Currently nobody in power wants peace. Both sides believe they might yet improve their position on the ground. Thousands are needlessly dying horrible deaths in Europe. But the West now has a proxy war with Russia itself that is weakening Russia militarily, economically and diplomatically. Putin has to keep going, hoping to show something he can portray as victory and worth all the pain. Meantime the arms manufacturers and related interests are profiting enormously – and never forget that applies to both sides.
NATO is cock-a-hoop with probable expansion to include Sweden and Finland. That is one of very many ways in which Putin’s war is counterproductive for Russia and makes its strategic problems worse.
The most alarming aspect of all this is the blithe brinkmanship with which the West is pushing Putin towards a position where his only chance of claiming victory is to use tactical nuclear weapons. [And yes I have read Scott Ritter, I both know and like him but think he is very wrong about Russian ground superiority].
It does not have to be nuclear Armageddon. There is a more likely scenario where the war carries on for years, and probably Russia inflicts increasing damage on cities with long range weapons. That would be unlikely to involve radical change from current frontlines; we could have hundreds of thousands of casualties over as much as three to five years. I believe this is what NATO actually want to happen. It would in effect leave a frozen conflict looking not too different to today, but with much more destruction.
This is the time that true statesmen would be trying to end the conflict. The only person who in the least appears to have been making genuine efforts is Macron, for which he is reviled. The UN evidently judge it too early to talk about more than ceasefires and humanitarian corridors. Do not be discouraged by or critical of that. These “confidence building measures” – ceasefires, evacuations, prisoner exchanges, humanitarian relief – are how conflict resolution classically starts.
So, if I were in the UN working on an outline peace proposal, what would it look like? Well, here are some first thoughts.
Now I know some people will ask why anybody should look at any proposals from me. Well, plainly I have no current standing. But I do have experience. Together with then Head of UN Peacekeeping, my late friend Kofi Annan, I while Head of Cyprus Section at the FCO drafted the Cyprus peace plan that we then took into proximity negotiation with Denktash and Clerides. We did not have total success but the process did contribute to the island’s current peace and prosperity.
Further as UK Representative to the Sierra Leone Peace Talks, I was deeply involved in the drafting and the negotiation with all sides of the Sierra Leone Peace Accord, as detailed at length in my book The Catholic Orangemen of Togo. That conflict probably had more casualties than the Ukraine War to date and was just as bitter, with its own extremely complicated history and causes.
So in suggesting ideas for the draft of a “Peace Plan”, this is something I have done in “real life”, not just a fool opining from his armchair. For that look to some of my other posts!
The first and most difficult question is territory, as it is in most armed conflict. Russia currently occupies large areas of Ukrainian territory. This is a powerful negotiating position. Ukraine has recovered significant ground around Kiev following that particular defeated attack, and smaller parcels elsewhere. In the last couple of weeks, gains and losses by both sides have been broadly in balance, though Western media emphasises the Ukrainian gains.
If we are starting from broadly the current territorial position, my basic proposal would be this. Ukraine formally cedes Crimea to Russia, and Russia hands back all other Ukrainian territory, including the Donbass.
This gives Putin a boast he can make to his people – the World, which had refused to recognise the Russian annexation, would now have bowed to Russia’s rule. The US, UK, Germany, all had been made to acknowledge Crimea is Russian and to eat humble pie. It would play well for Putin.
On the other hand, neither the West nor Ukraine would really have lost anything at all but pride. It would simply be bringing the de jure and de facto in line, which is generally a good thing. Few seriously believe the Ukrainian army is going to be able to retake Crimea. To do so would indicate an extremely bloody war, with very serious potential to escalate to the nuclear.
Crimea is in practice now Russian. It makes sense to base a peace deal on acknowledging this reality.
Is Crimea enough of a prize for Putin to give up all of Russia’s other gains? I believe so. There is a realistic chance that Russia could suffer humiliating loss of some of the areas it holds. Much better to negotiate them away while you have them.
Could Zelensky survive giving up the Crimea? Well, his personal prestige is now enormous. His people are brave but would welcome an end to the war, and the number of Ukrainians still in Crimea is now low. In return for getting back all of the Donbass lost in 2014 plus Kherson and Mariupol, and getting an end to the war, I think it is not impossible for Zelensky to sell giving up the Crimea as the price of peace.
The Donbass was of course Putin’s given reason for invasion. It would be hard for Putin to give up Donbass because it is central to his consistent programme of bringing Russophone areas of ex-Soviet states into Russia. But his domestic position in a long war would weaken if not successful. Given guarantees on Crimea and an end to ruinous war and sanctions, I think he could accept it after negotiation, with a number of figleafs.
It is worth noting that a bilateral agreement is not possible. Any agreement is going to need to involve a much wider group of parties, on for examples the lifting of sanctions and recognition of Russian annexation of Crimea.
So here is a start to my proposed bundle:
Ukraine to cede Crimea to Russia
Russia to hand back all other occupied Ukrainian territory
A devolution settlement for Donbass
Russian again to be an official language in Ukraine
Ukraine to be acknowledged as a sovereign state free to join NATO or EU if it chooses
An Arms Control Treaty restricting weapons systems in Ukraine and neighbouring Russia
An end to all EU and US sanctions on Russia imposed following the invasion
A joint War Crimes Commission, and Truth and Reconciliation process, but immunities for agreed persons (including Putin)
An international fund for reconstruction, including provision for relocation assistance for Russian speakers wishing to leave Donbass or Ukrainians wishing to leave Crimea.
Now here is the moral dilemma. If you want to insist on no immunity for war crimes, you would need to be willing to pursue total war to the utter defeat of one side. You cannot get a peace deal that involves putting Putin on trial at the Hague. Equally neither side can get all it wants on any subject without total victory.
Peace otherwise means compromise.
When discussing Cyprus with Kofi Annan, we agreed any peace deal would involve Turkey giving up some land in proportion to its percentage of population. The possibilities were Morphou or Karpass. We realised that this land deal would need to entail some assistance with population relocation of those who wished to move. It is often impossible to resolve a geographic conflict without some element that can be portrayed as endorsement of ethnic cleansing. These are the problems of peace.
I do hope that gives you some material for your own thought. It will no more interest the partisans on either side than it currently does those in power. Thus I sadly expect the killing to continue. I am off to Turkey tomorrow for a briefing on the limited peace talks that have taken place to date. That does not mean I will necessarily be able to spread information further at this stage.
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I just checked Moon of Alabama, Larry Johnson’s A Son of the American Revolution and Andrei Martyanov’s Reminiscences of the Future blogs and discovered all three are discussing the news that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin contacted Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and “urged” him to agree to a ceasefire.
As those blogs say (keeping a straight face as much as they can), since when do nations that are winning wars or at least prevailing against invaders request/urge/demand ceasefires?
One source I have read says the Ukrainians have been losing soldiers at the rate of 10,000 a month. The last report I have seen from a Russian Defence Ministry source said that over 23,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and/or were MIA. The Russians are also reportedly taking in huge numbers of Ukrainian POWs through capture or surrender.
At this point, if both Russia and Ukraine did agree to a ceasefire and then negotiated a peace agreement, it would be one in which Ukraine would have to agree to federalism at the very least or allowing eastern and southern Ukraine including Odessa to go their separate ways either as independent nations or as part of the Russian Federation.
There go CM’s assertions that Russia is being weakened militarily and that Russia should agree to give back the Donbass to Ukraine.
” Russian Defence Ministry ” Probably as reliable as the Ukrainian estimates of Russian dead and MIA.
So what? You’re admitting now that the Ukrainian narrative is not to be believed, which is not your previous position.
Just their estimates of Russian casualties. These are notoriously impossible to get right. Do you believe the Russian figure?
The greater problem is the Ukrainian figures, as you admit.
No I said they were likely to be equally unreliable.
As the Ukrainians are making much greater claims, that’s the same thing.
It’s not Russia restricting information! But the English elected government, military and the media and Tory government!
Between 400 – 700 Ukrainians are dying a day, for what? Russia has the right to its own security, if America is that juiced up for war…….. Russia is only fifty miles away……go on you American keyboard warriors ….. knock yourself out!
