggest he was murdered (by some government operatives presumably?) If you wish to continue to claim doubts, you could say “allegedly killed himself” or “it seemed he committed suicide” or “it was judged by the authorities that he had committed suicide” or even “conveniently committed suicide” that’s more then enough for the alert or knowledgeable reader to understand the subtext. The problem being that you a are serious reporter, not a conspiracy theory nut – it does your credit in few eyes to so positively subscribe to conspiracy theory views. Same with the Skripals, convey your doubts if you must, but it is a fact that in much of Scotland, from what I read, you can be conveniently ignored as yet another conspiracy theorist, and your political and philosophical enemies won’t hesitate to use this fact to diminish you in public esteem. Stick to the facts, stick to what you definitely know, and you won’t be misled. Many contributing to this site might agree with everything you write, I don’t, though I agree with much of it, but there’s a huge community out there who will believe none of it if, in the absence of evidence, you persist in promoting unprovable contrary theories, which ultimately, for the most part, are just a small part of a much more important narrative.
Before you start throwing around phrases such as “conspiracy theory nut”, or demanding that Craig must “stick to the facts”, may I suggest you first read ‘An Inconvenient Death’ by Miles Goslett?
There are a lot of facts in that book, most of which have been completely ignored by the MSM, the police and the Hutton Inquiry.
There’s huge circumstantial evidence that David Kelly was murdered.
Nice try, though, John.
Highly Likely … he was murdered then
Yes John, re Kelly, that Murray asserts speculation as fact seems to not bother his readers one jot.
This cracker also jumped out at me:
I can tell you that the NSA have shared with GCHQ no communications intelligence that indicates an imminent Russian attack.
This web site. Really the credulity gap is hilarious.
Good work, thank you Craig. I was hoping you would write something about this “crisis”.
I’m surprised that – for a laugh – Putin hasn’t said something about Ukraine giving up its WMD so that Russia can feel secure, given they are surely just 45 minutes away from an attack.
Just as anyone can claim they prevented something that wasn’t going to happen anyway by making threats, can Putin not demand the lifting of sanctions as a price for calling off an attack he wasn’t going to make?
This is all so disorganised, I had been reliably informed by the BBC that the invasion was starting on Wednesday.
I had cleared my diary from next Wednesday through to the weekend, ordered in popcorn, beer and extra toilet paper for home delivery from the supermarket, AND, gone to the trouble of getting Just Eat meals booked on speed dial until the end of the week.
Now!! all my plans are buggered. It really is Russia’s fault this time…_
I must say that my usage of the term ‘reliably informed’ was limited to informing clients of my total disgust and contempt at a coup d’etat by an unprincipled woman who then had the crass arrogance to think she could ask me to do her job for her after I had resigned and moved over the pennines.
‘I have been reliably informed that my presence is not required at the aforementioned meetings….’
There’s a full moon on Wednesday.
This Wednesday’s full moon is ironically named a snow moon…_
Since US do not even accept Ukraine as a Nato member, what is this fuss about? It is absurd.
Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard sums up it good here:
Tucker: Does Biden want war? (12 Feb 2022) – Fox News (YouTube, 9m 16s)
I wouldn’t be that interested in the views of white supremacists like that Nazi Tucker Carlson, personally. He likes Putin only because Jesus’ younger brother Trump loved him so much, and because Fox opposes any position the Democrats take on reflex.
Tulsi Gabbard generally makes sense to me. She makes the same points that CM makes in his post in this interview. I don’t particularly like Tucker, but he isn’t always wrong.
I’m sure he’s not, but I don’t generally seek out the views of far-right white supremacists to make my point. Jack does, curiously enough, and then goes on to defend the miserable bastard personally.
[ Mod: Sockpuppet – aka ‘RealityIsNotPleasant‘ ]
—
You’ll never learn anything if you only ever listen to people you know you’ll agree with.
And by the way: calling Tucker Carlson a “Nazi” says more about you than about him.
Don’t be so silly. Calling Carlson a white supremacist and a Nazi, given that’s what he is, is simply stating a fact. That you want to stick up for this scumbag says a great deal about you, however.
Oh glenn-nl, Oh glenn-nl, Oh glenn-nl…
Do you have a point? If so, would you care to actually articulate it?
@glenn_nl Do you agree with me that liberalism and zionism are nazi ideologies?
Get it right Glenn, Nazis were left wing so am I to understand that Tucker Carlson is a right wing white supremacist on the left?
Steve: “… Nazis were left wing…”
Don’t be so stupid. Among the first people the Nazis persecuted were communists and socialists, and fascism was entirely about putting business into government.
I have noticed this ludicrous claim to be occasionally made by the rabidly far right and their apologists, however.
Squeeth: Zionism yes, obviously. Liberalism – I don’t think so, unless you’re talking about neo-liberal policies (which sounds like a real perversion of the term ‘liberal’, frankly – somewhat akin to “national socialism” which, ehem, seems to confuse some people such as Steve in this thread).
Please expand on your point, if you wish. Sorry I didn’t reply earlier.
Thanks for that link. Shame that Tulsi Gabbard didn’t win Democratic nomination. She (like Joe Rogan) is not afraid to say the unpopular and pops up speaking with people you might not expect to see her with. “These days” (at the risk of offending Stewart Lee) one can’t be even seen talking to some people; why? We all need to talk with those we disagree with or think we disagree with as that’s how things develop. If we de platform and only talk with those we identify with our thoughts grow sterile. That’s why I like Craig’s blog.
Joe Rogan. Oh god. Hey – have you looked at Stormfront recently? Fascinating website! We wouldn’t want our thoughts to grow sterile, after all!
@glenn_nl for someone so quick to bandy “nazi” about, you’re slow to answer my question. Come on get off the pot.
Sorry. Reply right above.
As soon as Russia asks for UN Security Council to be held on February 17, Biden schedules invasion on February 16.