Now you are going in the right direction. Just keep going.
and you’re not paying attention. As per usual.
”When discussing Cyprus with Kofi Annan, we agreed any peace deal would involve Turkey giving up some land in proportion to its percentage of population.”
Do you mean the populations as they were in 1974, or as they are now with much Turkish immigration from the mainland?
Obviously they looked into their crystal ball and based it on populations now. What point are you trying to make?
. Tonight, the “public” vote made Ukraine win Eurovision.
Well….. Will the Military Intervention be completed by the time they must hold next years contest? Who will pay? WHO? Wow. My thinking this would happen has been overtaken by the utter fools that voted for them…
Yeah, cheers. Even we (UK) don’t need the expense, but Ukraine???!!!! Am almost laughing, not in a good way :(((((
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[ Mod: Off topic. Craig’s article concerns diplomatic steps towards a peace agreement in Ukraine. The implications of a public vote for the staging of an international music competition in a conflict zone has little bearing on that issue.
You can post comments about the Eurovision Song Contest (or any other tangential issue) in the discussion forum. Any comments about moderation should be posted in the Blog Support forum, rather than in topical threads. Thanks. ]
Thank you for posting this news here. I would otherwise have been unaware of it, just as I was unaware of the Discussion Forum. As I suppose most other readers here are unaware of it.
Cheers Lysias. I wasn’t either. Am old & it’s bad enough having to avoid the antagonising orange up arrow (situated in my scroll zone, that forces me to tediously scroll back down yet again…) than attempt to find anywhere else on here! Thoughtless design.
I doubt if the current situation would have come about without the nazification of the Ukrainian state and others on the way it seems. It isn’t just some football hooligan gangs – we all have these; or some fascist political groups. This is gangsterism writ large, armed and trained by nato and probably commanded too. Using nazism and anti communist C20th monstering.
It is out and out racist anti Russianism. There is no denying it.
Nazis are anti Russian and using them is the only way we can think of ‘winning’ Russia.
They are clearly our proxies in Europe as Isis are in Syria.
It is being spread throughout the west. It is mob madness.
Everything from Tchaikovsky to the puppet Meercats adverts selling a comparison web site. Did they kill that brand!
And tonight the spectacle of Eurovision. Which we all know has been a fixed event for decades.
There was even a classic Father Ted episode about it.
Good night all and god speed your endeavours Mr Murray, I look forward to your reporting.
An incoherent rant.
The Putin regime uses the term Nazi to denigrate their opponents.
While whipping up ultra nationalist sentiment by real fascists like Dugin. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
Dugin is just one example.
John Kinsella
There are plenty of nazi brigades in Ukraine – not to mention Ukraine’s biggest hero are Stephan Bandera – a person that were a fascist and worked with the nazis, exterminating jews, poles, slavs, roma people during world war 2 and beyond that -, for example you can not possibly have missed that the soldiers trapped in Azovstal are from the nazi regiment of Azov.
You just need to check their emblem
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Azov_Battalion_and_SS_Emblems_And_Symbols.jpg
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[ Mod: Jack, your enquiry about commenting problems was removed as it isn’t directly relevant to the article topic. You’re welcome to repost it in the Blog Support forum, though. ]
Bandera was a shit who collaborated with the Nazis and murdered thousands. He isn’t, however, a national hero in Ukraine.
Stalin, on the other hand, was a shit who collaborated with the Nazis and murdered millions. He is, however, a national hero in Russia.
John Kinsella
No he is a hero in western Ukraine – not in the eastern region though, even naming streets and putting up statues of him! Zelensky himself have praised him. This not a fringe man, he is very much hailed in the modern Ukraine I am sorry to say.
I thought the 1st of January in Ukraine honours him ( Bandara ) and there’s a statue of him in Ukraine ( lviv ) .. that’s sounds like he’s honoured to me
Similar charges could also be raised against the British Royal Family, the Irish Government during WW2 and maybe even Churchill ?
Stalin gets a bad, and biased, press in the West, I wonder why ?
And, if we are talking about murdering millions, what about Korea and Vietnam or even the indigenous peoples of America ?
John Kinsella, Stalin was Georgian … not Russian, so your point is bullshxt.
Yeah, and Neville Chamberlain too was a shit who collaborated with the Nazis.
Bandera spent most of WWII in a Nazi prison-cell.
No he didn’t – he spent a brief period in prison and then was released to continue his out-nazi-ing of the Nazis.
Six months under house arrest followed by two years in Sachsenhausen. I wouldn’t call that ‘brief’.
JK what’s incoherent about it?
And if you think that was a rant and it being Sunday please be shitted for a off the cuff sermon.
I wrote earlier citing ‘Lolita Express Willy’ Clinton’s winning trick :
‘Doh – it’s about the Nazis – stoopid’ .
The fucking cowardly white child who massacred unarmed civilians with no warning in the mass shooting in Buffalo supermarket whilst live streaming it IS exactly the same kind of Nazi as are enrolled officially into the Ukrainian state.
Is Ursula clutching her pearl in mock horror?
is the Guardian leading it with clips of dead people or photos of these being shot as is widely published on their beloved social media narrative feeding? Is there a full scale media invasion of the UN experts and talk of the Butcher of Buffalo?
Are there sanctions on the US government for such an atrocity?
A Nazi atrocity in that country of easy murder?
I’m sure there are such Nazis in the western forces – they occasionally get too public and a few get booted out to go do whatever mischief they want ‘privately’ they don’t get jailed! They are just the reservoir rats who are dying in their ratsnest Azovstal begging to be ‘extracted’ to a neutral country rather than surrender as is what happens in a conflict. Begging the pope with a Nazi slut and porn actor, Extraction not surrender! Ever heard of such bullshit in a battle? It’s some kind of PR whiz word ‘extraction’ probably from our poncey english PR whizzes.
The Buffalo white power terrorist freak had his agenda on his live page. He also displayed the ‘black sun’ Nazi symbol. Had the words ‘N****r’ and ‘Monkeee’ and numerals ‘14’ on his gun as he proudly drove up and started shooting black and asian peoples.
What does your man Dugin have to say about that?
Yeah – it’s the Fucking Nazis, they are everywhere in the West and even in Russia but organised trained supplied and commanded ONLY IN Ukraine by nato countries and the MSM and it seems some readers here, don’t give a flying fuck about how that’s come about and why is it encouraged on social media? Whilst a simple anti Nazi sentiment gets someone ‘cancelled’ just like innocent TOY PUPPET MEERKATS and the Canadian brand vodka Smirnoff, which any fool should know came via a UKRANIAN who brought it to AMERICA where it first became a commercial success as an advertising creation of ‘white odourless whisky’. Elensky and idiots have also attempted to cancel the letter Z – as in Zorro.
I bet if the Second World War was equally narratively managed we would be expected to be crying over the storming of Berlin by the Red Army and the poor wee Nazis in their Bunker – there’s civilians and kiddies there! Being fed poison by their parents. The Nazis.
Amen!
@DunGroaning: a stream of consciousness then.
A Gish Gallop if you like.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop
In Ukraine, as in Russia, there are far right elements.
However the power of the nationalist far right in Russia is far greater.
Russia is not a democracy; there is no free press , elections are rigged and opposition leaders are jailed on trumped up charges.
Oh yes, Russia has invaded its neighbours several times in the last decade.
Ukraine; not so much.
John Kinsella
Neo-nazis parties are banned in Russia, meanwhile they are supported like something normal in Ukraine, And it is not only Azov brigade.
Here you have Ukraine’s presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych with the leader of Ukraine’s Nazi Terror Unit C14 Yevhen Karas, also known as ‘Vortex’
https://twitter.com/HandstreichAS/status/1523895167954178048
There are no free press nor opposition in Ukraine, Zelensky banned much of that already in 2021. That is also why peace is struggling in Ukraine because there are simply no parties, media that are allowed to even propose that Ukraine should end war with a peace treaty. Case in point are also the Minsk agreements that Zelensky have rejected out of hand.
John Kinsella
Russia is not a democracy.
Whereas Britain is , because it imports all its goods from China and all its opinions from America. It is quite astonishing when war is raging a few hundred miles away in Ukraine about the future of our trade with China and the future of our subordination to America, that all we Brits can think of saying is that we want everything to stay exactly the same.
If this complete intellectual and creative inertia is democracy, in which the nation of shopkeepers merely sells, instead of making things and making opinions of its own I hate democracy.
Democracy is not just thinking and creating what you’re told.
OTOH:
‘The West’ is not a democracy; there is no free press , elections are rigged and opposition leaders are jailed on trumped up charges.
Oh yes, ‘the West’ has invaded its neighbours and non-neighbours virtually every year since WW2.
Contrast the treatment of Alexei Navalny by Russia with the treatment of Julian Assange by the UK, or the treatment of the Skripals by Russia with their treatment by the UK. And, let’s not mention Guantanamo Bay.
The USA, UK and Canada, to mention three, explicitly trained the Ukrainian Nazi forces – this information is in the public domain – as well as funding them and supplying them with Armaments and intelligence support.
This is exactly what the West did for ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
The West also arranged transport for ISIS fighters to participate in the fighting in Ukraine.
If ‘we’ were really fighting a war on terror then bombing Washington and Westminster would be a good place to start !!
Did anyone watch the so called “Munk debate” that was aired the other day?
It was about Ukraine and on the one side you had neocons John McFaul (former US ambassador to Russia), and Radoslaw Sikorski (former foreign/defense minister of Poland).
On the other side you had Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer, political realist theorists “famous” for pointing out that developing Nato membership for Ukraine caused this war.
Here one can watch the debate:
Radosław Sikorski – kanał oficjalny: The Munk Debate – The Russia Ukraine War, Toronto, 12.05.2022 – YouTube (1h 42m 42s)
Although the debate was quite nonsensical, mostly because the neocons kept interrupting the other side, it was, however, telling what kind of arguments the neocons used:
and so on.
These views sum up the Western view of the conflict. Arrogance and ignorance lead the West, not rationality.
Jack (answering your comment on my post re Bandera).
Bandera is honoured by some in Ukraine for his support for Ukrainian nationhood. They presumably try to overlook his collaboration with the Nazis.
On the other hand Stalin is honoured by the Russian state. Which ignores his collaboration with the Nazis and his murder of millions of Ukrainians and Russians.
Sauce goose, sauce gander…
Stalin led his nation to total victory over a deadly savage foe that had come to extinguish it utterly.
You’re comparing a Saint Bernard to a rat, not a goose to a gander.
John Kinsella, here’s some “Sauce goose, sauce gander…” for your anti-Russian claims:
1. “Russia is not a democracy; there is no free press”, but ‘Western’ MSM billionaire owned, intelligence service mouthpieces / propaganda outlets don’t constitute of a “free press” either, nor does jailing Assange;
2. “[…] elections are rigged”, but FPTP in UK and corporate campaign funding in USA are both 99.9% rigged too;
3. “[…] and opposition leaders are jailed on trumped up charges.” No need in the UK & USA as any opposition whatsoever to Neo-liberalism (see Blair & K. Starmer) is exterminated by corrupt media / biased (practically) unanimous political discourse, e.g. see Corbyn, and newly minted war monger B. Sanders.
Also see Saudi Arabia, no1 UK / USA ally, vital oil supplier, and warmongers in Yemen, for their record locking up / murdering opposition voices. And Israeli brutality to Palestinians is hardly an example to show up Russian political / national / institutional / democratic / media freedom shortfalls.
@Natasha. I’m not at all anti Russian. You should withdraw that allegation if you cannot justify it.
I’m certainly anti-Soviet and opposed to the murderous Putin regime.
Why do you think so many Russians have left Russia in the last 20 years?
I had two Russian colleagues in a small 25 person academic department where I worked.
And that is not at all unusual here in Ireland.
We do have free elections here too, don’t you in Britain?
People are not arrested in Europe (maybe in pro Putin Hungary?) for dissing the Government.
In Putin’s Russia people get dragged away by his goons for holding up the page from the Russian Constitution that guarantees freedom of speech and assembly.
So do you live in Britain or perhaps St Petersburg?
Haven’t seen Russians arriving in London for at least 10 years now. During 90’s and 00’s they were as plenty full as the the other young kids flocking in from Eastern and Central Europe. Used to employ a few. They were great workers. Harder than most Irish and worked reliably.
It’s another lie that they are still leaving. Many did settle have kids in schools etc. Skilled workers were kept working through lockdown to get the buildings completed. They weren’t allowed furlough.
Now with the Rouble heading towards its best exchange rates you’ll see lots more coming – as tourists, to see the country they saved from Nazis, again. ?
People are banned in Germany for daring to want to remember the Nahkba today, no demos allowed that support the BDS campaign against fascist Israel and defo no march in support of the murdered and well loved Shireen, who reported yet another raid in Jenin.
So much to European freedom Mr. Kinsella.
I wish Craig good luck in his endeavour, if it achieves a cease fire, so vie et.
In his 15.52 post John said – by way of making a comparison between Russia and the West – that we have free elections. Well, I could answer at length, but hopefully the following will suffice:
*Jeremy Corbyn*
*GLC*
*Kinnock’s Kremlin Connection*
And just in case you’re not aware of it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loony_left
John Kinsella – why avoid the points I raise?
If Putin were gone why not be explicit that you would then support Russia?
Russian population has gone UP in the last 20 years – in 2002 was c145.2 million in 2020 its c145.8 – is that what you mean by “so many have left Russia”?
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/population
Why try to maintain the pretence the Russian Federation is more “murderous” than NATO led ‘West’ and its allies when data (see Iraq Afghanistan Syria Yugoslavia Yemen Korea Israel Saudi Arabia etc. etc…) shows the opposite?
And why fail to account for the fact that Russia has more resources, minerals land / person etc… than the rest of world put together, as if such a reason to break up Russia whether under Putin or whoever has no impact on NATO led ‘West’ motivations?
There is never going to be peace in that part of the world so long as a specifically anti-Russian military alliance is camped on Russia’s borders. In what way is that a recipe for “peace” given Russia’s repeated violation from the west? Think about it.
Why do you say that NATO (you do mean NATO?) is “specifically anti-Russian)?
When did NATO attack Russia?
So the day Russia is attacked by nato it’ll be acknowledged as anti Russian and until that day maybe Russia should view nato as zero threat !!!
Yes, using Kinsella logic consider Germany in WW2.
Germany never attacked Britain, Germany never attacked the USA, Germany never attacked …
So Germany was zero threat ?
I won’t mention that Germany was Nazi as that may be too much for some.
But Nazi Germany had attacked or at least occupied several territories before ww2.
The Saarland, Austria, Czechoslovakia… By 1939 the nature and intent of the Hitler regime was clear.
In my opinion the nature and intent of the Putin regime is also clear.
The nature and intent of the NATO (USA) regime is also clear.
I say it because I try to observe the world with honest eyes. It’s true NATO bombs, invades and destroys other countries that pose no threat to it, but it is primarily a specifically anti-Russian military alliance, dedicated to permanent, sneering antagonism of a country that has been repeatedly invaded and almost destroyed from the west.
There would be no threat of nuclear war in Europe if NATO had been disbanded in the early 90s, as the Warsaw pact was. Any number of eminent diplomats, military-intelligence officials and geopolitical analysts had warned something like this war in Ukraine would be the eventual upshot of NATO expansion to Russia’s borders. No British or American leader would have put up with an equivalent threat and antagonism as long as Putin did.
the moment they reneged on their promise not to expand, which was an underhand lie as they’d already spend 4 decades of supporting Ukraines nazification Mr. Kinsella. Do keep up.
Despite Putin asking for talks on long term Russian/Europes security, the cloth ears shut their minds. ‘ Fcuk the EU’ and war in Europe means big bucks for the US and their poodles, thats why Zelenski is being told to let his soldiers die.
“Russia hands back all other Ukrainian territory, including the Donbass” and Russians can keep Crimea.
I’m staggered that Craig thinks that is remotely viable.