I expect any provocation. I clearly visualize Nikki Haley, telling us emotionally about hundreds of victims in
DoumaDonbass.It’s close, Tatyana, but fingers crossed the Americans may not go ahead, no false flag op, at least one hopes so, read the attached it’s what it’s all about, the Nord-2 and Germany not Ukraine, the pipeline has been the bone of contention since the project began in 2015, the Americans did everything they could to stop it, sanctions, cutting off the funding, even asked the Poles to try and sabotage the laying of the pipes, the Donbas crisis is the last chance they have to convince the Germans to scrap it, let’s hope they fail:
The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It’s About Germany (11 Feb 2022) – by Mike Whitney (The Unz Review) – 1.700 words
I agree there is likely to be a Douma-style provocation – and contrary to US and British propaganda NOT carried out by Russian forces, and NOT targeted at Russian forces either.
There are other possibilities for location than the Ukrainian-Russian border and ceasefire line too.
Hi Craig. You mentioned above:
“that Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a pyrrhic victory for Putin”.
I contend that Russia was aware of Ukrainian/US plans to take over the naval facilities in Crimea, which would have meant a fully fledged US naval base effectively bottling up the Russian Black Sea fleet. Not an ideal situation, no?
There is no way Russia could allow a US naval base in Crimea, as Russia have one in Faslane !
I disagree with Craig on Crimea. The Russians made the right strategic decision. They had correctly recognized that Ukraine had already been ‘lost’ to the West for the next couple of decades no matter what. So they saved Sevastopol and the Black Sea Fleet, which are vital for Russia’s security. Khrushchev’s gifting of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 was completely undemocratic, the majority of Crimeans are pro-Russia Russians, so Crimea’s reunification with Russia was a net gain at acceptable price. Even the saner members of NATO, which of course excludes the UK, recognize that Sevastopol could not be given up by Russia; as demonstrated by the recently sacked chief of the German navy.
Time is on Russia’s side. After a couple of decades of being mesmerized by Western promises, Hungary has realized the importance of having mutually beneficial trade with Russia and China. We even refused to allow American troops being stationed in Hungary. The same will happen to Ukraine. Being an American military beachhead against Russia is not a viable long-term strategy for Ukraine. Just like being a Russian military garrison wouldn’t be a viable strategy for Mexico. Ukraine will eventually recognize this. And in the meantime, Russia has secured the Black Sea Fleet.
Yes, Russia was never going to allow the US navy to establish itself in Sevastopol.
Spot on, Akos, no Russian leader worth the name would ever allow the Crimean naval facilities to fall into the hands of a foreign power, it would be suicidal, whoever controls the port controls the western part of Russia, Moscow, all the other key cities, Putin did the right thing whatever the bleating of the Russian opponents.
I’d agree, that was a point I didn’t get round to countering in my already far too long post – Crimea remains Russian with no resistance, it’s a valuable piece of strategic real estate, the thought that Russia would permit a US backed coup in Ukraine to take over Crimea is ridiculous. But it gives the US and UK and other hangers-on an excuse to sanction Russia, it makes them feel better even if it pushes Russia and China closer together, and actually makes Russia more resilient. When the coming economic crash arrives, I’d choose Russia to survive more intact than the US. As for make Ukraine more suspicious of Russia, that’s irrelevant. Circumstance will within a very short time, demand that Ukraine becomes a more cooperative neighbour of Russia, and when Ukraine realises that the US is not its friend, but its manipulator and master,
We have reached the stage where Russia and China are, and will be, sanctioned by the West no matter what. The West is just looking for excuses, if it’s not Crimea then it will be something else. So the Russians and Chinese are just doing what’s in their best interest rightly ignoring Western opinion. Short of dying or capitulating there is no way for them to play nice.
This was inevitable with the consolidation of the Russian state after the chaos of the 90s and the rise of China. Western capitalism has proven incapable of peaceful coexistence with the rest of the planet. Their Don, Uncle Sam, has clearly stated that it won’t allow the emergence of any equal competitor. Hence the drums of war. But the US only represents 5% of mankind and short of nuclear war is not strong enough any longer to remain the hegemon.
Craig can’t see Crimea properly because he thinks it’s like Scotland, e.g. “they speak Russian but that doesn’t mean they’re pro-Russian, just as the Scots in Scotland speak English but that doesn’t mean they’re pro-English”. It’s a blind spot of his and can be ignored. Cf. his take on Catalonia. He’s rationalising from a loony McPremise.
Crimea’s drive for secession from Ukraine started right after the dissolution of the USSR. Crimeans even elected a president in 1994, who was then duly jailed by Ukraine. The whole thing predates Putin’s presidency by decades.
Craig probably has a soft spot for the Crimean Tatars. That’s fine, but by now they are a minority, so it’s ultimately not them but the majority Russians who decide Crimea’s fate. Just like in Kosovo, the indigenous Serbs only represent 10% and the majority Albanians are calling the shots, literally. But Kosovo is a failed state, while Crimea is a tourist paradise. I visited in 1987, lovely place.
The Tatars are only a minority due to Stalin’s genocide and ethnic cleansing. It’s their country.
So you agree that it’s definitely not Ukraine’s territory. Crimea was annexed by the Czarist Russian empire way before Stalin, which you seem to omit. There has been a Russian presence their for 300 years.
So what are you actually suggesting about Crimea’s future? What should happen?
The Palestinians are only a minority due to zionist genocide and ethnic cleansing. It’s their country.
Agree?
What bugs me about this is not the US/UK lying but the fact that they know that we know out here that they are lying yet they still pathologically insist on lying knowing that the msm will collude with their lying. Truss was reported to have stuck to the script in her discussion with Lavrov and she came out of it pretty uncomfortable because she knew that she was just posturing and lying like her PM. USA spokesman Sullivan tacitly admitted he was lying by indicating that there had been a change of propaganda strategy to avoid the accusations that it was a repeat of Iraq lies – “this time we are trying to prevent war” he grandly proclaims. Same BS.
Why on earth did Lavrov entertain Truss? UK has no business in the matter, it is not part of Normandy or Minsk. No longer in EU. Just a vainglorious memory, still fighting in Crimea past.