Russia already had Crimea and giving back the whole of the Donbass would go backwards re. Putin’s stated objectives, which have already cost Russian blood and treasure. Putin would not survive such a deal politically.
A deal in this situation would not be that hard for the West or Russia to swallow compared to many other conflicts because the Russians have have already said what they want as a route to peace. Seven or 8 years ago a UNSC resolution was signed to bring peace and give the Donbass some autonomy. There could have been peace before this even started but the West, including Boris, gave two fingers to Putin’s entreaties. Boris personally gave Zelensky the message, “do a deal and you’re dead” Obey your paymasters and keep sending your men to the meat grinder .
A deal, could look like: Give the Donbass full independence with the deal that they dont join the Russian Federation before that ship sails. Ukraine agree some kind of neutrality and maybe, maybe you could get the Russians to give back some of the south coast.
The problem though is that the Ukraine is completely under American puppet string control and the absolute last thing the US/UK wants is peace. They want a world financial reset and control of the debt and MIC profits and outright creaming off by super-corrupt individuals of the pallets and pallets of dollars shipped to Kiev. IMO they also want complete control of “Europe” its policy and its treasure.
Truly evil if ever that word could be defined, those that control Wetern/US policy have taken over a country, placed a puppet/clown mouthpiece as its head, engineered this war, starting with the coup in 2014, financing facist racist beyond ultra-right, muscle, who actively worship Himmler and function like the Waffen SS, they emulate.
Nothing like peace will be achieved until the West, including the pariah US, faces reality and that won’t happen until it gets through its death throes. Either that or Learn to love being vaporized Armageddon will end this.
“Boris personally gave Zelensky the message, “do a deal and you’re dead” “
Any evidence for this claim?
It looks to me like intp1 elaborates on this theme here:
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/05/nato-expansion-and-turkey/comment-page-1/#comment-1019209
I agree. I cannot understand Mr Murray’s thinking on the Donbass. It would be curtains for the Donbass freedom fighters if Russia withdrew, What would be the plan. Demilitarised zone/buffer policed by UN. Nope, it is not Cyprus. USA admitting strategy is to bleed Russia and permanently weaken the Putin state. That fact alone blows the, lets all get along and negotiate tactic, out the water. Zelinski was elected on a platform for negotiation. Does not seem to be his true intention.
I think Craig’s plan is viable, if and only if, Russia gets the US to agree to Ukraine agreeing the Minsk Protocols and a federal nature of the state of Ukraine.
The White House Briefing Room: ASEAN-U.S. Special Summit 2022, Joint Vision Statement (May 13, 2022)
President of Russia: Meeting on Economic Issues (12 May 2022)
Interesting that yesterday’s joint statement issued by the White House following the US/ASEAN meeting, contains no direct reference to Russia, and covers their aspirations regarding the Ukraine war in a single rather mealy-mouthed paragraph.
I guess this reflects more the East Asian attitude, which is in direct contradiction with the US polity, which is ready to authorise an incremental $40bill on arms for Ukraine, in order to “weaken Russia” using the poor Ukrainians as cannon fodder ( but only if Rand Paul would drop his demand for audit and oversight of the gravy train! )
Meanwhile Austin at the US military is calling Shoigu to plead for ceasefire, and Zelensky has issued a decree prohibiting Ukrainian soldiers from complaining about the ineffectiveness of NATO armaments.
And the various EU parties are in disarray over Russian energy sanctions, whilst the Kremlin reports continuing improvements in Russia’s economics.
Hopefully it’s game over soon. It could have been so much less expensive for everyone, if Zelensky had been allowed to carry out his electoral mandate and implement the Minsk accords!
I read the comments here and it sounds as if most are so anti-British that they are blind to Russia’s faults. It’s not just been Ukraine. There was Grozny before.
The British establishment was lauding Putin when he was flattening Grozny. They didn’t give a toss. The only well known public figure of today who condemned Putin for it was the anti-British Putin-apologist Jeremy Corbyn.
Does anti British foreign policy = anti British !!
I see Russia’s faults but I simultaneously see their foreign policy as more responsive than instigative .. but that’s just me
Let’s be honest. The majority of the British parliament (Left, right, whatever) is a collection of corrupt, incompetent, liars. They are true enemies of the british people, our economy and our way of life. They don’t represent me. I love my country but it’s being destroyed by the enemy within. Stating the truth is not Anti British, it is very British – that is why the government is bringing in laws to prevent free speech and public protest. Wake up.
Fwl
The US eventually adopted the same zero tolerance of Iraqi and Syrian islamist terrorism which they had created to grab Iraqi oil as Russia had against Chechnyan Islamist terrorism. Before long they will change course destroy the Ukranian Neo Nazis they created to fight this proxy war against Russia.
Do the Ukranians still think Covert action for the US overlords is social work?
If a peace deal can be negotiated it will need popular support. I am still amazed at the lack of commitment here to any kind of support for peace, too many posters make it clear they would rather suck up to one side or the other. Madness.
A while back our host castigated the left for their position on this war, claiming both lack of criticism for Russia, and opposition to NATO, EU and the US. …I’m sorry Craig, but I don’t see you as an expert on the left in any way, shape or form. Confusing the liberal elite with anything left is crap on stilts.
Let us remember a lesson of history from the eve of the First World War. The International Socialist movement of the day split, with Social Democrats voting for their respective countries war financing. In the UK, that was the Labour Party.
As to the rest of you, I ask once again, are you for peace, or war…_
Simon Hefner (not on my xmas card list) writes a very informative piece in today’s Sunday Telegraph.
(Paywalled) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/15/putins-disastrous-war-exposed-folly-macrons-eu-army/
A Simon Heffer fan lecturing people.
Is this Simon Heffer the same as the famous Simon Heffer historian and biographer, the man who wrote the first draft of notorious piece in the Spectator attributed to our PM, Boris, about the behaviour of Liverpool fans during the Hillsborough disaster (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Heffer) Because if it is I think the views of this particular armchair general might not have much credibility.
A peace deal that involves the death of innocent civilians is as unpalatable as war.
I doubt there will be a peace agreement, at some point there will be a ceasefire. Once Russia has liberated Donbass the only possible sovereignty solution would be a Kosovo-style agreement with Russia taking on the role of NATO. I don’t think Ukraine is going to renounce Crimea even as a quid-pro-quo for the complete evacuation of Donbass (which the people of Donbass would see as a massive betrayal).
Russia will be looking for a Caporetto moment before they send out more peace feelers
> liberated Donbass
That’s “liberated” as in “someone liberated my car”, right?
Only if you need to wheelclamp your car to prevent it parking itself in your neighbour’s driveway
The people of Donbass did vote for self rule on the 11 May 2014 from Kiev so I guess liberated means giving the reclaimed by Kiev territory back to self rule
Sorry, but there can’t be an iota of legitimacy in any poll or plebiscite conducted under military occupation.
When I researched this I didn’t see or consider for example Mariupol to be under military occupation when they had their referendum …
Really? What about elections in Iraq and Afghanistan when under NATO occupation? What about Bosnia?
Who was occupying Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014?
Any information on who organised the plebiscite?
Were there any international observers?
Did opponents of independence/secession from Ukraine have an opportunity to present their case?
John, I dare say it may not have been the highest quality plebiscite. OTOH despite making binding commitments to do so, Ukraine failed to hold a single poll in Donbass between 2015 and 2022.
Were there any international observers there to create legitimacy .. no ( maybe deliberately ) but that doesn’t show the outcome is incorrect but doesn’t ensure it’s correct , maybe it was similar numbers to Crimea : 83% turnout , 97% in favour , it is plausible Donbas didn’t want to be part of Ukraine by a majority ( nice debate – thanks )
The funny thing is, those who criticize the referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk never suggest to organize new referendums, with international observers and Jimmy Carter as a special guest of honor. Why? Because they know what the outcome will be.
There are some excellently thought out comments on your proposed peace plan here, which of course is presently just the plan of a fond imaging. The US/UK don’t want peace, that is not the aim of this conflict. The idea is the same as usual, neocons are nothing if not predictable, that Russia will get so bogged down in interminable war that it will, as happened in Afghanistan, have to retreat and fail. That’s what sanctions are supposed to do, but have never worked anytime or anywhere (except perhaps S Africa) The problem with this US neocon thesis is that the US / UK / Europe are more vulnerable than Russia now. Of all the world’s larger economies, Russia’s is probably the most secure. It has a modestly populated huge landmass with much of the world’s most precious and untapped resources that are rocketing upwards in value. it has a nearly self-sufficient economy, It has a coherent society that is compliant, and is used to coping with hardship and collective action and autocratic but functional institutions that are capable of taking rational directive action. (for instance their central bank response to sanctions) . The Western societies and economies on the other hand are existing on a precipice of unplayable debt, have an effete, entitled and contentious populations and governments of idle incompetence. As much as anything this is an economic war on Russia, that Russia will win. The ground war Russia already won when it first invaded.
Craig, your negotiated solution is probably as good as anyones, though I think you are guilty of wishful thinking that Russia would allow Ukraine any sort of ownership of the Donbas. My greatest fear is that so much political capital has been expended in the West that we won’t be able to backtrack or agree on anything less than Russia’s total capitulation, and will have to keep escalating this economic and physical war to our mutual assured economic or physical destruction.
Its true that our discussions and arguments are from a western puffy white soft cloud, comfortable in leather chair by fireplace with bookshelves and spines decorating the walls. A to and fro about legality and morality. UN or not to UN. To the ninty percent of the population of the world however minus their elites and our drawing rooms, its Rank Hypocrisy. They have had no UN support or Legality, only Invasions and domination. They see Russia as the first country in decades to stand up and dare to ‘Confront’ the ten percent of the world population who have ninty percent of the wealth (extorted from their lands). The tables are turned, the paper tiger impotent. Where were the Palestinian flags outside country pubs and We stand by Palestine slogans? As to War Crimes and War Criminals…. Numbers of Civilians killed… there is no comparison. For hundreds of years it was always Might is Right a Uni Polar World Order. The change to a Multi Polar World is very suddenly upon us, much quicker than even Michael Hudson predicted. Yes, the Ninty Percent of the World Population can’t wait for us to leave them and their resources, and put out our own house in order. Like it or not, they are with Putin !
Re: ‘The ground war Russia already won when it first invaded.’
Feel free to bring yourself up to speed courtesy of Jomini, John.
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1525541738147991554
I’ve also replied to your reply on page 1 of these comments, if you haven’t already seen it.
I wonder if Mr Murray can see any similarity between the atrocious and cynical UK actions in whatever Stan he was the Ambassador for and which led to the untimely and unwarranted end of his diplomatic career and the atrocious and unwarranted interference by the UK and USA in Ukraine. If Zelinski was taking decisions based on what was in the best interests of his country then he would have sued for the best peace deal he could get. He didn’t do that. When this is all over and it dawns on the Ukrainians what Zelinski did I suspect he and his millions will be sunning it up in a third country. Russia is not really dealing with Zelinski I suspect but is engaged in a proxy war with USA making the important decisions. By the way some of my posts have had some editing. If that is your moderators then that is fine.
A more blinkered view of reality than one would expect from the BBC, your readership is above this
I am sorry but these two statements are contradictory.
“Ukraine to be acknowledged as a sovereign state free to join NATO or EU if it chooses
An Arms Control Treaty restricting weapons systems in Ukraine and neighbouring Russia”
The whole point of joining NATO is to abandon all restrictions on what weapons you can choose to have in your country as this will depend on the NATO leadership and in other words subject to the will of the US. Also membership of NATO is incompatible with being a sovereign state in practice. Arms controls treaties have on the whole proven worthless. IN fact the best answer is that suggested by Russia at the beginning, a neutrality and mutual security pact between Ukraine and probably also other neighboring country but outside of NATO, underwritten by the UN.
“I am off to Turkey tomorrow for a briefing on the limited peace talks that have taken place to date. “
Is it fair to ask in what capacity Mr Murray will be acting in Turkey, who is giving the briefing and who is funding his trip ?
Just saying.
Robert Wursthaus. As an Independent Journalist who travels the world as Robert Fisk did. “Just saying “
NOT State or Corporate Media sponsored
The War in Ukraine and the Collapsing World Order
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrMJoRDfRFI
Today Finland has formally informed Putin of her intention to join NATO, which contravenes Article 4 of their 1948 accord, and further ignores Russia’s demands made last December for a European security pact.
From around the 13:50 mark of this interview from a few weeks ago, Scott Ritter argues that the time for diplomacy between the West and Russia / China has unfortunately passed, that Russia will destroy Finland in the event it joins NATO, like it is doing in Ukraine, and that China will take advantage of the West’s weakness to make a move on Taiwan.
Hot summer and a cold winter ahead.
Russia will not need to invade Finland to protect ethnic Russians, as in Ukraine. If Finland allows any foreign troops, trainers, infrastructure, missiles and bases in – then, whether in Nato or not, it will just use conventional missiles. It can’t allow US missiles a stones throw away from St Petersburg. As UK wouldn’t allow Russian missiles in an Independent Scotland to be based in Faslane. As US wouldn’t allow Russian missiles in Mexico. No Referendum in Sweden or Finland ?!? Nor in Taiwan !?
Come to think of it, has any government asked its population in a Referendum if it wanted to join Nato ? Stupid thought, if a mass propgandised and censored population votes for Ukraine in Eurovision ….outcome guaranteed.
It is indeed noticeable that the political elites in Sweden and Finland appear to be determined not to allow their respective peoples a say in these epic changes to the status of their countries. So much for the “Democratic West”.
The only reason can be that they fear the result of allowing them a say.
We can only hope that these political elites are not leading their peoples to disaster.
It looks to most people, the pressure to join came from below.
But, but, but, …
The UK, a member of NATO, hosts American nuclear arms, allows nuclear bombers to operate out of the UK, allows USA drones to be operated from the UK and supports rendition flights for the CIA.
So, Finland and Sweden will be doing the similar.
NATOs whole reason for existence is to destroy Russia. Time to destroy NATO ?
“So, Finland and Sweden will be doing the similar.”
I suppose if depends if they allow themselves to be occupied by US troops.
> It can’t allow US missiles a stones throw away from St Petersburg.
St. Petersburg happens to be a stone’s throw from a sovereign foreign country. Are you saying that powerful nations have authority to give permission for the defense arrangements of their nearby neighbours? That’s the “great powers, zones of influence” doctrine that Putin is obsessed with. That same doctrine led to invasions of Czechoslovakia and Hungary. It’s an imperialist doctrine.
We no longer live in a world where only the actual firing of weapons represents a sufficient challenge to a nation’s security to constitute maximum peril. Nuclear weapons are so destructive, and ballistic missiles so swift, that any substantially increased possibiity of their use or any sudden change in their deployment may well be regarded as a definite threat to peace.
—
Vladimir Putin— John F Kennedy
The 1948 Soviet-Finnish Treaty is a dead letter. It was replaced in 1992. How am I not surprised that Ritter doesn’t know this?
” Russia will destroy Finland …. like it is doing in Ukraine, ” So the Finns don’t really have much to worry abut.
“The 1948 Soviet-Finnish Treaty is a dead letter. It was replaced in 1992. How am I not surprised that Ritter doesn’t know this?”
Just wondering, is there a source where it says that the 1948 treaty has expired or was replaced? There is nothing in the 1992 treaty — unless I missed something.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/1992-09-01/finland-vindicated
Plenty of other sources.
This link at least does not load properly 🙁
Could you just quote the relevant section? I understand that for a bilateral treaty to be obsoleted it must be signed by both parties, so there should be something?
” Finland and Russia signed a friendship treaty in Helsinki on January 20, 1992, consisting of many clauses, including commercial and financial ones. More significant was the exchange of notes that same day. These certified the cancellation of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance signed in Moscow on April 6, 1948. That treaty, the result of the Soviet victory in the Second World War, established the limitations of an independent Finnish foreign policy and, indeed, certain conditions of Finnish independence itself. “
Not enough for you?