“Can our girl come and meet your boy? High level. Couple of photos. Oh please please. She’s already bought the hat.”
“Sure. No skin off our nose. Especially now you’ve confirmed you want our money to stay in London even more than we do.”
As you say – not part of Normandy, not part of Minsk, role in NATO is Deputy Supreme Brown Tongue only. Stupid self-regarding regime that will probably go into a month of national mourning when its monarch snuffs it.
Crispa
Lying is a political tactic. While the listener to lies is busy checking out their irritation at the lie, and controlling their anger at being lied to, the liar is streets ahead.
Lying is almost universal in the Muslim community and nobody minds because the assumption is that everybody is Lying all the time. One time in the mosque the speaker wanted his audience to sacrifice a bit of their time. He told us that after crossing the Red Sea, the Children of Israel were born fully clothed, and all the clothes grew along with the child. When you chuck out few random whoppers the audience swallows the last lie hook, line and sinker.
The US and UK are categorically Lying about Russia planning to invade Ukraine. Boris Johnson is a professional liar. He always lies, all the time. But when he has worn out his audience with his whoppers, he sticks in the killer lie and we all cave in.
I can’t speak for the women of the UK, but the majority of men here have no truck with Boris Johnson ‘sticking his whopper into us so that we all cave in’ ??
Well, well, well; so we’re back towards sliding into a military conflict of our ‘choice’ again, for our ‘values.’ This attitude, actually makes going to war easier and easier, because we don’t need to be threatened directly by a foreign state to justify war, we only have to argue that our ‘values’ are being trampled on somewhere. In fact going to war and engaging in reckless military adventure overseas, is getting easier all the time: and this is after the debacle that was Afghanistan!
I’d argue that Washington wants war in Ukraine in order to create a new Afghanistan for Russia, right on its border, in the hope that this will be so costly and bloody that Putin will be mortally damaged and his regime will fall, opening Russia up again to Western ‘influence.’
Also, a war in Ukraine will stop Germany from accessing Russian gas and linking its economy to that of Russia and China. Germany’s limited sovereignty will shrink to almost nothing and it will be a true vassal state, what the longterm consequences for Germany’s politics of this miserable status, doesn’t bear thinking about. I think it’ll mean a rise in German nationalism from the right, demanding German independence.
I heard the BBC corespondent in Ukraine, arguing that president Zelenksy sounds far less gungho about war than London or Wasgington. A gap has opened up. According to the BBC, and this sounds like a conspiracy theory to me, Washington has far better and more detailed intelligence than Zelinsky does and he’s surrounded by Russian agents who’ve infiltrated the Ukrainian intelligence service and who are feeding him a false picture of the Russian threat to his country! I had to smile at this. The logic and arguments presented by the BBC about Ukraine are absurd and don’t stand up to a moments critical thought or scrutiny. It’s both shocking and outrageous, not to mention dangerous.
The answer to why now, probably lies in NS 2 and the upcoming US Midterms.
This is probably the last chance the Biden administration will have to exercise influence over the fate of Nord Stream 2. While NS 2 isn’t everything to Russia, Nord Stream 2 has taken on almost mythical status and importance in the US and their protégés in Ukraine. US politicians have gone as far as talking about physically attacking the pipeline. And Biden himself recently humiliated visiting new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by saying they [the US] will stop NS 2. Previously, the US made former German Chancellor Merkel sign a deal to reimburse Ukraine for any lost transit fees in a wider package worth some $2bn.
If the polls play out as now, Biden knows he’ll be the lamest of lame ducks after November, and his party may be in a state of near open revolt if they lose heavily. He hasn’t been able to get much of his domestic agenda through, or wanted to many suspect? Covid is still a nightmare in the US too. When the US death toll reached 200,000 under Trump, Biden claimed he’d forfeited all right to be President. As of today it’s 918,000!
Scholz is an utterly weak ‘leader’, a phantom chancellor. The show is being hijacked by unhinged fake greens like Baerbock and Habeck. The nominal chancellor is nowhere to be seen and heard.
The country went from having a chancellor with a PhD in quantum chemistry to a quintet leadership of a lawyer, an economist, a freelance journalist, an English major translating obscure English poetry to German, and whatever Annalena currently lies about her qualifications. These scientifically illiterate minions are ‘guiding’ the highly technical transition to a greener power grid. Not that Merkel’s scientific credentials helped, since she initiated the unreasonable closure of the German NPPs.
NS2 has already returned its investment. It cost Russia 5 billion dollars, but last year Gazprom had something like 20 billion dollar excess profits compared to 2020, thanks to the record high gas prices, which are the direct result of NS2’s existence and the complete EU mismanagement of its launch. Every time Baerbock opens her stupid mouth, the gas price goes up and the Russians and Norwegians make a couple of billion dollars more.
Scholz is in a bind, as was Merkel.
I think he’s handled the situation quite well thus far. On Tuesday he goes to Moscow, Putin speaks German, so maybe optimism there’ll be some progress in understanding positions?
Scholz sees the US is a major export market for Germany and he knows the US can be extremely vindictive, and will slap sanctions on friend or foe alike. The increasing trend towards use secondary sanctions is a particularly pernicious development, as it infringes on and strikes at sovereignty, it’s an extraterritorial overreach too far.
Annalena Baerbock, I wouldn’t trust at all. She was the corporate media’s darling and that positive exposure is how she and her party shot up in the polls so quickly. We’ve seen it here in the UK, anyone that heavily favoured & promoted by the MSM has likely being groomed for power, or serves certain agenda(s).
Scholz is in a bind, because he is a quisling, just like Merkel was and the German political class generally is. But Merkel at least had respect within the Provisional Authority she was running in the Berlin Green Zone on behalf of the yanks. Scholz is a grey little mousy mouse. Big mouth unhinged Baerbock and Habeck are setting the agenda.
China is a larger trading partner for Germany now than the US. The US is vindictive, but it is not an omnipotent power. The EU is a bigger market, 450 million people, and could hit the US hard too with retaliatory sanctions. Start with the junk food symbols of the US of A, McDonalds and Coke/Pepsi. And the list is long.