Thanks for pulling that out.
“More significant was the exchange of notes that same day. These certified the cancellation of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance signed in Moscow on April 6, 1948. “
Where did it certify? It seems to be an opinion of the commenter, unfortunately. To my understanding, if a treaty supersedes another one it should say so. Which the 1992 treaty does not. Also, if there are some binding notes and agreements they should be referenced explicitly by the commenter (which is quite vague here.)
To me as a non legally trained person, the claim that the 1948 treaty was cancelled cannot stand by what I see.
Imagine Mr Murray if you will…that you are prime minister of an independent Scotland. That instead of the Scottish frontier being , for instance the line of Hadrian’s wall, instead it follows the Tweed and that Hawick and the Borders find themselves under English rule,… To which they object and which leads to their insurrection. Would you as Prime Minister of Scotland cede the Borders to HMG as a reasonable peace proposal?
Knowing full well the exaction they would suffer for their rebellion?
” That instead of the Scottish frontier being , for instance the line of Hadrian’s wall”
The scottish frontier has never followed the line of Hadrians Wall.
http://heninen.net/sopimus/1992_e.htm
English translation of the referenced 1992 treaty between Finland and The Russian Federation.
Yes, and in the 1992 Treaty on the Basis for Relations, Article 4 suggests
“The Parties shall not use or allow the use of their territory for armed aggression against the other Party.”
It also makes no reference to its relation to the 1948 agreement, which as Ritter pointed out, posited that Finland’s neutrality would be ‘in perpetuity’.
I think the 1948 treaty is kind of moot. It’s easy for those inclined to make the argument that given one of the state entities to that agreement no longer exists that treaty is null and void and has no relevance to today.
I have followed events in the Donbass pretty closely these last 8 years. Seen what has happened in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk, Lugansk and Mariupol to name a few. These were all started by the horrific events in Odessa.
Craig I still have not heard you mention the DPR and LNR and their views.
The propaganda and pure lies of are media are insane at the moment.
One very small example.. Natalia Usmanova was interviewed after her extraction from Avozstal in which part of was aired by most Western outlets showing how terrified she was of Russian strikes and how she must hate them for it.
If they showed the full interview it would have showed her say that they were not allowed to leave and that her and her family have now turned their backs on Ukraine because of how they were treated. “Ukraine has died for me as a state”
Like the reports on Douma the western press will now never report honestly or go to Mariupol themselves.
The Donbass will never be Ukrainian again.
No peace deal will have that included.
The Ukrainian Nazis are now so ingrained into the SBU, Military and pivotal governmental positions that any relinquishing of majority Russian speaking territory would result in terrible consequences. Bucha was mostly Ukrainian speaking and look what happened to some of them in the ‘cleansing operations’
I said at the start that there will be a Novorussiya again and nothing I have seen has changed my mind.
In a world of rational human beings, Mr Murray’s proposal would be eminently sensible. But we don’t live in that world. This is a fight to the death between Western political resolve and Russia’s tolerance for Vladimir Putin. Ordinarily, the smart money would be on Putin, but the Ukraine invasion has sparked a prairie blaze in the West, and I personally would not give more than a tenner for Putin’s chances.
As we head to the denouement – are you hearing the surrender woes? A final reflection on this great article.
Giving back territory and remaining strong is what a healthy nation does. Not being an Empire is not existential. Some Empires haven’t accepted that yet. Ahem.
Russia gave up the Soviets and central and Eastern European’s already once and they can do so again.
But there’s a red line or two . The Red Army’s victory over nazism and the 25 odd million dead of theirs in defeating Nazis.
There may be a remote possibility of Ukraine surrendering with the worst destruction ever seen ;There is zero chance of Russia EVER surrendering never mind unconditionally.
Why would they accept a peace that allows such sentiment as the same old Nazis within a state as a neighbour?
I doubt they want to have to do it all over again in another generation. And with the losses of this Operation joining the millions before – there is no way the Russian psyche is going to have any doubts about their ability, fortitude, success and justice.
It’s us deaf dumb and blind minions of the Old World who are to be retreated to our old roles of serfs serving our ancient Aristos. Made poorer very fast to stop us demanding the better lives won by the post war social contract. Now eagerly sold off by mass hypnosis and addiction to the soma of the media Narrative Control.
If Putin is a power hoarding ruler – what does that make dear ole Lizzie who we are all directed to celebrate her 70th year on the throne as the ruler of England and its dominions? To be passed onto another unelected ‘royal’?
Oh dear.
Nazis everywhere that you look?
No Russky Mir boys in Moscow?
All good?
Aye right..
Gosh you are easily triggered ain’t ya? Ever thought about critical thinking JK? I can be disappointed by Russian leaders and spooks as much as I can by Bozo Starmer Kuensbergs Po(W)les & Dearloves of our state apparatus and still love My fellow Britons and the Russian peoples sacrifices against Nazism – fooled as they are by endless propaganda.
How about actually engaging in the conversation you know for arguments sake? You can have a zeros post one or upto 5 post one.
You haven’t actually responded to anything I said.
Thanks for introducing me to ‘Russkiy Mir Day’, June 12th is not far off now, I had great fun enjoying my first Immortal Regiment day on the 9th May.
I’ve not heard of it before, but then again I don’t know about Russias 160 ethnic groups or any thing of some 100 languages they speak there.
Given that it is their ‘Founding Day’ from the dissolution of the USSR and was made so, collectively by its first Douma in 1990, it seems as apt as the 4th July Independence Day Yankees get super excited by forever.
I understand they play games like tug of war? I’ll take a sheet down to the park for our annual picnic and games day.
It’ll be great for de-programming friends from their unthinking support of Nazis of Ukraine. Their unthinking belief in MSM bs.
Like waking up stage hypnotised people who were convinced the onion they ate was a juicy apple! Who are a minority as were the Nazis of Germany.
WE live in a COUP state against a Corbyn government and now it is time to lance that suppurating rancid boil -Time to denazify the U.K. fascist adventure. I see Kit Klarenberg is on the case this morning.
???
With respect,
1. The Turkish and Cypriot was the resolution of EOKA and EokaB. Nico Sampson and Turkish American collusion.
2. Russia had no choice, 102,000 American force of mercenaries, NATO officers and Nazi forces of Ukraine ready and willing to overthrow the Donbas military with force on or near the first of May, the start line in Mariupol, Russia struck first.
3. The opportunity of America and Europe to use the diplomacy route for more than twenty years was kicked into touch and forced Russia to act in the manner it was manipulated by England France and England.
Highlander
Russia has not been forced at all . Russia has prepared for this historic confrontation.
Give Putin the credit for preparing his country for this moment. It is the West that has finally been forced to negotiate. And one doesn’t like it up one one tiny bit. Imho.
Just came across the following article from March 17th which says it all really:
‘Under Putin, MI6-linked BP extracted Russian oil worth £271 billion’
Britain’s flagship petroleum corporation BP pumped more than 5.5 billion barrels of Russian oil during the rule of Vladimir Putin, after his regime approved BP’s purchase of a host of lucrative assets, Declassified has found.
The oil was pumped between 2002-20 and was worth in excess of £271 billion based on average prices during the period.
Production increased markedly in the years following Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. It reached a record high of 955,000 barrels a day in 2019, the year after the Salisbury poisonings.
https://declassifieduk.org/under-putin-mi6-linked-bp-extracted-russian-oil-worth-271-billion/
And just for the record – and as I’ve said on here before – I have no doubt whatsoever that the whole Salisbury episode was staged, and for numerous reasons. Apart from anything else, is it even remotely plausible that Putin would have an assassination attempt carried out two days before the ‘celebrations’ to mark one hundred days to go to the World Cup Football, which Russia was hosting for the first time, and just three months or so before the tournament kicks off.
There won’t be any peace any time soon because at this moment both sides look for victory, not peace.
I cannot believe the west are still pushing on with the war, killing and destruction and not urge peace talks. They obviously see ukranian lives as just cannon fodder for their bigger goal of regime change in Russia!