What is missing is the slightest will to be a self-respecting sovereign entity. The EU clowns couldn’t even say no to Trump. Trump was a golden opportunity for Europe to carve out a little more independence from its American overlord without being smeared with anti-Americanism. But these quislings didn’t even manage that. We can’t even spend ‘our’ currency without American authorization, as the Iran nuclear saga shows.
Satrapies don’t shine and Europe will slide further into global irrelevance under American domination. China is simultaneously operating a rover on the Moon and Mars, while Europe cannot even produce enough face masks. This trend will just accelerate.
” According to the BBC, and this sounds like a conspiracy theory to me, Washington has far better and more detailed intelligence than Zelinsky does and he’s surrounded by Russian agents who’ve infiltrated the Ukrainian intelligence service and who are feeding him a false picture of the Russian threat to his country!”
It is a conspiracy theory because it involves people working together in secret, but its not a very likely one for the reasons given.
Usually, in the US, foreign policy and their seemingly endless wars for ‘freedom’ across the globe, are based on a system that looks and smells like one party state lashing out over and over again, kickin’ somebody’s ass, just because they can.
The awful liberals and soft-in-the-head ‘left’ around the ghastly Democratic Party, have lurched massively to the right, much like Labour here in the UK. Tucker Carlson is about the only person inside the straight-jacket of the mainstream media that dares to ask some serious critical questions about the dangerous direction of US foreign policy. I’d love it if there were others doing the same, only there aren’t. So, more power to Tucker Carlson. That he’s now being smeared by these god awful, smug and conceited media Democrats, as a Russian stooge, shows just how braindead most of them really are.
What’s going on at Fox News?
Glenn Greenwald is a regular guest, the excellent Aaron Maté was on recently. It’s cool that alternative views are finally being aired to such a large audience, but I’m a bit perplexed as to why it’s happening at that particular channel to have made it possible. My memory of Fox News from when I could watch it here in the UK, was of Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity being all chummy with various Neocon guests and other assorted hawkish warmongers.
Glenn Greenwald seems to hold the view that US Liberals have turned into socially illiberal/authoritarian Neocons, and the right are becoming more libertarian and anti-war? But I’m not entirely convinced that’s true.
@Goose There is a world of difference between the left and “the left”, which events are exposing ever more starkly. The real left is morally consistent, not opportunistically grabbing for fame and fortune.
“If Putin really wished to escalate matters, he would be much more likely to cut gas supplies than to invade Ukraine.”
Russia does not supply gas to Ukraine. It has long blotted its books by syphoning gas off that destined for Europe in transit through Ukraine and not paying for it. Ukraine now gets its gas energy from Europe. As for the western claims that Russia would use gas as a political weapon, that is pure western projection. The USSR was a reliable supplier of energy to Europe thoughout the Cold War and Borrel of the EU has stated that Russia supplies all that is is contracted to. The NS2 pipeline is of minor interest to Russia. It is purely for Germany’s benefit. Russia has just signed contract to supply China with 10 billion cubic meteres of gas and 100 million tons of oil. As far as Russia is concerned, it will supply the EU with gas according to a signed contract, or equally happily not if no contract is signed. It is the EU’s choice. Russia can sell to more reliable customers elsewhere in the world.
As for Russia invading Ukraine, that is just another example of western projection. If necessary, Russia will trash Ukraine’s military logistics, weapons stores, communications and attack facilities without leaving Russian territory. It fired Kalbr cruise missiles from the Caspian against ISIS targets in Syria with ~100% target strike rate at a range of ~1200 km. The most distant part of Ukraine is only ~900 km from Russian territory. The Ukraine neo-nazis launch an attack against the Russian speaking east Ukranians, Russia will help again without leaving Russian territory.
Ukraine doesn’t get its energy from Europe. It buys Russian gas that has been originally invoiced to another European country. As it states in the article.
It has been mooted that the object of US policy is to prevent Europe from doing buisness with Russia and China by ‘sanctioning’ Russia thus forcing Europe to do more of its buisness with the US.
America’s real adversaries are its European and other allies: The U.S. aim is to keep them from trading with China and Russia – by Michael Hudson (The Saker, 8 Feb 2022)
Insanity heaped upon insanity and magnified by the insanity of our media.
We (our polity, that is) have fallen very far, and continue to fall disturbingly further, from the heyday of our post-war social democratic settlement – the lunatics truly have taken over the asylum. It was incredible to watch Truss’s deranged performance at the press conference with Lavrov last week and realise that this person is currently the close second favourite (the favourite of some) to become the UK’s next Prime Minister.
It is a very good time to rewatch Stanley Kubrick’s ‘Dr Strangelove’.
All that being said, I think a peaceful settlement will eventually transpire here.
It seems abundantly clear to me that some elements (the lunatics) in the American Establishment actually desire military confrontation with Russia, presumably to establish in their minds their sense of their own global supremacy. It came very close in Syria. Based on what she was saying at the time, had Hilary Clinton become President she might have actually made it happen – don’t forget she was the main proponent of the bombing of Libya.
Unlike in Syria it would appear that now they wish to urge others to do their fighting for them, in this case the hapless Ukrainian government.
When Merkel and Hollande shot off to Moscow a few years ago to establish a cease fire in the region our media told us it was because of the threat of Russian invasion. The real reason was because of America’s threat to send in $93bn of weaponry to the Ukrainian government to facilitate a war on mainland Europe. Merkel and Hollande had not informed the US of their mission and the US was very displeased about that and that they were successful.
The lunatics may be in the ascendant at the moment but I believe there is enough sanity amongst the EU leaders and in Putin to ensure against the looming catastrophe that UK politicians and media foolishly (insanely) dream of.
CM mentions that Russia’s alternative to invading Ukraine would be to cut gas supply to Ukraine. Isn’t the issue of gas transit through Ukraine to Europe the real reason for talking up Russian invasion, so as to pressure Germany into giving up the Nord Stream II Project?
Ukraine may well claim it doesn’t need Russian gas and could buy gas from its neighbours – even though the neighbour’s gas would also come from Russia and Kiev would be paying higher prices! The problem for Ukraine though is it relies on gas transit from Russia through its territory to Europe for income through transit fees. Nord Stream II is a threat to gas transit through Ukraine.
The reason the US needs to talk up Russian invasion plans is to have an excuse to pressure Germany and others to sanction Russian individuals and state companies like Gazprom. Then Germany would have to start relying on LNG supplies from the US once gas transit from Ukraine stops when the latter’s gas network infrastructure eventually winds down for lack of maintenance over the past 30+ years.
Yes.
Stopping it has become an obsession in the US, it’s part of what they see as a geopolitical struggle.
Nord Stream 2 going fully operational would drive certain US politicians and present and former State Dept officials eg. Nuland, to fury…
NS2 is important but not vital for Russia. It is the last major pipeline Russia has built to Western Europe. The Russians realized that the next few decades will see decreased Western gas demand, irrespective of the manufactured Ukraine crisis, as the scientifically illiterate fake European greens will try to square the circle and run industrial economies purely on wind and solar.
This experiment will of course fail, but in the meantime the rest, which actually is the most, of the world will need gas as a transitional fuel. Russia can sell its gas mostly to the developing world. It will take time but the demand is there. The world needs more and more reliable energy, 24/7, and green imperialism will fail.
Gas is not a “transitional” fuel any more than a muffin is a transitional diet from a cream bun for my diabetic patient. You can certainly argue about the wisdom of shutting down nuclear power plants in the face of global warming, but transitional gas? We’ve already had 30 years of transitional gas in the UK, tell me, pray, exactly how long this transition going to last? The science is dire – we go onto renewables and energy reduction urgently or we suffer some very serious consequences indeed.
Despite my excellent private education, military officer education, including in-depth history, and later college, it was not until some long haired professor from Boston College informed me that the UK, the US, and a long list of countries had invaded and fought a seven year war against Russia, on Russian soil, that I began to question everything I thought I knew.
We, the west, have attacked, invaded, and fought a war with Russia. They have not reciprocated the favour.
I find in my considerable travels that most people are in the dark on this subject.
Except for the Russians.
Or, that on more than one occasion over the past decades, Russian officers refused orders to launch nuclear weapons, turning the cold war into Armageddon.
Typically, I am met with some variations of: you’re wrong, prove it, and finally, “yeah, but…” followed by justification or deserved action, despite their not knowing any of this just moments before.
We all need a good hard look in the mirror, if we could only find one that wasn’t tainted by miscreant governments and their sycophant media cronies.
In reality the solution is very simple: Ukrainain gov. make peace with Donbas, that is, fulfulling the Minsk agreements, then Russia would back off with its troops from their border. But the West are not interested even though it was them along with Russia & Ukraine that wrote the agreements but they have not been implemented, instead they have propped up Ukraine with support and arms. Of course Russia is getting worried. Adding to that, Ukraine have been banning Russian media for years and recently in effect banned the Russian language in Ukrainian media.
New move in Ukrainian clampdown on Russian language: New publishing law does not recognize Russian as native language in country (17 Jan 2022) – by Jonny Tickle (RT News)
Imagine if a western nation banned arabic, jewish language news/media, that is pretty much what happend in Ukraine.
The Ukies have banned the Hungarian language too and are harassing the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia, Yet, they expect us to support them in their anti-Russian paranoia and supply them with reversed Russian gas.
Not many Hungarians will fight or lift a finger for this gas stealing corrupt collection of oligarchic fiefdoms called Ukraine. By not many I mean zero.
The plan was to split Ukraine between Hungary and Poland and Russia and voila the map would have had the Nato against Russia line all the way down to the Black Sea and created plenty of resistance to BRI on its western progression Hasn’t quite worked out quite like the genius masters wanted but they never give up! Because they believe in their ancient wisdom and genius. Lol.
The faked “incident” (did the White Helmets find new employment?) may still happen, but it won’t be Russian forces that carry it out. It was never going be.
2008: Israel arms Georgia and tanks them up to provoke a war with Russia. Russia wins.
2020: Israel arms Azerbaijan and tanks them up to attack Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan wins.
2022: fresh back from Israel, a regime for which he has expressed his great love, President Zelensky tries to provoke a war with Russia.
Who remembers the 2017 Russian mobilisation in Ukraine’s direction? It was similar to the mobilisation of 2022. Followed by demobilisation, it has been almost totally forgotten in the western media.
This time the US and their ridiculous monarchist British lapdog actually send troops to Ukraine, which after discussions with President Putin they have now started to withdraw.
Any substantial step towards Ukraine – which is under a pro-Israeli and revanchist government that wants to seize Donetsk, Luhansk, and the Crimea – joining NATO would rightly be considered an act of aggression against Russia.
Similarly in 1939 France and Britain declared war on Germany not because of Poland (remember Bohemia and Moravia) but because Germany signed a non-aggression pact with the USSR (which didn’t even go as far as a NATO-style “mutual defence” pact). Why should Russia tolerate US warplanes and US bases on its longest European border? NATO is, believe it or not, supposedly a “defensive” alliance. Well accepting Ukraine as a member would not be defensive against anything. It would be tantamount to aggression.
Another thing that’s not being mentioned in the media is that any NATO member (France for example) can veto any non-member’s accession.
The USA has actually been humiliated so far in this whole business. You wouldn’t know it from the MSM though.
Azeris with the aid of Turkey regained their former territory occupied by Armenia in 1993. More than 50% of the Armenian occupied territory was not a part of Nagorno-Karabagh, and was populated prior to the 1993-94 occupation primarily by Azeri Turks (98% of the population).
The 2020 war simply illustrated the failure of OSCE Minsk group in resolving the crisis diplomatically, which inevitably led to the 2020 war.
The Azeris regained part, not all, of their lost territories. And Russia is now based in Nagorno-Karabakh as peacekeeper.