NATO chief says Ukraine “can win this war”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-nato-says-ukraine-can-win-this-war/
And now Nato is going to expand right during this war with Finland and Sweden, how would that help anything right now?!
@Jack. If the Putin regime withdrew its forces from the sovereign territory of Ukraine, the war would be over. (Though repatriation of people kidnapped by the RA and reparations for the wanton destruction visited on Ukraine by the RA would be next.)
Pending that withdrawal, the Putin regime is solely responsible for “still pushing on with the war, killing and destruction”.
Don’t you agree?
If Ukraine honoured the Minsk II agreement that they signed ( with France and Germany as guarantors ) the war of today would not of started .. mid February the osce recorded approximately 1400 explosions in Donetsk in one night ( this is from their website – I used to often visit )
John Kinsella
That is a misunderstanding of the conflict, the people in Donbas that have been attacked past 8 years will be left unprotected if Russia remove troops today. That is why a peace agreement is needed that give more power to the people in these regions,
Russia offered a deal with Nato/US/Ukraine before the war for Ukraine to be a neutral (not to mention the warnings past 50 or so years!), they said no but the solution of this war will end with just that, that Ukraine become a neutral nation.
‘Pending that withdrawal…’ etc says John K, knowing full well that Putin invaded Ukraine because the West refused to address Russia’s security concerns, and so they were forced to do it the hard way so as to force Ukraine/Nato to do so. Which is EXACTLY what the West intended and wanted. In other words, the West had no problem with all the death and destruction and devastation and carnage that would ensue in their quest to destroy Russia economically.
And if and when they succeed in their goal, then they can move on to China.
“If the Putin regime withdrew its forces from the sovereign territory of Ukraine, the war would be over.”
In exactly the same way as WWI would have been over in 1914 if Britain had withdrawn its forces from mainland Europe. Think how many lives that would have saved.
Why can’t you, Jack? Slavs are killing Slavs and Raytheon/Lockheed-Martin are riding the gravy train. This is too good to be true.
A peace agreement at home here is what we need as our coup state and dictator Bozo and cabal of the cabinet, media and security services are further revealed today. As I have said for years Corbyn was ousted by a fix to avoid an actual coup from Downing Street as Treasonous DD said years ago when JC first got to become Labour Leader – ‘he threatens all our plans’.
What’s Kit got to say about it
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/05/15/operation-leaked-emails-intelligence-coup-boris-johnson/
I look forward to CM’s elaboration.
Largely a big nuttin’. Dearlove & Co wanted rid of May and succeeded. They wanted Johnson in and succeeded. They wanted Brexit on WTO grounds but Johnson or anyone else for that matter couldn’t deliver that suicide pill.
Only remaining point of interest is that they’re still sniffing around Truss and Patel. Be very, very afraid.
It’s the stuff between the lines that Kit has obviously left out that is highlighted for me. Does he just have a selected set of emails with the Jolly Ole English Aristo Buccaneer Spirit and Intrigue Buffons from an anonymous source (CIA? to ready the diversion for the massive failure in Ukraine and capture of the top generals?)
There is some element of throwing a sacrificial goat – Evelyn ? Bozo the clown strapped in to his ejector sit anyway. The whole language of correspondence; The petty amounts of money and spaffing and sniffing with bourgeois tax dodgers for a few grand?
If Kit has the whole caboodle than I want to hear about DeeDee’ plots and the plottters from Thatcher to Corbyn and against the Speaker.
There is not much as you say from one single mention of Maggie ‘coming to our side’ and mentions of the usual odious toaddies like IDS, who miraculously survived in his seat by the last minute finding of a thousand or so postal votes , ALL for him and none for his challenger!
If these are criminally chargeable actions – who exactly is going to be the honest cop? There is a LOT that KK’s piece exposes and hides like the proverbial Elephant in the room.
According to Lord Barwell of Croydon, DG, rather than shadowy conspirators with links to the security services, the person most responsible – if inadvertently – for our (relatively) hard Brexit was none other than Keith Starmzy – as amusingly detailed by his biographer, Oliver Eagleton, in conversation with Aaron Bastani.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7gqvdJSOBw
The relevant bit starts at 58:00 if you’re short on time – but the rest of it is well worth a listen, imho.
(Thanks to ‘David’ on the previous comments thread for the link)
Sounds like the fwensic one surpassed himself in those negotiations. Question is why Tories themselves have connived for so long in the fiction of him being a person of utmost integrity. They don’t have to make anything up about this guy, just tell the truth.
Thanks for your reply Carl. I believe that Lord (Gavin) Barwell is still a Tory, so he seems not to have got the memo. Anyway, in spite of saying he’ll resign as Labour leader if he gets fined by Durham Police, Sir Keith’s still the favourite to be the next PM on Betfair, albeit at odds of circa 11-2 (assuming you don’t count the weird shit going with Esther McVey, which must be some glitch in the algorithm).
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister-betting-29513080
But **** me with a fish-fork, is that really Tom Tugendtwat who’s fourth favourite at 10-1?! I also note that Andy Burnham – who seemingly has been dignified as Andrew Burnham – is the second-favourite member of the Labour Party to be the next PM at 49-1, despite not currently being an MP – and Corbyn is at 69-1 despite not currently being in the PLP.
Still, if you’ve got two grand or so lying around, you could always have a cheeky lay on ‘Tobia Ellwood’ to make £23 – and if TT’s mate Tobias Ellwood somehow becomes the next PM, just say: “Who’s Tobia Ellwood? I don’t know any Tobia Ellwoods. I want my money back! You’ll be hearing from my forensic lawyers.” Probably a better return than most savings accounts these days. Nothing I write should be taken as financial advice etc.
Barwell’s story has never been mentioned by the Tories or their media, any more than Starmer’s binning of his leadership pledges or being puppeted by Epstein’s amigo. Recall all the Tory outrage though when Johnson dared to mention Starmer’s protection of Jimmy Savile. Maybe you haven’t noticed any of this. I confess I haven’t noticed any significant difference between Starmer and the likes of Tugenhat or Elwood.
Thanks again for your reply Carl. It could well be that the Tories don’t want Starmzy replaced as Labour leader, seeing as there’s a general election coming up in two years. Compared to people like Wes Streeting & Lisa Nandy, he doesn’t come across as that likeable with the general public. After all, in the recent local elections Labour could only gain 22 councillors in the whole of England (compare this to the 1800 they gained under Blair in 1995), and this was in the heat of the Tories’ Partygate shenanigans – with his own related peccadillo then only being covered by the Sun & the Hate Mail, most of whose readers either vote Tory or don’t vote in local elections anyway.
LA – I have posted many times about the Great Knight Dope – Keith. Sucker maker of all genuine democratic socialists, surkeir.
The moments of undeniable truth were when he imposed a conference resolution demanding a second referendum – which basically undermined all these traditional Labour voters who had been railroaded into the BrexShit voting because of years of politically imposed Austerity. The Red wall was going to vote traditionally until then.
The second significant point was during the election when Labour was gaining traction with its manifesto and the NHS. The secret report that detailed its privatisation was announced at a surprise press conference; keith looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, he didn’t say a single word on that gotcha document and departed hastily before the event finished. Didn’t mention at all after that.
Immediately on suckering the Labour voters as their GKD, he immediately sidelined the next most popular candidate and got rid of many others and banned Corbyn from the Labour Party! Buried the AntiSemitism report and the shenanigans of the NEC in losing the election, twice!
And has made the grassroots party a Blairite redoubt again fully helped by the massed MSM mockingbirds of Empire.
He was installed at the CPS by the Blairites neocons to protect from the Iraq war inquiry and possible charges. He buried a lot, oversaw the ‘don’t you dare’ warning to Swedish prosecutors who knew there was no rape charges against Assange , etc, he is simply a grave digger often burying victims alive, as Assange is.
That is Keith for you. He used to be a good footballer as a kid apparently and should have made a career of it. His spiffy haircut would obviously made him a star in its own right ?
A voice that echos with our hosts “bundle” …with a small twist …”that Ukraine gives up Crimea permanently, allows autonomy or independence for occupied areas of Donbas, and becomes neutral by forswearing NATO membership.” https://unherd.com/thepost/humiliating-russia-is-not-good-foreign-policy/
The UnHerd piece makes another valid comment.