Turkey denies the Armenian genocide to this day, so we shouldn’t celebrate its continuing hostility to Armenia.
Turkey is making efforts to normalize relations with Armenia.
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-armenia-mull-further-steps-for-full-normalization-cavusoglu-170911
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-armenian-envoys-to-hold-2nd-meeting-on-feb-24-171272
As for the “genocide”. What makes you think it was a “genocide”?
“Ankara has repeatedly proposed the creation of a joint commission of historians from Turkey and Armenia as well as international experts to tackle the issue.”
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-shares-legal-grounds-to-answer-genocide-claims-164277
The heavy use of propaganda that you see used by Western nations today against its “adverseries”, was also used heavily in the past, but without the internet to provide alternative evidence, viewpoints or arguments.
The writings of the late Robert Fisk makes me think it was genocide.
But I have to admit, I am losing interest in commenting on this blog, because it starts to show signs of becoming an echo chamber, moderating out posts that disagree with the unspoken sacred cows of the host/moderator. Very few blogs manage to avoid this fate.
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[ Mod: It’s got nothing to do with “unspoken sacred cows”. The comments facility is for commenting on Craig’s articles. If you want to raise other issues, use the discussion forum. ]
[ Mod: Sockpuppet – aka ‘Nick‘, ‘Fairness‘, ‘Robert‘, ‘Roger‘, and others ]
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There is widespread misunderstanding of what motivates politicians.
The most important thing – by far – to a politician is staying in power. If Biden can increase his chances of re-election by having a war in Europe – possibly including a tactical nuke exchange that leaves Ukraine, Poland, and part of Germany uninhabitable, with deaths of millions of Europeans and thousands of Americans – then he will provoke a war in Europe.
Recent news from Ukraine and Poland suggests that the politicians in power in those countries may not be completely rational, so the only realistic hope for peace is Germany and possibly France; and there does seem to be some pushback from those countries. The British electorate has been well prepared by the MSM, and will applaud Boris as he arranges for British troops to be killed in a pointless conflict, but it wouldn’t matter if the voters were well-informed, because Starmer’s Labour Party is as much devoted to arselicking the US President as the Tories are.
The German political class is completely hopeless. Subservience to the US is hard-wired in the system. Germany is Europe’s Japan, an occupied country, a US protectorate. The country is hysterically shutting down its last 3 NPPs by the end of the year, but is perfectly OK with American nuclear weapons of mass destruction being stationed here. Nuff said about German hypocrisy.
Macron has a much healthier view of Europe’s place and role in the world. Maybe he gave private assurances to Putin that France will veto any Ukie attemp at joining NATO. But of course Russia would need written guaranties, understandably.
As for the UK, it’s not even an EU country any more. So I don’t understand why we continental Europeans tolerate its malignant warmongering in our continent. Go and fight your war with Russian in your own territory.
With respect, Ukraine is not an EU country either, so the EU has no more business in Ukraine than the UK does. In my opinion, the countries worthy of having an opinion on Ukraine include yours, Poland and Ukraine’s neighbours to the south. Oh, and of course: Russia and possibly Belarus.
The EU has played a malignant role in this too. But given that a few of its member countries are bordering Ukraine, the EU does have more business in Ukraine than non-EU member faraway UK. It seems to me that the decibel of warmongering is proportional to one’s distance from the potential frontline. Of all Western European countries, the UK also seems to
suffer from the most pathological hatred of Russia/Slavs. For the record, I am not a fan of the current neoliberal EU, which operates in many ways like the Warsaw Pact and COMECON did.
[ Mod: Sockpuppet – aka ‘Nick‘, ‘Fairness‘, ‘Robert‘, ‘Roger‘, and others ]
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I sort of agree with most of your position, but you seem a little over-the-top in your dislike of the UK.
(1) “the UK also seems to suffer from the most pathological hatred of Russia/Slavs”. With respect, this is nonsense; Brits don’t hate Russia at all. Boris’ adventurism is driven by sucking up to the USA, not hatred of Russia/Slavs. If you want to see real hatred of Russia, talk to some Poles.
(2) UK “involvement” in continental Europe: it’s part of the NATO alliance, which made a lot of sense until 30 years ago, and is part of Europe. Europe is not just the EU. If you believe the UK has never contributed anything to Europe, perhaps you need to read some history.
I don’t quite understand. The west isn’t warmongering, surely? The west is simply saying; “Please don’t go to war – respect the rights of independent countries, the way we always do!” It’s saying to Russia: “Look, you can be our friend. All you have to do is be more like us and do as we ask. What’s so hard about that? We’re happy to enter into any negotiations you like in order to help you do this”. Putin objects, asserting his right to conquer and exploit anyone disagreeing with him. After all what could be more natural than assassinating people in foreign countries putting forward views opposed to his (sorry I don’t mean his – I mean those of the freely elected Russian state).
No! These countries, east, west or china are all led by wealthy megalomaniacs more interested in their own interests and maintenance of such wealth and privilege than the “well being” of their nation or its inhabitants. Understand that, and everything fits.
I dislike the UK’s establishment, not its culture and the average citizen. I studied and worked in the UK for some 3 years, in Reading and Harwell. English is the only foreign language I command to some degree. I love Poirot, Keeping up appearances, As time goes by, what not.
But my experience is that a borderline racist looking down on Russia and Russians is fairly common even among the educated classes.
The UK is Europe but not EU. Russia is Europe too. I don’t see any reason to consult the UK on what kind of relationship we continental EU citizens should have with a neighboring country, Russia. Your government is stoking war next door to my country. We have already lived through the consequences of Western meddling in the former Yugoslavia. We don’t need faraway Westerners starting another devastating war that won’t affect them.
One extremely important aspect of all of this is NATO.
A French undertaking to block Ukrainian membership of NATO would be great (from the perspective of those who don’t fancy getting nuked) but it’s extremely unlikely under Macron.
Incidentally all NATO members have such a veto regardless of whether they are in or out of the military command structure.
This is going to be one hell of a French election.
Macron incidentally hasn’t announced his candidacy yet.
Mélenchon favours France leaving NATO.
On the far right, Le Pen too favours France leaving NATO, and Zemmour wants France to leave the NATO military command structure.
So you’re proudly touting your status as “unvaxed” now, instead of pretending to be a Marxist? That label is more important. Fascinating.
LOL
Guardian Live Just
“The US has picked up intelligence Russia is discussing next Wednesday as the target date for starting military action, officials told the New York Times, but they acknowledged it’s possible mentioning a particular date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort”.
Next Wednesday, so, all quiet on the Western Front until then?
Guardianistas can sleep easy.
‘Washington’s disinformation campaigns at Langley just issued their latest pack of lies and we printed it without questioning its veracity’….
Yes the guardian do not realize it is they themselves are being hoodwinked! What a disgrace the guardian turned out to be, during the Iraq war they were one of the best oppositional media. Today? They have become neocon pro-war media.
Russia is a massive threat to the rules based Western authority especially now China is benefitting hugely from Russian expertise in space travel including hyperspace weaponry. Our gaol is to weaken Russia and we do this the Zion way by deception. Fuck the Minsk we will ‘invade’ Russian Ukraine in typical proxy war fashion and kill Russians with modern Western supplied weapons (and expertise). The ‘wily’ Putin will be forced into a move where the West will freeze all Russian foreign assets and crash the Russian energy exports. President Putin pushed the plot in Biden’s face today warning if the plot goes ahead this Wednesday expect another Syria or Iraq or Libya or Afghanistan or … fuck you unipolar freaks!
What I find very worrying is that America has set a date, Russia will attack Ukraine during the Olympics. With the earlier talks of a “Russian” plot to commit a false flag in Ukraine, a particular picture has been drawn.
I find it unlikely that nothing will happen. Just today America ordered their diplomatic staff to leave Ukraine, then Russia followed suit. Instead I suspect a flair up, most likely near Donbas, with talk of UK forces in the region I suspect that a false flag is indeed being arranged, to frame Russia as attacking Ukraine.
This will give an excuse for more sanctions against Russia, and more diplomatic ammunition that Putin is evil. American rhetoric appears to want to separate China, Russia and similarly aligned countries outside the Worldwide economy, to prevent their growth and re-secure American hegemony.
Hopefully I am wrong, I have tendency for fearing the worse. But that makes most sense to me from what I have seen.
If such events do take place it will also allow the mainstream to delegitimise people like Craig and us, that Russia is not the aggressor in this case.
Read this, it’s what the American are after, it’s not about Ukraine, it’s about the N-2 and Germany:
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-crisis-in-ukraine-is-not-about-ukraine-its-about-germany/
On the US side,I’d agree – it’s all about the hydrocarbons. Stopping Nord Stream 2 benefits the US, both strategically and economically. There is another side to that. Gerhard Schroeder is closely involved with Nord Stream 2. In the 2002 federal elections Schroeder made it clear that he would not participate in the Iraq war. His foreign minister, the green Joschka Fischer, was also opposed to participation in the war. I have to wonder to what extent the US have got a side order here of giving Schroeder a kicking by stopping Nord Stream 2 because he was opposed to the Iraq war.
The crisis appears to be as much about a conflict between the EU and the US (with the UK cheering from the sidelines) as between the West and Russia.
On the Russia side, failures seem to go back to Gorbachev’s actions following the fall of the Berlin wall, German reunification, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of communist rule in Russia. There was a need for a comprehensive peace and security treaty at that point, but the ousting of Gorbachev perhaps made this difficult.
Meanwhile… and not to be missed… Joe Biden signs an order to give half of the 6th poorest country in the world’s seized cash reserves to Americans.
Biden releases $7bn in frozen Afghan funds to split between 9/11 families and aid: Money would go toward humanitarian efforts for Afghan people and to US victims of terrorism, keeping it out of hands of Taliban (11 Feb 2022) – by Nina Lakhani and Emma Graham-Harrison (The Guardian)
(There wasn’t a single Afghan involved in 9/11 and the then Afghan (and Taliban) Foreign Minister, hearing of the attack from an external source, tried to warn the US of the attack)
well spotted. It is a complete disgrace but I am not in any way surprised.
When the negotiations in Minsk were going on, Poroshenko was reported to be on the phone with Obama almost non-stop. It became clear to me later, what they were talking about. Apparently, Obama told the Ukrainian president, “Sign whatever they tell you to sign, but do not fulfil anything. And we will tell the world that Russia is to blame.” So this is the Big Lie coming from Obama, and the fault of the Western mass media is that they broadcasted it as if this was an unquestionable truth.
Emmanuel Macron is one of the few on the NATO side calling for sanity and an end to the relentless antagonism. When associated primarily with “reforming” the social-democratic French state he was an icon of British moderates, liberals, centrists, pragmatists, etc. Now they shun him and line up behind our war leaders, smirking Boris and silly Liz. The Guardian nods sage approval as Sir Keir waves his flaccid willy at the Red Army, issuing dire threats in an Alan Partridge voice. This is the “place in the world” Remainers feared Great Britain had lost.
I don’t line up behind our war leaders, I have been calling them far worse than you for weeks.
But I don’t have time for the way Macron behaves towards Britain: he is a two-faced, unprincipled slime-ball who thinks that it’s his job to send all the French refugees across to the UK. Whether or not their first port of call in the EU was France, it certainly is not the UK. End of discussion….
I was talking about Macron’s approach to the matter at hand, but glad you saw in it another opportunity.
Indeed, Macron should have credit for his efforts, it is really terrible that Merkel have left the scene. She also had a more sane view on Russia. Now we have a europe that have leaders that just tag behind Nato and the US, total subservience, Russia have no one to talk to.
I doubt that mutti is too far away from the scene. In fact she has probably got a lot more time to deal with the situation. She also knows ALL the insiders and all their allegiances. And she worked closely with Schulz .. and she kept Macron away from the levers by keeping him very close.
It is the brave new world finally when Germany and Russia can actually move Europe finally away from being a battlefield of the City.