“After this deal (Minsk2) the U.S. went on about “ironclad support” and held out the prospect of NATO membership. This was gross negligence, not just because Ukraine prospective NATO membership was at once a chimera and provocative to Russia, but because it tempted Kyiv’s belief that western support would prevent the need for painful compromise”
In my view, another worthwhile contribution arguing for a peace compromise, not a warmongering disaster fest…_
“By the west refusing to honor agreements they made, Astana 2010, Istanbul 1999, NATO not moving 1 inch closer to Russia, the Budapest agreement, they have made negotiating a peaceful solution impossible. Only fools would waste time making an agreement with parties that refuse to honor their commitments. The west has made war the only possibility.”
Hat tip to Dachaguy commenting in Zerohedge on Medvedev’s gloomy prognostication:
1. A number of global supply chains of goods will collapse, a major logistical crisis is possible, including the collapse of foreign airlines, which are banned from flying over Russian territory.
2. The energy crisis will intensify in those states that have imposed “shooting in their own feet” sanctions on the supply of Russian energy carriers, further growth in fossil fuel prices will continue, and the development of the digital economy in the world will slow down.
3. A full-fledged international food crisis will come with the prospect of starvation in individual states.
4. A monetary and financial crisis is possible in some countries or communities of countries, associated with the undermining of the stability of a number of national currencies, galloping inflation and the destruction of the legal system for protecting private property.
5. New regional military conflicts will arise in those places where the situation has not been peacefully resolved for many years or the significant interests of major international players are ignored.
6. Terrorists are becoming more active, believing that the attention of Western authorities today is diverted to a showdown with Russia.
7. New epidemics will begin, caused by the rejection of honest international cooperation in the sanitary and epidemiological sphere or by direct facts of the use of biological weapons.
8. There will be a decline in the activities of international institutions that have not been able to prove their effectiveness in the course of settling the situation in Ukraine, such as, for example, the Council of Europe.
9. New international alliances of countries based on pragmatic rather than ideological Anglo-Saxon criteria will be formed.
10. As a result, a new security architecture will be created, in which de facto, and then de jure, the existing realities are recognized:
a) the weakness of Westernized concepts of international relations such as “Order based on rules” and other senseless Western junk;
b) the collapse of the idea of an American-centric world;
c) the presence of interests respected by the world community in those countries that are in an acute stage of conflict with the Western world.
Finland and Sweden to apply for membership of the 30-nation Nato alliance.
Their membership is expected to be waved through, as Turkish objections will no doubt be overcome. Erdoğan is simply leveraging the situation to extract certain concessions.
Surely such expansion should require public referenda in all existing member nations due to the defence implications/obligations that are inherent to it. It’s another example of elites bypassing European electorates. I believe expansion eastwards would never have happened had electorates had their say. Look at how the Netherlands rejected a closer trade and defence treaty with Ukraine in a referendum held in 2016 – Two-thirds of voters there opposed the political, trade and defence treaty.
I fully understand the current logic in Finland and Sweden, what Russia has done has scared people and undermines basic trust. But is being closely tied to Washington’s often hawkish foreign and security policies better than their current status? The US would never delegate, in part or whole, its foreign policy decisions to Europe. Membership inevitably has implications for democracy too; as once established, parties and politicians opposing NATO or NATO membership, are seen as the ‘enemy within’ by the military/security establishment.
Do most (any) countries have referendums before joining military alliances?
Do people in England (or Scotland) not trust your Government to negotiate on your behalf?
The US deffo doesn’t have referendums before signing treaties though the Senate must “Advise & Consent”.
Here in Ireland the Oireachtas must approve any treaty AFAIK.
I trust everything the British government, US Senate and Irish Oireachtas do. Good people.
I think the current thinking, based on Irish Supreme Court rulings, is that for Ireland to join NATO would require a referendum. The reasons being that any treaty that might limit a future government’s ability to exercise its own foreign policy would require a referendum. The Irish Constitution gives the power of conducting international relations solely to the executive unless there is a charge to public funds in which case any treaty must be approved by the Dail also. The best review I have found so far references the various Irish Supreme Court’s rulings.
https://verfassungsblog.de/neutrality-and-the-irish-constitution/
“Therefore, a crucial factor is whether any impugned international agreement creates legal obligations that fetter the discretion of future Governments in their conduct of international relations”
I guess we’ll see what transpires over the next few years. I also expect any attempt to join NATO will be rigorously challanged in the courts at all stages of such a process.
You’ve made one statement where you say ‘did opponents of independence/succession from Ukraine have the opportunity to present their case’ and in another statement you say ‘do most/any countries have referendums before joining a military alliance , I could be missreading your statements but there seems inconsistency in your view
So why did UK held 11 referendums since 1973? Don’t the Brits trust their government enough?
Comparison with the US does not really work for couple of reasons. The US Constitution was written when foreign politics were of low importance, thus the power to sign treaties was given to POTUS, provided 2/3 of the Senate agreed (Article 2 Section 2). However, in the USA at least POTUS is elected directly by the public (albeit via the silly electoral college mechanism, but still this is direct public vote). And in UK nobody elected Boris Johnson.
“So why did UK held 11 referendums since 1973?”
They did? I can only remember 3 UK-wide ones, EEC, EU, AV.
Yuri,
Referendums have no relevance to UK constitutional matters. They are used as a way of getting around Parliament, which is the only body that can make laws (give or take those silly and increasingly-popular laws that give Ministers wide powers to make “regulations”).
The UK people don’t call referendums; they are called by governments.
No UK Prime Minister has ever been elected by the people; that’s not how it works here.
John
In short, God puts increase in trade and decrease in usury. What is the meaning of usury? Basically it means counting your chickens before they are hatched. Making the assumption that property for example will never have negative equity and will always rise in value faster than the interest incurred on the debt. And you will live long enough to repay it.
Strictly speaking, currency value is manipulated to stabilise Western economies, so instead of hatchable eggs we have dry albumen.
In other words I agree with you, that Russia and China are able to de-stabilise Western economies on Multiple fronts, Syria, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. If this keeps happening, and if Western currencies are destabilised, by rival currency exchanges then the dry albumen / interest manipulation can’t hatch chickens.
When the 1930s financial meltdown occurs the West will collapse. Our local Muslim Radio station Unity FM has a new slogan ” Taking Over “. And yes, they do mean they are taking over from our defunct Western system. For Real.
Did Finland not sign a treaty after WW2 undertaking to remain neutral in perpetuity if its sovereignty was returned to it after its defeat as Hitler’s ally? If Ukraine is a red line for Russia, so is Finland. Russia warned it would dismantle Ukraine. Why would Finland renege on its obligations to invite its own destruction?
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[ Mod: There is an ongoing discussion of the 1948 treaty earlier in this thread, and you’re welcome to add your contribution there. ]
Moderator, Thank you very much. Very helpful. This is a question where Mr Murray’s particular expertise would come into its own. I’ve got myself in awful tangles trying to work out what treaties say what and which treaties supersede which…
I don’t see Russia giving back the Donbass. I don’t think the majority of the population there would wish them to either.
The country needs the split to move forwards.
A novel idea; why not have a plebiscite supervised by the OSCE and the UN – after the RA leaves.
Ukrainian population not in the East and South, ( where Russia will rebuild and honor pensions and services ) have a gloomy near future. The EU has betrayed them as US UK Nato has used them. They can’t travel live and work in EU, only as refugees. Already Poland which has the bulk, we are seeing problems for them, only to escalate. Forty million population total before the war. Expect millions of refugees EU ! The EU “standing by Ukraine” what Rank Hypocrisy.
As per the 2001 Ukrainian census 17% of the country considered themselves to be Russian , the majority live in the east , with anti-Russian language laws passed , victory day symbols banned it seems an obvious conclusion based on what I read and what I’m told as to who the majority want to be or not want to be ruled by in Donbass
“– after the RA leaves.”
…but before or after the Ukranian army arrives?