Radio 4 is using its Sunday religious slot to make a collage of war and poetry as the Cross-Aiders try to conflate a random, rambling God with rambling politicians with random ideas. Bishop Boris and archbishop Biden are perverse because God is perverse and God loves perversion. He knows that Russia and China are evil, even though he has somehow granted them Gas and technology, which are obviously actually ours. And God wants us to fight for the Gas and technology that have unfortunately been given to other nations.
Here endeth the proselytising Lesson from the British Broadcasting Crusade. Ahem!
Last week’s Sunday programme was equally warlike (though the target was China and the alleged exodus of christians from Hong Kong) and blatantly part of the BBC’s broad spectrum pro war propaganda push. An hour earlier, and “Something Understood” was dribbling out thoughts of “Christian” soldiers at war,
US nuke submarine in Russian territorial waters.
Russian warship chases off U.S. submarine near Pacific islands, Moscow says (12 Feb 2022) – CBS News
No mention of this story in any UK news media.
More provocation of Russia by the USA, if you were in any doubt.
I stand corrected, by myself.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17633346/russia-ukraine-us-submarine-violating-waters/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1644686756-2
Biden tells us that Russia will invade Ukraine on Wednesday. We have to wait for him to tell us the exact time so we may set our watches. It must be when US or UK Special Forces have scheduled their false flag event.
US submarine entered Russia’s territory near Kuril islands in the Pacific.
One may only wonder what sort of Geography people get in their schools, to connect the Pacific with Ukraine 🙂 Nevermind, I understand they are instructed to always mention Ukraine, however silly it may turn out. Presumably, the audience sttudied Geography at the same schools, so noone would notice anything starnge it it.
Russian report on the incident says:
U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarine was discovered near Urup Island in the Kuril Ridge. The crew of the submarine was given a message in Russian and English via underwater communication: “You are in the territorial waters of Russia. Surface immediately!” The foreign warship ignored the demand.
The crew of the frigate “Marshal Shaposhnikov” used appropriate means.
The American submarine used a self-propelled simulator to double the target on radar and acoustic control means and left Russian territorial waters at maximum speed.
The US denies the incident:
https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1492610601503363077
“There is no truth to the Russian claims of our operations in their territorial waters. I will not comment on the precise location of our
submarines.”
by Paul McLeary from Pentagon
—
Usuall US manner of wording their statements in a way, that they may later deny or play with the meaning of what was said. This time I think they will point out to the fact, that Japan wants Kuril islands and US support this.
The same was done with Ukrainian ships trying to walk everywhere they wish in the Black sea. And, that British ship full of red-cheeked young men, sailing near Crimea.
I wonder what would be US’s reaction, if Russia stated that we don’t recognize their souvereignty over Texas, and thus felt free to walk out our warships in the Gulf of Mexico?
By the way, we could also recognize the independence of Scotland from the English crown, and sail to you on a friendly visit 🙂
“One may only wonder what sort of Geography people get in their schools, to connect the Pacific with Ukraine”
Indeed. Liz Truss doesn’t have much geography education between her ears either when she reaches to Baltic states from Ukraine across the Black Sea, actually considerably more than 700 miles if she is starting by going south in the opposite direction from Kjiv across the Black Sea.
History is off the syllabus apparently as well. USUK failed in Afghanistan and left the country and its people in a terrible state only five or six months ago on 30 August 2021. Here we (nearly) are again with warmongering on a grand scale. The only major beneficiary in the UK so far has been the share value of BAE.
The only connection between the the Pacific submarine event and that of the Ukraine situation is that of USUK policy to annoy and provoke Moscow at any and every opportunity. If USUK provocation prevails, Europe will have its own Afghanistan with bodies piled high (Boris Johnson’s expression borrowed from his response to Covid) and hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing in all directions. Who wants that apart from the USUK warmongers? I cannot imagine Scholz and Macron like the idea at all.
Ha! I can understand Black and Baltic sea sound somewhat similar, so it could be just a slip of tongue. Though, very funny.
But what is outragously stupid thing of her, is her latest visit to Moscow to demonstrate her furs and russophobia 🙂
When talking to Lavrov she said Russia should get our military away from Ukraine. Lavrov answered, that our military are in our territory, or, does she consider the Rostov and Voronezh regions are not Russian? Your super clever Ms.Truss replied, that the UK will never recognise Russian sovereignty over these areas! OH! MY! GOD!
That wasn’t a slip of tongue, no way. She had all context and all time to think and to answer, but failed to use it.
Your British Ambassador had to interfere at that moment and give some explanations to your Foreign Furry Minister.
I am incredulous and ashamed that our country is represented by such a vacuous numpty but perhaps a truss is useful when our foreign secretary’s speech is so herniated or popping out in unexpected ways. It says quite a lot about the Johnson gov that she did not seek out a briefing that included some basic geography. Her predecessor was likewise an embarrassment.
“For all these western political interests, they see a win-win over Ukraine, because when Putin does not invade, they can claim it is a victory and that they forced Putin to back down.”
I hope this is a ‘declare victory and leave’ manouvre with Russian collusion so that NATO can withdraw its missiles like its been told to.
Its a Massive distraction !
And with the House of Covid collapsing rather unexpectedly, if not dramatically, the distraction needs to be truly massive. And what could be more massive than a bogus threat of international tension with a ‘Super Power’ that has the ability to make the mushrooms grow?
For those interested, YT has a series of lectures by a Prof John Mearsheimer that paint what is a rather more realistic picture of Russian, Ukraine, and USA positions than is being trumpeted by the MSM at this time.
Quote – ” … a surmise from satellite and other monitoring of the movement of Russian assets.”
Yes there is surmise here but is not a reasonable inference from what Putin is actually doing?
Having said that, a good article. The UK is not in a strong position as was evident this week in the attitude shown by the Russians toward Truss and others though it appears that UK politicians gave their Russian counterparts some interesting presents !
The situation is extremely worrying for many reasons. Compared to the buildup for the Iraq war there are several differences.
I am sure there are many others.